The Ranger Rundown

September 05, 2014

Wash

Songs: Ohia, "Farewell Transmission," from The Magnolia Electric Co., 2003

Posted by Lucas at 11:54 PM

April 23, 2014

Who Are These Guys?

Of the 17 players used by Texas against the A's on Tuesday, ten weren't on the 40-man roster at the end of the 2013 season, and five of those ten were added within the last 30 days. For reference, the 2013 season ended 204 days ago.

Player	Days on 40
Poreda	4
Kouzmanoff	13
Martinez	17
Wilson	23
Murphy	27
Figueroa	83
Choice	140
Fielder	153
Sardinas	153
Tolleson	153
Rios	256
Chirinos	379
Soria	504
Martin	1084
Moreland	1363
Andrus	1843
Ogando	2710

Player	Days since first 25-man appearance
Sardinas	3
Poreda	4
Kouzmanoff	13
Martinez	17
Choice	22
Fielder	22
Murphy	22
Wilson	22
Tolleson	22
Figueroa	22
Rios	256
Soria	289
Chirinos	349
Martin	963
Moreland	1363
Ogando	1410
Andrus	1842

Posted by Lucas at 12:49 AM

October 11, 2013

On Darvish's Perceived Weaknesses

I've performed a quick analysis of perceived weaknesses in Darvish's game. I was prompted by Richard Durrett's column today: Can Yu Darvish Be Like Verlander and Wainwright? I wouldn't call this a direct response to Durrett, even though I'll be using his pitchers for comparison. I've been thinking about this for a while.

Leads Lost

Perhaps the largest complaint lodged against Darvish is his inability to maintain leads. Darvish did indeed lose his share, the implication (or explicit accusation) by some being that he lacks mental toughness. (Durrett doesn't go there, I should note.) Still, has anyone bemoaning Darvish's loss of leads compared him to other pitchers? Maybe, but I've yet to see it. I did the research myself and tweeted in mid-September:

Adam Wainwright has allowed more 1st-inning runs (19) than Yu Darvish (17). On more occasions (9 vs 8). And given up more leads (11 vs 10).

— Scott Lucas (@scottrlucas) September 15, 2013

Here's the end-of-season results for Darvish, Wainwright and Verlander:

Pitcher	Games With Leads Lost	Total Leads Lots	Avg Runs Ahead When Lead Lost	Team Record
Adam Wainwright	11	13	1.3	4-7
Yu Darvish	12	12	1.4	6-6
Justin Verlander	13	15	1.3	4-9

Darvish did lose a few more leads in innings 6-7 than the others, but on the whole, there's no evidence that he was worse at maintaining a lead than Wainwight or Verlander. Texas also fared better in those games, although I'd attribute that mostly to luck.

1st Inning Runs Allowed

Pitcher	Occasions	Total Runs	RA9
Justin Verlander	9	12	3.18
Yu Darvish	12	21	5.91
Adam Wainwright	11	23	6.09

Darvish was pretty sloppy in the 1st inning. Wainwright was worse. While putting your team in a hole is problematic, from an analytical standpoint there's a danger in getting too granular. You might end up arguing about a pitcher's bad ERA in the 6th inning, which is silly.

Efficiency

Pitcher	Outs per 100 Pitches	Pitches / GS
Adam Wainwright	20.5	104
Yu Darvish	18.2	108
Justin Verlander	17.7	109

Darvish's outs per 100 pitches equal to the league average. He could be better. Verlander was worse.

Run Support

Pitcher	Run Support	Relative to Park-Adj. League Avg.
Justin Verlander	4.74	+3%
Adam Wainwright	4.68	+19%
Yu Darvish	4.30	-3%

Adjusted for parks, Justin Verlander received about .26 runs per game more than Darvish, a little over eight runs over the course of the season. In the aggregate, that's worth almost one additional win. The difference between Darvish and Wainwright is a whopping .95 runs per game (Wainwright pitches in the NL in a friendlier park.) Imagine Texas record with an addition 30 runs of support with Darvish on the mound.

1-0 Losses

Pitcher	1-0 Losses
Adam Wainwright	0
Justin Verlander	1
Yu Darvish	4

No comment.

Frequency and Winning in Best Performances

Pitcher	Allowed 0 or 1 Runs	Team Record
Wainwright	13	13-0
Darvish	13	8-5
Verlander	12	8-4

Darvish was the equal of Wainwright and Verlander at allowing one or fewer runs. Courtesy of Texas's difficulties at the plate, he endured the most losses.

Total Professional Innings

Durrett notes Darvish's lack of experience in general and in big games ("It's not as if Wainwright and Verlander just showed up in the big leagues and did that [i.e., pitched like Verlander last night] right away".) I'm a little mystified by that, as Darvish really didn't just "show up" last year. Darvish has made no fewer than ten postseason starts in Japan (as best as I can tell) plus last year's MLB Wild Card. He has 355 more regular seasons innings than Wainwright and barely 100 fewer than Verlander. Sure, Japanese baseball doesn't compare to the US, but I certainly wouldn't leave it out of the discussion.

Pitcher	Regular Season	Playoffs
Verlander	1,772	85
Darvish	1,669	72 (est.)
Wainwright	1,314	49

I don't have stats for Darvish's first five playoff starts in Japan. I assumed 6 IP per game, which, given his usage, is probably low.

Advanced Stats

Pitcher	WPA	WPA+	WPA-	Clutch	fWAR	rWAR
Yu Darvish	2.3	14.93	-12.62	-0.28	5.2	5.8
Adam Wainwright	2.2	15.99	-13.84	-0.06	6.2	6.2
Justin Verlander	0.8	15.88	-15.09	-0.19	5.2	4.6

I'm not going to belabor the advanced stats, other than to say that Darvish is very obviously in the same class as Verlander and Wainwright.

Conclusion

Darvish has room to improve. We all do. But I'd argue that Darvish is already the equal of Verlander and Wainwright. What's separating Darvish from Verlander and Wainwright this October is opportunity.

Posted by Lucas at 06:23 PM

January 09, 2013

One Way of Looking at Michael Young's Future

This is a companion piece to my upcoming annual (and probably final) update on Michael Young's quest for 3,000 hits.

Michael Young was an astonishing 2.4 wins below replacement per the methodology of Baseball Reference (only -1.4 per Fangraphs). Here's every player I could find since WWII aged between 33-35, playing in at least 100 games and posting a WAR of -1.9 or below (that is, no more than 0.5 better than Young). They're ranked by career WAR entering the fateful season.

Player	Age	WAR	Slash Stats, OPS+	Career WAR entering season	Following Season's PA	Following Season's WAR	Total PA After That Season	Total WAR After That Season	Seasons Played After That Season
Ted Simmons	34	(2.8)	.221/.269/.300, 61	49.6	592	0.8	1059	-0.1	4
Michael Young	35	(2.4)	.277/.312/.370, 78	24.5	?	?	?	?	?
Carlos Lee	34	(2.4)	.246/.291/.417, 91	23.6	653	3.7	1268	3.3	2
George Bell	33	(2.7)	.217/.243/.363, 63	19.7	0	0	0	0	0
Jermaine Dye	33	(1.9)	.254/.317/.486, 105	16.2	645	2.4	1219	2.2	2
Jeffrey Leonard	34	(2.0)	.251/.305/.356, 85	7.2	0	0	0	0	0
Deron Johnson	34	(2.4)	.239/.300/.388, 92	7.0	608	-0.5	663	-1	2
Sean Berry	33	(2.2)	.228/.281/.301, 49	7.0	54	-0.8	54	-0.8	1
Pedro Feliz	35	(2.5)	.218/.240/.293, 45	6.3	0	0	0	0	0
Tony Womack	35	(2.4)	.249/.276/.280, 50	2.7	70	0.2	70	0.2	1
Mike Kingery	35	(2.1)	.246/.304/.337, 67	1.8	0	0	0	0	0
Tony Womack	33	(1.9)	.235/.250/.314, 46	1.6	606	3	1037	0.8	3
Greg Dobbs	33	(2.1)	.285/.313/.386, 89	(1.4)	?	?	?	?	?

The three obvious takeaways:

1) They're rare. Young's 2012 was highly unusual, if not unique. Finding players with negative value is easy, but most were exceptionally bad over a shorter period of time and relieved of their duties in-season. Far less common is a slow, steady, season-long stream of sub-replacement production.

2) Many of these guys weren't outstanding to begin with, or at least not as good as they might have seemed. Young has enjoyed a better career than everyone but Simmons, the giant outlier.

3) Their subsequent careers were often non-existent, usually short, and very rarely productive. In many cases, the player's contractual situation dictated subsequent use, at least to an extent. Let's discuss:

Entering 1984, Simmons re-signed with the Brewers as a free agent for three years at $1 million per plus a team option for the same figure. He promptly produced his worst big-league season. Given what he was owed (significant for the time) and typically a very strong hitter, he was obviously going to receive ample opportunity to bounce back. So he did, if not completely: .273/.342/.402, 12 homers, very nice for a catcher. Nice enough that Milwaukee exercised its option, but the Brewers would soon trade him to Atlanta, where he lasted three seasons as a part-timer with marginal returns.

Lee produced all of 7.2 WAR for the $100 million Houston paid him during 2007-2012. As I recall, the Rangers, who'd traded for the impending free agent the previous summer, weren't especially keen on an extension, instead preferring the draft compensation. Certainly, they weren't going to match Houston's offer, widely viewed as largesse for someone of his, ah, particular athleticism and defensive prowess. Lee produced the season in question during the fourth year of his contract, and Houston was committed to two more years and a whopping $37.5 million. He recovered reasonably well in 2011 before settling into garden-variety badness last year as an Astro and Marlin. He is currently seeking an employer.

Bell, a full-time DH during his dismal 1993, became a free agent and never played again. Bell hit .258/.294/.363 after turning 30.

RF Jermaine Dye's terrible WAR was entirely related to defense. The advanced metrics never enjoyed him in the field but were especially annoyed in 2007 (-3.1 dWAR). Dye had two years and $22 million remaining and earned a chunk of it, clubbing 61 homers along with a .340 OBP in 2008-2009. He certainly could have played for at least one more year, probably more, if not for salary demands that scared off his suitors.

Jeffrey Leonard posted a .296 OBP in over 3,000 plate appearances after turning 29 but maintained a career with enough power and speed to seem impressive. He'd produced seasons of -1.2 WAR in 1985 (Age 29) and 1988 (32) before bottoming out in 1990. The free agent couldn't secure a Major League contract thereafter, settling for Kansas City's AAA squad before retiring.

Deron Johnson was a free agent after his rough 1974, not because his contract expired, but because the Red Sox released him. At the time, baseball's reserve clause still held sway. Johnson signed with the White Sox and essentially repeated his high-power, low-OBP output. Traded back to Boston, he lasted a handful of games into 1976 before his final release.

Berry signed an odd two-year deal prior to 1999 that guaranteed a flat $1 million that year and $2.35 million the next. The latter money was quite princely for a part-timer turning 34, but Berry had hit well during most of the prior six seasons. Two weeks into the next season, Berry stopped hitting, forever. Grudgingly retained as a pinch-hitter in 2001, Berry tallied only 54 plate appearances in 62 games before Milwaukee finally swallowed his contract. The remainder of his professional career consisted of one game for the Red Sox and a few for three different AAA teams.

Feliz was reasonably valuable at his peak of his defensive skills and power, compensating for his truly dreadful plate discipline. That wasn't the case by 2010, by which time Houston inexplicably threw $5 million at a player coming off a fifth consecutive season with an OPS+ of 85 or worse. The Astros traded him for a middle reliever that August. Without a contract entering 2011, he spent most of the last two seasons in indy ball. As of last August, he remained hopeful of another shot at MLB.

Womack lasted 13 seasons, earned over $20 million and posted a career WAR of 0.5. Strange that he never played for the Royals. Womack earned $6 million and was traded twice during his Age 33 debacle, after which he humbly signed with the Cards for a paltry $300,000. A career year at the plate (.307/.349/.385) spawned a two-year, $4 million deal with the Yankees, whereupon he immediately reverted to lesser form.

CF Mike Kingery gets a gold star for resurrecting his career at Age 33 after spending most of the previous five years as a bench player or in AAA. Only once did he qualify for the batting title, during strike-shortened 1994. Kingery parlayed two good seasons in Colorado into a two-year, $1.5 million deal with Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, his revival stalled immediately and he lost his starting role within two months. The Pirates released Kingery the next spring. Eating his $750,000 appears trivial, but he was their third-highest paid player at the time, under OF Al Martin ($2.4mm) and SS Kevin Elster ($1.65mm), whose signing forced Kingery from the roster. Oh, the Pirates.

Dobbs is a pinch-hitter pressed into more active duty by Miami's roster shuffling. Prior to 2012, the Marlins signed him to a two-year, $3 million deal for no good reason, whereupon he produced a season worthy of this list.

Incidentally, the only 36-year-old fitting my criteria was Kevin Bass, a true utility player who hadn't qualified for the batting title since the age of 29. His -1.9 WAR 1995 was his last.

I don't think there's a firm conclusion to draw from this exercise. I certainly wouldn't make a distinct prediction of his 2013 WAR based on this info. Young's career has been unusual; good comps are hard to find. Still, I found it interesting. If anything, the conclusion is that getting old sucks, and no one is spared.

Posted by Lucas at 01:27 AM

March 11, 2011

?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Chuck Greenberg to resign as Rangers' CEO.

Unbelievable. I don't curse on the blog, so I've got nothing else to say.

Posted by Lucas at 12:50 AM

February 27, 2011

The Annual Bewilderment

Per the DMN's Evan Grant:

Come the regular season, Washington intends for Beltre to hit fourth with Cruz fifth. The reason: Washington simply doesn't believe Cruz, entering what should be his third full season in the majors, is ready for the job.

"Wherever Beltre hits, whether it's fourth or fifth, I think he's still going to get the same pitches, a lot of offspeed stuff away and then fastballs in," Washington said. "He's a veteran and he can handle that. I just don't think [Cruz] is ready for it. One more year, I think he might be." [emphasis added]

Washington doesn't explain in detail, but I believe he's implying (in part) that Cruz isn't ready to handle the increased proportion of breaking pitches that cleanup hitters allegedly face. Recall this statement from 2008:

"The No. 4 guys gets off-speed stuff," Washington said on Monday. "Look back and Milton [Bradley] handled more off-speed stuff than fastballs. Hamilton handled more fastballs than breaking balls because they didn't want to put Hamilton on base and let Milton hurt them."

Ah... we've been down this road before. As I wrote back in '08, Bradley actually saw more fastballs than all but one Ranger, while Hamilton saw the second lowest percentage of fastballs on the team. Which is to say, Washington was completely, utterly backwards.

As for the latest assertion, Cruz already sees more offspeed pitches than most batters. In 2010, Cruz received more offspeed pitches than the league median, more than Adrian Beltre, and many more than last year's cleanup hitter Vlad Guerrero. Pitchers just don't like bringing the heat to him:

Player	Offspeed %	Rank
Cruz	45.4%	19th
Beltre	43.3%	34th
AL Median	41.6%	--
Guerrero	40.2%	62nd

Based on 97 AL batters with 400+ plate appearances

Does Cruz struggle against breaking pitches? He certainly didn't in 2010 (data compiled from Fangraphs):

Player	Batting Runs per 100 Offspeed Pitches	Rank	Batting Runs per 100 Non-Knuckled Offspeed Pitches	Rank	Batting Runs per 100 Fastballs	Rank
Cruz	1.24	6th	0.74	16th	1.85	7th
Beltre	0.97	13th	0.97	11th	1.05	21st
AL Median	(0.12)	--	(0.13)	--	0.27	--

I created a "non-knuckleball breaking pitch" category because: 1) batters so rarely face them, and 2) Cruz destroyed Tim Wakefield (5-5, 2 doubles, homer, walk) such that a large percentage of his breaking-ball value came against Wakefield alone. Beltre exceeds Cruz in this category, but not by much. In sum, Cruz hits well regardless of what's coming at him.

Batting order doesn't matter much, except at the extremes of optimization and silliness, so sitting Cruz behind Beltre means very little in terms of runs scored. Still, I wish Washington would stick to an emotion-based explanation that people can abide ("I'm more comfortable with a veteran batting cleanup. The end.") and omit the technical reasoning that contradicts the facts.

Posted by Lucas at 01:22 PM

February 06, 2011

Utilitarianism

So Michael Young’s relationship with Texas appears to be irreparably sundered. This isn’t surprising. Despite public statements to the contrary from management, the acquisitions of Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli clearly reduced him to a supporting role, albeit strong support. He might qualify for the batting title (502 plate appearances nowadays), but his standard 700 PAs seems too lofty a goal. Moreover, his ostensible role as DH plus backup at all four infield positions has always sounded a bit dubious, if interesting. There’s no antecedent for it, not unless you get really creative with the criteria. Some findings via the wonderful Play Index at Baseball-Reference.com:

• No Major League player has ever qualified for the batting title while playing at least five games at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and DH. Not at age 34, not ever.
  
  
• Among players in the Age 34-36 bracket (concurrent with the remaining three years on Young’s contract), a handful have qualified for the batting title while playing at least five games at four of the five positions:

  5+ games at 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS (but not DH): Tony Graffanino in 2006 (2.1 bWAR) and Mark Loretta in 2007 (0.3).
  
  5+ games at 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH (no SS): Bobby Grich in 1985 (2.9 bWAR)
  
  5+ games at 1B, 2B, SS, and DH (no 3B): none.
  
  5+ games at 1B, 3B, SS, and DH (no 2B): none.
  
  5+ games at 2B, 3B, SS, and DH (no 1B): Jim Morrison in 1987 (1.0 bWAR)

Lowering the standard from five games to just one game at each position creates a five-position qualifying group of just Graffanino, Loretta, and Morrison.

Players who are good enough to play positions tend to play positions. Players who aren’t tend to DH or support less arduous positions like 1B and the corner OF slots. Weak defenders are poor candidates for “super utility” players, particularly if some of the utility is to be realized in the middle infield. If the opposite were true, Esteban German would have 8-10 years of MLB service time. Young is better than German, of course; he has power and still catches what he reaches. Much as I like the idea of breaking new ground in baseball, a notoriously conservative sport, it’s an awkward fit.

Young’s departure would put more pressure on Mitch Moreland to fulfill his potential (as an adequate, not great, 1B) and once again leaves the Rangers limited against left-handed pitching. Should he stay, Young’s best bet for achieving 650-700 plate appearances would be as a replacement for a disappointing performance from Moreland or an injured Kinsler or Beltre. I can’t imagine Texas entrusting shortstop to Young in the long term if Andrus were injured.

The New Pornographers, "Use It," Twin Cinema, 2005

Posted by Lucas at 05:07 PM

January 05, 2011

What becomes of Third Basemen at Michael Young's Age?

As of today, Adrian Beltre has replaced Michael Young as Texas's third baseman. Young was a shortstop in March 2007 when he signed a five-year extension covering the 2009-2013 seasons. The winter before his extension kicked in, Texas shunted him to third in favor of 20-year-old, Double-A glove wizard Elvis Andrus. Now, two years, later, Young is a player without portfolio. Assuming he stays in Texas, he'll mostly DH and also substitute at multiple positions. While I doubt many people (including the front office) expected him to serve all five years of his extension at shortstop, it's remarkable that he'll serve none of them there, and only two of the five at a specific defensive position. Regardless of the wisdom of management kicking Young to the easy side of the defensive spectrum, it's a huge disappointment relative to contractual expectations.

To answer the title question, I first create a group of Young's peers with the following criteria:

• Hitters with at least 750 total plate appearances during their Age 32-33 seasons (Young's most recent, and only seasons at 3B), and,
• Played at least 50% of those games at third base.

88 players fit the bill, including Young himself and six other active players: Brandon Inge, Pedro Feliz, Chipper Jones, Melvin Mora, Alex Rodriguez, and Scott Rolen.

Rehearsals For Retirement

Of the 81 retired 3Bs, seven never took the field after their Age 33 season, including Travis Fryman and David Bell, the two worst 3Bs of the group by WAR (the Baseball Reference version, not Fangraphs). All of those seven were among the bottom half by WAR, and none was close to Young's combined 6.0 WAR for 2009-2010. Another ten departed after Age 34, most prominently Ron Santo and Joe Sewell.

The average exited MLB at Age 36, which in Young's case would be the same year his current contract expires. Put another, more depressing way: among this group of not-terribly-old third basemen whom I deliberately selected for stability in the field and at the plate, 59% didn't last to Age 37. Only nine (11% of the group) held a bat at Age 40.

Note that I've made no adjustments for playing time in the above discussion. Players with minimal service time during their final season (e.g., Pie Traynor's five games at Age 38) receive as much credit as those who die with their boots on (e.g., George Brett, 145 games at Age 40).

Offensive Stamina

Henceforth, I'm focusing on what Young's peers accomplished during Ages 34-36, coinciding with the three remaining years of Young's contract.

Of my original 88 third basemen, 83 completed their Age 32-33 seasons long enough ago to play through Age 36 (or retire). How many of them achieved 1,506 plate appearances, which equals the minimum need to qualify for the batting title (502) multiplied by three seasons? Only 19. Another 24 reached a total of 1,000 PAs. The other 40 fell short of 1,000. The majority of players fell to part-time or lesser status in the three years after turning 33.

Incidentally, Young is 1,152 hits shy of 3,000. If he wants to reach the summit before turning 40, he'll need 192 in each of his next six seasons. The only player in the group to equal or surpass 192 hits per season at Ages 34-36 was... Pete Rose. Even the younger version of Young stopped surpassing 192 hits after 2007. He'll need to play into his 40s to reach 3,000.

Defensive Stamina

Chucking the seven early retirees and the too-recent examples of Age 32-33 third baseman (Inge, A-Rod, Young himself) leaves 78 players. How many of them stayed put in their Age 34-36 seasons? More specifically, how many averaged at least 50% of their team's games during those three seasons (in total, not in each season)? 35 of 79, or about 44%.

Another 32 spent at least a plurality of their personal playing time at third, but fewer than 50% of his team's total games. So, the players in my data set were far more likely to maintain their current defensive position than their batting acumen or health.

The other 11 players (14%) would spend a plurality or majority of their Age 34-36 games at a different position. Young may end up in this least common group.

Baseball is a young man's game:

Value

Young's combined 2009-2010 WAR of 6.0 ranks comfortably among the top half, if not the top third, of the 88 3B regulars during their Age 32-33 seasons. The group had an average two-year value of 4.5 WAR and a median of 4.2.

During the following three years, at Ages 34-36, this group averaged a total of 3.3 WAR and a median of just 2.4. Again, those are three-year totals. On a per-season basis, the average 3B fell from 2.3 to 1.1, and the median fell from 1.4 to 0.8. These figures do include the aforementioned seven who never played a day past Age 33. Obviously, Young's not finished, so excluding the youngest retirees presents a more accurate picture. Actually, it makes little difference, as the average three-year WAR jumps only by 0.3 to 3.6.

The line is the result of a linear regression, which confirms about what you'd expect from eyeballing the data points (a clear correlation between past and future performance [r^2 = .41, t-value = 7.2] but a high standard error [3.3 WAR] ). The regression also confirms that the 3Bs' per-season value drops by about one-half from Ages 32-33 to Ages 34-36. The regression guesses Young will be worth a total of 4.5 WAR during 2011-2013. That's over $10 million per WAR, more than double the going rate for free agents according to Fangraphs. (Baseball Reference and Fangraphs don't calculate WAR identically, so I'm loathe to make more than a general assertion in this regard. Nevertheless, it's painfully clear that Young will almost certainly be grossly overpaid during the next three seasons.)

Unlike my Cliff Lee research, I found no indication that the elite 3Bs aged more gracefully than average players. Everyone suffers. In any case, Young isn't in the elite group.

Defense and Value, Together

As you'd guess, the players who started at least 50% of their team's games during their Age 34-36 seasons were the most valuable. They provided a total WAR of 5.8 (average) or 5.1 (median) during the three years. On the whole, the other players were far less valuable. Those still playing mostly at 3B but not as frequently provided an average three-year WAR of 1.6. Those playing mostly at other positions had an average three-year WAR of 1.4 and a median of zero. The most notable outliers among ex-3Bs were George Brett (9.2 WAR), who shifted to 1B at Age 34, and Darrell Evans (9.3 WAR), who spent a very narrow majority of his time at first. The other nine ex-3Bs provided a combined three-year WAR of 6.4.

Is (Beltre + Young) > (Young + Guerrero) ?

Though Young is a poor defensive 3B, the switch to primary DH will still negatively impact his value. For example, pretending that Young spent all of 2010at DH decreases his Fangraphs WAR from 2.4 to 1.3. The difference between the defensive contribution of an average 3B and a DH is about two wins, and Young's defense isn't so terrible as to make the switch to DH a wash. (Not yet, anyway.) Regardless of the team-wide impact, Beltre's acquisition harms Young personally unless you believe Young's defensive ability is on the cusp of total collapse. What little chance he has of providing value commensurate to his contract has vanished. He doesn't have a $16 million bat.

Does Beltre make the team better? I think so, at least in the short run. The defensive difference between Young and Beltre is about two wins per season, and Beltre is a solid hitter overall, albeit prone to wild variance from year to year. Some back-of-the-envelope calculations:

Beltre: 4-5 WAR
Young: 1-2 WAR (spending 2/3 of time at DH and 1/3 at various positions)
TOTAL: 5-7 WAR

vs.

Young: 2-3 WAR (as a 3B)
Guerrero: 1-2 WAR (as a DH)
TOTAL: 3-5 WAR

The Beltre configuration adds about two wins in 2011 at a cost of, say, $8-10 million, assuming Guerrero would have signed for $6-8. That's close to the market average of dollars per win. As for 2012 and beyond, well...

Postscript

Adrian Beltre is entering his Year 32 season. In two years, and with three years plus a vesting option remaining on his contract, we can apply this analysis to him.

My gut feel is that Beltre should give Texas three good years. The back end of the deal will be ugly. Not as ugly as Young's is shaping up, but ugly nonetheless.

Fairport Convention, "Who Knows Where The Time Goes?" from Unhalfbricking, 1969

Posted by Lucas at 01:04 PM

December 14, 2010

Cliff Lee and Longevity

So, despite the best efforts of the Rangers and Yankees, Cliff Lee is a Phillie. He'll receive $120 million over five years, which includes $12.5 million of a $27.5 million sixth-year vesting option. That's in the range of $8,000 per pitch if he remains healthy. If you're into whining about player salaries, there's your talking point.

One of these players will not be part of the Texas rotation in 2011.

How many wins above replacement (WAR) do the Phils need from Lee do justify that contract? Extrapolating from historical figures at Fangraphs, I estimate an average dollars-per-win during 2011-2015 of somewhere between $4.86 million(assuming tepid 10% league-wide salary growth in 2011 and 5% in subsequent years) to $5.62 million (a more robust 15% in 2011, 10% thereafter). Also assuming that the contract runs only five years, it necessitates between 21.3 and 24.6 WAR to pay off. (Since the dollars per win changes annually, the timing of Lee's wins affects his overall value, but to avoid undue complication I'm just using the average dollars per win over the five-year period.) Thus, Lee needs to average about 4.3-4.9 WAR per season after managing just under 7.0 during 2008-2010.

What is the likelihood of Lee pitching that well? I first compiled a list of all starting pitchers with at least nine WAR in their Age 29-31 seasons during 1980-2010. There's nothing special about nine; three WAR per season just felt like a good cutoff. The age bracket matches Lee's last three seasons, and the date corresponds roughly to modern usage patterns. (I didn't want to compare Lee to someone who threw 420 innings in 1892.) I then summed each pitcher's WAR for the subsequent five years, which correspond to the length of Lee's contract. Pitchers who performed well in their Age 29-31 seasons but in the midst of that five-year follow-up (e.g., Halladay, Livan Hernandez) were excluded. 51 pitchers made the cut. Per Baseball-Reference.com *, Lee earned 16.6 WAR during his Age 29-31 seasons, which would place him sixth on this list and ahead of such luminaries as Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens.

Pitcher	Ages 29-31	Ages 32-36	Pitcher	Ages 29-31	Ages 32-36	Pitcher	Ages 29-31	Ages 32-36
Greg Maddux	22.4	23.7	Bill Swift	12.3	1.5	Bret Saberhagen	10.1	5.8
Randy Johnson	19.0	30.2	Bartolo Colon	12.2	3.5	Ron Guidry	10.0	15.1
Pedro Martinez	17.7	10.6	Chuck Finley	12.0	18.7	Mike Boddicker	9.9	8.1
David Cone	17.6	23.8	Teddy Higuera	11.8	1.0	Scott Erickson	9.7	(3.1)
Curt Schilling	16.3	27.7	Jack Morris	11.8	10.2	Sid Fernandez	9.7	2.3
Roger Clemens	16.0	30.2	Kenny Rogers	11.6	14.5	Jim Clancy	9.7	(4.8)
Tom Glavine	15.3	19.9	Al Leiter	11.5	18.9	Mike Morgan	9.6	7.7
John Tudor	14.3	13.0	Rick Rhoden	11.5	10.1	Andy Pettitte	9.6	12.1
Orel Hershiser	14.2	12.7	John Denny	11.3	1.3	Ken Hill	9.4	1.0
Mike Mussina	14.1	21.5	Mark Langston	11.1	13.1	Dave Stewart	9.4	9.7
John Smoltz	13.8	9.8	Doug Drabek	11.0	(1.4)	Danny Darwin	9.3	12.0
Bob Welch	13.8	7.8	Rick Sutcliffe	10.7	8.4	Jimmy Key	9.2	17.9
Jason Schmidt	13.7	4.2	Tom Candiotti	10.6	21.2	Jon Lieber	9.2	7.5
C. Leibrandt	13.7	10.0	Andy Ashby	10.4	1.3	Shane Rawley	9.1	0.2
Kevin Brown	13.3	30.0	Charles Nagy	10.3	1.6	Zane Smith	9.0	3.2
Bruce Hurst	13.1	8.3	Joaquin Andujar	10.2	0.1	John Candelaria	9.0	5.4
Frank Viola	12.6	9.8	Rich Gossage	10.2	3.0	Rick Mahler	9.0	7.5

* Important caveat: I'm using Baseball Reference's WAR, not Fangraphs, for the remainder analysis. I hate switching, but BR's Play Index makes data compilation sooooooo much easier. I'm not going to make the mistake of combining BR's WAR with Fangraphs' dollars-per-win; rather, I'm focusing on a more general assessment of pitcher aging.

Based on these comparisons, Lee's probability of continuing to pitch well is better than I expected. The pitchers below 14 WAR in their Age 29-31 seasons are all over the map. You have Kevin Brown, who finally realized his estimable potential in his mid-thirties. You also have swan dives from Doug Drabek and Jim Clancy. But among the elite pitchers, all with at least 14 WAR in their Age 29-31 seasons, the decline in quality is quite mild. Yes, Pedro Martinez collapsed after two seasons, and John Tudor was nothing special, but on the whole the best pitchers continued to dominate. The average pitcher in the below-14 group lost 58% of his annual value during the subsequent five years, while the above-14 group lost only 23%. Lee is part of the above-14 group.

Let's take a closer look at the elite group:

Again, the best pitchers acquit themselves pretty well. Of the 50 combined seasons, only seven are below two WAR, and five of those belong to Martinez and Tudor. Purely based on these comparisons, Lee can be expected to maintain his status among the better (if not best) pitchers in the game, and his contract, while among the lucrative in baseball history, isn't unconscionable. That said, the monetary upside for the Phillies is minimal. Also, this comparison depends on your willingness to include folks like Maddux and Clemens as Lee's peers. I'm just going where the data takes me.

The annual dollars are only part of the equation. The real stickler for Texas was years. Reportedly, the Rangers balked at a guaranteed seventh year that would have landed Lee. They were right. Among the group of ten best pitchers, the average WAR declined to 2.9 in their Age 37 seasons and to 2.5 at Age 38 (only 2.3 and 1.8, respectively, if excluding an otherworldly Randy Johnson, who amassed 17.2 WAR during his Age 37-38 seasons). By their late thirties, some of the best pitchers of the last thirty years were essentially worthless. Guaranteeing over $20 million for a 38-year-old seven years in advance does little more than increase risk.

Elvis Costello, "This Year's Girl," from This Year's Model, 1978.

Posted by Lucas at 06:14 PM

November 03, 2010

A Moment of Navel-Gazing

February 2010: the pic that transformed shelter cat “Barry” into my cat “Ranger.”

Every once in a while, radio stations in some of Texas’s minor-league cities have me on to discuss the local prospects and the Rangers. In one early April interview*, I surprised a host (and myself, really) with my optimism at Texas’s chances to win the division. Not that I believed Texas would wins 95 games, or even 90, but I felt the lack of a single good or bad team in the West left the door open for everyone. Thus, the AL West club that combined a hot streak with a key in-season acquisition would win the division with perhaps as few as 84 games. Forced to choose, I selected the Angels, who always seemed to outperform expectations, but I insisted that Texas had a very good chance to play in October for the first time in eleven years.


Author reaction to ALCS Game 1 8th inning.

* (Some interviews are better than others. In one, I expounded on how Texas evolved into a competitor with improved defense and pitching, and that its offense was merely good, not great. The very next question: “So, Scott, everyone knows the Rangers can mash the ball, but will they ever get any pitching?”)


World Series-bound, #1.

The Rangers, in fact, rode a hot streak (20-5 through most of June, after which they were only 44-43) and made the essential acquisition of Cliff Lee. That trade effected a paradigm change for discerning fans. Much of the national media (and many locals) would continue to describe the Rangers as underdogs and upstarts because of their decades-long inefficacy. More careful observation revealed an organization focusing on a lengthy October run. Amazingly, in early July, the hapless Rangers were constructing a World Series contender.


World Series-bound, #2.

Notwithstanding some tactical miscues, Ron Washington excelled at keeping the players upbeat and relaxed (which, coincidentally, made the team very easy to root for and fun to watch). The late-90s Rangers were notoriously uptight in the postseason, with them and their fans seemingly in thrall to the Yankee Mystique. In contrast, at no point during the last month – not after losing twice at home to the Rays, not after the ALCS Game 1 debacle, and not down 3-1 to the Giants – did I feel the sense of doom that pervaded the 90s. As soon as Texas won that first game in St. Petersburg, the past disappeared. Win or lose, the 2010 Rangers would stand apart.


This banner was not photoshopped.

I’ve got mixed feelings about the Series. Despite all Texas achieved, there’s an opportunity lost. In postseason baseball, the “better” team loses a substantial portion of the time. Though I never felt they were more than very slight underdogs in any series, the Rangers did advance to the World Series with the worst record among AL competitors. Next year, the Rangers could be significantly better during the regular season but lose in the divisional round to an inferior team. They could miss the playoffs altogether. Nothing is guaranteed.


The last pitch of Texas’s one World Series victory.

That said, this was a special year. I’ve been following this team since moved to Arlington in 1972. Though I’m too young to remember, my father says he took me to see the Dallas-Fort Worth Spurs in what was then known as Turnpike Stadium. 2010 was the belated payoff for me and all the fans who’ve been there since the beginning (though just about any fan of more than a few years has undergone his or her fair share of suffering). Texas will never again win a postseason series for the first time, never vanquish the Yankees for the first time, and never win a World Series game for the first time. I was able to watch it all, often in person, always with my wonderful wife, and for that I am very grateful.

Posted by Lucas at 05:53 PM

October 19, 2010

ALCS Odds Update

Result	Probability
TEX sweeps	--	total: 64%
TEX wins 4-1	13%
TEX wins 4-2	26%
TEX wins 4-3	25%
NYY wins 4-3	19%	total: 36%
NYYwins 4-2	18%
NYY wins 4-1	--
NYY sweeps	--

A couple of bookies have the Rangers at -175 and Yankees at +155, very close to my calculations.

Posted by Lucas at 04:28 PM

October 16, 2010

ALCS Probabilities (Partially Belated)

Log5 Predictor)
TEX home win % = .614
NYY road win % = .542
TEX 57% favorite to win at home
NYY home win % = .646
TEX road win % = .500
NYY 65% to win at home

These were the probabilities going into the series.

Result	Probability
TEX sweeps	4%	total: 45%
TEX wins 4-1	8%
TEX wins 4-2	16%
TEX wins 4-3	18%
NYY wins 4-3	14%	total: 55%
NYYwins 4-2	15%
NYY wins 4-1	19%
NYY sweeps	8%

The betting outlets I visited had Texas at 43% and New York at 61% (the cumulative probability exceeds 100% because of the juice), making Texas a better pick, if not a terrific one.

Now that New York has taken Game 1:

Result	Probability
TEX sweeps	0%	total: 27%
TEX wins 4-1	3%
TEX wins 4-2	9%
TEX wins 4-3	16%
NYY wins 4-3	12%	total: 73%
NYYwins 4-2	15%
NYY wins 4-1	18%
NYY sweeps	18%

Had the Rangers won on Friday, they'd be 59% to win the series. The first game makes a huge difference.

Posted by Lucas at 01:22 PM

October 12, 2010

Updated Series Odds

Never tell me the odds.

Posted by Lucas at 12:07 AM

October 08, 2010

Updated Series Odds

Result	Based on H/R Records		Based on BP30 wins
TAM sweeps	0%	total: 12%	0%	total: 12%
TAM wins 3-1	0%		0%
TAM wins 3-2	12%		12%
TEX wins 3-2	8%	total: 88%	8%	total: 88%
TEX wins 3-1	25%		25%
TEX sweeps	55%		55%

Despite the last two days, the Rangers don't have a 130% chance of winning the series. Tampa Bay shrewdly employed its worst starter in Game 2, giving the Rays a leg up on Sunday's potential matchup. Maddon's always thinking ahead.

Posted by Lucas at 09:18 AM

October 07, 2010

Updated Series Odds

Result	Based on H/R Records		Based on BP30 wins
TAM sweeps	0%	total: 36%	0%	total: 33%
TAM wins 3-1	12%		11%
TAM wins 3-2	24%		22%
TEX wins 3-2	15%	total: 64%	15%	total: 67%
TEX wins 3-1	28%		29%
TEX sweeps	21%		23%

Also, for you betting types, the current series odds (Texas -205, Tampa Bay +175) don't indicate an opportunity based on the "actual" odds as defined in the table.

Posted by Lucas at 11:04 AM

October 06, 2010

Number-Oriented Thoughts on Texas versus Tampa Bay

Log5 Predictor

Bill James invented a formula for calculating the probability of victory based on two team’s winning percentages called “log5.” I’ve calculated the probability of each potential outcome two use data sets: 1) Texas and Tampa Bay’s actual won-loss record (both home and away), and 2) Baseball Prospectus’s 3rd-order wins (91.3 for Tampa Bay, 88.4 for Texas, about one-half the difference in their actual wins) plus a 4% advantage to the home team. Obviously, Tampa Bay will be favored since they own the better record and home-field advantage.

Method 1)
TAM home win % = .605
TEX road win % = .481
TAM 62% favorite to win at home

TEX home win % = .630
TAM road win % = .580
TEX 55% to win at home

Method 2)
TAM 60% to win at home, TEX 56% to win at home.

Results

Result	Based on H/R Records		Based on BP30 wins
TAM sweeps	17%	total: 60%	16%	total: 57%
TAM wins 3-1	19%		18%
TAM wins 3-2	24%		23%
TEX wins 3-2	14%	total: 40%	15%	total: 43%
TEX wins 3-1	18%		19%
TEX sweeps	8%		9%

The most likely scenario involves the Rays winning in a full five games. The Rangers are actually more likely to win in four games than five. Ignoring juice, some oddsmakers I’ve visited have the Rays at -135 to win the series, equivalent to 57%. Based on log5, the odds are close to “correct.”

The Deeper In

Offense

After adjusting for parks, Texas and Tampa Bay had pretty evenly matched offenses in 2010. The Rays play take and rake, finishing 13th of 14 teams in batting average and worst in strikeouts but also 1st in walks and in the middle of the pack in isolated power. The Rangers, on the other hand, led the league with a .276 batting average but displayed ordinary patience and power.

But Texas was hampered offensively by injuries to Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton plus the subpar performances of Justin Smoak (not forgiving his rookie status for this exercise), Chris Davis, and others. Tampa Bay had its own problems (Burrell, Blalock), but with a reasonably healthy lineup and adequate bat in the form of Mitch Moreland at 1st, do the Rangers trump the Rays offensively?

I recreated the batting lines of Texas and Tampa Bay based on projected playing time in a five-game series (for example, Jeff Francoeur starting Games 1 and 5 versus lefty David Price and including only his lefty slash stats). You can quibble with my estimates (how dare you) and the names on the bench (which haven’t been finalized as of early Wednesday morning), but one-game adjustments for a small handful of players wouldn’t affect the calculations much.

Pos	Player	BA	OBP	SLG	AVG+	OBP+	SLG+	Games
C	Bengie Molina	.240	.279	.320	83	83	77	2.50
C	Matt Treanor	.211	.287	.308	86	86	74	1.50
1B	Mitch Moreland	.255	.364	.469	109	109	112	3.00
1B	Jorge Cantu	.235	.279	.327	83	83	78	2.00
2B	Ian Kinsler	.286	.382	.412	114	114	99	5.00
3B	Mike Young	.284	.330	.444	99	99	106	5.00
SS	Elvis Andrus	.265	.342	.301	100	102	72	5.00
IF	Andres Blanco	.277	.330	.349	99	99	84	0.25
OF	Josh Hamilton	.359	.411	.633	123	123	152	5.00
OF	Nelson Cruz	.318	.374	.576	112	112	138	5.00
OF	David Murphy	.291	.358	.449	107	107	108	2.00
OF	Jeff Francoeur	.300	.363	.442	108	108	106	2.00
OF	Julio Borbon	.276	.309	.340	92	92	82	1.75
DH	Vlad Guerrero	.300	.345	.496	103	103	119	5.00
-	Team Total	-	-	-	104	105	107	-
Pos	Player	BA	OBP	SLG	AVG+	OBP+	SLG+	Games
C	John Jaso	.263	.372	.378	103	115	95	3.00
C	Kelly Shoppach	.196	.308	.342	77	95	86	1.50
1B	Carlos Pena	.196	.325	.407	77	101	102	5.00
2B/UT	Sean Rodriguez	.292	.375	.442	114	116	111	2.00
3B	Evan Longoria	.294	.372	.507	115	115	127	5.00
SS	Jason Bartlett	.254	.324	.350	99	100	88	5.00
SS	Reid Brignac	.256	.307	.385	100	95	96	0.25
IF	Willy Aybar	.230	.309	.344	90	96	86	0.25
OF	Carl Crawford	.307	.356	.495	120	110	124	5.00
OF	Matthew Joyce	.241	.360	.477	94	111	119	5.00
OF	B.J. Upton	.237	.322	.424	93	100	106	5.00
UT	Ben Zobrist	.238	.346	.353	93	107	88	3.00
DH/4C	Dan Johnson	.198	.343	.414	77	106	104	4.50
DH/OF	Brad Hawpe	.245	.338	.419	89	97	97	0.25
-	Team Total	-	-	-	96	107	106	-

Separating the wheat from the chaff results in much prettier OBP and slugging for both teams, as you’d expect. Texas leapfrogs the Rays in power but remains behind in on-base percentage. Combined with their modest superiority on the basepaths, the Rays own perhaps a very slight advantage on the Rangers offensively.

Pitching

I performed similar calculations for the rotations and bullpen but used Fangraphs’ WAR instead of a less trustworthy (especially for relievers) stat like ERA. I assigned innings to each starting pitcher roughly equivalent to average innings per start during 2010 rounded down to the nearest 1/3 inning and then subtracted another 1/3. Doing so creates a conservative estimate and assumes both managers will employ quick hooks to play the matchup game. I assumed a four-man rotation and assigned innings to the bullpen so that each team’s total was 45 innings (five games). Again, if you see something distasteful, note that small changes in innings and/or the personnel at the back of the bullpen make little difference.

Name	IP	WAR	WAR/IP	Playoff IP	Playoff WAR
Cliff Lee	108	3.3	0.031	14.3	0.44
C.J. Wilson	204	4.4	0.022	6.0	0.13
Colby Lewis	201	4.4	0.022	6.0	0.13
Tommy Hunter	128	0.7	0.005	5.0	0.03
TOTAL	-	-	-	-	0.73
Name	IP	WAR	WAR/IP	Playoff IP	Playoff WAR
David Price	209	4.3	0.021	13.0	0.27
James Shields	203	2.2	0.011	6.0	0.07
Matt Garza	205	1.8	0.009	6.0	0.05
Wade Davis	168	0.8	0.005	5.3	0.03
TOTAL	-	-	-	-	0.41

Here lies the striking difference between the teams. Not a single matchup favors the Rays. David Price bests Cliff Lee in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, but Lee triumphs in a variety of deeper stats (FIP, xFIP, strand rate, etc.). Again, for emphasis: to a man, Texas’s rotation is equal to or better than Tampa Bay’s.

Name	IP	WAR	WAR/IP	Playoff IP	Playoff WAR
Neftali Feliz	69	1.8	0.026	3.0	0.08
Alexi Ogando	41	0.8	0.020	2.0	0.04
Darren O'Day	62	0.9	0.015	2.0	0.03
Darren Oliver	62	1.5	0.024	2.0	0.05
Dustin Nippert	57	(0.3)	(0.005)	2.0	(0.01)
Derek Holland	57	0.8	0.014	1.3	0.02
Michael Kirkman	16	0.3	0.019	1.3	0.02
TOTAL	-	-	-	-	0.23
Name	IP	WAR	WAR/IP	Playoff IP	Playoff WAR
Rafael Soriano	62	1.7	0.027	3.0	0.08
Grant Balfour	55	1.2	0.022	2.3	0.05
Jeff Niemann	174	1.2	0.007	2.3	0.02
Joaquin Benoit	60	1.6	0.027	2.3	0.06
Chad Qualls	59	0.3	0.005	1.7	0.01
Randy Choate	44	0.5	0.011	1.7	0.02
Dan Wheeler	48	0.1	0.002	1.3	0.00
TOTAL	-	-	-	-	0.24

Both teams have strong bullpens with excellent closers and nobody truly awful on the back end. The worst of the lot, Dustin Nippert, carries the burden of saving his mates in the pen if a starter flames out.

Defense

The Rays and Rangers are excellent defensively. Tampa Bay holds a moderate .006 advantage in defensive efficiency, but per Baseball Prospectus, Texas retakes the league (indeed, leads all of baseball) when considering park effects.

Conclusions

Admittedly, this is an ungainly and imperfect analysis. However, I feel Texas’s passably healthy and revamped roster compares favorably with Tampa Bay’s and largely (if not totally) eliminates the six-game difference between them. This is an awfully close matchup. I’d still rank Tampa Bay as the favorite, if only because of home-field advantage, but a Texas victory shouldn’t be considered an upset. Not that I’m putting money on the outcome (having my emotional well-being on the line is plenty, thanks), but I’d take Texas at +125 over the Rays at -145.

And now, time to live on the edge of my seat for a few days. Hopefully, the next few weeks. Go Rangers.

Posted by Lucas at 04:21 AM

September 25, 2010

Yay, Part 2

Posted by Lucas at 07:10 PM

August 17, 2010

The Strange Saga of Joaquin Arias

A vintage, badly weathered Polaroid of Arias circa 2006

On Monday night, Joaquin Arias committed two 8th-inning defensive blunders that heavily subsidized Tampa Bay’s four-run outburst (video here). Manager Ron Washington was uncharacteristically harsh:“"We've got to get our heads outta our butts and play better baseball tomorrow."

