The Ranger Rundown: Rangers Archives

March 06, 2010

Can Michael Young reach 3,000 base hits?

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan answered the question thusly:

Does Michael Young have a realistic shot at 3,000 career hits?
-- Maggie W., Burleson, Texas
Yes. Young, who turned 33 last October, has 1,662 career hits. Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, comparable as a hitter to Young, had 1,561 hits in eight full seasons after turning 33. Craig Biggio had 1,380 hits in eight seasons after turning 33. But there are also many players who had numbers similar to Young at this point in his career and ultimately fell well short of 3,000 hits. So much depends on Young staying healthy because physical issues have kept him from getting 200 hits in each of the past two seasons.

Two weeks later, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News expanded on Young-for-3,000 possibility with comparisons to Barry Larkin, Craig Biggio, Julio Franco, and, most notably, Paul Molitor.

For my part, I began examining the likelihood of Young reaching 3,000 hits soon after Sullivan’s article, then let it slide because of my real job. Once Grant added his two cents, I hurriedly finished my research for a March 1st post. Nope… work and Cat Search 2010 consumed another week. So, at last…

Here’s the 3,000 Hit Club minus Cap Anson, whose inaugural season predates the National League and ended in 1897:

Player (age)	Career Hits	Debut Age	Hits thru Age 23 Season	Hits thru Age 32 Season	Hits after Age 32 Season	Age of Last Season as Qualifier	Age of Last Season
Michael Young	-	24	0	1662	-	-	-
Pete Rose	4256	22	309	2152	2104	42	45
Ty Cobb	4189	18	959	2713	1476	40	41
Hank Aaron	3771	20	718	2434	1337	41	42
Stan Musial	3630	20	584	2223	1407	41	42
Tris Speaker	3514	19	547	2232	1282	39	40
Honus Wagner	3420	23	81	1751	1669	42	43
Carl Yastrzemski	3419	21	529	1952	1467	42	43
Paul Molitor	3319	21	467	1751	1568	41	41
Eddie Collins	3315	19	487	1981	1334	38	43
Willie Mays	3283	20	352	2033	1250	40	42
Eddie Murray	3255	21	526	2021	1234	40	41
Nap Lajoie	3242	21	451	1909	1333	40	41
Cal Ripken	3184	20	569	2087	1097	40	40
George Brett	3154	20	544	1967	1187	40	40
Paul Waner	3152	23	180	2036	1116	36	42
Robin Yount	3142	18	871	2407	735	37	37
Tony Gwynn	3141	22	149	1864	1277	38	41
Dave Winfield	3110	21	307	1761	1349	41	43
Craig Biggio	3060	22	140	1680	1380	41	41
Rickey Henderson	3055	20	553	1888	1167	39	44
Rod Carew	3053	21	428	2085	968	39	39
Lou Brock	3023	22	115	1808	1215	38	40
Rafael Palmeiro	3020	21	257	1792	1228	39	40
Wade Boggs	3010	24	0	1784	1226	38	41
Al Kaline	3007	18	880	2228	779	39	39
Rbto. Clemente	3000	20	554	2238	762	37	37
Average	-	20.7	462	2,030	1,267	39.5	41.1
Median	-	21	487	2,001	1,264	40	41

The breakdown of their careers indicates several serious obstacles to Young’s attempt to join them:

1. Recall that Young did not join Texas as a fully assembled 200-hit machine. Drafted as a 20-year-old out of UC Santa Barbara, he needed nearly a full season at each level of the minors above rookie-ball. Aside from a tiny sip of coffee in 2000, Young’s Major League career didn’t commence until 2001, his Age 24 season. During 2001-2002, his Age 24 and 25 seasons, he batted a meager .257/.304/.390. He spent April 2002 time-sharing second base with Frank Catalanotto, after which Little Cat’s shift to four-corner super-sub initiated Young’s seven-year quasi-Iron Man streak.
The late and tepid start is obviously problematic. Wade Boggs is the only member of the 3,000-hit club to collect his first hit during his Age 24 season. The average age was 20.7, the median 21. The non-Boggs contingent accumulated an average of 462 hits before their Age 24 seasons. Others with relatively modest starts were Wagner (81), Lou Brock (115), Tony Gwynn (149), and Paul Waner (180).

2. Because of the above, Young’s 1,662 hits through his Age 32 season trail every member of the 3,000-hit club at the same stage in his career. Closest are Craig Biggio (1,680), Paul Molitor (1,751), and Honus Wagner (1,751).

3. On average, members of the 3,000-hit club collected 1,267 hits subsequent to their Age 32 season. Young needs 1,338, a figure that only seven of the 26 members attained. Thus, even among this group of baseball’s most elite hitters, Young must perform better than average.

4. If Young wants to achieve 3,000 hits before turning 40, he’ll need to average 191 for the next seven seasons. In the near future, he has a reasonably good chance to do so. Come mid-decade, he’s bucking ridiculous odds. Only three players have achieved the more economical sum of 160 hits during their Age 37, 38 and 39 seasons: Pete Rose, Tris Speaker, and Sam Rice (who actually didn’t reach 3,000). The combination of bat speed, stamina and good health at that age is extraordinarily rare.

So, given the unfavorable comparisons with those who achieved 3,000 hits, let’s examine Young in terms of the subsequent performance of players with similar careers through Age 32. I compiled a list of all hitters with at least 831 hits (one-half Young’s total) by the age and created a least-squares ranking using hits through each player’s Age 32 season, starting age of career, hits per game, and batting average. I also included (with less emphasis) batting average on balls in play, rate of walks plus HBP, and isolated power, all of which help to eliminate batters with extremely dissimilar hitting profiles. Without them, the list includes strange comparables like Jeff Bagwell.

A handful of the closest comparables (Jack Tobin, Babe Herman) were already done as regulars by the time they turned 32, so I manually deleted them. Everyone on this list qualified for the batting title for at least one more season, almost always more. Finally, I deleted active players. (Okay, the listed Garret Anderson is still active. But not very.) Note that this list isn’t akin to Bill James’s Similarity Scores. I’m not seeking the Young’s best overall matches, just for a specific set of characteristics.

The most similar 25, in order:

Player	Hits thru Age 32 season	Hits / Game	Debut Age	Batting Average	Career Hits	Hits after Age 32 season	Age of Last Season	Age of Last "Good" Season	Age of Last Season as Qualifier
Michael Young	1662	1.23	24	.302	-	-	-	-	-
Julio Franco	1605	1.17	23	.302	2586	981	48	46	38
Willie McGee	1548	1.17	23	.298	2254	706	40	38	34
Bob Meusel	1565	1.21	23	.311	1693	128	33	31	33
Kirby Puckett	1812	1.31	24	.321	2304	492	35	35	35
Bernie Williams	1629	1.18	22	.305	2336	707	37	33	36
Paul Molitor	1751	1.22	21	.300	3319	1568	41	40	41
Mark Grace	1514	1.17	24	.309	2445	931	39	37	37
Lou Brock	1808	1.18	22	.291	3023	1215	40	38	40
Bill Madlock	1557	1.16	22	.317	2008	451	36	36	34
Ken Boyer	1531	1.12	24	.296	2143	612	38	37	35
Dave Parker	1479	1.14	22	.305	2712	1233	40	39	40
Will Clark	1667	1.10	22	.300	2176	509	36	36	36
Jim Bottomley	1727	1.24	22	.325	2313	586	37	32	36
Garret Anderson	1766	1.20	22	.299	2501	735	37	32	37
Edd Roush	1732	1.21	20	.330	2376	644	38	36	36
Zack Wheat	1738	1.14	21	.302	2884	1146	39	39	37
Sam West	1503	1.10	22	.303	1838	335	37	35	33
Stan Hack	1581	1.15	22	.304	2193	612	37	36	35
Wally Moses	1438	1.20	24	.302	2138	700	40	38	34
Buddy Myer	1692	1.16	21	.302	2131	439	37	36	34
Gee Walker	1450	1.21	23	.310	1991	541	37	29	36
HR Baker	1510	1.19	22	.311	1838	328	36	33	33
Craig Biggio	1680	1.09	22	.292	3060	1380	41	35	41
Dick Groat	1636	1.16	21	.293	2138	502	36	33	35
Tony Lazzeri	1675	1.09	22	.297	1840	165	35	35	33
Average	1624	1.17	22.2	.305	2330	706	38.0	35.8	36.0
Median	1629	1.17	22	.302	2254	612	37	36	36

Note: A "Good" season in the table signifies at least 100 plate appearances and a batting average and on-base percentage above the park-adjusted league average.

Both of Sullivan’s comparisons and most of Grant’s appear on my list. Barry Larkin’s 190 fewer hits than Young, higher walk rate and “poor” .306 BABIP (because he struck out so infrequently) create a slightly less valuable comparison in my system. What I take from this set of players:

1. Three of Young’s 25 most similar hitters reached 3,000 hits: Molitor, Bagwell, and Lou Brock. As noted, all began their Year 33 seasons with more hits than Young.

2. Among those most similar to Young, only seven reached 2,500 hits, and five actually departed with less than 2,000. A search on “Bob Meusel,” famous for following Ruth and Gehrig in the Yankee lineups of the 1920s, reveals the epithets “lazy,” “indifferent,” and “unpopular,” three words never appended to Young. Meusel’s last good season came at Age 31, and by 33 he was done. Meusel aside, most of these players reached their mid-thirties in respectable form, but very few remained healthy and effective thereafter.

3. The average batter collected only 706 hits after his Age 32 season. Molitor (1,568) and Biggio (1,380) are dramatic outliers and the only two listed to surpass the 1,338 hits needed by Young.

4. Young will be fulfilling the final year of his five-year, $80 million contract as a 36-year-old. 12 of the 25 hitters most similar to Young failed to accumulate enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in their Age 36 seasons. That is to say, they were hurt, ineffective, or (in a few cases) already retired.

Michael Young has the second-most hits in baseball during the last seven years (trailing Ichiro). Better yet, his 1,416 hits during his Age 26-32 seasons are the sixth-most in MLB history, the others in an illustrious top ten being Heinie Manush, Boggs, Puckett, Rose, Harry Heilmann, Musial, Carew, and Rogers Hornsby. Despite those accomplishments, he’s highly unlikely to reach 3,000. Bill James’s “Favorite Toy” tool grants him an 18% chance. With no disrespect to Young, I would give those odds.

Posted by Lucas at 05:31 PM

December 04, 2009

Minitrue

Yes, please. If Texas can get someone to trade for a pitcher with a "3.67 ERA in a tough park in AL" instead of who he really is, that would be doubleplusgood.

Posted by Lucas at 12:07 PM

November 26, 2009

On Millwood

On July 2nd, just before the season’s midpoint, Kevin Millwood owned a sparkling 2.80 ERA and had already thrown 119 innings. This performance, after an aggregate 4.89 ERA and about 93 innings per half-season in Texas, was cause for celebration and a primary factor in Texas’s early-season division lead. In previous years Millwood had been dogged by minor injuries as well as questions regarding his conditioning. Last winter, Millwood reportedly worked himself into premium shape. (Roughly half of MLB’s employees get puff pieces about their strength and stamina during the news-starved winter, but in this case it appeared to be true.) Might Millwood make the All-Star team? Might he earn some down-ballot Cy Young votes?

And then, the backlash: How much of Millwood’s success was external, the product of a suddenly superior defense and the pejorative “luck?”

R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs: “The Pleasures Of Strand Rate,” documenting Millwood’s sudden and seemingly dubious knack for leaving runners on base. Followed by…

Rob Neyer of ESPN: “Don’t Be Fooled By Millwood’s ERA,” giving Anderson’s story a bigger stage and noting that Millwood’s .261 BABIP was the lowest of his career. Followed by…

Evan Grant of D Magazine’s now-defunct and sorely missed Inside Corner: “ESPN’s Rob Neyer Says Kevin Millwood Has Been More Lucky Than Good; I Say ‘Wake Up, Rob Neyer’,” a pointed refutation of Neyer and Anderson. Well, sort of. Grant actually concurs with much of what Neyer and Anderson wrote; mostly, he takes umbrage at the derisive term “luck.” (I’m a big fan of Grant’s work, his whole-hearted embrace of “new media,” and his willingness to engage with his audience, but this article isn’t his high point.) Supported by…

Richard Durrett, then at the Dallas Morning News: “I second Evan Grant’s Defense of Kevin Millwood,” wherein Durrett states that Millwood “is in better shape, he has a better defense, but he's also making the crucial [pitches at] the critical times. Just watch the games and you'll see that.” (Okay. “[I] watch the games” is fine for justifying why some youngster with a poor track record might still be an excellent prospect, but not so much for justifying the stratospheric strand rate of a 34-year-old with over 2,000 MLB innings. This argument is of a bygone era and reeks of smugness [if unintentionally]. In 2009, there's someone out there who's watched more of the player in question than you [yes, you, and me, too], who will capably dispute your position, and who can do so on the Interwebs with at least a modest and discerning audience. Today, "watch the games," which really means "you don't watch as many games as me," works at best one-on-one, never against the broad readership. It's a dismissal, not an argument.) Followed by…

Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball: “Kevin Millwood, Rob Neyer, Evan Grant, luck, pitching, and defense,” a lengthy rebuttal of Grant and the best thing anyone’s written about the subject (so go read it). And on the same day…

Yours truly , “Who You Callin’ Lucky?” Like Adam, I waxed meta, arguing “luck” shouldn't have a negative connotation, although, in the context of Millwood, I described luck as “a series of atypical occurrences; for example, stranding 87% of opposing runners for nearly half a season.”

(Luck, after all, works both ways. In an old fantasy column for ESPN, I argued that Brad Fullmer’s poor start in Texas was largely luck-driven and that he’d show improvement soon. Boy, did that not work out. Also, even Millwood’s detractors gave him credit: I wrote that he’d “been a revelation, a pleasure to watch, and arguably the team MVP.” Adam Morris stated that the “point of [his article] isn't to condemn Millwood. He's been a workhorse this year.” It's more fun to watch the players you care about do well, lucky or not.)

As if on cue, Millwood’s health, stamina, and ERA began to decay. A scant two months after the All-Star and Cy Young talk, the discussion devolved to whether Texas should bench Millwood so that his $12 million option in 2010 wouldn’t vest. The Rangers didn’t bench him, and in fact Millwood pitched quite well in his final three starts. That said, his second half resulted in a 5.02 ERA and fewer than six innings per start, depressingly similar to his lackluster 2007-2008.

So, barring a trade, Millwood will pitch 2010 with a "T" on his cap. What to expect? Unfortunately, for predictive purposes, I think we can pretend his best half-season in Texas never existed. I don’t doubt that Millwood’s improved conditioning, determination, etc., played some role in 2009’s first half, at least in terms of working deeper into games. But in truth, he really didn’t pitch much differently than before. In many respects, he pitched worse. He was, dare I say it, very, very lucky.

How lucky? During 2006-2008 and the second half of 2009, Millwood’s hit rate on balls in play has averaged .329 and was never lower than .306. Somehow, during the first half of 2009, it was .254, a whopping 75 points lower than his average:

While Texas’s defense did improve markedly in 2009, the only time Millwood’s BABIP has been lower than the team’s was during the first half of 2009. Millwood’s strand rate during this period is an even more of an outlier:

Displaying Millwood’s strand rate relative to his ERA better indicates how unusual his first half of 2009 was:

Concomitant to Millwood's lofty strand rate was his performance with runners in scoring position and two out. Since hits with runners on second and/or third almost always result in at least one run across the plate, short-term trends in this situation greatly influence ERA. In the previous three years, his rates in that situation were .256, .337, and .255, but during the first half of 2009, Millwood’s opponents batted 5-for-52 in two-out RISPs, a miniscule .096 average. If he’d found some ability to bear down in those situations, he lost it during the second half, as opponents went 12-for-41 (.293), approximately equal to the average of 2006-2008:

Not coincidentally, Millwood's newfound ability to work deeper into games disappeared in 2009's second half:

It’s established that a pitcher’s performance is best evidenced in strikeouts, walks, and homers. Frankly, even in light of the luck and defense requisite to Millwood’s amazing first half of 2009, from visual observation I would have expected improvement in the statistics most under his control. I saw him often and have no interest in retracting my statement that he was a pleasure to watch.

Instead, what’s remarkable about Millwood’s first half of ’09 is that his peripheral stats improved not a bit from his previous and subsequent efforts:

Actually, Millwood’s rates of homers, walks and strikeouts for all of 2009 were the worst among his four years in Arlington. In fact, aside from his 51-inning rookie season, his BB and SO rates were the worst of his 13-year career, and his 3.1% HR rate was exceeded only during his injury-plagued 2001. Astonishingly, Millwood posted his best ERA as a Ranger during what might be his worst season in the Majors. And he turns 35 next month.

Thus, Texas erred in letting his option vest, correct? Not necessarily. As noted by Fangraphs, wins (above replacement, not pitcher wins) come very dearly on the free-agent market, about $4 million per, and Millwood has averaged 2.8 wins per season during the last three years. He stands almost no chance of being a bargain but will more-or-less earn his full salary if he can duplicate the average of his 2007-2009 seasons. On the other hand, if the decline in his peripherals is irreversible, he’s an expensive, barely-above-replacement-level “ace.”

Texas, strangely enough, has some pitching depth and has countenanced trading Millwood. Though I liked the Volquez-for-Hamilton trade, it was problematic in that Volquez’s putative innings for 2008 were replaced by a not-ready-for-prime-time cast that couldn’t even offer replacement-level performance. This time, I don’t think that would happen; Neftali Feliz is ready for his close-up, Matt Harrison is healthy and throwing hard, and perhaps Guillermo Moscoso and even Eric Hurley will have a positive contribution. Still, I suppose one argument against a trade, assuming no pitching comes back, is who remains – is Texas willing to enter 2010 with Scott Feldman as its nominal ace?

Millwood is a known entity, and there’s value in a pitcher who can reach 190-200 innings with a 4.75 ERA. I’m not averse to Millwood pitching for Texas in 2010, even for $12 million, but expecting another sub-4.00 ERA, or even sub-4.50, is foolhardy.

Posted by Lucas at 02:45 AM

November 08, 2009

Texas Pitchers' Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

Once again, I've turned every Texas pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines and percentages of homers, walks and strikeouts for every Ranger pitcher who pitched at least 10 innings. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right.

Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by calculating differences in average, on-base percentage, slugging, homer rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate between each Ranger pitcher and every hitter in baseball with at least 200 appearances. It involves least squares, standard deviations and other ickiness. Two pitchers needed batters with fewer than 200 PAs: Feliz and O'Day. See below.

Pitcher	Opposing AVG / OBP / SLG - OPS	Opposing AVG+ / OBP+ / SLG+ - OPS+	HR% - BB% - SO%	Most Comparable Batters ('09 Stats Only)
N Feliz	.124 / .207 / .210 - .416	45 / 60 / 47 - 7	1.7% - 6.8% - 33.3%	Aaron Cunningham, Jair Jurrjens, Joe Blanton
D O'Day	.188 / .265 / .260 - .526	69 / 77 / 58 - 35	1.4% - 7.9% - 25.0%	David Dellucci, Johan Santana, Matt Downs
F Francisco	.214 / .276 / .364 - .639	78 / 80 / 82 - 62	3.0% - 7.4% - 28.1%	Bill Hall, Josh Fields, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
C Wilson	.234 / .325 / .326 - .651	86 / 95 / 73 - 68	0.9% - 9.9% - 26.0%	Koyie Hill, Chris Coste, Jack Hannahan
D Mathis	.244 / .297 / .363 - .659	89 / 87 / 81 - 68	2.3% - 5.8% - 14.5%	Kaz Matsui, Jose Guillen, Jody Gerut
S Feldman	.250 / .319 / .374 - .693	91 / 93 / 84 - 77	2.3% - 8.2% - 14.3%	Geoff Blum, Aubrey Huff, Jose Guillen
D Nippert	.245 / .324 / .372 - .696	90 / 94 / 83 - 77	2.3% - 9.7% - 18.0%	Elijah Dukes, Ryan Spillborghs, J.J. Hardy
T Hunter	.259 / .313 / .423 - .736	95 / 91 / 95 - 86	2.7% - 7.0% - 13.5%	Daniel Murphy, Vernon Wells, Stephen Drew
J Grilli	.216 / .321 / .412 - .734	79 / 94 / 92 - 86	1.8% - 12.4% - 23.9%	Chris Young, Clete Thomas, Jason Varitek
B McCarthy	.255 / .321 / .418 - .739	93 / 94 / 94 - 88	3.1% - 8.6% - 15.5%	Ben Francisco, Stephen Drew, Willie Aybar
TEAM	.260 / .331 / .416 - .747	95 / 96 / 93 - 89	2.8% - 8.6% - 16.5%	Ben Francisco, Aubrey Huff, Stephen Drew
K Millwood	.257 / .327 / .423 - .750	94 / 95 / 95 - 90	3.1% - 8.4% - 14.5%	Ben Francisco, Stephen Drew, Andy LaRoche
V Padilla	.286 / .360 / .419 - .779	105 / 105 / 94 - 99	2.5% - 8.8% - 12.4%	David DeJesus, Jorge Cantu, Adam Kennedy
J Jennings	.286 / .361 / .453 - .814	105 / 105 / 101 - 106	2.6% - 10.3% - 16.2%	Brian Roberts, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Holliday
E Guardado	.267 / .344 / .479 - .823	98 / 100 / 107 - 107	4.8% - 9.0% - 12.1%	Ian Kinsler, Paul Konerko, Brian McCann
D Holland	.288 / .346 / .510 - .856	105 / 101 / 114 - 115	4.3% - 7.7% - 17.5%	Michael Cuddyer, Casey McGehee, Torii Hunter
M Harrison	.316 / .376 / .500 - .876	116 / 110 / 112 - 122	3.2% - 8.1% - 12.0%	Aramis Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Michael Young
W Madrigal	.333 / .463 / .519 - .981	122 / 135 / 116 - 151	3.0% - 17.9% - 7.5%	Todd Helton, Carlos Beltran, Joe Mauer
K Benson	.340 / .421 / .598 - 1.019	124 / 123 / 134 - 157	5.3% - 10.5% - 9.7%	Joe Mauer, Pablo Sandoval, Miguel Cabrera

Yes, Feliz's opposing OPS+ was 7. Seven! Both Feliz and O'Day so greatly stifled hitters that no batters with 200 appearances are really comparable. For them, I dropped the required plate appearances to 50. Two of Feliz's top three and seven of his top ten comparable opposing batters are pitchers:

1. Aaron Cunningham (OF)
2. Jair Jurrjens (P)
3. Joe Blanton (P)
4. John Lannan (P)
5. Kevin Correia (P)
6. Jed Lowrie (IF)
7. Chad Billingsley (P)
8. Johnny Cueto (P)
9. Diory Hernandez (IF)
10. Ryan Dempster (P)

2008 list.

2007 list.

Posted by Lucas at 09:31 AM

October 30, 2009

Homegrown Starting Pitchers, Updated

A list of starting pitchers developed by AL West teams during the Wild Card era. Criteria for listing: Player originally drafted or signed by the respective team, pitched 162 innings (or one inning per team game in strike years), and not yet eligible for free agency.

Year	Texas	Los Angeles	Oakland	Seattle
2009	Scott Feldman	John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver	Trevor Cahill	Felix Hernandez
2008	-	John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver	-	Felix Hernandez
2007	-	John Lackey	Joe Blanton	Felix Hernandez
2006	-	John Lackey, Ervin Santana	Joe Blanton, Barry Zito	Felix Hernandez, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro
2005	-	John Lackey	Joe Blanton, Barry Zito	Ryan Franklin, Joel Pineiro
2004	-	John Lackey	Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	Ryan Franklin, Joel Pineiro
2003	-	John Lackey, Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn	Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	Ryan Franklin, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro
2002	-	Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn	Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	-
2001	Doug Davis	Ramon Ortiz, Scott Schoeneweis, Jarrod Washburn	Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	-
2000	-	Scott Schoeneweis	Tim Hudson	-
1999	-	-	-	-
1998	-	-	-	-
1997	Darren Oliver	Jason Dickson	-	-
1996	Darren Oliver, Roger Pavlik	-	-	-
1995	Roger Pavlik	-	-	-
1994	Kevin Brown, Kenny Rogers	-	Todd Van Poppel	Dave Fleming

Posted by Lucas at 09:40 AM

September 26, 2009

Texas's 40-Man Roster: Surprisingly Uncrunchy!