I’d only assign Arias partial blame for the over-the-shoulder miscue. Yes, he raced after the pop-up awkwardly, but, as evidenced repeatedly last night, the Tropicana ceiling transforms ordinary fly balls into hazardous, “where’s Waldo” eye-squinters. Also, right fielder Brandon Boggs was making his first MLB appearance in two years and arguably could have called Arias off. However, Arias’s “fielder’s choice” decision befitted rookie league. Per Washington: "He should have took the out [at first] right there," Washington said. "That's Baseball 101."

My quick take assigned some of the blame to a third party:

Am I right? Actually, I’m not certain that I am. Not completely right, anyway. The situation is definitely too nuanced for 140 characters. How did the Rangers and Arias find themselves in this position?

Baseball America ranked Arias fourth among New York’s prospects in early 2004, prior to his trade to Texas. For the next three seasons, he ranked between third and sixth in the Texas system, and in 2005 he earned a spot within the lower half of baseball’s top 100 prospects. Always an excellent defensive shortstop with contact skills and speed, the only question was how much power and (especially) patience he would develop in his ascent to the Majors.

The answer: not much. Arias has been a perversely consistent hitter in his seven healthy minor-league seasons:

Category	Minimum	Maximum
Average	.266	.315
OBP	.295	.344
ISO	.069	.125
XBH/H	16%	23%
BB Rate	3.2%	5.7%
SO Rate	9.2%	13.0%

Aside from the ability to move up the organizational ladder, Arias hasn’t progressed an inch as a hitter in eight seasons. His best skill is avoiding strikeouts, giving him enough hits on contact to appear useful. He hits .280-.300, won’t take a pitch, and can leg out some doubles and triples. Period. Outlying seasons are just the vagaries of BABIP.

Worse, during an intended conversion to a utility role in 2007, he suffered a shoulder injury while practicing in the outfield. Arias effectively missed the entire season and spent most of 2008 at second base. While he returned to shortstop full-time in 2009, his arm has never fully recovered.

Considered a liability on the left side of the infield, athletic but lacking “baseball sense,” Arias entered 2010 minus options and unlikely to avoid waivers or a trade. Indeed, Texas tried very hard to find his replacement:

• The Rangers signed Khalil Greene as their fifth infielder in January, but his anxiety issues prevented him from showing up to Surprise.
  
  
• The Rangers claimed Joe Inglett off waivers from Toronto in December 2009 but lost him in the same fashion to Milwaukee the next month. (Inglett made way for Colby Lewis, an upgrade, to say the least.)
  
  
• Esteban German rejoined the team on a minor-league contract after finishing 2009 in Texas. German’s MLB on-base percentage is .358 -- far above any of his competitors and most starting MLB middle infielders-- and can play anywhere but catcher. Unfortunately, while versatile, he’s a poor defender everywhere. Though I believe management would have liked German to win the fifth infielder battle, they were emphasizing defense, and German’s defense in March was especially deficient. (I saw it with my own eyes.)
  
  
• Also signed over the winter were Hernan Iribarren and Ray Olmedo. Iribarren had never played shortstop professionally, so he represented no improvement over Arias. Texas parlayed Olmedo into catcher Matt Treanor.
  
  
• The Rangers traded for Gregorio Petit on March 24th. Petit is a stalwart defender but a slightly weaker hitter and much slower on the basepaths than Arias.
  
  
• Finally, Texas acquired Andres Blanco from the Cubs for cash. Blanco rivals Petit at the plate but has more MLB experience and, critically, displayed MLB-quality defense in the final week of Spring Training. He won the fifth infielder job almost instantly.

Yet Arias survived and even thrived. Kinsler’s sprained ankle temporarily opened second base, and management preferred Arias’s just-good-enough bat and just-good-enough defense to the unbalanced skill sets of his rivals. He would garner the majority of starts in April, while Blanco filled in less often and could cover the left side of the infield as needed.

Arias started 13 games at second base to Blanco’s nine during Kinsler’s absence, but that’s not to say he was trusted. Five times, he was pulled for a defensive replacement. Conversely, Blanco was replaced only by pinch hitters.

In an amazing coincidence, Arias hit the DL with a back strain the day Kinsler returned. He was seemingly destined for waivers or at least a protracted rehab stint, but events conspired to save him again. Ryan Garko had batted his way off the roster; suddenly, the spot reserved for the backup 1B and right-handed bench bat no longer existed. Also, Texas had only twelve position players when Arias’s mandatory 15 days expired.

Garko’s dismissal and lack of replacement bequeathed the minor roles of backup 1B, interleague pinch-hitter, and sixth infielder to none other than Arias. Between mid-May and late July, a span of 68 games, Arias came to the plate only 32 times. He started five games at first but finished none, always replaced by a pinch-hitter. Arias also started twice at second when Kinsler injured his groin in late July.

In another amazing coincidence, Arias hit the DL with a neck strain the day Texas acquired Cristian Guzman. Again seemingly facing the waiver wire or a rehab assignment that would extend until rosters expand on September 1st, Arias returned quickly when Nelson Cruz was disabled. And, with Guzman also disabled and Michael Young out with his own neck strain, Texas had to use Arias defensively in the late innings of a close, important game. Twice, in the span of a few minutes, Arias’s lack of baseball sense trumped his athleticism to calamitous effect. Now, Arias is a pariah, demeaned by fans, writers, and the very manager who begged for his retention (along with Blanco) despite a roster constricted enough to force his surrender of the DH in a May game at Seattle.

This season, management has ruthlessly jettisoned players not meeting expectations. Texas has replaced its ostensible #1 and #2 starters, its first baseman, its closer, both catchers, and (to an extent) its center fielder. Yet once Arias back-doored his way onto the active roster in April, the Rangers have been curiously faithful to him. He’s been an injury-replacement second baseman (but not trustworthy enough in the field to finish several games), a backup first baseman (but unable to hit through an entire game even once), a pinch hitter, and a sixth infielder with only 11 innings to the west of second base.

Only the first role makes much sense. I wonder if Texas would have been better served by Esteban German once Kinsler returned and Garko departed. Yes, Arias was batting .321 through April, but he was certain to regress to the mediocrity of his narrowly defined historical performance. German could have pinch-hit for Treanor (and now Teagarden), hit lefties well enough be a legitimate substitute for Davis/Smoak/Moreland at first (career .289/.365/.408), pinch-run for anyone, and fielded just about anywhere.

Given that Arias wasn’t trusted or even needed at short or third with Blanco around, Arias’s superiority over German was reduced to one attribute: marginally better defense at second base. Back in May, when Kinsler returned, that attribute lost its significance. Monday’s catastrophe in the one allegedly superior aspect of his game only emphasized the pointlessness of his place on the roster during the last three months.

Posted by Lucas at 11:57 PM

April 15, 2010

Always Be Closing

The Rangers have entered the 8th inning with the lead in six consecutive games.

Their record? 3-3.

Posted by Lucas at 01:28 PM

March 06, 2010

Can Michael Young reach 3,000 base hits?

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan answered the question thusly:

Does Michael Young have a realistic shot at 3,000 career hits?
-- Maggie W., Burleson, Texas

Yes. Young, who turned 33 last October, has 1,662 career hits. Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, comparable as a hitter to Young, had 1,561 hits in eight full seasons after turning 33. Craig Biggio had 1,380 hits in eight seasons after turning 33. But there are also many players who had numbers similar to Young at this point in his career and ultimately fell well short of 3,000 hits. So much depends on Young staying healthy because physical issues have kept him from getting 200 hits in each of the past two seasons.

Two weeks later, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News expanded on Young-for-3,000 possibility with comparisons to Barry Larkin, Craig Biggio, Julio Franco, and, most notably, Paul Molitor.

For my part, I began examining the likelihood of Young reaching 3,000 hits soon after Sullivan’s article, then let it slide because of my real job. Once Grant added his two cents, I hurriedly finished my research for a March 1st post. Nope… work and Cat Search 2010 consumed another week. So, at last…

Here’s the 3,000 Hit Club minus Cap Anson, whose inaugural season predates the National League and ended in 1897:

Player (age)	Career Hits	Debut Age	Hits thru Age 23 Season	Hits thru Age 32 Season	Hits after Age 32 Season	Age of Last Season as Qualifier	Age of Last Season
Michael Young	-	24	0	1662	-	-	-
Pete Rose	4256	22	309	2152	2104	42	45
Ty Cobb	4189	18	959	2713	1476	40	41
Hank Aaron	3771	20	718	2434	1337	41	42
Stan Musial	3630	20	584	2223	1407	41	42
Tris Speaker	3514	19	547	2232	1282	39	40
Honus Wagner	3420	23	81	1751	1669	42	43
Carl Yastrzemski	3419	21	529	1952	1467	42	43
Paul Molitor	3319	21	467	1751	1568	41	41
Eddie Collins	3315	19	487	1981	1334	38	43
Willie Mays	3283	20	352	2033	1250	40	42
Eddie Murray	3255	21	526	2021	1234	40	41
Nap Lajoie	3242	21	451	1909	1333	40	41
Cal Ripken	3184	20	569	2087	1097	40	40
George Brett	3154	20	544	1967	1187	40	40
Paul Waner	3152	23	180	2036	1116	36	42
Robin Yount	3142	18	871	2407	735	37	37
Tony Gwynn	3141	22	149	1864	1277	38	41
Dave Winfield	3110	21	307	1761	1349	41	43
Craig Biggio	3060	22	140	1680	1380	41	41
Rickey Henderson	3055	20	553	1888	1167	39	44
Rod Carew	3053	21	428	2085	968	39	39
Lou Brock	3023	22	115	1808	1215	38	40
Rafael Palmeiro	3020	21	257	1792	1228	39	40
Wade Boggs	3010	24	0	1784	1226	38	41
Al Kaline	3007	18	880	2228	779	39	39
Rbto. Clemente	3000	20	554	2238	762	37	37
Average	-	20.7	462	2,030	1,267	39.5	41.1
Median	-	21	487	2,001	1,264	40	41

The breakdown of their careers indicates several serious obstacles to Young’s attempt to join them:

1. Recall that Young did not join Texas as a fully assembled 200-hit machine. Drafted as a 20-year-old out of UC Santa Barbara, he needed nearly a full season at each level of the minors above rookie-ball. Aside from a tiny sip of coffee in 2000, Young’s Major League career didn’t commence until 2001, his Age 24 season. During 2001-2002, his Age 24 and 25 seasons, he batted a meager .257/.304/.390. He spent April 2002 time-sharing second base with Frank Catalanotto, after which Little Cat’s shift to four-corner super-sub initiated Young’s seven-year quasi-Iron Man streak.

The late and tepid start is obviously problematic. Wade Boggs is the only member of the 3,000-hit club to collect his first hit during his Age 24 season. The average age was 20.7, the median 21. The non-Boggs contingent accumulated an average of 462 hits before their Age 24 seasons. Others with relatively modest starts were Wagner (81), Lou Brock (115), Tony Gwynn (149), and Paul Waner (180).

2. Because of the above, Young’s 1,662 hits through his Age 32 season trail every member of the 3,000-hit club at the same stage in his career. Closest are Craig Biggio (1,680), Paul Molitor (1,751), and Honus Wagner (1,751).

3. On average, members of the 3,000-hit club collected 1,267 hits subsequent to their Age 32 season. Young needs 1,338, a figure that only seven of the 26 members attained. Thus, even among this group of baseball’s most elite hitters, Young must perform better than average.

4. If Young wants to achieve 3,000 hits before turning 40, he’ll need to average 191 for the next seven seasons. In the near future, he has a reasonably good chance to do so. Come mid-decade, he’s bucking ridiculous odds. Only three players have achieved the more economical sum of 160 hits during their Age 37, 38 and 39 seasons: Pete Rose, Tris Speaker, and Sam Rice (who actually didn’t reach 3,000). The combination of bat speed, stamina and good health at that age is extraordinarily rare.

So, given the unfavorable comparisons with those who achieved 3,000 hits, let’s examine Young in terms of the subsequent performance of players with similar careers through Age 32. I compiled a list of all hitters with at least 831 hits (one-half Young’s total) by the age and created a least-squares ranking using hits through each player’s Age 32 season, starting age of career, hits per game, and batting average. I also included (with less emphasis) batting average on balls in play, rate of walks plus HBP, and isolated power, all of which help to eliminate batters with extremely dissimilar hitting profiles. Without them, the list includes strange comparables like Jeff Bagwell.

A handful of the closest comparables (Jack Tobin, Babe Herman) were already done as regulars by the time they turned 32, so I manually deleted them. Everyone on this list qualified for the batting title for at least one more season, almost always more. Finally, I deleted active players. (Okay, the listed Garret Anderson is still active. But not very.) Note that this list isn’t akin to Bill James’s Similarity Scores. I’m not seeking the Young’s best overall matches, just for a specific set of characteristics.

The most similar 25, in order:

Player	Hits thru Age 32 season	Hits / Game	Debut Age	Batting Average	Career Hits	Hits after Age 32 season	Age of Last Season	Age of Last "Good" Season	Age of Last Season as Qualifier
Michael Young	1662	1.23	24	.302	-	-	-	-	-
Julio Franco	1605	1.17	23	.302	2586	981	48	46	38
Willie McGee	1548	1.17	23	.298	2254	706	40	38	34
Bob Meusel	1565	1.21	23	.311	1693	128	33	31	33
Kirby Puckett	1812	1.31	24	.321	2304	492	35	35	35
Bernie Williams	1629	1.18	22	.305	2336	707	37	33	36
Paul Molitor	1751	1.22	21	.300	3319	1568	41	40	41
Mark Grace	1514	1.17	24	.309	2445	931	39	37	37
Lou Brock	1808	1.18	22	.291	3023	1215	40	38	40
Bill Madlock	1557	1.16	22	.317	2008	451	36	36	34
Ken Boyer	1531	1.12	24	.296	2143	612	38	37	35
Dave Parker	1479	1.14	22	.305	2712	1233	40	39	40
Will Clark	1667	1.10	22	.300	2176	509	36	36	36
Jim Bottomley	1727	1.24	22	.325	2313	586	37	32	36
Garret Anderson	1766	1.20	22	.299	2501	735	37	32	37
Edd Roush	1732	1.21	20	.330	2376	644	38	36	36
Zack Wheat	1738	1.14	21	.302	2884	1146	39	39	37
Sam West	1503	1.10	22	.303	1838	335	37	35	33
Stan Hack	1581	1.15	22	.304	2193	612	37	36	35
Wally Moses	1438	1.20	24	.302	2138	700	40	38	34
Buddy Myer	1692	1.16	21	.302	2131	439	37	36	34
Gee Walker	1450	1.21	23	.310	1991	541	37	29	36
HR Baker	1510	1.19	22	.311	1838	328	36	33	33
Craig Biggio	1680	1.09	22	.292	3060	1380	41	35	41
Dick Groat	1636	1.16	21	.293	2138	502	36	33	35
Tony Lazzeri	1675	1.09	22	.297	1840	165	35	35	33
Average	1624	1.17	22.2	.305	2330	706	38.0	35.8	36.0
Median	1629	1.17	22	.302	2254	612	37	36	36

Note: A "Good" season in the table signifies at least 100 plate appearances and a batting average and on-base percentage above the park-adjusted league average.

Both of Sullivan’s comparisons and most of Grant’s appear on my list. Barry Larkin’s 190 fewer hits than Young, higher walk rate and “poor” .306 BABIP (because he struck out so infrequently) create a slightly less valuable comparison in my system. What I take from this set of players:

1. Three of Young’s 25 most similar hitters reached 3,000 hits: Molitor, Bagwell, and Lou Brock. As noted, all began their Year 33 seasons with more hits than Young.

2. Among those most similar to Young, only seven reached 2,500 hits, and five actually departed with less than 2,000. A search on “Bob Meusel,” famous for following Ruth and Gehrig in the Yankee lineups of the 1920s, reveals the epithets “lazy,” “indifferent,” and “unpopular,” three words never appended to Young. Meusel’s last good season came at Age 31, and by 33 he was done. Meusel aside, most of these players reached their mid-thirties in respectable form, but very few remained healthy and effective thereafter.

3. The average batter collected only 706 hits after his Age 32 season. Molitor (1,568) and Biggio (1,380) are dramatic outliers and the only two listed to surpass the 1,338 hits needed by Young.

4. Young will be fulfilling the final year of his five-year, $80 million contract as a 36-year-old. 12 of the 25 hitters most similar to Young failed to accumulate enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in their Age 36 seasons. That is to say, they were hurt, ineffective, or (in a few cases) already retired.

Michael Young has the second-most hits in baseball during the last seven years (trailing Ichiro). Better yet, his 1,416 hits during his Age 26-32 seasons are the sixth-most in MLB history, the others in an illustrious top ten being Heinie Manush, Boggs, Puckett, Rose, Harry Heilmann, Musial, Carew, and Rogers Hornsby. Despite those accomplishments, he’s highly unlikely to reach 3,000. Bill James’s “Favorite Toy” tool grants him an 18% chance. With no disrespect to Young, I would give those odds.

Posted by Lucas at 05:31 PM

December 04, 2009

Minitrue

Yes, please. If Texas can get someone to trade for a pitcher with a "3.67 ERA in a tough park in AL" instead of who he really is, that would be doubleplusgood.

Posted by Lucas at 12:07 PM

November 26, 2009

On Millwood

On July 2nd, just before the season’s midpoint, Kevin Millwood owned a sparkling 2.80 ERA and had already thrown 119 innings. This performance, after an aggregate 4.89 ERA and about 93 innings per half-season in Texas, was cause for celebration and a primary factor in Texas’s early-season division lead. In previous years Millwood had been dogged by minor injuries as well as questions regarding his conditioning. Last winter, Millwood reportedly worked himself into premium shape. (Roughly half of MLB’s employees get puff pieces about their strength and stamina during the news-starved winter, but in this case it appeared to be true.) Might Millwood make the All-Star team? Might he earn some down-ballot Cy Young votes?

And then, the backlash: How much of Millwood’s success was external, the product of a suddenly superior defense and the pejorative “luck?”

• R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs: “The Pleasures Of Strand Rate,” documenting Millwood’s sudden and seemingly dubious knack for leaving runners on base. Followed by…
  


• Rob Neyer of ESPN: “Don’t Be Fooled By Millwood’s ERA,” giving Anderson’s story a bigger stage and noting that Millwood’s .261 BABIP was the lowest of his career. Followed by…
  


• Evan Grant of D Magazine’s now-defunct and sorely missed Inside Corner: “ESPN’s Rob Neyer Says Kevin Millwood Has Been More Lucky Than Good; I Say ‘Wake Up, Rob Neyer’,” a pointed refutation of Neyer and Anderson. Well, sort of. Grant actually concurs with much of what Neyer and Anderson wrote; mostly, he takes umbrage at the derisive term “luck.” (I’m a big fan of Grant’s work, his whole-hearted embrace of “new media,” and his willingness to engage with his audience, but this article isn’t his high point.) Supported by…
  


• Richard Durrett, then at the Dallas Morning News: “I second Evan Grant’s Defense of Kevin Millwood,” wherein Durrett states that Millwood “is in better shape, he has a better defense, but he's also making the crucial [pitches at] the critical times. Just watch the games and you'll see that.” (Okay. “[I] watch the games” is fine for justifying why some youngster with a poor track record might still be an excellent prospect, but not so much for justifying the stratospheric strand rate of a 34-year-old with over 2,000 MLB innings. This argument is of a bygone era and reeks of smugness [if unintentionally]. In 2009, there's someone out there who's watched more of the player in question than you [yes, you, and me, too], who will capably dispute your position, and who can do so on the Interwebs with at least a modest and discerning audience. Today, "watch the games," which really means "you don't watch as many games as me," works at best one-on-one, never against the broad readership. It's a dismissal, not an argument.) Followed by…
  


• Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball: “Kevin Millwood, Rob Neyer, Evan Grant, luck, pitching, and defense,” a lengthy rebuttal of Grant and the best thing anyone’s written about the subject (so go read it). And on the same day…
  


• Yours truly , “Who You Callin’ Lucky?” Like Adam, I waxed meta, arguing “luck” shouldn't have a negative connotation, although, in the context of Millwood, I described luck as “a series of atypical occurrences; for example, stranding 87% of opposing runners for nearly half a season.”
  
  (Luck, after all, works both ways. In an old fantasy column for ESPN, I argued that Brad Fullmer’s poor start in Texas was largely luck-driven and that he’d show improvement soon. Boy, did that not work out. Also, even Millwood’s detractors gave him credit: I wrote that he’d “been a revelation, a pleasure to watch, and arguably the team MVP.” Adam Morris stated that the “point of [his article] isn't to condemn Millwood. He's been a workhorse this year.” It's more fun to watch the players you care about do well, lucky or not.)

As if on cue, Millwood’s health, stamina, and ERA began to decay. A scant two months after the All-Star and Cy Young talk, the discussion devolved to whether Texas should bench Millwood so that his $12 million option in 2010 wouldn’t vest. The Rangers didn’t bench him, and in fact Millwood pitched quite well in his final three starts. That said, his second half resulted in a 5.02 ERA and fewer than six innings per start, depressingly similar to his lackluster 2007-2008.

So, barring a trade, Millwood will pitch 2010 with a "T" on his cap. What to expect? Unfortunately, for predictive purposes, I think we can pretend his best half-season in Texas never existed. I don’t doubt that Millwood’s improved conditioning, determination, etc., played some role in 2009’s first half, at least in terms of working deeper into games. But in truth, he really didn’t pitch much differently than before. In many respects, he pitched worse. He was, dare I say it, very, very lucky.

How lucky? During 2006-2008 and the second half of 2009, Millwood’s hit rate on balls in play has averaged .329 and was never lower than .306. Somehow, during the first half of 2009, it was .254, a whopping 75 points lower than his average:

While Texas’s defense did improve markedly in 2009, the only time Millwood’s BABIP has been lower than the team’s was during the first half of 2009. Millwood’s strand rate during this period is an even more of an outlier:

Displaying Millwood’s strand rate relative to his ERA better indicates how unusual his first half of 2009 was:

Concomitant to Millwood's lofty strand rate was his performance with runners in scoring position and two out. Since hits with runners on second and/or third almost always result in at least one run across the plate, short-term trends in this situation greatly influence ERA. In the previous three years, his rates in that situation were .256, .337, and .255, but during the first half of 2009, Millwood’s opponents batted 5-for-52 in two-out RISPs, a miniscule .096 average. If he’d found some ability to bear down in those situations, he lost it during the second half, as opponents went 12-for-41 (.293), approximately equal to the average of 2006-2008:

Not coincidentally, Millwood's newfound ability to work deeper into games disappeared in 2009's second half:

It’s established that a pitcher’s performance is best evidenced in strikeouts, walks, and homers. Frankly, even in light of the luck and defense requisite to Millwood’s amazing first half of 2009, from visual observation I would have expected improvement in the statistics most under his control. I saw him often and have no interest in retracting my statement that he was a pleasure to watch.

Instead, what’s remarkable about Millwood’s first half of ’09 is that his peripheral stats improved not a bit from his previous and subsequent efforts:

Actually, Millwood’s rates of homers, walks and strikeouts for all of 2009 were the worst among his four years in Arlington. In fact, aside from his 51-inning rookie season, his BB and SO rates were the worst of his 13-year career, and his 3.1% HR rate was exceeded only during his injury-plagued 2001. Astonishingly, Millwood posted his best ERA as a Ranger during what might be his worst season in the Majors. And he turns 35 next month.

Thus, Texas erred in letting his option vest, correct? Not necessarily. As noted by Fangraphs, wins (above replacement, not pitcher wins) come very dearly on the free-agent market, about $4 million per, and Millwood has averaged 2.8 wins per season during the last three years. He stands almost no chance of being a bargain but will more-or-less earn his full salary if he can duplicate the average of his 2007-2009 seasons. On the other hand, if the decline in his peripherals is irreversible, he’s an expensive, barely-above-replacement-level “ace.”

Texas, strangely enough, has some pitching depth and has countenanced trading Millwood. Though I liked the Volquez-for-Hamilton trade, it was problematic in that Volquez’s putative innings for 2008 were replaced by a not-ready-for-prime-time cast that couldn’t even offer replacement-level performance. This time, I don’t think that would happen; Neftali Feliz is ready for his close-up, Matt Harrison is healthy and throwing hard, and perhaps Guillermo Moscoso and even Eric Hurley will have a positive contribution. Still, I suppose one argument against a trade, assuming no pitching comes back, is who remains – is Texas willing to enter 2010 with Scott Feldman as its nominal ace?

Millwood is a known entity, and there’s value in a pitcher who can reach 190-200 innings with a 4.75 ERA. I’m not averse to Millwood pitching for Texas in 2010, even for $12 million, but expecting another sub-4.00 ERA, or even sub-4.50, is foolhardy.

Posted by Lucas at 02:45 AM

November 08, 2009

Texas Pitchers' Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

Once again, I've turned every Texas pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines and percentages of homers, walks and strikeouts for every Ranger pitcher who pitched at least 10 innings. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right.

Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by calculating differences in average, on-base percentage, slugging, homer rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate between each Ranger pitcher and every hitter in baseball with at least 200 appearances. It involves least squares, standard deviations and other ickiness. Two pitchers needed batters with fewer than 200 PAs: Feliz and O'Day. See below.

Pitcher	Opposing AVG / OBP / SLG - OPS	Opposing AVG+ / OBP+ / SLG+ - OPS+	HR% - BB% - SO%	Most Comparable Batters ('09 Stats Only)
N Feliz	.124 / .207 / .210 - .416	45 / 60 / 47 - 7	1.7% - 6.8% - 33.3%	Aaron Cunningham, Jair Jurrjens, Joe Blanton
D O'Day	.188 / .265 / .260 - .526	69 / 77 / 58 - 35	1.4% - 7.9% - 25.0%	David Dellucci, Johan Santana, Matt Downs
F Francisco	.214 / .276 / .364 - .639	78 / 80 / 82 - 62	3.0% - 7.4% - 28.1%	Bill Hall, Josh Fields, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
C Wilson	.234 / .325 / .326 - .651	86 / 95 / 73 - 68	0.9% - 9.9% - 26.0%	Koyie Hill, Chris Coste, Jack Hannahan
D Mathis	.244 / .297 / .363 - .659	89 / 87 / 81 - 68	2.3% - 5.8% - 14.5%	Kaz Matsui, Jose Guillen, Jody Gerut
S Feldman	.250 / .319 / .374 - .693	91 / 93 / 84 - 77	2.3% - 8.2% - 14.3%	Geoff Blum, Aubrey Huff, Jose Guillen
D Nippert	.245 / .324 / .372 - .696	90 / 94 / 83 - 77	2.3% - 9.7% - 18.0%	Elijah Dukes, Ryan Spillborghs, J.J. Hardy
T Hunter	.259 / .313 / .423 - .736	95 / 91 / 95 - 86	2.7% - 7.0% - 13.5%	Daniel Murphy, Vernon Wells, Stephen Drew
J Grilli	.216 / .321 / .412 - .734	79 / 94 / 92 - 86	1.8% - 12.4% - 23.9%	Chris Young, Clete Thomas, Jason Varitek
B McCarthy	.255 / .321 / .418 - .739	93 / 94 / 94 - 88	3.1% - 8.6% - 15.5%	Ben Francisco, Stephen Drew, Willie Aybar
TEAM	.260 / .331 / .416 - .747	95 / 96 / 93 - 89	2.8% - 8.6% - 16.5%	Ben Francisco, Aubrey Huff, Stephen Drew
K Millwood	.257 / .327 / .423 - .750	94 / 95 / 95 - 90	3.1% - 8.4% - 14.5%	Ben Francisco, Stephen Drew, Andy LaRoche
V Padilla	.286 / .360 / .419 - .779	105 / 105 / 94 - 99	2.5% - 8.8% - 12.4%	David DeJesus, Jorge Cantu, Adam Kennedy
J Jennings	.286 / .361 / .453 - .814	105 / 105 / 101 - 106	2.6% - 10.3% - 16.2%	Brian Roberts, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Holliday
E Guardado	.267 / .344 / .479 - .823	98 / 100 / 107 - 107	4.8% - 9.0% - 12.1%	Ian Kinsler, Paul Konerko, Brian McCann
D Holland	.288 / .346 / .510 - .856	105 / 101 / 114 - 115	4.3% - 7.7% - 17.5%	Michael Cuddyer, Casey McGehee, Torii Hunter
M Harrison	.316 / .376 / .500 - .876	116 / 110 / 112 - 122	3.2% - 8.1% - 12.0%	Aramis Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Michael Young
W Madrigal	.333 / .463 / .519 - .981	122 / 135 / 116 - 151	3.0% - 17.9% - 7.5%	Todd Helton, Carlos Beltran, Joe Mauer
K Benson	.340 / .421 / .598 - 1.019	124 / 123 / 134 - 157	5.3% - 10.5% - 9.7%	Joe Mauer, Pablo Sandoval, Miguel Cabrera

Yes, Feliz's opposing OPS+ was 7. Seven! Both Feliz and O'Day so greatly stifled hitters that no batters with 200 appearances are really comparable. For them, I dropped the required plate appearances to 50. Two of Feliz's top three and seven of his top ten comparable opposing batters are pitchers:

1. Aaron Cunningham (OF)
2. Jair Jurrjens (P)
3. Joe Blanton (P)
4. John Lannan (P)
5. Kevin Correia (P)
6. Jed Lowrie (IF)
7. Chad Billingsley (P)
8. Johnny Cueto (P)
9. Diory Hernandez (IF)
10. Ryan Dempster (P)

2008 list.

2007 list.

Posted by Lucas at 09:31 AM

October 30, 2009

Homegrown Starting Pitchers, Updated

A list of starting pitchers developed by AL West teams during the Wild Card era. Criteria for listing: Player originally drafted or signed by the respective team, pitched 162 innings (or one inning per team game in strike years), and not yet eligible for free agency.

Year	Texas	Los Angeles	Oakland	Seattle
2009	Scott Feldman	John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver	Trevor Cahill	Felix Hernandez
2008	-	John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver	-	Felix Hernandez
2007	-	John Lackey	Joe Blanton	Felix Hernandez
2006	-	John Lackey, Ervin Santana	Joe Blanton, Barry Zito	Felix Hernandez, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro
2005	-	John Lackey	Joe Blanton, Barry Zito	Ryan Franklin, Joel Pineiro
2004	-	John Lackey	Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	Ryan Franklin, Joel Pineiro
2003	-	John Lackey, Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn	Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	Ryan Franklin, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro
2002	-	Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn	Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	-
2001	Doug Davis	Ramon Ortiz, Scott Schoeneweis, Jarrod Washburn	Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito	-
2000	-	Scott Schoeneweis	Tim Hudson	-
1999	-	-	-	-
1998	-	-	-	-
1997	Darren Oliver	Jason Dickson	-	-
1996	Darren Oliver, Roger Pavlik	-	-	-
1995	Roger Pavlik	-	-	-
1994	Kevin Brown, Kenny Rogers	-	Todd Van Poppel	Dave Fleming

Posted by Lucas at 09:40 AM

September 26, 2009

Texas's 40-Man Roster: Surprisingly Uncrunchy!

Evan Grant of D Magazine concluded his end-of-season report on Texas’s minor-league system for Baseball America on a worrisome note (subscription-only link):

The Rangers have so much minor league talent they may be facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter. That may have led them to deal catcher Manny Pina (who must be protected this winter) and outfielder Tim Smith to the Royals for righthander Danny Gutierrez.

The Rangers do indeed have plenty of farm talent, but I actually think their winter roster situation will be much less stressful than in previous years. The present roster contains several players who have virtually no future in the organization, and the list of players needing protection to avoid potential capture in the Rule 5 draft is intriguing but not especially compelling.

To elaborate, Texas currently has 44 players on its roster: 40 plus four on the 60-day Disabled List who must be reinstated. They’re categorized as follows:

Pitchers	Position Players		Pitchers	Position Players
Wage Slaves (27)			Under Contract in 2010 (3)
Eyre, Willie	Andrus, Elvis		Millwood, Kevin	Kinsler, Ian
Feliz, Neftali	Arias, Joaquin		-	Young, Michael
Harrison, Matt	Boggs, Brandon		Arbitration-Eligible (7)
Holland, Derek	Borbon, Julio		Feldman, Scott	German, Esteban
Hunter, Tommy	Cruz, Nelson		Francisco, Frank	Hamilton, Josh
Hurley, Eric	Davis, Chris		Grilli, Jason	-
Madrigal, Warner	Gentry, Craig		McCarthy, Brandon	-
Mathis, Doug	Golson, Greg		Wilson, C.J.	-
Mendoza, Luis	Murphy, David		Free Agents (7)
Moscoso, G.	Ramirez, Max		Benoit, Joaquin	Blalock, Hank
Nippert, Dustin	Richardson, Kevin		Guardado, Eddie	Byrd, Marlon
O'Day, Darren	Saltalamacchia, J.		-	Jones, Andruw
Poveda, Omar	Teagarden, Taylor		-	Rodriguez, Ivan
Strop, Pedro	-		-	Vizquel, Omar

Who on this list is likely to lose his spot this offseason?

Among the Free Agents:
Technically, all the free agents are eliminated unless they re-sign before declaring free agency. Their departures decrease the roster to 37. Blalock, Guardado and Jones are assuredly gone. Texas has intimated a desire to keep Pudge* and Vizquel around for another year. Although Texas would like to retain Byrd, someone will pay him more than the Rangers. Benoit may yet have a future with Texas, but not on a Major League deal this winter.

* Tangentially, remember when Texas’s catching depth was the envy of baseball? At the end of 2007, the Rangers had a top five of Saltalamacchia, Teagarden, Ramirez, Cristian Santana and Manny Pina. Now, Texas is considering re-upping a soon-to-be 38-year-old who has batted .270/.297/.402 during the last three years, Salty and Tea might enter 2010 fighting for a backup role, Ramirez exits 2009 not an inch closer to establishing himself, Pina is a Royal, and Santana is a left fielder with a mile-wide hole in his bat.

Among the Arbitration-Eligibles:
Arbitration offers to Feldman, Francisco, Wilson and Hamilton are assured. German and Grilli are much less likely. McCarthy… nah, Texas will keep him; his salary won’t spike too high from this year’s $650,000, and he still has options. Oh, and he might evolve into a useful pitcher. Perhaps.

Among the Wage Slaves:
Kevin Richardson will be designated (again). Arias used his last option in 2009 and has little chance of making the ’10 squad. The Rangers revealed their impression of Golson when they left him in AAA and instead purchased Gentry from AA Frisco. As for Gentry, his hold on a roster spot is tenuous. Luis Mendoza hasn’t earned an opportunity to assuage his dismal 2008. Texas has oodles of flexibility in this regard.

In sum, losing seven free agents, 1-2 arbitration-eligibles, and 2-4 indentured servants leaves 31 to 34 players on the 40-man roster.

What of the upcoming additions to the 40-man roster? The three players who assuredly would have been added this fall – Andrus, Feliz and Strop – are already on the active roster. Texas’s current Rule 5-eligibles include several intriguing names but none that absolutely demands addition. Put another way, who on this list would be selected in the Rule 5 draft and survive a year on a Major League roster? Here’s a partial list of eligible players:

Name	Pos
Alfonzo, Miguel	OF
Ballard, Michael	P
Castillo, Fabio	P
Diaz, Jumbo	P
Flores, Adalberto	P
Garr, Brennan	P
Jones, Beau	P
Kirkman, Michael	P
Osuna, Renny	IF
Paisano, David	OF
Phillips, Zach	P
Quintero, Jorge	P
Santana, Cristian	OF
Swanson, Glenn	P
Tracy, Chad	1B
Whittleman, John	3B
Yan, Johan	3B

I could make an argument in favor of perhaps seven players. I could also argue for none. In any case, I can’t imagine more than three actually being added. They increase the roster to 34-37, and the high side of that range retains several players who could be waived without the fear of them becoming the next Armando Galarraga.

For the last two years, Texas hasn’t participated in the Rule 5 draft because its roster was full. Now, the Rangers should have ample room to swipe a player if desired or claim someone off waivers. The Rangers could also sign a minor-league free agent and protect him on the 40 if deemed necessary (as with Madrigal in 2007). And, Texas can sign some free agents, albeit most likely the inexpensive kind (role players, folks denied arbitration by other teams, etc.).

Just out of curiosity, what kind of active roster can be constructed without any free agents?

Rotation: Millwood, Feldman, and three of Feliz, Harrison, Holland, Hunter, Hurley, McCarthy, maybe Moscoso, and Nippert.

Bullpen: Francisco, O’Day, Wilson, and four out of a group of Eyre, Mathis, Madrigal, and whoever doesn’t make the rotation. (Even minus Guardado and Grilli, I count 16 MLB-experienced pitchers.)

Starters: Saltalamacchia, Davis / Kinsler / Andrus / Young, Murphy / Borbon / Cruz, Hamilton

Bench: Teagarden, German, Boggs, Ramirez or Gentry or Golson or (gulp) Arias

The above squad is one way of composing the ominous “$50 million payroll” under which Texas might operate in 2010 (which, by the way, includes the final $3 million payment to one Alex Rodriguez). To be sure, it would squander the efforts of Texas’s brightest young players, who can’t forge a postseason run on their own. That said, it at least lacks gaping holes. Texas won’t have Brian Bocock as its Opening Day shortstop.

Posted by Lucas at 12:55 PM

September 19, 2009

The Downside of the Teixeira Trade

On July 31, 2007, Texas traded 1B Mark Teixeira and lefty reliever Ron Mahay for catchers Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus, and pitchers Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones. Would the Rangers make that trade again? Yes, unquestionably. Despite the frustrating lack of development from Saltalamacchia, easily the most advanced prospect at the time of the trade, the Rangers are already at the cusp of surpassing Atlanta in terms of value at the MLB level for the players it received. As of the July trade deadline, Texas trailed Atlanta by 1.3 wins above replacement (using Fangraphs methodology), 4.0 (using Win Shares), or 5.9 (Baseball Prospectus). Furthermore, the Rangers have had and will have their players under cost-effective control for several seasons, while Atlanta -- having traded Teixeira for Kotchmann for free-agent-to-be LaRoche -- will have (almost) nothing from the trade in their employ in two weeks.

That said, more than two years since the trade, the Rangers have failed to find Teixeira's replacement. Chris Davis certainly looked like The Answer during the tail end of 2008, but 2009 has been disastrous: .202/.256/.415 with a 41% strikeout rate before a demotion to AAA, a better but still inadequate .263/.299/.438 with a 30% SO rate since his return. Roughly, I'd say he needs a .625 slugging percentage to adequately offset his season-long .262 OBP; to achieve that, he'd need 39 homers instead of his present 19.

Davis isn't the only culprit, of course, only the most prominent (keeping in mind he's only 23 and should not be forsaken yet). Other hitters, many of them established and ostensibly reliable, has reached base at only a marginally better rate and have provided minimal power.

Player	PA	AB	H	R	2B+3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Chris Davis	546	507	120	74	24	31	85	33	183	0	.237	.286	.469
Hank Blalock	375	351	92	46	22	15	49	19	77	0	.262	.299	.462
F. Catalanotto	160	141	39	18	8	1	9	14	10	0	.277	.354	.355
Chris Shelton	108	88	20	13	5	2	11	17	30	1	.227	.352	.352
Brad Wilkerson	95	82	20	16	5	3	12	10	25	1	.244	.326	.427
J. Saltalamacchia	91	89	19	11	7	1	7	2	27	0	.213	.231	.337
Ben Broussard	88	81	13	8	0	3	8	5	20	0	.160	.227	.272
Jason Botts	20	19	4	1	2	1	4	1	7	0	.211	.250	.474
Max Ramirez	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	.100	.182	.100
Andruw Jones	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	.200	.200	.200
TOTAL	1499	1373	329	187	67	57	187	102	386	2	.240	.295	.422

Let's reiterate for emphasis: In the two-plus years since the Teixeira trade, Texas's first baseman have batted .240/.295/.422. The non-Davis contingent, with nearly two-thirds of the plate appearances, has slugged .394. .394! Here's the performance of Texas's first basemen scaled to 162 games and compared to the average of other AL 1Bs during 2007-2009:

-	PA	AB	H	R	2B+3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Texas	665	609	146	83	30	25	83	45	171	1	.240	.295	.422
Rest of AL	665	582	157	83	36	24	90	68	113	3	.268	.347	.456
Difference	-	27	(11)	0	(6)	1	(7)	(23)	58	(2)	(.028)	(.052)	(.034)

Over the course of a season, the average non-Texas first baseman has collected 11 more hits (including six doubles but one fewer homer) and 23 additional walks.

Using a minimum of 400 plate appearances in a season, which individual AL batters have most closely imitated Texas's 1Bs during this span? Frankly, few players match well, because hitters with sub-.300 on-base percentages tend to lose their jobs.

Player	Year	AVG	OBP	SLG
Mike Jacobs	2009	.234	.304	.409
Rod Barajas	2009	.237	.269	.420
Vernon Wells	2007	.245	.304	.402
Brandon Inge	2009	.234	.321	.425
Alex Gordon	2007	.247	.314	.411
Emil Brown	2008	.244	.297	.386
Gary Matthews	2007	.252	.323	.419
Juan Uribe	2007	.234	.284	.394
Ramon Hernandez	2008	.257	.308	.406
Aubrey Huff	2009	.245	.310	.395

Huff is the only player to spend a majority of his time at first base (Jacobs has mostly DH'ed). 1Bs outside the top ten but reasonably close to Texas's aggregate performance include Lyle Overbay (.240/.315/.391 in 2007), this year's version of Huff (.253/.321/.405) and Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399).

Justin Smoak, Rangers Nation turns its lonely eyes to you (woo woo woo).

Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM

July 03, 2009

Who You Callin’ Lucky?

Evan Grant has taken umbrage to ESPN’s Rob Neyer and Fangraphs’ R.J. Anderson regarding their skepticism of Kevin Millwood’s success. Millwood is the “benefactor of an unsustainable amount of stranded runners [presently 86.8%, second best in baseball], thus keeping his ERA at a comfortable, and easily overrated, 2.64,� alleges Anderson. “Don’t be fooled by Millwood’s ERA,� asserts Neyer, citing his .261 BABIP.

Grant tells Neyer to “wake up� and further demurs:

It is very probably true that Millwood’s ability to strand runners will dip in the summer heat. After all, 86 percent is an astronomical number. But why is this viewed as a Millwood shortcoming.

Nobody is claiming Millwood’s exceptional strand rate is a shortcoming per se. Indeed, it’s a huge part of what has made him so effective. And that’s the problem. Millwood’s career strand rate is 71.5%. His best season is 79.1% in 2005, when he led the league in ERA. His present rate of 86.8%, if it holds up, would be the best in baseball since Pedro Martinez in 2000. Kevin Millwood is having a terrific season, no doubt, but Pedro Martinez he is not.

But attributing Millwood’s success to luck is asinine, first, and plainly against the crede of the stats analysts, second. Stats analysts don’t believe in luck. They believe in trends.

Frankly this statement simply isn’t true, or at least it’s misguided. “Luck� is Statspeak shorthand for a series of atypical occurrences; for example, stranding 87% of opposing runners for nearly half a season. Statheads attribute success to luck all the time. They do believe in luck in the sense that all players get lucky (or unlucky) sometimes. They don't believe in trends in the sense that luck is unsustainable in the long run.

Back to the broader point, Millwood’s performance is intriguing. His walk rate is typical for him. He’s not preventing homers exceptionally well. His strikeout rate is 14.8% the worst of his career. So, what is the source of his success?

Defense – Texas’s defense is unquestionably far better than last year.

BABIP, for better and worse – Yes, Neyer noted that Millwood’s .261 BABIP is the lowest of his career (his career BABIP is .306), which is to say, unsustainable, but I actually think Millwood might be on to something. He’s allowing fewer line drives (nearly automatic hits), more popups (automatic outs), and more grounders. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, he’s relying more heavily on his slider and changeup than ever before. Is the adjusted mix of pitches causing the beneficial change in his batted ball pattern? I can’t say, but it certainly isn’t hurting. The same applies to Millwood’s conditioning, as noted by Grant.

Luck – Yes, luck. There’s no way Millwood will continue to strand runners at such a high rate. Opposing hitters are batting .096 with two outs and runners in scoring position compared to .261 in other situations. Even if Millwood can sustain his low BABIP, he’s not going to keep retiring 90% of batters in two-out RISP situations.

Look, Millwood’s been a revelation, a pleasure to watch, and arguably the team MVP. But I’d bet his second-half ERA will be much closer to 4.00 than 2.64, and Texas will suffer a little as a result. I don’t see this as controversial or offensive. It seems pretty obvious. And I’ve watched him throw.

UPDATE: Hmmm. I googled "Kevin Millwood BABIP" and found that Yahoo's Scott Pianowski offered similar opinions, including the possible connection between his pitch selection and batted-ball outcomes, on June 27th. I didn't discover his article until after I posted mine. Scout's honor.

UPDATE 2: Lone Star Ball's Adam Morris posted a lengthier examination of Millwood that again pre-dates mine. And again, I didn't discover his article until after I posted mine. Scout's honor. I really was a Scout.

Posted by Lucas at 04:07 PM

May 07, 2009

Idle Thought

Buck Showalter's contract expires in five months.

Posted by Lucas at 11:21 PM

April 24, 2009

A Quick PitchF/X Look at Derek Holland's MLB Debut

Fastball Speed

By my count (which involved recategorizing two of 42 pitches), Derek Holland threw 37 fastballs, four sliders, and one changeup. Here's their speeds:

Yes, Holland can bring the heat. What I found interesting is that, beginning with the last pitch of the 7th inning, he didn't throw quite so hard. Whether due to early adrenaline or a late focus on command versus speed or just happenstance, the difference is real. Of his first 17 fastballs, all but three reached 95 or better. Of his last 20, all but three were below 95.

Fastballs	Overall	First 17 FBs	Last 20 FBs
Low	91.5	91.7	91.5
Median	94.0	95.9	93.7
High	97.1	97.1	96.1
Average	94.3	95.4	93.4

Pitch Location

The preceding chart is from the point of view of the catcher. Also, I've flipped the horizontal readings on lefthanded batters such that outside pitches are always to the right, inside to the left. The smaller box is the official strike zone (averaged for the varying heights of the opposing batters), and the larger one is 2.8 inches wider, the approximately width of the baseball. Splitting the wider zone into thirds, here's where Holland's pitches crossed the plate:

Horizontal Location	# of Pitches
Inside	0
Inner 3rd	2
Middle	22
Outer 3rd	4
Outside	14

Vertical Location	# of Pitches
Low	1
Lower 3rd	6
Middle	13
Upper 3rd	10
High	12

Holland almost never pitched inside, regardless of the batter's handedness, and usually worked high in the strike zone. That many high pitches isn't favorable, unless, of course, the pitcher can hit 95 with movement and mix in a slider.

Et Cetera

The plate ump was occasionally generous, once granting a strike on a pitch four inches outside the most liberal interpretation of the strike zone:

And, here's the location of Holland's slider that Aaron Hill waved at helplessly:

Posted by Lucas at 12:19 AM

April 17, 2009

How Young Is Elvis Andrus?

Elvis, 7 October 2007

Major League Baseball player Elvis Andrus would be:

The youngest player in the AAA Pacific Coast League (nearly four months younger than Neftali Feliz),

The 2nd youngest in the AA Texas League,

The 19th youngest in the high-A California League, and

The 85th youngest (out of 407) in the low-A South Atlantic League.

Posted by Lucas at 12:37 PM

April 06, 2009

It's a thin line between love and hate

Posted by Lucas at 03:15 PM

Predictions

My Computer says:

LAA 82-80
OAK 81-81
TEX 77-85
SEA 70-92

Personally, I’d like to add four wins to Seattle and two to everyone else. That said, this is an awfully weak division. Every team has serious issues. I’d give a 10% chance that the division winner finishes under .500.

I don’t share Joe Sheehan’s enthusiasm for the Athletics’ run prevention. Justin Duchscherer, even if healthy, is destined for a sharp regression. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill (like Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland) could be great MLB starting pitchers someday, but are they 2/5ths of the rotation on an 88-win team today? Brad Ziegler, closer? (The West will be much more entertaining in 2010.)

Los Angeles is missing three of its top five starters to begin the season, and its offense is nothing special. Bobby Abreu was a great pickup, perhaps the difference-maker in this division, but Kendry Morales is no Mark Teixeira. He’s not even Casey Kotchman. The Mariners won 67 Pythagorean games last year as opposed to their real 61, and some roster shuffling and internal improvement will help.

As for the Rangers: My computer has them scoring 822 runs and allowing 868, both significant declines from last year. The most at-bats lost from 2008 belong to Milton Bradley. The most new ones in 2009 will probably belong to Elvis Andrus. That’s 40 runs lost right there. I’ve got Texas with a 5.05 ERA, still the worst in baseball but better than last year’s 5.37, and fewer unearned runs surrendered. This is essentially my computer saying “this is still a bad staff, but it can’t be that bad again.� In my Hardball Times preview, written before I’d performed any computer modeling, I predicted Texas would finish within a hair of .500. That still sounds about right. I can see plenty of upside, a non-zero chance of sneaking a division title. I can also see 90 losses and a housecleaning.

My other picks are nearly identical to PECOTA; I’d hoped for more differences just for entertainment value. New York wins the East and Boston takes the wild card (PECOTA predicts the reverse). Cleveland wins the Central. New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay (a very hard-luck playoff omission with 92 wins) are the class of the league. I have the Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers in the NL, plus Atlanta as the wild card (PECOTA says Arizona). Let’s say Yankees over Dodgers in the World Series.

Posted by Lucas at 12:51 PM

February 18, 2009

Did Bradley Protect Hamilton?

Jamey Newberg says:

There’s probably a way to create splits that will show what Hamilton’s output was in the 114 games that Milton Bradley hit fourth, as opposed to the 48 games he didn’t.  I bet the disparity was significant. 

Quite so:

Category	Hamilton batting 3rd, Bradley 4th	Hamilton batting 3rd without Bradley or batting elsewhere
Appearances	497	207
AVG	.317	.275
OBP	.376	.357
SLG	.550	.484
BB%	8.7%	10.1%
IBB%	0.8%	2.4%

The disparity is significant; however, it doesn't prove much by itself. Correlation isn't causation. For example, Hamilton hit .341 on contact and .350 on balls in play with Bradley behind him, versus .298 and .311 without. Did Bradley's absence cause Hamilton to hit more balls directly into fielder's gloves? Doubtful. Having Bradley batting 4th probably helped Hamilton some, but it doesn't fully explain the disparity in the table.

Posted by Lucas at 01:01 PM

February 09, 2009

PECOTA Update

Last week, I ran a quick and dirty prediction of Texas's record using Baseball Prospectus's first run of PECOTA. My take: 790 runs scored, 920 allowed, 69 wins.

BP published its own standings today. Its take: 812 runs scored, 923 allowed, 72 wins.

Only Seattle, Houston and Pittsburgh are projected to win fewer games. Save us, Andruw Jones!

Posted by Lucas at 01:10 PM

February 02, 2009

Ron Washington Perplexes Me Sometimes

Per the Dallas Morning News,

The reality is manager Ron Washington believes [Josh] Hamilton is better suited as the No. 3 hitter, batting behind Michael Young. It isn't that Washington doesn't believe Hamilton can handle the cleanup spot. He just thinks Hamilton can do even more damage hitting behind Young and Ian Kinsler.

Numerous studies have shown that batting order doesn’t matter much. Certainly, the difference between batting Hamilton third or fourth isn’t huge. That said, if I’m the manager, I agonize over those decisions, because it’s my job to gain every possible advantage, no matter how small. No problem there.

Here’s the problem:

"The No. 4 guys gets off-speed stuff," Washington said on Monday. "Look back and Milton handled more off-speed stuff than fastballs. Hamilton handled more fastballs than breaking balls because they didn't want to put Hamilton on base and let Milton hurt them."

This is not true! Proportion of fastballs seen, per Fangraphs:

Name	FB%
Frank Catalanotto	66.6%
Milton Bradley	65.9%
Ramon Vazquez	63.8%
Marlon Byrd	63.2%
Gerald Laird	62.2%
Brandon Boggs	61.2%
Michael Young	59.5%
David Murphy	57.7%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	57.4%
Ian Kinsler	57.2%
Christopher Davis	55.3%
Josh Hamilton	53.4%
Hank Blalock	53.2%

Among Rangers with at least 200 at-bats, Bradley saw a greater proportion of fastballs than anybody but Frank Catalanotto. Hamilton saw fewer fastballs than anybody but Hank Blalock. Based on Hamilton’s playing time, the difference between him and Bradley is 328 fastballs, about two per game. That’s significant.

Again, it doesn’t matter too much. But I’m not reassured that Washington might be making batting-order decisions based on beliefs that can be discredited with just a little internet sleuthing. This isn’t the first time that he’s bewildered me.

 

Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM

January 31, 2009

PECOTA Does Not Love Texas

Baseball Prospectus just released its first run of PECOTA ratings for 2009. I’m not going to print their subscription-only data, but I have performed a quick analysis to answer the question of what PECOTA thinks of the Rangers this season.

Answer: not much.

Before I divulge the results, some background. PECOTA estimates plate appearances and innings pitched for all players, but it doesn’t attempt to justify them on a team level. Many of their predictions read as “what ifs� (for example, what if Martin Perez pitched 99 innings in Arlington?). Thus, the team-wide sums are preposterous (in Texas’s case, 8,700 PA and 2,600 IP). To correct this “problem� for my purposes, I made my own estimates of plate appearances and innings but still used PECOTA’s rate estimates verbatim. I also chopped Texas’s unearned runs to 75 (a little worse than the league average) from last year’s 107.

Offensively, PECOTA understandably thinks poorly of Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel. It also predicts Taylor Teagarden will bat .209 (albeit with ample walks and power). The more pressing issue is the regression toward the mean for most of the established hitters. Only Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler merit OBPs in excess of .350. The less said about Michael Young, the better.

PECOTA, as always, hates Texas pitching. The only hurlers with sub-5.00 ERAs are relievers Frank Francisco, C.J. Wilson, Josh Rupe and Warner Madrigal. PECOTA really thinks ill of Matt Harrison, and folks like Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz aren’t projected as saviors yet.

My team-level use of PECOTA predicts Texas will score about 790 runs and allow 920. That’s worth 69 wins. Ugh.

Big caveat: One potential problem with my analysis is scaling. That is, I could do this with every team and discover that the MLB as a whole has a net deficit in runs scored versus allowed, which of course is impossible. If, for example, I discovered that the “average� team had a net deficit of 30 runs, I’d have to add about three wins to every team’s total.

You might recreate this exercise with different results, but I think the general theme is clear. PECOTA forecasts a significant decline in Texas’s offense with only modest improvement in pitching. I look forward to BP’s own team-wide PECOTA-based predictions.

Posted by Lucas at 11:52 AM

January 23, 2009

Hurley Dissected At Beyond The Box Score

Harry Pavlidis at Beyond The Box Score has used my PitchF/X-related posts from 2008 as a starting point for some very detailed analysis of Eric Hurley's early starts and awful, final start.

Check it out.

My post on Hurley's first start.
Additional analysis.
And a brief post on Hurley's final start.

Posted by Lucas at 07:02 PM

January 11, 2009

First Take On Young Situation

In case you missed it...

Young
Demands
Trade.

1. I expected this to happen around January 2010, not now.

2. Here's what I wrote about Young a month ago for the upcoming Hardball Times Season Preview 2009. Consider it your sneak preview: "A broken finger and other nagging injuries resulted in six-year lows in average, OBP, and slugging percentage. He should rebound, but even if healthy, he’s not the .331/.385/.513-hitting marvel of 2005. In a strange coincidence, he won a Gold Glove just as discussion of a potential move to a less demanding position heated up. Young is popular, works tirelessly, leads by example and supplies intangibles by the bushel. Unfortunately, he’s also 32, not that far above-average at this point, and is just beginning a five-year, $80 million extension signed in 2007."

3. Elvis Andrus's Minor League Equivalency is .236/.279/.289. In terms of what that portends for 2009, I think that's pessimistic, but not by much. He's just 20, and his career line in full-season minor leagues is .272/.338/.357. 2008 was his best year for contact and his worst for walks and power. He could be worth 20 runs in the field and -20 at the plate in 2009.

4. Given the above paragraph, this situation indicates just how little Texas thinks of its internal options and the free-agent market at third, even as stopgaps. Or, it indicates how much Texas wants to get out from under (some of) Young's contract. Or some of each.

5. Being limited to about 35-40 players, I couldn't justify a Hardball Times entry for Elvis Andrus. Ah, well.

Posted by Lucas at 11:49 PM

October 30, 2008

Congratulations, Philadelphia. Except...

...all these articles mentioning Philly's first Series title since 1980. As if that were a long time. Relative to some other team's fortune, I mean.

Posted by Lucas at 01:15 AM

October 22, 2008

Idle Thought

The first game of the 2008 World Series featured the 15th-overall pick of the 2002 draft (Scott Kazmir) versus the 17th (Cole Hamels).

The 10th pick was Drew Meyer.

Posted by Lucas at 11:32 PM

October 02, 2008

Ranger Pitcher Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

Once again, here’s a fun little game: turning every pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines for Ranger pitcher who pitched at least 10 innings and is still with the organization. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right.

Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by ranking differences in average, on-base percentage, slugging, homer rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate between each Ranger pitcher and every hitter in baseball with at least 200 appearances.

Player	Opposing AVG / OBP / SLG --OPS	Opposing AVG+ / OBP+ / SLG+ -- OPS+	HR% - BB% - SO%	Most Comparable Batters ('08 Stats Only)
F Francisco	.200 / .277 / .357 -- .634	75 / 81 / 81 -- 62	2.7% - 9.8% - 31.4%	Jeff Mathis, Sean Rodriguez, Brandon Inge
W Littleton	.265 / .363 / .338 -- .701	99 / 106 / 77 -- 83	1.3% - 10.0% - 17.5%	Julio Lugo, Jamey Carroll, Asdrubal Cabrera
B McCarthy	.244 / .312 / .427 -- .739	91 / 91 / 97 -- 88	3.2% - 8.6% - 10.8%	Pedro Feliz, Willy Aybar, Joe Crede
J Wright	.283 / .362 / .377 -- .739	106 / 106 / 86 -- 92	1.3% - 9.2% - 15.8%	Ryan Sweeney, Felipe Lopez, Nick Punto
W Madrigal	.263 / .327 / .423 -- .750	98 / 96 / 96 -- 92	2.6% - 9.1% - 14.3%	Troy Tulowitski, Willy Aybar, Ben Francisco
K Loe	.288 / .328 / .440 -- .768	107 / 96 / 100 -- 96	2.2% - 6.0% - 14.9%	Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Anderson
J Benoit	.233 / .362 / .407 -- .769	87 / 106 / 93 -- 99	2.9% - 16.7% - 20.6%	Richie Weeks, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey
V Padilla	.275 / .351 / .447 -- .798	103 / 103 / 102 -- 105	3.4% - 8.6% - 16.8%	Torii Hunter, Ryan Church, Mike Lowell
S Feldman	.280 / .349 / .464 -- .813	104 / 102 / 105 -- 107	3.4% - 8.6% - 11.4%	Mike Lowell, Torii Hunter, JJ Hardy
K Gabbard	.292 / .398 / .411 -- .809	109 / 116 / 93 -- 109	1.9% - 14.8% - 12.5%	Russell Martin, Denard Span, Ray Durham
TEAM	.280 / .362 / .455 -- .817	104 / 106 / 103 -- 109	2.7% - 9.6% - 14.8%	Derrek Lee, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu
K Millwood	.312 / .361 / .462 -- .823	116 / 106 / 105 -- 111	2.3% - 6.4% - 16.3%	David DeJesus, Orlando Hudson, Alex Rios
J Rupe	.284 / .382 / .437 -- .819	106 / 112 / 99 -- 111	2.0% - 11.7% - 13.5%	Carlos Guillen, Ray Durham, Denard Span
C Wilson	.268 / .366 / .475 -- .841	100 / 107 / 108 -- 115	3.7% - 12.6% - 19.2%	Josh Willingham, Troy Glaus, Grady Sizemore
E Hurley	.268 / .336 / .515 -- .851	100 / 98 / 117 -- 115	4.7% - 8.4% - 12.1%	Hank Blalock, Mike Lowell, Rick Ankiel
M Harrison	.300 / .358 / .520 -- .878	112 / 105 / 118 -- 123	3.2% - 8.3% - 11.3%	Vlad Guerrero, Brian McCann, Justin Morneau
D Nippert	.308 / .385 / .488 -- .873	115 / 113 / 111 -- 124	2.9% - 10.9% - 16.1%	Bobby Abreu, Andrew Ethier, Justin Morneau
L Mendoza	.343 / .405 / .523 -- .928	128 / 118 / 119 -- 137	2.2% - 7.9% - 11.1%	Ian Kinsler, Xavier Nady, Dustin Pedroia
J Jennings	.307 / .406 / .588 -- .994	115 / 119 / 134 -- 153	5.9% - 13.3% - 8.9%	Carlos Quentin, Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez
D Mathis	.381 / .459 / .577 -- 1.036	142 / 134 / 131 -- 165	2.7% - 12.5% - 8.0%	Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, Milton Bradley
T Hunter	.404 / .443 / .702 -- 1.145	151 / 130 / 160 -- 190	6.5% - 4.8% - 14.5%	Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira

2007 list

2006 list

Posted by Lucas at 10:56 AM

September 30, 2008

Foresight Is Depressing

What I wrote for The Hardball Times 2008 Preview:

"Texas has a chance at a .500 record, but catching Los Angeles is beyond hope. The Rangers will probably amble to about 77 wins as they break in the youngsters and look towards 2009."

Posted by Lucas at 11:20 PM

July 31, 2008

Eric Hurley's Fastball

Last Sunday was really ugly:

Average FB Velocity, 1st 4 starts: 90.5
Average FB Velocity, July 27: 86.2

80% Velocity Range, 1st 4 starts: 88.6-92.5
80% Velocity Range, July 27: 85.0-87.4

Posted by Lucas at 07:40 PM

July 26, 2008

Can Nelson Cruz Play Major League Baseball?

Acquired from Milwaukee as part of the Carlos Lee trade, Nelson Cruz provided scant evidence of being a Major League-caliber hitter in nearly 500 plate appearances during 2006-2007. Despite a another terrific season in AAA in 2007 (.352/.428/.698), he couldn’t crack the big-league roster this spring, and he then suffered the indignity of being unclaimed on waivers.

Since then, he’s enjoying one of the most dominant AAA seasons in recent memory. Concurrent with Marlon Byrd continuing to bat 5th or 6th despite a line 247/.327/.384, calls for another chance in the Majors have amplified from a murmur to a dull roar.

Can Nelson Cruz have a belatedly successful Major League career? Cruz turned 28 on July 1, although he’s classified as a 27-year-old in terms of the 2008 season. One method of answering this question is to compare him to other successful minor-league hitters in the same age group. We don’t want young, top prospects or greybeards. We’re looking at the guys on the fringe: failed/injured prospects and “never-weres” who suddenly erupted.

I compiled every season between 1992-2008 in which a AAA hitter aged 26-28 produced at least one of the following:

• 30 homers
• A .600 slugging percentage (minimum 350 appearances)
• >100 Runs Created (a Bill James stat measuring overall performance)

I found 51 such players (note that 2008 stats are pro-rated) and compared them to Cruz in terms of a variety of stats including rates for all extra-base hits, homers alone, walks, strikeouts, steals, and batting average. Here they are, ranked from most to least similar to Cruz:

1. Dwayne Hosey, OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Dwayne Hosey	1994	27	OF	OMA	KCR	467	.333	.420	.628	27	12.4%	5.8%	13.1%	18.2%	9.6

Note: RC/G = Runs Created per Game, indicative of number of runs nine Nelson Cruz's would score.

Which of these events is not like the others?

• January 1989: Released by Chicago White Sox
• May 1991: Released by Oakland
• December 1991: Selected by San Diego in minor-league phase of Rule 5 draft
• October 1993: Granted free agency
• August 1995: Selected off waivers by Boston
• October 3, 1995: Started in CF and led off 1995 American League Division Series

Entering 1994, Dwayne Hosey was a thrice-released outfielder with just enough power and speed to secure continued employment, if only the itinerant kind. Despite seven years of experience, Hosey had logged only 32 games in AAA before his career-best outburst. Still, Hosey found himself in Omaha again in 1995. He was batting .295/.363/.535 with 12 homers and 15 steals when the Red Sox selected him off waivers on August 31.

Injected into the starting lineup almost immediately, Hosey batted .338/.408/.618 in September and stole the starting CF job from Lee Tinsley (who was batting a respectable-for-the-position .284/.359/.402). On the evening of October 3, Hosey found himself in the batter’s box for the first pitch of the ALDS against Cleveland’s Dennis Martinez.

Hosey went 0-12 with two walks in the series. Boston traded Tinsley in the offseason, seemingly insuring everyday play for Hosey, but injuries and ineffectiveness (.218/.282/.333) soon forced him back to the minors. The man who led off the ALDS in 1995 would play his last MLB game only eight months later.

2. Micah Franklin , OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Micah Franklin	1998	26	OF	IWA	CHC	418	.329	.423	.655	5	13.6%	6.9%	14.1%	17.2%	10.4

Franklin was a 3rd-round selection (90th overall) by the Mets, who released him after two lackluster seasons in short-season leagues. Franklin hit 51 homers during the next two years, becoming enough of a prospect to warrant a late 1994 trade to Pittsburgh for Brian Hunter (the slow guy with some power, not the speed demon).

Franklin was claimed off waivers by Detroit in 1995 and traded to traded to St. Louis in 1996. Entering 1997, he’d hit 94 homers in the previous four years. He finally got a taste of the Majors that May and batted .324/.378/.500 in 27 plate appearances. It wasn’t enough to stick, and the Cardinals released him even before the season ended.

In 1998, at the age of 26 and with his 5th organization, Franklin had his career year. Chicago nevertheless declined to add him to its 40-man roster. Rather than hope for another chance to be a 5th outfielder somewhere, Franklin moved to Japan and batted .238/.348/.502 with 23 homers for the Nippon Ham Fighters in 1999. He appears to have suffered an injury plagued season in 2000, and in 2001 he returned to the US. After three more modestly successful seasons among four teams, he was done at the age of 32.

3. Calvin Pickering, 1B

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Calvin Pickering	2004	27	1B	OMA	KCR	369	.314	.444	.712	0	13.0%	9.5%	19.0%	23.0%	11.6

As a 21-year-old in 1998, Pickering batted .309/.425/.566 with 31 homers for AA Bowie. Nevertheless, the Orioles traded for 33-year-old Jeff Conine to man first and retained 40-year-old Harold Baines as the DH. Injuries and perhaps discouragement led to two lackluster seasons in AAA. During a third and better AAA campaign in 2001, Baltimore waived him, and division-rival Boston placed the winning claim.

Another injury prevented Pickering from taking the field with the Red Sox. He spent 2003 with the Mariners (cut in Spring Training), a Mexican team, and Cincinnati (cut after the season).

As an Omaha Royal in 2004, Pickering produced one of the best power surges in recent years, hitting 35 homers in 92 games and slugging .712. He received his first lengthy trial in the Majors and batted .246/.338/.500 with another seven homers in 35 games.

Come 2005, Pickering was shipped back to Omaha after just seven games (.148/.226/.259). The Royals gave most of their 1B at-bats to 37-year-old Matt Stairs. Not that Stairs was a bad player, but the Royals were dead last in the AL homers and lost 102 games. If Pickering were a total bust, then the Royals lose… 105? So what. The Royals also bestowed significant playing time to the likes of Joe McEwing, Denny Hocking, and especially Terrence Long. Just a stupidly, stupidly assembled and operated club.

Anyway… Pickering batted .275/.384/.528 with another 23 homers in Omaha. He spent 2006 in Korea and has logged some time in the independent leagues lately.

4. Dallas McPherson, 3B

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Dallas McPherson	2008	27	1B	ABQ	FLA	389	.294	.404	.666	12	12.6%	8.7%	15.4%	30.8%	10.0

Drafted 57th overall in 2001, McPherson quickly established himself as a premier hitting talent. McPherson batted .310/.401/.596 between high-A and AA as a 22-year-old, after which Baseball America ranked him the 33rd best prospect in baseball. He topped himself in 2004, blasting 40 homers and slugging .670, and jumped to 12th on BA’s list. Still, even with Anaheim 3B Troy Glaus frequently injured, McPherson didn’t receive more than a brief look in the Majors.

With Glaus gone in 2005, McPherson had a full-time gig but couldn’t take advantage. His walk-strikeout ratio had decayed as he climbed the minors, and in Anaheim it collapsed. That and injuries limited him to 101 games and a .296 on-base percentage through 2006. He missed the entire 2007 season with back problems, and the Angels non-tendered him last December.

McPherson signed with the Marlins, but new injuries prevented him from making the club. Now healthy and in the extremely hitter-friendly environment of Albuquerque, McPherson is presently battling Nelson Cruz for the most homers in professional baseball. Too bad Florida doesn’t have a DH. His 32% strikeout rate and good-but-not-great-for-Albq .294 average call into question whether he’ll make enough contact to succeed in the Majors, but he’ll definitely get another chance.

5. Felipe Crespo, 1B/OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Felipe Crespo	1999	26	1B	FRN	SFG	463	.332	.445	.616	17	12.1%	5.2%	16.8%	15.8%	10.1

Crespo was drafted 95th overall in 1991 by the Blue Jays as a 2B with good contact and OBP skills. Crespo advanced to AAA by 1995 and played in 34 games for Toronto during 1996-1997.

Of the ten players with seasons most similar to Nelson Cruz, Crespo is one of only three to spend an entire season in the Majors (the others are Brian Daubach and Lee Stevens). Unfortunately for Crespo, he’d switched nearly full time to the outfield and had no chance of supplanting Toronto’s young and spry trio of Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz Jr., and Shawn Green (this was 1998, remember). Crespo had 153 plate appearances in 66 games and batted .262/.342/.362, admirable considering the often lengthy gaps between at-bats.

Toronto released Crespo during 1999’s Spring Training. As a 26-year-old Fresno Grizzly, he inexplicably thumped 24 homers and slugged .616. He previous bests were 13 and .493. In 2000, he again lasted an entire year in the Majors as an infrequently used 1B/OF, batting .290/.351/.443.

In 2001, he abruptly stopped making contact, perhaps party due to plantar fasciitis. Crespo fluttered through Philadelphia, Japan’s Yomuiri, and AAA Louisville before retiring at Age 31 in 2004.

6-10:

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Brian Daubach	1998	26	OF	CHL	FLA	577	.316	.411	.634	9	14.6%	6.1%	13.9%	19.8%	9.7
Joe Dillon	2004	28	3B	ABQ	FLA	449	.325	.394	.665	12	15.6%	6.7%	10.2%	18.9%	9.8
Jose Fernandez	2001	26	3B	SLK	ANA	507	.338	.410	.624	9	13.4%	5.9%	10.8%	17.9%	9.5
Lee Stevens	1996	28	1B	OKC	TEX	489	.325	.405	.643	3	14.5%	6.5%	11.9%	18.4%	9.9
Roberto Petagine	1998	27	1B	IND	CIN	433	.331	.439	.617	3	12.7%	5.5%	16.2%	16.4%	10.2

The list improves for Nelson Cruz at this point. Brian Daubach and Lee Stevens both had a respectable stretch of 4-5 years after their breakout AAA seasons. Petagine was Big In Japan for five years, Fernandez for three. Dillon’s one season with Yomuiri was a disaster.

11-50:

11. Derrick White, 1998, Age 28	32. Brad Eldred, 2008, Age 28
12. Fernando Seguignol, 2003, Age 26	33. Robin Jennings, 2000, Age 28
13. Roberto Petagine, 1997, Age 27	34. D.T. Cromer, 1999, Age 26
14. Harvey Pulliam, 1995, Age 26	35. Nigel Wilson, 1996, Age 28
15. Bubba Crosby, 2003, Age 26	36. Graham Koonce, 2003, Age 26
16. Scott McClain, 1998, Age 26	37. Damon Minor, 2000, Age 27
17. Jim Tatum, 1994, Age 27	38. Chad Mottola, 1999, Age 26
18. Andy Green, 2005, Age 26	39. Doug Mientkiewicz, 2000, Age 28
19. George Arias, 1998, Age 27	40. Brian Raabe, 1996, Age 27
20. David McCarty, 1997, Age 28	41. Julio Zuleta, 2002, Age 26
21. Chad Mottola, 2000, Age 27	42. Josh Whitesell, 2008, Age 27
22. Luke Scott, 2005, Age 28	43. Rick Ankiel, 2007, Age 28
23. Val Pascucci, 2007, Age 27	44. Earl Snyder, 2004, Age 27
24. Eddie Zambrano, 1993, Age 26	45. Phil Hiatt, 1996, Age 27
25. Matt Diaz, 2004, Age 28	46. Jack Cust, 2006, Age 26
26. Kevin Witt, 2004, Age 26	47. Rod McCall, 1998, Age 28
27. Jamie D'Antona, 2008, Age 27	48. Jonathan Van Every, 2008, Age 27
28. Craig Brazell, 2007, Age 26	49. Ron Coomer, 1994, Age 28
29. Terrmel Sledge, 2003, Age 27	50. Mark Saccomanno, 2008, Age 28
30. Calvin Murray, 1999, Age 27	51. Drew Denson, 1994, Age
31. Jon Knott, 2006, Age 27	.

Conclusions:

Truly a mixed bag. Cruz’s 2008 compares favorably to a couple of guys who earned some MLB coin (Stevens and Daubach), several players who’ve succeeded at advanced ages for various reasons (Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Jack Cust), a contemporary hoping for another chance (McPherson)… and no fewer than two dozen AAAA All-Stars.

That said, Cruz is in many respects dissimilar to most players on the list. Some were already sedentary 1Bs or DHs, and few had his combination of speed, power and defensive prowess. Of the 52 players studied, Cruz ranks 1st in slugging and Runs Created per game, 2nd in home run rate, and 4th in OBP. With over a month remaining in the season, he already ranks 5th in homers and 4th in steals. Forget his age: Cruz could finish 2008 with one of the best AAA seasons in the past 17 years, period. To an extent, the operative measure isn’t “players most similar to Cruz statistically” but “players almost as good as Cruz statistically.”

On the other hand, we’ve been down this road. As mentioned, Cruz hit the cover off the ball for the Redhawks in 2007, and he has a career minor-league line of .298/.368/.540.

Cruz’s administrative status is also a huge hurdle. Traded or not, he can declare free agency if not placed on a 40-man roster after the season. Texas, or someone, will have to make a real commitment. Despite his amazing season, I’m skeptical that anyone will. Come 2009, Cruz may find himself in a new team’s Spring training facility on a minor-league deal. Or Japan.

Posted by Lucas at 03:52 PM

July 18, 2008

PitchFX On Eric Hurley: Pitch Location And Results

Eric Hurley allowed homers at a 4.4% rate in 75 AAA innings, nearly double the league average. In four MLB starts, his homer rate is 3.2%, better but still sub-par. The book on Hurley is his tendency to work high in the zone (or his inability to work low, if you prefer) results in too many fly balls, hence too many homers and other hard-hit balls.

With PitchFX, we can examine the relationship between his pitch location and opponents’ success at the plate. In this case, I’m focusing solely on balls hit into play (including homers), of which there are 75. One was a bunt single, and two have no pitch data, leaving 72 balls for study.

Caveat: Hurley hasn’t pitched enough to generate respectable sample sizes. I’m doing this exercise because I think it’s interesting, but how he’s performed so far doesn’t necessarily portend his future.

The split between high and low pitches is exactly 36:36. As shown in the graph, a few hitters have hit a ball into play on a pitch higher than the top of the strike zone, while no hitter has done so on a pitch below the bottom of the zone.

1. What type of pitch is crossing the plate high or low?

As expected, most of the high pitches are fastballs, and the low pitches contain a heavier proportion of sliders.

Pitch Height	FA	SL	CH
< 2.6'	50%	39%	9%
> 2.6'	69%	19%	11%

2. Are high pitches resulting in more fly balls?

Yes. The vertical midrange of the strike zone of hitters faced by Hurley is 2.52 feet. At 2.60 feet is a pretty strong delineation in fly ball tendency:

Pitch Height	Grounder	Line Drive	OF Fly	IF Fly
< 2.6'	33%	31%	33%	3%
> 2.6'	11%	14%	64%	11%

The ratio for all pitches is 22% grounders, 22% line drives, 48% outfield flies, and 8% infield flies.

3. Are high pitches resulting in more hits?

More home runs, yes (two on high strikes, one low). More hits, no. Opponents are batting a meager .194 when making contact on high strikes and a robust .389 on low strikes. The corresponding slugging percentages are .389 and .667.

What’s hurting Hurley most so far is a 31% line drive rate on low pitches. Opponents are batting .727 and slugging 1.000 on those liners, which sounds absurdly high but is actually near the average for the league.

Conversely, opponents are also hitting only .130 (3-for-23) on fly balls on high pitches. He’s also generated four infield flies (nearly as surely an out as a strikeout) on high pitches, only one on a low pitch.

So, Hurley should ditch the slider and concentrate on heat up in the zone where it’s safe.

Just kidding. Hurley can’t expect to turn 87% of high-strike flies into outs in the long run. Several pitchers (for example, Scott Kazmir, Rich Harden, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver) are succeeding with very low ground ball rates, but they also have extremely high strikeout rates (Kazmir, Harden) or are no worse than above-average both in walks and Ks (Baker, Weaver).

At present, Hurley has a respectable walk rate (7.4%) but a below-average strikeout rate (12.6%), and 70% of his balls in play have been liners or outfield flies. Despite his 3.57 ERA, that’s a pretty toxic brew. He’ll need some combination of more strikeouts and more grounders to succeed in the long run.

Posted by Lucas at 05:42 PM

July 14, 2008

Some Quick Research on C.J. Wilson

33 MLB relievers have received at least 10 save opportunities in 2008. Here's how C.J. Wilson ranks in various categories:

Category		Rank
Average	.258	25
On-Base Percentage	.348	25
Slugging Percentage	.422	26
WHIP	1.57	27
HR %	0.8%	24
BB+HBP %	12.3%	24
SO %	19.3%	22
Pitches / Batter	4.1	22
Pitches / Inning	18.7	29

How Wilson ranks when facing his first batter:

Category		Rank
Average	.293	24
On-Base Percentage	.341	22
Slugging Percentage	.537	31

Based on a comparison of Wilson's peripheral stats to the other 32 relievers, the following closers are having seasons most similar to Wilson in 2008 (from most to least simlar):

J. Isringhausen
R. Franklin
B. Wilson
G. Sherrill
J. Valverde
M. Corpas
B. Ryan
S. Torres

And the least similar relievers:

M. Rivera
J. Soria
B. Morrow
J. Papelbon
B. Wagner
J. Nathan
B. Lidge
B. Jenks

Regarding Wilson’s personality: His flamboyance and occasional indifference to PR protocols will always make him an outsized target of affection when he’s performing well. Conversely, when he’s faltering, his comments/hair/hobbies/etc. will face extreme ridicule. This can be expressed algebraically as follows:

P = Performance [range of 0-10, 5 = average]
WL = Wilson Love [infinitely positive or negative, measured in picocuries]

WL = ( P – 5 ) x Modifier,

where Modifier > 1

I have yet to define this modifier numerically. It might be exponential rather than multiplicative.

Posted by Lucas at 06:01 PM

June 29, 2008

Clarifications

Randy Galloway, this morning:

If you are bringing up a Chris Davis... shouldn’t it be as an everyday player? Does that make sense, even if holding them out at times against certain pitchers is also acceptable? But if there is a thought, or if the minor league stats show Davis might struggle a tad with lefties, then keep him in OKC to face those lefties, and not have him sit for those up here. Any doubt that creeps into Davis’ mind that he might not be trusted against lefties is a doubt that absolutely should not be there at this stage of a career.”

Chris Davis’s career splits:

-	vs. Left	vs. Right
Average	.315	.299
On-Base	.376	.349
Slugging	.573	.602
HR / PA	5.1%	6.9%
BB / PA	7.3%	7.3%
SO / PA	24.1%	25.4%

Chris Davis’s splits in 2008:

-	vs. Left	vs. Right
Average	.293	.343
On-Base	.333	.398
Slugging	.552	.665
HR / PA	6.3%	7.1%
BB / PA	4.8%	8.6%
SO / PA	27.0%	21.1%

Davis's BB/SO ratio has broken down against lefties this season. The rest is peachy. If Davis is having self-esteem issues versus lefties, he's hiding them well.

Idle thought: Under this philosophy, would Hank Blalock (lifetime .224/.279/.345 versus lefties) ever have become a Major Leaguer?

“Why is [Brandon Boggs] up here, playing maybe twice a week, when the kid shows definite potential? Boggs has been an asset for the Rangers when he has played, but is he benefiting in the long run from all the sitting?”

Boggs has never appeared in fewer than three games in any seven-day period:

Posted by Lucas at 05:52 PM

June 13, 2008

Analyzing Eric Hurley

Eric Hurley allowed four runs in six innings in his Major League debut on Thursday. His first start was, like many of his AAA appearances, “great except for the homers.” Hurley has allowed home runs at nearly double the league rate this season, resulting in decent overall performances when the rest of his game is on and disasters when he’s off.

By design, Hurley drew the worst offense in the American League as an opponent. The Royals have scored fewer than four runs per game and against righties are batting .256/.306/.368 with a 6% walk rate. Still, they’re not the New Orleans Zephyrs. Hurley made some mistakes and was duly punished. That said, Hurley showed admirable poise on the mound, worked efficiently, and often lived up to his considerable potential.

The magic of pitchFX encourages (nay, demands) excruciating detailed analyses of his performance. Let’s go:

Pitch Types and Movement:

After leading off with 15 consecutive fastballs, Hurley mixed in a slider and occasional changeup. He threw 68 of 92 pitches for strikes and didn’t walk a batter. Here’s his pitch selection with speeds and strike percentages:

Pitch Type	Thrown	Average Initial Speed	Minimum	Maximum	% Strike or Contact
Fastball	59	91.1	86.9	94.1	68%
Changeup	10	80.2	78.5	82.5	60%
Slider	23	84.5	80.1	86.9	78%

The next chart displays the movement of each pitch relative to a ball thrown without spin. This particular chart doesn’t show pitch location, just movement.

On the vertical axis, a positive number represents a the ball that doesn’t descend as much as a spin-free throw. A negative number indicates more drop. On the horizontal axis, a negative number indicates the ball tails toward a right-handed batter or away from a lefty swinger.

The backspin on fastballs retards their downward descent, so they show more vertical “rise,” and they usually tail into a right-handed batter (if thrown by a righty like Hurley). Sliders tend to cut away from righties and have minimal rise. Some pitchers’ sliders have extra downward movement in a “slurvy” fashion, but not Hurley’s. Indeed, his sliders often gave the appearance of rising upon release before snapping leftward. (Note that nobody’s pitches actually rise.) A curve, if Hurley threw one, would show up below the slider, indicating the most downward movement.

Vertical Location:

Vertical Location	ALL	FASTBALLS
Below Strike Zone	9	3
Lower Third in Zone	16	7
Middle Third in Zone	31	24
Upper Third in Zone	25	16
Above Strike Zone	11	9

Hurley clearly favored the upper part of the strike zone, particularly with fastballs. I constantly read of how he’s attempting to locate more pitches on the lower part of the plate, but only 10 of his 59 fastballs touched the lower third of the plate or below. Furthermore, most of them don’t look like failed efforts to aim low. Plain and simple, he’s gearing up and throwing a standard “rising” fastball.

Horizontal Location:

Away, away, away. 31 of Hurley’s pitches missed on the outside part of the plate compared to just six inside. The umpire’s slightly off-center strike zone might have played a role in Hurley’s location.

Hoizontal Location in Strike Zone	ALL
Inside Strike Zone (toward hitter)	6
Inside Third of Zone	16
Middle Third of Zone	18
Outside Third of Zone	21
Outside Strike Zone (away from hitter)	31

Lefties Versus Righties:

Opponents	Pitches	Fastball	Changeup	Slider
to Lefties	69	71%	14%	14%
to Righties	23	43%	0%	57%
ALL	92	64%	11%	25%

Hurley threw more sliders than fastballs to right-handed batters, taking advantage of the slider’s tail away from the hitter. Against lefties, he focused on the fastball. All ten of his changeups were to lefties. The charts reconfirm his efforts to work the outer part of the plate. (Note: This chart and all that follow are displayed as if the viewer is the catcher looking toward the pitcher. A right-handed batter would stand on the left side of the chart. Anything within the “rulebook” strike zone is absolutely a strike. The wider zone is 2.8 inches (about the width of the ball) and represents everything that could (and probably should) be a strike. PitchFX isn’t perfect, and neither are umpires, so there’s some leeway in this zone.)

Results by Batted Ball Location:

The ground/fly data in a box score only refer to outs, and they characterize a harmless pop-up to the catcher no differently than a fly ball caught on the warning track. Hurley’s fly tendencies were on uncomfortably clear display. Excluding the bunt, 75% of Kansas City’s batted balls were outfield flies or line drives. Even in consideration of the two homers, he could have fared worse.

Balls in Play	Number	Opposing Average / Slugging
Grounder	3	.000 / .000
Line Drive	4	.750 / 1.000
Flyball	11	.182 / .909
Infield Pop	2	.000 / .000
Bunt	1	1.000 / 1.000

Results by Pitch Type:

Hurley’s ability to throw strikes and induce bad swings with his slider was most impressive. This is described in the next table. Conversely, batters swung at 27 fastballs and made contact (in play or foul) with all but two.

Results	Ball	Called Strike	Swinging Strike	Foul	Ground Out	Line Out	Fly Out	Infield Pop	Hit	HBP
Fastball	19	12	2	13	1	1	5	1	4	1
Changeup	4	1	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
Slider	5	3	5	3	1	0	3	1	2	0

The next charts display pitch locations and results by pitch type.

The fastball chart shows his tendency to work high and occasional control lapses. The two hits within the “rulebook” strike zone were home runs. Sometimes, as on those pitches, his fastball tended to float more than break. I didn’t create separate charts for batter handedness, but I should note that the umpire was squeezing Hurley a little on fastballs in toward left-handed batters and giving him an extra two or three inches on the outside part of the plate.

The slider is another story. The couple of them didn’t slide, and one slid too much, but on the whole it was his most effective pitch.

Hurley’s changeup was all over the place. That said, he didn’t suffer any damage from it.

Fastball Velocity:

Hurley’s 1st-inning fastballs rarely exceeded 90. During the last four innings, only one of his fastballs failed to surpass 90. He steadily touched 92-93 after the 2nd and showed no apparent fatigue.

Posted by Lucas at 08:38 AM

June 05, 2008

Draft Day Guess

Sent to Jamey Newberg via AIM at 1130 last night:

"[Yonder] alonso or [Ethan] martin. texas will select one of them. that's my guess. don't think crow or hosmer will be around."

Posted by Lucas at 11:00 AM

April 25, 2008

Two Minus Three Equals Negative Fun!

Texas pitchers have issued the most walks (114) and fewest strikeouts (109) in the American League. Thus, they’re headed for the dubious distinction of completing a season with more walks than strikeouts. That won’t happen, but it’s fun to think about (in a self-destructive way).

The Rangers are on pace for 767 strikeouts and 803 walks, a difference of -36. Until the mid-1950s, negative differences weren’t uncommon. No pitching staff has tallied fewer strikeouts than walks since the 1956 Philadelphia Athletics (-67).

In the last fifteen years, Milwaukee has the worst difference, +95, in the 144-game 1995 season. The worst full season belongs to the epically bad ’96 Tigers staff, which had 784 walks and 957 strikeouts, a difference of +173. Detroit allowed 6.8 runs per game, 1,015 for the season.

Regarding the 803 walk pace: It would be the third most in MLB history behind the notorious 1915 Athletics and the 1949 Yankees. The worst total in the last fifteen years (784) belongs to the aforementioned ’96 Tigers.

Regarding the 767 strikeout pace: The only team with fewer strikeouts in the last fifteen years is the 2003 Tigers with 764. They won 43 games.

And there’s more! Texas is also on pace to allow 1,690 hits. That’s well below the record of 1,993 by the 1930 Phillies, during an era when teams routinely hit .290. But, excluding Colorado, it would be the third-most since 1940, after the ’97 Athletics (1,734) and ’96 Tigers (1,699). Considering the offensive context, allowing 1,690 hits in 2008 might be worse. Incidentally, the 3rd and 4th worst post-1940 hit totals belong to the ’00 and ’01 Rangers.

Posted by Lucas at 06:11 PM

April 21, 2008

The Rundown Museum Proudly Displays...

Francisco Goya, Boston Devouring The Rangers, oil mural transferred to canvas, circa 1823.

Posted by Lucas at 02:50 PM

April 19, 2008

More Strike Calls

Regarding the irritation of Manny Ramirez and Milton Bradley at Jerry Meals's strike zone on Friday, Bradley at least has an argument. Here's the called strike in question:

The outer box is 2.9 inches (the width of the ball) around the rule-book strike zone. It gives the full benefit of the doubt to the umpire.

As for Manny...

...no telling what what going through his head.

Posted by Lucas at 02:16 PM

April 18, 2008

Close, But No Cigar

Benoit's final pitch to Marco Scutaro on Wednesday was Ball Four. Barely.

Posted by Lucas at 05:45 PM

March 27, 2008

Opening Day Lineup

Per T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com:

Manager Ron Washington has set his Opening Day lineup. Here is what [lefty] Erik Bedard will be facing

2B Ian Kinsler
SS Michael Young
CF Josh Hamilton
3B Hank Blalock
DH Milton Bradley
LF David Murphy
RF Marlon Byrd
C Gerald Laird
1B Ben Broussard

Yes, Washington is going with Blalock at cleanup hitter. He said Bradley is not ready for the role and Blalock has convinced him that he can bat cleanup. Frank Catalanotto will be on the bench for Opening Day but will still be out there plenty against right-handed pitchers. Broussard will bat last.

Texas has never had an Opening Day first baseman hit ninth. Here’s the previous 36 years:

1st -- 1
2nd -- 3
3rd -- 12
4th -- 3
5th -- 10
6th -- 4
7th -- 2
8th -- 1
9th -- 0

Mike Jorgensen played first and batted 8th for the ’79 edition. He’d been a good hitter in the early 70s, but with Texas he soon lost his job to a younger Pat Putnam. Putnam hit 7th on Opening Day 1981, and Lee Stevens hit 7th for the ’99 offensive juggernaut.

I don’t get too bent out of shape about lineups, but: May I cautiously suggest that if a team’s first baseman is batting ninth on Opening Day, something is wrong. The player shouldn’t be in the lineup... the regular 1B is hurt... the manager is misguided... something.

Regarding Washington’s quote about Bradley, Milton has started 62 games at cleanup and batted .338/.447/.546. He also has more career at-bats in the #3 spot than anywhere else. May I cautiously suggest that Bradley could hit higher than fifth, even coming off an injury.

Interestingly, in light of the common knowledge that Broussard doesn’t hit lefties, he has a better line against them than Blalock: .227/.290/.399 versus .226/.280/.349. At least in terms of historical performance, Texas inarguably will have its worst lefty hitter batting cleanup, Washington's convictions notwithstanding.

Maybe this kitteh picture will relieve my frustration:

Posted by Lucas at 01:55 PM

March 09, 2008

Wonderin'

Manager Ron Washington has been adamant [that Ben] Broussard will open the season playing regularly against lefties. The Rangers are expected to face Seattle lefty Erik Bedard on opening day.

"I don't want him coming to the park every day wondering if he's going to play against a left-hander," Washington said. "He's going to play against them until he proves he can't."

I know how to keep Broussard from wondering. You say: “NO! Ben, you will not start against lefties! Ever, ever, ever! When you do start, you will be pulled for a pinch-hitter if the opposition brings in a lefty. When you don’t start, you’ll pinch-hit against righty relievers.”

And then, for good measure, you type those words and tape them to his locker. Voila, no more wondering.

Was Broussard unfairly cast into a platoon role early in his career? I think not, but even if so, the fact remains that he’s 31 years old and hasn’t hit lefties well since A-ball. Broussard has a line of .227/.290/.399 in 387 MLB appearances against lefties. In 114 appearances in AA and AAA, he batted .214/.289/.369. 501 PAs with a sub-.300 on-base percentage may not provide absolute proof that he doesn’t deserve to play against lefties, but the evidence is beyond a reasonable doubt.

Meanwhile…

Player	Bats	MLB PA	MLB Line	AA-AAA PA	AA-AAA Line
Broussard	L	387	.227/.290/.399	114	.214/.289/.369
Botts	S	61	.283/.361/.358	380	.357/.432/.646
Shelton	R	256	.269/.323/.420	218	.277/.390/.495

…Chris Shelton and Jason Botts have far superior records in both the Majors and high minors against righties. Botts hasn’t translated his sterling AAA record into big-league success, but he’s at least shown some aptitude at reaching base against lefties. Also, unlike the placeholders Broussard and Shelton, Botts has a small chance at a role on the next good Rangers team.

How about Frank Catalanotto at first (career .248/.332/.344)? Stupid, right? Well, replacing Broussard with Frank Catalanotto gains 30 points of OBP but loses over 50 in slugging, pretty close to a wash. That only emphasizes the absurdity of this situation. Nobody would suggest starting Cat at first against lefties, yet the record indicates he’d be no worse than Broussard.

Washington has an obligation to start either the best players, or those who could become the best. Against lefties, Broussard fits neither description.

Posted by Lucas at 10:35 PM

February 27, 2008

Botts vs. Cruz, Expanded

(This is what I wrote for the Newberg Report recently plus bonus material at the end.)

Last week, Evan Grant reported the not-surprising news that Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz were essentially fighting for one roster spot. Who’s more likely to win?

Cruz has the defensive advantage, to be sure, though Botts can narrow that advantage if he proves capable of handling first base this spring. Also, for the first time in a while, Texas appears to have above-average outfield defense. With Josh Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, and (eventually) Milton Bradley roaming the field, the need for another plus glove isn’t quite the high priority of previous years.

Both Botts and Cruz fared well in winter ball. Unfortunately, both Liga Dominicana and Liga Mexicana del Pacifico play roughly equivalent to AAA, which is to say their exploits were par for the course. With neither having established himself, the battle may come down to which player shows more in 50-or-so Spring Training at-bats. For a couple of reasons, that’s virtually a dice roll.

Here’s an example related to my “anything can happen in two weeks� math from last week. Say you know that in the long run, Michael Young will bat .300 and Ben Broussard will bat .250. What is the probability that Broussard will hit for a higher average than Young over the course of just 50 at-bats? The answer is 25%. If the “real� difference is only 25 points (say, .300 vs. .275), the weaker player will outhit the stronger one 35% of the time. If there’s a genuine difference between Botts and Cruz, 50 at-bats may not reveal the superior player, and they might wrongly suggest the inferior hitter is better. (These figures come via binomial probability distributions, in case you were curious.)

Also, especially in early March, Spring Training features a wider variety of competition than any regular-season league. You may see in a few weeks that Botts has outplayed Cruz statistically, but you might not know that Cruz faced Joe Saunders twice while Botts teed off against Joey Jo-Jo Shabadoo. Back in my ESPN days, I pleaded with people to ignore spring stats, which are worthless in terms of predicting regular-season performance. Remember when Matt Kata batted .375 last spring, then had about 140 consecutive hitless at-bats when the games counted? Good times.