Untitled DocumentEvan Grant of D Magazine concluded his end-of-season report on Texas’s minor-league system for Baseball America on a worrisome note (subscription-only link):

The Rangers have so much minor league talent they may be facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter. That may have led them to deal catcher Manny Pina (who must be protected this winter) and outfielder Tim Smith to the Royals for righthander Danny Gutierrez.

The Rangers do indeed have plenty of farm talent, but I actually think their winter roster situation will be much less stressful than in previous years. The present roster contains several players who have virtually no future in the organization, and the list of players needing protection to avoid potential capture in the Rule 5 draft is intriguing but not especially compelling.

To elaborate, Texas currently has 44 players on its roster: 40 plus four on the 60-day Disabled List who must be reinstated. They’re categorized as follows:

Pitchers	Position Players	Pitchers	Position Players
Wage Slaves (27)		Under Contract in 2010 (3)
Eyre, Willie	Andrus, Elvis	Millwood, Kevin	Kinsler, Ian
Feliz, Neftali	Arias, Joaquin	-	Young, Michael
Harrison, Matt	Boggs, Brandon	Arbitration-Eligible (7)
Holland, Derek	Borbon, Julio	Feldman, Scott	German, Esteban
Hunter, Tommy	Cruz, Nelson	Francisco, Frank	Hamilton, Josh
Hurley, Eric	Davis, Chris	Grilli, Jason	-
Madrigal, Warner	Gentry, Craig	McCarthy, Brandon	-
Mathis, Doug	Golson, Greg	Wilson, C.J.	-
Mendoza, Luis	Murphy, David	Free Agents (7)
Moscoso, G.	Ramirez, Max	Benoit, Joaquin	Blalock, Hank
Nippert, Dustin	Richardson, Kevin	Guardado, Eddie	Byrd, Marlon
O'Day, Darren	Saltalamacchia, J.	-	Jones, Andruw
Poveda, Omar	Teagarden, Taylor	-	Rodriguez, Ivan
Strop, Pedro	-	-	Vizquel, Omar

Who on this list is likely to lose his spot this offseason?

Among the Free Agents:
Technically, all the free agents are eliminated unless they re-sign before declaring free agency. Their departures decrease the roster to 37. Blalock, Guardado and Jones are assuredly gone. Texas has intimated a desire to keep Pudge* and Vizquel around for another year. Although Texas would like to retain Byrd, someone will pay him more than the Rangers. Benoit may yet have a future with Texas, but not on a Major League deal this winter.
* Tangentially, remember when Texas’s catching depth was the envy of baseball? At the end of 2007, the Rangers had a top five of Saltalamacchia, Teagarden, Ramirez, Cristian Santana and Manny Pina. Now, Texas is considering re-upping a soon-to-be 38-year-old who has batted .270/.297/.402 during the last three years, Salty and Tea might enter 2010 fighting for a backup role, Ramirez exits 2009 not an inch closer to establishing himself, Pina is a Royal, and Santana is a left fielder with a mile-wide hole in his bat.

Among the Arbitration-Eligibles:
Arbitration offers to Feldman, Francisco, Wilson and Hamilton are assured. German and Grilli are much less likely. McCarthy… nah, Texas will keep him; his salary won’t spike too high from this year’s $650,000, and he still has options. Oh, and he might evolve into a useful pitcher. Perhaps.

Among the Wage Slaves:
Kevin Richardson will be designated (again). Arias used his last option in 2009 and has little chance of making the ’10 squad. The Rangers revealed their impression of Golson when they left him in AAA and instead purchased Gentry from AA Frisco. As for Gentry, his hold on a roster spot is tenuous. Luis Mendoza hasn’t earned an opportunity to assuage his dismal 2008. Texas has oodles of flexibility in this regard.

In sum, losing seven free agents, 1-2 arbitration-eligibles, and 2-4 indentured servants leaves 31 to 34 players on the 40-man roster.

What of the upcoming additions to the 40-man roster? The three players who assuredly would have been added this fall – Andrus, Feliz and Strop – are already on the active roster. Texas’s current Rule 5-eligibles include several intriguing names but none that absolutely demands addition. Put another way, who on this list would be selected in the Rule 5 draft and survive a year on a Major League roster? Here’s a partial list of eligible players:

Name	Pos
Alfonzo, Miguel	OF
Ballard, Michael	P
Castillo, Fabio	P
Diaz, Jumbo	P
Flores, Adalberto	P
Garr, Brennan	P
Jones, Beau	P
Kirkman, Michael	P
Osuna, Renny	IF
Paisano, David	OF
Phillips, Zach	P
Quintero, Jorge	P
Santana, Cristian	OF
Swanson, Glenn	P
Tracy, Chad	1B
Whittleman, John	3B
Yan, Johan	3B

I could make an argument in favor of perhaps seven players. I could also argue for none. In any case, I can’t imagine more than three actually being added. They increase the roster to 34-37, and the high side of that range retains several players who could be waived without the fear of them becoming the next Armando Galarraga.

For the last two years, Texas hasn’t participated in the Rule 5 draft because its roster was full. Now, the Rangers should have ample room to swipe a player if desired or claim someone off waivers. The Rangers could also sign a minor-league free agent and protect him on the 40 if deemed necessary (as with Madrigal in 2007). And, Texas can sign some free agents, albeit most likely the inexpensive kind (role players, folks denied arbitration by other teams, etc.).

Just out of curiosity, what kind of active roster can be constructed without any free agents?

Rotation: Millwood, Feldman, and three of Feliz, Harrison, Holland, Hunter, Hurley, McCarthy, maybe Moscoso, and Nippert.

Bullpen: Francisco, O’Day, Wilson, and four out of a group of Eyre, Mathis, Madrigal, and whoever doesn’t make the rotation. (Even minus Guardado and Grilli, I count 16 MLB-experienced pitchers.)

Starters: Saltalamacchia, Davis / Kinsler / Andrus / Young, Murphy / Borbon / Cruz, Hamilton

Bench: Teagarden, German, Boggs, Ramirez or Gentry or Golson or (gulp) Arias

The above squad is one way of composing the ominous “$50 million payroll” under which Texas might operate in 2010 (which, by the way, includes the final $3 million payment to one Alex Rodriguez). To be sure, it would squander the efforts of Texas’s brightest young players, who can’t forge a postseason run on their own. That said, it at least lacks gaping holes. Texas won’t have Brian Bocock as its Opening Day shortstop.

Posted by Lucas at 12:55 PM

September 19, 2009

The Downside of the Teixeira Trade

On July 31, 2007, Texas traded 1B Mark Teixeira and lefty reliever Ron Mahay for catchers Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus, and pitchers Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones. Would the Rangers make that trade again? Yes, unquestionably. Despite the frustrating lack of development from Saltalamacchia, easily the most advanced prospect at the time of the trade, the Rangers are already at the cusp of surpassing Atlanta in terms of value at the MLB level for the players it received. As of the July trade deadline, Texas trailed Atlanta by 1.3 wins above replacement (using Fangraphs methodology), 4.0 (using Win Shares), or 5.9 (Baseball Prospectus). Furthermore, the Rangers have had and will have their players under cost-effective control for several seasons, while Atlanta -- having traded Teixeira for Kotchmann for free-agent-to-be LaRoche -- will have (almost) nothing from the trade in their employ in two weeks.

That said, more than two years since the trade, the Rangers have failed to find Teixeira's replacement. Chris Davis certainly looked like The Answer during the tail end of 2008, but 2009 has been disastrous: .202/.256/.415 with a 41% strikeout rate before a demotion to AAA, a better but still inadequate .263/.299/.438 with a 30% SO rate since his return. Roughly, I'd say he needs a .625 slugging percentage to adequately offset his season-long .262 OBP; to achieve that, he'd need 39 homers instead of his present 19.

Davis isn't the only culprit, of course, only the most prominent (keeping in mind he's only 23 and should not be forsaken yet). Other hitters, many of them established and ostensibly reliable, has reached base at only a marginally better rate and have provided minimal power.

Player	PA	AB	H	R	2B+3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chris Davis	546	507	120	74	24	31	85	33	183	0	.237	.286	.469
Hank Blalock	375	351	92	46	22	15	49	19	77	0	.262	.299	.462
F. Catalanotto	160	141	39	18	8	1	9	14	10	0	.277	.354	.355
Chris Shelton	108	88	20	13	5	2	11	17	30	1	.227	.352	.352
Brad Wilkerson	95	82	20	16	5	3	12	10	25	1	.244	.326	.427
J. Saltalamacchia	91	89	19	11	7	1	7	2	27	0	.213	.231	.337
Ben Broussard	88	81	13	8	0	3	8	5	20	0	.160	.227	.272
Jason Botts	20	19	4	1	2	1	4	1	7	0	.211	.250	.474
Max Ramirez	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	.100	.182	.100
Andruw Jones	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	.200	.200	.200
TOTAL	1499	1373	329	187	67	57	187	102	386	2	.240	.295	.422

Let's reiterate for emphasis: In the two-plus years since the Teixeira trade, Texas's first baseman have batted .240/.295/.422. The non-Davis contingent, with nearly two-thirds of the plate appearances, has slugged .394. .394! Here's the performance of Texas's first basemen scaled to 162 games and compared to the average of other AL 1Bs during 2007-2009:

-	PA	AB	H	R	2B+3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Texas	665	609	146	83	30	25	83	45	171	1	.240	.295	.422
Rest of AL	665	582	157	83	36	24	90	68	113	3	.268	.347	.456
Difference	-	27	(11)	0	(6)	1	(7)	(23)	58	(2)	(.028)	(.052)	(.034)

Over the course of a season, the average non-Texas first baseman has collected 11 more hits (including six doubles but one fewer homer) and 23 additional walks.

Using a minimum of 400 plate appearances in a season, which individual AL batters have most closely imitated Texas's 1Bs during this span? Frankly, few players match well, because hitters with sub-.300 on-base percentages tend to lose their jobs.

Player	Year	AVG	OBP	SLG
Mike Jacobs	2009	.234	.304	.409
Rod Barajas	2009	.237	.269	.420
Vernon Wells	2007	.245	.304	.402
Brandon Inge	2009	.234	.321	.425
Alex Gordon	2007	.247	.314	.411
Emil Brown	2008	.244	.297	.386
Gary Matthews	2007	.252	.323	.419
Juan Uribe	2007	.234	.284	.394
Ramon Hernandez	2008	.257	.308	.406
Aubrey Huff	2009	.245	.310	.395

Huff is the only player to spend a majority of his time at first base (Jacobs has mostly DH'ed). 1Bs outside the top ten but reasonably close to Texas's aggregate performance include Lyle Overbay (.240/.315/.391 in 2007), this year's version of Huff (.253/.321/.405) and Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399).

Justin Smoak, Rangers Nation turns its lonely eyes to you (woo woo woo).

Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM

July 03, 2009

Who You Callin’ Lucky?

Evan Grant has taken umbrage to ESPN’s Rob Neyer and Fangraphs’ R.J. Anderson regarding their skepticism of Kevin Millwood’s success. Millwood is the “benefactor of an unsustainable amount of stranded runners [presently 86.8%, second best in baseball], thus keeping his ERA at a comfortable, and easily overrated, 2.64,” alleges Anderson. “Don’t be fooled by Millwood’s ERA,” asserts Neyer, citing his .261 BABIP.

Grant tells Neyer to “wake up” and further demurs:

It is very probably true that Millwood’s ability to strand runners will dip in the summer heat. After all, 86 percent is an astronomical number. But why is this viewed as a Millwood shortcoming.

Nobody is claiming Millwood’s exceptional strand rate is a shortcoming per se. Indeed, it’s a huge part of what has made him so effective. And that’s the problem. Millwood’s career strand rate is 71.5%. His best season is 79.1% in 2005, when he led the league in ERA. His present rate of 86.8%, if it holds up, would be the best in baseball since Pedro Martinez in 2000. Kevin Millwood is having a terrific season, no doubt, but Pedro Martinez he is not.

But attributing Millwood’s success to luck is asinine, first, and plainly against the crede of the stats analysts, second. Stats analysts don’t believe in luck. They believe in trends.

Frankly this statement simply isn’t true, or at least it’s misguided. “Luck” is Statspeak shorthand for a series of atypical occurrences; for example, stranding 87% of opposing runners for nearly half a season. Statheads attribute success to luck all the time. They do believe in luck in the sense that all players get lucky (or unlucky) sometimes. They don't believe in trends in the sense that luck is unsustainable in the long run.

Back to the broader point, Millwood’s performance is intriguing. His walk rate is typical for him. He’s not preventing homers exceptionally well. His strikeout rate is 14.8% the worst of his career. So, what is the source of his success?

Defense – Texas’s defense is unquestionably far better than last year.

BABIP, for better and worse – Yes, Neyer noted that Millwood’s .261 BABIP is the lowest of his career (his career BABIP is .306), which is to say, unsustainable, but I actually think Millwood might be on to something. He’s allowing fewer line drives (nearly automatic hits), more popups (automatic outs), and more grounders. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, he’s relying more heavily on his slider and changeup than ever before. Is the adjusted mix of pitches causing the beneficial change in his batted ball pattern? I can’t say, but it certainly isn’t hurting. The same applies to Millwood’s conditioning, as noted by Grant.

Luck – Yes, luck. There’s no way Millwood will continue to strand runners at such a high rate. Opposing hitters are batting .096 with two outs and runners in scoring position compared to .261 in other situations. Even if Millwood can sustain his low BABIP, he’s not going to keep retiring 90% of batters in two-out RISP situations.

Look, Millwood’s been a revelation, a pleasure to watch, and arguably the team MVP. But I’d bet his second-half ERA will be much closer to 4.00 than 2.64, and Texas will suffer a little as a result. I don’t see this as controversial or offensive. It seems pretty obvious. And I’ve watched him throw.

UPDATE: Hmmm. I googled "Kevin Millwood BABIP" and found that Yahoo's Scott Pianowski offered similar opinions, including the possible connection between his pitch selection and batted-ball outcomes, on June 27th. I didn't discover his article until after I posted mine. Scout's honor.

UPDATE 2: Lone Star Ball's Adam Morris posted a lengthier examination of Millwood that again pre-dates mine. And again, I didn't discover his article until after I posted mine. Scout's honor. I really was a Scout.

Posted by Lucas at 04:07 PM

May 07, 2009

Idle Thought

Buck Showalter's contract expires in five months.

Posted by Lucas at 11:21 PM

April 24, 2009

A Quick PitchF/X Look at Derek Holland's MLB Debut

Fastball Speed

By my count (which involved recategorizing two of 42 pitches), Derek Holland threw 37 fastballs, four sliders, and one changeup. Here's their speeds:

Yes, Holland can bring the heat. What I found interesting is that, beginning with the last pitch of the 7th inning, he didn't throw quite so hard. Whether due to early adrenaline or a late focus on command versus speed or just happenstance, the difference is real. Of his first 17 fastballs, all but three reached 95 or better. Of his last 20, all but three were below 95.

Fastballs	Overall	First 17 FBs	Last 20 FBs
Low	91.5	91.7	91.5
Median	94.0	95.9	93.7
High	97.1	97.1	96.1
Average	94.3	95.4	93.4

Pitch Location

The preceding chart is from the point of view of the catcher. Also, I've flipped the horizontal readings on lefthanded batters such that outside pitches are always to the right, inside to the left. The smaller box is the official strike zone (averaged for the varying heights of the opposing batters), and the larger one is 2.8 inches wider, the approximately width of the baseball. Splitting the wider zone into thirds, here's where Holland's pitches crossed the plate:

Horizontal Location	# of Pitches
Inside	0
Inner 3rd	2
Middle	22
Outer 3rd	4
Outside	14

Vertical Location	# of Pitches
Low	1
Lower 3rd	6
Middle	13
Upper 3rd	10
High	12

Holland almost never pitched inside, regardless of the batter's handedness, and usually worked high in the strike zone. That many high pitches isn't favorable, unless, of course, the pitcher can hit 95 with movement and mix in a slider.

Et Cetera

The plate ump was occasionally generous, once granting a strike on a pitch four inches outside the most liberal interpretation of the strike zone:

And, here's the location of Holland's slider that Aaron Hill waved at helplessly:

Posted by Lucas at 12:19 AM

April 17, 2009

How Young Is Elvis Andrus?

Elvis, 7 October 2007

Major League Baseball player Elvis Andrus would be:

The youngest player in the AAA Pacific Coast League (nearly four months younger than Neftali Feliz),

The 2nd youngest in the AA Texas League,

The 19th youngest in the high-A California League, and

The 85th youngest (out of 407) in the low-A South Atlantic League.

Posted by Lucas at 12:37 PM

April 06, 2009

It's a thin line between love and hate

Posted by Lucas at 03:15 PM

Predictions

My Computer says:

LAA 82-80
OAK 81-81
TEX 77-85
SEA 70-92

Personally, I’d like to add four wins to Seattle and two to everyone else. That said, this is an awfully weak division. Every team has serious issues. I’d give a 10% chance that the division winner finishes under .500.

I don’t share Joe Sheehan’s enthusiasm for the Athletics’ run prevention. Justin Duchscherer, even if healthy, is destined for a sharp regression. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill (like Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland) could be great MLB starting pitchers someday, but are they 2/5ths of the rotation on an 88-win team today? Brad Ziegler, closer? (The West will be much more entertaining in 2010.)

Los Angeles is missing three of its top five starters to begin the season, and its offense is nothing special. Bobby Abreu was a great pickup, perhaps the difference-maker in this division, but Kendry Morales is no Mark Teixeira. He’s not even Casey Kotchman. The Mariners won 67 Pythagorean games last year as opposed to their real 61, and some roster shuffling and internal improvement will help.

As for the Rangers: My computer has them scoring 822 runs and allowing 868, both significant declines from last year. The most at-bats lost from 2008 belong to Milton Bradley. The most new ones in 2009 will probably belong to Elvis Andrus. That’s 40 runs lost right there. I’ve got Texas with a 5.05 ERA, still the worst in baseball but better than last year’s 5.37, and fewer unearned runs surrendered. This is essentially my computer saying “this is still a bad staff, but it can’t be that bad again.” In my Hardball Times preview, written before I’d performed any computer modeling, I predicted Texas would finish within a hair of .500. That still sounds about right. I can see plenty of upside, a non-zero chance of sneaking a division title. I can also see 90 losses and a housecleaning.

My other picks are nearly identical to PECOTA; I’d hoped for more differences just for entertainment value. New York wins the East and Boston takes the wild card (PECOTA predicts the reverse). Cleveland wins the Central. New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay (a very hard-luck playoff omission with 92 wins) are the class of the league. I have the Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers in the NL, plus Atlanta as the wild card (PECOTA says Arizona). Let’s say Yankees over Dodgers in the World Series.

Posted by Lucas at 12:51 PM

February 18, 2009

Did Bradley Protect Hamilton?

Jamey Newberg says:

There’s probably a way to create splits that will show what Hamilton’s output was in the 114 games that Milton Bradley hit fourth, as opposed to the 48 games he didn’t. I bet the disparity was significant.

Quite so:

Category	Hamilton batting 3rd, Bradley 4th	Hamilton batting 3rd without Bradley or batting elsewhere
Appearances	497	207
AVG	.317	.275
OBP	.376	.357
SLG	.550	.484
BB%	8.7%	10.1%
IBB%	0.8%	2.4%

The disparity is significant; however, it doesn't prove much by itself. Correlation isn't causation. For example, Hamilton hit .341 on contact and .350 on balls in play with Bradley behind him, versus .298 and .311 without. Did Bradley's absence cause Hamilton to hit more balls directly into fielder's gloves? Doubtful. Having Bradley batting 4th probably helped Hamilton some, but it doesn't fully explain the disparity in the table.

Posted by Lucas at 01:01 PM

February 09, 2009

PECOTA Update

Last week, I ran a quick and dirty prediction of Texas's record using Baseball Prospectus's first run of PECOTA. My take: 790 runs scored, 920 allowed, 69 wins.

BP published its own standings today. Its take: 812 runs scored, 923 allowed, 72 wins.

Only Seattle, Houston and Pittsburgh are projected to win fewer games. Save us, Andruw Jones!

Posted by Lucas at 01:10 PM

February 02, 2009

Ron Washington Perplexes Me Sometimes

Per the Dallas Morning News,

The reality is manager Ron Washington believes [Josh] Hamilton is better suited as the No. 3 hitter, batting behind Michael Young. It isn't that Washington doesn't believe Hamilton can handle the cleanup spot. He just thinks Hamilton can do even more damage hitting behind Young and Ian Kinsler.

Numerous studies have shown that batting order doesn’t matter much. Certainly, the difference between batting Hamilton third or fourth isn’t huge. That said, if I’m the manager, I agonize over those decisions, because it’s my job to gain every possible advantage, no matter how small. No problem there.

Here’s the problem:

"The No. 4 guys gets off-speed stuff," Washington said on Monday. "Look back and Milton handled more off-speed stuff than fastballs. Hamilton handled more fastballs than breaking balls because they didn't want to put Hamilton on base and let Milton hurt them."

This is not true! Proportion of fastballs seen, per Fangraphs:

Name	FB%
Frank Catalanotto	66.6%
Milton Bradley	65.9%
Ramon Vazquez	63.8%
Marlon Byrd	63.2%
Gerald Laird	62.2%
Brandon Boggs	61.2%
Michael Young	59.5%
David Murphy	57.7%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	57.4%
Ian Kinsler	57.2%
Christopher Davis	55.3%
Josh Hamilton	53.4%
Hank Blalock	53.2%

Among Rangers with at least 200 at-bats, Bradley saw a greater proportion of fastballs than anybody but Frank Catalanotto. Hamilton saw fewer fastballs than anybody but Hank Blalock. Based on Hamilton’s playing time, the difference between him and Bradley is 328 fastballs, about two per game. That’s significant.

Again, it doesn’t matter too much. But I’m not reassured that Washington might be making batting-order decisions based on beliefs that can be discredited with just a little internet sleuthing. This isn’t the first time that he’s bewildered me.

Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM

January 31, 2009

PECOTA Does Not Love Texas

Baseball Prospectus just released its first run of PECOTA ratings for 2009. I’m not going to print their subscription-only data, but I have performed a quick analysis to answer the question of what PECOTA thinks of the Rangers this season.

Answer: not much.

Before I divulge the results, some background. PECOTA estimates plate appearances and innings pitched for all players, but it doesn’t attempt to justify them on a team level. Many of their predictions read as “what ifs” (for example, what if Martin Perez pitched 99 innings in Arlington?). Thus, the team-wide sums are preposterous (in Texas’s case, 8,700 PA and 2,600 IP). To correct this “problem” for my purposes, I made my own estimates of plate appearances and innings but still used PECOTA’s rate estimates verbatim. I also chopped Texas’s unearned runs to 75 (a little worse than the league average) from last year’s 107.

Offensively, PECOTA understandably thinks poorly of Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel. It also predicts Taylor Teagarden will bat .209 (albeit with ample walks and power). The more pressing issue is the regression toward the mean for most of the established hitters. Only Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler merit OBPs in excess of .350. The less said about Michael Young, the better.

PECOTA, as always, hates Texas pitching. The only hurlers with sub-5.00 ERAs are relievers Frank Francisco, C.J. Wilson, Josh Rupe and Warner Madrigal. PECOTA really thinks ill of Matt Harrison, and folks like Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz aren’t projected as saviors yet.

My team-level use of PECOTA predicts Texas will score about 790 runs and allow 920. That’s worth 69 wins. Ugh.

Big caveat: One potential problem with my analysis is scaling. That is, I could do this with every team and discover that the MLB as a whole has a net deficit in runs scored versus allowed, which of course is impossible. If, for example, I discovered that the “average” team had a net deficit of 30 runs, I’d have to add about three wins to every team’s total.