So, spring stats are nearly meaningless… unless you have two guys fighting for one job. Then they’re all-important.

Result after X at-bats	25	50	100	200	500
'True' .300 batter has higher average	59.5%	67.4%	76.3%	85.80%	95.9%
'True' .300 hitter and 'true' .250 hitter are tied	11.7%	7.6%	4.6%	2.30%	0.6%
'True' .250 hitter has higher average	28.8%	25.0%	19.1%	11.90%	3.5%

These are the results of binomial probability distributions. The “true� .300 hitter has a 30% chance of getting a hit in any particular at-bat. It’s interesting that even after 500 at-bats, almost a full season, the .250 hitter has about a 1-in-25 chance of equaling or bettering the .300 hitter. After about 900 at-bats, the chance falls to 1-in-100. Just goes to show how long the long run can be, statistically speaking.

Posted by Lucas at 06:43 PM

February 01, 2008

Rangers Salary Commitments

As with my salary calculations here, I'm assuming all options are picked up/exercised and ignoring deferred and incentive money.

Concept stolen from USS Mariner, whose pretty chart is here.

Posted by Lucas at 01:31 AM

November 01, 2007

Ranger Pitcher Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

Here’s a fun little game: turning every pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines for Ranger pitcher who faced at least 100 batters. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right. If none of the three qualified for the batting title, I listed a fourth who did.

Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by ranking the sums of the squares of the differences in average, on-base percentage, slugging, homer rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate between each Ranger pitcher and every hitter in baseball with at least 200 appearances. Now that I’ve put you to sleep with the previous sentence, the list:

Pitcher	Opposing AVG / OBP / SLG -- OPS	Opposing AVG+ / OBP+ / SLG+ -- OPS+	HR% -- BB% -- SO%	Most Comparable Batters ('07 Stats Only)
A. Otsuka	.218 / .269 / .277 -- .546	80 / 79 / 65 -- 44	0.0% -- 7.0% -- 18.0%	Nick Punto, Erick Aybar, Adam Kennedy
E. Gagne	.192 / .271 / .275 -- .546	71 / 80 / 65 -- 45	1.5% -- 9.1% -- 22.0%	Adam Kennedy, Mark Kotsay, Nick Punto
C. Wilson	.208 / .314 / .288 -- .602	77 / 93 / 68 -- 61	1.5% -- 12.1% -- 23.1%	Robert Fick, Nick Punto, Abraham Nunez
J. Benoit	.225 / .293 / .348 -- .641	83 / 86 / 82 -- 68	1.8% -- 8.5% -- 26.4%	Gerald Laird, Carlos Quentin, Royce Clayton, (Brandon Inge)
W. Littleton	.262 / .327 / .410 -- .737	97 / 96 / 97 -- 93	3.0% -- 8.0% -- 12.1%	Scott Rolen, Mike Sweeney, Carlos Ruiz, (Melky Cabrera)
J. Wright	.259 / .361 / .381 -- .742	96 / 106 / 90 -- 96	1.9% -- 12.9% -- 12.2%	David DeJesus, Johnny Damon, Esteban German
E. Volquez	.262 / .342 / .408 -- .750	97 / 101 / 96 -- 97	2.8% -- 10.3% -- 20.0%	Jim Edmonds, Jose Bautista, Tad Iguchi
F. Francisco	.258 / .370 / .385 -- .755	95 / 109 / 91 -- 100	1.2% -- 14.7% -- 18.9%	Scott Speizio, Willie Harris, Esteban German (Tad Iguchi)
B. McCarthy	.278 / .355 / .428 -- .783	103 / 105 / 101 -- 106	2.0% -- 10.7% -- 13.2%	Luis Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Brian Giles
K. Gabbard	.265 / .371 / .424 -- .795	98 / 109 / 100 -- 109	2.9% -- 13.2% -- 14.9%	JD Drew, Kevin Millar, Cliff Floyd
K. Millwood	.301 / .366 / .446 -- .812	111 / 108 / 105 -- 113	2.5% -- 8.6% -- 15.9%	Edward Encarnacion, Billy Butler, Randy Winn
K. Loe	.295 / .362 / .448 -- .810	109 / 107 / 106 -- 113	2.1% -- 9.3% -- 12.9%	Mike Lamb, Andre Ethier, Randy Winn
V. Padilla	.299 / .373 / .438 -- .811	110 / 110 / 103 -- 113	3.0% -- 9.3% -- 13.2%	Mike Lamb, Orlando Hudson, Randy Winn
W. Eyre	.291 / .368 / .451 -- .819	107 / 109 / 106 -- 115	2.7% -- 10.7% -- 14.0%	Mike Lamb, Orlando Hudson, Andre Ethier
A. Murray	.238 / .328 / .505 -- .833	88 / 97 / 119 -- 116	5.0% -- 12.5% -- 15.0%	Paul Konerko, Justin Morneau, Jermaine Dye
S. Feldman	.284 / .411 / .419 -- .830	105 / 121 / 99 -- 120	1.6% -- 17.1% -- 10.2%	Joe Mauer, Brian Roberts, Brian Giles
J. Rheinecker	.295 / .382 / .473 -- .855	109 / 113 / 112 -- 125	3.8% -- 11.9% -- 17.0%	Russ Martin, Manny Ramirez, Travis Buck
R. Tejeda	.290 / .390 / .499 -- .889	107 / 115 / 118 -- 133	3.9% -- 13.7% -- 15.7%	Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Frank Thomas
M. Wood	.321 / .373 / .533 -- .906	118 / 110 / 126 -- 136	4.0% -- 6.6% -- 11.0%	James Loney, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Lee

What stands out is the remarkable similarity between Vicente Padilla and Kam Loe. In 2008, one will be entrenched as Texas’s #2 starter, while the other will fight for a middle-relief role. Such is life.

Last year's list.

Posted by Lucas at 11:00 AM

October 01, 2007

Marlon Byrd, MVP

Click here for background. I CANNOT overemphasize the silliness of this statistic.

Player	Team Record When in Starting Lineup	Team Record When Out of Starting Lineup	Difference
Byrd	54-49 (.524)	21-38 (.356)	.168
Vazquez	44-41 (.518)	31-46 (.403)	.115
Botts	25-21 (.543)	50-66 (.431)	.112
Hairston	21-20 (.512)	54-67 (.446)	.066
Wilkerson	45-48 (.484)	30-39 (.435)	.049
Melhuse	8-8 (.500)	67-79 (.459)	.041
Metcalf	24-25 (.490)	51-62 (.451)	.038
Saltalamacchia	22-24 (.478)	53-63 (.457)	.021
Kata	9-10 (.474)	66-77 (.462)	.012
Laird	53-61 (.465)	22-26 (.458)	.007
Catalanotto	41-48 (.461)	34-39 (.466)	-.005
Lofton	35-44 (.443)	40-43 (.482)	-.039
Cruz	35-44 (.443)	40-43 (.482)	-.039
Blalock	24-32 (.429)	51-55 (.481)	-.053
Diaz	10-14 (.417)	65-73 (.471)	-.054
Kinsler	58-71 (.450)	17-16 (.515)	-.066
Sosa	45-58 (.437)	30-29 (.508)	-.072
Murphy	9-16 (.360)	66-71 (.482)	-.122
Teixeira	30-48 (.385)	45-39 (.536)	-.151

Posted by Lucas at 09:28 PM

September 26, 2007

Sammy Sosa, The Lucky Machine

Ron Washington on Sammy Sosa, last Wednesday:

"My recommendation is they bring him back. The guy is an RBI machine. He hasn't done anything not to bring him back.”

On a macro level, Sosa has performed pretty close to my expectations. Here’s his vital stats compared to my prediction from March 13 (prorated to the same number of appearances):

.235/.310/.430, 50 runs, 20 homers, 57 RBI -- my prediction
.252/.309/.464, 51 runs, 20 homers, 90 RBI -- actual performance

Yay, me. Except I pegged him for only 250 appearances, and… what’s with the RBI? He really is an RBI machine. This year. Next year, the team paying for the machine will experience profound disappointment, because his 90 runs plated are the result of two highly unlikely occurrences:

1) Sosa has been extraordinarily fortunate this season in terms of how often he comes to the plate with runners in scoring position:

Prorating these percentages to his 442 plate appearances in 2007, Sosa has batted in 23 more RISP situations than his career average and 17 more than his career best.

Concurrently, Sosa has also enjoyed a huge increase in bases-loaded opportunities:

One possible explanation is that Sosa spent 1993-2004 in the NL, where pitchers hit and scoring is depressed. For several reasons, this explanation doesn’t work. On a league-wide level, the difference between RISP situations in the American versus the National League is only about 0.3%. Also, in his forgettable season in Baltimore, his proportion of RISP situations fell comfortably within the bounds set by his many years in Chicago.

Furthermore, Sosa’s 35% proportion of RISP PAs to total PAs exceeds the middle-of-the-order hitters for the Yankees, MLB’s best offense:

Matsui – 32.8%
Rodriguez – 32.2%
Abreu – 29.7%

How about Boston’s Ortiz and Ramirez?

Ramirez – 32.5%
Ortiz – 29.0%

What about Texas’s best hitters (here or departed)?

Teixeira – 31.0%
Young – 28.8%

Sosa bests them all. 111 AL hitters have at least 100 appearances with a runner in scoring position. Sosa ranks third – behind Garret Anderson and Emil Brown(?!) – in the proportion of RISP situations to total appearances. Relative to the American League as a whole, the best hitters on the best teams, and even his glorious past, he’s been darned lucky.

2) Sosa has been extraordinarily adept this season at hitting with runners in scoring position. However, Sosa has displayed NO special ability to hit in the clutch during his career.

From 1993 through this season (excluding 2006), Sosa has averaged .278 overall and .283 with runners in scoring position. During those 14 seasons, Sosa’s RISP average has strayed from his overall average by more than 30 points on only three occasions: 1993, 1995, and 2007. This season, Sosa is batting .336/.390/.597 with runners in scoring position; his RISP average has exceeded his overall average by a remarkable 83 points.

Similarly, Sosa has a career .553 RISP slugging percentage and a .552 overall percentage. This season, his RISP slugging is 133 points above his overall slugging.

As a result of this prowess, Sosa has plated 66 baserunners (excluding himself on homers) in 154 RISP situations, equal to 0.43 runners per plate appearance. His average during 1993-2007 is 0.32. For the sake of argument, assume Sosa plays in 2008 and receives the same number of appearances, a typical proportion of RISP situations, and drives in runs at a typical rate. How many baserunners would he plate?

Actual 2007 RISP performance: 442 PAs x 34.8% RISP x 0.429 RBI per RISP PA
= 66 baserunners driven in

“Average” RISP performance: 442 PAs x 29.0% RISP x 0.319 RBI per RISP PA
= 41 baserunners driven in

Suddenly, Sosa loses 25 RBI in RISP situations. If Sosa had only 65 RBI this season instead of 90, would Washington and others still clamor for his return? Note also that this calculation assumes no further age-related decline, a dubious assumption to make of a soon-to-be 39-year-old.

Just to clarify, I’m not discounting his achievements this year. Runs batted in are partly a function of opportunity, and Sosa has taken advantage. For a guy with a .309 OBP, he’s been pretty useful. He can still hit lefties, and I was surprised that Texas found no takers for him during the trading window. He’s also acted professionally throughout the season and didn’t complain when relegated to the bench.

So thank him and send him on his way, because next year, if given another 450 appearances, he’s far more likely to be an out machine than an RBI machine.

Posted by Lucas at 01:27 PM

September 03, 2007

What's Ailing Jason Botts?

At the halfway point of his trial period, Jason Botts is batting .202/.296/.288. Statistically, I see three problems:

1) Botts leads the team in pitches per plate appearances with 4.4, but his patience hasn’t resulted in enough walks to mitigate his batting average. Though he’s drawn more walks recently, his overall rate of 9.3% barely surpasses the AL rate of 8.5%.

For that matter, the second and third most patient Rangers, Brad Wilkerson and Ramon Vazquez, have walk rate of 8.9% and 9.6%, respectively. The correlation between pitches per appearance and walks is strong but not absolute; Brandon Inge, Felipe Lopez, and Bill Hall are examples of “patient” players with only low-to-average walk rates.

2) Botts has simply been terrible at turning first-pitch swings into fair balls.

He’s swung at 32% of first pitches, more often than I would have guessed and easily among the upper half among Rangers with at least 100 appearances. The 1st pitch is money for most hitters -- the AL is batting .342 and slugging .545 when putting the ball in play on the 1st pitch. Botts has been no exception, batting .429 and slugging .857.

Sad to say, Botts has only seven one-pitch appearances despite swinging at 35 first pitches. His 20% contact rate is less than one-half the team average of 42%.

Player	First-Pitch Balls In Play / First Pitches Swung At
Jerry Hairston	55%
Kenny Lofton	53%
Frank Catalanotto	52%
Travis Metcalf	51%
Michael Young	50%
Gerald Laird	50%
Ian Kinsler	48%
Ramon Vazquez	46%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	43%
Average Among Group	42%
Mark Teixeira	41%
Brad Wilkerson	39%
Sammy Sosa	37%
Marlon Byrd	37%
Victor Diaz	32%
Hank Blalock	32%
Nelson Cruz	29%
Jason Botts	20%

After first pitches, the Rangers as a whole have an 0-1 count in 49% of their appearances. The AL average is 47%. For Botts, it’s 60%.

3) Following from 2), Botts lead the team in percentages of plate appearances reaching an 0-2 count, which is death to hitters. The AL is batting .183/.215/.264 after beginning 0-2.

Player	% of PAs with 0-2 Count
Jason Botts	28%
Marlon Byrd	26%
Victor Diaz	24%
Travis Metcalf	23%
Jerry Hairston	22%
Michael Young	21%
Nelson Cruz	21%
Ramon Vazquez	20%
Average Among Group	20%
Ian Kinsler	20%
Brad Wilkerson	19%
Sammy Sosa	19%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	18%
Mark Teixeira	18%
Gerald Laird	16%
Frank Catalanotto	15%
Hank Blalock	15%
Kenny Lofton	15%

Too often, Botts’s lengthy plate appearances result from laying off junk after starting in an 0-1 or 0-2 hole. That’s not a terribly productive use of his patience.

One odd source of comfort is Botts’s career. He’s started slowly at every level except during his rookie season in 2000. Unfortunately, this time he probably has only one month to heat up.

Posted by Lucas at 08:53 PM

August 23, 2007

Wheeeeeeeee!

Posted by Lucas at 12:52 AM

August 01, 2007

40-Man and Organizational Depth Chart Updated

Texas now has only three potential free agents: Jerry Hairston, Sammy Sosa and Brad Wilkerson.

Posted by Lucas at 06:37 PM

July 21, 2007

Brad Wilkerson, MVP

One of the more preposterous ideas polluting the newspapers and airwaves recently was of the team “showing it could win without Mark Teixeira.” See, here, here and here for examples. Within that statement resides the implication that Teixeira might not be so important to the team or that Texas is better off without him. After all, the Rangers went 16-12 while Teixeira nursed his sore quad but only 21-39 with him.

I don’t believe I need to tell you this, gentle reader, but just in case: For a statistic to have meaning and value, it must have uniform applicability. For example, one can calculate batting averages for all hitters, compare them, and learn something meaningful about the players.

Thus, for the difference in the Rangers’ record with and without Teixeira to have meaning, the difference must also apply logically to other players. Here’s a table of “with vs. without” records for all Ranger hitters who’ve started and missed at least 15 games:

Player	Team Record When in Starting Lineup	Team Record When Out of Starting Lineup	Difference
Wilkerson	28-29 (.491)	13-26 (.333)	.158
Vazquez	20-20 (.500)	21-35 (.375)	.125
Metcalf	11-10 (.524)	30-45 (.400)	.124
Byrd	22-23 (.489)	19-32 (.373)	.116
Hairston	17-17 (.500)	24-38 (.387)	.113
Kata	7-8 (.467)	34-47 (.420)	.047
Stewart	5-6 (.455)	36-49 (.424)	.031
Catalanotto	22-28 (.440)	19-27 (.413)	.027
Lofton	32-43 (.427)	9-12 (.429)	-.002
Diaz	10-14 (.417)	31-41 (.431)	-.014
Blalock	15-24 (.385)	26-31 (.456)	-.072
Sosa	31-46 (.403)	10-9 (.526)	-.124
Cruz	13-25 (.342)	28-30 (.483)	-.141
Kinsler	29-45 (.392)	12-10 (.545)	-.154
Laird	30-46 (.395)	11-9 (.550)	-.155
Teixeira	25-44 (.362)	16-11 (.593)	-.230

If you honestly believe in a correlation between Teixeira’s absence and the team’s improved record, you’d better be willing to accept Brad Wilkerson as the team MVP.

Yes, Teixeira has acted like he wants the next flight out to another franchise. Yes, yet another glacial start on his behalf contributed to the early-season struggles. Neither offsets the fact that he’s a very good player who helps his team to win.

Texas allowed 5.9 runs per game before Teixeira got hurt and 4.4 per game during his absence. We have causation!

Posted by Lucas at 02:35 PM

July 14, 2007

.199/.245/.393

Sammy Sosa's batting line when runners are not in scoring position. That's in 208 appearances.

Posted by Lucas at 02:59 PM

July 13, 2007

Swing, Batter!

There’s no such thing as an empty .538 slugging percentage, but Victor Diaz sure gave it a try with his .259 OBP. Diaz walked once in 104 plate appearances and holds the following honors:

-- First on team in percentage of all pitches swung at (57%, next is Blalock at 52%)

-- First in percentage of strikes swung at (82%, tied with Blalock)

-- First in percentage of first pitches swung at (40%, tied with Blalock, no one else above 32%)

-- First in percentage of strikeouts swinging (91%, next closest are Young and Hairston at 83%)

-- Last in percentage of swings making contact (68%, tied with Sosa, no one else below 74%)

-- Last in percentage of counts reaching 3-0 (2%, next are several at 3%)

-- Last in percentage of counts reaching 3-1 (1%, next is Blalock at 6%)

Posted by Lucas at 06:41 PM

July 12, 2007

Draft Update: Rounds 1-5

1. Blake Beavan (RHP, high school)

Unsigned. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explained the Beavan issue in detail yesterday. The operative phrase for 2007 and the future is “slot money.� Major League Baseball has recommended signing bonuses for several years, but more recently the league office has increased its oversight.

First, a team must “consult� with the commissioner’s office when it wants to sign a player for an above-slot bonus. The consultation involves Bud Selig doing a really terrible Vito Corleone impersonation, so teams avoid it if at all possible and are toeing the line thus far.

Second, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has shortened the negotiation period for draft picks and improved compensation for unsigned picks. The changes were effected to give teams more leverage, and so far they have. Bonuses for signed first rounders are down 10% or more from 2006.

Understandably, some players and their representatives are peeved at the new math. As noted by Grant, Beavan is asking for a bit over $1.5 million from a slot valued at $1.4 million. He’s been deemed a middle first-rounder since February, so there’s no issue of deserving top ten money.

The signing deadline is five weeks from today, and only 13 of the top 30 have signed. I won’t worry about Beavan until we’re into August.

1. Michael Main (RHP, high school)

Signed and batting .217/.269/.261 for rookie-league Arizona. He’s expected to take the mound within a couple of weeks.

1a. Julio Borbon (OF, college junior)

Unsigned. No news, no rumors, no nothing. Borbon can return to Tennessee for his senior year, but everything I’ve read about him suggests he’s ready to turn pro. He’s a Scott Boras client.

1a. Neil Ramirez (RHP, high school)

Unsigned. Ramirez entered the season considered a potential first rounder and was ranked 25th on Baseball America’s prospect list. A minor back injury and inconsistent performance dropped him to 44th on draft day. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus claimed Ramirez is asking for above-slot money. I don’t know what Ramirez is seeking, but the difference between his position and the bottom of the first round is $300,000-$400,000. He’s committed to Georgia Tech.

1a. Tommy Hunter (RHP, college sophomore)

Unsigned. According to the Indianapolis Star, Hunter has avoided the college summer league but has been throwing to stay in shape. On the record, he is utterly noncommittal about his destination. "It's a waiting process to see when everything gets done but I'm pretty sure it will work out. I'm waiting to see what everybody says, take all the advice in that I can and, after that, I'm going to make a decision."

Alabama coach Jim Wells recently retired, but Hunter says that won’t impact his decision.

UPDATE: Wells changed his mind and returned to Alabama.

2. Matt West (SS/3B, high school)

Signed and batting .345/.457/.483 in eight games for Arizona.

3. Evan Reed (RHP, college junior)

Signed last week and appearing on Spokane’s roster as of today.

4. Garrett Nash (SS, high school)

Unsigned. According to the Portland (OR) Tribune, Nash will enroll at Oregon State. Nash: “I just told [Texas], ‘I’m not going to sign. I’m going to go to school.’ After talking to my dad and thinking about what’s best for my future, I decided going to Oregon State would be the best thing for me. I’ll get better coaching than I would in Rookie League ball, and it’s a great program, something I want to be a part of. I want to start my college education and develop as a player.�

5. John Gast (LHP, high school)

Unsigned. Baseball America considered Gast no worse than a third rounder until he underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Florida State coach Mike Martin, who already has lost Michael Main to Texas, expects Gast to enter college. “I would be very surprised if he signs [with Texas]. With the potential he has, he would be leaving millions of dollars on the table.� Slot money is about $135,000, compared to $250,000-$300,000 for a third rounder.

Posted by Lucas at 08:45 AM

July 02, 2007

Is Ty Wigginton an All-Star?

The Startlegram’s Gil LeBreton argued for Sammy Sosa’s inclusion in the All-Star game and lobbed a grenade at stat-oriented analysis in the process:

If the fans are voting, why not give them some names worth arguing over? Sheffield should have been on the final list, as well as the Rangers' Sammy Sosa.

That's right, Sammy Sosa.

Baseball's history of All-Star Game box scores is lined with the names of superstars who passed through in the twilight of their careers. Sosa's batting average, granted, is only .255, but he has 14 home runs and 63 runs batted in, seventh-most in major league baseball.

The geeks that are trying to measure this season's Sosa by Win Shares, VORP and Runs Created Per 27 need to get a life.

We're trying to fill an All-Star roster, not a Bill James spreadsheet.

What harm would it have done to let baseball fans decide whether Sosa or Sheffield deserved to be the AL final All-Star?

That was the gravest injustice. I'm willing to excuse the fans' choice of Ivan Rodriguez as American League catcher, when a better case easily could be made for the Yankees' Jorge Posada or the Indians' Victor Martinez. The fans understandably want to see Pudge.

Like LeBreton, I have no issue with the fans voting for favorites in decline. Ivan Rodriguez will appear this year, and players like Reggie Jackson and Cal Ripken played in the Midsummer Classic at the tail of their careers. However, players like Pudge and Ripken were voted in. LeBreton argued that Sosa should be included on the supplemental ballot so that the fans can have their say, but they already have. Sosa ranked thirteenth among outfielders in the popular vote. Thirteenth, between Coco Crisp and Craig Monroe. LeBreton appears to accept the voters’ nostalgia-infused desire for Pudge but not their rejection of Sosa.

Except for one player, managers and the players themselves chose the rest of the roster. LeBreton doesn’t address their selections, but they clearly disagree with his yearning for the “superstar in twilight.” Sosa didn’t rank among the top six outfielders in the player voting. Manager Jim Leyland, a 62-year-old graduate of the old school, chose Michael Young over Sosa. Leyland had to insure that each team was represented, but otherwise, he and the players chose purely on merit.

I don’t know why the supplemental vote includes only pitchers. It didn’t in previous years. LeBreton has a point in this regard. I wouldn’t have minded Sosa’s name on the ballot.

Alas, he throws himself under the bus with his derision of “geeks” needing a life. The AL manager, the league’s players and millions of fans have deemed Sammy Sosa unworthy of a spot on the All-Star team. Yet, for some reason, the relative handful of fans who know about Win Shares deserves his special derision. Did a cabal of stat geeks keep Sosa off the supplemental ballot? Can LeBreton speak to the pros and cons of any of the statistics mentioned, or does he feel his blanket condemnation is sufficient?

Everyone, EVERYONE, who has spent his or her free time learning about advanced baseball metrics is by definition a wildly passionate baseball fan. They attend games, purchase caps and shirts, shell out cash for cable and online video, write blogs (for free!), and even buy newspapers. What in the world did they ever do to poor Gil LeBreton?

Nevertheless, let’s take LeBreton’s criticism on its face and assume Sosa is reasonably worthy of All-Star status. (I do agree that the idea is worth exploration.) I hypothesize that if Sosa is worthy, other players with similar statistics are also worthy. Seems reasonable, yes?

So: who is most similar to Sosa using ordinary stats found at any major website? Here are the general criteria that fit Sosa’s season to date:

• Low batting average and OBP
• Pretty good slugging percentage
• Very high in RBI, low-to-average in runs
• Respectable number of doubles
• Above average in homers
• No better than an average walk rate, preferably worse
• Few steals

I derived the list mathematically, but you could probably imitate it via the eyeball method.

Player	Team	AVG / OBP / SLG	R	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SB
S. Sosa	TEX	.255/.308/.476	34	17	14	63	21	1
T. Wigginton	TAM	.273/.318/.455	36	17	13	41	21	1
E. Chavez	OAK	.246/.306/.445	35	20	12	42	28	4
J. Bay	PIT	.262/.338/.446	41	16	12	50	34	1
A. Gonzalez	CIN	.253/.301/.456	38	17	13	39	14	0
C. Delgado	NYM	.232/.296/.424	39	19	13	45	25	2
X. Nady	PIT	.278/.330/.480	36	12	13	46	15	2
R. Zimmerman	WAS	.245/.294/.420	42	18	12	42	22	3
K. Greene	SDG	.241/.274/.469	45	21	13	45	14	1
G. Atkins	COL	.247/.323/.424	37	19	11	45	34	3

Sosa actually compares favorably to guys like Jason Bay, Eric Chavez, Carlos Delgado, and Ryan Zimmerman. Unfortunately, each is having a lousy year by his previous standards. Ty Wigginton and Xavier Nady are probably the most apt comparisons to the present-day Sosa. Not bad players, but nobody’s idea of an All-Star.

What sticks out is the lower RBI totals for each of Sosa’s comparables. As you know, Sosa has thrived with runners on base, resulting in a very high number of runners plated despite a mediocre batting line. There’s no one in baseball quite like him.

And that is the essence of his All-Star case. That and nostalgia, which I debunked previously. Does Sosa deserve credit for his 63 RBI? Unquestionably. He ranks among the most fortunate in RBI opportunities and among the best at taking advantage of them. That’s a terrific combination, and it compensates greatly for his lame on-base percentage. (His ability to continue hitting in the clutch is a separate issue.)

But again, that’s the entirety of his case. He doesn’t hit for average, or walk much, or run, or play defense often or well. He doesn’t even play for a good team.

So: Ty Wigginton, anyone?

Posted by Lucas at 11:37 PM

June 15, 2007

Worse Than You Think

Although Texas can “catch” the Tigers by reducing its starters’ ERA by only 0.11, doing so would not equal them in terms of quality. Many people think of the period from the mid 1900s to the present as similar in terms of offense-heavy games, but in fact run scoring in 2007 has declined by about one-half run per team per game compared to 1996. Thus, while the ’07 Rangers and ’96 Tigers share similar rotation ERAs, Texas has performed considerably worse relative to the park-adjusted league average:

Stat	Detroit, 1996	Texas, 2007
Starters' ERA	6.64	6.75
AL Starters' ERA	5.17	4.53
Park Factor	1.01	1.05
Park-Adjusted ERA for Starters	5.22	4.76
Difference in ERA between Team and League	1.42	1.99
Pct. Diff. in ERA between Team and League	27% higher	42% higher

Texas must shave its starters’ ERA down to 6.05 to achieve equivalency to those wonderful Tigers.

Tangentially, Detroit used sixteen starters in 1996; the top five consisted of Felipe Lira, Omar Olivares, Greg Gohr, Justin Thompson, and Brian Williams. A.J. Sagar, C.J. Nitkowski, Scott Aldred and Todd Van Poppel also made between 8-9 starts each. The Tigers also featured a terrible bullpen that season, meaning that the rotation probably had a higher percentage of bequeathed runners reach home plate than Texas.

So, review those less-than-illustrious names from Detroit’s rotation, understand that the bullpen probably contributed to the rotation’s woes, and realize that Texas’s rotation is demonstrably and sickeningly worse.

Enjoy your weekend.

Posted by Lucas at 07:17 PM

June 04, 2007

125

Consecutive MLB plate appearances without an unintentional walk for Victor Diaz. He last walked on September 10, 2005.

Posted by Lucas at 12:43 AM

June 01, 2007

Platoon

With Texas down 7-5 in the 8th, two on, one out, and Seattle lefty George Sherrill in to face lefty Ramon Vasquez, manager Ron Washington opted to bring in Matt Kata, a switch hitter. Announcer Josh Lewin noted that Washington was “playing the percentages.�

Kata is a career .245/.304/.387 hitter. Not to pick on Lewin, but there is NO situation involving Matt Kata that can be deemed “playing the percentages.�

That said, it’s not so much what Kata doesn’t do well (hit, regardless of the pitcher’s arm) as what Sherrill does (kill lefties). Sherrill holds lefties to a miniscule line of .161/.212/.281 and struggles against righties, at least in terms of OBP: .282/.406/.365. Thus, Washington’s decision to leave left-handed Kenny Lofton in to face him is, ah, puzzling.

Again, Sherrill eats lefties alive, Lofton doesn’t even start against southpaws and is batting .150 against them this season (plus .214 in ’06), and Texas has two righties on the bench in the form of Nelson Cruz and Victor Diaz. Neither is hitting well against lefties, but at least they eliminate Sherrill’s gigantic platoon advantage. Cruz can play center, and even having Diaz out there for a couple of innings wouldn’t be the end of the world. Why not use one of them?

Someday, when Texas has a good team, decisions like this will really matter.

Posted by Lucas at 12:06 AM

May 21, 2007

Millwood’s Contract

Kevin Millwood did not sign a five-year, $60 million contract with Texas, though it wasn’t reported as such. He signed a four-year $48 million contract with a fifth year at $12 million that vests upon fulfillment of any of three innings-pitched scenarios:

• 540 innings during 2007-2009,
• 360 innings during 2008-2009, or
• 180 innings during 2009.

With Millwood hitting the disabled list twice in rapid succession, these scenarios have come into play. Per MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, Millwood probably won’t be ready to pitch on May 29th when Texas next needs a fifth starter. For the sake of discussion, assume he returns June 5th to kick off the homestand against Detroit and is able to pitch the equivalent of every fifth game thereafter at his ’06 rate of 6.1 innings per start.

Those assumptions give him 21 more starts and 133 innings for a season total of 168.1. Thus, he’ll need 371.2 innings in 2008-2009 to achieve the goal in the first scenario. Since the second scenario requires only 360 innings, the first scenario is effectively meaningless at this point. Millwood’s hamstring has cost him the ability to stockpile innings during 2007 to mitigate inning-sapping injuries in ’08-’09.

Texas has an option to pick up the fifth year even if Millwood doesn’t attain any of those goals. Incidentally, with Millwood’s $15 million signing bonus deferred until 2011-2015, his contract is worth about $44.8 million in present-value dollars (discounted at 8%) including the fifth year.

Posted by Lucas at 08:42 AM

May 04, 2007

.299

Texas is scoring 4.4 runs per game despite an on-base percentage of .299. No team with a .299 OBP has ever exceeded four runs per game over a full season. The 1963 Cleveland Indians hold the “record” with 3.92 R/G on a line of .239/.299/.381. Here’s the five DH-era teams who’ve finished with a sub-.300 OBP:

Year	Team	Runs / Game	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS
1992	California	3.57	.243	.298	.338	160	101
1990	New York	3.72	.241	.296	.366	119	45
1981	Toronto	3.10	.226	.284	.330	66	57
1981	Minnesota	3.44	.240	.293	.338	34	27
1975	Detroit	3.58	.249	.299	.366	63	57

As you might expect, most of these teams ran into a bunch of extra outs.

Texas has been very fortunate to score as many runs as they have. The obverse of the Rangers is the Royals, who are batting .297/.371/.470 to lead off an inning but only .242/.321/.371 in RISP situations. They’re scoring 3.9 runs per game, significantly worse than Texas.

The Rangers have zero probability of maintaining a sub-.300 OBP for the whole season. It’s just not going to happen. However, with a more even distribution of hits, it’s possible for their dull 4.4 run average to persist even as their OBP increases. If that happens, Texas will lose 90 games even if its pitching reverts to 2006 form.

Posted by Lucas at 01:00 PM

May 03, 2007

Ron Is Right

Much of what I write involves the following process:

1. Read someone’s adamantly stated opinion.
2. Wonder: “Is that true?�
3. Discover: “Nope!�
4. Commence dissent.

So I’m pleased to report that Ron Washington is exactly right. Quotations from Chairman Ron at the Startlegram blog:

Patience is that you have to have enough knowledge of what you’re doing that if you’re going to swing at the first pitch, you can’t be topping it, you can’t be rolling it, you can't be popping it up. You’ve got to turn somebody over. You don't ground a first pitch to the third baseman. You don’t pop a first pitch to the second baseman. You don't chop a first pitch back to the pitcher. If you’re going to swing at a first pitch, you’ve got to center it. If you’re going to make an out, you’ve got to make a loud out. "If you go back and review, we’re making outs on first pitches. If your swing is not there to center the ball, then I don't think you should be swinging at that first pitch.

Texas is putting the ball in play on the first pitch in 10.5% of its plate appearances, exactly the same percentage as the American league. However, the Rangers are batting only .280/.287/.480 in first-pitch results.

“Only?� Isn’t a team-wide .280 average and .480 slugging percentage good?

Not on first pitches. The AL has a line of .323/.331/.527. Last year, Texas batted .349 and slugged .565 on first pitches. Hitters don’t often have full discretion to swing only at “perfect� strikes while letting marginal ones pass by. The first pitch is one such situation, so batting lines are highly inflated on first-pitch results.

Hitting .280 on first pitches is pretty lame.

Posted by Lucas at 02:38 PM

May 01, 2007

Brandon McCarthy, Part 2: How Much Of The “Suck� Is Bad Luck?

The pitch data presented in the previous entry doesn’t tell much of the story behind McCarthy’s dreadfulness this season. This table does:

Year	HR%	BB%	SO%	BABIP	ERA	LERA
2005-2006	4.8%	7%	19%	0.259	4.41	4.72
2007	2.9%	10%	12%	0.382	9.90	6.69

Despite pretty similar ball-strike distributions, McCarthy has walked more and struck out far fewer batters than during 2005-2006. The real killer is the gigantic increase in average on balls in play. He was a bit lucky in Chicago (where typical BABIP is about .290) and has been hugely unlucky in Texas, where a BABIP of about .305-.310 is the norm. If not for some improvement in home runs allowed, his ERA might be near 12.00.

So, the question is, how much of his meltdown is due to him alone, and how much is simply bad luck? It’s impossible to say for sure, but the last column of the table provides a little bit of an answer. LERA stands for Latent ERA, a stat I’ve used in the past but didn’t name until now. (If there’s anything baseball needs, it’s another obscure statistical acronym.) It’s a combination of Bill James’s Component ERA (except adding actual data for doubles and triples allowed instead of estimates) and DIPS (except adjusting to the BABIP typical for the team, not the league). Basically, I’m trying to estimate what the pitcher’s ERA might be assuming a typical distribution of baserunners and a typical BABIP for his team.

McCarthy appeared to be a bit lucky in Chicago, as evidenced by the slight increase in his LERA compared to his actual ERA. In Texas, his ERA “ought” to be 6.69 rather than 9.90. Depending on how the numbers are examined, perhaps 60-65%% of the increase in ERA is bad luck, and 35%-40% is purely his own fault.

This is ultimately an exercise in numerical tomfoolery, and goodness knows I’m not suggesting that McCarthy’s pitching is acceptable. However, if his ERA were actually 6.69 instead of 9.90, people might only be saying “he needs to get his butt in gear” instead of “he needs to be euthanized.”

Posted by Lucas at 06:43 PM

Brandon McCarthy, Part 1: Pitch Data Isn't Everything

Funny, but from looking purely at pitch data, you’d never guess that Brandon McCarthy’s ERA had skyrocketed from 4.41 in 2005-2006 to 9.90 this season.

Pitches	05-'06	'07
Strikes	64%	63%
-- Strikes looking	26%	28%
-- Strikes swinging	14%	10%
-- Strikes fouled	32%	31%
-- Strikes hit into play	28%	32%
1st-pitch strikes	56%	63%
3-0 counts	6%	5%
0-2 counts	18%	16%

Based on the number of pitches he’s thrown, the 4% increase in strikes hit into play equals 10 extra balls in play. That’s not an insignificant amount over the course of 20 innings, but certainly not enough to account for a doubling in ERA.

Posted by Lucas at 06:18 PM

April 27, 2007

Scoring From Third

The DMN’s Evan Grant wrote at length about the Rangers’ ghastly performance with runners on third in Thursday’s 9-4 loss to Cleveland. He noted their inefficiency at getting runners home from third with less than two outs and Texas’s attempts to wean themselves off the homer heavy “all or nothing” approach. Per manager Ron Washington, "These guys have been so used to banging that it's hard for them to take that shorter stroke. It's not going to be easy to get it out of their system. But we will."

I watched that game, and, this being a family blog and all, I can’t tell you what I was yelling at the tv. What I can tell you is that hitting with runners on third is not the biggest problem afflicting the Rangers.

I don’t have the stats with less than two outs, but I’ve compared the Rangers to the American League in all man-on-third situations to see how effective they are at bringing runners home. The second and third columns in the table below are Others Batted In per Plate Apperance. Thus, if the hitter homers, his run doesn’t count. I’ve also deducted intentional walks from the plate appearances for the purpose of this exercise. Multiplying the difference in Texas’s and the AL’s OBI/PA by Texas’s number of appearances in each situation results in the Rangers’ run deficit or surplus relative to the league as a whole.

Base Situation (1/2/3)	Texas OBI/PA	AL OBI/PA	Difference	Texas PAs	Texas Run Deficit
- - 3	26%	30%	-4%	27	(1.2)
1 - 3	58%	49%	9%	31	2.9
- 2 3	27%	50%	-23%	11	(2.5)
1 2 3	68%	74%	-6%	22	(1.3)

TOTAL RUN DEFICIT: -2.1

Texas’s inability to hit with runners on third has cost the team about 0.1 runs per game. I’m not suggesting that 0.1 runs is nothing. Over the course of a season, that extra 0.1 is worth almost two wins. However, Texas’s hitting in these situations is not close to being a catastrophe.

Posted by Lucas at 08:31 PM

April 23, 2007

Notes On Laird

Finally the unquestioned #1 catcher in his fifth season, Gerald Laird has posted a hideous line of .104/.185/.146 in 15 games. After all this time, Laird still has only 574 MLB plate appearances, so trendspotting is a risky endeavor, but what the heck:

1. Does Laird have a career history of poor performance as the regular catcher?

To test this theory, I compared games in which he started on the previous day (that’s day, not just the previous game) to those in which he had at least one day of rest. I eliminated games in which he appeared as a late-inning sub or pinch hitter.

I expected to see a letdown as an everyday player, but it doesn’t exist:

Laird after playing the previous day:
.253/.314/.333 in 194 plate appearances

Laird after at least one day of rest:
.241/.287/.391 in 371 appearances

Laird has hit for more power with rest but also for a slightly lower average and with a higher strikeout rate (23% vs 17%).

2. Is Laird seeing/swinging at pitches differently this season?

Yes. Laird’s awful start has coincided with increased patience. From 2003-2006, he averaged 3.7 pitches per appearance. In 2007, he’s improved to 4.2.

Through 2006, 28% of the strikes delivered to Laird were of the looking variety. In 2007, it’s increased to 34%. That extra 6% equates to 14 additional watched strikes this season in 54 appearances.

Laird swung at 32% of first pitches during his first four seasons. That number has decreased to 20% in 2007.

The operative word is “coincided.� I’m not about to suggest Laird’s scuffling is a function of increased patience. That said, the trend is worth watching. And again, Laird doesn’t have a lengthy history, so don’t take this analysis as holy writ.

3. Does Laird have more serious problems than how often he rests or whether he swings at the first pitch?

He sure does. One: Laird already had a poor track record against righties (.224/.282/.345 through ‘06) and has done nothing to improve it. Two: Laird had always pounded lefties (.355/.384/.520) but is 0-11 against them this season.

Posted by Lucas at 06:09 PM

April 18, 2007

Wilkerson, Again

After both recent posts in which I spoke ill of Brad Wilkerson, he immediately followed with a terrific game.

Therefore, tomorrow I will launch a 149-part series entitled, "Brad Wilkerson, Dog Kicker."

Posted by Lucas at 01:31 AM

April 16, 2007

More On Wilkerson

As I mentioned last week, Brad Wilkerson’s problem in 2006 wasn’t staring at strike three, it was inability to make contact throughout the count. Pitch data available from BaseballReference.com confirms this:

Year	2001-2005	2006
Plate Appearances	2,690	365
Pitches / Appearances	4.28	4.19
Strikes as % of pitches	59%	62%
-- % Looking	34%	29%
-- % Swinging and missed	16%	23%
-- % Swinging and fouled	26%	26%
-- % Swinging and hit into play	24%	22%
% of strikes swung at	66%	71%
% of all pitches swung at	39%	44%
% of pitches made contact with when swinging	75%	67%
% of appearances swinging at first pitch	16%	19%

From 2001-2005, 59% of the pitches thrown to Wilkerson were strikes, and he swung and missed 16% of those strikes. In 2006, the strike percentage increased to 62%, and the percentage of those he whiffed rocketed to 23%. Wilkerson saw 1,529 pitches in his abbreviated 2006 season, meaning that he swung and missed an additional 97 pitches compared to previous years. He only played in 95 games, so that’s an extra missed pitch every game.

In 2006, Wilkerson also swung at all pitches more frequently (44% vs. 39% during 2001-2005) but made contact less often (67% vs. 75%). As noted in last week’s post, Wilkerson put the first pitch into play less often than any of 37 batters I surveyed. Yet he actually swung at the first pitch 3% more frequently than during 2001-2005.

Is there hope? Actually, yes. Wilkerson’s line of .222/.313/.370 isn’t much different than what he offered in 2006, but his strike/contact statistics have generally reverted to earlier years:

Year	2001-2005	2007
Plate Appearances	2,690	32
Pitches / Appearances	4.28	4.50
Strikes as % of pitches	59%	57%
-- % Looking	34%	35%
-- % Swinging and missed	16%	17%
-- % Swinging and fouled	26%	24%
-- % Swinging and hit into play	24%	23%
% of strikes swung at	66%	65%
% of all pitches swung at	39%	37%
% of pitches made contact with when swinging	75%	74%
% of appearances swinging at first pitch	16%	19%

Posted by Lucas at 06:57 PM

April 10, 2007

Is Wilkerson Toast?

Brad Wilkerson’s game-ending at-bat against Jon Papelbon Sunday night was about as sad a display as you’ll ever see. Certainly, Papelbon has a habit of making hitters look stupid, but Wilkerson wouldn’t have made contact even if he’d been allowed ten strikes. Honestly, he looks like a pitcher sometimes.

It’s nothing new. Wilkerson struggled with a sore shoulder immediately upon joining the Rangers, and his tenure as leadoff hitter ended after just eight games. The salt in the wound was Alfonso Soriano’s rejuvenation as a Senator after two lackluster years in Texas. It doesn’t help that Soriano looks like an athlete and Wilkerson looks… well, doughy. Not that Wilkerson isn’t athletic. I’m just sayin’.

Presumably, in 2007 Wilkerson’s renewed health would pay dividends. Alas, the early returns are not promising. Wilkerson is known for taking the count deep, resulting in plenty of walks and strikeouts. Before joining Texas, his strikeouts weren’t a serious problem. Despite ranking among the top five in strikeouts in the NL from 2002-2005, Wilkerson consistently reached based at about a .370 rate and supplied plenty of doubles and a decent number of home runs. As a Ranger, his OBP hovers around .300 and he strikes out more than ever.

Using 2006 stats, I reviewed his and others’ performances in four categories:

1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch.

2. Percentage of PAs with a two-strike count.

3. Percentage of PAs with an 0-2 count.

4. Percentage of PAs in which the batter struck out without ever taking ball one.

The first two stats don’t indicate much on their own. Although hitters tend to do very well when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, a high percentage by itself does not indicate does not indicate a good hitter. Recognizing and taking advantage of a fat first pitch is the hallmark of a great hitter, but swinging at too many first pitches indicates lack of discretion. Likewise, having a high number of two-strike counts isn’t bad in and of itself.

Conversely, too many 0-2 counts are cause for concern. Hitters are at a huge disadvantage on an 0-2 count. Even very patient hitters who walk often tend to avoid them. Finally, striking out without ever seeing a ball outside the zone is an obvious failure.

For purposes of comparing hitters to Wilkerson, I couldn’t find a database of breakdowns of batter performance by ball-strike count, so I built an abbreviated one using four cohorts:

BB Kings (clever, no?): Ten batting-title qualifiers with the best walk rates in 2006. Wilkerson has walked over 13% of his career plate appearances, an excellent rate.

The group includes David Ortiz, Jason Giambi, Travis Hafner, Manny Ramirez, Nick Johnson, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell.

K Kings: Ten batters with the highest strikeouts ratios in 2006. Wilkerson would have joined this group had he achieved enough appearances.

This group consists of Thome, Dunn and Burrell (also BB Kings), Curtis Granderson, Richie Sexson, Jhonny Peralta, Bill Hall, Ryan Howard, Andy LaRoche, and Geoff Jenkins.

Hackers: Ten batters with the worst walk-to-strikeout ratios in 2006. Wilkerson is definitely not a hacker, at least as I’ve defined the term here. I’m attempting to pick a group of hitters ostensibly inferior to Wilkerson to see how he measures up.

The Hackers are Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Francoeur, Preston Wilson, Shea Hillenbrand, Craig Monroe, Pedro Feliz, Jacque Jones, Ivan Rodriguez, AJ Pierzynski, and Clint Barmes. (Three Tigers in this group.)

Rangers: The top eight Rangers in plate appearances in 2006. All the other group consist of outliers; the Rangers should represent a broader mix of talents.

The Rangers are Barajas. Teixeira, Kinsler, Young, Blalock, DeRosa, Matthews and Mench.

With overlap, the comparison groups consist of 35 players. For each stat, I’ll list Wilkerson, the players with the highest and lowest percentages, and the averages of each cohort. Again, these are 2006 statistics.

1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch

Category	1st-pitch action
J Francoeur	21%
Average of Hackers	15%
Average of Rangers	12%
Average of K Kings	10%
Average of BB Kings	9%
B Abreu	5.2%
B Wilkerson	4.9%

2. Percentage of plate appearances with two strikes

Player	2-Strike Counts
P Feliz	39%
Average of Hackers	44%
Average of Rangers	45%
Average of BB Kings	51%
Average of K Kings	53%
B Hall	58%
B Wilkerson	59%

3. Percentage of plate appearances with an 0-2 count

Category	0-2 Counts
P Feliz	7%
Average of BB Kings	15%
Average of Rangers	17%
Average of Hackers	17%
Average of K Kings	18%
B Hall	21%
Wilkerson	25%

4. Percentage of plate appearances in which the batter struck out and never took a pitch for a ball.

Category	Ball-free strikeouts
B Abreu	1.5%
Average of BB Kings	2.5%
Average of Rangers	3.1%
Average of K Kings	4.1%
Average of Hackers	4.2%
R Cedeno	6.5%
B Wilkerson	6.6%

Wilkerson ranks last in every category. Compared to 35 other hitters, he was least likely to hit the first pitch into play, most likely to have a two-strike count, most likely to have an 0-2 count, and most likely to strike out without seeing ball one. As I mentioned previously, ranking last in the first two categories isn't problematic by itself. Bobby Abreu almost never puts the ball in play on the first pitch, and he's a stud.

No, the problem is the combination of all four stats. Wilkerson starts in a hole far too often without recovering. That’s not a result of too much patience. It’s inability to make contact. No hitter can survive without making good contact a reasonable percentage of the time, and Wilkerson has failed in that regard. That Wilkerson lapped the field in 0-2 counts is worst of all, because a batter with an 0-2 count is a dead man walking.

But that’s 2006, right? Old news. What about this year and Wilkerson’s healthy shoulder?

As I said, the early returns are not promising:

Brad Wilkerson	2006	2007
First-pitch action (% of PAs)	4.9%	5.0%
2-Strike Counts	59%	65%
0-2 Counts	25%	30%
Ball-free strikeouts	6.6%	15.0%

Wilkerson has declined in every category. I know it’s early, but he looks lost. I’ve previously predicted that the Rangers would (belatedly) replace Sammy Sosa’s attenuated bat by mid-May or June. At this rate, Wilkerson might not outlast Sosa.

Posted by Lucas at 05:43 PM

April 02, 2007

Predictions

AL West:
Los Angeles 87-75
Oakland 84-78
Texas 81-81
Seattle 77-85

That said, I see much more upside than downside. This team can win the division.

AL Central: Cleveland. While I was in Vegas last month, I put $20 on Texas (the university) to cover the spread against Kansas. They did, so I put $20 on Cleveland at 12-1 to win the pennant. Go Tribe!

AL East: New York.

AL Wild Card: Boston

NL West: San Diego

NL Central: Umm… I guess someone has to win. Chicago. Maybe St. Louis.

NL East: Philadelphia.

NL Wild Card: Mets. If not, the Dodgers. The NL is ridiculously tight this year. I’m not especially fond of any of these picks.

Postseason: New York over LA. Cleveland over Boston. New York over Cleveland. (There goes my bet.) -- San Diego over New York. Philadelphia over Chicago. San Diego over Philly. – Yankees win the Series.

Other predictions: Washington will not lose 100 games. I’m going to go against the popular sleeper and say Milwaukee doesn’t win 81 games. Detroit will drop to 83-85 wins. Tampa Bay will not avoid another 90-loss season. I don’t predict anyone to win 100 games, but if anyone does, it’ll be the Yankees.

Let’s find out how stupid I am in seven months.

Posted by Lucas at 08:56 PM

March 25, 2007

Taking The Fifth, Revisited

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan believes the competition for fifth starter is over, and Jamey Wright has prevailed. I can’t say I had any reaction at all when I heard the news in the midst of a fantasy draft Saturday night. He’d might as well have announced, “Drill a pilot hole before installing an anchor in sheetrock.”

I can’t find the link now, but I recall Wright saying he’d found a groove last season in San Francisco until Mike Matheny was injured. The stats bear him out:

Period	ERA	BABIP	HR%	BB%	SO%
Career	5.14	.307	2.5%	11.4%	10.9%
2006 with Matheny catching	4.56	.301	2.2%	6.2%	12.0%
2006 with others catching	5.45	.308	2.4%	11.3%	10.9%

His success with Matheny was no BABIP-induced fluke, and his bullpen didn’t have to bail him out (one of his two bequeathed runners scored). Cutting his walk rate to a terrific 2.4 per nine innings dropped his ERA to within spitting distance of league-average. Alas, with either Todd Greene or Eliezer Alfonzo as his receiver, his mechanics suffered and he offered the usual.

How much credit does Matheny actually deserve for Wright’s modicum of success? That slides into the grey areas of Matheny’s defensive reputation and how their personalities clicked. But if Wright says so, it’s at least partially true. However, it’s reasonably certain that Mike Matheny will not be catching Jamey Wright this season.

I realize no one is asking Wright to pitch 162 innings with a 4.50 ERA. (Actually, Jon Daniels did say, “[Wright] is capable of giving us 160-180 innings,” but he has to say stuff like that occasionally.) Also, the fifth-starter decision isn’t made in a vacuum; it includes injuries, depth problems at AAA, younger candidates with minor-league options, and Wright’s contractual ability to bail if he’s not on the 25-man roster. However, from all I’ve read, coaches and management seem pleased with him, irrespective of the extraneous issues factoring into his ascendance. They believe they can keep his mechanics in order.

Herein lies the problem. We have a pitcher:

• with a career ERA+ of 93 in over 1,400 innings
• who’s pitched exactly one season of at least 162 innings and league-average ERA in his career (six years ago)
• who’s allowed opponents an OBP of .369 outside of Coors Field
• who’s permitted 5.2 BB+HBP per nine innings
• who’s been released fives times during the season or Spring Training
• and who’s been cut rather than granted arbitration five other times.

We also have an organization that, during the past nine years:

• has posted a better-than-league-average ERA only twice,
• and has developed exactly one homegrown pitcher who’s thrown at least 162 league-average innings (Doug Davis, 2001).

And Texas is going to fix Jamey Wright? Pin a medal on Mark Connor if that happens.

Posted by Lucas at 01:14 PM

March 18, 2007

The Real Roster Crunch

The battle for fifth starter has three contestants: Jamey Wright, Bruce Chen, and Kameron Loe. A related issue: What is Texas going to do with all the starting pitchers who don’t make the Opening Day roster? Assuming Wright wins out, I see the following potential starters in Oklahoma:

Edinson Volquez
Josh Rupe
John Koronka
John Rheinecker
A.J. Murray
Thomas Diamond
Kameron Loe
Bruce Chen
Francisco Cruceta
Mike Wood
(And maybe others I’ve forgotten)

The situation may partially resolve itself. Rheinecker might start the season on the Disabled List, Cruceta is out of options and can declare free agency once demoted, Texas may use Wood in relief, Texas could keep Diamond in AA for a few weeks, Chen might also leave (if his contract allows it – I’m not sure), etc.

Texas already has an excess of relievers, so using putative starters in relief roles only exacerbates the problem. Management looks to have a more difficult task deciding the AAA roster than Texas’s.

Posted by Lucas at 11:32 PM

March 17, 2007

Taking The Fifth

Joey Matschulat, the new guy over at Baseball Time in Arlington, describes Spring Training hero Jamey Wright as this year’s Pedro Astacio and includes some embarrassing quotes from Peter Gammons and Buck Showalter back in the day. Now, the nature of the internets is such that you can make anyone look foolish if you dig through enough old columns and quotes (me included, to be sure). But that doesn’t make it any less funny.

More to the point, Matschulat’s comparison is apt. We’re talking about someone who hasn’t pitched more than 100 league-average innings since 2000. Yes, his career ERA+ is better than Adam Eaton’s (also funny), but Sweet Fancy Moses, those peripherals! 4.4 walks per nine innings but only 4.8 strikeouts. As Colorado’s Aaron Cook has shown, a pitcher can succeed in a hitter’s park with both a low K rate and a high hit rate if he also cuts down on the walks and keeps the ball out of the cheap seats. Wright does neither.

Wright claims “I have a new delivery. I feel confident, I feel great. I feel like I can dominate,� and I’m not going to sit here in Austin and tell him he’s wrong. But when T.R. Sullivan says “Wright's growing fifth-starter candidacy is one of the big stories of camp,� that's when I reach for my tequila. And not the good stuff, either.

Posted by Lucas at 01:21 PM

March 15, 2007

Defenestration

Related to the “Sammy!� post of a few days ago, some thought on 40-man roster issues:

First, in a chat on Wednesday, DMN’s Evan Grant mentioned that the Rangers’ backup catcher isn’t in camp yet. That may be, but the names he threw out -- former Rangers Todd Greene and Sandy Alomar Jr. – do not impress. I’m not sure if Grant knew that Greene dislocated his shoulder last month and won’t play for at least another ten days or so. And Alomar… Texas has three potential backups already on the 40-man roster and none is better than 40-year-old Alomar? Pretty sad, if true.

Second, upon review of the present 40, the Rangers could easily make room for both Sosa and a middle infielder without outrighting one of their eight outfielders. The first player would be Alexi Ogando, who, like Omar Beltre, can’t enter the country because of a protracted visa problem. Sticking him on the restricted list frees one spot. One possibility for the second is pitcher Francisco Cruceta, who is out of options and appears to have no hope of making the final cut. Another is catcher Guillermo Quiroz, likewise out of options.

After those, the choices become less palatable: outfielder Victor Diaz and perhaps currently injured pitcher John Rheinecker. Trading Rick Bauer or Ron Mahay for a player not on the 40 would also create space.

Posted by Lucas at 10:09 AM

March 11, 2007

Sammy!

I (and others) have been predicting that Sammy Sosa will have a Phil Nevin-like performance and tenure with Texas: a fine March against mostly non-MLB pitchers, a mediocre April, a terrible May, and unemployment by June. The DMN’s Evan Grant has a slightly different outlook:

On Sammy: I think he's still on the roster in mid-June, but don't think he's reached 12 homers. I don't think he's still on the roster at that point because he's been a great addition to the lineup, but rather because the Rangers are holding their own regardless of his performance.

My rejoinder is that Texas was holding its own last May when it jettisoned Nevin. On the other hand, Nevin was horribly expensive and not a “name,� while Sosa will be cheap and is SAMMY SOSA! So, on further reflection, Grant’s prediction makes perfect sense. It’s just a question of whether Sosa can maintain an employment-level line of around .250/.320/.430.

In the immediate future, Sosa’s presence exacerbates a crowded outfield situation. The Rangers already had eight outfielders on the 40-man roster before signing Swingin’ Sammy (but only five infielders including the bound-for-Oklahoma Joaquin Arias). Further, all eight outfielders have MLB experience, and only Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz have less a full year under their belts.

Texas will need to add Sosa plus a middle infielder (probably Jerry Hairston). Thus, not only does Sosa force an experienced player to the minors, he also forces a player (or players) off the 40 and most likely out of the organization. During the past three years, Texas has not started a season with more than seven outfielders on the 40.

Now, I’m not going to shed any tears if Texas trades Victor Diaz for some demi-prospect, and I don’t think Jason Botts is Travis Hafner’s heir. But I do disagree with the idea that Sosa is a risk-free, upside-only proposition. The risk is that because he’s Sammy, he could hit terribly and still occupy the #5 slot for a couple of months. That could cost Texas a game or two in the standings of a very winnable AL West.

(Lone Star Ball has a lengthy take on Jason Botts here.)

Posted by Lucas at 12:49 PM

February 24, 2007

Wanting More

Here’s where I pick on Victor Rojas even though I like his work on the radio. From an interview with John Vittas:

Q: Do you see Sammy Sosa batting 5th and making meaningful contributions for this ball club in 2007?

Rojas: Well, I’m rooting for him both from the standpoint of a player trying to get his career back on track and for the Rangers because they need a guy to hit in the middle of the lineup. They don’t think that they need a 35-40 homerun type of guy to protect Mark Teixeira. They need someone who’s going to hit 15-20 and drive in 80 or 90 runs to help the team.

If true, Texas had the very thing they “needed” last year. It’s name was Hank Blalock, and he hit 16 homers with 89 RBI, mostly while batting fifth and trailing Teixeira in the lineup.

Blalock had 646 plate appearances last year, not all batting fifth, but let’s use that as a basis for comparison. Per 646 PAs, the average American League #5 hitter had 24 homers and 96 RBI. Only one team had fewer than 17 homers and 82 RBI (amazingly, the Boston Red Sox.) A team should demand more from the #5 spot. Any vaguely competent hitter (or group of hitters) should collect 80 or more RBI simply because of the opportunity-rich environment.

You go back to two years ago when this team hit all those homeruns but didn’t win a lot of games. Now, you’ve got Ian Kinsler who’s capable of getting on base, Michael Young can do it, and Kenny Lofton to name a few.

I get all tingly when baseball people tout on-base percentage, but dreadful pitching is the reason Texas “hit all those homeruns but didn’t win a lot of games” in 2005. Remember those 300 innings from Chan Ho Park, Pedro Astacio, Ryan Drese and Ricardo Rodriguez? Good times.
Incidentally, greedy fan that I am, I want on-base specialists and “all those home runs” in the same season.

It’s just a matter of how many runs the 4, 5, and 6 guys in the lineup can produce, especially with two outs in an inning. I’m not a big numbers guy but it’s easy to look back and tell that two out hits just haven’t been there for the Rangers…

With runners in scoring position and two out, Texas ranked third in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Where the Rangers failed is in creating those opportunities: they ranked 11th in RISP/2out appearances. If Lofton and company can get on base and Blalock can find himself circa 2004-2005, Blalock might drive in 110 runs. And there will be much rejoicing.

Posted by Lucas at 06:53 PM

January 20, 2007

Pitchers OPS+ and Hitter Counterparts

Here’s a fun little game: turning every pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines for Ranger pitcher who faced at least 100 batters. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right. If none of the three qualified for the batting title, I listed a fourth who did. Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by ranking the sums of the squares of the differences in average, on-base percentage and slugging between pitcher and hitter. Now that I’ve put you to sleep with the previous sentence, the list:

Pitcher	Opposing AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS	Opposing AVG+/OBP+/SLG+ -- OPS+	Most Comparable Batters ('06 Stats Only)
W. Littleton	.189/.275/.262 -- .538	68 / 81 / 59 -- 40	Jerry Hairston, Abraham Nunez, Paul Bako, (Clint Barmes)
A. Otsuka	.241/.276/.318 -- .594	87 / 81 / 71 -- 52	Miguel Cairo, Neifi Perez, Cesar Izturis, (Ronny Cedeno)
J. Benoit	.224/.314/.310 -- .624	81 / 92 / 70 -- 62	Brandon Fahey, Matt Treanor, Alex Cora, (Adam Everett)
S. Feldman	.266/.324/.373 -- .697	96 / 95 / 84 -- 79	Julio Franco, Jack Wilson, Chone Figgins
F. Cordero	.265/.325/.395 -- .720	96 / 95 / 89 -- 84	Randy Winn, Jason Michaels, Jeff Conine
C. Wilson	.234/.326/.395 -- .722	85 / 96 / 89 -- 85	Jason Varitek, Joe Borchard, Chuck Finley, (Jhonny Peralta)
R. Bauer	.272/.338/.381 -- .718	99 / 99 / 85 -- 84	Adam Kennedy, Sean Casey, Chone Figgins
J. Rupe	.287/.344/.374 -- .718	104 / 101 / 84 -- 85	Nick Punto, Shannon Stewart, Mark Loretta
K. Millwood	.272/.317/.418 -- .735	99 / 93 / 94 -- 87	Kevin Mench, Jesse Barfield, Omar Infante
R. Mahay	.250/.335/.412 -- .747	91 / 98 / 92 -- 90	Matt Stairs, Cliff Floyd, Jose Bautista, (Hank Blalock)
V. Padilla	.266/.338/.419 -- .757	96 / 99 / 94 -- 93	Julio Lugo, Chris Burke, Cory Snyder, (Tony Graffanino)
R. Tejeda	.288/.360/.438 -- .797	104 / 106 / 98 -- 104	Edgar Renteria, Russ Martin, Connor Jackson
J. Wasdin	.266/.355/.468 -- .822	96 / 104 / 105 -- 109	Austin Kearns, Jim Edmonds, Aubrey Huff
J. Koronka	.294/.356/.468 -- .824	107 / 104 / 105 -- 109	Ryan Garko, Ryan Zimmerman, Magglio Ordonez
K. Loe	.317/.359/.486 -- .845	115 / 105 / 109 -- 114	Andrew Ethier, Mike Lamb, Gary Matthews
A. Eaton	.299/.366/.483 -- .848	108 / 107 / 108 -- 115	Andrew Ethier, Mike Lamb, Jose Reyes
J. Rheinecker	.349/.393/.477 -- .869	126 / 115 / 107 -- 122	Freddy Sanchez, Derek Jeter, Russ Johnson
E. Volquez	.359/.427/.538 -- .965	130 / 125 / 121 -- 146	Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Bard

UPDATE: Oops. Anyone notice that C.J. Wilson's third comparable is Chuck Finley? That should be Steve.

Posted by Lucas at 12:33 PM

January 04, 2007

Summary of Ranger Hitters By Fielding Position

Here’s a summary of the information presented throughout the last month. I use a two-year park factor and apply two-thirds of the weight to the most recent season. The Ballpark hasn’t been as crazily hitter-friendly during 2005-2006 as it prior years. The factors are:

Average: 1.005
On-Base %: 1.005
Slugging: 1.020

The Ballpark has a Runs factor of 1.037.

That “P� in front of OPS+ and other stats means “position;� it calculates how Rangers perform relative to other players in the league at a particular fielding position. Also, keep in mind that if you divide the team’s OPS by the league-average OPS, you will not derive OPS+. OPS+ is calculated by adding OBP+ and SLG+, then subtracting 100 (which is why, as you’ve probably noticed, some really terrible hitters have a negative OPS+).

Positions ordered by OPS+.

Pos.	Park-Adjusted League-Average (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	Texas Rangers (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	P-AVG+	AL Rank	P-OBP+	AL Rank	P-SLG+	AL Rank	P-OPS+	AL Rank
2B	.281/.333/.402 -- .735	.292/.357/.459 -- .816	104	6	107	2	114	2	121	2
SS	.281/.333/.418 -- .751	.307/.349/.441 -- .790	109	4	105	5	105	4	110	4
1B	.280/.353/.476 -- .829	.275/.364/.505 -- .869	98	6	103	5	106	6	109	6
CF	.276/.335/.443 -- .778	.292/.349/.457 -- .806	106	3	104	4	103	6	107	5
LF	.281/.349/.459 -- .807	.273/.341/.469 -- .810	97	11	98	7	102	6	100	6
C	.271/.332/.425 -- .756	.274/.313/.440 -- .753	101	7	94	11	104	8	98	8
3B	.270/.340/.451 -- .790	.282/.348/.429 -- .777	104	5	102	4	95	9	98	8
RF	.287/.350/.478 -- .828	.271/.319/.424 -- .743	94	11	91	13	89	14	80	14
DH	.267/.351/.481 -- .832	.238/.309/.410 -- .719	89	13	88	13	85	12	73	12
Team	.276/.341/.446 -- .784	.278/.338/.446 -- .784	101	8	99	9	100	7	99	3

Posted by Lucas at 05:44 PM

December 31, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Designated Hitters

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
P. Nevin	30%	.730	75	.309	88	.421	88	25	9	31	10.9%	19.3%
H. Blalock	20%	.532	29	.244	69	.288	60	9	2	9	6.3%	22.2%
M. Stairs	12%	.653	57	.273	78	.380	79	6	3	10	6.6%	25.0%
K. Mench	9%	.701	70	.321	91	.380	79	6	1	3	9.1%	7.3%
J. Botts	8%	.693	69	.321	91	.372	77	8	1	5	15.7%	33.3%
B. Wilkerson	7%	.527	27	.227	65	.300	62	3	1	1	9.1%	31.8%
M. Young	5%	1.396	232	.543	155	.853	177	7	2	10	2.9%	8.6%
C. Lee	5%	.981	135	.400	114	.581	121	6	1	5	8.8%	2.9%
5 others	4%	.839	102	.357	102	.481	100	1	1	2	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.719	73	.309	88	.410	85	71	21	76	8.7%	19.7%
AL Average	-	.832	-	.351	-	.481	-	83	28	93	11.1%	18.8%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	12	-	13	-	12	9	9	10	9	10

Texas DHes leapt from the worst OPS+ in the American League in 2005 to third-worst last season. Are you not suitably impressed? This next bit of information won’t help. Erase Michael Young’s softball line (.529/.543/.853 in seven games) and the remainder drops to – yikes -- .220/.290/.383. Remember, these are “designated hitters.”

As I’d mentioned in May, Nevin’s everyday presence in the middle of the order was a gloomily foregone conclusion despite mounting evidence that he wouldn’t perform. Texas relieved him of his duties just past the season’s one-quarter mark, after which time, for the most part, the situation worsened.

With nothing left to prove in the minors, Jason Botts received only a handful of starts over several weeks before management shuttled him back to Oklahoma. Wilkerson and Mench split the majority of DH starts for a month in a quasi-platoon while Mark DeRosa started every day (deservedly). Matt Stairs came, did nothing, and left. An injured Hank Blalock started mostly at DH during the final three weeks and reached his nadir as a batter. Only Young and Carlos Lee hit with authority.

AL Designated Hitters

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	1.016	150	.412	119	.604	131	114	45	137
Boston	1.003	143	.406	116	.597	127	109	50	131
Chicago Sox	.975	133	.408	116	.566	117	117	42	112
Oakland	.881	116	.368	106	.513	110	87	40	121
LA Angels	.849	108	.356	102	.492	106	84	28	96
NY Yankees	.842	106	.369	106	.473	100	104	30	114
Toronto	.811	94	.338	97	.473	97	65	16	69
Kansas City	.787	89	.348	97	.439	92	70	21	87
Detroit	.768	88	.309	88	.460	99	85	27	90
Baltimore	.754	85	.333	95	.421	90	63	16	71
Tampa Bay	.745	82	.323	92	.422	89	74	25	78
Texas	.719	73	.309	88	.410	85	71	21	76
Minnesota	.680	71	.316	92	.364	78	61	8	60
Seattle	.667	67	.300	87	.366	80	59	17	61

Best-hitting DHes: Cleveland has some guy named Hafner. I hear he's pretty good.

Worst: Seattle, a ghastly amalgam of Carl Everett, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and assorted others. Not to suggest Seattle’s acquisition of Jose Vidro was wise, but he will be an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 05:39 PM

December 29, 2006

Notes On The McCarthy-Danks Trade

(I’ve been out-of-pocket for a few days, so if I’m repeating someone else’s observations, I apologize…)

Age and Level
As mentioned by Adam yesterday, McCarthy isn’t two years older than Danks, only seventeen months. Because ages as applied to seasons are determined by a player’s age as of July 1, McCarthy is listed as two years older. Here is how McCarthy and Danks have advanced through minors in terms of age:

Age	McCarthy	Danks
18	Rookie	Rookie, Short-Season
19	Rookie, Short-Season	Low A, High A
20	Short-Season, Low A, High A	High A, AA
21	High A, AA	AA, AAA
22	AAA, Majors	---
23	Majors	---

Danks is only about a year ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy debuted in the Majors at the age of 22 years, 10 months. Danks will turn 22 next April.

Minor Performance
McCarthy clearly has pitched better than Danks in the minors. In addition an ERA nearly a full run lower than Danks, all the peripheral stats favor McCarthy.

Minors	RA	ERA	Opp. Avg.	HR%	BB%	SO%
McCarthy	3.92	3.39	.236	2.3%	4.9%	28.5%
Danks	4.96	4.33	.256	2.6%	8.6%	24.1%

But, stats can mislead. Many pitchers with good minor-league stats in aggregate have a shaky combination of outstanding stats in the low minors and mediocre performances in AA and AAA. To place more importance on higher levels, I created a weighted average, giving a lower level in the minors only two-thirds the weight of the one above it. So, AA counts two-thirds as much as AAA, high-A counts two-thirds as much as AA, etc. By the time we hit bottom, the Rookie League gets only about one-seventh the credit of AAA.

Why two-thirds? Well... it seems reasonable. I’m sure I (or someone) could look into the stats and devise a better weight for each level, but for the purpose of this simple exercise, two-thirds will suffice. Now, how do McCarthy and Danks match up:

Minors, Weighted	RA	ERA	Opp. Avg.	HR%	BB%	SO%
McCarthy	3.94	3.71	.230	2.7%	5.6%	28.2%
Danks	5.35	4.58	.262	2.9%	8.9%	23.3%

Again, McCarthy runs the table, and Danks’s weighted RA jumps to an uncomfortable 5.35 (21% of his runs in AAA were unearned.)

Parks
Chicago’s US Cellular Field plays nearly as hitter-friendly as Texas’s Ballpark. Cellular had a run factor of 1.05 versus the Ballpark’s 1.08 in 2006. Cellular depresses singles, doubles and triples but allows more homers and walks. Translating McCarthy’s statistics to Arlington increases his ERA only by about 0.05.

Intentional Walks
Ozzie Guillen ordered more intentional walks than any AL team and more than nine NL teams last season. Nine of McCarthy’s 33 walks were intentional. He got off easy; Neal Cotts issued seven free passes in just 30 innings. Losing the IBBs decreases McCarthy’s walk rate from 3.5 to 2.6 per nine innings.

Luck
McCarthy has permitted an uncommonly low hit rate on balls in play of .252 in the Majors. The White Sox as a whole allowed a .290 average on balls in play during 2005-2006. Perhaps McCarthy has a genuine ability to depress hits, but the probability of him continuing to allow an average 48 points below his teammates is very remote. Giving him a team-average hit rate in 2006 results in ten more hits allowed and a full run added to his ERA.

Earned Run Average
Pitchers who allow a high number of unearned runs usually aren’t as good as their ERAs would suggest. For example, in 2005 Kevin Millwood had an ERA of 2.86 but allowed eleven unearned runs (15% of his total), indicating his season was a bit of a fluke.

McCarthy has allowed zero unearned runs in 152 innings. He has a career ERA+ of 104, but his RA+ is 112. In 2006, he had a Component ERA (a Bill James creation that estimates what the pitcher’s ERA “should be” based on peripheral stats) of just 4.10 compared to his actual ERA of 4.68. (Note that the Component ERA does not compensate for his abnormally low hit rate on balls in play. Again, giving him a typical hit rate increases his ERA and RA by a run.)

Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM

December 28, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Right Fielders

Here’s your disaster.

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. DeRosa	37%	.783	90	.347	99	.436	91	30	4	29	7.3%	19.6%
K. Mench	35%	.824	99	.345	99	.479	100	26	10	36	6.6%	14.0%
N. Cruz	20%	.626	51	.261	75	.365	76	14	5	21	5.3%	22.6%
9 others	7%	.485	17	.208	60	.277	58	3	0	9	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.743	80	.319	91	.424	89	73	19	95	6.3%	19.4%
AL Average	-	.828	-	.350	-	.478	-	92	24	94	8.2%	16.7%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	14	-	13	-	14	14	10	7	14	11

Texas’s variety pack of right fielders posted a line of .271/.319/.424. That may only sound “bad,” not “really really bad,” but right field is for offense. Among the eight fielding positions plus DH, AL right fielders ranked first in batting average, third in OBP and second in slugging percentage.

The Rangers did not keep up. They ranked next-to-last in the league in on-base percentage, last in slugging, last in runs scored, and last in walk rate. Mark DeRosa batted .295/.347/.436, mostly later in the season after he’d cooled off. Now, that line compares quite favorably to DeRosa’s previous output from 1998 to 2005, but as an American League right fielder in 2006, not so much. Kevin Mench basically held his ground, and Nelson Cruz had a tough rookie season.

AL Right Fielders

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Chicago Sox	.958	129	.376	107	.582	122	111	44	129
LA Angels	.885	118	.363	104	.522	114	91	33	116
Toronto	.876	110	.354	102	.522	108	104	28	111
Baltimore	.851	108	.354	102	.497	106	89	26	86
NY Yankees	.814	100	.357	103	.456	97	93	22	101
Detroit	.808	99	.344	99	.463	101	90	26	103
Minnesota	.796	99	.348	102	.447	97	109	20	104
Oakland	.793	98	.358	104	.435	94	87	18	93
Seattle	.778	97	.371	108	.407	90	99	10	53
Cleveland	.784	96	.339	98	.445	97	91	20	89
Tampa Bay	.795	93	.310	89	.485	103	83	33	76
Boston	.777	92	.352	101	.425	91	84	17	77
Kansas City	.777	87	.332	93	.445	94	88	16	81
Texas	.743	80	.319	91	.424	89	73	19	95

Best-hitting right fielders: Chicago’s Jermaine Dye lapped the field, including LA’s Vlad.

Worst: See above.

Posted by Lucas at 01:37 PM

December 25, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Center Fielders

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
G. Matthews	89%	.875	125	.375	112	.500	113	102	19	75	8.6%	13.8%
6 others	11%	.272	(29)	.134	40	.138	31	4	0	7	2.4%	40.2%
TEAM	-	.807	107	.349	104	.457	103	106	19	82	8.0%	16.7%
AL Average	-	.778	-	.335	-	.443	-	95	19	74	7.5%	16.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	5	-	4	-	6	3	8	4	6	7

I’d guess Gary Matthews has no more than a 10% chance of justifying his contract. That’s not to diminish his outstanding final season in Texas. Center field has plagued the Rangers since the team logo was a cowboy hat perched on a baseball (see upper left). For one season, Matthews eradicated that plague with solid defense and an astonishing bat. New center fielder Kenny Lofton may outhit Matthews next year, but he won’t surpass Matthews’s 2006.

Laynce Nix, Adrian Brown, Jerry Hairston, Freddy Guzman, and Brad Wilkerson (1 at-bat) combined to go 9-for-80 (.113) with two walks. Good times.

AL Center Fielders

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	0.920	142	0.378	115	0.541	127	136	29	78
Toronto	0.915	132	0.364	109	0.551	123	106	34	113
Minnesota	0.803	112	0.334	102	0.468	109	102	32	99
NY Yankees	0.806	110	0.345	104	0.461	106	121	26	84
Texas	0.807	107	0.349	104	0.457	103	106	19	82
Detroit	0.777	104	0.330	99	0.447	105	101	22	76
Tampa Bay	0.758	96	0.314	94	0.443	102	94	21	79
LA Angels	0.733	95	0.345	104	0.388	91	87	10	71
Oakland	0.736	95	0.333	101	0.403	94	83	11	76
Kansas City	0.741	92	0.351	103	0.390	89	83	8	62
Boston	0.713	87	0.326	98	0.388	89	87	13	66
Baltimore	0.714	85	0.297	89	0.418	96	83	21	67
Seattle	0.656	75	0.294	89	0.362	86	80	11	42
Chicago Sox	0.672	73	0.302	90	0.370	83	67	12	47

Best-hitting center fielders: Cleveland, in the form of Grady Sizemore.

Worst: The Chicago White Sox, a combination of Brian Anderson (a terrific fielder who couldn’t hit) and Rob Mackowiak (overmatched in center but adequate at the plate). Seattle gets dishonorable mention with its three-headed monster of Jeremy Reed, Willie Bloomquist and Adam Jones (until Ichiro! took over).

Posted by Lucas at 02:01 AM

December 23, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Left Fielders

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
B. Wilkerson	45%	.777	92	.325	93	.452	99	52	14	41	10.9%	32.0%
C. Lee	33%	.882	117	.364	104	.517	113	36	8	30	7.7%	11.3%
K. Mench	9%	.798	97	.333	96	.464	101	4	1	11	5.1%	10.2%
J. Hairston	8%	.686	74	.360	103	.326	71	8	0	3	14.0%	16.0%
6 others	5%	.813	99	.313	90	.500	109	3	1	5	6.3%	15.6%
TEAM	-	.809	100	.341	98	.469	102	103	24	90	9.3%	21.2%
AL Average	-	.807	-	.349	-	.459	-	94	20	85	8.9%	15.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	6	-	7	-	6	3	5	6	6	13

On the whole, Texas left fielders didn’t pull the team underwater as far as you might think. Wilkerson, Mench, and Hairston (who received fifty[!] plate appearances in left – at least he got on base…) did, on their own, but then Carlos Lee arrived and messed things up by batting well. For the real batting disaster, one must look over to right field.

AL Left Fielders

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Boston	.977	145	.423	122	.553	123	101	36	105
Seattle	.871	122	.354	103	.516	118	105	33	124
Oakland	.849	114	.355	103	.494	111	109	31	86
Toronto	.850	112	.395	114	.455	98	96	15	71
Tampa Bay	.817	104	.344	99	.473	105	97	20	83
Texas	.809	100	.341	98	.469	102	103	24	90
NY Yankees	.778	97	.360	105	.419	93	102	13	72
LA Angels	.777	97	.335	97	.442	100	83	19	91
Detroit	.782	96	.303	87	.479	109	94	34	98
Kansas City	.791	95	.342	97	.449	99	102	16	94
Minnesota	.746	91	.329	97	.417	94	74	17	78
Chicago Sox	.720	80	.341	98	.379	82	98	4	57
Cleveland	.704	80	.311	91	.393	89	98	13	76
Baltimore	.682	73	.322	93	.359	80	60	7	66

Best-hitting left fielders: Boston. Manny. Seattle ranks a surprising second thanks to a terrific effort from Raul Ibanez.

Worst: Baltimore. Jeff Conine and Brandon Fahey make a bad corner-outfield tandem? Well knock me down with a feather! (Fahey, by the way, was a Texas Longhorn on the ’02 championship team.)

Posted by Lucas at 09:33 AM

December 18, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Shortstops

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. Young	95%	.785	109	.346	104	.438	105	86	12	93	6.7%	13.2%
4 others	5%	.897	140	.412	124	.485	116	10	0	5	2.9%	8.8%
TEAM	-	.790	110	.349	105	.441	105	96	12	98	6.5%	13.0%
AL Average	-	.751	-	.333	-	.418	-	85	13	74	6.9%	14.5%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	4	-	5	-	4	5	8	2	9	5

After four consecutive years of increasingly stunning improvement culminating in last year’s astounding line of .331/.385/.513, Michael Young finally regressed, hitting .314/.356/.459 overall and “only” .303/.346/.438 as a shortstop. As such, he declined from brilliant to very good, lagging only behind the Big Three of Jeter, Tejada, and Carlos Guillen.

Young doesn’t require a backup, but those who did squeeze in a few innings at shortstop hit very well (dollops of Mark DeRosa, Joaquin Arias, and Jerry Hairston).

AL Shortstops

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Detroit	.893	143	.393	118	.500	124	105	19	81
NY Yankees	.893	142	.412	125	.481	117	126	15	100
Baltimore	.866	133	.382	115	.484	118	101	22	91
Texas	.790	110	.349	105	.441	105	96	12	98
LA Angels	.742	102	.338	102	.403	100	102	9	79
Minnesota	.713	97	.342	105	.372	92	60	3	50
Seattle	.708	95	.310	94	.398	100	72	8	48
Oakland	.710	94	.333	101	.376	93	82	13	65
Cleveland	.699	92	.315	96	.384	96	88	14	78
Toronto	.716	90	.321	97	.395	93	81	12	67
Chicago Sox	.712	87	.271	81	.442	105	66	24	92
Tampa Bay	.690	86	.305	92	.386	94	80	16	53
Boston	.674	82	.306	92	.368	90	70	10	63
Kansas City	.575	53	.261	77	.314	76	58	9	68

Best-hitting shortstops: Detroit (mostly the aforementioned Guillen, who hit .320/.400/.519) bested New York (Derek Jeter) in OPS, but the Yankees’ advantage in OBP makes him best by a slight margin.

Worst: Kansas City’s Angel Berroa just barely qualified for the batting title with 503 plate appearances and still managed to make almost 400 outs. KC’s team line of .229/.261/.314 and P-OPS+ 53 were the worst in the American League at any position. In essence, Kansas City’s shortstop’s hit about as well as Eric Milton (.224/.250/.327).

Posted by Lucas at 06:31 PM

December 14, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Third Basemen

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
H. Blalock	75%	.777	98	.346	102	.431	96	67	14	80	8.4%	13.6%
M. DeRosa	24%	.767	95	.345	102	.422	94	21	5	22	9.8%	19.0%
3 others	2%	.899	132	.455	134	.444	99	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM	-	.777	98	.348	102	.429	95	90	19	102	8.9%	14.7%
AL Average	-	.790	-	.340	-	.451	-	91	22	89	8.8%	16.1%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	4	-	9	8	10	3	4	6

Texas third basemen performed slightly better than I expected, finishing in the middle of the AL pack. Most of Hank Blalock’s death spiral occurred while DH’ing, and at third he at least reached base at an acceptable rate. Much more on him to come. Mark DeRosa spent much of the last month at third and had cooled off by then.

AL Third Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
NY Yankees	.909	133	.389	116	.520	117	117	36	124
Kansas City	.859	116	.366	106	.493	110	96	21	96
Boston	.823	110	.341	101	.482	109	88	24	90
Toronto	.820	107	.349	103	.472	104	105	35	110
Seattle	.775	102	.322	96	.453	106	91	25	91
Detroit	.785	102	.318	94	.467	108	86	27	85
Chicago Sox	.796	99	.320	94	.476	105	83	30	97
Texas	.777	98	.348	102	.429	95	90	19	102
Tampa Bay	.768	97	.334	99	.434	98	71	20	78
Oakland	.742	93	.335	100	.408	93	84	24	81
LA Angels	.736	91	.330	98	.405	93	99	16	69
Baltimore	.735	90	.342	101	.393	89	99	16	89
Minnesota	.703	85	.329	99	.374	86	93	8	64
Cleveland	.688	80	.309	92	.379	88	73	12	75

Best-hitting AL third basemen: Alex Rodriguez had a poor season (by his lofty standards) and was still, easily, the best-hitting third baseman in the league. Incidentally, the Silver Slugger award went to Joe Crede, who trailed Rodriguez in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, home runs, runs batted in, and walks. Voters consist of an apparently unengaged collection of league managers and coaches.

Worst: Cleveland scored 80 more runs than in 2005 in spite of Aaron Boone (.248/.311/.369) and Andy Marte (.226/.287/.421).

Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM

December 11, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Second Basemen

Second base has become the hitter’s graveyard. Among the nine AL positions (fielders plus DH), 2Bs had the fewest homers (by 34) and the worst walk rate. They ranked third in average but only seventh in OBP and dead last in slugging. John Hart must be aghast.

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
I. Kinsler	72%	.802	117	.347	104	.455	113	65	14	55	8.7%	13.9%
M. DeRosa	16%	1.018	175	.429	129	.589	146	20	3	15	7.8%	14.6%
D. Jimenez	9%	.692	89	.339	102	.353	88	6	1	8	13.6%	10.2%
3 others	3%	.417	16	.250	75	.167	41	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.816	121	.357	107	.459	114	93	18	78	9.0%	14.3%
AL Average	-	.735	-	.333	-	.402	-	83	11	71	6.7%	12.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	2	-	2	-	2	3	3	5	2	9

Happily, the Rangers bucked that trend. Ian Kinsler had not only a fine rookie season but a fine season among all second basemen. Of the fourteen AL 2Bs with the most plate appearances, Kinsler ranked seventh in average, sixth in OBP, and third in slugging. Only Tad Iguchi and Robinson Cano had more homers. Forget about potential. Kinsler already stands with the league’s best hitters at his position.

Kinsler didn’t qualify for the batting title because a thumb injury cost him several weeks. During that time, Rogers Hornsby arose from the dead and assumed the form of Mark DeRosa. I understand that Hornsby’s estate will receive a portion of DeRosa’s $13 million contract.

AL Second Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
NY Yankees	.813	123	.343	104	.470	119	80	14	99
Texas	.816	121	.357	107	.459	114	93	18	78
Chicago Sox	.772	109	.351	105	.420	104	117	20	86
Cleveland	.745	108	.335	102	.410	106	80	12	72
Seattle	.734	106	.330	101	.404	106	85	10	82
LA Angels	.734	104	.331	100	.403	104	62	7	77
Baltimore	.731	102	.339	102	.391	99	93	11	64
Kansas City	.743	101	.340	100	.403	101	104	8	62
Minnesota	.710	101	.353	109	.357	92	89	3	52
Detroit	.698	94	.328	99	.370	96	80	6	73
Boston	.698	93	.338	102	.361	92	82	7	61
Oakland	.675	88	.307	93	.368	94	73	11	66
Tampa Bay	.668	83	.282	85	.386	98	62	20	83
Toronto	.627	71	.307	93	.320	79	65	5	41

Best-hitting AL second basemen: The Yankees (a great Robinson Cano dragged down by Miguel Cairo and Nick Green) nudged Texas in OPS+, but Texas had a better indexed on-base percentage. It’s my blog, so I’ll give the award to Texas.

Worst: The Blue Jays by an unhealthy margin. For probably no reason, Aaron Hill hit .339/.392/.463 at short and .268/.329/.348 at second. His assistants, mostly Russ Adams and Edgardo Alfonzo, were execrable.

Posted by Lucas at 11:24 PM

December 08, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: First Basemen

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. Teixeira	98%	.885	113	.370	105	.515	108	99	33	110	12.5%	18.1%
4 others	2%	.143	(65)	.071	20	.071	15	1	0	0	0.0%	28.6%
TEAM	-	.869	109	.364	103	.505	106	100	33	110	12.2%	18.3%
AL Average	-	.829	-	.353	-	.476	-	85	25	96	9.3%	17.5%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	6	-	5	-	6	3	4	4	1	10

Through the season’s first 84 games, Mark Teixeira had eight homers and a .432 slugging percentage. Afterwards, 25 and .607. Despite his posting the worst rate stats since his rookie season, Texas 1Bs finished among the top half in OBP and slugging and fourth or better in runs, homers and RBI. Which is to say, a slightly down year from Teixeira is still pretty special. He turns 27 next April and may produce the titanic season I expected in 2006.

Teixeira drew twelve intentional walks last year, eighth-most in the AL. I cursorily attributed most of them to opponents wanting a desirable matchup against Hank Blalock, who followed Teixeira in the order in 71 games and batted .216/.281/.315 against lefthanders. In fact, only once did a team intentionally walk Teixeira to have a lefty face Blalock:

Date	Inning	Score	Outs	Runners	Next Batter	Result
Apr-09	b6	+2	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
Apr-11	t7	+3	2	--3	Nevin	lineout
Apr-20	t6	+1	1	-2-	Nevin	walk; Mench later doubled home a run
May-08	b5	+2	0	-2-	Nevin	flyout; Teixeira later scored
May-18	t7	+4	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
May-22	b7	+1	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
Jun-02	t7	tie	2	-2-	Blalock	groundout against lefty reliever Neal Cotts
Jul-03	b7	+2	1	-23	DeRosa	single, 2 RBI
Jul-21	t8	+3	0	-2-	DeRosa	lineout; Teixeira later scored
Jul-30	b4	+5	1	-2-	Laird	groundout; Teixeira later scored
Aug-08	t1	tie	1	-23	Blalock	grounded into double play against righty starter
Sep-15	b6	tie	2	-2-	Lee	lineout

Texas batted .090/.167/.090 immediately following IBBs to Teixeira, though he did score three runs.

AL First Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Minnesota	.970	139	.384	111	.586	128	101	38	140
Chicago Sox	.943	126	.387	109	.556	117	102	35	123
Cleveland	.910	125	.376	108	.534	117	99	31	118
Toronto	.905	117	.380	108	.524	109	93	26	95
Seattle	.847	110	.340	98	.507	112	78	36	110
Texas	.869	109	.364	103	.505	106	100	33	110
NY Yankees	.804	97	.348	100	.455	97	86	29	94
Baltimore	.785	94	.359	102	.426	92	79	18	84
Boston	.773	91	.359	102	.414	89	97	16	86
Kansas City	.774	87	.351	98	.423	90	82	13	96
Detroit	.754	86	.320	91	.434	95	76	23	89
Oakland	.737	83	.337	97	.400	87	77	23	79
Tampa Bay	.715	75	.315	90	.400	86	64	21	63
LA Angels	.664	65	.297	85	.367	80	59	11	61

Best-hitting 1Bs: Minnesota. AL MVP Justin Morneau led the way, and Mike Cuddyer had a small but significant assist (.455/.520/.1.045 in 25 appearances).

Worst: Los Angeles wisely moved Darin Erstad back to the outfield, but his replacements were even worse at the plate. Kendry Morales, Robb Quinlan, Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman combined to hit an abominable .255/.297/.367. LA’s first-sackers ranked last in the league in OBP, slugging, runs, homers and RBI. Good for them.

Posted by Lucas at 11:15 PM

December 03, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Catchers

The Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters returns with positional analyses.

In case you’re new to the game: You probably know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.

For Texas’s catchers, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other catchers. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .270/.330/.416. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .332 and a slugging percentage of .435 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages. Instead of OPS+, I use P-OPS+, the “P” standing for “position.”

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
R. Barajas	57%	.718	89	.302	91	.416	98	49	11	41	4.8%	14.0%
G. Laird	41%	.807	112	.332	100	.475	112	43	7	22	4.8%	21.0%
M. Ojeda	2%	.667	74	.250	75	.417	98	0	0	4	0.0%	25.0%
TEAM	-	.753	98	.313	94	.440	104	92	18	67	4.7%	17.1%
AL Average	-	.756	-	.332	-	.425	-	74	18	80	7.4%	15.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	11	-	8	2	6	11	12	10

AL catchers had an OPS+ of 93 relative to the entire league, better than I expected.

I’m inclined to believe that if a catcher is coming off a .298 OBP (overall) and a team offers him two years and $5+ million, maybe, just maybe, he should accept it. But I’m just an observer. Barajas hit 47 homers as a Ranger, about 45 more than I expected when Texas signed him to a minor-league deal in 2004. I called him “Todd Greene Lite” at the time and he ended up being… Todd Greene.

Gerald Laird certainly outhit Barajas, but a late-season decline left him with a very ordinary OBP (even for a catcher), leaving the team among the worst in the AL in that respect. He’d shown an adequate walk rate in the minors, so he has some room to improve. In essence, his thumb injury in May 2004 cost him over two years of regular play in the Majors. Remember who collided with him at home plate? Ken Harvey.

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Minnesota	.867	138	.401	124	.466	114	94	12	99
Cleveland	.810	121	.365	112	.445	109	79	18	98
NY Yankees	.812	118	.354	108	.458	110	72	25	105
Baltimore	.802	114	.342	103	.459	111	75	26	100
Toronto	.789	107	.333	101	.455	106	71	26	82
Detroit	.766	106	.324	98	.441	108	85	17	82
Seattle	.730	99	.310	95	.420	104	68	20	80
Texas	.753	98	.313	94	.440	104	92	18	67
LA Angels	.725	96	.314	95	.411	101	72	22	69
Chicago Sox	.733	93	.320	96	.413	97	75	18	79
Oakland	.698	92	.356	109	.343	83	81	3	60
Boston	.668	79	.299	90	.369	89	66	18	85
Tampa Bay	.661	77	.299	91	.362	87	53	13	52
Kansas City	.639	69	.293	87	.345	82	49	11	63

Teams are sorted by P-OPS+.

Best-hitting catchers: Minnesota , featuring AL MVP Joe Mauer. Oh, right…

Worst-hitting catchers: Kansas City ’s John Buck and Paul Bako hit badly enough that Jason Larue represented an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 12:30 PM

November 25, 2006

Summary of Ranger Hitters By Position in Batting Order

Here’s a summary of the information presented throughout the last month. For what it’s worth, I use a two-year park factor and apply two-thirds of the weight to the most recent season. The Ballpark hasn’t been as crazily hitter-friendly during 2005-2006 as it prior years. The factors are:

Average: 1.005
On-Base %: 1.005
Slugging: 1.020

The Ballpark has a Runs factor of 1.037.

That “L� in front of OPS+ and other stats means “lineup;� it calculates how Rangers perform relative to other players in the league at a particular spot in the batting order. Also, keep in mind that if you divide the team’s OPS by the league-average OPS, you will not derive OPS+. OPS+ is calculated by adding OBP+ and SLG+, then subtracting 100 (which is why, as you’ve probably noticed, some really terrible hitters have a negative OPS+).