You might recreate this exercise with different results, but I think the general theme is clear. PECOTA forecasts a significant decline in Texas’s offense with only modest improvement in pitching. I look forward to BP’s own team-wide PECOTA-based predictions.

Posted by Lucas at 11:52 AM

January 23, 2009

Hurley Dissected At Beyond The Box Score

Harry Pavlidis at Beyond The Box Score has used my PitchF/X-related posts from 2008 as a starting point for some very detailed analysis of Eric Hurley's early starts and awful, final start.

Check it out.

My post on Hurley's first start.
Additional analysis.
And a brief post on Hurley's final start.

Posted by Lucas at 07:02 PM

January 11, 2009

First Take On Young Situation

October 30, 2008

Congratulations, Philadelphia. Except...

...all these articles mentioning Philly's first Series title since 1980. As if that were a long time. Relative to some other team's fortune, I mean.

Posted by Lucas at 01:15 AM

October 22, 2008

Idle Thought

The first game of the 2008 World Series featured the 15th-overall pick of the 2002 draft (Scott Kazmir) versus the 17th (Cole Hamels).

The 10th pick was Drew Meyer.

Posted by Lucas at 11:32 PM

October 02, 2008

Ranger Pitcher Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

Once again, here’s a fun little game: turning every pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines for Ranger pitcher who pitched at least 10 innings and is still with the organization. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right.

Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by ranking differences in average, on-base percentage, slugging, homer rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate between each Ranger pitcher and every hitter in baseball with at least 200 appearances.

Player	Opposing AVG / OBP / SLG --OPS	Opposing AVG+ / OBP+ / SLG+ -- OPS+	HR% - BB% - SO%	Most Comparable Batters ('08 Stats Only)
F Francisco	.200 / .277 / .357 -- .634	75 / 81 / 81 -- 62	2.7% - 9.8% - 31.4%	Jeff Mathis, Sean Rodriguez, Brandon Inge
W Littleton	.265 / .363 / .338 -- .701	99 / 106 / 77 -- 83	1.3% - 10.0% - 17.5%	Julio Lugo, Jamey Carroll, Asdrubal Cabrera
B McCarthy	.244 / .312 / .427 -- .739	91 / 91 / 97 -- 88	3.2% - 8.6% - 10.8%	Pedro Feliz, Willy Aybar, Joe Crede
J Wright	.283 / .362 / .377 -- .739	106 / 106 / 86 -- 92	1.3% - 9.2% - 15.8%	Ryan Sweeney, Felipe Lopez, Nick Punto
W Madrigal	.263 / .327 / .423 -- .750	98 / 96 / 96 -- 92	2.6% - 9.1% - 14.3%	Troy Tulowitski, Willy Aybar, Ben Francisco
K Loe	.288 / .328 / .440 -- .768	107 / 96 / 100 -- 96	2.2% - 6.0% - 14.9%	Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Anderson
J Benoit	.233 / .362 / .407 -- .769	87 / 106 / 93 -- 99	2.9% - 16.7% - 20.6%	Richie Weeks, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey
V Padilla	.275 / .351 / .447 -- .798	103 / 103 / 102 -- 105	3.4% - 8.6% - 16.8%	Torii Hunter, Ryan Church, Mike Lowell
S Feldman	.280 / .349 / .464 -- .813	104 / 102 / 105 -- 107	3.4% - 8.6% - 11.4%	Mike Lowell, Torii Hunter, JJ Hardy
K Gabbard	.292 / .398 / .411 -- .809	109 / 116 / 93 -- 109	1.9% - 14.8% - 12.5%	Russell Martin, Denard Span, Ray Durham
TEAM	.280 / .362 / .455 -- .817	104 / 106 / 103 -- 109	2.7% - 9.6% - 14.8%	Derrek Lee, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu
K Millwood	.312 / .361 / .462 -- .823	116 / 106 / 105 -- 111	2.3% - 6.4% - 16.3%	David DeJesus, Orlando Hudson, Alex Rios
J Rupe	.284 / .382 / .437 -- .819	106 / 112 / 99 -- 111	2.0% - 11.7% - 13.5%	Carlos Guillen, Ray Durham, Denard Span
C Wilson	.268 / .366 / .475 -- .841	100 / 107 / 108 -- 115	3.7% - 12.6% - 19.2%	Josh Willingham, Troy Glaus, Grady Sizemore
E Hurley	.268 / .336 / .515 -- .851	100 / 98 / 117 -- 115	4.7% - 8.4% - 12.1%	Hank Blalock, Mike Lowell, Rick Ankiel
M Harrison	.300 / .358 / .520 -- .878	112 / 105 / 118 -- 123	3.2% - 8.3% - 11.3%	Vlad Guerrero, Brian McCann, Justin Morneau
D Nippert	.308 / .385 / .488 -- .873	115 / 113 / 111 -- 124	2.9% - 10.9% - 16.1%	Bobby Abreu, Andrew Ethier, Justin Morneau
L Mendoza	.343 / .405 / .523 -- .928	128 / 118 / 119 -- 137	2.2% - 7.9% - 11.1%	Ian Kinsler, Xavier Nady, Dustin Pedroia
J Jennings	.307 / .406 / .588 -- .994	115 / 119 / 134 -- 153	5.9% - 13.3% - 8.9%	Carlos Quentin, Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez
D Mathis	.381 / .459 / .577 -- 1.036	142 / 134 / 131 -- 165	2.7% - 12.5% - 8.0%	Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, Milton Bradley
T Hunter	.404 / .443 / .702 -- 1.145	151 / 130 / 160 -- 190	6.5% - 4.8% - 14.5%	Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira

2007 list

2006 list

Posted by Lucas at 10:56 AM

September 30, 2008

Foresight Is Depressing

What I wrote for The Hardball Times 2008 Preview:

"Texas has a chance at a .500 record, but catching Los Angeles is beyond hope. The Rangers will probably amble to about 77 wins as they break in the youngsters and look towards 2009."

Posted by Lucas at 11:20 PM

July 31, 2008

Eric Hurley's Fastball

Last Sunday was really ugly:

Average FB Velocity, 1st 4 starts: 90.5
Average FB Velocity, July 27: 86.2

80% Velocity Range, 1st 4 starts: 88.6-92.5
80% Velocity Range, July 27: 85.0-87.4

Posted by Lucas at 07:40 PM

July 26, 2008

Can Nelson Cruz Play Major League Baseball?

Acquired from Milwaukee as part of the Carlos Lee trade, Nelson Cruz provided scant evidence of being a Major League-caliber hitter in nearly 500 plate appearances during 2006-2007. Despite a another terrific season in AAA in 2007 (.352/.428/.698), he couldn’t crack the big-league roster this spring, and he then suffered the indignity of being unclaimed on waivers.

Since then, he’s enjoying one of the most dominant AAA seasons in recent memory. Concurrent with Marlon Byrd continuing to bat 5th or 6th despite a line 247/.327/.384, calls for another chance in the Majors have amplified from a murmur to a dull roar.

Can Nelson Cruz have a belatedly successful Major League career? Cruz turned 28 on July 1, although he’s classified as a 27-year-old in terms of the 2008 season. One method of answering this question is to compare him to other successful minor-league hitters in the same age group. We don’t want young, top prospects or greybeards. We’re looking at the guys on the fringe: failed/injured prospects and “never-weres” who suddenly erupted.

I compiled every season between 1992-2008 in which a AAA hitter aged 26-28 produced at least one of the following:

30 homers
A .600 slugging percentage (minimum 350 appearances)
>100 Runs Created (a Bill James stat measuring overall performance)

I found 51 such players (note that 2008 stats are pro-rated) and compared them to Cruz in terms of a variety of stats including rates for all extra-base hits, homers alone, walks, strikeouts, steals, and batting average. Here they are, ranked from most to least similar to Cruz:

1. Dwayne Hosey, OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Dwayne Hosey	1994	27	OF	OMA	KCR	467	.333	.420	.628	27	12.4%	5.8%	13.1%	18.2%	9.6

Note: RC/G = Runs Created per Game, indicative of number of runs nine Nelson Cruz's would score.

Which of these events is not like the others?

January 1989: Released by Chicago White Sox
May 1991: Released by Oakland
December 1991: Selected by San Diego in minor-league phase of Rule 5 draft
October 1993: Granted free agency
August 1995: Selected off waivers by Boston
October 3, 1995: Started in CF and led off 1995 American League Division Series

Entering 1994, Dwayne Hosey was a thrice-released outfielder with just enough power and speed to secure continued employment, if only the itinerant kind. Despite seven years of experience, Hosey had logged only 32 games in AAA before his career-best outburst. Still, Hosey found himself in Omaha again in 1995. He was batting .295/.363/.535 with 12 homers and 15 steals when the Red Sox selected him off waivers on August 31.

Injected into the starting lineup almost immediately, Hosey batted .338/.408/.618 in September and stole the starting CF job from Lee Tinsley (who was batting a respectable-for-the-position .284/.359/.402). On the evening of October 3, Hosey found himself in the batter’s box for the first pitch of the ALDS against Cleveland’s Dennis Martinez.

Hosey went 0-12 with two walks in the series. Boston traded Tinsley in the offseason, seemingly insuring everyday play for Hosey, but injuries and ineffectiveness (.218/.282/.333) soon forced him back to the minors. The man who led off the ALDS in 1995 would play his last MLB game only eight months later.

2. Micah Franklin , OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Micah Franklin	1998	26	OF	IWA	CHC	418	.329	.423	.655	5	13.6%	6.9%	14.1%	17.2%	10.4

Franklin was a 3rd-round selection (90th overall) by the Mets, who released him after two lackluster seasons in short-season leagues. Franklin hit 51 homers during the next two years, becoming enough of a prospect to warrant a late 1994 trade to Pittsburgh for Brian Hunter (the slow guy with some power, not the speed demon).

Franklin was claimed off waivers by Detroit in 1995 and traded to traded to St. Louis in 1996. Entering 1997, he’d hit 94 homers in the previous four years. He finally got a taste of the Majors that May and batted .324/.378/.500 in 27 plate appearances. It wasn’t enough to stick, and the Cardinals released him even before the season ended.

In 1998, at the age of 26 and with his 5th organization, Franklin had his career year. Chicago nevertheless declined to add him to its 40-man roster. Rather than hope for another chance to be a 5th outfielder somewhere, Franklin moved to Japan and batted .238/.348/.502 with 23 homers for the Nippon Ham Fighters in 1999. He appears to have suffered an injury plagued season in 2000, and in 2001 he returned to the US. After three more modestly successful seasons among four teams, he was done at the age of 32.

3. Calvin Pickering, 1B

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Calvin Pickering	2004	27	1B	OMA	KCR	369	.314	.444	.712	0	13.0%	9.5%	19.0%	23.0%	11.6

As a 21-year-old in 1998, Pickering batted .309/.425/.566 with 31 homers for AA Bowie. Nevertheless, the Orioles traded for 33-year-old Jeff Conine to man first and retained 40-year-old Harold Baines as the DH. Injuries and perhaps discouragement led to two lackluster seasons in AAA. During a third and better AAA campaign in 2001, Baltimore waived him, and division-rival Boston placed the winning claim.

Another injury prevented Pickering from taking the field with the Red Sox. He spent 2003 with the Mariners (cut in Spring Training), a Mexican team, and Cincinnati (cut after the season).

As an Omaha Royal in 2004, Pickering produced one of the best power surges in recent years, hitting 35 homers in 92 games and slugging .712. He received his first lengthy trial in the Majors and batted .246/.338/.500 with another seven homers in 35 games.

Come 2005, Pickering was shipped back to Omaha after just seven games (.148/.226/.259). The Royals gave most of their 1B at-bats to 37-year-old Matt Stairs. Not that Stairs was a bad player, but the Royals were dead last in the AL homers and lost 102 games. If Pickering were a total bust, then the Royals lose… 105? So what. The Royals also bestowed significant playing time to the likes of Joe McEwing, Denny Hocking, and especially Terrence Long. Just a stupidly, stupidly assembled and operated club.

Anyway… Pickering batted .275/.384/.528 with another 23 homers in Omaha. He spent 2006 in Korea and has logged some time in the independent leagues lately.

4. Dallas McPherson, 3B

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Dallas McPherson	2008	27	1B	ABQ	FLA	389	.294	.404	.666	12	12.6%	8.7%	15.4%	30.8%	10.0

Drafted 57th overall in 2001, McPherson quickly established himself as a premier hitting talent. McPherson batted .310/.401/.596 between high-A and AA as a 22-year-old, after which Baseball America ranked him the 33rd best prospect in baseball. He topped himself in 2004, blasting 40 homers and slugging .670, and jumped to 12th on BA’s list. Still, even with Anaheim 3B Troy Glaus frequently injured, McPherson didn’t receive more than a brief look in the Majors.

With Glaus gone in 2005, McPherson had a full-time gig but couldn’t take advantage. His walk-strikeout ratio had decayed as he climbed the minors, and in Anaheim it collapsed. That and injuries limited him to 101 games and a .296 on-base percentage through 2006. He missed the entire 2007 season with back problems, and the Angels non-tendered him last December.

McPherson signed with the Marlins, but new injuries prevented him from making the club. Now healthy and in the extremely hitter-friendly environment of Albuquerque, McPherson is presently battling Nelson Cruz for the most homers in professional baseball. Too bad Florida doesn’t have a DH. His 32% strikeout rate and good-but-not-great-for-Albq .294 average call into question whether he’ll make enough contact to succeed in the Majors, but he’ll definitely get another chance.

5. Felipe Crespo, 1B/OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Felipe Crespo	1999	26	1B	FRN	SFG	463	.332	.445	.616	17	12.1%	5.2%	16.8%	15.8%	10.1

Crespo was drafted 95th overall in 1991 by the Blue Jays as a 2B with good contact and OBP skills. Crespo advanced to AAA by 1995 and played in 34 games for Toronto during 1996-1997.

Of the ten players with seasons most similar to Nelson Cruz, Crespo is one of only three to spend an entire season in the Majors (the others are Brian Daubach and Lee Stevens). Unfortunately for Crespo, he’d switched nearly full time to the outfield and had no chance of supplanting Toronto’s young and spry trio of Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz Jr., and Shawn Green (this was 1998, remember). Crespo had 153 plate appearances in 66 games and batted .262/.342/.362, admirable considering the often lengthy gaps between at-bats.

Toronto released Crespo during 1999’s Spring Training. As a 26-year-old Fresno Grizzly, he inexplicably thumped 24 homers and slugged .616. He previous bests were 13 and .493. In 2000, he again lasted an entire year in the Majors as an infrequently used 1B/OF, batting .290/.351/.443.

In 2001, he abruptly stopped making contact, perhaps party due to plantar fasciitis. Crespo fluttered through Philadelphia, Japan’s Yomuiri, and AAA Louisville before retiring at Age 31 in 2004.

6-10:

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Brian Daubach	1998	26	OF	CHL	FLA	577	.316	.411	.634	9	14.6%	6.1%	13.9%	19.8%	9.7
Joe Dillon	2004	28	3B	ABQ	FLA	449	.325	.394	.665	12	15.6%	6.7%	10.2%	18.9%	9.8
Jose Fernandez	2001	26	3B	SLK	ANA	507	.338	.410	.624	9	13.4%	5.9%	10.8%	17.9%	9.5
Lee Stevens	1996	28	1B	OKC	TEX	489	.325	.405	.643	3	14.5%	6.5%	11.9%	18.4%	9.9
Roberto Petagine	1998	27	1B	IND	CIN	433	.331	.439	.617	3	12.7%	5.5%	16.2%	16.4%	10.2

The list improves for Nelson Cruz at this point. Brian Daubach and Lee Stevens both had a respectable stretch of 4-5 years after their breakout AAA seasons. Petagine was Big In Japan for five years, Fernandez for three. Dillon’s one season with Yomuiri was a disaster.

11-50:

11. Derrick White, 1998, Age 28	32. Brad Eldred, 2008, Age 28
12. Fernando Seguignol, 2003, Age 26	33. Robin Jennings, 2000, Age 28
13. Roberto Petagine, 1997, Age 27	34. D.T. Cromer, 1999, Age 26
14. Harvey Pulliam, 1995, Age 26	35. Nigel Wilson, 1996, Age 28
15. Bubba Crosby, 2003, Age 26	36. Graham Koonce, 2003, Age 26
16. Scott McClain, 1998, Age 26	37. Damon Minor, 2000, Age 27
17. Jim Tatum, 1994, Age 27	38. Chad Mottola, 1999, Age 26
18. Andy Green, 2005, Age 26	39. Doug Mientkiewicz, 2000, Age 28
19. George Arias, 1998, Age 27	40. Brian Raabe, 1996, Age 27
20. David McCarty, 1997, Age 28	41. Julio Zuleta, 2002, Age 26
21. Chad Mottola, 2000, Age 27	42. Josh Whitesell, 2008, Age 27
22. Luke Scott, 2005, Age 28	43. Rick Ankiel, 2007, Age 28
23. Val Pascucci, 2007, Age 27	44. Earl Snyder, 2004, Age 27
24. Eddie Zambrano, 1993, Age 26	45. Phil Hiatt, 1996, Age 27
25. Matt Diaz, 2004, Age 28	46. Jack Cust, 2006, Age 26
26. Kevin Witt, 2004, Age 26	47. Rod McCall, 1998, Age 28
27. Jamie D'Antona, 2008, Age 27	48. Jonathan Van Every, 2008, Age 27
28. Craig Brazell, 2007, Age 26	49. Ron Coomer, 1994, Age 28
29. Terrmel Sledge, 2003, Age 27	50. Mark Saccomanno, 2008, Age 28
30. Calvin Murray, 1999, Age 27	51. Drew Denson, 1994, Age
31. Jon Knott, 2006, Age 27	.

Conclusions:

Truly a mixed bag. Cruz’s 2008 compares favorably to a couple of guys who earned some MLB coin (Stevens and Daubach), several players who’ve succeeded at advanced ages for various reasons (Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Jack Cust), a contemporary hoping for another chance (McPherson)… and no fewer than two dozen AAAA All-Stars.

That said, Cruz is in many respects dissimilar to most players on the list. Some were already sedentary 1Bs or DHs, and few had his combination of speed, power and defensive prowess. Of the 52 players studied, Cruz ranks 1st in slugging and Runs Created per game, 2nd in home run rate, and 4th in OBP. With over a month remaining in the season, he already ranks 5th in homers and 4th in steals. Forget his age: Cruz could finish 2008 with one of the best AAA seasons in the past 17 years, period. To an extent, the operative measure isn’t “players most similar to Cruz statistically” but “players almost as good as Cruz statistically.”

On the other hand, we’ve been down this road. As mentioned, Cruz hit the cover off the ball for the Redhawks in 2007, and he has a career minor-league line of .298/.368/.540.

Cruz’s administrative status is also a huge hurdle. Traded or not, he can declare free agency if not placed on a 40-man roster after the season. Texas, or someone, will have to make a real commitment. Despite his amazing season, I’m skeptical that anyone will. Come 2009, Cruz may find himself in a new team’s Spring training facility on a minor-league deal. Or Japan.

Posted by Lucas at 03:52 PM

July 18, 2008

PitchFX On Eric Hurley: Pitch Location And Results

Eric Hurley allowed homers at a 4.4% rate in 75 AAA innings, nearly double the league average. In four MLB starts, his homer rate is 3.2%, better but still sub-par. The book on Hurley is his tendency to work high in the zone (or his inability to work low, if you prefer) results in too many fly balls, hence too many homers and other hard-hit balls.

With PitchFX, we can examine the relationship between his pitch location and opponents’ success at the plate. In this case, I’m focusing solely on balls hit into play (including homers), of which there are 75. One was a bunt single, and two have no pitch data, leaving 72 balls for study.

Caveat: Hurley hasn’t pitched enough to generate respectable sample sizes. I’m doing this exercise because I think it’s interesting, but how he’s performed so far doesn’t necessarily portend his future.

The split between high and low pitches is exactly 36:36. As shown in the graph, a few hitters have hit a ball into play on a pitch higher than the top of the strike zone, while no hitter has done so on a pitch below the bottom of the zone.

1. What type of pitch is crossing the plate high or low?

As expected, most of the high pitches are fastballs, and the low pitches contain a heavier proportion of sliders.

Pitch Height	FA	SL	CH
< 2.6'	50%	39%	9%
> 2.6'	69%	19%	11%

2. Are high pitches resulting in more fly balls?

Yes. The vertical midrange of the strike zone of hitters faced by Hurley is 2.52 feet. At 2.60 feet is a pretty strong delineation in fly ball tendency:

Pitch Height	Grounder	Line Drive	OF Fly	IF Fly
< 2.6'	33%	31%	33%	3%
> 2.6'	11%	14%	64%	11%

The ratio for all pitches is 22% grounders, 22% line drives, 48% outfield flies, and 8% infield flies.

3. Are high pitches resulting in more hits?

More home runs, yes (two on high strikes, one low). More hits, no. Opponents are batting a meager .194 when making contact on high strikes and a robust .389 on low strikes. The corresponding slugging percentages are .389 and .667.

What’s hurting Hurley most so far is a 31% line drive rate on low pitches. Opponents are batting .727 and slugging 1.000 on those liners, which sounds absurdly high but is actually near the average for the league.

Conversely, opponents are also hitting only .130 (3-for-23) on fly balls on high pitches. He’s also generated four infield flies (nearly as surely an out as a strikeout) on high pitches, only one on a low pitch.

So, Hurley should ditch the slider and concentrate on heat up in the zone where it’s safe.

Just kidding. Hurley can’t expect to turn 87% of high-strike flies into outs in the long run. Several pitchers (for example, Scott Kazmir, Rich Harden, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver) are succeeding with very low ground ball rates, but they also have extremely high strikeout rates (Kazmir, Harden) or are no worse than above-average both in walks and Ks (Baker, Weaver).

At present, Hurley has a respectable walk rate (7.4%) but a below-average strikeout rate (12.6%), and 70% of his balls in play have been liners or outfield flies. Despite his 3.57 ERA, that’s a pretty toxic brew. He’ll need some combination of more strikeouts and more grounders to succeed in the long run.

Posted by Lucas at 05:42 PM

July 14, 2008

Some Quick Research on C.J. Wilson

33 MLB relievers have received at least 10 save opportunities in 2008. Here's how C.J. Wilson ranks in various categories:

Category		Rank
Average	.258	25
On-Base Percentage	.348	25
Slugging Percentage	.422	26
WHIP	1.57	27
HR %	0.8%	24
BB+HBP %	12.3%	24
SO %	19.3%	22
Pitches / Batter	4.1	22
Pitches / Inning	18.7	29

How Wilson ranks when facing his first batter:

Category		Rank
Average	.293	24
On-Base Percentage	.341	22
Slugging Percentage	.537	31

Based on a comparison of Wilson's peripheral stats to the other 32 relievers, the following closers are having seasons most similar to Wilson in 2008 (from most to least simlar):

J. Isringhausen
R. Franklin
B. Wilson
G. Sherrill
J. Valverde
M. Corpas
B. Ryan
S. Torres

And the least similar relievers:

M. Rivera
J. Soria
B. Morrow
J. Papelbon
B. Wagner
J. Nathan
B. Lidge
B. Jenks

Regarding Wilson’s personality: His flamboyance and occasional indifference to PR protocols will always make him an outsized target of affection when he’s performing well. Conversely, when he’s faltering, his comments/hair/hobbies/etc. will face extreme ridicule. This can be expressed algebraically as follows:

P = Performance [range of 0-10, 5 = average]
WL = Wilson Love [infinitely positive or negative, measured in picocuries]

WL = ( P – 5 ) x Modifier,

where Modifier > 1

I have yet to define this modifier numerically. It might be exponential rather than multiplicative.

Posted by Lucas at 06:01 PM

June 29, 2008

Clarifications

Randy Galloway, this morning:

If you are bringing up a Chris Davis... shouldn’t it be as an everyday player? Does that make sense, even if holding them out at times against certain pitchers is also acceptable? But if there is a thought, or if the minor league stats show Davis might struggle a tad with lefties, then keep him in OKC to face those lefties, and not have him sit for those up here. Any doubt that creeps into Davis’ mind that he might not be trusted against lefties is a doubt that absolutely should not be there at this stage of a career.”