Order	Park-Adjusted League-Average (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	Texas Rangers (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	L-AVG+	AL Rank	L-OBP+	AL Rank	L-SLG+	AL Rank	L-OPS+	AL Rank
1	.285/.351/.431 -- .782	.304/.361/.489 -- .850	107	3	103	5	114	3	116	4
2	.288/.346/.431 -- .777	.310/.356/.442 -- .798	108	2	103	5	103	6	105	6
3	.283/.358/.482 -- .840	.283/.351/.481 -- .832	100	5	98	7	100	7	98	7
4	.288/.369/.510 -- .878	.273/.360/.477 -- .837	95	10	98	9	94	12	91	10
5	.287/.359/.490 -- .849	.292/.348/.442 -- .790	102	6	97	10	90	12	87	11
6	.267/.325/.446 -- .772	.259/.314/.423 -- .737	97	10	97	9	95	10	91	10
7	.270/.324/.438 -- .762	.260/.324/.432 -- .756	96	9	100	6	99	9	99	9
8	.260/.322/.400 -- .721	.242/.308/.375 -- .683	93	12	96	10	94	11	90	12
9	.252/.304/.376 -- .681	.261/.310/.439 -- .749	104	6	102	6	117	3	119	3
ALL	.276/.341/.446 -- .787	.278/.338/.446 -- .784	101	8	99	9	100	7	99	8

Posted by Lucas at 06:12 PM

November 14, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #8 and #9 Hitters

Good #8 and #9 hitters rarely exist for any length of time. Good hitters move to a higher spot in the order, bad ones stay there because the team has no worthy replacement. Catchers, rookies, subs and occasionally pitchers dominate the last two spots in the order. The average AL #8 hitter batted .259/.320/.392; #9s batted .250/.303/.369.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #8 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
R Barajas	23%	.529	47	.243	76	.286	72	15	3	15	8	21	0
I Kinsler	20%	.789	119	.358	111	.431	108	20	2	15	13	11	-3
G Laird	17%	.786	116	.330	103	.455	114	19	3	6	6	27	-2
B Wilkerson	13%	.520	46	.256	80	.264	66	4	1	9	9	27	0
M DeRosa	8%	1.159	219	.472	147	.688	172	11	1	10	4	9	1
J Botts	8%	.727	102	.327	102	.400	100	7	1	5	7	15	0
The Rest	12%	.466	31	.245	76	.221	55	6	0	8	6	15	0
TEAM	-	.682	90	.308	96	.375	94	82	11	68	53	125	-4
AL Average*	-	.721	-	.322	-	.400	-	74	13	71	48	111	0
Team Rank in AL	-	-	12	-	10	-	11	2	7	10	4	10	11

Texas #9 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
R Barajas	27%	.827	141	.333	109	.494	131	28	6	21	7	23	0
N Cruz	18%	.732	113	.296	97	.436	116	13	5	19	6	22	1
G Laird	13%	.859	149	.325	107	.534	142	15	3	9	4	13	1
I Kinsler	11%	.999	191	.408	134	.590	157	11	4	10	7	9	0
J Hairston	8%	.619	84	.308	101	.311	83	9	0	5	6	11	-1
D Jimenez	6%	.526	54	.235	77	.290	77	2	1	6	3	4	0
Pitchers	2%	.067	-78	.067	22	.000	0	0	0	0	0	7	0
The Rest	15%	.616	81	.267	88	.349	93	11	1	9	2	25	-2
TEAM	-	.750	119	.310	102	.439	117	89	20	79	35	114	-1
AL Average*	-	.681	-	.304	-	.376	-	70	11	62	39	112	1
Team Rank in AL	-	-	3	-	6	-	3	1	2	2	10	9	9

Largely because of Rod Barajas, Texas had lousy #8 hitting and fantastic #9 hitting. Barajas batted .188/.243/.286 in eighth and .295/.333/.494 in ninth. Imagine what he’d accomplish batting tenth, or twelfth. Ian Kinsler and Gerald Laird hit very well from both spots. Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz held their ground strictly in terms of where they batted (and ignoring their fielding positions). Ranger pitchers proved the mathematical possibility of a sub-zero OPS+.

American League #8 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Toronto	.837	132	.382	119	.455	113	78	11	64
Detroit	.809	127	.332	104	.476	124	81	25	84
Baltimore	.793	124	.374	117	.419	107	79	11	88
LA Angels	.765	117	.327	102	.439	114	86	18	77
Chicago Sox	.739	103	.301	93	.438	109	71	21	81
Oakland	.710	102	.330	104	.379	98	69	11	79
Boston	.704	98	.321	100	.383	98	76	13	76
Minnesota	.685	97	.325	103	.360	93	74	8	51
NY Yankees	.691	94	.305	96	.386	98	82	16	70
Seattle	.671	93	.309	97	.362	95	66	9	53
Cleveland	.670	91	.297	94	.374	98	75	12	76
Texas	.682	90	.308	96	.375	94	82	11	68
Kansas City	.616	71	.289	88	.327	82	51	10	79
Tampa Bay	.593	68	.283	88	.311	79	61	11	47

Best #8 Hitting: Toronto. Aaron Hill started an unusual 93 games in the #8 spot and batted .314/.383/.422. Eric Hinske, Jason Phillips, Alex Rios, Gregg Zaun, and household names like John Hattig and Adam Lind hit extraordinarily well in cameos.

Worst: Tampa Bay, which also had the worst #7 batters and next-to-worst #9 batters. Josh Paul was serviceable, the rest putrid (Tomas Perez, B.J. Upton, Damon Hollins and others).

American League #9 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Detroit	.772	130	.317	105	.456	126	84	19	75
Cleveland	.764	130	.326	109	.438	122	73	16	86
Texas	.750	119	.310	102	.439	117	89	20	79
Minnesota	.685	109	.330	111	.355	98	64	3	51
LA Angels	.688	108	.319	106	.369	102	61	7	68
Boston	.688	105	.312	103	.377	102	73	10	68
Seattle	.665	102	.288	96	.377	106	70	9	53
Chicago Sox	.683	99	.292	96	.391	104	72	21	63
Oakland	.648	95	.303	101	.345	95	60	10	54
Kansas City	.655	93	.309	100	.346	93	70	6	56
Baltimore	.646	93	.307	101	.339	92	63	8	60
NY Yankees	.642	93	.305	101	.337	91	75	8	57
Tampa Bay	.579	73	.267	88	.313	85	63	8	45
Toronto	.538	59	.255	84	.283	74	61	6	59

Best #9 Hitting: Detroit and Cleveland. Brandon Inge spent half the season batting ninth and produced a line of .278/.329/.509. Aaron Boone (.297/.348/.492) and Casey Blake (.356/.433/.533) seemed comfortable waiting for eight teammates to hit first.

Worst: Toronto. The NL’s Padres, Marlins and Reds had better #9 hitters than Toronto. John McDonald, Russ Adams, and Aaron Hill (in sharp contrast to his job at #8) were the primary culprits.

Posted by Lucas at 01:42 AM

November 12, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #7 Hitters

AL #7 hitters dropped off very little from #6s this season: .001 in on-base percentage and .008 in slugging. The difference is that teams rarely have “regular” #7 hitters. Only one team had a player with more than a half-season’s worth of starts batting seventh (Seattle with Kenji Johjima). Teams have enough trouble finding six quality hitters; Number 7 is usually the best of what’s left.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #7 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
B Wilkerson	25%	.817	115	.356	110	.460	105	29	6	13	18	49	-4
I Kinsler	19%	.875	129	.357	110	.518	118	18	5	19	9	19	6
M Stairs	13%	.637	67	.268	83	.368	84	6	3	11	5	20	0
K Mench	9%	.939	146	.393	121	.545	125	8	2	9	5	5	0
G Laird	8%	.637	69	.291	90	.346	79	8	0	5	1	12	2
M DeRosa	8%	.771	102	.327	101	.444	101	6	2	8	5	10	-2
R Barajas	7%	.936	144	.378	117	.558	127	5	2	4	2	6	0
The Rest	10%	.328	-11	.178	55	.150	34	5	0	1	4	19	0
TEAM	-	.755	99	.324	100	.432	99	85	20	70	49	140	2
AL Average*	-	.762	-	.324	-	.438	-	77	20	74	45	111	2
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	6	-	9	2	7	8	6	13	6

Seven Rangers hit from the #7 spot in at least ten games. After a disastrous week-plus leading off, Brad Wilkerson spent most of the next month batting seventh and hit pretty well. Ian Kinsler also hit well, batting seventh sparingly during the summer and more frequently in September. In briefer appearances, Kevin Mench and Rod Barajas performed well above average, and Mark DeRosa held the position.

On the downside, Matt Stairs occupied the seventh position almost exclusively during his brief stay in Texas and did little. Laird also didn’t hit much here, and “The Rest” – Adrian Brown, Laynce Nix, Hank Blalock, and several others – hit .117 in 60 at-bats.

American League #7 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Oakland	.868	133	.368	115	.500	118	91	27	89
NY Yankees	.858	129	.368	115	.489	114	83	22	99
Toronto	.830	117	.352	109	.478	108	83	24	69
Boston	.804	114	.346	107	.458	107	83	19	75
Baltimore	.768	103	.310	96	.457	107	82	24	65
Seattle	.738	101	.323	101	.415	100	72	17	69
Detroit	.750	100	.300	93	.450	107	85	30	94
Texas	.755	99	.324	100	.432	99	85	20	70
Minnesota	.736	99	.312	99	.424	100	73	20	84
Cleveland	.699	90	.313	98	.386	92	73	14	83
LA Angels	.685	85	.304	94	.381	91	71	14	58
Chicago Sox	.695	82	.291	90	.404	92	75	21	77
Kansas City	.687	81	.312	95	.375	86	69	9	63
Tampa Bay	.650	74	.291	90	.359	84	55	16	46

Best #7 hitting: Oakland should bat its whole team seventh. Nick Swisher (.333/.437/.686) and Dan Johnson (.295/.375/.538) compensated for the team’s terrible hitting in most of the order’s higher spots.

Worst: Tampa Bay. First baseman Travis Lee batted .220/.308/.322 in 133 appearances. Damon Hollins, B.J. Upton, Josh Paul, Dionner Navarro and Greg Norton were worse. Only Toby Hall and Russ Branyan kept the spot becoming a black hole.

Posted by Lucas at 07:05 PM

November 10, 2006

Ballpark News

You may have already seen this linked by Lone Star Ball, but if not, Joe Siegler has the rundown on parking costs, game-time changes, and "variable pricing" at The Ballpark next season.

Posted by Lucas at 08:12 AM

November 09, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #6 Hitters

The quality of American League lineups drops off sharply after the fifth hitter. #6 hitters lose 34 points of OBP and 43 of slugging to their #5 counterparts. On the whole, they have lackluster on-base skills and respectable power.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #5 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
K Mench	35%	.781	102	.319	98	.462	104	24	10	39	13	27	1
M DeRosa	29%	.723	89	.320	98	.403	90	31	5	26	14	44	-4
I Kinsler	11%	.610	61	.286	88	.324	73	8	1	4	4	10	-1
B Wilkerson	11%	.928	136	.338	104	.590	132	16	6	16	9	22	2
H Blalock	7%	.442	17	.220	68	.222	50	4	1	5	3	15	0
The Rest	6%	.826	117	.382	117	.444	100	9	1	5	6	6	0
TEAM	-	.737	91	.314	97	.423	95	92	24	95	49	124	-2
AL Average*	-	.772	-	.325	-	.446	-	83	24	85	50	116	-2
Team Rank in AL	-	-	10	-	9	-	10	3	7	4	7	10	6

Kevin Mench embodied the perfectly average #6 hitter, batting .276/.319/.462. 2006 represented his final chance to step forward and make himself a permanent fixture in Texas, and in that respect he failed. The power came in one astonishing burst, seven homers in consecutive games during late April. In those games he batted .414/.414/.931, in his other 80 in Texas he hit only .271/.331/.364 with five homers. Still, purely in terms of other #6 hitters, he performed adequately overall.

Mark DeRosa spent much of the season’s second half and a plurality of his overall time batting sixth. DeRosa cooled off after the All-Star break, walking and homering with more frequency but losing 70 points of batting average and almost half of his rate of doubles. Despite the decline, his post-break line of .265/.333/.423 bettered his pre-2006 career of .262/.324/.380. Some team, not likely Texas, will pay him commensurately to his 2006 performance alone, not the prior years.

Ian Kinsler started twenty games in the #6 hole, mostly late in the season but never more than two games consecutively. For no particular reason, he hit much worse there than in the lineup’s final three spots. His overall line of .286/.347/.454 makes him a solid #2 and tolerable leadoff hitter. Brad Wilkerson shared the six spot with Kevin Mench from mid-May until mid-June and batted well. Hank Blalock often hit sixth against lefties during the second half. “Hank Blalock,” “lefties” and “second half” created a familiar toxic brew.

Texas failed to achieve league-average OBP or slugging from any of the #4, #5 or #6 spots.

American League #6 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	.880	134	.365	114	.515	121	98	29	110
Baltimore	.830	119	.358	110	.472	108	89	25	72
NY Yankees	.819	115	.342	106	.477	109	101	27	103
Minnesota	.806	114	.325	102	.482	112	91	35	111
Detroit	.792	109	.319	98	.474	110	87	30	95
Kansas City	.775	101	.338	102	.437	99	79	16	86
Boston	.758	101	.343	106	.415	95	86	18	81
LA Angels	.731	94	.306	95	.425	99	80	24	80
Tampa Bay	.740	93	.297	92	.442	101	64	27	77
Texas	.737	91	.314	97	.423	95	92	24	95
Oakland	.711	90	.315	98	.396	92	88	19	64
Chicago Sox	.721	86	.305	94	.416	93	76	22	86
Seattle	.671	81	.298	93	.373	88	69	20	69
Toronto	.686	79	.308	95	.378	84	64	13	61

Best #6 hitting: Cleveland. Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, Ron Beilliard, Casey Blake and several others combined for 29 homers and 110 RBI. Only Jhonny Peralta (.286/.348/.389) failed to supply the requisite power.

Worst: Toronto. The Jays had no choice but to dump the overly honest Shea Hillenbrand, but they did miss his bat. Hilly hit .297/.341/.431 in one-third of the team’s appearances from the #6 spot, while his teammates (Molina, Rios, Zaun, Hill, etc.) provided a lifeless .246/.295/.352 in 450 appearances.

Posted by Lucas at 07:28 PM

November 04, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #5 Hitters

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #5 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
H Blalock	63%	.789	87	.345	96	.445	91	52	13	67	33	70	0
M DeRosa	26%	.834	99	.380	106	.454	93	18	3	23	15	28	1
K Mench	6%	.735	78	.370	103	.366	75	4	0	2	4	9	0
The Rest	5%	.628	42	.190	53	.438	89	4	2	6	0	8	0
TEAM	-	.789	87	.348	97	.442	90	78	18	98	52	115	1
AL Average*	-	.849	-	.359	-	.490	-	88	26	102	66	109	-1
Team Rank in AL	-	-	11	-	10	-	12	9	12	5	14	10	6

I could write all day about Hank Blalock and probably will soon. I’ll save most of it for the discussion of batters by defensive position. As with Michael Young, let’s review Blalock’s overall season line of .266/.325/.401 as if he’d spent the entire year in the same spot in the order:

Bat Pos.	L-OPS+	L-obp+	L-slg+
1	86	93	93
2	87	94	93
3	74	91	83
4	67	88	79
5	72	91	82
6	90	100	90
7	92	100	92
8	101	101	100
9	113	107	107

Hammerin’ Hank’s 2006 would have been a liability everywhere outside the bottom two spots in the order. Considering that he spent over 90% of the season batting fourth or fifth, the actual liability was pretty severe. He did perform best in the #5 spot, batting .290/.345/.445.

The one adequate Ranger in this slot was the unlikely Mark DeRosa, who batted fifth during much of June and usually only against lefties thereafter. Like Blalock he didn’t offer much power, but his terrific OBP (fueled by a .319 batting average) amply compensated. After Phil Nevin’s disposal, Kevin Mench spent a few games at fifth as a singles-and-walks machine. “The Rest” (mostly Nevin, one game each from Barajas, Laird and Kinsler) largely did not distinguish themselves.

American League #5 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Chicago Sox	1.002	133	.391	109	.610	124	103	45	140
NY Yankees	.934	124	.402	113	.532	110	98	33	141
Minnesota	.920	122	.375	107	.545	115	104	32	127
Detroit	.869	110	.382	107	.487	103	105	18	86
Toronto	.886	107	.354	99	.532	107	92	32	118
LA Angels	.849	105	.372	104	.476	101	88	27	92
Kansas City	.862	102	.365	100	.498	102	94	23	89
Cleveland	.806	96	.350	99	.456	97	93	20	98
Seattle	.801	95	.335	95	.466	100	76	30	94
Oakland	.782	90	.353	100	.430	91	78	22	88
Texas	.789	87	.348	97	.442	90	78	18	98
Tampa Bay	.780	85	.322	90	.458	95	69	28	87
Baltimore	.758	82	.330	92	.428	89	77	21	98
Boston	.683	65	.321	90	.362	76	76	14	75

Texas's closest neighbors in #5 batting were Oakland, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Once again, bad company.

Best #5 Hitting: The White Sox. Jermaine Dye batted .315/.380/.628 in just under 400 appearances, Paul Konerko helped, and A.J. Pierzynski (.365/.419/.552) and Joe Crede (.429/.448/.730!) were crazy-good in limited action.

Worst: Boston, easily and surprisingly. Trot Nixon (.278/.388/.400) got on base while accruing about 45% of the plate appearances. Everyone else – Varitek, Lowell, Youkilis, Pena, Hinske, Kapler – was staggeringly awful, combining to hit .195/.266/.324.

Posted by Lucas at 02:10 PM

November 01, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #4 Hitters

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #4 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
M Teixeira	35%	.966	119	.396	107	.570	112	37	15	40	37	44	2
P Nevin	25%	.737	69	.326	88	.411	81	24	7	27	21	34	0
H Blalock	20%	.658	53	.317	86	.341	67	19	2	17	15	11	1
C Lee	18%	.929	111	.382	104	.547	107	18	6	20	12	14	4
The Rest	1%	.750	75	.375	102	.375	74	2	0	0	0	1	0
TEAM	-	.837	91	.360	98	.477	94	100	30	104	85	104	7
AL Average*	-	.879	-	.369	-	.510	-	100	32	117	78	124	0
Team Rank in AL	-	-	10	-	9	-	12	7	8	12	6	4	1

As I wrote back in May, Phil Nevin didn’t earn his cleanup at-bats so much as back into them: Texas wanted some return on its $10 million investment, he hit just well enough in Spring Training to get a chance to play regularly, and, if not him, it’s Blalock or Mench in the #4 spot. Five games after I noted that Texas’s OPS+ at cleanup had actually deteriorated from 2005’s league-worst performance, the Rangers replaced Nevin with Blalock.

Blalock was worse. On June 22nd, he and Nevin had combined to hit .232/.319/.380, good for a lineup-adjusted OPS+ of 62. Sixty-Two! Texas cleanup hitters were on pace for 20 homers and 97 RBI. That may not seem so terrible, but both figures would have ranked dead last in the AL had they held up.

Buck Showalter then moved Michael Young to third and Mark Teixeira to fourth, and Teixeira and Carlos Lee occupied the cleanup spot for the rest of the season. Both hit very well, combining for a .391 OBP, 21 homers and 60 RBI. Lee won’t play in Arlington next year but did his job with the bat and would make an ideal DH.

On the whole, Texas cleanup batters ranked between Baltimore and Tampa Bay in OPS+, not company they would willingly keep.

American League #4 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Boston	.984	127	.416	113	.567	114	105	39	123
Cleveland	.956	125	.411	113	.545	112	112	34	131
Chicago Sox	.971	120	.398	108	.573	112	117	40	130
LA Angels	.902	110	.373	102	.528	108	89	30	123
NY Yankees	.890	107	.389	107	.501	100	121	35	124
Oakland	.878	105	.372	102	.506	102	98	41	136
Toronto	.896	103	.368	100	.528	102	114	41	112
Seattle	.841	97	.344	95	.497	103	99	34	122
Baltimore	.832	93	.364	99	.468	94	79	22	98
Texas	.837	91	.360	98	.477	94	100	30	104
Tampa Bay	.824	90	.344	94	.480	96	88	29	100
Detroit	.805	87	.341	93	.464	95	85	26	113
Minnesota	.764	81	.337	94	.428	87	101	20	107
Kansas City	.755	71	.319	85	.436	86	94	24	113

Best #4 Hitting: Let Manny be Manny. Even with fourteen of his teammates combining to hit a lackluster .267/.337/.412 in 36 games, Boston’s cleanup hitters led the field. Cleveland (Hafner, Martinez, and some Garko) and Chicago (mostly Konerko, a little Thome and Dye) also excelled.

Worst: Royals in a landslide. Emil Brown, Mike Sweeney and Mark Teahen combined for just over one-half of Kansas City’s cleanup appearances and hit roughly equivalent to Texas (.283/.344/.495). The rest (Reggie Sanders, Matt Stairs, assorted flavors) hit .218/.290/.369. Keep in mind that Kaufmann Stadium played very generously to hitters this season.

Posted by Lucas at 06:11 PM

Prelude To Upcoming Reviews

For the second time in three years, Texas succeeded more in preventing runs than scoring them. This isn’t my opinion or statistical trickery. It is fact.

Not coincidentally, Texas had the second-worst collection of 4-5-6 hitters in the American League in 2006:

Rank	Team	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+
12	Kansas City	.775	91	.341	95	.457	95
13	Texas	.737	90	.341	97	.447	93
14	Tampa Bay	.740	89	.321	92	.460	97

In recent years, the popular opinion of the Rangers as an offensive force has become embalmed, mummified, petrified and encased in amber. Just as some catchers ironically earn solid defensive reputations because they can’t hit, Ranger hitters are behemoths because of a lousy rotation.

It simply isn’t true. The Rangers need a bat just as badly as a #2 starter.

Posted by Lucas at 12:56 AM

October 31, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #3 Hitters

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #3 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
M Teixeira	64%	.844	101	.358	100	.486	101	62	18	70	52	84	0
C Lee	17%	.861	104	.357	100	.504	105	24	3	15	8	12	3
M Young	17%	.725	73	.310	87	.415	86	13	3	18	9	22	1
The Rest	1%	1.500	247	.500	139	1.000	207	1	1	2	0	1	0
TEAM	-	.832	98	.351	98	.481	100	100	25	105	69	119	4
AL Average*	-	.840	-	.358	-	.482	-	101	27	103	72	118	6
Team Rank in AL	-	-	7	-	7	-	7	6	6	5	8	6	9

Through June 22nd, Mark Teixeira never left the third spot in the order. After that day’s game, he had six homers and a .425 slugging percentage. Buck Showalter dropped him to fourth, where he soon returned to his expected brilliance. He switched back to third in late August with no ill effects.

As I mentioned in a June 10th column, Teixeira inexplicably flailed against pitchers he faced for the first time in a game. That trend manifested itself even more strongly in the first inning. At the All-Star break, Teixeira batted .243/.317/.284 in the first inning, including no homers and exactly three runs batted in in 82 plate appearances. He did improve in the second half (an odd line of .250/.451/.444: nine hits and twelve walks) but still was nothing special. For the season, he hit .245/.368/.336 in the first and .290/.372/.552 in subsequent innings. He showed more patience in the first (0.35 more pitches per appearance and a 50% higher walk rate) but no power (a David Ecksteinian .091 ISO, two homers in 133 appearances).

Should Showalter have batted him seventh, or started Nevin or Stairs at first and substituted Teixeira in the second inning? Probably overkill. Teixeira had never exhibited this problem in previous years and most likely will return to normal in 2007. That said, it’s an issue worth watching.

Carlos Lee quietly performed to expectations with his bat but probably played his way out of a long-term contract with his passive defense and occasionally cavalier attitude. The Rangers gained no ground on Oakland or even themselves after his acquisition (51-52 pre-trade, 29-30 post).

Relative to his time in the #2 hole, Michael Young struggled while batting third during late June and most of July. It’s only coincidence; he’d often hit third in the past with no loss of performance.

American League #3 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Boston	1.010	142	.404	113	.607	129	124	55	142
Chicago Sox	.976	131	.403	112	.573	119	136	44	123
Minnesota	.914	126	.423	121	.491	106	100	13	101
NY Yankees	.884	115	.393	111	.491	104	115	29	123
Toronto	.882	108	.355	100	.527	108	97	32	109
Cleveland	.820	102	.359	102	.461	100	108	29	104
Texas	.832	98	.351	98	.481	100	100	25	105
Baltimore	.781	89	.344	96	.437	93	103	22	93
Tampa Bay	.777	87	.332	93	.445	94	86	25	99
Kansas City	.779	86	.355	97	.425	89	91	15	91
LA Angels	.758	84	.319	90	.439	95	85	24	89
Seattle	.750	84	.319	90	.431	94	88	21	92
Oakland	.730	79	.331	94	.398	85	86	20	82
Detroit	.715	74	.304	85	.411	89	92	19	86

Best #3 hitting: David Ortiz. No commentary needed.

Worst #3 hitting: NLCS foes Detroit and Oakland anchor the list, proving that titles are won with productive outs, not power. Anyway, Ivan Rodriguez drew over half of his team’s #3 at-bats and showed he no longer belongs in the top half of the order even when batting .300. He, Dmitri Young, Marcus Thames, Craig Monroe and Sean Casey combined for a paltry 19 homers and 31 walks. The rest of the league averaged 27 homers and 76 walks. Oakland’s Milton Bradley handled the spot well but his teammates (mostly Chavez, Kotsay, Crosby[?]) hit .233 and slugged .346.

Posted by Lucas at 09:29 AM

October 27, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #2 Hitters

Check here for stat descriptions. Forgot to mention that "Net SB" equals SB - 2 x CS.

Texas #2 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
M Young	82%	.833	114	.365	105	.468	109	80	11	85	39	74	0
M DeRosa	9%	.753	94	.343	99	.410	95	7	1	4	5	10	0
I Kinsler	7%	.536	41	.291	84	.245	57	5	0	1	6	11	1
The Rest	2%	.543	43	.293	85	.250	58	2	0	0	1	4	0
TEAM	-	.798	105	.356	103	.442	103	94	12	90	51	99	1
AL Average*	-	.777	-	.346	-	.431	-	103	15	83	56	103	3
Team Rank in AL	-	-	6	-	5	-	6	12	10	4	9	7	9

Michael Young lost 29 points of OBP and 54 of slugging in 2006 but still ranked among the best #2 hitters in the AL. Reviewing his last four years, 2005’s .331/.385/.513 may represent his peak, and Texas fans will have to tolerate something like .310/.355/.470 for the next couple of years. Should Young’s 2006 be indicative of his future, he doesn’t quite pan out relative to other #3 hitters. Here’s a fun table of how Young’s overall line (not just batting 2nd) of .314/.356/.459 measures up if he’d batted the entire season in a particular spot in the order:

Pos	L-OPS+	L-obp+	L-slg+
1	108	101	107
2	109	103	106
3	95	99	95
4	87	97	90
5	93	99	94
6	112	109	103
7	115	110	105
8	126	111	115
9	139	117	122

The table doesn’t indicate the best spot in the lineup for Young (“A 139 L-OPS+ from the ninth spot? Let’s bat Young there!”) but it could suggest where he tops out. The table also doesn’t consider other personnel. If the Rangers don’t acquire a big bat to replace Carlos Lee, batting Young third and Teixeira fourth might be optimal (perhaps with Ian Kinsler occupying one of the top two spots).

Mark DeRosa filled the #2 slot adequately. Kinsler and a few others didn’t offer much.

American League #2 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+
Toronto	.853	119	.372	108	.482	111
NY Yankees	.826	116	.381	111	.445	105
Seattle	.800	112	.329	96	.471	115
Texas	.798	105	.356	103	.442	103
Tampa Bay	.793	106	.330	96	.464	110
LA Angels	.783	107	.357	104	.426	103
Chicago Sox	.760	96	.349	101	.411	95
Kansas City	.758	94	.342	97	.416	97
Oakland	.756	99	.340	100	.416	100
Baltimore	.731	91	.331	96	.400	95
Detroit	.731	92	.326	95	.405	98
Minnesota	.726	94	.349	103	.377	91
Cleveland	.721	91	.326	96	.395	96
Boston	.700	84	.334	97	.366	87

Best #2 hitting: Toronto, with former Ranger Frank Catalanatto (.302/.377/.442 in 387 ABs) and Alex Rios (.368/.399/.674 in 144 ABs).

Worst #2 hitting: Red Sox #2 hitters scored an AL-worst 89 runs despite Ortiz and Ramirez batting behind them. Mark Loretta had minimal power but did reach base at a league-average rate (.291/.346/.369). His teammates hit .198/.232/.340 in 91 at-bats.

Posted by Lucas at 07:42 PM

October 24, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #1 Hitters

Time to begin the Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters In Terms Of Lineup And Defensive Positions. As with last year, I’ll start with the #1 hitters.

First, a brief refresher on the stats. You know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.

For Texas’s #1 hitters, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other #1 hitters. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .284/.350/.422. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .351 and a slugging percentage of .431 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages.

Texas #1 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
G Matthews	89%	.868	121	.372	106	.496	115	102	19	79	58	98	-4
B Wilkerson	5%	.565	41	.190	54	.375	87	6	2	5	1	16	1
8 others	6%	.829	110	.341	97	.488	113	7	2	6	3	7	0
TEAM	-	.849	116	.361	103	.489	114	115	23	90	62	121	-3
AL Average	-	.782	-	.351	-	.431	-	109	15	70	65	113	9
Team Rank in AL	-	-	4	-	5	-	3	4	4	2	7	10	13

With free agency looming, Gary Matthews guaranteed over $20 million in future dollars on top of the $2.8 million paid to him by Texas this season. That’s a nice six months. Matthews hit .313 with ample patience and plenty of power batting first for Texas.

To what extent Texas tries to keep him is one of the toughest offseason decisions I can recall. As a center fielder and leadoff hitter, Matthews provided solutions for two problems that have plagued the franchise since I walked to Butler Elementary in Garanimals. Texas has a chance to extend that solution for another three years or so. How nice would that be?

Alas, the downside:

• Matthews is 32 and more likely to decline than to improve or stand ground.
• Most of his amazing 2006 rests on an upsurge in batting average. Matthews hit .313 in ‘06 but only .250 in his previous 2,980 at-bats and never above .275 in any one season. Whereas power and patience are relatively stable from year to year, batting average is quite fickle. His three-year aggregate in Texas -- .285/.349/.468 – seems a more reasonable basis for the future than his ’06 performance.
• How good is his defense, really? Despite his stellar reputation built on several astonishing catches, Win Shares places him only in the middle of the pack among center fielders, and Baseball Prospectus takes an even dimmer view. I’m of the belief that he’s no worse than average defensively, but that’s just a belief. Maybe the highlight-reel catches are masking overall mediocrity. Still, among the potential problems with signing him to a long-term deal, defense ranks as the least worrisome.

Despite those caveats, it’s not unreasonable to expect Matthews to provide average leadoff-hitting and center-field defense during the next three years. Does that equal $8 million per season? When analyzed in a vacuum, no. Considering the thin free-agent market and Texas’s in-house alternatives… maybe yes. The amount of money Matthews eventually receives will almost certainly exceed his worth, but perhaps by a margin small enough as to be shrug-worthy.

Incidentally, in terms of WARP, Gary Matthews did not have the best season by a center fielder in Ranger history. That honor goes to Juan Gonzalez in 1992.

Brad Wilkerson began 2006 as leadoff hitter. His nightmarish tenure contained some of the most inept at-bats I’ve ever seen outside of my softball league. I believe that in 41 plate appearances he struck out 79 times. Wilkerson did right himself once deposited in the #6 or #7 slots until a lingering shoulder problem prematurely ended his season. He may yet find himself atop the Ranger order in 2007 pending full health and agreeable contract negotiations.

American League #1 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	.916	140	.378	109	.538	130	137	29	78
NY Yankees	.848	119	.365	105	.483	114	132	25	91
Toronto	.852	117	.374	107	.478	110	118	21	87
Texas	.849	116	.361	103	.489	114	115	23	90
Tampa Bay	.816	110	.341	98	.475	112	114	25	69
Seattle	.782	108	.369	107	.413	101	112	9	49
Detroit	.765	100	.336	96	.429	104	99	20	73
Kansas City	.775	97	.351	98	.423	99	106	11	69
Boston	.742	93	.348	99	.394	93	108	16	71
Baltimore	.722	88	.335	96	.387	92	95	11	66
Minnesota	.694	84	.336	98	.358	86	94	8	55
Oakland	.685	81	.346	100	.339	81	99	3	54
Chicago Sox	.699	79	.332	94	.368	85	100	4	58
LA Angels	.661	74	.322	92	.338	82	98	5	67

Best #1 hitting: Cleveland by far and almost exclusively in the form of Grady Sizemore.
Worst: Los Angeles (Chone Figgins) and Chicago (mostly Scott Podsednik).

Posted by Lucas at 12:05 PM

October 04, 2006

Stats Ahoy

Baseball Reference already has 2006 stats posted. That was fast. Rangers here.

I'd like to note that, for the second time in three years, Texas had a better OPS+ than ERA+.

UPDATE: Travis Hafner's best comp among hitters through their Age 29 season? Brian Giles.

Posted by Lucas at 07:47 PM

September 01, 2006

Texas Rangers Organizational Tree

Idea ripped off from here, which was ripped off from here.

ACQUIRED IN TRADE

JOAQUIN ARIAS
---- Alex Rodriguez (Major League free agent, signed 2001)
NELSON CRUZ
---- Francisco Cordero
-------- Juan Gonzalez (undrafted free agent, signed 1986)
-------- Danny Patterson (47th round, 1989)
-------- Gregg Zaun (traded for no one, 1998)
---- Kevin Mench (4th round, 1999)
---- Laynce Nix (4th round, 2000)
ADAM EATON
---- Adrian Gonzalez
-------- Ugueth Urbina (Major League free agent, signed 2003)
---- Terrmel Sledge
-------- Alfonso Soriano
------------ Alex Rodriguez (Major League free agent, signed 2001)
---- Chris Young
-------- Einar Diaz
------------ Travis Hafner (31st round, 1996)
------------ Aaron Myette
---------------- Royce Clayton
-------------------- Mark Little (8th round, 1994)
-------------------- Darren Oliver (3rd round, 1988)
-------------------- Fernando Tatis(undrafted free agent, signed 1992)
-------- Justin Echols (11th, 1999)
FRANKIE FRANCISCO
---- Carl Everett
-------- Darren Oliver (3rd round, 1988)
ARMANDO GALARAGGA
---- Alfonso Soriano
-------- Alex Rodriguez (Major League free agent, signed 2001)
FREDDY GUZMAN
---- John Hudgins (3rd round, 2003)
---- Vince Sinisi (2nd round, 2003)
DANIEL HAIGWOOD
---- Fabio Castro
-------- Esteban German [indirectly] (minor-league free agent, signed 2005)
JERRY HAIRSTON
---- Phil Nevin
-------- Chan Ho Park (Major League free agent, signed 2002)
JOHN KORONKA
---- Freddie Bynum
-------- Juan Dominguez (undrafted free agent, signed 1999)
GERALD LAIRD
---- Carlos Pena (1st round, 1998)
---- Mike Venafro (29th round, 1995)
CARLOS LEE
---- Francisco Cordero
-------- Juan Gonzalez (undrafted free agent, signed 1986)
-------- Danny Patterson (47th round, 1989)
-------- Gregg Zaun (traded for no one, 1998)
---- Kevin Mench (4th round, 1999)
---- Laynce Nix (4th round, 2000)
AKINORI OTSUKA
---- Adrian Gonzalez
-------- Ugueth Urbina (Major League free agent, signed 2003)
---- Terrmel Sledge
-------- Alfonso Soriano
------------ Alex Rodriguez (Major League free agent, signed 2001)
---- Chris Young
-------- Einar Diaz
------------ Travis Hafner (31st round, 1996)
------------ Aaron Myette
---------------- Royce Clayton
-------------------- Mark Little (8th round, 1994)
-------------------- Darren Oliver (3rd round, 1988)
-------------------- Fernando Tatis(undrafted free agent, signed 1992)
-------- Justin Echols (11th, 1999)
VICENTE PADILLA
---- Ricardo Rodriguez
-------- Ryan Ludwick
------------ Carlos Pena (1st round, 1998)
------------ Mike Venafro (29th round, 1995)
JOHN RHEINECKER
---- Juan Dominguez (undrafted free agent, signed 1999)
JOSH RUPE
---- Carl Everett
-------- Darren Oliver (3rd round, 1988)
MATT STAIRS
---- Joselo Diaz (minor-league free agent, signed 2006)
ROBINSON TEJEDA
---- David Dellucci (minor-league free agent, signed 2004)
KIP WELLS
---- Jesse Chavez (42nd round, 2002)
BRAD WILKERSON
---- Alfonso Soriano
-------- Alex Rodriguez (Major League free agent, signed 2001)
MICHAEL YOUNG
---- Esteban Loaiza
-------- Warren Morris (5th round,1996)
-------- Todd Van Poppel (minor league free agent, signed 1997)

RANGER LIFERS

OMAR BELTRE (undrafted free agent, signed 2000)
JOAQUIN BENOIT (undrafted free agent, signed 1996)
HANK BLALOCK (3rd round, 1999)
JASON BOTTS (46th round, 1999)
SCOTT FELDMAN (30th round, 2003)
IAN KINSLER (17th round, 2003)
WES LITTLETON (4th round, 2003)
KAMERON LOE (20th round, 2001)
NICK MASSET (8th round, 2000)
DREW MEYER (1st round, 2002)
MARK TEIXEIRA (1st round, 2001)
EDINSON VOLQUEZ (undrafted free agent, signed 2001)
C.J. WILSON (5th round, 2001)

FREE AGENTS

RICK BAUER (minor-league free agent, signed 2006)
ROD BARAJAS (minor-league free agent, signed 2004)
MARK DEROSA (minor-league free agent, signed 2005)
RON MAHAY (minor-league free agent, signed 2003)
KEVIN MILLWOOD (Major League free agent, signed 2006)
GARY MATTHEWS (minor-league free agent, signed 2004)
ERIC YOUNG (minor-league free agent, signed 2006)

Posted by Lucas at 01:08 AM

August 27, 2006

Do I Have To Come Right Out And Say It?

As the Rangers slide further into oblivion, you’ll read plenty about how pitching has doomed them yet again. Whenever the Rangers “underachieve,” to use the owner’s dry description, pitching is automatically blamed. It’s the equivalent of a reflex arc, a synaptic process that doesn’t involve the brain. You touch a hot stove, and you instantaneously pull away. You watch the Rangers lose again, and you (the writer, the fan, the casual observer) instantaneously yell “more pitching!”

To be sure, the Ranger pitching staff is a source of perpetual frustration. The DMN’s Evan Grant rightly focused on would-be savior Adam Eaton’s wearying performance in Saturday night’s 5-3 loss to Oakland and didn’t mention the hitting at all.

However, I think the offense should bear as much or even more blame than the pitching for the Rangers’ present status. It’s decidedly average, certainly not of a quality to carry a team to a division title.

Before the year started, I think most Ranger fans would have expressed something close to the following: “If the pitching can just be okay and the offense does its thing, Texas might win the division.” And in fact, the pitching has been okay. Texas has allowed 4.93 runs per game this season, slightly better than the park-adjusted league average of 5.07.

Unfortunately, the offense has also just been okay. Compared to a park-adjusted league average of 5.17 runs scored per game, the Rangers have scored exactly 5.17. They rank eighth in the American League in OBP+, eighth in SLG+, ninth in Equivalent Average, eighth in Marginal Lineup Value, and eighth in Value Over Replacement Player. Ho hum.

Relative to each other, the offense and pitching are nearly equal in quality. Relative to expectations, I suggest that the offense has been the greater disappointment.

With an average pitching staff, the Rangers needed an offensive effort akin to 1998, when surprising performances from Mike Simms, Roberto Kelly, Luis Alicea and others augmented the expected awesomeness of Pudge, Will Clark and Juan Gonzalez. This season, Texas got its surprises in the form of Gary Matthews, Mark DeRosa, and Ian Kinsler, but, sad to say, the core has underwhelmed. Both Mark Teixeira (despite his recent upsurge) and Michael Young are well off last year’s pace, and Hank Blalock has continued to produce his middling results. As for the others, the departed Kevin Mench appears to have topped out as an average-at-best corner outfielder. Brad Wilkerson played hurt. Phil Nevin and Rod Barajas are replacement-level hitters.

During the last ten games, the Rangers have scored only 33 runs, ten of which were unearned thanks to sloppy defense by their opponents. They’ve batted a pitiful .212/.259/.319. In its last 363 plate appearances, Texas has an OPS of .578. No Major League player with that many appearances has that low of an OPS. Since last Thursday, the entire Ranger offense has batted similarly to Vinny Castilla (.232/.260/.319) and a little worse than Neifi Perez (.247/.261/.328).

Meanwhile, the pitching has surrendered a tolerable 45 runs. Last Sunday’s thrilling comeback against Detroit notwithstanding, Texas has won four of those ten games because of its pitching, not in spite of it. If Jon Daniels upgrades the pitching this offseason, he’s only solved half the problem.

Say it with me now: “More hitting!”

AL Teams Ranked by Runs Scored, Indexed to Park

Rank	Team	Runs Scored	RS+
1	NY YANKEES	4.92	115
2	CLEVELAND	4.90	112
3	CHICAGO SOX	4.99	112
4	BOSTON	5.11	106
5	LA ANGELS	4.75	103
6	DETROIT	4.89	102
7	MINNESOTA	5.00	101
8	TEXAS	5.17	100
9	BALTIMORE	4.87	100
10	TORONTO	5.12	100
11	SEATTLE	4.90	93
12	OAKLAND	5.00	93
13	KANSAS CITY	5.20	88
14	TAMPA BAY	5.08	84

AL Teams Ranked by Runs Allowed, Indexed to Park

Rank	Team	Runs Allowed	RA+
1	DETROIT	3.99	119
2	OAKLAND	4.38	111
3	MINNESOTA	4.41	111
4	TORONTO	4.88	102
5	TEXAS	4.93	102
6	CHICAGO SOX	4.83	101
7	NY YANKEES	4.77	100
8	SEATTLE	4.77	100
9	LA ANGELS	4.68	99
10	BOSTON	5.14	97
11	CLEVELAND	4.99	96
12	TAMPA BAY	5.25	94
13	BALTIMORE	5.50	87
14	KANSAS CITY	5.98	85

Posted by Lucas at 04:58 PM

August 26, 2006

Done

AL West on May 30:

TEX  32-26
OAK  28-31  -4.5
LAA  27-32  -5.5
SEA  28-33  -5.5

AL West since May 30:

OAK  45-24
LAA  40-29  -5.0
TEX  34-38  -12.5
SEA  31-36  -13.0

Here's the 2005 version.

Posted by Lucas at 12:29 AM

August 25, 2006

A Preferable Alternate Reality, Courtesy of ESPN

Posted by Lucas at 12:32 PM

August 15, 2006

Oklahoma Redhawks Scouting Report

I share a Round Rock Express season ticket package with eight others, giving each of us eight games. I had tickets to Friday’s contest against Oklahoma going into the season, and thanks to Round Rock’s incredibly liberal exchange policy, I easily swapped for two more of the four-game series. Unfortunately, John Danks started the one game I didn’t see, so if you’re interested in my opinion of him, well, I’ve got nothing.

I’m not a scout and don’t pretend to carry that skill set. However, last October I briefly conversed with an Austin-based Ranger scout who was also my wife’s history teacher in high school. That discussion imparts a light sheen of reliability on my musings, which are as follows:

Robinson Tejeda had the best stuff of anyone I saw this weekend. Despite his dire results in Arlington this season, Texas clearly had good reason to trade for him. Tejeda’s fastball usually ran between 91-93 and hit 95 on occasion. He struck out ten in five innings. And yet, I was a little underwhelmed. He pitched several hitters “backwards,� using his curve to set up the fastball, but on the whole threw few breaking pitches. He often resembled a high-school pitcher with a one-pitch repertoire, simply daring batters to make contact. That approach suffices against Round Rock’s random assortment of 4A-types but not the Red Sox. Also, the two walks allowed belie his control problems; despite allowing only five baserunners, he threw 98 pitches in five innings. Having said all that, I sincerely hope Texas gives him time to improve. With some refinement, he could dominate Major League hitters.

Fresh off his demotion to AAA, John Koronka stuck out twelve in seven innings. He relied on his changeup much more heavily than usual and to great effect. Koronka allowed two runs, both courtesy of an Eric Bruntlett homer. Bruntlett fouled off several pitches before swatting a pretty good, low-in-the-zone fastball about two inches over the left-center fence.

R.A. Dickey mixed in plenty of fastballs with a knuckleball that remains a work in progress. The knuckler didn’t always flutter, but when it did the Express batters looked foolish. I’d guess that he needs greater variance in speed between the two: his knuckler usually reached 78-79 on the gun while his fastball hit 85-86. As always, Dickey pitched with determination and fielded his position well. Round Rock generously surrendered four outs on the bases during his seven innings.

Kameron Loe surrendered two runs in each of two one-inning stints. On Friday, he allowed three bad-luck singles, all seeing-eye grounders splitting first and second. One run scored on his own wild pickoff move, the other on a sac-fly off of a high fastball that J.R. House narrowly missed hitting to Texarkana. On Sunday, the Express hammered his fastball. Late in the inning Loe relied more on an effective curve. He also threw two wild pitches, though one should have be covered by catcher Jamie Burke. Neither performance will hasten his return to Arlington.

On Friday, shortstop Joaquin Arias made three terrific plays to his right that had the crowd gasping. Arias batted .277 with no extra-base hits or walks during the series. This season, Arias (.271/.302/.372) has done an uncomfortably accurate impersonation of Ramon Nivar’s 2004 (.264/.290/.374). Fortunately, he’s almost four years younger and has time to grow. I mean physically grow: right now he looks like a kid wearing his dad’s jersey.

Drew Meyer started only one game during the series. Is he hurt? If not, the 10th-overall pick of the 2002 draft has apparently fallen behind undrafted 25-year-old Adam Morrissey on the depth chart. In terms of defense, Meyer plays on a different field than his AAA peers. In terms of hitting… not so much. Meyer himself turns 25 at the end of the month.

Posted by Lucas at 07:43 PM

August 12, 2006

Some Pitching Stats

Opponents' batting line for ERA Qualifiers

NAME	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OBP+	SLG+	OPS+
Vicente Padilla	.252	.324	.387	.710	97	89	86
Kevin Millwood	.291	.337	.435	.772	101	100	101
John Koronka	.287	.348	.456	.803	105	104	109

Non-Qualifiers with over 100 batters faced

NAME	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OBP+	SLG+	OPS+
Aki Otsuka	.227	.261	.297	.558	78	68	46
Joaquin Benoit	.216	.315	.319	.634	95	73	68
Rick Bauer	.269	.340	.356	.696	102	81	84
C.J. Wilson	.215	.328	.374	.702	98	86	84
Ron Mahay	.255	.333	.382	.715	100	87	87
Francisco Cordero	.265	.325	.395	.720	98	90	88
Scott Feldman	.270	.333	.405	.738	100	93	93
John Wasdin	.266	.355	.468	.822	107	107	114
Kameron Loe	.317	.359	.486	.845	108	111	119
John Rheinecker	.362	.399	.496	.895	120	114	133

Non-Qualifiers with under 100 batters faced

NAME	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OBP+	SLG+	OPS+
Wes Littleton	.155	.269	.207	.476	81	47	28
Fabio Castro	.200	.351	.233	.585	105	53	59
Bryan Corey	.231	.311	.338	.649	93	77	71
Adam Eaton	.196	.328	.393	.721	98	90	88
Edinson Volquez	.250	.318	.450	.768	95	103	98
A. Alfonseca	.348	.405	.545	.951	122	125	146
Brian Shouse	.316	.350	.632	.982	105	145	150
Robinson Tejeda	.316	.440	.544	.984	132	124	157
Josh Rupe	.385	.415	.590	1.004	125	135	160
Kip Wells	.405	.450	.568	1.018	135	130	165

A league-average Ranger pitcher has an opponents’ OBP of .333 and a slugging percentage of .437. The American League line is .333/.426.