Chris Davis’s career splits:

-	vs. Left	vs. Right
Average	.315	.299
On-Base	.376	.349
Slugging	.573	.602
HR / PA	5.1%	6.9%
BB / PA	7.3%	7.3%
SO / PA	24.1%	25.4%

Chris Davis’s splits in 2008:

-	vs. Left	vs. Right
Average	.293	.343
On-Base	.333	.398
Slugging	.552	.665
HR / PA	6.3%	7.1%
BB / PA	4.8%	8.6%
SO / PA	27.0%	21.1%

Davis's BB/SO ratio has broken down against lefties this season. The rest is peachy. If Davis is having self-esteem issues versus lefties, he's hiding them well.

Idle thought: Under this philosophy, would Hank Blalock (lifetime .224/.279/.345 versus lefties) ever have become a Major Leaguer?

“Why is [Brandon Boggs] up here, playing maybe twice a week, when the kid shows definite potential? Boggs has been an asset for the Rangers when he has played, but is he benefiting in the long run from all the sitting?”

Boggs has never appeared in fewer than three games in any seven-day period:

Posted by Lucas at 05:52 PM

June 13, 2008

Analyzing Eric Hurley

Eric Hurley allowed four runs in six innings in his Major League debut on Thursday. His first start was, like many of his AAA appearances, “great except for the homers.” Hurley has allowed home runs at nearly double the league rate this season, resulting in decent overall performances when the rest of his game is on and disasters when he’s off.

By design, Hurley drew the worst offense in the American League as an opponent. The Royals have scored fewer than four runs per game and against righties are batting .256/.306/.368 with a 6% walk rate. Still, they’re not the New Orleans Zephyrs. Hurley made some mistakes and was duly punished. That said, Hurley showed admirable poise on the mound, worked efficiently, and often lived up to his considerable potential.

The magic of pitchFX encourages (nay, demands) excruciating detailed analyses of his performance. Let’s go:

Pitch Types and Movement:

After leading off with 15 consecutive fastballs, Hurley mixed in a slider and occasional changeup. He threw 68 of 92 pitches for strikes and didn’t walk a batter. Here’s his pitch selection with speeds and strike percentages:

Pitch Type	Thrown	Average Initial Speed	Minimum	Maximum	% Strike or Contact
Fastball	59	91.1	86.9	94.1	68%
Changeup	10	80.2	78.5	82.5	60%
Slider	23	84.5	80.1	86.9	78%

The next chart displays the movement of each pitch relative to a ball thrown without spin. This particular chart doesn’t show pitch location, just movement.

On the vertical axis, a positive number represents a the ball that doesn’t descend as much as a spin-free throw. A negative number indicates more drop. On the horizontal axis, a negative number indicates the ball tails toward a right-handed batter or away from a lefty swinger.

The backspin on fastballs retards their downward descent, so they show more vertical “rise,” and they usually tail into a right-handed batter (if thrown by a righty like Hurley). Sliders tend to cut away from righties and have minimal rise. Some pitchers’ sliders have extra downward movement in a “slurvy” fashion, but not Hurley’s. Indeed, his sliders often gave the appearance of rising upon release before snapping leftward. (Note that nobody’s pitches actually rise.) A curve, if Hurley threw one, would show up below the slider, indicating the most downward movement.

Vertical Location:

Vertical Location	ALL	FASTBALLS
Below Strike Zone	9	3
Lower Third in Zone	16	7
Middle Third in Zone	31	24
Upper Third in Zone	25	16
Above Strike Zone	11	9

Hurley clearly favored the upper part of the strike zone, particularly with fastballs. I constantly read of how he’s attempting to locate more pitches on the lower part of the plate, but only 10 of his 59 fastballs touched the lower third of the plate or below. Furthermore, most of them don’t look like failed efforts to aim low. Plain and simple, he’s gearing up and throwing a standard “rising” fastball.

Horizontal Location:

Away, away, away. 31 of Hurley’s pitches missed on the outside part of the plate compared to just six inside. The umpire’s slightly off-center strike zone might have played a role in Hurley’s location.

Hoizontal Location in Strike Zone	ALL
Inside Strike Zone (toward hitter)	6
Inside Third of Zone	16
Middle Third of Zone	18
Outside Third of Zone	21
Outside Strike Zone (away from hitter)	31

Lefties Versus Righties:

Opponents	Pitches	Fastball	Changeup	Slider
to Lefties	69	71%	14%	14%
to Righties	23	43%	0%	57%
ALL	92	64%	11%	25%

Hurley threw more sliders than fastballs to right-handed batters, taking advantage of the slider’s tail away from the hitter. Against lefties, he focused on the fastball. All ten of his changeups were to lefties. The charts reconfirm his efforts to work the outer part of the plate. (Note: This chart and all that follow are displayed as if the viewer is the catcher looking toward the pitcher. A right-handed batter would stand on the left side of the chart. Anything within the “rulebook” strike zone is absolutely a strike. The wider zone is 2.8 inches (about the width of the ball) and represents everything that could (and probably should) be a strike. PitchFX isn’t perfect, and neither are umpires, so there’s some leeway in this zone.)

Results by Batted Ball Location:

The ground/fly data in a box score only refer to outs, and they characterize a harmless pop-up to the catcher no differently than a fly ball caught on the warning track. Hurley’s fly tendencies were on uncomfortably clear display. Excluding the bunt, 75% of Kansas City’s batted balls were outfield flies or line drives. Even in consideration of the two homers, he could have fared worse.

Balls in Play	Number	Opposing Average / Slugging
Grounder	3	.000 / .000
Line Drive	4	.750 / 1.000
Flyball	11	.182 / .909
Infield Pop	2	.000 / .000
Bunt	1	1.000 / 1.000

Results by Pitch Type:

Hurley’s ability to throw strikes and induce bad swings with his slider was most impressive. This is described in the next table. Conversely, batters swung at 27 fastballs and made contact (in play or foul) with all but two.

Results	Ball	Called Strike	Swinging Strike	Foul	Ground Out	Line Out	Fly Out	Infield Pop	Hit	HBP
Fastball	19	12	2	13	1	1	5	1	4	1
Changeup	4	1	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
Slider	5	3	5	3	1	0	3	1	2	0

The next charts display pitch locations and results by pitch type.

The fastball chart shows his tendency to work high and occasional control lapses. The two hits within the “rulebook” strike zone were home runs. Sometimes, as on those pitches, his fastball tended to float more than break. I didn’t create separate charts for batter handedness, but I should note that the umpire was squeezing Hurley a little on fastballs in toward left-handed batters and giving him an extra two or three inches on the outside part of the plate.

The slider is another story. The couple of them didn’t slide, and one slid too much, but on the whole it was his most effective pitch.

Hurley’s changeup was all over the place. That said, he didn’t suffer any damage from it.

Fastball Velocity:

Hurley’s 1st-inning fastballs rarely exceeded 90. During the last four innings, only one of his fastballs failed to surpass 90. He steadily touched 92-93 after the 2nd and showed no apparent fatigue.

Posted by Lucas at 08:38 AM

June 05, 2008

Draft Day Guess

Sent to Jamey Newberg via AIM at 1130 last night:

"[Yonder] alonso or [Ethan] martin. texas will select one of them. that's my guess. don't think crow or hosmer will be around."

Posted by Lucas at 11:00 AM

April 25, 2008

Two Minus Three Equals Negative Fun!

Texas pitchers have issued the most walks (114) and fewest strikeouts (109) in the American League. Thus, they’re headed for the dubious distinction of completing a season with more walks than strikeouts. That won’t happen, but it’s fun to think about (in a self-destructive way).

The Rangers are on pace for 767 strikeouts and 803 walks, a difference of -36. Until the mid-1950s, negative differences weren’t uncommon. No pitching staff has tallied fewer strikeouts than walks since the 1956 Philadelphia Athletics (-67).

In the last fifteen years, Milwaukee has the worst difference, +95, in the 144-game 1995 season. The worst full season belongs to the epically bad ’96 Tigers staff, which had 784 walks and 957 strikeouts, a difference of +173. Detroit allowed 6.8 runs per game, 1,015 for the season.

Regarding the 803 walk pace: It would be the third most in MLB history behind the notorious 1915 Athletics and the 1949 Yankees. The worst total in the last fifteen years (784) belongs to the aforementioned ’96 Tigers.

Regarding the 767 strikeout pace: The only team with fewer strikeouts in the last fifteen years is the 2003 Tigers with 764. They won 43 games.

And there’s more! Texas is also on pace to allow 1,690 hits. That’s well below the record of 1,993 by the 1930 Phillies, during an era when teams routinely hit .290. But, excluding Colorado, it would be the third-most since 1940, after the ’97 Athletics (1,734) and ’96 Tigers (1,699). Considering the offensive context, allowing 1,690 hits in 2008 might be worse. Incidentally, the 3rd and 4th worst post-1940 hit totals belong to the ’00 and ’01 Rangers.

Posted by Lucas at 06:11 PM

April 21, 2008

The Rundown Museum Proudly Displays...

Francisco Goya, Boston Devouring The Rangers, oil mural transferred to canvas, circa 1823.

Posted by Lucas at 02:50 PM

April 19, 2008

More Strike Calls

Regarding the irritation of Manny Ramirez and Milton Bradley at Jerry Meals's strike zone on Friday, Bradley at least has an argument. Here's the called strike in question:

The outer box is 2.9 inches (the width of the ball) around the rule-book strike zone. It gives the full benefit of the doubt to the umpire.

As for Manny...

...no telling what what going through his head.

Posted by Lucas at 02:16 PM

April 18, 2008

Close, But No Cigar

Benoit's final pitch to Marco Scutaro on Wednesday was Ball Four. Barely.

Posted by Lucas at 05:45 PM

March 27, 2008

Opening Day Lineup

Per T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com:

Manager Ron Washington has set his Opening Day lineup. Here is what [lefty] Erik Bedard will be facing
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Michael Young
CF Josh Hamilton
3B Hank Blalock
DH Milton Bradley
LF David Murphy
RF Marlon Byrd
C Gerald Laird
1B Ben Broussard

Yes, Washington is going with Blalock at cleanup hitter. He said Bradley is not ready for the role and Blalock has convinced him that he can bat cleanup. Frank Catalanotto will be on the bench for Opening Day but will still be out there plenty against right-handed pitchers. Broussard will bat last.

Texas has never had an Opening Day first baseman hit ninth. Here’s the previous 36 years:

1st -- 1
2nd -- 3
3rd -- 12
4th -- 3
5th -- 10
6th -- 4
7th -- 2
8th -- 1
9th -- 0

Mike Jorgensen played first and batted 8th for the ’79 edition. He’d been a good hitter in the early 70s, but with Texas he soon lost his job to a younger Pat Putnam. Putnam hit 7th on Opening Day 1981, and Lee Stevens hit 7th for the ’99 offensive juggernaut.

I don’t get too bent out of shape about lineups, but: May I cautiously suggest that if a team’s first baseman is batting ninth on Opening Day, something is wrong. The player shouldn’t be in the lineup... the regular 1B is hurt... the manager is misguided... something.

Regarding Washington’s quote about Bradley, Milton has started 62 games at cleanup and batted .338/.447/.546. He also has more career at-bats in the #3 spot than anywhere else. May I cautiously suggest that Bradley could hit higher than fifth, even coming off an injury.

Interestingly, in light of the common knowledge that Broussard doesn’t hit lefties, he has a better line against them than Blalock: .227/.290/.399 versus .226/.280/.349. At least in terms of historical performance, Texas inarguably will have its worst lefty hitter batting cleanup, Washington's convictions notwithstanding.

Maybe this kitteh picture will relieve my frustration:

Posted by Lucas at 01:55 PM

March 09, 2008

Wonderin'

Manager Ron Washington has been adamant [that Ben] Broussard will open the season playing regularly against lefties. The Rangers are expected to face Seattle lefty Erik Bedard on opening day.

"I don't want him coming to the park every day wondering if he's going to play against a left-hander," Washington said. "He's going to play against them until he proves he can't."

I know how to keep Broussard from wondering. You say: “NO! Ben, you will not start against lefties! Ever, ever, ever! When you do start, you will be pulled for a pinch-hitter if the opposition brings in a lefty. When you don’t start, you’ll pinch-hit against righty relievers.”

And then, for good measure, you type those words and tape them to his locker. Voila, no more wondering.

Was Broussard unfairly cast into a platoon role early in his career? I think not, but even if so, the fact remains that he’s 31 years old and hasn’t hit lefties well since A-ball. Broussard has a line of .227/.290/.399 in 387 MLB appearances against lefties. In 114 appearances in AA and AAA, he batted .214/.289/.369. 501 PAs with a sub-.300 on-base percentage may not provide absolute proof that he doesn’t deserve to play against lefties, but the evidence is beyond a reasonable doubt.

Meanwhile…

Player	Bats	MLB PA	MLB Line	AA-AAA PA	AA-AAA Line
Broussard	L	387	.227/.290/.399	114	.214/.289/.369
Botts	S	61	.283/.361/.358	380	.357/.432/.646
Shelton	R	256	.269/.323/.420	218	.277/.390/.495

…Chris Shelton and Jason Botts have far superior records in both the Majors and high minors against righties. Botts hasn’t translated his sterling AAA record into big-league success, but he’s at least shown some aptitude at reaching base against lefties. Also, unlike the placeholders Broussard and Shelton, Botts has a small chance at a role on the next good Rangers team.

How about Frank Catalanotto at first (career .248/.332/.344)? Stupid, right? Well, replacing Broussard with Frank Catalanotto gains 30 points of OBP but loses over 50 in slugging, pretty close to a wash. That only emphasizes the absurdity of this situation. Nobody would suggest starting Cat at first against lefties, yet the record indicates he’d be no worse than Broussard.

Washington has an obligation to start either the best players, or those who could become the best. Against lefties, Broussard fits neither description.

Posted by Lucas at 10:35 PM

February 27, 2008

Botts vs. Cruz, Expanded

(This is what I wrote for the Newberg Report recently plus bonus material at the end.)

Last week, Evan Grant reported the not-surprising news that Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz were essentially fighting for one roster spot. Who’s more likely to win?

Cruz has the defensive advantage, to be sure, though Botts can narrow that advantage if he proves capable of handling first base this spring. Also, for the first time in a while, Texas appears to have above-average outfield defense. With Josh Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, and (eventually) Milton Bradley roaming the field, the need for another plus glove isn’t quite the high priority of previous years.

Both Botts and Cruz fared well in winter ball. Unfortunately, both Liga Dominicana and Liga Mexicana del Pacifico play roughly equivalent to AAA, which is to say their exploits were par for the course. With neither having established himself, the battle may come down to which player shows more in 50-or-so Spring Training at-bats. For a couple of reasons, that’s virtually a dice roll.

Here’s an example related to my “anything can happen in two weeks” math from last week. Say you know that in the long run, Michael Young will bat .300 and Ben Broussard will bat .250. What is the probability that Broussard will hit for a higher average than Young over the course of just 50 at-bats? The answer is 25%. If the “real” difference is only 25 points (say, .300 vs. .275), the weaker player will outhit the stronger one 35% of the time. If there’s a genuine difference between Botts and Cruz, 50 at-bats may not reveal the superior player, and they might wrongly suggest the inferior hitter is better. (These figures come via binomial probability distributions, in case you were curious.)

Also, especially in early March, Spring Training features a wider variety of competition than any regular-season league. You may see in a few weeks that Botts has outplayed Cruz statistically, but you might not know that Cruz faced Joe Saunders twice while Botts teed off against Joey Jo-Jo Shabadoo. Back in my ESPN days, I pleaded with people to ignore spring stats, which are worthless in terms of predicting regular-season performance. Remember when Matt Kata batted .375 last spring, then had about 140 consecutive hitless at-bats when the games counted? Good times.

So, spring stats are nearly meaningless… unless you have two guys fighting for one job. Then they’re all-important.

Result after X at-bats	25	50	100	200	500
'True' .300 batter has higher average	59.5%	67.4%	76.3%	85.80%	95.9%
'True' .300 hitter and 'true' .250 hitter are tied	11.7%	7.6%	4.6%	2.30%	0.6%
'True' .250 hitter has higher average	28.8%	25.0%	19.1%	11.90%	3.5%

These are the results of binomial probability distributions. The “true” .300 hitter has a 30% chance of getting a hit in any particular at-bat. It’s interesting that even after 500 at-bats, almost a full season, the .250 hitter has about a 1-in-25 chance of equaling or bettering the .300 hitter. After about 900 at-bats, the chance falls to 1-in-100. Just goes to show how long the long run can be, statistically speaking.

Posted by Lucas at 06:43 PM

February 01, 2008

Rangers Salary Commitments

As with my salary calculations here, I'm assuming all options are picked up/exercised and ignoring deferred and incentive money.

Concept stolen from USS Mariner, whose pretty chart is here.

Posted by Lucas at 01:31 AM

November 01, 2007

Ranger Pitcher Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by ranking the sums of the squares of the differences in average, on-base percentage, slugging, homer rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate between each Ranger pitcher and every hitter in baseball with at least 200 appearances. Now that I’ve put you to sleep with the previous sentence, the list:

Pitcher	Opposing AVG / OBP / SLG -- OPS	Opposing AVG+ / OBP+ / SLG+ -- OPS+	HR% -- BB% -- SO%	Most Comparable Batters ('07 Stats Only)
A. Otsuka	.218 / .269 / .277 -- .546	80 / 79 / 65 -- 44	0.0% -- 7.0% -- 18.0%	Nick Punto, Erick Aybar, Adam Kennedy
E. Gagne	.192 / .271 / .275 -- .546	71 / 80 / 65 -- 45	1.5% -- 9.1% -- 22.0%	Adam Kennedy, Mark Kotsay, Nick Punto
C. Wilson	.208 / .314 / .288 -- .602	77 / 93 / 68 -- 61	1.5% -- 12.1% -- 23.1%	Robert Fick, Nick Punto, Abraham Nunez
J. Benoit	.225 / .293 / .348 -- .641	83 / 86 / 82 -- 68	1.8% -- 8.5% -- 26.4%	Gerald Laird, Carlos Quentin, Royce Clayton, (Brandon Inge)
W. Littleton	.262 / .327 / .410 -- .737	97 / 96 / 97 -- 93	3.0% -- 8.0% -- 12.1%	Scott Rolen, Mike Sweeney, Carlos Ruiz, (Melky Cabrera)
J. Wright	.259 / .361 / .381 -- .742	96 / 106 / 90 -- 96	1.9% -- 12.9% -- 12.2%	David DeJesus, Johnny Damon, Esteban German
E. Volquez	.262 / .342 / .408 -- .750	97 / 101 / 96 -- 97	2.8% -- 10.3% -- 20.0%	Jim Edmonds, Jose Bautista, Tad Iguchi
F. Francisco	.258 / .370 / .385 -- .755	95 / 109 / 91 -- 100	1.2% -- 14.7% -- 18.9%	Scott Speizio, Willie Harris, Esteban German (Tad Iguchi)
B. McCarthy	.278 / .355 / .428 -- .783	103 / 105 / 101 -- 106	2.0% -- 10.7% -- 13.2%	Luis Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Brian Giles
K. Gabbard	.265 / .371 / .424 -- .795	98 / 109 / 100 -- 109	2.9% -- 13.2% -- 14.9%	JD Drew, Kevin Millar, Cliff Floyd
K. Millwood	.301 / .366 / .446 -- .812	111 / 108 / 105 -- 113	2.5% -- 8.6% -- 15.9%	Edward Encarnacion, Billy Butler, Randy Winn
K. Loe	.295 / .362 / .448 -- .810	109 / 107 / 106 -- 113	2.1% -- 9.3% -- 12.9%	Mike Lamb, Andre Ethier, Randy Winn
V. Padilla	.299 / .373 / .438 -- .811	110 / 110 / 103 -- 113	3.0% -- 9.3% -- 13.2%	Mike Lamb, Orlando Hudson, Randy Winn
W. Eyre	.291 / .368 / .451 -- .819	107 / 109 / 106 -- 115	2.7% -- 10.7% -- 14.0%	Mike Lamb, Orlando Hudson, Andre Ethier
A. Murray	.238 / .328 / .505 -- .833	88 / 97 / 119 -- 116	5.0% -- 12.5% -- 15.0%	Paul Konerko, Justin Morneau, Jermaine Dye
S. Feldman	.284 / .411 / .419 -- .830	105 / 121 / 99 -- 120	1.6% -- 17.1% -- 10.2%	Joe Mauer, Brian Roberts, Brian Giles
J. Rheinecker	.295 / .382 / .473 -- .855	109 / 113 / 112 -- 125	3.8% -- 11.9% -- 17.0%	Russ Martin, Manny Ramirez, Travis Buck
R. Tejeda	.290 / .390 / .499 -- .889	107 / 115 / 118 -- 133	3.9% -- 13.7% -- 15.7%	Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Frank Thomas
M. Wood	.321 / .373 / .533 -- .906	118 / 110 / 126 -- 136	4.0% -- 6.6% -- 11.0%	James Loney, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Lee

What stands out is the remarkable similarity between Vicente Padilla and Kam Loe. In 2008, one will be entrenched as Texas’s #2 starter, while the other will fight for a middle-relief role. Such is life.

Last year's list.

Posted by Lucas at 11:00 AM

October 01, 2007

Marlon Byrd, MVP

Click here for background. I CANNOT overemphasize the silliness of this statistic.

Player	Team Record When in Starting Lineup	Team Record When Out of Starting Lineup	Difference
Byrd	54-49 (.524)	21-38 (.356)	.168
Vazquez	44-41 (.518)	31-46 (.403)	.115
Botts	25-21 (.543)	50-66 (.431)	.112
Hairston	21-20 (.512)	54-67 (.446)	.066
Wilkerson	45-48 (.484)	30-39 (.435)	.049
Melhuse	8-8 (.500)	67-79 (.459)	.041
Metcalf	24-25 (.490)	51-62 (.451)	.038
Saltalamacchia	22-24 (.478)	53-63 (.457)	.021
Kata	9-10 (.474)	66-77 (.462)	.012
Laird	53-61 (.465)	22-26 (.458)	.007
Catalanotto	41-48 (.461)	34-39 (.466)	-.005
Lofton	35-44 (.443)	40-43 (.482)	-.039
Cruz	35-44 (.443)	40-43 (.482)	-.039
Blalock	24-32 (.429)	51-55 (.481)	-.053
Diaz	10-14 (.417)	65-73 (.471)	-.054
Kinsler	58-71 (.450)	17-16 (.515)	-.066
Sosa	45-58 (.437)	30-29 (.508)	-.072
Murphy	9-16 (.360)	66-71 (.482)	-.122
Teixeira	30-48 (.385)	45-39 (.536)	-.151

Posted by Lucas at 09:28 PM

September 26, 2007

Sammy Sosa, The Lucky Machine

Ron Washington on Sammy Sosa, last Wednesday:

"My recommendation is they bring him back. The guy is an RBI machine. He hasn't done anything not to bring him back.”

On a macro level, Sosa has performed pretty close to my expectations. Here’s his vital stats compared to my prediction from March 13 (prorated to the same number of appearances):

.235/.310/.430, 50 runs, 20 homers, 57 RBI -- my prediction
.252/.309/.464, 51 runs, 20 homers, 90 RBI -- actual performance

Yay, me. Except I pegged him for only 250 appearances, and… what’s with the RBI? He really is an RBI machine. This year. Next year, the team paying for the machine will experience profound disappointment, because his 90 runs plated are the result of two highly unlikely occurrences:

1) Sosa has been extraordinarily fortunate this season in terms of how often he comes to the plate with runners in scoring position:

Prorating these percentages to his 442 plate appearances in 2007, Sosa has batted in 23 more RISP situations than his career average and 17 more than his career best.

Concurrently, Sosa has also enjoyed a huge increase in bases-loaded opportunities:

One possible explanation is that Sosa spent 1993-2004 in the NL, where pitchers hit and scoring is depressed. For several reasons, this explanation doesn’t work. On a league-wide level, the difference between RISP situations in the American versus the National League is only about 0.3%. Also, in his forgettable season in Baltimore, his proportion of RISP situations fell comfortably within the bounds set by his many years in Chicago.