Posted by Lucas at 01:53 PM

Some Hitting Stats

Qualifiers

NAME	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OBP+	SLG+	OPS+
Mark DeRosa	.332	.386	.530	.916	113	118	132
Mark Teixeira	.285	.383	.488	.871	112	109	121
Gary Matthews	.317	.368	.499	.867	108	111	119
Michael Young	.304	.347	.452	.799	102	101	103
Hank Blalock	.290	.347	.432	.779	102	96	98
Brad Wilkerson	.222	.306	.422	.728	90	94	84

Non-Qualifiers

NAME	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OBP+	SLG+	OPS+
Gerald Laird	.333	.364	.549	.912	107	123	129
Carlos Lee	.339	.382	.484	.866	112	108	120
Ian Kinsler	.303	.366	.464	.830	107	104	111
Matt Stairs	.296	.367	.444	.811	108	99	107
Kevin Mench	.284	.338	.459	.797	99	102	102
Phil Nevin	.216	.307	.415	.721	90	93	83
Rod Barajas	.255	.292	.418	.710	86	93	79
Jason Botts	.220	.317	.360	.677	93	80	73
D'Angelo Jimenez	.211	.328	.316	.644	96	71	67
Jerry Hairston	.215	.301	.292	.594	88	65	53
Nelson Cruz	.167	.211	.333	.544	62	74	36
Adrian Brown	.194	.231	.222	.453	68	50	17
Drew Meyer	.214	.214	.214	.429	63	48	11
Laynce Nix	.094	.118	.125	.243	35	28	-37
Pitchers	.000	.067	.000	.067	20	0	-80

Based on a two-year park factor, a league-average Ranger hitter has an OBP of .341 and a slugging percentage of .448. The American League line is .340/.438.

Posted by Lucas at 01:33 PM

August 05, 2006

Who Is Hank Blalock?

Should we abandon the idea of Hank Blalock becoming a great player?

I keep reminding myself that Blalock doesn’t turn 26 until November. We can still use words like “upside” and “potential” around him without fear of reprisal. Sadly, however, the cold facts demonstrate that Blalock has declined steadily since his stellar 2003, to the point of mediocrity and beyond.

Everyone knows his second-half troubles. The DMN’s Gerry Fraley mentioned Blalock’s improved diet and workout regimen in a column last month, but to date they haven’t helped. His 2006 post-All Star break line is .266/.298/.316.

Unfortunately, Blalock’s problems have extended to the season’s early months. His pre-break numbers have declined from 2004’s stellar OPS of .941 to 2005’s adequate .825 to 2006’s vanilla .795. Ignoring his abortive 2002, cutting his career in halves produces the following:

Span	Plate Apps.	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	2B+3B	HR	BB
3/30/03 to 9/15/04	1252	.287	.352	.514	.866	73	59	111
9/16/04 to present	1238	.272	.329	.427	.755	58	39	96
Difference	-	(.015)	(.023)	(.087)	(.111)	-21%	-33%	-13%

Comparing the first half of his career to his second, Blalock’s batting average has fallen by fifteen points, his rate of doubles and triples by 21%, his homer rate by 33%, and his walk rate by 13%.

Worst of all: During the last calendar year, Hank Blalock has batted .265/.318/.391.

Here’s another exercise that illustrates who he was and who he’s become. I compared his batting line (AVG/OBP/SLG) to all MLB regulars during 2003-2006. Summing the squares of the differences between his and his peers’ average, OBP and slugging percentage reveals his closest comparisons. In an effort to keep things simple, I haven’t adjusted for park factors. As a third baseman, Blalock’s batting peers should mostly players on the corners (first and third base, left and right field, plus designated hitter) with fewer up-the-middle types (catcher, second, short, center field). From 2003 to the present, that is the case:

Hank Blalock's Closest Batting Comparisons, 2003-Present

Rank	Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	Corner	Middle
-	Hank Blalock	.279	.340	.471	3B
1	Mike Lowell	.273	.339	.471	3B
2	Aaron Rowand	.282	.337	.463		CF
3	Chad Tracy	.289	.345	.470	1B/3B
4	Ben Broussard	.270	.335	.475	1B/DH
5	Raul Ibanez	.288	.349	.465	COF
6	Mike Piazza	.272	.353	.470		C
7	Adrian Beltre	.274	.328	.477	3B
8	Mike Barrett	.282	.343	.486		C
9	Kevin Mench	.277	.336	.487	COF
10	Juan Rivera	.288	.337	.485	COF

Seven of the top ten comparisons are corner players, but none is a star. The best comparisons are probably Tracy and Rowand, who like Blalock have lived in hitter-friendly parks. Lowell spent much of the last four years in Florida.

Hank Blalock's Closest Batting Comparisons, 2004-Present

Rank	Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	Corner	Middle
-	Hank Blalock	.272	.337	.454	3B
1	Mike Lowell	.272	.335	.451	3B
2	Aubrey Huff	.277	.342	.456	3B/COF
3	Torii Hunter	.271	.338	.461		CF
4	Eric Byrnes	.267	.331	.452		CF
5	Ramon Hernandez	.276	.329	.460		C
6	Craig Biggio	.273	.331	.463		2B
7	Mike Cuddyer	.264	.340	.447	3B/COF
8	Jhonny Peralta	.275	.349	.458		SS
9	Aaron Rowand	.282	.339	.464		CF
10	Geoff Jenkins	.271	.344	.467	COF

From 2004 to present, only four of Blalock’s closest comparisons play the corners. Lowell makes another appearance along with several other players in decline like Aubrey Huff, Craig Biggio and Geoff Jenkins, all of whom are several years older than Blalock.

Hank Blalock's Closest Batting Comparisons, 2005-Present

Rank	Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	Corner	Middle
-	Hank Blalock	.271	.327	.427	3B
1	Orlando Hudson	.274	.327	.429		2B
2	Aaron Rowand	.267	.327	.422		CF
3	Aubrey Huff	.264	.329	.431	3B/COF
4	Damian Miller	.270	.336	.419		C
5	AJ Pierzynski	.284	.331	.429		C
6	Jose Castillo	.268	.315	.418		2B
7	Javy Lopez	.273	.319	.439		C
8	Jose Reyes	.280	.320	.417		SS
9	Ron Belliard	.285	.327	.435		2B
10	Ben Molina	.288	.328	.430		C

Since 2005, just one of Blalock’s ten most similar hitters plays on a corner. Blalock compares most favorably to Orlando Hudson, who supplies most of his value with his glove. During 2006 alone, Blalock’s best comparison is Kansas City’s Emil Brown.

I don’t mean to pile on. I just think that many Ranger fans, me included, have viewed him primarily in terms of his potential rather than what he’s actually done. We keep waiting for the “real” Hank Blalock of 2003 to return, but he continues to drift away. Every week provides more evidence that he can’t hit lefties, can’t hit on the road, and can’t hit after mid-July. His five-year, $15.25 million contract looked like a bargain in 2004. No longer. Texas owes him $10.7 million in 2007-2008.

If he can reverse this trend, starting tomorrow, Texas has a great chance of playing October baseball. If not, management has to consider a change, as it did last offseason.

Posted by Lucas at 09:06 PM

August 03, 2006

40-Man Roster and Organization Depth Chart Updated

The depth chart now includes the low-A Clinton LumberKings. Links are at upper right. Prevous 40-man rosters and draft lists are still old and stale. I hope to revise them this weekend.

Posted by Lucas at 01:38 PM

July 25, 2006

Blalock vs. Hairston

Who would you rather have batting in a meaningful situation: Hank Blalock or Jerry Hairston, Jr.?

It’s not a trick question. In the eighth inning of last night’s 6-2 loss to New York, Texas had runners on first and second with two out. On the mound was righty Kyle Farnsworth. The next spot in the batting order belonged to Hairston. On the bench sat Blalock, who has struggled against lefties and didn’t start against Randy Johnson. Would you pinch-hit for Hairston?

Versus Righties:
Hairston: .238/.304/.310 this season, .255/.335/.360 career.
Blalock: .306/.363/.455 this season, .296/.363/.507 career.

With Runners In Scoring Position, Two Out:
Hairston: .188/.278/.250 this season, .214/.307/.312 career.
Blalock: .404/.469/.456 this season, .302/.399/.470 career.

The Yankees did have lefties Mike Myers and Ron Villone in the bullpen. I can’t remember if either had warmed up, but for the sake of argument, assume both were ready to face Blalock if P.A. Man Chuck Morgan had announced his name to the capacity crowd. Blalock has a wretched line of .206/.277/.318 against lefties this season. Given that, perhaps you’d grit your teeth and reluctantly stick with Hairston. On the other hand…

Blalock versus Myers, career: 3-for-6 with two doubles
Blalock versus Villone, career: 5-for-16 with two doubles (but seven strikeouts)

Blalock has some success against these guys. Stats aside, this situation brings up a philosophical issue. Who do you want batting in this situation: one of your big guns, or a replacement-level player acquired in a salary dump? Blalock has disappointed, to be sure. Instead of becoming The Next George Brett, he may devolve into the next Joe Randa. But regardless of his career path, at this particular point in time he’s an average Major-League hitter, which is more than anyone can say about Hairston. Let the man hit.

Sometimes managers are accused of taking the path of least resistance. What’s odd in this case is that batting Blalock is the easy path. Who would argue? I promise you that Hairston’s mother was sitting on her couch, watching the game and saying “I can’t believe they’re letting my son hit. I mean, I love him more than life itself, but really.�

Texas now has six pinch-hit appearances in 91 games in AL parks. Only three have occurred in a meaningful situation.

1) On April 26, D’Angelo Jimenez pinch-hit for Drew Meyer and led off the bottom of the 10th with Texas down 6-4. He lined out to left.

2) On May 4, Drew Meyer pinch-hit for Brad Wilkerson in the bottom of the 5th with Texas ahead 8-0. If I remember correctly, Wilkerson left the game after hitting the outfield wall making a catch, so this really counts more as a substitution. Meyer did not reach base.

3) On May 10, Showalter removed Adrian Brown for Gary Matthews with Texas down 4-3 in the 8th, two out and the tying run on third. Matthews grounded out.

4) July 4: Righty-swinging Kevin Mench pinch-hit for lefty Brad Wilkerson against lefty closer B.J. Ryan in the ninth inning. Down 3-1 and with one out and runners on first and second, Mench flied out to right.

5) July 13: Freddy Guzman pinch-hit for Gary Matthews in the ninth inning with the Rangers ahead 12-1 over Baltimore. Guzman singled.

6) July 13: Same game as #5. Jerry Hairston pinch-hit for Michael Young in the ninth inning with Texas leading 12-1. Hairston flied out.

Posted by Lucas at 11:14 AM

July 22, 2006

DeRosa Revisited

About one month ago I mentioned Mark DeRosa's highly improbable .406 average on balls in play and conjured an adjusted batting line based on a more reasonable average of .327, still 32 points above his career average to date. How's he doing?

Mark DeRosa	Avg. on Balls In Play	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
DeRosa's actual numbers through June 22	.406	.341	.399	.541	.913
Predicted remainder of season of as June 23	.327	.279	.338	.430	.768
Actual games, June 23 to present	.321	.289	.330	.443	.778

Alas, my impressive prognositcation skills did not extend to my fantasy teams.

Posted by Lucas at 07:36 PM

July 14, 2006

Keeping The Ball In The Park

Stump you friends with this question: which team leads the American League in fewest home runs allowed?

Answer: The Texas Rangers with 82. Detroit ranks second with 84, New York third with 86.

That feat is impressive enough on its own, but it gains even more force when considering the extreme homer-friendliness of The Ballpark. Though it has played surprisingly even this season, The Ballpark remains a terrific place to go yard. Using a weighted-average of two years of data (I won’t bore you with the math), The Ballpark has permitted 2.51 homers per game to the Rangers and their opponents, while road parks have surrendered just 2.08.

Here’s the ranking of AL teams based on a park-adjusted index of home runs allowed. 100 is average, lower is better.

Team	Park Factor for HR	Homers Allowed	HR+
Rangers	1.11	82	73
Yankees	1.07	86	82
Tigers	0.91	85	92
Devil Rays	0.98	93	94
Indians	0.98	94	96
Blue Jays	1.15	114	98
White Sox	1.08	109	100
Angels	0.92	93	101
Twins	0.98	99	102
Athletics	0.90	96	105
Mariners	0.94	101	106
Orioles	1.10	124	109
Red Sox	0.89	109	123
Royals	0.94	125	133

Unfortunately, Texas ranks only eighth in the league in homers hit. As you’d expect, that mediocre effort looks much worse when considering where they play half their games (for hitters, a higher index is better):

Team	Park Factor	Homers Hit	HR+
Red Sox	0.89	115	127
Tigers	0.91	118	125
White Sox	1.08	133	120
Indians	0.98	118	118
Devil Rays	0.98	113	111
Blue Jays	1.15	121	102
Athletics	0.90	95	102
Yankees	1.07	103	96
Mariners	0.94	91	94
Angels	0.92	88	94
Rangers	1.11	101	88
Orioles	1.10	94	81
Twins	0.98	79	80
Royals	0.94	69	72

Posted by Lucas at 06:52 PM

July 11, 2006

Michael Young

Young's coolness quotient has achieved the level at which I'm no longer permitted to speak or write his name. So this is it.

Posted by Lucas at 11:33 PM

July 04, 2006

Benchwarming

Texas has three pinch-hit appearances in 74 games in AL parks:

1) On April 26, D’Angelo Jimenez pinch hit for Drew Meyer in the bottom of the 12th with Texas down 6-4.

2) On May 4, Drew Meyer pinch hit for Brad Wilkerson in the bottom of the 5th with Texas ahead 8-0. If I remember correctly, Wilkerson left the game after hitting the outfield wall making a catch, so this really counts more as a substitution.

3) On May 10, Showalter removed Adrian Brown for Gary Matthews with Texas down 4-3 in the 8th, two out and the tying run on third.

Posted by Lucas at 07:26 PM

June 23, 2006

Is Mark DeRosa For Real?

Had you told me in March that Mark DeRosa would be playing every day and batting fifth, I would have stuck a NAMBLA sticker on your car and drop-kicked your dog into the neighbor’s yard. I’m just that kind of guy.

Yet here it is, mid-June, and not only is DeRosa playing every day and batting fifth, he deserves to. With a line of .341/.399/.514, he trails only Gary Matthews (?!) in OPS among regular and semi-regular Ranger batters. He says he imitates Michael Young’s hitting style. Probably all of us could benefit from imitating Young.

Unfortunately for his long-term success, DeRosa has also been very lucky. A typical players bats just over .300 counting only balls hit into the field of play (that is, minus walks, strikeouts, and homers). Prior to 2006, DeRosa’s average in this respect was .295. This season, it’s .406. That can’t last.

I’m not arguing a DIPS-based theory that batters can’t influence their hit rates on balls in play. Unlike almost all pitchers, many batters appear to have (or lack) the ability to hit balls in play for a consistently high average. Ichiro!, Todd Helton and Bobby Abreu are examples. Overall batting average correlates moderately well to average on balls in play, though there are notable exceptions (Brad Wilkerson, Craig Wilson). Also, a high average on balls in play does not necessarily indicate a great hitter (Alex Sanchez, Willy Tavares).

Irrespective of the extent to which a batter can affect his average on balls in play, DeRosa’s .406 is not tenable. During 2003-2005, 476 batters attained the 501 plate appearances needed to qualify for the batting title. Here’s how they batted on balls in play:

Batters' Average on Balls in Play, 2003-2005
Best	.401
Top 2%	.363
Top 5%	.352
Top 10%	.342
Top 25%	.327
Median	.309
Worst	.230

Ichiro! leads the pack with an average on balls in play of .401, achieved during 2004 when he batted .372 overall. Admirable though his improvement is, DeRosa’s no Ichiro. Even a 54-point drop in average on balls in play would place him among the top 5%.

Let’s say that DeRosa will bat .327 on balls in play for the rest of the season, equivalent to the top 25% among qualifying hitters. Also assume that his homer rate, walk rate, and rate of doubles per hit won’t change. How will he bat the rest of the season, assuming he plays in 80 of the team’s 89 remaining games at his current pace of 4.04 plate appearances per game?

Category	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO
Predicted remainder of season	.279	.338	.430	.768	292	82	29	0	5	26	54
Actual games to date	.341	.399	.514	.913	179	61	22	0	3	16	33
TOTAL	.303	.360	.462	.822	471	143	51	0	8	42	87

Under these assumptions, DeRosa would bat .279/.338/.430, well below his current pace but still far better than his pre-2006 career line of .263/.319/.380. However, a .768 OPS makes him a poor #5 hitter and a no longer an automatic play over Kevin Mench or Brad Wilkerson. The possibility exists that DeRosa will be permitted a lengthy occupation of the five-spot (or higher) while sliding into his usual lukewarm batting performance.

Posted by Lucas at 05:47 PM

June 22, 2006

What's In A Name?

Does Rod Barajas deserve the nickname “Popup?� Per Baseball Prospectus, leaders in percentage of batted balls resulting in a popup (minimum 1.5 plate appearances per game, 302 players qualify)

1. Shane Victorino – 19.6%
2. Marcus Thames – 17.8%
3. Mark Ellis – 16.2%
4. Toby Hall – 16.2%
5. Jerry Hairston – 16.1%
6. Jose Valentin – 15.3%
7. Clint Barmes – 15.2%
8. Rod Barajas – 15.2%

To his credit, Barajas has hit better of late. One decent night will push his OBP over .300 and his slugging percentage over .400, elevating him to Not Bad For A Catcher status. Texas also has 26-year-old backup catcher slugging .568, but that is an apparent irrelevancy.

Posted by Lucas at 09:36 AM

June 10, 2006

Mark Teixeira's Power Outage

Mark Teixeira has a grand total of six homers in sixty games played. 110 Major Leaguers have more. Even traded 1B Adrian Gonzalez has seven, albeit with much worse figures in other categories.

Often reduced power is a symptom of bad hitting overall, but not in Teixeira’s case. He’s hitting a robust .290, walking more often and striking out less than at any time in his career, and is on pace to hit a career-best 51 doubles, which very slightly ameliorates the lack of homers. His ground/fly ratio hasn’t changed. He does have only one HBP, on pace for three, after getting no fewer than ten in any prior season. Is he standing farther from the plate? I don’t know. Teixeira appears just fine except for that stunning 65% drop in his homer rate.

I did find one bizarre and fascinating statistic. Unlike previous seasons, Teixeira has batted very poorly the first time he faces a pitcher:

1st appearance against pitcher	% of Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004-2005	56%	.294	.375	.578	.953
2006	53%	.213	.308	.315	.623

As the team’s #3 hitter, Teixeira always bats in the first inning, and, of course, is facing the starting pitcher for the first time. Late in games he’s almost always facing a reliever. Thus, his newfound problem has resulted in middle-inning brilliance bookended by misery:

2006	% of Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st appearance against Starting Pitcher	22%	.241	.317	.278	.595
2nd-4th appearances against Starting Pitcher	47%	.378	.461	.613	1.074
Appearances against relievers	31%	.191	.306	.342	.648

In sixty first-inning plate appearances, Teixeira has eleven singles, two doubles, no triples or homers, six walks, and exactly two runs batted in. Two! He batted in the #3 slot most of last season, so there’s no issue with acclimation.

As with Wilkerson’s early-season woes, I suspect Teixeira will rebound. In the meantime, his first-inning at-bats deserve careful scrutiny.

Posted by Lucas at 07:15 PM

June 09, 2006

2006 Draft

Ranger 2006 draft choices are listed here. To learn about these players, visit Jamey Newberg here.

Posted by Lucas at 11:38 AM

May 09, 2006

Same As It Ever Was

The 2005 Rangers featured the worst cleanup hitters in the American League. Ranger #4 hitters -- mostly Hank Blalock with a tablespoon of Mark Teixeira and dashes of Alfonso Soriano and Phil Nevin-- ranked 11th in slugging and dead-freaking-last in on-base percentage after adjusting for home park. Though Texas sported a respectable offense overall, Buck Showalter needed to find an upgrade at cleanup.

He found Phil Nevin. Nevin started at DH and in the cleanup spot during intrasquad scrimmages in February, and by mid-March, whatever competition existed for the role had ended. While not an ideal solution, having Nevin at cleanup was defensible for several reasons:

Nevin admitted he sulked his way to a line of .182/.250/.323 after his ’05 trade to Texas. He entered Spring Training emotionally refreshed. Fair enough. (That doesn’t explain away his .237/.287/.379 showing in San Diego during last season, but bear with me.)

In 2004, he batted .289/.368/.492, excellent production for an extremely hitter-unfriendly environment of Petco Park.

No likely batting order would place Nevin lower than sixth. Certainly, Laynce Nix, Rod Barajas, and true rookie Ian Kinsler belonged at the back of the lineup. In addition, Blalock had struggled badly batting cleanup last season and Kevin Mench had backslid to a .469 slugging percentage.

The concept of sunk cost notwithstanding, Texas wanted some return on its $10 million investment.

In retrospect (or facile 20-20 hindsight, if you prefer), Nevin’s establishment as cleanup hitter almost seems preordained. He only needed to avoid flopping during the spring, and he didn’t. Several early homers caught the attention of management and skeptical fans, and despite a late slump he finished at .241/.338/.534. The patience and power had returned, if not the average.

Now, one-fifth into the regular season, Texas is no better off at the cleanup spot than in 2005. 100% of the plate appearances by #4 hitters have accrued to Phil Nevin, who has a line of .242/.333/.455. The cleanup hitters on the other thirteen AL clubs are batting .283/.360/.508. Thus, Nevin is only echoing last year’s frustration:

Ranger Cleanup Hitters	OBP	L-OBP+	SLUG	L-SLUG+	OPS	L-OPS+
2005 (mostly H. Blalock)	.317	90	.445	91	.762	81
2006 (all P. Nevin)	.333	91	.455	87	.788	78

Note: AL run production is up about 3.5% this season.

After a fine start (.278/.369/.557 in April, .295 and 23 RBI with runners on) Nevin has five hits in his last 35 at-bats including one double and no homers. Well, hitters do slump, and condemning one after just 34 games is absurd, so perhaps I should cut him some slack. Unfortunately, the real problem isn’t his slump, it’s his half-decade-long inability to hit right-handers:

YEAR	AVG / OBP / SLUG -- OPS
2002	.268 / .322 / .373 -- .695
2003	.252 / .317 / .356 -- .672
2004	.273 / .337 / .451 -- .787
2005	.253 / .285 / .387 -- .673
2006	.219 / .318 / .417 -- .735
'02-'06	.260 / .319 / .402 -- .721

His frailty against righties wouldn’t cause much dismay except that, ahem, he faces a righty 70% of the time and bats fourth. Nevin hammers lefties (.299/.387/.549 since 2002) but against righties Texas could replace him with Gary Matthews and suffer no ill.

Adam Morris of Lone Star Ball has beat this drum for a while, and he’s right. Texas needs another lefty bat to bolster the offense. Phil Nevin deserves credit for regaining a sizable fraction of his past superiority, but he shouldn’t play every day.

Posted by Lucas at 11:59 PM

May 03, 2006

Oklahoma Game Report

The Rangers’ Triple A affiliate Oklahoma Redhawks played the Round Rock Express on Tuesday night, and yours truly witnessed the games from Section 121, Row 4, Seat 1. A few observations from memory:

I hope I caught John Hudgins on a bad night. Hudgins allowed seven hits, including two homers, and two walks in three innings, and he just didn’t look like someone who could retire a Major League hitter. Against an undisciplined Express lineup (last in the Pacific Coast League in walks and next-to-last in strikeouts), Hudgins tried to keep everything down and succeeded to injurious extent. Far too many pitches crossed the plate ankle-high. The “experienced” Round Rock offense (“batting second: Joe McEwing!”) ignored the low stuff and pounded what Hudgins left in the zone. I don’t recall the radar gun exceeding 88 MPH.

Outfielder-in-training Jason Botts made a genuinely impressive sliding catch near the left-field stands with two out and runners on second and third. The Round Rock pitchers pounded him inside and forced him to hit everything off his wrists. He didn’t strike out but also didn’t reach base.

Vince Sinisi looks smaller than I expected. He roped a fastball to the opposite field, much to the delight of the Rice fans sitting near me, and generally appeared comfortable against AAA opposition.

21-year-old Joaquin Arias weighs 108 pounds and disappears when viewed from the side. Just as advertised: smooth and athletic in the field, very raw at the plate. A February note from the Dallas Morning News speculated as to whether Arias could fill in at shortstop for Texas should Michael Young suffer an injury. I can’t imagine Texas recalling Arias right now.

Justin Hatcher provided the game’s best moment as a ninth-inning pinch hitter when he plastered his first pitch over the left-field fence. Outfielder Luke Scott took one half-hearted step toward the fence and abruptly stopped.

The Redhawks have youth and several decent prospects, while the Express are old and nearly bereft of potential MLB talent. Round Rock’s starting lineup averaged 29 years of age with not a single player under 26. In fact, of the twenty starters in Tuesday’s game (nine hitters and the starting pitcher for each team), the youngest seven play for Oklahoma:

Team	Name	Age	DOB
OKL	Joaquin Arias	21	Sep-84
OKL	Vince Sinisi	24	Nov-81
OKL	Rashad Eldridge	24	Oct-81
OKL	John Hudgins	24	Aug-81
OKL	Nick Trzesniak	25	Nov-80
OKL	Laynce Nix	25	Oct-80
OKL	Jason Botts	25	Jul-80
RRE	Brooks Conrad	26	Jan-80
RRE	Charlton Jimerson	26	Sep-79
RRE	Humberto Quintero	26	Aug-79
OKL	Jace Brewer	26	Jun-79
RRE	Philip Barzilla	27	Jan-79
RRE	Brian Gordon	27	Aug-78
RRE	Luke Scott	27	Jun-78
RRE	Royce Huffman	29	Jan-77
OKL	Erubiel Durazo	31	Jan-75
RRE	Jesse Garcia	32	Sep-73
RRE	Joe McEwing	33	Oct-72
OKL	Jamie Burke	34	Sep-71
RRE	Alan Zinter	37	May-68

Posted by Lucas at 12:30 AM

May 01, 2006

P A N I C ! Re-Revisitied (For The Last Time)

Allow me to repeat myself yet again:

The Rangers have no early tipping point at which time panic is “appropriate;� their starts doesn’t correlate strongly to their finishes until the 25-game mark. By then, the team has broadcasted its strength and weaknesses, if not its eventual record. Texas has been 13-12 or better after 25 games in nineteen season and finished with a winning record in thirteen (68%). Rather unimpressive, actually. Viewed differently, Texas has never finished worse than ten games below .500 after starting 13-12 or better. Thus, a respectable start at least foretells a not-terrible season. Satisfaction is where you find it, Ranger fans.

On the other hand, in the thirteen seasons in which Texas has a losing record after 25 games, they’ve ended with a winning record exactly once. In 1991, Texas began 11-14 and promptly won their next fourteen games. They proceeded to lose eleven of their next twelve but held on for an 85-77 finish. Their second best effort after a losing 25-game start was last year’s 79-83 mark. The other eleven times, Texas never finished better than 75-87.

On April 30th, Texas completes a three-game stand at Cleveland and will have played 25 games, weather permitting. Restrain expressions of hopelessness until then.

13-12 after 25 games, plus another win on Monday night. Go Rangers.

Posted by Lucas at 08:38 PM

April 20, 2006

Francisco Cordero, Supplier of Angst

Francisco Cordero hit bottom as a closer on Wednesday night when he entered the ninth with a 6-4 lead:

Plunked Ichiro! (0-1 count)
Allowed a ferocious double by Jose Lopez (1st pitch)
Allowed a Raul Ibanez sac fly to very deep right (1-0 count)
Allowed a Richie Sexson single to tie the game (2-1 count)
Allowed a Kenji Johjima single to put the winning run at second (1-1 count)

Perhaps for the first time ever, Buck Showalter pulled Cordero with the game still tied in the 9th. Against replacement reliever C.J. Wilson, Carl Everett hit a three-run blast that would have felled a dinosaur.

I don’t wish to downplay Cordero’s recent lack of success. Indeed, I didn’t have a margarita Wednesday night and cursed up a storm during the ninth inning (just ask my wife). However, I would suggest that many fans are calling for Cordero’s head not just because he failed, but because of how he failed. Both Wednesday night’s debacle and last week’s blown save and loss were walk-off losses. (Cordero wasn’t actually on the mound when Texas lost on Wednesday, but he’d might as well have been.)

Walk-off losses resonate. They can define seasons, at least in retrospect. Perhaps Cordero’s implosion will mean little if the Rangers win their next three or so, but if they follow with several more defeats, fans will remember April 19th. Being the pitiful fan that I am, I still remember a June 1997 game in which John Wetteland surrendered four runs to Colorado in 1997 and lost a game Texas led 8-2 in the seventh. The Rangers were 36-30 at the time and one game behind Seattle; the loss initiated a stretch of nine losses in ten games during which Seattle extended its lead to eight games.

As for Cordero himself, the local dailies have noted his lackluster save percentage and increased propensity to blow saves opportunities. Again, not to defend him, but I believe it’s worthwhile to note how infrequently he has served up a gut-wrenching walk-off loss.

Since becoming the full-time closer in August 2003 until this season, Cordero has converted 98 saves and blown 16. Eleven of the blown saves were of one-run leads, four were of two runs, and one was a four-run lead in which Cordero allowed both of Doug Brocail’s runners to score plus two of his own.

On how many of those occasions did Cordero enter the game with the lead, surrender the tying and winning runs, and walk off the field a loser during that inning? Exactly one. On September 13, 2004, Cordero entered the 10th inning at Oakland with a 6-5 lead. He permitted two runs on three walks and a hit and walked off with the goat horns.

Late in 2003 Cordero allowed the tying run in the bottom of the 9th and the winning run in the 10th. He also walked off a loser after entering a tie game in Minnesota in 2003 and conceding a ninth-inning run. But the devastating, blood-roiling act of surrendering the lead and the game without giving teammates an opportunity to come back? Just once in two-plus years. It’s a debatable talent, but Cordero seemingly has a knack for allowing only the tying run. Remarkably, Texas has triumphed in seven of the 16 games in which Cordero blew the save.

This season, of course, Cordero has walked off the mound a loser in Anaheim and effective did so in Seattle. He’s looked no better in non-save situations against Detroit and Oakland.

Should Ranger fans form a posse and run him out of town? I think not, but in any case it’s worth recalling 2002, when Texas parceled the save opportunities to Hideki Irabu, John Rocker, Anthony Telford, and other pitchers of similarly dubious standing. Cordero has pitched very well for several years, and, assuming he’ s healthy, he deserves ample time to recover.

Posted by Lucas at 11:58 PM

April 15, 2006

Brad Wilkerson's Bogus Journey

If you haven’t seen Brad Wilkerson swing a bat this season, you’ve missed quite a spectacle. At times, he looks no better than a random guy pulled out of the stands. He has one walk and 19 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances, and on many of those third strikes he definitely is not swinging for the fences. Rather, he is desperately attempting to make contact, literally flailing at the ball.

The good folks on the television have suggested that Wilkerson is seeing an abnormally high proportion of 0-2 counts. Is this true? In fact, it is painfully true. The following table compares 2002-2005 to 2006 in terms of how often Wilkerson faces a particular count as a percentage of his total plate appearances:

Count or Event	'02-'05	'06
2-0	18%	10%
1-1	45%	51%
0-2	18%	31%
In play after 2 pitches	18%	10%

Relative to his previous four years, this season Wilkerson has faced six more 0-2 counts and four fewer 2-0 counts than normal. For him, like for most hitters, the difference between a 2-0 and an 0-2 count is the entire world:

'02-'05	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	SO%
After 2-0 Count	0.336	0.599	0.646	40%	13%
After 0-2 Count	0.183	0.216	0.305	3%	50%

Or, the difference was the entire world. Unfortunately, so far in 2006 Wilkerson has failed to capitalize on his less frequent positive counts:

Excluding "After 0-2" Counts	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	SO%
'06	0.182	0.206	0.212	3%	35%
'02-'05	0.279	0.405	0.499	17%	19%

Despite his miserable debut as a Ranger, I expect Wilkerson to hit well and for this episode to be largely forgotten by season’s end. For now, Wilkerson personifies the Rangers' 4-7 start.

Posted by Lucas at 02:51 AM

April 04, 2006

"The Rundown" Is Updated

Current and historical 40-man rosters, depth charts for the Rangers down to high-A Bakersfield, and the current status of draft picks back to 1999.

Posted by Lucas at 12:52 PM

February 26, 2006

Money Money Money

Let's take a look at Texas's contracts now that they've signed all their players:

Free Agents, Arbitration-Eligibles, "Locked Up" Players, and Other Commitments:

P Nevin	$10,000,000
M Teixeira	6,400,000
A Rodriguez	6,000,000
K Millwood	6,000,000
A Eaton	4,650,000
V Padilla	4,400,000
F Cordero	4,000,000
B Wilkerson	3,900,000
R Barajas	3,200,000
H Blalock	3,000,000
M Young	3,000,000
K Mench	2,800,000
G Matthews	2,387,500
C Park	2,000,000
A Otsuka	1,750,000
R Mahay	1,100,000
D Dellucci	900,000
J Benoit	750,000
B Shouse	725,000
M Derosa	675,000
J Wasdin	600,000

A total of $68,237,500. Rodriguez and Park aren't with the Rangers any more, of course. Mahay was outrighted last summer.

Known Contracts for Indentured Servants:

R Dickey	$380,000
K Loe	348,770
L Nix	345,260
J Leiscester	332,100
F Francisco	331,500
S Feldman	329,000
E Volquez	329,000
J Rupe	328,000
O Beltre	327,000
F Castro	327,000
J Arias	327,000
A Baldiris	327,000

Unknown Contracts for Indentured Servants with No MLB Experience (Probably at Minimum of $327,000):

Armando Galarraga, Wes Littleton, Ian Kinsler.

Unknown Contracts for Indentured Servants with MLB Experience (Probably a Little Above Minimum):

Juan Dominguez, Erasmo Ramirez, C.J. Wilson, Gerald Laird, Marshall McDougall, Jason Botts.

The "Servants" usually have split contracts: they earn the listed salary while on the 25-man roster and some lesser amount if in the minors.

How does this compare to 2005? Money in millions:

Category	2005	2006	Increase
Guranteed Money	$57.70	$68.24	18%
Opening Day Roster (and DL)	$51.50	$61.50	19%

Posted by Lucas at 12:42 PM

February 22, 2006

Adam Eaton Worries Me

Adam Eaton interviewed for The Ticket in Dallas and expressed his enjoyment at throwing in a pitcher-friendly park such as Petco or now-departed Qualcomm. He noted that pitching in Arlington would require adjustments, primarily in outlook. Focusing on winning, not necessarily hits and runs allowed, would be key. He then said:

Everybody looks at everything else besides the end result, and that’s one thing I’ve kind of been able to do in the past (focusing on wins), for an offense that really didn’t put a whole bunch of runs up for me in the past few years in San Diego… I have a real hard time figuring how or what I’m going to do with run support [in Texas]. I haven’t had that luxury in a long time… [Eight runs] is like a nice two-week span for me at times. There was a time that I would be told, how hard is it to throw a shutout and hit a home run. That was true, you actually had to do that to get a “W” the past few years.

I have several issues with these statements.

1. San Diego does not have a bad offense.

Eaton prefers a pitcher-friendly environment, but he doesn’t acknowledge that it also affects the hitters on his own team. Qualcomm/Petco offers one of the toughest environments for hitters in the Major League. You might have heard that San Diego ranked 27th in runs scored last year, but that means nothing without considering the context of league and park. Supplying that context reveals San Diego has offered an above-average offense for three years running (all numbers per-game):

Year	NL Runs Scored	San Diego Park Factor	Adjusted League-Avg. Runs Scored	San Diego Runs Scored	RS+ *
2003	4.61	0.89	4.10	4.19	102
2004	4.64	0.89	4.13	4.74	115
2005	4.45	0.90	4.01	4.22	105

* Index of runs scored relative to league and park. 100 = average, higher is better.

2. San Diego’s offense often gave Eaton better support than to his rotation mates.

Year	San Diego Runs Scored	Adam Eaton's Run Support	Extra Support For Eaton	RS+ for Eaton
2003	4.19	4.22	0.03	103
2004	4.74	4.64	(0.10)	112
2005	4.22	5.32	1.10	133

Averages can provide a skewed picture; if San Diego scores eighteen runs in one of his starts but none in two others, they’re not really helping him much. Looking at game data reveals that San Diego was never shut out with Eaton on the mound during 2003-2005. San Diego scored only one or two runs in about a third of his starts (12% one run, 21% two runs) but they also scored six or more runs in 35% of his starts.

On the whole, the evidence suggests Eaton received better-than-average run support during 2003-2005.

3. Eaton has a better won-loss record than he’s deserved.

Eaton has a record of 31-31 during the last three years despite RA+s of 95, 85, and 86. He’s a below-average pitcher with an average record. We should all be so fortunate.

Posted by Lucas at 01:11 PM

December 21, 2005

The Rundown Runs Corrections

After reading about how Hideki Matsui would have become a free agent if New York hadn’t resigned him by November 15th, I thought that Japanese imports came to America as free agents with the same status as a Johnny Damon or A.J. Burnett. Wrong. They’re bound to their teams for six MLB season just like everyone else, even though they enter the U.S. market as free agents and have several years of experience. Matsui’s impending free agency was a function of his original contract, not the general system. Thus, Akinora Otsuka will only be arbitration-eligible after 2006 and not a free agent as I’d written yesterday.

Posted by Lucas at 10:12 AM

December 19, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup by Fielding Position

In ten prior entries, I detailed how the Rangers hit relative to the rest of the American League in terms of batting order. The tripartite time-suckers of work, holidays and closing on a house will limit my discussion of batting by fielding position to a couple of entries.

A quick explanation of a few derived statistics. You probably already know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. OPS can mislead since it considers players with a .300 OBP and .500 SLG and those with a .400 OBP and .400 SLG to be equals. They aren't, as an extra point of OBP creates more runs than an extra point of slugging percentage. Therefore, I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, the same type of indices as OPS+ but measuring separately a player’s effectiveness in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

The operative comparison for fielding position is not to the league as a whole but rather other players at the same position. For example, the average AL ballplayer batted .268/.330/.424 in 2005, but an average catcher batted only .256/.313/.392. An average catcher for Texas had to hit .267/.317/.408 because The Ballpark greatly assists hitters.

I use the term “P-OBP+,” P-SLG+” and “P-OPS+” to describe a player’s performance in terms of his fielding position instead of the entire league (P = position). If a Ranger catcher has a slugging percentage of .425, he’d have a plain vanilla SLG+ of 96 but a higher P-SLG+ of 104.

Ranger Offense by Fielding Position

Pos	OPS	BA	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	SB%
C	.725	.256	.303	.423	69	21	76	33	88	0	0%
1B	.936	.297	.378	.558	109	41	136	74	126	4	100%
2B	.830	.270	.314	.515	107	38	107	37	127	31	94%
3B	.745	.261	.317	.429	82	25	92	51	140	1	100%
SS	.891	.328	.380	.510	114	24	95	56	95	5	71%
LF	.850	.268	.336	.514	95	34	89	61	109	5	71%
CF	.698	.241	.298	.400	85	17	73	53	121	11	85%
RF	.737	.235	.305	.433	93	31	88	56	124	5	56%
DH	.756	.244	.330	.427	97	26	69	71	151	4	57%
TEAM	.798	.267	.329	.468	865	260	834	495	1112	67	82%

Rankings vs American League

Pos	OPS+	AVG+	OBP+	SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	SB%
C	7	10	11	6	9	4	6	9	6	9	9
1B	3	3	2	2	1	2	1	4	10	4	1
2B	2	9	12	1	1	1	1	9	12	1	1
3B	8	13	9	9	6	4	3	8	12	13	1
SS	3	2	2	3	2	3	2	7	9	11	9
LF	4	12	9	3	5	2	4	3	11	9	7
CF	12	14	14	11	6	5	6	6	12	10	2
RF	13	14	14	12	4	4	8	6	10	9	11
DH	10	13	9	9	3	6	12	4	14	5	8
TEAM	4	13	10	3	3	1	3	5	14	9	1

Texas first basemen and shortstops ranked second in the American League in P-OBP+. At no other position did they rate better than ninth out of the league's fourteen teams, and they were dead last in CF and RF. As I'd mentioned in prior entries discussing the batting order, the team's seemingly low walk total of 495 actually ranked fifth in the league. Texas batters showed adequate patience in 2005; no position was exceptionally good or bad at drawing walks relative its peers. Where they struggled was getting the bat on the ball. Texas hit .267 in a hitter's park in a league that hit .268. They held off Toronto for the league's worst AVG+ by .0009.

Texas led the league in homers. No position finished worse than sixth. Only their catchers ranked worse than sixth in runs scored, and only the right fielders and designated hitters ranked lower than sixth in RBI. Ranger up-the-middle players (C, 2B, SS, CF) belted exactly 100 homers, fifteen more than runner-up Cleveland. Excluding Texas, the league average was 57.

The Rangers led the league with the most strikeouts. Only their catchers ranked among the top half relative to positional peers.

Ranger Batters By Fielding Position

CATCHER	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
R. Barajas	72%	.771	111	.254	.306	97	.466	114	53	21	60	26	70	0	0
S. Alomar	22%	.644	80	.278	.311	98	.333	82	11	0	14	5	11	0	0
G. Laird	7%	.500	40	.205	.244	77	.256	63	5	0	2	2	7	0	0
1ST BASE	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
M. Teixeira	95%	.955	130	.302	.383	110	.572	120	107	40	133	71	121	4	0
A. Gonzalez	4%	.612	51	.214	.290	84	.321	67	2	1	3	3	4	0	0
Others	1%	.400	0	.200	.200	58	.200	42	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
2ND BASE	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
A. Soriano	95%	.822	114	.269	.311	95	.511	119	101	35	101	33	124	30	2
M. DeRosa	4%	.967	152	.240	.367	112	.600	140	5	3	6	4	2	0	0
Others	0%	1.333	259	.667	.667	203	.667	156	1	0	0	0	1	1	0
3RD BASE	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
H. Blalock	97%	.751	93	.263	.318	95	.432	97	79	25	90	51	130	1	0
Others	3%	.545	40	.227	.227	68	.318	72	3	0	2	0	10	0	0
SHORTSTOP	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
M. Young	96%	.905	137	.332	.385	115	.520	122	111	24	91	55	87	5	2
M. DeRosa	4%	.585	55	.250	.273	81	.313	73	3	0	4	1	8	0	0
LEFT FIELD	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
K. Mench	66%	.848	112	.279	.338	100	.511	112	52	21	57	34	56	3	1
D. Dellucci	28%	.870	116	.231	.332	98	.538	118	37	12	27	25	41	2	1
G. Matthews	3%	1.031	156	.400	.381	113	.650	143	4	1	3	0	4	0	0
J. Botts	3%	.551	45	.235	.316	93	.235	52	2	0	2	2	8	0	0
CENTER FIELD	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
G. Matthews	60%	.729	95	.247	.317	97	.412	98	53	11	40	39	70	7	2
L. Nix	35%	.667	77	.241	.268	82	.399	94	28	6	32	9	45	2	0
Others	5%	.521	44	.154	.290	89	.231	55	4	0	1	5	6	2	0
RIGHT FIELD	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
R. Hidalgo	49%	.730	81	.229	.298	89	.432	92	43	16	43	25	67	1	2
K. Mench	22%	.660	67	.227	.308	92	.352	75	19	4	16	15	11	1	2
G. Matthews	13%	.824	102	.247	.318	95	.506	108	13	5	11	8	16	2	0
M. DeRosa	12%	.783	94	.250	.325	97	.458	97	14	4	8	8	18	1	0
Others	4%	.815	95	.259	.259	77	.556	118	4	2	10	0	12	0	0
DH	% of PA	OPS	P-OPS+	BA	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
D. Dellucci	43%	.877	120	.266	.392	115	.485	105	53	14	27	45	67	2	2
A. Gonzalez	19%	.706	73	.231	.270	79	.436	94	14	5	14	7	31	0	0
P. Nevin	15%	.580	45	.176	.250	73	.330	71	15	3	8	8	27	2	0
C. Allen	7%	.675	70	.286	.318	93	.357	77	4	0	4	2	8	0	1
M. Teixeira	5%	.932	126	.294	.314	92	.618	134	5	3	11	1	3	0	0
M. Young	3%	.659	72	.278	.381	111	.278	60	3	0	0	3	4	0	0
Others	8%	.558	43	.205	.286	84	.273	59	3	1	5	5	11	0	0

Rod Barajas performed admirably on offense and defense, easily earning the $1.8 million that John Hart granted him (because Hart would rather swallow a live beetle than go to arbitration). His 2004 was a mirage: six amazing weeks followed by the usual .230/.270/.360 slop. In 2005 he hit pretty well all season long; not great, but good enough. He hit better on the road (.838 OPS) and after the All-Star break, both highly atypical for a Ranger. I sure didn't see that coming.

Mark Teixeira's 2005 in Ranger single-season history: tenth in slugging percentage, fourth in total bases, tenth in doubles, third in RBI, second in extra-base hits, seventh in times on base.

Alfonso Soriano's OBP of .309 would rate below average even if he were a catcher, the weakest offensive position in the league. Conversely, his .512 slugging percentage would rate well above average even ar first base, the strongest position. In the AL, left fielders bested second basemen by .009 in OBP and .025 in slugging, so Soriano would effectively lose that much value with his bat if he moves to left in 2006. If he can provide merely mediocre defense there as opposed to his usual horror show at second, it's a wash.

The casual fan might judge Blalock on his .263 average with 25 homers and 92 RBI; solid, right? Well, no, he finished ninth in both OBP and slugging relative to his position, so clearly he didn't bat terribly well. But, 92 RBI! Third in the league! Quite so, but on the other hand he also lost .013 of batting average, four doubles, seven homers and 26 walks from his 2004 campaign. Also, relative to other cleanup hitters, he performed exceptionally poorly. But, but, 25 homers by a third baseman! And so forth. Try to avoid these arguments with drunks in bars. (Incidentally, I don't mean to deride casual fans of baseball. I enjoy watching football but instantly nod off when announcers expound upon the intracacies of "Cover 2." As with any pastime or hobby, fans enjoy baseball with varying levels of intensity. Because my enjoyment is intense and my nerdliness* profound, I usually express my love of baseball in spreadsheet form.)

Infielders not named Teixeira, Soriano, Blalock or Young garnered a grand total of 123 plate appearances, of which Mark Derosa had 75.

Pity poor Marshall McDougall, the ostensible backup infielder who batted all of eight times while making two appearances at second base, one at short and five at third.

Gary Matthews didn't quite hit or field well enough to score positively in Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA) or its counterpart in fielding (FRAA) according to Baseball Prospectus. The last Ranger center fielder to do both? Not Tom Goodwin. Not Daryl Hamilton, who really wasn't great as a Ranger, just an improvement on his predecessors. Not, ahem, Juan Gonzalez, who actually came pretty close in 1991-1992. Not Gary Pettis. The answer is Oddibe McDowell, who had a BRAA of +1 and an FRAA of +6 in 1987, while yours truly was surviving the golden years of being old enough to vote but not enough to drink. An unfortunate combination, for having to choose between George the Elder and Michael Dukakis compels alcohol consumption.

Just under one-half of the right-field plate appearances went to Richard Hidalgo, who batted .229/.298/.432 (P-OPS+ of 81) and lost his job (technically he got hurt, but why quibble). His replacements hit a depressingly similar .240/.314/.434 (P-OPS+ of 86).