Furthermore, Sosa’s 35% proportion of RISP PAs to total PAs exceeds the middle-of-the-order hitters for the Yankees, MLB’s best offense:

Matsui – 32.8%
Rodriguez – 32.2%
Abreu – 29.7%

How about Boston’s Ortiz and Ramirez?

Ramirez – 32.5%
Ortiz – 29.0%

What about Texas’s best hitters (here or departed)?

Teixeira – 31.0%
Young – 28.8%

Sosa bests them all. 111 AL hitters have at least 100 appearances with a runner in scoring position. Sosa ranks third – behind Garret Anderson and Emil Brown(?!) – in the proportion of RISP situations to total appearances. Relative to the American League as a whole, the best hitters on the best teams, and even his glorious past, he’s been darned lucky.

2) Sosa has been extraordinarily adept this season at hitting with runners in scoring position. However, Sosa has displayed NO special ability to hit in the clutch during his career.

From 1993 through this season (excluding 2006), Sosa has averaged .278 overall and .283 with runners in scoring position. During those 14 seasons, Sosa’s RISP average has strayed from his overall average by more than 30 points on only three occasions: 1993, 1995, and 2007. This season, Sosa is batting .336/.390/.597 with runners in scoring position; his RISP average has exceeded his overall average by a remarkable 83 points.

Similarly, Sosa has a career .553 RISP slugging percentage and a .552 overall percentage. This season, his RISP slugging is 133 points above his overall slugging.

As a result of this prowess, Sosa has plated 66 baserunners (excluding himself on homers) in 154 RISP situations, equal to 0.43 runners per plate appearance. His average during 1993-2007 is 0.32. For the sake of argument, assume Sosa plays in 2008 and receives the same number of appearances, a typical proportion of RISP situations, and drives in runs at a typical rate. How many baserunners would he plate?

Actual 2007 RISP performance: 442 PAs x 34.8% RISP x 0.429 RBI per RISP PA
= 66 baserunners driven in

“Average” RISP performance: 442 PAs x 29.0% RISP x 0.319 RBI per RISP PA
= 41 baserunners driven in

Suddenly, Sosa loses 25 RBI in RISP situations. If Sosa had only 65 RBI this season instead of 90, would Washington and others still clamor for his return? Note also that this calculation assumes no further age-related decline, a dubious assumption to make of a soon-to-be 39-year-old.

Just to clarify, I’m not discounting his achievements this year. Runs batted in are partly a function of opportunity, and Sosa has taken advantage. For a guy with a .309 OBP, he’s been pretty useful. He can still hit lefties, and I was surprised that Texas found no takers for him during the trading window. He’s also acted professionally throughout the season and didn’t complain when relegated to the bench.

So thank him and send him on his way, because next year, if given another 450 appearances, he’s far more likely to be an out machine than an RBI machine.

Posted by Lucas at 01:27 PM

September 03, 2007

What's Ailing Jason Botts?

At the halfway point of his trial period, Jason Botts is batting .202/.296/.288. Statistically, I see three problems:

1) Botts leads the team in pitches per plate appearances with 4.4, but his patience hasn’t resulted in enough walks to mitigate his batting average. Though he’s drawn more walks recently, his overall rate of 9.3% barely surpasses the AL rate of 8.5%.

For that matter, the second and third most patient Rangers, Brad Wilkerson and Ramon Vazquez, have walk rate of 8.9% and 9.6%, respectively. The correlation between pitches per appearance and walks is strong but not absolute; Brandon Inge, Felipe Lopez, and Bill Hall are examples of “patient” players with only low-to-average walk rates.

2) Botts has simply been terrible at turning first-pitch swings into fair balls.

He’s swung at 32% of first pitches, more often than I would have guessed and easily among the upper half among Rangers with at least 100 appearances. The 1st pitch is money for most hitters -- the AL is batting .342 and slugging .545 when putting the ball in play on the 1st pitch. Botts has been no exception, batting .429 and slugging .857.

Sad to say, Botts has only seven one-pitch appearances despite swinging at 35 first pitches. His 20% contact rate is less than one-half the team average of 42%.

Player	First-Pitch Balls In Play / First Pitches Swung At
Jerry Hairston	55%
Kenny Lofton	53%
Frank Catalanotto	52%
Travis Metcalf	51%
Michael Young	50%
Gerald Laird	50%
Ian Kinsler	48%
Ramon Vazquez	46%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	43%
Average Among Group	42%
Mark Teixeira	41%
Brad Wilkerson	39%
Sammy Sosa	37%
Marlon Byrd	37%
Victor Diaz	32%
Hank Blalock	32%
Nelson Cruz	29%
Jason Botts	20%

After first pitches, the Rangers as a whole have an 0-1 count in 49% of their appearances. The AL average is 47%. For Botts, it’s 60%.

3) Following from 2), Botts lead the team in percentages of plate appearances reaching an 0-2 count, which is death to hitters. The AL is batting .183/.215/.264 after beginning 0-2.

Player	% of PAs with 0-2 Count
Jason Botts	28%
Marlon Byrd	26%
Victor Diaz	24%
Travis Metcalf	23%
Jerry Hairston	22%
Michael Young	21%
Nelson Cruz	21%
Ramon Vazquez	20%
Average Among Group	20%
Ian Kinsler	20%
Brad Wilkerson	19%
Sammy Sosa	19%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	18%
Mark Teixeira	18%
Gerald Laird	16%
Frank Catalanotto	15%
Hank Blalock	15%
Kenny Lofton	15%

Too often, Botts’s lengthy plate appearances result from laying off junk after starting in an 0-1 or 0-2 hole. That’s not a terribly productive use of his patience.

One odd source of comfort is Botts’s career. He’s started slowly at every level except during his rookie season in 2000. Unfortunately, this time he probably has only one month to heat up.

Posted by Lucas at 08:53 PM

August 23, 2007

Wheeeeeeeee!

Posted by Lucas at 12:52 AM

August 01, 2007

40-Man and Organizational Depth Chart Updated

Texas now has only three potential free agents: Jerry Hairston, Sammy Sosa and Brad Wilkerson.

Posted by Lucas at 06:37 PM

July 21, 2007

Brad Wilkerson, MVP

One of the more preposterous ideas polluting the newspapers and airwaves recently was of the team “showing it could win without Mark Teixeira.” See, here, here and here for examples. Within that statement resides the implication that Teixeira might not be so important to the team or that Texas is better off without him. After all, the Rangers went 16-12 while Teixeira nursed his sore quad but only 21-39 with him.

I don’t believe I need to tell you this, gentle reader, but just in case: For a statistic to have meaning and value, it must have uniform applicability. For example, one can calculate batting averages for all hitters, compare them, and learn something meaningful about the players.

Thus, for the difference in the Rangers’ record with and without Teixeira to have meaning, the difference must also apply logically to other players. Here’s a table of “with vs. without” records for all Ranger hitters who’ve started and missed at least 15 games:

Player	Team Record When in Starting Lineup	Team Record When Out of Starting Lineup	Difference
Wilkerson	28-29 (.491)	13-26 (.333)	.158
Vazquez	20-20 (.500)	21-35 (.375)	.125
Metcalf	11-10 (.524)	30-45 (.400)	.124
Byrd	22-23 (.489)	19-32 (.373)	.116
Hairston	17-17 (.500)	24-38 (.387)	.113
Kata	7-8 (.467)	34-47 (.420)	.047
Stewart	5-6 (.455)	36-49 (.424)	.031
Catalanotto	22-28 (.440)	19-27 (.413)	.027
Lofton	32-43 (.427)	9-12 (.429)	-.002
Diaz	10-14 (.417)	31-41 (.431)	-.014
Blalock	15-24 (.385)	26-31 (.456)	-.072
Sosa	31-46 (.403)	10-9 (.526)	-.124
Cruz	13-25 (.342)	28-30 (.483)	-.141
Kinsler	29-45 (.392)	12-10 (.545)	-.154
Laird	30-46 (.395)	11-9 (.550)	-.155
Teixeira	25-44 (.362)	16-11 (.593)	-.230

If you honestly believe in a correlation between Teixeira’s absence and the team’s improved record, you’d better be willing to accept Brad Wilkerson as the team MVP.

Yes, Teixeira has acted like he wants the next flight out to another franchise. Yes, yet another glacial start on his behalf contributed to the early-season struggles. Neither offsets the fact that he’s a very good player who helps his team to win.

Texas allowed 5.9 runs per game before Teixeira got hurt and 4.4 per game during his absence. We have causation!

Posted by Lucas at 02:35 PM

July 14, 2007

.199/.245/.393

Sammy Sosa's batting line when runners are not in scoring position. That's in 208 appearances.

Posted by Lucas at 02:59 PM

July 13, 2007

Swing, Batter!

There’s no such thing as an empty .538 slugging percentage, but Victor Diaz sure gave it a try with his .259 OBP. Diaz walked once in 104 plate appearances and holds the following honors:

-- First on team in percentage of all pitches swung at (57%, next is Blalock at 52%)

-- First in percentage of strikes swung at (82%, tied with Blalock)

-- First in percentage of first pitches swung at (40%, tied with Blalock, no one else above 32%)

-- First in percentage of strikeouts swinging (91%, next closest are Young and Hairston at 83%)

-- Last in percentage of swings making contact (68%, tied with Sosa, no one else below 74%)

-- Last in percentage of counts reaching 3-0 (2%, next are several at 3%)

-- Last in percentage of counts reaching 3-1 (1%, next is Blalock at 6%)

Posted by Lucas at 06:41 PM

July 12, 2007

Draft Update: Rounds 1-5

1. Blake Beavan (RHP, high school)

Unsigned. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explained the Beavan issue in detail yesterday. The operative phrase for 2007 and the future is “slot money.” Major League Baseball has recommended signing bonuses for several years, but more recently the league office has increased its oversight.

First, a team must “consult” with the commissioner’s office when it wants to sign a player for an above-slot bonus. The consultation involves Bud Selig doing a really terrible Vito Corleone impersonation, so teams avoid it if at all possible and are toeing the line thus far.

Second, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has shortened the negotiation period for draft picks and improved compensation for unsigned picks. The changes were effected to give teams more leverage, and so far they have. Bonuses for signed first rounders are down 10% or more from 2006.

Understandably, some players and their representatives are peeved at the new math. As noted by Grant, Beavan is asking for a bit over $1.5 million from a slot valued at $1.4 million. He’s been deemed a middle first-rounder since February, so there’s no issue of deserving top ten money.

The signing deadline is five weeks from today, and only 13 of the top 30 have signed. I won’t worry about Beavan until we’re into August.

1. Michael Main (RHP, high school)

Signed and batting .217/.269/.261 for rookie-league Arizona. He’s expected to take the mound within a couple of weeks.

1a. Julio Borbon (OF, college junior)

Unsigned. No news, no rumors, no nothing. Borbon can return to Tennessee for his senior year, but everything I’ve read about him suggests he’s ready to turn pro. He’s a Scott Boras client.

1a. Neil Ramirez (RHP, high school)

Unsigned. Ramirez entered the season considered a potential first rounder and was ranked 25th on Baseball America’s prospect list. A minor back injury and inconsistent performance dropped him to 44th on draft day. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus claimed Ramirez is asking for above-slot money. I don’t know what Ramirez is seeking, but the difference between his position and the bottom of the first round is $300,000-$400,000. He’s committed to Georgia Tech.

1a. Tommy Hunter (RHP, college sophomore)

Unsigned. According to the Indianapolis Star, Hunter has avoided the college summer league but has been throwing to stay in shape. On the record, he is utterly noncommittal about his destination. "It's a waiting process to see when everything gets done but I'm pretty sure it will work out. I'm waiting to see what everybody says, take all the advice in that I can and, after that, I'm going to make a decision."

Alabama coach Jim Wells recently retired, but Hunter says that won’t impact his decision.

UPDATE: Wells changed his mind and returned to Alabama.

2. Matt West (SS/3B, high school)

Signed and batting .345/.457/.483 in eight games for Arizona.

3. Evan Reed (RHP, college junior)

Signed last week and appearing on Spokane’s roster as of today.

4. Garrett Nash (SS, high school)

Unsigned. According to the Portland (OR) Tribune, Nash will enroll at Oregon State. Nash: “I just told [Texas], ‘I’m not going to sign. I’m going to go to school.’ After talking to my dad and thinking about what’s best for my future, I decided going to Oregon State would be the best thing for me. I’ll get better coaching than I would in Rookie League ball, and it’s a great program, something I want to be a part of. I want to start my college education and develop as a player.”

5. John Gast (LHP, high school)

Unsigned. Baseball America considered Gast no worse than a third rounder until he underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Florida State coach Mike Martin, who already has lost Michael Main to Texas, expects Gast to enter college. “I would be very surprised if he signs [with Texas]. With the potential he has, he would be leaving millions of dollars on the table.” Slot money is about $135,000, compared to $250,000-$300,000 for a third rounder.

Posted by Lucas at 08:45 AM

July 02, 2007

Is Ty Wigginton an All-Star?

The Startlegram’s Gil LeBreton argued for Sammy Sosa’s inclusion in the All-Star game and lobbed a grenade at stat-oriented analysis in the process:

If the fans are voting, why not give them some names worth arguing over? Sheffield should have been on the final list, as well as the Rangers' Sammy Sosa.

That's right, Sammy Sosa.

Baseball's history of All-Star Game box scores is lined with the names of superstars who passed through in the twilight of their careers. Sosa's batting average, granted, is only .255, but he has 14 home runs and 63 runs batted in, seventh-most in major league baseball.

The geeks that are trying to measure this season's Sosa by Win Shares, VORP and Runs Created Per 27 need to get a life.

We're trying to fill an All-Star roster, not a Bill James spreadsheet.

What harm would it have done to let baseball fans decide whether Sosa or Sheffield deserved to be the AL final All-Star?

That was the gravest injustice. I'm willing to excuse the fans' choice of Ivan Rodriguez as American League catcher, when a better case easily could be made for the Yankees' Jorge Posada or the Indians' Victor Martinez. The fans understandably want to see Pudge.

Like LeBreton, I have no issue with the fans voting for favorites in decline. Ivan Rodriguez will appear this year, and players like Reggie Jackson and Cal Ripken played in the Midsummer Classic at the tail of their careers. However, players like Pudge and Ripken were voted in. LeBreton argued that Sosa should be included on the supplemental ballot so that the fans can have their say, but they already have. Sosa ranked thirteenth among outfielders in the popular vote. Thirteenth, between Coco Crisp and Craig Monroe. LeBreton appears to accept the voters’ nostalgia-infused desire for Pudge but not their rejection of Sosa.

Except for one player, managers and the players themselves chose the rest of the roster. LeBreton doesn’t address their selections, but they clearly disagree with his yearning for the “superstar in twilight.” Sosa didn’t rank among the top six outfielders in the player voting. Manager Jim Leyland, a 62-year-old graduate of the old school, chose Michael Young over Sosa. Leyland had to insure that each team was represented, but otherwise, he and the players chose purely on merit.

I don’t know why the supplemental vote includes only pitchers. It didn’t in previous years. LeBreton has a point in this regard. I wouldn’t have minded Sosa’s name on the ballot.

Alas, he throws himself under the bus with his derision of “geeks” needing a life. The AL manager, the league’s players and millions of fans have deemed Sammy Sosa unworthy of a spot on the All-Star team. Yet, for some reason, the relative handful of fans who know about Win Shares deserves his special derision. Did a cabal of stat geeks keep Sosa off the supplemental ballot? Can LeBreton speak to the pros and cons of any of the statistics mentioned, or does he feel his blanket condemnation is sufficient?

Everyone, EVERYONE, who has spent his or her free time learning about advanced baseball metrics is by definition a wildly passionate baseball fan. They attend games, purchase caps and shirts, shell out cash for cable and online video, write blogs (for free!), and even buy newspapers. What in the world did they ever do to poor Gil LeBreton?

Nevertheless, let’s take LeBreton’s criticism on its face and assume Sosa is reasonably worthy of All-Star status. (I do agree that the idea is worth exploration.) I hypothesize that if Sosa is worthy, other players with similar statistics are also worthy. Seems reasonable, yes?

So: who is most similar to Sosa using ordinary stats found at any major website? Here are the general criteria that fit Sosa’s season to date:

Low batting average and OBP
Pretty good slugging percentage
Very high in RBI, low-to-average in runs
Respectable number of doubles
Above average in homers
No better than an average walk rate, preferably worse
Few steals

I derived the list mathematically, but you could probably imitate it via the eyeball method.

Player	Team	AVG / OBP / SLG	R	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SB
S. Sosa	TEX	.255/.308/.476	34	17	14	63	21	1
T. Wigginton	TAM	.273/.318/.455	36	17	13	41	21	1
E. Chavez	OAK	.246/.306/.445	35	20	12	42	28	4
J. Bay	PIT	.262/.338/.446	41	16	12	50	34	1
A. Gonzalez	CIN	.253/.301/.456	38	17	13	39	14	0
C. Delgado	NYM	.232/.296/.424	39	19	13	45	25	2
X. Nady	PIT	.278/.330/.480	36	12	13	46	15	2
R. Zimmerman	WAS	.245/.294/.420	42	18	12	42	22	3
K. Greene	SDG	.241/.274/.469	45	21	13	45	14	1
G. Atkins	COL	.247/.323/.424	37	19	11	45	34	3

Sosa actually compares favorably to guys like Jason Bay, Eric Chavez, Carlos Delgado, and Ryan Zimmerman. Unfortunately, each is having a lousy year by his previous standards. Ty Wigginton and Xavier Nady are probably the most apt comparisons to the present-day Sosa. Not bad players, but nobody’s idea of an All-Star.

What sticks out is the lower RBI totals for each of Sosa’s comparables. As you know, Sosa has thrived with runners on base, resulting in a very high number of runners plated despite a mediocre batting line. There’s no one in baseball quite like him.

And that is the essence of his All-Star case. That and nostalgia, which I debunked previously. Does Sosa deserve credit for his 63 RBI? Unquestionably. He ranks among the most fortunate in RBI opportunities and among the best at taking advantage of them. That’s a terrific combination, and it compensates greatly for his lame on-base percentage. (His ability to continue hitting in the clutch is a separate issue.)

But again, that’s the entirety of his case. He doesn’t hit for average, or walk much, or run, or play defense often or well. He doesn’t even play for a good team.

So: Ty Wigginton, anyone?

Posted by Lucas at 11:37 PM

June 15, 2007

Worse Than You Think

Although Texas can “catch” the Tigers by reducing its starters’ ERA by only 0.11, doing so would not equal them in terms of quality. Many people think of the period from the mid 1900s to the present as similar in terms of offense-heavy games, but in fact run scoring in 2007 has declined by about one-half run per team per game compared to 1996. Thus, while the ’07 Rangers and ’96 Tigers share similar rotation ERAs, Texas has performed considerably worse relative to the park-adjusted league average:

Stat	Detroit, 1996	Texas, 2007
Starters' ERA	6.64	6.75
AL Starters' ERA	5.17	4.53
Park Factor	1.01	1.05
Park-Adjusted ERA for Starters	5.22	4.76
Difference in ERA between Team and League	1.42	1.99
Pct. Diff. in ERA between Team and League	27% higher	42% higher

Texas must shave its starters’ ERA down to 6.05 to achieve equivalency to those wonderful Tigers.

Tangentially, Detroit used sixteen starters in 1996; the top five consisted of Felipe Lira, Omar Olivares, Greg Gohr, Justin Thompson, and Brian Williams. A.J. Sagar, C.J. Nitkowski, Scott Aldred and Todd Van Poppel also made between 8-9 starts each. The Tigers also featured a terrible bullpen that season, meaning that the rotation probably had a higher percentage of bequeathed runners reach home plate than Texas.

So, review those less-than-illustrious names from Detroit’s rotation, understand that the bullpen probably contributed to the rotation’s woes, and realize that Texas’s rotation is demonstrably and sickeningly worse.

Enjoy your weekend.

Posted by Lucas at 07:17 PM

June 04, 2007

125

Consecutive MLB plate appearances without an unintentional walk for Victor Diaz. He last walked on September 10, 2005.

Posted by Lucas at 12:43 AM

June 01, 2007

Platoon

With Texas down 7-5 in the 8th, two on, one out, and Seattle lefty George Sherrill in to face lefty Ramon Vasquez, manager Ron Washington opted to bring in Matt Kata, a switch hitter. Announcer Josh Lewin noted that Washington was “playing the percentages.”

Kata is a career .245/.304/.387 hitter. Not to pick on Lewin, but there is NO situation involving Matt Kata that can be deemed “playing the percentages.”

That said, it’s not so much what Kata doesn’t do well (hit, regardless of the pitcher’s arm) as what Sherrill does (kill lefties). Sherrill holds lefties to a miniscule line of .161/.212/.281 and struggles against righties, at least in terms of OBP: .282/.406/.365. Thus, Washington’s decision to leave left-handed Kenny Lofton in to face him is, ah, puzzling.

Again, Sherrill eats lefties alive, Lofton doesn’t even start against southpaws and is batting .150 against them this season (plus .214 in ’06), and Texas has two righties on the bench in the form of Nelson Cruz and Victor Diaz. Neither is hitting well against lefties, but at least they eliminate Sherrill’s gigantic platoon advantage. Cruz can play center, and even having Diaz out there for a couple of innings wouldn’t be the end of the world. Why not use one of them?

Someday, when Texas has a good team, decisions like this will really matter.

Posted by Lucas at 12:06 AM

May 21, 2007

Millwood’s Contract

Kevin Millwood did not sign a five-year, $60 million contract with Texas, though it wasn’t reported as such. He signed a four-year $48 million contract with a fifth year at $12 million that vests upon fulfillment of any of three innings-pitched scenarios:

540 innings during 2007-2009,
360 innings during 2008-2009, or
180 innings during 2009.

With Millwood hitting the disabled list twice in rapid succession, these scenarios have come into play. Per MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, Millwood probably won’t be ready to pitch on May 29th when Texas next needs a fifth starter. For the sake of discussion, assume he returns June 5th to kick off the homestand against Detroit and is able to pitch the equivalent of every fifth game thereafter at his ’06 rate of 6.1 innings per start.

Those assumptions give him 21 more starts and 133 innings for a season total of 168.1. Thus, he’ll need 371.2 innings in 2008-2009 to achieve the goal in the first scenario. Since the second scenario requires only 360 innings, the first scenario is effectively meaningless at this point. Millwood’s hamstring has cost him the ability to stockpile innings during 2007 to mitigate inning-sapping injuries in ’08-’09.

Texas has an option to pick up the fifth year even if Millwood doesn’t attain any of those goals. Incidentally, with Millwood’s $15 million signing bonus deferred until 2011-2015, his contract is worth about $44.8 million in present-value dollars (discounted at 8%) including the fifth year.

Posted by Lucas at 08:42 AM

May 04, 2007

.299

Texas is scoring 4.4 runs per game despite an on-base percentage of .299. No team with a .299 OBP has ever exceeded four runs per game over a full season. The 1963 Cleveland Indians hold the “record” with 3.92 R/G on a line of .239/.299/.381. Here’s the five DH-era teams who’ve finished with a sub-.300 OBP:

Year	Team	Runs / Game	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS
1992	California	3.57	.243	.298	.338	160	101
1990	New York	3.72	.241	.296	.366	119	45
1981	Toronto	3.10	.226	.284	.330	66	57
1981	Minnesota	3.44	.240	.293	.338	34	27
1975	Detroit	3.58	.249	.299	.366	63	57

As you might expect, most of these teams ran into a bunch of extra outs.

Texas has been very fortunate to score as many runs as they have. The obverse of the Rangers is the Royals, who are batting .297/.371/.470 to lead off an inning but only .242/.321/.371 in RISP situations. They’re scoring 3.9 runs per game, significantly worse than Texas.

The Rangers have zero probability of maintaining a sub-.300 OBP for the whole season. It’s just not going to happen. However, with a more even distribution of hits, it’s possible for their dull 4.4 run average to persist even as their OBP increases. If that happens, Texas will lose 90 games even if its pitching reverts to 2006 form.

Posted by Lucas at 01:00 PM

May 03, 2007

Ron Is Right

Much of what I write involves the following process:

1. Read someone’s adamantly stated opinion.
2. Wonder: “Is that true?”
3. Discover: “Nope!”
4. Commence dissent.

So I’m pleased to report that Ron Washington is exactly right. Quotations from Chairman Ron at the Startlegram blog:

Patience is that you have to have enough knowledge of what you’re doing that if you’re going to swing at the first pitch, you can’t be topping it, you can’t be rolling it, you can't be popping it up. You’ve got to turn somebody over. You don't ground a first pitch to the third baseman. You don’t pop a first pitch to the second baseman. You don't chop a first pitch back to the pitcher. If you’re going to swing at a first pitch, you’ve got to center it. If you’re going to make an out, you’ve got to make a loud out. "If you go back and review, we’re making outs on first pitches. If your swing is not there to center the ball, then I don't think you should be swinging at that first pitch.

Texas is putting the ball in play on the first pitch in 10.5% of its plate appearances, exactly the same percentage as the American league. However, the Rangers are batting only .280/.287/.480 in first-pitch results.

“Only?” Isn’t a team-wide .280 average and .480 slugging percentage good?

Not on first pitches. The AL has a line of .323/.331/.527. Last year, Texas batted .349 and slugged .565 on first pitches. Hitters don’t often have full discretion to swing only at “perfect” strikes while letting marginal ones pass by. The first pitch is one such situation, so batting lines are highly inflated on first-pitch results.

Hitting .280 on first pitches is pretty lame.

Posted by Lucas at 02:38 PM

May 01, 2007

Brandon McCarthy, Part 2: How Much Of The “Suck” Is Bad Luck?

The pitch data presented in the previous entry doesn’t tell much of the story behind McCarthy’s dreadfulness this season. This table does:

Year	HR%	BB%	SO%	BABIP	ERA	LERA
2005-2006	4.8%	7%	19%	0.259	4.41	4.72
2007	2.9%	10%	12%	0.382	9.90	6.69

Despite pretty similar ball-strike distributions, McCarthy has walked more and struck out far fewer batters than during 2005-2006. The real killer is the gigantic increase in average on balls in play. He was a bit lucky in Chicago (where typical BABIP is about .290) and has been hugely unlucky in Texas, where a BABIP of about .305-.310 is the norm. If not for some improvement in home runs allowed, his ERA might be near 12.00.

So, the question is, how much of his meltdown is due to him alone, and how much is simply bad luck? It’s impossible to say for sure, but the last column of the table provides a little bit of an answer. LERA stands for Latent ERA, a stat I’ve used in the past but didn’t name until now. (If there’s anything baseball needs, it’s another obscure statistical acronym.) It’s a combination of Bill James’s Component ERA (except adding actual data for doubles and triples allowed instead of estimates) and DIPS (except adjusting to the BABIP typical for the team, not the league). Basically, I’m trying to estimate what the pitcher’s ERA might be assuming a typical distribution of baserunners and a typical BABIP for his team.

McCarthy appeared to be a bit lucky in Chicago, as evidenced by the slight increase in his LERA compared to his actual ERA. In Texas, his ERA “ought” to be 6.69 rather than 9.90. Depending on how the numbers are examined, perhaps 60-65%% of the increase in ERA is bad luck, and 35%-40% is purely his own fault.

This is ultimately an exercise in numerical tomfoolery, and goodness knows I’m not suggesting that McCarthy’s pitching is acceptable. However, if his ERA were actually 6.69 instead of 9.90, people might only be saying “he needs to get his butt in gear” instead of “he needs to be euthanized.”

Posted by Lucas at 06:43 PM

Brandon McCarthy, Part 1: Pitch Data Isn't Everything

Funny, but from looking purely at pitch data, you’d never guess that Brandon McCarthy’s ERA had skyrocketed from 4.41 in 2005-2006 to 9.90 this season.

Pitches	05-'06	'07
Strikes	64%	63%
-- Strikes looking	26%	28%
-- Strikes swinging	14%	10%
-- Strikes fouled	32%	31%
-- Strikes hit into play	28%	32%
1st-pitch strikes	56%	63%
3-0 counts	6%	5%
0-2 counts	18%	16%

Based on the number of pitches he’s thrown, the 4% increase in strikes hit into play equals 10 extra balls in play. That’s not an insignificant amount over the course of 20 innings, but certainly not enough to account for a doubling in ERA.

Posted by Lucas at 06:18 PM

April 27, 2007

Scoring From Third

The DMN’s Evan Grant wrote at length about the Rangers’ ghastly performance with runners on third in Thursday’s 9-4 loss to Cleveland. He noted their inefficiency at getting runners home from third with less than two outs and Texas’s attempts to wean themselves off the homer heavy “all or nothing” approach. Per manager Ron Washington, "These guys have been so used to banging that it's hard for them to take that shorter stroke. It's not going to be easy to get it out of their system. But we will."

I watched that game, and, this being a family blog and all, I can’t tell you what I was yelling at the tv. What I can tell you is that hitting with runners on third is not the biggest problem afflicting the Rangers.

I don’t have the stats with less than two outs, but I’ve compared the Rangers to the American League in all man-on-third situations to see how effective they are at bringing runners home. The second and third columns in the table below are Others Batted In per Plate Apperance. Thus, if the hitter homers, his run doesn’t count. I’ve also deducted intentional walks from the plate appearances for the purpose of this exercise. Multiplying the difference in Texas’s and the AL’s OBI/PA by Texas’s number of appearances in each situation results in the Rangers’ run deficit or surplus relative to the league as a whole.

Base Situation (1/2/3)	Texas OBI/PA	AL OBI/PA	Difference	Texas PAs	Texas Run Deficit
- - 3	26%	30%	-4%	27	(1.2)
1 - 3	58%	49%	9%	31	2.9
- 2 3	27%	50%	-23%	11	(2.5)
1 2 3	68%	74%	-6%	22	(1.3)

TOTAL RUN DEFICIT: -2.1

Texas’s inability to hit with runners on third has cost the team about 0.1 runs per game. I’m not suggesting that 0.1 runs is nothing. Over the course of a season, that extra 0.1 is worth almost two wins. However, Texas’s hitting in these situations is not close to being a catastrophe.

Posted by Lucas at 08:31 PM

April 23, 2007

Notes On Laird

Finally the unquestioned #1 catcher in his fifth season, Gerald Laird has posted a hideous line of .104/.185/.146 in 15 games. After all this time, Laird still has only 574 MLB plate appearances, so trendspotting is a risky endeavor, but what the heck:

1. Does Laird have a career history of poor performance as the regular catcher?

To test this theory, I compared games in which he started on the previous day (that’s day, not just the previous game) to those in which he had at least one day of rest. I eliminated games in which he appeared as a late-inning sub or pinch hitter.

I expected to see a letdown as an everyday player, but it doesn’t exist:

Laird after playing the previous day:
.253/.314/.333 in 194 plate appearances

Laird after at least one day of rest:
.241/.287/.391 in 371 appearances

Laird has hit for more power with rest but also for a slightly lower average and with a higher strikeout rate (23% vs 17%).

2. Is Laird seeing/swinging at pitches differently this season?

Yes. Laird’s awful start has coincided with increased patience. From 2003-2006, he averaged 3.7 pitches per appearance. In 2007, he’s improved to 4.2.

Through 2006, 28% of the strikes delivered to Laird were of the looking variety. In 2007, it’s increased to 34%. That extra 6% equates to 14 additional watched strikes this season in 54 appearances.

Laird swung at 32% of first pitches during his first four seasons. That number has decreased to 20% in 2007.

The operative word is “coincided.” I’m not about to suggest Laird’s scuffling is a function of increased patience. That said, the trend is worth watching. And again, Laird doesn’t have a lengthy history, so don’t take this analysis as holy writ.

3. Does Laird have more serious problems than how often he rests or whether he swings at the first pitch?

He sure does. One: Laird already had a poor track record against righties (.224/.282/.345 through ‘06) and has done nothing to improve it. Two: Laird had always pounded lefties (.355/.384/.520) but is 0-11 against them this season.

Posted by Lucas at 06:09 PM

April 18, 2007

Wilkerson, Again

After both recent posts in which I spoke ill of Brad Wilkerson, he immediately followed with a terrific game.

Therefore, tomorrow I will launch a 149-part series entitled, "Brad Wilkerson, Dog Kicker."

Posted by Lucas at 01:31 AM

April 16, 2007

More On Wilkerson

As I mentioned last week, Brad Wilkerson’s problem in 2006 wasn’t staring at strike three, it was inability to make contact throughout the count. Pitch data available from BaseballReference.com confirms this:

Year	2001-2005	2006
Plate Appearances	2,690	365
Pitches / Appearances	4.28	4.19
Strikes as % of pitches	59%	62%
-- % Looking	34%	29%
-- % Swinging and missed	16%	23%
-- % Swinging and fouled	26%	26%
-- % Swinging and hit into play	24%	22%
% of strikes swung at	66%	71%
% of all pitches swung at	39%	44%
% of pitches made contact with when swinging	75%	67%
% of appearances swinging at first pitch	16%	19%

From 2001-2005, 59% of the pitches thrown to Wilkerson were strikes, and he swung and missed 16% of those strikes. In 2006, the strike percentage increased to 62%, and the percentage of those he whiffed rocketed to 23%. Wilkerson saw 1,529 pitches in his abbreviated 2006 season, meaning that he swung and missed an additional 97 pitches compared to previous years. He only played in 95 games, so that’s an extra missed pitch every game.

In 2006, Wilkerson also swung at all pitches more frequently (44% vs. 39% during 2001-2005) but made contact less often (67% vs. 75%). As noted in last week’s post, Wilkerson put the first pitch into play less often than any of 37 batters I surveyed. Yet he actually swung at the first pitch 3% more frequently than during 2001-2005.

Is there hope? Actually, yes. Wilkerson’s line of .222/.313/.370 isn’t much different than what he offered in 2006, but his strike/contact statistics have generally reverted to earlier years:

Year	2001-2005	2007
Plate Appearances	2,690	32
Pitches / Appearances	4.28	4.50
Strikes as % of pitches	59%	57%
-- % Looking	34%	35%
-- % Swinging and missed	16%	17%
-- % Swinging and fouled	26%	24%
-- % Swinging and hit into play	24%	23%
% of strikes swung at	66%	65%
% of all pitches swung at	39%	37%
% of pitches made contact with when swinging	75%	74%
% of appearances swinging at first pitch	16%	19%

Posted by Lucas at 06:57 PM

April 10, 2007

Is Wilkerson Toast?

Brad Wilkerson’s game-ending at-bat against Jon Papelbon Sunday night was about as sad a display as you’ll ever see. Certainly, Papelbon has a habit of making hitters look stupid, but Wilkerson wouldn’t have made contact even if he’d been allowed ten strikes. Honestly, he looks like a pitcher sometimes.

It’s nothing new. Wilkerson struggled with a sore shoulder immediately upon joining the Rangers, and his tenure as leadoff hitter ended after just eight games. The salt in the wound was Alfonso Soriano’s rejuvenation as a Senator after two lackluster years in Texas. It doesn’t help that Soriano looks like an athlete and Wilkerson looks… well, doughy. Not that Wilkerson isn’t athletic. I’m just sayin’.

Presumably, in 2007 Wilkerson’s renewed health would pay dividends. Alas, the early returns are not promising. Wilkerson is known for taking the count deep, resulting in plenty of walks and strikeouts. Before joining Texas, his strikeouts weren’t a serious problem. Despite ranking among the top five in strikeouts in the NL from 2002-2005, Wilkerson consistently reached based at about a .370 rate and supplied plenty of doubles and a decent number of home runs. As a Ranger, his OBP hovers around .300 and he strikes out more than ever.

Using 2006 stats, I reviewed his and others’ performances in four categories:

1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch.

2. Percentage of PAs with a two-strike count.

3. Percentage of PAs with an 0-2 count.

4. Percentage of PAs in which the batter struck out without ever taking ball one.

The first two stats don’t indicate much on their own. Although hitters tend to do very well when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, a high percentage by itself does not indicate does not indicate a good hitter. Recognizing and taking advantage of a fat first pitch is the hallmark of a great hitter, but swinging at too many first pitches indicates lack of discretion. Likewise, having a high number of two-strike counts isn’t bad in and of itself.

Conversely, too many 0-2 counts are cause for concern. Hitters are at a huge disadvantage on an 0-2 count. Even very patient hitters who walk often tend to avoid them. Finally, striking out without ever seeing a ball outside the zone is an obvious failure.

For purposes of comparing hitters to Wilkerson, I couldn’t find a database of breakdowns of batter performance by ball-strike count, so I built an abbreviated one using four cohorts:

BB Kings (clever, no?): Ten batting-title qualifiers with the best walk rates in 2006. Wilkerson has walked over 13% of his career plate appearances, an excellent rate.

The group includes David Ortiz, Jason Giambi, Travis Hafner, Manny Ramirez, Nick Johnson, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell.

K Kings: Ten batters with the highest strikeouts ratios in 2006. Wilkerson would have joined this group had he achieved enough appearances.

This group consists of Thome, Dunn and Burrell (also BB Kings), Curtis Granderson, Richie Sexson, Jhonny Peralta, Bill Hall, Ryan Howard, Andy LaRoche, and Geoff Jenkins.

Hackers: Ten batters with the worst walk-to-strikeout ratios in 2006. Wilkerson is definitely not a hacker, at least as I’ve defined the term here. I’m attempting to pick a group of hitters ostensibly inferior to Wilkerson to see how he measures up.

The Hackers are Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Francoeur, Preston Wilson, Shea Hillenbrand, Craig Monroe, Pedro Feliz, Jacque Jones, Ivan Rodriguez, AJ Pierzynski, and Clint Barmes. (Three Tigers in this group.)

Rangers: The top eight Rangers in plate appearances in 2006. All the other group consist of outliers; the Rangers should represent a broader mix of talents.

The Rangers are Barajas. Teixeira, Kinsler, Young, Blalock, DeRosa, Matthews and Mench.

With overlap, the comparison groups consist of 35 players. For each stat, I’ll list Wilkerson, the players with the highest and lowest percentages, and the averages of each cohort. Again, these are 2006 statistics.

1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch

Category	1st-pitch action
J Francoeur	21%
Average of Hackers	15%
Average of Rangers	12%
Average of K Kings	10%
Average of BB Kings	9%
B Abreu	5.2%
B Wilkerson	4.9%

2. Percentage of plate appearances with two strikes

Player	2-Strike Counts
P Feliz	39%
Average of Hackers	44%
Average of Rangers	45%
Average of BB Kings	51%
Average of K Kings	53%
B Hall	58%
B Wilkerson	59%

3. Percentage of plate appearances with an 0-2 count

Category	0-2 Counts
P Feliz	7%
Average of BB Kings	15%
Average of Rangers	17%
Average of Hackers	17%
Average of K Kings	18%
B Hall	21%
Wilkerson	25%

4. Percentage of plate appearances in which the batter struck out and never took a pitch for a ball.

Category	Ball-free strikeouts
B Abreu	1.5%
Average of BB Kings	2.5%
Average of Rangers	3.1%
Average of K Kings	4.1%
Average of Hackers	4.2%
R Cedeno	6.5%
B Wilkerson	6.6%

Wilkerson ranks last in every category. Compared to 35 other hitters, he was least likely to hit the first pitch into play, most likely to have a two-strike count, most likely to have an 0-2 count, and most likely to strike out without seeing ball one. As I mentioned previously, ranking last in the first two categories isn't problematic by itself. Bobby Abreu almost never puts the ball in play on the first pitch, and he's a stud.

No, the problem is the combination of all four stats. Wilkerson starts in a hole far too often without recovering. That’s not a result of too much patience. It’s inability to make contact. No hitter can survive without making good contact a reasonable percentage of the time, and Wilkerson has failed in that regard. That Wilkerson lapped the field in 0-2 counts is worst of all, because a batter with an 0-2 count is a dead man walking.

But that’s 2006, right? Old news. What about this year and Wilkerson’s healthy shoulder?

As I said, the early returns are not promising:

Brad Wilkerson	2006	2007
First-pitch action (% of PAs)	4.9%	5.0%
2-Strike Counts	59%	65%
0-2 Counts	25%	30%
Ball-free strikeouts	6.6%	15.0%

Wilkerson has declined in every category. I know it’s early, but he looks lost. I’ve previously predicted that the Rangers would (belatedly) replace Sammy Sosa’s attenuated bat by mid-May or June. At this rate, Wilkerson might not outlast Sosa.

Posted by Lucas at 05:43 PM

April 02, 2007

Predictions

AL West:
Los Angeles 87-75
Oakland 84-78
Texas 81-81
Seattle 77-85

That said, I see much more upside than downside. This team can win the division.

AL Central: Cleveland. While I was in Vegas last month, I put $20 on Texas (the university) to cover the spread against Kansas. They did, so I put $20 on Cleveland at 12-1 to win the pennant. Go Tribe!

AL East: New York.

AL Wild Card: Boston

NL West: San Diego

NL Central: Umm… I guess someone has to win. Chicago. Maybe St. Louis.

NL East: Philadelphia.

NL Wild Card: Mets. If not, the Dodgers. The NL is ridiculously tight this year. I’m not especially fond of any of these picks.

Postseason: New York over LA. Cleveland over Boston. New York over Cleveland. (There goes my bet.) -- San Diego over New York. Philadelphia over Chicago. San Diego over Philly. – Yankees win the Series.

Other predictions: Washington will not lose 100 games. I’m going to go against the popular sleeper and say Milwaukee doesn’t win 81 games. Detroit will drop to 83-85 wins. Tampa Bay will not avoid another 90-loss season. I don’t predict anyone to win 100 games, but if anyone does, it’ll be the Yankees.

Let’s find out how stupid I am in seven months.

Posted by Lucas at 08:56 PM

March 25, 2007

Taking The Fifth, Revisited

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan believes the competition for fifth starter is over, and Jamey Wright has prevailed. I can’t say I had any reaction at all when I heard the news in the midst of a fantasy draft Saturday night. He’d might as well have announced, “Drill a pilot hole before installing an anchor in sheetrock.”

I can’t find the link now, but I recall Wright saying he’d found a groove last season in San Francisco until Mike Matheny was injured. The stats bear him out:

Period	ERA	BABIP	HR%	BB%	SO%
Career	5.14	.307	2.5%	11.4%	10.9%
2006 with Matheny catching	4.56	.301	2.2%	6.2%	12.0%
2006 with others catching	5.45	.308	2.4%	11.3%	10.9%

His success with Matheny was no BABIP-induced fluke, and his bullpen didn’t have to bail him out (one of his two bequeathed runners scored). Cutting his walk rate to a terrific 2.4 per nine innings dropped his ERA to within spitting distance of league-average. Alas, with either Todd Greene or Eliezer Alfonzo as his receiver, his mechanics suffered and he offered the usual.

How much credit does Matheny actually deserve for Wright’s modicum of success? That slides into the grey areas of Matheny’s defensive reputation and how their personalities clicked. But if Wright says so, it’s at least partially true. However, it’s reasonably certain that Mike Matheny will not be catching Jamey Wright this season.

I realize no one is asking Wright to pitch 162 innings with a 4.50 ERA. (Actually, Jon Daniels did say, “[Wright] is capable of giving us 160-180 innings,” but he has to say stuff like that occasionally.) Also, the fifth-starter decision isn’t made in a vacuum; it includes injuries, depth problems at AAA, younger candidates with minor-league options, and Wright’s contractual ability to bail if he’s not on the 25-man roster. However, from all I’ve read, coaches and management seem pleased with him, irrespective of the extraneous issues factoring into his ascendance. They believe they can keep his mechanics in order.

Herein lies the problem. We have a pitcher:

with a career ERA+ of 93 in over 1,400 innings
who’s pitched exactly one season of at least 162 innings and league-average ERA in his career (six years ago)
who’s allowed opponents an OBP of .369 outside of Coors Field
who’s permitted 5.2 BB+HBP per nine innings
who’s been released fives times during the season or Spring Training
and who’s been cut rather than granted arbitration five other times.

We also have an organization that, during the past nine years:

has posted a better-than-league-average ERA only twice,
and has developed exactly one homegrown pitcher who’s thrown at least 162 league-average innings (Doug Davis, 2001).

And Texas is going to fix Jamey Wright? Pin a medal on Mark Connor if that happens.

Posted by Lucas at 01:14 PM

March 18, 2007

The Real Roster Crunch

The battle for fifth starter has three contestants: Jamey Wright, Bruce Chen, and Kameron Loe. A related issue: What is Texas going to do with all the starting pitchers who don’t make the Opening Day roster? Assuming Wright wins out, I see the following potential starters in Oklahoma:

Edinson Volquez
Josh Rupe
John Koronka
John Rheinecker
A.J. Murray
Thomas Diamond
Kameron Loe
Bruce Chen
Francisco Cruceta
Mike Wood
(And maybe others I’ve forgotten)

The situation may partially resolve itself. Rheinecker might start the season on the Disabled List, Cruceta is out of options and can declare free agency once demoted, Texas may use Wood in relief, Texas could keep Diamond in AA for a few weeks, Chen might also leave (if his contract allows it – I’m not sure), etc.

Texas already has an excess of relievers, so using putative starters in relief roles only exacerbates the problem. Management looks to have a more difficult task deciding the AAA roster than Texas’s.

Posted by Lucas at 11:32 PM

March 17, 2007

Taking The Fifth

Joey Matschulat, the new guy over at Baseball Time in Arlington, describes Spring Training hero Jamey Wright as this year’s Pedro Astacio and includes some embarrassing quotes from Peter Gammons and Buck Showalter back in the day. Now, the nature of the internets is such that you can make anyone look foolish if you dig through enough old columns and quotes (me included, to be sure). But that doesn’t make it any less funny.

More to the point, Matschulat’s comparison is apt. We’re talking about someone who hasn’t pitched more than 100 league-average innings since 2000. Yes, his career ERA+ is better than Adam Eaton’s (also funny), but Sweet Fancy Moses, those peripherals! 4.4 walks per nine innings but only 4.8 strikeouts. As Colorado’s Aaron Cook has shown, a pitcher can succeed in a hitter’s park with both a low K rate and a high hit rate if he also cuts down on the walks and keeps the ball out of the cheap seats. Wright does neither.

Wright claims “I have a new delivery. I feel confident, I feel great. I feel like I can dominate,” and I’m not going to sit here in Austin and tell him he’s wrong. But when T.R. Sullivan says “Wright's growing fifth-starter candidacy is one of the big stories of camp,” that's when I reach for my tequila. And not the good stuff, either.

Posted by Lucas at 01:21 PM

March 15, 2007

Defenestration

Related to the “Sammy!” post of a few days ago, some thought on 40-man roster issues:

First, in a chat on Wednesday, DMN’s Evan Grant mentioned that the Rangers’ backup catcher isn’t in camp yet. That may be, but the names he threw out -- former Rangers Todd Greene and Sandy Alomar Jr. – do not impress. I’m not sure if Grant knew that Greene dislocated his shoulder last month and won’t play for at least another ten days or so. And Alomar… Texas has three potential backups already on the 40-man roster and none is better than 40-year-old Alomar? Pretty sad, if true.

Second, upon review of the present 40, the Rangers could easily make room for both Sosa and a middle infielder without outrighting one of their eight outfielders. The first player would be Alexi Ogando, who, like Omar Beltre, can’t enter the country because of a protracted visa problem. Sticking him on the restricted list frees one spot. One possibility for the second is pitcher Francisco Cruceta, who is out of options and appears to have no hope of making the final cut. Another is catcher Guillermo Quiroz, likewise out of options.

After those, the choices become less palatable: outfielder Victor Diaz and perhaps currently injured pitcher John Rheinecker. Trading Rick Bauer or Ron Mahay for a player not on the 40 would also create space.

Posted by Lucas at 10:09 AM

March 11, 2007

Sammy!

I (and others) have been predicting that Sammy Sosa will have a Phil Nevin-like performance and tenure with Texas: a fine March against mostly non-MLB pitchers, a mediocre April, a terrible May, and unemployment by June. The DMN’s Evan Grant has a slightly different outlook:

On Sammy: I think he's still on the roster in mid-June, but don't think he's reached 12 homers. I don't think he's still on the roster at that point because he's been a great addition to the lineup, but rather because the Rangers are holding their own regardless of his performance.

My rejoinder is that Texas was holding its own last May when it jettisoned Nevin. On the other hand, Nevin was horribly expensive and not a “name,” while Sosa will be cheap and is SAMMY SOSA! So, on further reflection, Grant’s prediction makes perfect sense. It’s just a question of whether Sosa can maintain an employment-level line of around .250/.320/.430.

In the immediate future, Sosa’s presence exacerbates a crowded outfield situation. The Rangers already had eight outfielders on the 40-man roster before signing Swingin’ Sammy (but only five infielders including the bound-for-Oklahoma Joaquin Arias). Further, all eight outfielders have MLB experience, and only Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz have less a full year under their belts.

Texas will need to add Sosa plus a middle infielder (probably Jerry Hairston). Thus, not only does Sosa force an experienced player to the minors, he also forces a player (or players) off the 40 and most likely out of the organization. During the past three years, Texas has not started a season with more than seven outfielders on the 40.

Now, I’m not going to shed any tears if Texas trades Victor Diaz for some demi-prospect, and I don’t think Jason Botts is Travis Hafner’s heir. But I do disagree with the idea that Sosa is a risk-free, upside-only proposition. The risk is that because he’s Sammy, he could hit terribly and still occupy the #5 slot for a couple of months. That could cost Texas a game or two in the standings of a very winnable AL West.

(Lone Star Ball has a lengthy take on Jason Botts here.)

Posted by Lucas at 12:49 PM

February 24, 2007

Wanting More

Here’s where I pick on Victor Rojas even though I like his work on the radio. From an interview with John Vittas:

Q: Do you see Sammy Sosa batting 5th and making meaningful contributions for this ball club in 2007?

Rojas: Well, I’m rooting for him both from the standpoint of a player trying to get his career back on track and for the Rangers because they need a guy to hit in the middle of the lineup. They don’t think that they need a 35-40 homerun type of guy to protect Mark Teixeira. They need someone who’s going to hit 15-20 and drive in 80 or 90 runs to help the team.

If true, Texas had the very thing they “needed” last year. It’s name was Hank Blalock, and he hit 16 homers with 89 RBI, mostly while batting fifth and trailing Teixeira in the lineup.

Blalock had 646 plate appearances last year, not all batting fifth, but let’s use that as a basis for comparison. Per 646 PAs, the average American League #5 hitter had 24 homers and 96 RBI. Only one team had fewer than 17 homers and 82 RBI (amazingly, the Boston Red Sox.) A team should demand more from the #5 spot. Any vaguely competent hitter (or group of hitters) should collect 80 or more RBI simply because of the opportunity-rich environment.

You go back to two years ago when this team hit all those homeruns but didn’t win a lot of games. Now, you’ve got Ian Kinsler who’s capable of getting on base, Michael Young can do it, and Kenny Lofton to name a few.

I get all tingly when baseball people tout on-base percentage, but dreadful pitching is the reason Texas “hit all those homeruns but didn’t win a lot of games” in 2005. Remember those 300 innings from Chan Ho Park, Pedro Astacio, Ryan Drese and Ricardo Rodriguez? Good times.
Incidentally, greedy fan that I am, I want on-base specialists and “all those home runs” in the same season.

It’s just a matter of how many runs the 4, 5, and 6 guys in the lineup can produce, especially with two outs in an inning. I’m not a big numbers guy but it’s easy to look back and tell that two out hits just haven’t been there for the Rangers…

With runners in scoring position and two out, Texas ranked third in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Where the Rangers failed is in creating those opportunities: they ranked 11th in RISP/2out appearances. If Lofton and company can get on base and Blalock can find himself circa 2004-2005, Blalock might drive in 110 runs. And there will be much rejoicing.

Posted by Lucas at 06:53 PM

January 20, 2007

Pitchers OPS+ and Hitter Counterparts

Here’s a fun little game: turning every pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines for Ranger pitcher who faced at least 100 batters. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right. If none of the three qualified for the batting title, I listed a fourth who did. Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by ranking the sums of the squares of the differences in average, on-base percentage and slugging between pitcher and hitter. Now that I’ve put you to sleep with the previous sentence, the list:

Pitcher	Opposing AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS	Opposing AVG+/OBP+/SLG+ -- OPS+	Most Comparable Batters ('06 Stats Only)
W. Littleton	.189/.275/.262 -- .538	68 / 81 / 59 -- 40	Jerry Hairston, Abraham Nunez, Paul Bako, (Clint Barmes)
A. Otsuka	.241/.276/.318 -- .594	87 / 81 / 71 -- 52	Miguel Cairo, Neifi Perez, Cesar Izturis, (Ronny Cedeno)
J. Benoit	.224/.314/.310 -- .624	81 / 92 / 70 -- 62	Brandon Fahey, Matt Treanor, Alex Cora, (Adam Everett)
S. Feldman	.266/.324/.373 -- .697	96 / 95 / 84 -- 79	Julio Franco, Jack Wilson, Chone Figgins
F. Cordero	.265/.325/.395 -- .720	96 / 95 / 89 -- 84	Randy Winn, Jason Michaels, Jeff Conine
C. Wilson	.234/.326/.395 -- .722	85 / 96 / 89 -- 85	Jason Varitek, Joe Borchard, Chuck Finley, (Jhonny Peralta)
R. Bauer	.272/.338/.381 -- .718	99 / 99 / 85 -- 84	Adam Kennedy, Sean Casey, Chone Figgins
J. Rupe	.287/.344/.374 -- .718	104 / 101 / 84 -- 85	Nick Punto, Shannon Stewart, Mark Loretta
K. Millwood	.272/.317/.418 -- .735	99 / 93 / 94 -- 87	Kevin Mench, Jesse Barfield, Omar Infante
R. Mahay	.250/.335/.412 -- .747	91 / 98 / 92 -- 90	Matt Stairs, Cliff Floyd, Jose Bautista, (Hank Blalock)
V. Padilla	.266/.338/.419 -- .757	96 / 99 / 94 -- 93	Julio Lugo, Chris Burke, Cory Snyder, (Tony Graffanino)
R. Tejeda	.288/.360/.438 -- .797	104 / 106 / 98 -- 104	Edgar Renteria, Russ Martin, Connor Jackson
J. Wasdin	.266/.355/.468 -- .822	96 / 104 / 105 -- 109	Austin Kearns, Jim Edmonds, Aubrey Huff
J. Koronka	.294/.356/.468 -- .824	107 / 104 / 105 -- 109	Ryan Garko, Ryan Zimmerman, Magglio Ordonez
K. Loe	.317/.359/.486 -- .845	115 / 105 / 109 -- 114	Andrew Ethier, Mike Lamb, Gary Matthews
A. Eaton	.299/.366/.483 -- .848	108 / 107 / 108 -- 115	Andrew Ethier, Mike Lamb, Jose Reyes
J. Rheinecker	.349/.393/.477 -- .869	126 / 115 / 107 -- 122	Freddy Sanchez, Derek Jeter, Russ Johnson
E. Volquez	.359/.427/.538 -- .965	130 / 125 / 121 -- 146	Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Bard

UPDATE: Oops. Anyone notice that C.J. Wilson's third comparable is Chuck Finley? That should be Steve.

Posted by Lucas at 12:33 PM

January 04, 2007

Summary of Ranger Hitters By Fielding Position

Here’s a summary of the information presented throughout the last month. I use a two-year park factor and apply two-thirds of the weight to the most recent season. The Ballpark hasn’t been as crazily hitter-friendly during 2005-2006 as it prior years. The factors are:

Average: 1.005
On-Base %: 1.005
Slugging: 1.020

The Ballpark has a Runs factor of 1.037.

That “P” in front of OPS+ and other stats means “position;” it calculates how Rangers perform relative to other players in the league at a particular fielding position. Also, keep in mind that if you divide the team’s OPS by the league-average OPS, you will not derive OPS+. OPS+ is calculated by adding OBP+ and SLG+, then subtracting 100 (which is why, as you’ve probably noticed, some really terrible hitters have a negative OPS+).

Positions ordered by OPS+.

Pos.	Park-Adjusted League-Average (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	Texas Rangers (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	P-AVG+	AL Rank	P-OBP+	AL Rank	P-SLG+	AL Rank	P-OPS+	AL Rank
2B	.281/.333/.402 -- .735	.292/.357/.459 -- .816	104	6	107	2	114	2	121	2
SS	.281/.333/.418 -- .751	.307/.349/.441 -- .790	109	4	105	5	105	4	110	4
1B	.280/.353/.476 -- .829	.275/.364/.505 -- .869	98	6	103	5	106	6	109	6
CF	.276/.335/.443 -- .778	.292/.349/.457 -- .806	106	3	104	4	103	6	107	5
LF	.281/.349/.459 -- .807	.273/.341/.469 -- .810	97	11	98	7	102	6	100	6
C	.271/.332/.425 -- .756	.274/.313/.440 -- .753	101	7	94	11	104	8	98	8
3B	.270/.340/.451 -- .790	.282/.348/.429 -- .777	104	5	102	4	95	9	98	8
RF	.287/.350/.478 -- .828	.271/.319/.424 -- .743	94	11	91	13	89	14	80	14
DH	.267/.351/.481 -- .832	.238/.309/.410 -- .719	89	13	88	13	85	12	73	12
Team	.276/.341/.446 -- .784	.278/.338/.446 -- .784	101	8	99	9	100	7	99	3

Posted by Lucas at 05:44 PM

December 31, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Designated Hitters

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
P. Nevin	30%	.730	75	.309	88	.421	88	25	9	31	10.9%	19.3%
H. Blalock	20%	.532	29	.244	69	.288	60	9	2	9	6.3%	22.2%
M. Stairs	12%	.653	57	.273	78	.380	79	6	3	10	6.6%	25.0%
K. Mench	9%	.701	70	.321	91	.380	79	6	1	3	9.1%	7.3%
J. Botts	8%	.693	69	.321	91	.372	77	8	1	5	15.7%	33.3%
B. Wilkerson	7%	.527	27	.227	65	.300	62	3	1	1	9.1%	31.8%
M. Young	5%	1.396	232	.543	155	.853	177	7	2	10	2.9%	8.6%
C. Lee	5%	.981	135	.400	114	.581	121	6	1	5	8.8%	2.9%
5 others	4%	.839	102	.357	102	.481	100	1	1	2	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.719	73	.309	88	.410	85	71	21	76	8.7%	19.7%
AL Average	-	.832	-	.351	-	.481	-	83	28	93	11.1%	18.8%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	12	-	13	-	12	9	9	10	9	10

Texas DHes leapt from the worst OPS+ in the American League in 2005 to third-worst last season. Are you not suitably impressed? This next bit of information won’t help. Erase Michael Young’s softball line (.529/.543/.853 in seven games) and the remainder drops to – yikes -- .220/.290/.383. Remember, these are “designated hitters.”

As I’d mentioned in May, Nevin’s everyday presence in the middle of the order was a gloomily foregone conclusion despite mounting evidence that he wouldn’t perform. Texas relieved him of his duties just past the season’s one-quarter mark, after which time, for the most part, the situation worsened.

With nothing left to prove in the minors, Jason Botts received only a handful of starts over several weeks before management shuttled him back to Oklahoma. Wilkerson and Mench split the majority of DH starts for a month in a quasi-platoon while Mark DeRosa started every day (deservedly). Matt Stairs came, did nothing, and left. An injured Hank Blalock started mostly at DH during the final three weeks and reached his nadir as a batter. Only Young and Carlos Lee hit with authority.

AL Designated Hitters

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	1.016	150	.412	119	.604	131	114	45	137
Boston	1.003	143	.406	116	.597	127	109	50	131
Chicago Sox	.975	133	.408	116	.566	117	117	42	112
Oakland	.881	116	.368	106	.513	110	87	40	121
LA Angels	.849	108	.356	102	.492	106	84	28	96
NY Yankees	.842	106	.369	106	.473	100	104	30	114
Toronto	.811	94	.338	97	.473	97	65	16	69
Kansas City	.787	89	.348	97	.439	92	70	21	87
Detroit	.768	88	.309	88	.460	99	85	27	90
Baltimore	.754	85	.333	95	.421	90	63	16	71
Tampa Bay	.745	82	.323	92	.422	89	74	25	78
Texas	.719	73	.309	88	.410	85	71	21	76
Minnesota	.680	71	.316	92	.364	78	61	8	60
Seattle	.667	67	.300	87	.366	80	59	17	61

Best-hitting DHes: Cleveland has some guy named Hafner. I hear he's pretty good.

Worst: Seattle, a ghastly amalgam of Carl Everett, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and assorted others. Not to suggest Seattle’s acquisition of Jose Vidro was wise, but he will be an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 05:39 PM

December 29, 2006

Notes On The McCarthy-Danks Trade

(I’ve been out-of-pocket for a few days, so if I’m repeating someone else’s observations, I apologize…)

Age and Level
As mentioned by Adam yesterday, McCarthy isn’t two years older than Danks, only seventeen months. Because ages as applied to seasons are determined by a player’s age as of July 1, McCarthy is listed as two years older. Here is how McCarthy and Danks have advanced through minors in terms of age:

Age	McCarthy	Danks
18	Rookie	Rookie, Short-Season
19	Rookie, Short-Season	Low A, High A
20	Short-Season, Low A, High A	High A, AA
21	High A, AA	AA, AAA
22	AAA, Majors	---
23	Majors	---

Danks is only about a year ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy debuted in the Majors at the age of 22 years, 10 months. Danks will turn 22 next April.

Minor Performance
McCarthy clearly has pitched better than Danks in the minors. In addition an ERA nearly a full run lower than Danks, all the peripheral stats favor McCarthy.

Minors	RA	ERA	Opp. Avg.	HR%	BB%	SO%
McCarthy	3.92	3.39	.236	2.3%	4.9%	28.5%
Danks	4.96	4.33	.256	2.6%	8.6%	24.1%

But, stats can mislead. Many pitchers with good minor-league stats in aggregate have a shaky combination of outstanding stats in the low minors and mediocre performances in AA and AAA. To place more importance on higher levels, I created a weighted average, giving a lower level in the minors only two-thirds the weight of the one above it. So, AA counts two-thirds as much as AAA, high-A counts two-thirds as much as AA, etc. By the time we hit bottom, the Rookie League gets only about one-seventh the credit of AAA.

Why two-thirds? Well... it seems reasonable. I’m sure I (or someone) could look into the stats and devise a better weight for each level, but for the purpose of this simple exercise, two-thirds will suffice. Now, how do McCarthy and Danks match up:

Minors, Weighted	RA	ERA	Opp. Avg.	HR%	BB%	SO%
McCarthy	3.94	3.71	.230	2.7%	5.6%	28.2%
Danks	5.35	4.58	.262	2.9%	8.9%	23.3%

Again, McCarthy runs the table, and Danks’s weighted RA jumps to an uncomfortable 5.35 (21% of his runs in AAA were unearned.)

Parks
Chicago’s US Cellular Field plays nearly as hitter-friendly as Texas’s Ballpark. Cellular had a run factor of 1.05 versus the Ballpark’s 1.08 in 2006. Cellular depresses singles, doubles and triples but allows more homers and walks. Translating McCarthy’s statistics to Arlington increases his ERA only by about 0.05.

Intentional Walks
Ozzie Guillen ordered more intentional walks than any AL team and more than nine NL teams last season. Nine of McCarthy’s 33 walks were intentional. He got off easy; Neal Cotts issued seven free passes in just 30 innings. Losing the IBBs decreases McCarthy’s walk rate from 3.5 to 2.6 per nine innings.

Luck
McCarthy has permitted an uncommonly low hit rate on balls in play of .252 in the Majors. The White Sox as a whole allowed a .290 average on balls in play during 2005-2006. Perhaps McCarthy has a genuine ability to depress hits, but the probability of him continuing to allow an average 48 points below his teammates is very remote. Giving him a team-average hit rate in 2006 results in ten more hits allowed and a full run added to his ERA.

~~Earned~~ Run Average
Pitchers who allow a high number of unearned runs usually aren’t as good as their ERAs would suggest. For example, in 2005 Kevin Millwood had an ERA of 2.86 but allowed eleven unearned runs (15% of his total), indicating his season was a bit of a fluke.

McCarthy has allowed zero unearned runs in 152 innings. He has a career ERA+ of 104, but his RA+ is 112. In 2006, he had a Component ERA (a Bill James creation that estimates what the pitcher’s ERA “should be” based on peripheral stats) of just 4.10 compared to his actual ERA of 4.68. (Note that the Component ERA does not compensate for his abnormally low hit rate on balls in play. Again, giving him a typical hit rate increases his ERA and RA by a run.)

Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM

December 28, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Right Fielders

Here’s your disaster.

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. DeRosa	37%	.783	90	.347	99	.436	91	30	4	29	7.3%	19.6%
K. Mench	35%	.824	99	.345	99	.479	100	26	10	36	6.6%	14.0%
N. Cruz	20%	.626	51	.261	75	.365	76	14	5	21	5.3%	22.6%
9 others	7%	.485	17	.208	60	.277	58	3	0	9	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.743	80	.319	91	.424	89	73	19	95	6.3%	19.4%
AL Average	-	.828	-	.350	-	.478	-	92	24	94	8.2%	16.7%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	14	-	13	-	14	14	10	7	14	11

Texas’s variety pack of right fielders posted a line of .271/.319/.424. That may only sound “bad,” not “really really bad,” but right field is for offense. Among the eight fielding positions plus DH, AL right fielders ranked first in batting average, third in OBP and second in slugging percentage.

The Rangers did not keep up. They ranked next-to-last in the league in on-base percentage, last in slugging, last in runs scored, and last in walk rate. Mark DeRosa batted .295/.347/.436, mostly later in the season after he’d cooled off. Now, that line compares quite favorably to DeRosa’s previous output from 1998 to 2005, but as an American League right fielder in 2006, not so much. Kevin Mench basically held his ground, and Nelson Cruz had a tough rookie season.

AL Right Fielders

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Chicago Sox	.958	129	.376	107	.582	122	111	44	129
LA Angels	.885	118	.363	104	.522	114	91	33	116
Toronto	.876	110	.354	102	.522	108	104	28	111
Baltimore	.851	108	.354	102	.497	106	89	26	86
NY Yankees	.814	100	.357	103	.456	97	93	22	101
Detroit	.808	99	.344	99	.463	101	90	26	103
Minnesota	.796	99	.348	102	.447	97	109	20	104
Oakland	.793	98	.358	104	.435	94	87	18	93
Seattle	.778	97	.371	108	.407	90	99	10	53
Cleveland	.784	96	.339	98	.445	97	91	20	89
Tampa Bay	.795	93	.310	89	.485	103	83	33	76
Boston	.777	92	.352	101	.425	91	84	17	77
Kansas City	.777	87	.332	93	.445	94	88	16	81
Texas	.743	80	.319	91	.424	89	73	19	95

Best-hitting right fielders: Chicago’s Jermaine Dye lapped the field, including LA’s Vlad.

Worst: See above.

Posted by Lucas at 01:37 PM

December 25, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Center Fielders

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
G. Matthews	89%	.875	125	.375	112	.500	113	102	19	75	8.6%	13.8%
6 others	11%	.272	(29)	.134	40	.138	31	4	0	7	2.4%	40.2%
TEAM	-	.807	107	.349	104	.457	103	106	19	82	8.0%	16.7%
AL Average	-	.778	-	.335	-	.443	-	95	19	74	7.5%	16.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	5	-	4	-	6	3	8	4	6	7

I’d guess Gary Matthews has no more than a 10% chance of justifying his contract. That’s not to diminish his outstanding final season in Texas. Center field has plagued the Rangers since the team logo was a cowboy hat perched on a baseball (see upper left). For one season, Matthews eradicated that plague with solid defense and an astonishing bat. New center fielder Kenny Lofton may outhit Matthews next year, but he won’t surpass Matthews’s 2006.

Laynce Nix, Adrian Brown, Jerry Hairston, Freddy Guzman, and Brad Wilkerson (1 at-bat) combined to go 9-for-80 (.113) with two walks. Good times.

AL Center Fielders

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	0.920	142	0.378	115	0.541	127	136	29	78
Toronto	0.915	132	0.364	109	0.551	123	106	34	113
Minnesota	0.803	112	0.334	102	0.468	109	102	32	99
NY Yankees	0.806	110	0.345	104	0.461	106	121	26	84
Texas	0.807	107	0.349	104	0.457	103	106	19	82
Detroit	0.777	104	0.330	99	0.447	105	101	22	76
Tampa Bay	0.758	96	0.314	94	0.443	102	94	21	79
LA Angels	0.733	95	0.345	104	0.388	91	87	10	71
Oakland	0.736	95	0.333	101	0.403	94	83	11	76
Kansas City	0.741	92	0.351	103	0.390	89	83	8	62
Boston	0.713	87	0.326	98	0.388	89	87	13	66
Baltimore	0.714	85	0.297	89	0.418	96	83	21	67
Seattle	0.656	75	0.294	89	0.362	86	80	11	42
Chicago Sox	0.672	73	0.302	90	0.370	83	67	12	47

Best-hitting center fielders: Cleveland, in the form of Grady Sizemore.

Worst: The Chicago White Sox, a combination of Brian Anderson (a terrific fielder who couldn’t hit) and Rob Mackowiak (overmatched in center but adequate at the plate). Seattle gets dishonorable mention with its three-headed monster of Jeremy Reed, Willie Bloomquist and Adam Jones (until Ichiro! took over).

Posted by Lucas at 02:01 AM

December 23, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Left Fielders

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
B. Wilkerson	45%	.777	92	.325	93	.452	99	52	14	41	10.9%	32.0%
C. Lee	33%	.882	117	.364	104	.517	113	36	8	30	7.7%	11.3%
K. Mench	9%	.798	97	.333	96	.464	101	4	1	11	5.1%	10.2%
J. Hairston	8%	.686	74	.360	103	.326	71	8	0	3	14.0%	16.0%
6 others	5%	.813	99	.313	90	.500	109	3	1	5	6.3%	15.6%
TEAM	-	.809	100	.341	98	.469	102	103	24	90	9.3%	21.2%
AL Average	-	.807	-	.349	-	.459	-	94	20	85	8.9%	15.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	6	-	7	-	6	3	5	6	6	13

On the whole, Texas left fielders didn’t pull the team underwater as far as you might think. Wilkerson, Mench, and Hairston (who received fifty[!] plate appearances in left – at least he got on base…) did, on their own, but then Carlos Lee arrived and messed things up by batting well. For the real batting disaster, one must look over to right field.

AL Left Fielders

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Boston	.977	145	.423	122	.553	123	101	36	105
Seattle	.871	122	.354	103	.516	118	105	33	124
Oakland	.849	114	.355	103	.494	111	109	31	86
Toronto	.850	112	.395	114	.455	98	96	15	71
Tampa Bay	.817	104	.344	99	.473	105	97	20	83
Texas	.809	100	.341	98	.469	102	103	24	90
NY Yankees	.778	97	.360	105	.419	93	102	13	72
LA Angels	.777	97	.335	97	.442	100	83	19	91
Detroit	.782	96	.303	87	.479	109	94	34	98
Kansas City	.791	95	.342	97	.449	99	102	16	94
Minnesota	.746	91	.329	97	.417	94	74	17	78
Chicago Sox	.720	80	.341	98	.379	82	98	4	57
Cleveland	.704	80	.311	91	.393	89	98	13	76
Baltimore	.682	73	.322	93	.359	80	60	7	66

Best-hitting left fielders: Boston. Manny. Seattle ranks a surprising second thanks to a terrific effort from Raul Ibanez.

Worst: Baltimore. Jeff Conine and Brandon Fahey make a bad corner-outfield tandem? Well knock me down with a feather! (Fahey, by the way, was a Texas Longhorn on the ’02 championship team.)

Posted by Lucas at 09:33 AM

December 18, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Shortstops

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. Young	95%	.785	109	.346	104	.438	105	86	12	93	6.7%	13.2%
4 others	5%	.897	140	.412	124	.485	116	10	0	5	2.9%	8.8%
TEAM	-	.790	110	.349	105	.441	105	96	12	98	6.5%	13.0%
AL Average	-	.751	-	.333	-	.418	-	85	13	74	6.9%	14.5%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	4	-	5	-	4	5	8	2	9	5

After four consecutive years of increasingly stunning improvement culminating in last year’s astounding line of .331/.385/.513, Michael Young finally regressed, hitting .314/.356/.459 overall and “only” .303/.346/.438 as a shortstop. As such, he declined from brilliant to very good, lagging only behind the Big Three of Jeter, Tejada, and Carlos Guillen.

Young doesn’t require a backup, but those who did squeeze in a few innings at shortstop hit very well (dollops of Mark DeRosa, Joaquin Arias, and Jerry Hairston).

AL Shortstops

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Detroit	.893	143	.393	118	.500	124	105	19	81
NY Yankees	.893	142	.412	125	.481	117	126	15	100
Baltimore	.866	133	.382	115	.484	118	101	22	91
Texas	.790	110	.349	105	.441	105	96	12	98
LA Angels	.742	102	.338	102	.403	100	102	9	79
Minnesota	.713	97	.342	105	.372	92	60	3	50
Seattle	.708	95	.310	94	.398	100	72	8	48
Oakland	.710	94	.333	101	.376	93	82	13	65
Cleveland	.699	92	.315	96	.384	96	88	14	78
Toronto	.716	90	.321	97	.395	93	81	12	67
Chicago Sox	.712	87	.271	81	.442	105	66	24	92
Tampa Bay	.690	86	.305	92	.386	94	80	16	53
Boston	.674	82	.306	92	.368	90	70	10	63
Kansas City	.575	53	.261	77	.314	76	58	9	68

Best-hitting shortstops: Detroit (mostly the aforementioned Guillen, who hit .320/.400/.519) bested New York (Derek Jeter) in OPS, but the Yankees’ advantage in OBP makes him best by a slight margin.

Worst: Kansas City’s Angel Berroa just barely qualified for the batting title with 503 plate appearances and still managed to make almost 400 outs. KC’s team line of .229/.261/.314 and P-OPS+ 53 were the worst in the American League at any position. In essence, Kansas City’s shortstop’s hit about as well as Eric Milton (.224/.250/.327).

Posted by Lucas at 06:31 PM

December 14, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Third Basemen

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
H. Blalock	75%	.777	98	.346	102	.431	96	67	14	80	8.4%	13.6%
M. DeRosa	24%	.767	95	.345	102	.422	94	21	5	22	9.8%	19.0%
3 others	2%	.899	132	.455	134	.444	99	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM	-	.777	98	.348	102	.429	95	90	19	102	8.9%	14.7%
AL Average	-	.790	-	.340	-	.451	-	91	22	89	8.8%	16.1%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	4	-	9	8	10	3	4	6

Texas third basemen performed slightly better than I expected, finishing in the middle of the AL pack. Most of Hank Blalock’s death spiral occurred while DH’ing, and at third he at least reached base at an acceptable rate. Much more on him to come. Mark DeRosa spent much of the last month at third and had cooled off by then.

AL Third Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
NY Yankees	.909	133	.389	116	.520	117	117	36	124
Kansas City	.859	116	.366	106	.493	110	96	21	96
Boston	.823	110	.341	101	.482	109	88	24	90
Toronto	.820	107	.349	103	.472	104	105	35	110
Seattle	.775	102	.322	96	.453	106	91	25	91
Detroit	.785	102	.318	94	.467	108	86	27	85
Chicago Sox	.796	99	.320	94	.476	105	83	30	97
Texas	.777	98	.348	102	.429	95	90	19	102
Tampa Bay	.768	97	.334	99	.434	98	71	20	78
Oakland	.742	93	.335	100	.408	93	84	24	81
LA Angels	.736	91	.330	98	.405	93	99	16	69
Baltimore	.735	90	.342	101	.393	89	99	16	89
Minnesota	.703	85	.329	99	.374	86	93	8	64
Cleveland	.688	80	.309	92	.379	88	73	12	75

Best-hitting AL third basemen: Alex Rodriguez had a poor season (by his lofty standards) and was still, easily, the best-hitting third baseman in the league. Incidentally, the Silver Slugger award went to Joe Crede, who trailed Rodriguez in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, home runs, runs batted in, and walks. Voters consist of an apparently unengaged collection of league managers and coaches.

Worst: Cleveland scored 80 more runs than in 2005 in spite of Aaron Boone (.248/.311/.369) and Andy Marte (.226/.287/.421).

Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM

December 11, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Second Basemen

Second base has become the hitter’s graveyard. Among the nine AL positions (fielders plus DH), 2Bs had the fewest homers (by 34) and the worst walk rate. They ranked third in average but only seventh in OBP and dead last in slugging. John Hart must be aghast.

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
I. Kinsler	72%	.802	117	.347	104	.455	113	65	14	55	8.7%	13.9%
M. DeRosa	16%	1.018	175	.429	129	.589	146	20	3	15	7.8%	14.6%
D. Jimenez	9%	.692	89	.339	102	.353	88	6	1	8	13.6%	10.2%
3 others	3%	.417	16	.250	75	.167	41	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.816	121	.357	107	.459	114	93	18	78	9.0%	14.3%
AL Average	-	.735	-	.333	-	.402	-	83	11	71	6.7%	12.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	2	-	2	-	2	3	3	5	2	9

Happily, the Rangers bucked that trend. Ian Kinsler had not only a fine rookie season but a fine season among all second basemen. Of the fourteen AL 2Bs with the most plate appearances, Kinsler ranked seventh in average, sixth in OBP, and third in slugging. Only Tad Iguchi and Robinson Cano had more homers. Forget about potential. Kinsler already stands with the league’s best hitters at his position.

Kinsler didn’t qualify for the batting title because a thumb injury cost him several weeks. During that time, Rogers Hornsby arose from the dead and assumed the form of Mark DeRosa. I understand that Hornsby’s estate will receive a portion of DeRosa’s $13 million contract.

AL Second Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
NY Yankees	.813	123	.343	104	.470	119	80	14	99
Texas	.816	121	.357	107	.459	114	93	18	78
Chicago Sox	.772	109	.351	105	.420	104	117	20	86
Cleveland	.745	108	.335	102	.410	106	80	12	72
Seattle	.734	106	.330	101	.404	106	85	10	82
LA Angels	.734	104	.331	100	.403	104	62	7	77
Baltimore	.731	102	.339	102	.391	99	93	11	64
Kansas City	.743	101	.340	100	.403	101	104	8	62
Minnesota	.710	101	.353	109	.357	92	89	3	52
Detroit	.698	94	.328	99	.370	96	80	6	73
Boston	.698	93	.338	102	.361	92	82	7	61
Oakland	.675	88	.307	93	.368	94	73	11	66
Tampa Bay	.668	83	.282	85	.386	98	62	20	83
Toronto	.627	71	.307	93	.320	79	65	5	41

Best-hitting AL second basemen: The Yankees (a great Robinson Cano dragged down by Miguel Cairo and Nick Green) nudged Texas in OPS+, but Texas had a better indexed on-base percentage. It’s my blog, so I’ll give the award to Texas.

Worst: The Blue Jays by an unhealthy margin. For probably no reason, Aaron Hill hit .339/.392/.463 at short and .268/.329/.348 at second. His assistants, mostly Russ Adams and Edgardo Alfonzo, were execrable.

Posted by Lucas at 11:24 PM

December 08, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: First Basemen

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. Teixeira	98%	.885	113	.370	105	.515	108	99	33	110	12.5%	18.1%
4 others	2%	.143	(65)	.071	20	.071	15	1	0	0	0.0%	28.6%
TEAM	-	.869	109	.364	103	.505	106	100	33	110	12.2%	18.3%
AL Average	-	.829	-	.353	-	.476	-	85	25	96	9.3%	17.5%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	6	-	5	-	6	3	4	4	1	10

Through the season’s first 84 games, Mark Teixeira had eight homers and a .432 slugging percentage. Afterwards, 25 and .607. Despite his posting the worst rate stats since his rookie season, Texas 1Bs finished among the top half in OBP and slugging and fourth or better in runs, homers and RBI. Which is to say, a slightly down year from Teixeira is still pretty special. He turns 27 next April and may produce the titanic season I expected in 2006.

Teixeira drew twelve intentional walks last year, eighth-most in the AL. I cursorily attributed most of them to opponents wanting a desirable matchup against Hank Blalock, who followed Teixeira in the order in 71 games and batted .216/.281/.315 against lefthanders. In fact, only once did a team intentionally walk Teixeira to have a lefty face Blalock:

Date	Inning	Score	Outs	Runners	Next Batter	Result
Apr-09	b6	+2	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
Apr-11	t7	+3	2	--3	Nevin	lineout
Apr-20	t6	+1	1	-2-	Nevin	walk; Mench later doubled home a run
May-08	b5	+2	0	-2-	Nevin	flyout; Teixeira later scored
May-18	t7	+4	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
May-22	b7	+1	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
Jun-02	t7	tie	2	-2-	Blalock	groundout against lefty reliever Neal Cotts
Jul-03	b7	+2	1	-23	DeRosa	single, 2 RBI
Jul-21	t8	+3	0	-2-	DeRosa	lineout; Teixeira later scored
Jul-30	b4	+5	1	-2-	Laird	groundout; Teixeira later scored
Aug-08	t1	tie	1	-23	Blalock	grounded into double play against righty starter
Sep-15	b6	tie	2	-2-	Lee	lineout

Texas batted .090/.167/.090 immediately following IBBs to Teixeira, though he did score three runs.

AL First Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Minnesota	.970	139	.384	111	.586	128	101	38	140
Chicago Sox	.943	126	.387	109	.556	117	102	35	123
Cleveland	.910	125	.376	108	.534	117	99	31	118
Toronto	.905	117	.380	108	.524	109	93	26	95
Seattle	.847	110	.340	98	.507	112	78	36	110
Texas	.869	109	.364	103	.505	106	100	33	110
NY Yankees	.804	97	.348	100	.455	97	86	29	94
Baltimore	.785	94	.359	102	.426	92	79	18	84
Boston	.773	91	.359	102	.414	89	97	16	86
Kansas City	.774	87	.351	98	.423	90	82	13	96
Detroit	.754	86	.320	91	.434	95	76	23	89
Oakland	.737	83	.337	97	.400	87	77	23	79
Tampa Bay	.715	75	.315	90	.400	86	64	21	63
LA Angels	.664	65	.297	85	.367	80	59	11	61

Best-hitting 1Bs: Minnesota. AL MVP Justin Morneau led the way, and Mike Cuddyer had a small but significant assist (.455/.520/.1.045 in 25 appearances).

Worst: Los Angeles wisely moved Darin Erstad back to the outfield, but his replacements were even worse at the plate. Kendry Morales, Robb Quinlan, Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman combined to hit an abominable .255/.297/.367. LA’s first-sackers ranked last in the league in OBP, slugging, runs, homers and RBI. Good for them.

Posted by Lucas at 11:15 PM

December 03, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Catchers

The Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters returns with positional analyses.

In case you’re new to the game: You probably know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.

For Texas’s catchers, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other catchers. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .270/.330/.416. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .332 and a slugging percentage of .435 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages. Instead of OPS+, I use P-OPS+, the “P” standing for “position.”

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
R. Barajas	57%	.718	89	.302	91	.416	98	49	11	41	4.8%	14.0%
G. Laird	41%	.807	112	.332	100	.475	112	43	7	22	4.8%	21.0%
M. Ojeda	2%	.667	74	.250	75	.417	98	0	0	4	0.0%	25.0%
TEAM	-	.753	98	.313	94	.440	104	92	18	67	4.7%	17.1%
AL Average	-	.756	-	.332	-	.425	-	74	18	80	7.4%	15.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	11	-	8	2	6	11	12	10

AL catchers had an OPS+ of 93 relative to the entire league, better than I expected.

I’m inclined to believe that if a catcher is coming off a .298 OBP (overall) and a team offers him two years and $5+ million, maybe, just maybe, he should accept it. But I’m just an observer. Barajas hit 47 homers as a Ranger, about 45 more than I expected when Texas signed him to a minor-league deal in 2004. I called him “Todd Greene Lite” at the time and he ended up being… Todd Greene.

Gerald Laird certainly outhit Barajas, but a late-season decline left him with a very ordinary OBP (even for a catcher), leaving the team among the worst in the AL in that respect. He’d shown an adequate walk rate in the minors, so he has some room to improve. In essence, his thumb injury in May 2004 cost him over two years of regular play in the Majors. Remember who collided with him at home plate? Ken Harvey.

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Minnesota	.867	138	.401	124	.466	114	94	12	99
Cleveland	.810	121	.365	112	.445	109	79	18	98
NY Yankees	.812	118	.354	108	.458	110	72	25	105
Baltimore	.802	114	.342	103	.459	111	75	26	100
Toronto	.789	107	.333	101	.455	106	71	26	82
Detroit	.766	106	.324	98	.441	108	85	17	82
Seattle	.730	99	.310	95	.420	104	68	20	80
Texas	.753	98	.313	94	.440	104	92	18	67
LA Angels	.725	96	.314	95	.411	101	72	22	69
Chicago Sox	.733	93	.320	96	.413	97	75	18	79
Oakland	.698	92	.356	109	.343	83	81	3	60
Boston	.668	79	.299	90	.369	89	66	18	85
Tampa Bay	.661	77	.299	91	.362	87	53	13	52
Kansas City	.639	69	.293	87	.345	82	49	11	63

Teams are sorted by P-OPS+.

Best-hitting catchers: Minnesota , featuring AL MVP Joe Mauer. Oh, right…

Worst-hitting catchers: Kansas City ’s John Buck and Paul Bako hit badly enough that Jason Larue represented an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 12:30 PM

November 25, 2006

Summary of Ranger Hitters By Position in Batting Order

Here’s a summary of the information presented throughout the last month. For what it’s worth, I use a two-year park factor and apply two-thirds of the weight to the most recent season. The Ballpark hasn’t been as crazily hitter-friendly during 2005-2006 as it prior years. The factors are:

Average: 1.005
On-Base %: 1.005
Slugging: 1.020

The Ballpark has a Runs factor of 1.037.

That “L” in front of OPS+ and other stats means “lineup;” it calculates how Rangers perform relative to other players in the league at a particular spot in the batting order. Also, keep in mind that if you divide the team’s OPS by the league-average OPS, you will not derive OPS+. OPS+ is calculated by adding OBP+ and SLG+, then subtracting 100 (which is why, as you’ve probably noticed, some really terrible hitters have a negative OPS+).

Order	Park-Adjusted League-Average (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	Texas Rangers (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	L-AVG+	AL Rank	L-OBP+	AL Rank	L-SLG+	AL Rank	L-OPS+	AL Rank
1	.285/.351/.431 -- .782	.304/.361/.489 -- .850	107	3	103	5	114	3	116	4
2	.288/.346/.431 -- .777	.310/.356/.442 -- .798	108	2	103	5	103	6	105	6
3	.283/.358/.482 -- .840	.283/.351/.481 -- .832	100	5	98	7	100	7	98	7
4	.288/.369/.510 -- .878	.273/.360/.477 -- .837	95	10	98	9	94	12	91	10
5	.287/.359/.490 -- .849	.292/.348/.442 -- .790	102	6	97	10	90	12	87	11
6	.267/.325/.446 -- .772	.259/.314/.423 -- .737	97	10	97	9	95	10	91	10
7	.270/.324/.438 -- .762	.260/.324/.432 -- .756	96	9	100	6	99	9	99	9
8	.260/.322/.400 -- .721	.242/.308/.375 -- .683	93	12	96	10	94	11	90	12
9	.252/.304/.376 -- .681	.261/.310/.439 -- .749	104	6	102	6	117	3	119	3
ALL	.276/.341/.446 -- .787	.278/.338/.446 -- .784	101	8	99	9	100	7	99	8

Posted by Lucas at 06:12 PM

November 14, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #8 and #9 Hitters

Good #8 and #9 hitters rarely exist for any length of time. Good hitters move to a higher spot in the order, bad ones stay there because the team has no worthy replacement. Catchers, rookies, subs and occasionally pitchers dominate the last two spots in the order. The average AL #8 hitter batted .259/.320/.392; #9s batted .250/.303/.369.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #8 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
R Barajas	23%	.529	47	.243	76	.286	72	15	3	15	8	21	0
I Kinsler	20%	.789	119	.358	111	.431	108	20	2	15	13	11	-3
G Laird	17%	.786	116	.330	103	.455	114	19	3	6	6	27	-2
B Wilkerson	13%	.520	46	.256	80	.264	66	4	1	9	9	27	0
M DeRosa	8%	1.159	219	.472	147	.688	172	11	1	10	4	9	1
J Botts	8%	.727	102	.327	102	.400	100	7	1	5	7	15	0
The Rest	12%	.466	31	.245	76	.221	55	6	0	8	6	15	0
TEAM	-	.682	90	.308	96	.375	94	82	11	68	53	125	-4
AL Average*	-	.721	-	.322	-	.400	-	74	13	71	48	111	0
Team Rank in AL	-	-	12	-	10	-	11	2	7	10	4	10	11

Texas #9 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
R Barajas	27%	.827	141	.333	109	.494	131	28	6	21	7	23	0
N Cruz	18%	.732	113	.296	97	.436	116	13	5	19	6	22	1
G Laird	13%	.859	149	.325	107	.534	142	15	3	9	4	13	1
I Kinsler	11%	.999	191	.408	134	.590	157	11	4	10	7	9	0
J Hairston	8%	.619	84	.308	101	.311	83	9	0	5	6	11	-1
D Jimenez	6%	.526	54	.235	77	.290	77	2	1	6	3	4	0
Pitchers	2%	.067	-78	.067	22	.000	0	0	0	0	0	7	0
The Rest	15%	.616	81	.267	88	.349	93	11	1	9	2	25	-2
TEAM	-	.750	119	.310	102	.439	117	89	20	79	35	114	-1
AL Average*	-	.681	-	.304	-	.376	-	70	11	62	39	112	1
Team Rank in AL	-	-	3	-	6	-	3	1	2	2	10	9	9

Largely because of Rod Barajas, Texas had lousy #8 hitting and fantastic #9 hitting. Barajas batted .188/.243/.286 in eighth and .295/.333/.494 in ninth. Imagine what he’d accomplish batting tenth, or twelfth. Ian Kinsler and Gerald Laird hit very well from both spots. Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz held their ground strictly in terms of where they batted (and ignoring their fielding positions). Ranger pitchers proved the mathematical possibility of a sub-zero OPS+.

American League #8 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Toronto	.837	132	.382	119	.455	113	78	11	64
Detroit	.809	127	.332	104	.476	124	81	25	84
Baltimore	.793	124	.374	117	.419	107	79	11	88
LA Angels	.765	117	.327	102	.439	114	86	18	77
Chicago Sox	.739	103	.301	93	.438	109	71	21	81
Oakland	.710	102	.330	104	.379	98	69	11	79
Boston	.704	98	.321	100	.383	98	76	13	76
Minnesota	.685	97	.325	103	.360	93	74	8	51
NY Yankees	.691	94	.305	96	.386	98	82	16	70
Seattle	.671	93	.309	97	.362	95	66	9	53
Cleveland	.670	91	.297	94	.374	98	75	12	76
Texas	.682	90	.308	96	.375	94	82	11	68
Kansas City	.616	71	.289	88	.327	82	51	10	79
Tampa Bay	.593	68	.283	88	.311	79	61	11	47

Best #8 Hitting: Toronto. Aaron Hill started an unusual 93 games in the #8 spot and batted .314/.383/.422. Eric Hinske, Jason Phillips, Alex Rios, Gregg Zaun, and household names like John Hattig and Adam Lind hit extraordinarily well in cameos.

Worst: Tampa Bay, which also had the worst #7 batters and next-to-worst #9 batters. Josh Paul was serviceable, the rest putrid (Tomas Perez, B.J. Upton, Damon Hollins and others).

American League #9 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Detroit	.772	130	.317	105	.456	126	84	19	75
Cleveland	.764	130	.326	109	.438	122	73	16	86
Texas	.750	119	.310	102	.439	117	89	20	79
Minnesota	.685	109	.330	111	.355	98	64	3	51
LA Angels	.688	108	.319	106	.369	102	61	7	68
Boston	.688	105	.312	103	.377	102	73	10	68
Seattle	.665	102	.288	96	.377	106	70	9	53
Chicago Sox	.683	99	.292	96	.391	104	72	21	63
Oakland	.648	95	.303	101	.345	95	60	10	54
Kansas City	.655	93	.309	100	.346	93	70	6	56
Baltimore	.646	93	.307	101	.339	92	63	8	60
NY Yankees	.642	93	.305	101	.337	91	75	8	57
Tampa Bay	.579	73	.267	88	.313	85	63	8	45
Toronto	.538	59	.255	84	.283	74	61	6	59

Best #9 Hitting: Detroit and Cleveland. Brandon Inge spent half the season batting ninth and produced a line of .278/.329/.509. Aaron Boone (.297/.348/.492) and Casey Blake (.356/.433/.533) seemed comfortable waiting for eight teammates to hit first.

Worst: Toronto. The NL’s Padres, Marlins and Reds had better #9 hitters than Toronto. John McDonald, Russ Adams, and Aaron Hill (in sharp contrast to his job at #8) were the primary culprits.

Posted by Lucas at 01:42 AM

November 12, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #7 Hitters

AL #7 hitters dropped off very little from #6s this season: .001 in on-base percentage and .008 in slugging. The difference is that teams rarely have “regular” #7 hitters. Only one team had a player with more than a half-season’s worth of starts batting seventh (Seattle with Kenji Johjima). Teams have enough trouble finding six quality hitters; Number 7 is usually the best of what’s left.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #7 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
B Wilkerson	25%	.817	115	.356	110	.460	105	29	6	13	18	49	-4
I Kinsler	19%	.875	129	.357	110	.518	118	18	5	19	9	19	6
M Stairs	13%	.637	67	.268	83	.368	84	6	3	11	5	20	0
K Mench	9%	.939	146	.393	121	.545	125	8	2	9	5	5	0
G Laird	8%	.637	69	.291	90	.346	79	8	0	5	1	12	2
M DeRosa	8%	.771	102	.327	101	.444	1

The Ranger Rundown

Texas Rangers baseball and more, by Scott Lucas

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Can Michael Young reach 3,000 base hits?

December 04, 2009

Minitrue

November 26, 2009

On Millwood

November 08, 2009

Texas Pitchers' Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

October 30, 2009

Homegrown Starting Pitchers, Updated

September 26, 2009

Texas's 40-Man Roster: Surprisingly Uncrunchy!

September 19, 2009

The Downside of the Teixeira Trade

July 03, 2009

Who You Callin’ Lucky?

May 07, 2009

Idle Thought

April 24, 2009

A Quick PitchF/X Look at Derek Holland's MLB Debut

April 17, 2009

How Young Is Elvis Andrus?

April 06, 2009

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Predictions

February 18, 2009

Did Bradley Protect Hamilton?

February 09, 2009

PECOTA Update

February 02, 2009

Ron Washington Perplexes Me Sometimes

January 31, 2009

PECOTA Does Not Love Texas

January 23, 2009

Hurley Dissected At Beyond The Box Score

January 11, 2009

First Take On Young Situation

October 30, 2008

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October 22, 2008

Idle Thought

October 02, 2008

Ranger Pitcher Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

September 30, 2008

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July 31, 2008

Eric Hurley's Fastball

July 26, 2008

Can Nelson Cruz Play Major League Baseball?

July 18, 2008

PitchFX On Eric Hurley: Pitch Location And Results

July 14, 2008

Some Quick Research on C.J. Wilson

June 29, 2008

Clarifications

June 13, 2008

Analyzing Eric Hurley

June 05, 2008

Draft Day Guess

April 25, 2008

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April 21, 2008

The Rundown Museum Proudly Displays...

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More Strike Calls

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March 27, 2008

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March 09, 2008

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February 27, 2008

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February 01, 2008

Rangers Salary Commitments

November 01, 2007

Ranger Pitcher Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

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