Designated hitters other than David Dellucci made 375 plate appearances and batted a dire .228/.286/.387 (68 P-OPS+). Yes, DH is where Phil Nevin applied his craft, but Adrian Gonzalez and Chad Allen also floundered when assigned hitting-only duties.

* The extent to which one is a nerd. Can be estimated with calipers, but exact measurement requires a piezometer.

Posted by Lucas at 11:07 PM

December 09, 2005

Oh, What A Difference A Park Makes

Some plain vanilla translations based on 2005 park factors. No adjustments for relative quality of team offense, batting order position, etc.

Alfonso Soriano's 2005 Translated To Washington

Category	As a Ranger	As a National	Difference
AVG	.268	.251	-.017
OBP	.309	.297	-.012
SLUG	.512	.458	-.053
OPS	.821	.755	-.066
AB	637	633	-4
R	107	95	-12
H	171	159	-12
2B	43	43	0
3B	2	2	0
HR	36	28	-8
RBI	104	92	-12
BB	33	37	+4
SO	125	133	+8
SB	30	31	+1

Brad Wilkerson's 2005 Translated To Texas

Category	As a National	As a Ranger	Difference
AVG	.248	.263	+.015
OBP	.351	.355	+.004
SLUG	.405	.440	+.035
OPS	.756	.795	+.039
AB	565	573	+8
R	76	86	+10
H	140	151	+11
2B	42	42	0
3B	7	9	+2
HR	11	14	+3
RBI	57	64	+7
BB	84	76	-8
SO	147	138	-9
SB	8	8	0

Posted by Lucas at 11:25 AM

December 03, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Wrap-Up

Ranger Offense by Position in Batting Order

Pos	OPS	BA	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	SB%
1	.785	.243	.321	.464	122	37	82	76	171	11	79%
2	.906	.326	.385	.520	118	27	88	65	102	4	67%
3	.940	.302	.380	.561	112	40	146	74	121	4	100%
4	.762	.266	.317	.445	84	27	92	47	142	5	100%
5	.829	.265	.321	.508	108	36	111	47	120	25	93%
6	.697	.234	.291	.406	79	24	75	47	98	4	57%
7	.704	.240	.303	.402	76	19	72	51	138	5	83%
8	.801	.268	.328	.474	88	27	89	50	108	5	56%
9	.728	.256	.307	.421	78	23	79	38	112	4	100%
TEAM	.798	.267	.329	.468	865	260	834	495	1112	67	82%

Rankings vs American League

Pos	OPS+	BA+	OBP+	SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	SB%
1	8	14	14	4	3	1	2	1	14	9	3
2	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	14	11
3	2	1	3	2	3	2	2	3	10	10	1
4	14	10	14	11	12	7	8	14	12	8	1
5	4	9	12	4	2	2	2	9	10	1	1
6	13	13	13	11	7	4	8	10	3	10	7
7	12	10	10	11	7	3	9	6	13	9	2
8	2	3	5	1	1	1	1	6	10	8	9
9	8	7	10	6	3	2	2	9	10	12	1
TEAM	4	8	10	3	3	1	3	5	14	9	1

Lessons Learned

The Rangers' 10th-ranked OBP+ overstates their apparent ineffectiveness at reaching base. OBP doesn't vary among teams as much as slugging; Only Boston (105) and Seattle (96) had an OBP+ more than three points removed from the median. Texas had an OBP+ of 99. In essence, Texas batted for average and reached based just slightly worse than the average team.

Having said that, Texas achieved a lineup-adjusted OBP+ of 100 or better from only three spots: #2 (mostly Michael Young), #3 (mostly Mark Teixeira) and #8 (Matthews, Hidalgo [really], Barajas, DeRosa and others). In all of the otherspots, Texas ranked among the bottom five in the league.

Texas ranked among the league's best in hitting for power even after compensating for their friendly home park.

Ranger #1 hitters led the league in walks yet had the worst OBP+ because of a .243 batting average. Hitters not named David Dellucci garnered 44% of the plate appearances and hit .241/.293/.427. Only Seattle's cleanup hitters struck out more than the Rangers' #1 hitters.

Michael Young and Mark Teixeira are forces of nature, and we should respect them.

It pains me to say this, but the absolute worst Ranger hitter based on expectations and batting position was Hank Blalock, who spent most of the season generating outs from the cleanup spot.Against lefties in 2005: .196/.228/.356, seven walks, 53 strikeouts. On the road in 2005: .231/.276/.335, 21 walks, 70 strikeouts, only five of his 25 homers.

Texas drew 495 walks, which sounds low but actually ranked fifth in the league. In 2005, AL teams drew 3.02 walks per nine innings, the lowestsince 1919. I kid you not.

Stump your friends: Which team led the AL in stolen base efficiency and fewest sacrifice flies? The Texas Rangers.

Other Teams

Best L-OPS+	Best L-OBP+	Best L-SLG+
New York #5 (143)	New York #5 (117)	Cleveland #9 (130)
Cleveland #9 (140)	Texas #2 (115)	New York #5 (126)
Texas #2 (139)	New York #6 (114)	Texas #2 (123)
Boston #3 (137)	Boston #3 (114)	Boston #3 (123)
New York #6 (130)	Boston #8 (114)	Boston #4 (120)
Worst L-OPS+	Worst L-OBP+	Worst L-SLG+
Chicago #7 (67)	Chicago #3 (85)	Chicago #1 (77)
Seattle #8 (68)	Chicago #7 (86)	Seattle #8 (80)
Chicago #3 (71)	Seattle #8 (88)	Chicago #7 (81)
Oakland #3 (73)	Seattle #9 (89)	Oakland #3 (81)
Oakland #6 (73)	Oakland #6 (89)	Minnesota #2 (82)

Boston's entire lineup had an L-OBP+ of 102 or better. Their L-OPS+ by spot in the order: 110, 110, 137, 128, 103, 109, 110, 120, 92.

Chicago's #1, #3 and #7 hitters were among the worst in the league.

Detroit's lineup had an L-OBP+under 100 from every spot except #1 (101).

Kansas City's offense resembled the '82-'85 Rangers:really bad, but not quite bad enough to be historical or even interesting.

L-OPS+ for Minnesota's first four spots in the order: 86, 76, 86, 80. The next four spots: 101, 106, 104, 109.

L-OPS+ for New York for all spots: 113, 93 (Tony Womack!), 116, 107, 143, 130, 103, 117, 82.

Oakland's #3 hitters batted .253/.317/.382.Good luck scoring runs with that.

Seattle had Ichiro!, Sexson, and not much else. The Mariners didn't achieve an L-OPS+ above 90 for any other spot in the lineup. Their #8 and #9 hitters combined to "hit" .222/.273/.309.

L-OPS+ for Toronto's first six spots in the order: 90, 90, 76, 85, 91, 90.

Posted by Lucas at 01:10 PM

November 27, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #9 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #9 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #9 Hitters	.309	.381	.690
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.312	.397	.709

Do managers see the last spot in the order as an opportunity to use their "second" leadoff hitters, light-slugging players with respectable on-base skills? The evidence suggests not; plenty of defense-oriented catchers and attenuated middle infielders call the #9 spot home. The AL's #9 batters produced almost identical numbers to previous two spots in the order. Only one team had an OPS+ of above 100 from the bottom of the order. That's to be expected, since good #9 hitters soon find themselves batting higher.

Texas Rangers #9 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.728 / 104	8
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.307 / 98	10
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.421 / 106	6
Runs	78	3
Homers	23	2
RBI	79	2
Walks	38	9
Strikeouts	112	10
Steals	4	12
Steal %	100%	1
(R-HR) %	33%	4

Texas Rangers #9 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
R. Barajas	49%	.751	110	.244	.302	97	.449	113	37	14	40	20	45	0	0
S. Alomar	15%	.519	48	.236	.261	83	.258	65	6	0	12	3	10	0	0
M. DeRosa	11%	.910	155	.283	.377	121	.533	134	14	4	9	8	14	1	0
G. Matthews	7%	.758	114	.250	.333	106	.425	107	9	2	6	5	10	0	0
G. Laird	7%	.627	76	.231	.268	86	.359	90	7	1	4	2	6	0	0
L. Nix	3%	.688	95	.313	.313	100	.375	95	1	0	1	0	2	1	0
Pitchers	3%	.526	47	.211	.211	67	.316	80	0	0	2	0	8	0	0
Other	5%	.970	171	.394	.394	126	.576	145	4	2	5	0	17	2	0

Catchers nabbed just over 71% of the plate appearances for Texas. Barajas resumed his low-average high-slugging gig, while Alomar and Laird didn't do much of anything, I'm afraid. Mark DeRosa enjoyed most of his inexplicable late-season heroics from the #9 spot. The pitchers acquitted themselves. Texas will be hard pressed to replace Chan Ho Park's outstanding work in the batter's box (.400/.400/.400). In keeping with the team philosophy, the pitchers combined for one triple (Kenny Rogers) but no walks. Homers by Richard Hidalgo and David Dellucci comprised much of the surprising success of "Other."

American League #9 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Cleveland	.821	140	1	.338	110	1	.483	130	1
Oakland	.754	118	2	.334	108	3	.420	110	2
Toronto	.749	112	3	.330	106	4	.419	106	5
Tampa Bay	.716	110	4	.314	102	5	.401	107	3
Chicago Sox	.738	107	5	.312	100	8	.426	107	4
LA Angels	.699	107	6	.333	109	2	.367	98	8
Baltimore	.699	105	7	.314	101	7	.385	103	7
Texas	.728	104	8	.307	98	10	.421	106	6
Boston	.660	92	9	.318	102	6	.343	89	10
Detroit	.657	90	10	.287	92	12	.370	98	9
Minnesota	.627	85	11	.303	99	9	.324	86	13
NY Yankees	.629	82	12	.292	94	11	.338	88	11
Kansas City	.597	76	13	.277	90	13	.320	86	12
Seattle	.585	74	14	.272	89	14	.314	85	14

Cleveland's Casey Blake (.264/.328/.511), Jhonny Peralta (.305/.348/.527), and Aaron Boone (.412/.434/.529) hit the cover off the ball batting ninth. Peralta hit everywhere, while Blake and especially Boone struggled in loftier lineup positions. Seattle employed half the planet's catchers and shortstops to grind the offense to a halt in front of Ichiro.

Sarcasm often falls flat on paper, so I'll point out that the sentence about Chan Ho Park was a joke.

Posted by Lucas at 11:14 PM

November 22, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #8 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #8 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #8 Hitters	.313	.394	.707
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.316	.411	.727

AL #8 hitters bested their #7 counterparts by .001 in slugging and on-base percentage. As for Texas, they received exemplary production from the #8 spot and poor production from the #7 spot despite considerable overlap in personnel. I don't see any explanation for it; some of the weaker Ranger hitters just happened to heat up while batting eighth. They trailed only Boston in lineup-adjusted OPS and led the league in runs, RBI and homers.

Texas Rangers #8 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.801 / 119	2
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.328 / 104	5
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.474 / 115	1
Runs	88	1
Homers	27	1
RBI	89	1
Walks	50	6
Strikeouts	108	10
Steals	5	8
Steal %	55%	9
(R-HR) %	33%	3

Texas Rangers #8 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
G. Matthews	31%	.813	122	.227	.338	116	.475	116	28	6	23	17	26	3	2
R. Hidalgo	19%	.879	138	.287	.328	134	.551	134	19	9	19	12	21	1	2
R. Barajas	15%	.716	95	.239	.281	106	.435	106	10	4	13	3	19	0	0
M. DeRosa	11%	.621	71	.247	.278	84	.343	84	7	2	7	4	15	0	0
L. Nix	5%	.935	154	.212	.355	141	.581	141	3	2	6	0	3	0	0
S. Alomar	5%	.789	119	.343	.375	101	.414	101	4	0	2	2	2	0	0
K. Mench	5%	1.080	192	.138	.400	166	.680	166	5	3	9	5	6	0	0
J. Botts	3%	.620	77	.231	.353	65	.267	65	2	0	3	2	6	0	0
D. Dellucci	3%	1.104	201	.242	.438	162	.667	162	5	1	3	4	3	1	0
Other	5%	.709	95	.281	.303	99	.406	99	5	0	4	1	7	0	0

Hidalgo batted .287/.328/.551 in the eighth position, .204/.264/.343 everywhere else. What did I have to say about him back in March?

Plate Appearances: 600. Batting Average: .265. Runs: 85. Homers: 27. RBI: 85. Steals: 5. On-base Percentage: .340. Slugging Percentage: .500. Upside: Moderate. Hidalgo batted .310 with good patience just two years ago. Downside: High. He batted .239 with no patience just last year, and .235 three years ago. Injury history: Murky. Hidalgo hasn’t reached 600 plate appearances in five years because of a variety of minor injuries.

Meet the most difficult player to project in Major League Baseball. In addition to his seemingly randomly generated stats, he has surpassed 600 plate appearances only once in his career and averaged 568 over the last five years, so my prediction of 600 might be slightly generous. I think potential owners should pretend his unparalleled 200 season (.314-118-44-122-13) never happened, as he’s never come close to repeating it. Take out that season and what does he offer? An erratic batting average, 70-90 runs and RBI, never more than 28 homers, a small handful of steals. In a ten-team mixed league, he's a generic outfielder. Hidalgo has considerable upside moving to Arlington, but remember that he spent much of career in hitter-friendly Enron/Minute Maid Park.... An intrepid owner could pass on Hidalgo, draft Mench several rounds later, and get essentially the same production."

The Ranger Rundown: your source for wishy-washy, caveat-laden quasi-predictions.

American League #8 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Boston	.782	120	1	.359	114	1	.422	106	4
Texas	.801	119	2	.328	104	5	.474	115	1
NY Yankees	.776	117	3	.341	108	2	.435	109	2
Minnesota	.730	109	4	.326	105	3	.404	104	6
Oakland	.735	107	5	.312	99	9	.423	107	3
LA Angels	.721	106	6	.314	101	7	.406	105	5
Baltimore	.716	105	7	.327	104	4	.389	101	7
Toronto	.725	101	8	.323	102	6	.402	99	9
Tampa Bay	.677	95	9	.309	100	8	.369	96	11
Chicago Sox	.711	95	10	.302	96	11	.409	100	8
Cleveland	.673	94	11	.300	97	10	.373	97	10
Detroit	.643	82	12	.290	92	12	.353	90	13
Kansas City	.634	82	13	.280	90	13	.354	92	12
Seattle	.578	68	14	.273	88	14	.305	80	14

Boston, mostly in the form of Bill Mueller, squeaked past Texas in L-OPS+ with a substantially higher OBP. Seattle's loathsome variety pack of Yuniesky Betancourt, Miguel Olivo, Mike Morse, Jose Lopez, Willie Bloomquist, and sixteen(!) others provided some of the worst hitting in baseball.

Posted by Lucas at 09:01 AM

November 17, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #7 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #7 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #7 Hitters	.312	.393	.705
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.315	.410	.725

Even the better-hitting teams rarely have such a thing as an "everyday #7 hitter." Like the eighth and ninth spots, the #7 spot is usually filled with youngsters of varying promise, substitutes, and regulars who just don't hit well. Indeed, in 2005 the difference in OPS between the league's #7, #8 and #9 hitters was only .015.

The Rangers didn't have an outright depressing performance from the #7 spot as they did at cleanup and #6, but they certainly didn't hit well. Their batting average of .240 corrupted respectable totals in homers and walks.

Texas Rangers #7 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.704 / 92	12
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.303 / 96	10
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.402 / 98	11
Runs	76	7
Homers	19	3
RBI	72	9
Walks	51	6
Strikeouts	138	13
Steals	5	9
Steal %	83%	2
(R-HR) %	32%	6

Texas Rangers #7 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
L. Nix	21%	.687	87	.227	.262	83	.424	104	17	4	19	7	29	1	0
K. Mench	16%	.791	120	.287	.376	119	.415	101	15	2	10	12	11	0	0
A. Gonzalez	15%	.714	93	.239	.258	82	.457	112	10	4	13	3	27	0	0
R. Hidalgo	13%	.727	100	.247	.307	97	.420	103	10	4	13	4	18	0	0
G. Matthews	11%	.540	53	.212	.297	94	.242	59	8	0	3	8	17	3	0
R. Barajas	6%	1.080	193	.343	.395	125	.686	168	6	3	7	3	6	0	0
P. Nevin	5%	.622	69	.138	.242	77	.379	93	4	2	4	4	11	1	0
C. Allen	4%	.490	38	.231	.259	82	.231	56	2	0	1	1	8	0	1
Other	6%	.723	103	.242	.359	114	.364	89	3	0	2	6	7	0	0

Laynce Nix and Adrian Gonzalez both spent just over one-half of their lackluster seasons batting seventh. Mench hit very well here, and Richard Hidalgo partially compensated for his nightly displays of agony in the #5 and #6 slots. Texas used a not-atypical fifteen batters in this slot in the lineup.

American League #7 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Tampa Bay	.764	120	1	.341	110	1	.424	110	1
Boston	.743	110	2	.333	106	4	.410	104	6
Cleveland	.711	105	3	.302	97	9	.410	107	2
Toronto	.733	104	4	.338	107	2	.395	97	11
Oakland	.720	104	5	.327	104	5	.393	100	9
Minnesota	.713	104	6	.318	103	6	.395	102	7
Kansas City	.711	104	7	.309	99	7	.401	105	4
NY Yankees	.719	103	8	.335	107	3	.384	97	12
Detroit	.718	103	9	.305	97	10	.413	106	3
Baltimore	.707	102	10	.307	98	8	.401	104	5
Texas	.704	94	11	.303	96	12	.402	98	10
LA Angels	.678	94	12	.285	92	13	.393	102	8
Seattle	.646	88	13	.300	97	11	.346	91	13
Chicago Sox	.604	67	14	.271	86	14	.333	81	14

The AL's best #7 hitters belonged to Tampa Bay, a mishmash of mostly improbable performances from Alex Gonzalez, Nick Green, Damon Hollins, Jonny Gomes, Travis Lee and Toby Hall. Way, way down at the other end are the Chicago White Sox, who endured the out-rific fun of A.J. Pierzynski, Aaron Rowand, Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Timo Perez, and Chris Widger.

Posted by Lucas at 11:17 PM

November 13, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #6 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #6 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #6 Hitters	.322	.421	.743
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.326	.439	.764

Many managers begin to have trouble filling out their lineups once the six-spot comes up. Known as a slugger's position, AL #6 hitters actually trailed the league slugging percentage average by .003. The Rangers had surprisingly difficulty getting respectable production from this spot in the order. Texas had by far the worst combination of #4 and #6 hitters in the AL, downright bizarre considering they had a good offense on the whole.

Discerning fans might say remember that Kevin Mench spent much of the season batting sixth and had a passable season, though not the breakout performance hoped for. Mench, alas, was not the problem.

Texas Rangers #6 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.697 / 82	13
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.291 / 89	13
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.406 / 92	11
Runs	79	7
Homers	24	4
RBI	75	8
Walks	47	10
Strikeouts	98	3
Steals	4	10
Steal %	57%	7
(R-HR) %	32%	4

Texas Rangers #6 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
K. Mench	56%	.791	105	.265	.312	96	.479	109	43	17	49	22	45	4	3
R. Hidalgo	10%	.442	19	.161	.232	71	.210	48	5	0	2	6	15	0	0
L. Nix	7%	.468	25	.196	.229	70	.239	54	7	0	6	2	10	0	0
P. Nevin	7%	.439	19	.182	.234	72	.205	47	6	0	2	2	11	0	0
H. Blalock	6%	.514	30	.162	.162	50	.351	80	4	2	6	0	5	0	0
A. Gonzalez	6%	.734	92	.222	.317	97	.417	95	5	2	3	5	5	0	0
G. Matthews	4%	.813	112	.280	.333	102	.480	109	3	1	2	2	3	0	0
Other	4%	.925	140	.200	.375	115	.550	125	6	2	5	8	4	0	0

While batting sixth, Mench played like a slower version of Alfonso Soriano, not reaching base steadily but slugging enough to compensate. (Mench unfortunately also ranked among the worst in baseball at hitting with runners in scoring position.) The real problem was five other gentlemen who acquired just over one-third of the plate appearances in the #6 spot. Messieurs Hidalgo, Nix, Nevin, Blalock and Gonzalez combined to hit .182/.233/.271 with one homer per sixty at-bats. That's an L-OPS+ of 33 and an OPS of 35. Steve Carlton had a career OPS+ of 33.

Texas's #4 and #6 batters combined to hit .250/.304/.426; their aggregate L-OPS+ of 80 was easily, very easily, the worst in the American League.

American League #6 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
NY Yankees	.861	130	1	.370	114	1	.491	115	1
Cleveland	.817	123	2	.349	109	2	.468	114	2
Chicago Sox	.832	116	3	.335	103	5	.498	113	3
Boston	.782	109	4	.342	106	3	.440	104	6
Minnesota	.757	106	5	.330	103	4	.427	102	7
Detroit	.764	104	6	.311	96	11	.453	108	4
Baltimore	.729	97	7	.300	93	12	.429	104	5
Tampa Bay	.717	96	8	.310	97	9	.407	99	8
Kansas City	.708	94	9	.324	101	8	.383	93	10
Seattle	.689	91	10	.323	101	7	.366	90	12
LA Angels	.697	90	11	.309	97	10	.388	94	9
Toronto	.716	90	12	.329	101	6	.386	89	13
Texas	.697	82	13	.291	89	13	.406	92	11
Oakland	.642	73	14	.287	89	14	.356	85	14

Jason Giambi resuscitated his career and Tino Martinez enjoyed part of his wild ten-homer May while batting sixth. At the other end of the spectrum, Oakland fans looked in horror upon the inefficient fivesome of Scott Hatteberg, Jay Payton, Bobby Kielty, Dan Johnson and Eric Byrnes.

Posted by Lucas at 10:27 PM

November 11, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #5 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #5 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #5 Hitters	.338	.452	.790
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.342	.471	.813

The league's #5 hitters have the third highest OPS in the league. Not until the #6 spot does the quality really decline. For the Rangers, the question is whether Alfonso Soriano performed well in the #5 position as opposed to his preferred location atop the order.

Texas Rangers #5 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.829 / 102	4
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.321 / 94	12
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.508 / 108	4
Runs	108	2
Homers	36	2
RBI	111	2
Walks	47	9
Strikeouts	120	10
Steals	25	1
Steal %	93%	1
(R-HR) %	38%	1

Texas Rangers #5 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
A. Soriano	76%	.838	103	.270	.315	92	.523	111	82	30	93	27	93	24	2
R. Hidalgo	8%	.609	50	.192	.263	77	.346	73	8	2	7	4	16	0	0
K. Mench	8%	.810	101	.267	.365	107	.444	94	4	1	2	7	2	0	0
D. Dellucci	5%	1.100	171	.333	.471	138	.630	134	11	2	4	7	5	1	0
Other	3%	.828	100	.238	.304	89	.524	111	3	1	5	2	4	0	0

Soriano produced to expectations, reaching base consderably below the park-adjusted league average but compensating with a thunderous stick. He also personally stole more bases from the #5 spot than any other team's players combined. I haven't done any research, but I'd guess that speed in the #5 spot comes in quite handy as it provides the later, lesser hitters to drive him in with just one single. Hidalgo flopped here (as elsewhere), Mench batted capably, and Dellucci spent a week here early in the season while inhabiting Jason Giambi's younger, healthier body.

Would Soriano have reached base at the league average anywhere else in the lineup? He would not. Even batting ninth he'd have an L-OBP+ of 99. In his favor, he'd also have an L-SLG+ of at least 103 at any lineup spot. Soriano is what he is. Better to bat him fifth than first or third, where he spent most of 2004.

American League #5 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
NY Yankees	.974	143	1	.399	117	1	.575	126	1
Detroit	.834	110	2	.334	98	9	.500	111	2
Boston	.803	103	3	.363	107	2	.440	96	9
Texas	.829	101	4	.321	94	12	.508	108	3
Minnesota	.787	101	5	.336	100	6	.450	101	5
Baltimore	.784	100	6	.337	100	8	.447	101	4
Cleveland	.774	100	7	.338	101	5	.436	99	7
Tampa Bay	.776	99	8	.335	100	7	.441	99	6
Oakland	.764	95	9	.357	105	3	.407	90	13
Kansas City	.747	92	10	.326	96	10	.422	96	11
Chicago Sox	.781	92	11	.329	96	11	.451	96	10
Seattle	.744	92	12	.312	93	13	.433	99	8
Toronto	.765	91	13	.344	101	4	.421	90	14
LA Angels	.707	82	14	.306	91	14	.402	90	12

New York's Hideki Matsui spent just over half the season in the five hole and batted .333/.397/.557. Alex Rodriguez played 41 games there and batted, ahem, .347/.461/.728. Steve Finley, Juan Rivera and Darin Erstad accounted for most of LA's middle-of-the-order wretchedness. Only Bengie Molina managed to hit well over a decent number of plate appearances.

Posted by Lucas at 08:36 PM

Best satire since Gulliver's Travels

From the LAist , on LA's search for a general manager:

John Hart, who was the architect of the Texas Rangers revival, would be a great fit. He has the ability to discover and develop talented stars like Mark Teixeira, Hank Blaylock [sic] and Michael Young and the craftiness to make great moves such as the trade to get All-Star Alfonso Soriano for amazing but super expensive Alex Rodriguez, a move that has been regarded as the one that turned the Rangers from also-rans to AL West contenders. It is that type of foresight and knowledge the Dodgers need to return to competitiveness in a very winnable NL West.

Posted by Lucas at 05:41 PM

November 08, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #4 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #4 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #4 Hitters	.346	.471	.817
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.350	.491	.841

AL #4 hitters had the highest on-base percentage and slugging percentage of any spot in the order.

Texas Rangers #4 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.762 / 81	14
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.317 / 90	14
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.445 / 91	11
Runs	84	12
Homers	27	7
RBI	92	8
Walks	47	14
Strikeouts	142	12
Steals	5	8
Steal %	100%	1
(R-HR) %	28%	13

Would you believe that the Rangers had the worst cleanup hitting in the American League in 2005? At best, Texas tied with Minnesota for that distinction. Texas #4 hitters were dead last in OPS+ and OBP+ (adjusted for home field), last in walks, twelfth in strikeouts, twelfth in runs scored, and eighth in RBI (with 92, only two more than the next-to-last Orioles).

Texas Rangers #4 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
H. Blalock	76%	.755	80	.273	.323	92	.432	88	60	18	71	36	107	1	0
M. Teixeira	14%	.812	91	.253	.317	91	.495	101	14	6	14	7	16	1	0
A. Soriano	5%	.682	59	.216	.250	71	.432	88	3	2	3	2	11	2	0
P. Nevin	4%	.808	90	.250	.308	88	.500	102	5	1	2	2	6	1	0
Other	1%	.857	98	.286	.286	82	.571	116	2	0	2	0	2	0	0

Hank Blalock rarely has hit well against lefties or on the road, but in 2005 he floundered against both: .231/.276/.335 away from Arlington, .196/.228/.356 vs. lefties (including just seven walks and 53 strikeouts) . He also exhibited another sharp second-half decline (.236/.283/.375). Thus, in 2005 he was an effective hitter only at home, against righties, and prior to mid-July. During the other 125 games, he struggled. Showalter and company have a serious problem if Blalock doesn't improve. Texas benched him against lefties during most of 2003 and might face the unwelcome prospect of doing so again in 2006.

Blalock wasn't entirely responsible for the gloomy production from the #4 slot. Mark Teixeira began the season batting cleanup and started slowly, while Soriano and Nevin offered little support.

American League #4 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Boston	.957	130	1	.377	108	1	.580	122	1
Cleveland	.906	124	2	.363	106	4	.543	118	2
Seattle	.889	121	3	.361	105	5	.528	116	3
Chicago Sox	.912	117	4	.376	107	2	.536	109	4
NY Yankees	.861	109	5	.370	106	3	.491	103	7
LA Angels	.840	108	6	.352	103	6	.488	105	5
Oakland	.835	103	7	.343	99	9	.492	104	6
Detroit	.797	96	8	.348	100	8	.449	96	9
Baltimore	.791	95	9	.333	96	12	.458	99	8
Kansas City	.777	94	10	.353	102	7	.424	92	10
Tampa Bay	.748	87	11	.334	97	10	.414	90	14
Toronto	.777	87	12	.338	97	11	.439	90	13
Minnesota	.736	82	13	.315	92	13	.421	90	12
Texas	.762	81	14	.317	90	14	.445	91	11

Seattle and Chicago had weak offenses with excellent cleanup hitting, courtesy mostly of Richie Sexson and Paul Konerko. Unsurprisingly, Boston's Manny Ramirez showed up the competition.

Posted by Lucas at 08:13 PM

November 07, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #3 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #3 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #3 Hitters	.340	.461	.801
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.344	.480	.824

The average AL team had an OPS+ of 115 from the #3 spot. The last table in this article reveals a strong correlation between a team's #3 hitters and its overall performance. With the exceptions of Kansas City and Oakland, the rankings of #3 hitters by OPS+ closely resemble each team's runs scored.

Texas Rangers #3 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.940 / 127	2
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.380 / 111	3
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.561 / 117	2
Runs	112	3
Homers	40	2
RBI	146	2
Walks	74	3
Strikeouts	121	10
Steals	4	10
Steal %	100%	1
(R-HR) %	30%	4

Texas Rangers #3 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Mark Teixeira	85%	.978	136	.310	.390	113	.588	123	98	36	130	65	108	3	0
Michael Young	15%	.760	86	.271	.333	97	.427	89	13	2	160	9	11	1	0
Other	1%	.000	-100	.000	.000	0	.000	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0

Texas ranked second or third among the AL's #3 hitters in all the major hitting categories. All of the top rankings belong to Boston's David Ortiz. I believe the Rangers will accept Mark Teixeira's line of .310/.390/.588 as a consolation prize.

American League #3 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Boston	.976	141	1	.395	115	1	.581	125	1
Texas	.940	127	2	.380	110	3	.561	117	2
NY Yankees	.882	119	3	.381	112	2	.501	107	5
Baltimore	.855	114	4	.343	101	8	.513	114	3
Cleveland	.833	112	5	.360	107	4	.472	105	7
Kansas City	.820	107	6	.344	101	7	.476	106	6
LA Angels	.817	107	7	.349	104	5	.469	103	9
Tampa Bay	.818	105	8	.321	95	11	.497	110	4
Detroit	.817	103	9	.337	99	10	.480	105	8
Seattle	.746	91	10	.336	99	9	.410	92	10
Minnesota	.736	88	11	.349	103	6	.387	85	13
Toronto	.732	79	12	.311	91	13	.421	88	11
Oakland	.699	76	13	.317	93	12	.382	83	14
Chicago Sox	.715	73	14	.296	86	14	.419	87	12

Yes, the World Champion Chicago White Sox had the worst #1 hitters and the worst #3 hitters in the American League. Carl Everett (.249/.312/.429) and Aaron Rowand (.266/.313/.410) were the primary culprits. The bottom four teams had a sub-100 OPS+ compared to the entire league, not just other #3 hitters.

Posted by Lucas at 08:05 AM

November 06, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #2 Hitters

Review of #1 hitters and explanation of stats here.

American League #2 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #2 Hitters	.330	.405	.735
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.334	.422	.756

A good #2 hitter is hard to find. The American League's #2 hitters reached based less often than #1 hitters (.330 to .345) and even slugged at a lower rate (.405 to .417). Were AL managers too insistent on placing a traditional, runner-advancing type in the #2 slot at the expense of on-base skills? I would have expected the talent-rich Yankees to have among the best #2 hitters in the AL, but in fact Joe Torre doled out most of the plate appearances to the green Robinson Cano and the execrable Tony Womack.

I'm not President of the Buck Showalter Fan Club (I'm not even a member), but I give him credit for solving a lineup problem that plagued many teams. About three weeks into the season, he stuck one of the team's two best hitters into the #2 slot and left him there.

Texas Rangers #2 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.906 / 139	1
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.385 / 115	1
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.520 / 123	1
Runs	118	2
Homers	27	1
RBI	88	2
Walks	65	2
Strikeouts	102	4
Steals	4	14
Steal %	67%	11
(R-HR) %	35%	8

Texas Rangers #2 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Michael Young	83%	.922	143	.341	.394	118	.528	125	101	21	75	49	80	4	2
Hank Blalock	14%	.779	107	.244	.346	104	.433	103	11	4	10	14	17	0	0
Other	3%	1.015	162	.273	.333	100	.682	162	6	2	3	2	5	0	0

All hail Michael Young! Young slugged .528 and provided the badly needed on-base skills missing from the #1 slot (.321 OBP). Texas trailed the league in steals and was the only team in the league without a sacrifice bunt from the #2 slot. As I've discussed earlier, bunting is a situational strategy, not just something a team should do in imitation of a horrible yet playoff-bound NL offense. Perhaps Texas faced some situations this season in which bunting from the #2 slot was the optimal strategy, but I doubt the number exceeded five or so.

American League #2 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Texas	0.906	139	1	0.385	115	1	0.520	123	1
Tampa Bay	0.776	115	2	0.352	108	2	0.424	107	3
Cleveland	0.776	114	3	0.326	100	7	0.450	114	2
Boston	0.774	110	4	0.352	106	3	0.422	103	5
Detroit	0.742	101	5	0.317	96	12	0.425	106	4
Chicago Sox	0.757	101	6	0.335	101	5	0.422	100	6
Oakland	0.736	100	7	0.333	101	6	0.403	100	7
LA Angels	0.705	95	8	0.331	101	4	0.374	94	11
NY Yankees	0.716	93	9	0.317	96	11	0.399	97	9
Baltimore	0.699	92	10	0.306	93	14	0.393	99	8
Seattle	0.684	90	11	0.315	96	10	0.369	94	10
Toronto	0.712	90	12	0.325	98	8	0.387	92	12
Kansas City	0.664	84	13	0.317	96	9	0.347	88	13
Minnesota	0.635	76	14	0.307	94	13	0.328	82	14

Texas destroyed the competition among #2 hitters. Second-place Tampa Bay trailed Texas in OBP by .033, and no team came within 70 points of Texas's .520 slugging percentage. Minnesota makes another appearance with the worst #2 hitters. "Offensive force" Nick Punto, Luis Rodriguez, Jason Bartlett and Juan Castro were the main perpetrators.

Posted by Lucas at 01:00 PM

November 03, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #1 Hitters

I’ll review the Ranger hitters in terms of position and spot in the lineup during the next few weeks. Today, the #1 hitters.

Before I delve into the Rangers, please allow a quick explanation of a few derived statistics. You probably already know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. OPS can mislead since it considers players with a .300 OBP and .500 SLG and those with a .400 OBP and .400 SLG to be equals. Therefore, I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, the same type of indices as OPS+ but measuring separately a player’s effectiveness in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

The operative comparison for batting position is not to the league as a whole but rather the league’s other #1 hitters, who reach base more often but hit with less power than the rest of the league. An average #1 hitter for Texas must have an OBP of .349, fifteen points higher than the team as a whole.

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League	.330	.424	.754
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.334	.442	.776

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
AL #1 Hitters	.345	.417	.762
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.349	.434	.783

I use the term “L-OBP+,” L-SLG+” and “L-OPS+” to describe a player’s performance in terms of his spot in the batting order instead of the entire league (L = lineup). If a Ranger #1 hitter has an OBP of .349, he’d have a plain vanilla OBP+ of 104 but an L-OBP+ of just 100.

Texas Rangers #1 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.785 / 99	8
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.321 / 92	14
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.464 / 107	4
Runs	122	3
Homers	37	1
RBI	82	2
Walks	76	1
Strikeouts	171	14
Steals	11	9
Steal %	71%	3
(R-HR) %	41%	4

Overall, their results are satisfactory if the end justifies the means, as they were third in runs scored, only eight behind league-leading Boston. No other team approached Texas’s 37 homers. Cleveland was second with 20, and the average team hit 14. Texas #1 hitters didn’t run very often but also didn’t run into many outs.

On the downside, they had the worst L-OBP+ in the league. In terms of raw OBP, only Minnesota was worse at .318. Weirdly, Texas’s #1 hitters drew the most walks in the AL with 76. Texas #1 hitters had plenty of patience. What they lacked was batting average; their .243 figure was 25 points below any other team. They also lapped the field with 171 strikeouts, 49 more than runner-up New York. If you’re the kind fan who prefers a traditional top-of-the-order hitter, the Rangers most definitely were not for you.

The last statistic, (R-HR)%, measures how often the player scored when reaching base safely by means other than a home run. It measures the team more than the player, and Texas performed pretty well in this regard.

Texas Rangers #1 Hitters: The Individuals

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
D. Dellucci	56%	.833	111	.245	.346	99	.487	112	76	23	51	54	105	3	3
G. Matthews	23%	.759	92	.242	.306	88	.452	104	24	8	18	15	33	3	0
A. Soriano	13%	.781	97	.276	.301	86	.480	111	16	4	7	4	20	4	0
K. Mench	3%	.269	-28	.095	.174	50	.095	22	0	0	0	2	2	0	0
Other	5%	.709	208	.78	.252	72	.457	105	6	2	6	1	11	1	0

David Dellucci hit far better than anyone but him and his mother could have expected, and for a while he walked at a near-Bondsian rate (about once per five plate appearances during the season’s first two months). Nevertheless, his unexceptional batting average of .245 resulted in an only ordinary OBP. None of his teammates offered much support. Gary Matthews, Alfonso Soriano and friends hit for power but combined for a ghastly .293 on-base percentage.

American League #1 Hitters

TEAM	G	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Baltimore	162	.844	123	1	.371	108	2	.473	116	1
NY Yankees	162	.817	113	2	.379	109	1	.438	104	8
Seattle	162	.785	110	3	.349	102	5	.436	108	3
Boston	162	.804	110	4	.363	105	3	.441	105	6
Tampa Bay	162	.773	105	5	.337	99	8	.435	107	5
Cleveland	162	.770	105	6	.331	97	12	.439	108	2
Kansas City	162	.760	102	7	.336	98	10	.423	104	7
Texas	162	.785	99	8	.321	92	14	.464	107	4
Oakland	162	.746	97	9	.357	103	4	.390	94	11
Detroit	162	.742	95	10	.349	101	6	.392	95	9
LA Angels	162	.728	94	11	.341	100	7	.387	94	10
Toronto	162	.736	90	12	.340	98	9	.396	92	13
Minnesota	162	.702	86	13	.318	93	13	.384	93	12
Chicago Sox	162	.674	74	14	.338	97	11	.336	77	14

As for the rest of the league, Baltimore (consisting mostly of Brian Roberts) had the best group of #1 hitters in the AL, and Minnesota (Shannon Stewart and pals) and the World Champion Chicago White Sox (mainly Scott Podsednik) shared the worst.

Posted by Lucas at 11:58 PM

October 27, 2005

2005 OPS+ for Ranger Hitters

The nine with the most plate appearances:

NAME	G	AB	AVG	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	OPS	OPS+
Mark Teixeira	162	644	.301	.379	114	.575	130	.954	144
Michael Young	159	668	.331	.385	115	.513	116	.899	131
David. Dellucci	128	435	.251	.367	110	.513	116	.879	126
Alfonso Soriano	156	637	.268	.309	93	.512	116	.821	108
Kevin Mench	150	557	.264	.328	98	.469	106	.797	104
Rod Barajas	120	410	.254	.306	92	.466	105	.771	97
Gary Matthews Jr.	131	475	.255	.320	96	.436	99	.756	94
Hank Blalock	161	647	.263	.318	95	.431	97	.749	93
Richard Hidalgo	88	308	.221	.289	87	.416	94	.705	81

The rest:

NAME	G	AB	AVG	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	OPS	OPS+
Esteban German	5	4	.750	.750	225	1.000	226	1.750	351
Mark DeRosa	66	148	.243	.325	97	.439	99	.764	97
Jason Botts	10	27	.296	.367	110	.296	67	.663	77
Adrian Gonzalez	43	150	.227	.272	81	.407	92	.678	74
Laynce Nix	63	229	.240	.267	80	.397	90	.664	70
Chad Allen	21	53	.283	.309	93	.340	77	.649	69
Sandy Alomar Jr.	46	128	.273	.306	92	.328	74	.634	66
Gerald Laird	13	40	.225	.262	78	.350	79	.612	58
Phil Nevin	29	99	.182	.250	75	.323	73	.573	48
Pitchers	12	20	.200	.200	60	.300	68	.500	28
Andres Torres	8	19	.158	.190	57	.211	48	.401	5
Marshall McDougall	18	18	.167	.167	50	.222	50	.389	0

The team and opponents:

NAME	G	AB	AVG	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	OPS	OPS+
Rangers	162	5716	.267	.329	99	.468	106	.798	104
Opponents	162	5699	.279	.343	103	.428	97	.772	100

For what its worth, my estimates for park factors differ slightly from Baseball Reference. I'll explain later, and you can read it when you need sleep. For Texas in 2005, I use an OBP factor of 1.011 and a SLUG factor of 1.042. The American League as a whole had an OBP of .330 and a slugging percentage of .424. Adjusted for The Ballpark, an average OBP is .334 and an average slugging percentage is .442.

Posted by Lucas at 10:56 PM

October 19, 2005

Enough!

Can we dispense with the idea that the Ranger offense would improve by emulating the Houston Astros? Please?

In the past week, both Jim Reeves of the Fort Worth Star Telegram and Evan Grant of the Dallas Mornning News have made the case that Texas needs more sacrifice hits, and both made their argument by citing Houston’s four-sac performance against Atlanta in Game 1 of the NLDS . Says Mr. Grant:

...the most significant stat on the Rangers’ season [is] not the near-record 260 homers they hit, but the offensive record they did set. That was the one for fewest sacrifice bunts in a season. They had nine. Houston had four in its first playoff game. And the Astros ended up with 10 runs in that game.

260 homers have less significance than nine sac bunts? Really? If that’s the case, athletes should be bunting in all sports, not just baseball. Drew Bledsoe might throw six touchdown passes next week if he bunted a few times. I’m going to start bunting in my dart league once I figure out how.

But seriously, folks, the implication is clear: Texas hit a million homers but couldn’t advance runners the old-fashioned way, and they’re sitting on their couches watching the playoffs on teevee. Meanwhile, Houston is in the playoffs AND winning with their drunk-on-bunts strategy. I know Grant knows that Houston paved their road to the postseason with fantastic pitching, not hitting, but he did say what he said.

A quick note about sacrifice bunting for the uninitiated: Batters occasionally bunt for a hit, but most of the time the purpose of a sacrifice bunt is to give up an out in exchange for an increase the probability of scoring one run. Sacrifices do increase the likelihood of scoring a run, but they also hinder the ability to score multiple runs in an inning.

Regarding the issue of whether Texas should bunt more often, first I’ll examine the game situation for each of Houston’s four successful sacrifice bunts and whether they apply to Texas under American League rules. Second, I’ll explore differences in the teams on a more general level.

The game:

1st inning, score 0-0: Biggio walked. Taveras bunted Biggio to second. Berkman walked (not intentionally but on four pitches). Ensberg singled home Biggio.

Texas would have Michael Young batting in this situation. Young led the AL in batting average and threw in 40 doubles and 24 homers for good measure. He even walked a career-best 58 times. Bunting here would be foolish. Note that back in 2002 when Young didn’t hit well (.262/.308/.382) and often filled the #9 slot, he had thirteen sac bunts. Weak hitters should bunt more often because the decreased likelihood of advancing runners via hits or walks. Willy Taveras is a weak hitter. He batted a respectable .291 but with 49 fewer extra-base hits and 33 fewer walks than Young. Basically, he’s only good for getting singles, and in fact drag-bunting for singles is his best talent. Having Taveras bunt makes sense. Again, having Young bunt would not.

4th inning, score 3-1: Ausmus doubled. Pettitte bunted Ausmus to third. Biggio hit sac fly scoring Ausmus.

Pitchers don’t bat in the American League except in NL parks and bizarre circumstances. Texas might have Rod Barajas or Mark DeRosa up here. With a two-run lead and no risk of a double play, Texas should swing away and play for a big inning. As to why Houston had Pettitte bunt with none out and the runner already at second, Pettitte had a terrible year at the plate (.081/.094/.081). His 7th-inning double (see below) was only his sixth hit and first extra-base hit all season.

7th inning, score 4-3: Pettitte doubled(!). Biggio bunted Pettitte to third. Taveras grounded out. Berkman walked intentionally. Ensberg singled home Pettitte.

David Dellucci would bat here. Dellucci batted only .251 but drew 76 walks and hit a career-best 29 homers. (If Atlanta put in a lefty to face Dellucci, Texas probably would counter with Mark DeRosa or Phil Nevin.) Young, Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira would follow Dellucci or his replacement. Playing for one run seems ill-advised. For that matter, I question having Biggio bunt, since Taveras doesn’t hit well and Atlanta certainly won’t allow Berkman to swing the bat. Biggio’s bunt practically insures the need for a two-out hit from Ensberg (which he did deliver).

8th inning, score 5-3: Everett singled. Ausmus singled, Everett to second. Pettitte bunted both runners over. Biggio walked intentionally. Bagwell (batting for Taveras) singled home Everett. Berkman struck out. Ensberg walked, Ausmus scored.

Again, pitchers don’t bat for Texas. Barajas, assuming he fills the #9 slot, has a tolerable strikeout rate (about one per six at-bats) and hit into only six doubles plays all season. Bunting isn’t a terrible idea, but neither is letting the man swing.

The Astros placed four successful sacrifice bunts against Atlanta, advancing five runners, all of whom scored. That’s outstanding baseball and a large part of Houston’s victory in Game 1. Nevertheless, in only one of those four situations does bunting even approach a logical maneuver for Texas. Two of Houston’s four bunts were by the pitcher and one was by a weak-hitting #2 hitter in the first inning. Those characteristics don’t apply even remotely to Texas.

On a macro level, the value of sacrificing increases in a low-scoring environment and decreases when runs are plentiful. Pretend that runs in baseball are as infrequent as goals in soccer. The value of one run would be immense, often the difference between winning and losing. Surrendering an out to increase the chance of scoring one run would almost always constitute a winning strategy. Conversely, pretend that baseball is like softball, where (in my low-level beer league) scores of 18-12 are common. In this environment, one run doesn’t mean so much and giving up outs spells disaster.

Run-scoring in baseball falls into a much narrower range, of course, but the fictional examples above help to describe how different environments favor or discourage sacrifice bunts. Regarding Texas and Houston, those environments could not be more opposed:

Combined runs by team and opponent, 2005:

Team         Runs     Runs/Game    MLB Rank
Texas       1,712       10.63         1st
Houston     1,302        8.04        30th

Though sacrifice hits are situation-driven, low-scoring and close games tend to create more situations where sac bunts are worthwhile. Houston played almost twice as many games of that variety than Texas:

Games with Seven or Fewer Total Runs:

                                 Games With
               Games With     <=7 Total Runs &
Team         <=7 Total Runs   <= 2-Run Margin
Texas              47                28
Houston            86                53

Does Texas need to bunt more? Maybe a few more would help. I don’t know. Here’s what I do know:

• Citing a National League team as a reason why Texas should bunt more doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. Nor does citing a bad offensive team like Houston.
• Texas had the fourth-best offense in the AL (after adjusting for park) behind New York, Boston and Cleveland. Without question, they have areas needing improvement. Still, the offense played well on the whole.
• If Texas had Houston’s pitching staff, they would have allowed about 670 runs instead of 858 and won about 101 games instead of 79.
  

Posted by Lucas at 06:40 PM

October 10, 2005

Homegrown

Drafted by Texas and on the active roster or disabled list at the end of the 2005 season (round in parentheses):

2003
P Scott Feldman (30)

2002
P Kameron Loe (20)

2001
1B Mark Teixeira (1)
P C.J. Wilson (5)

2000
OF Laynce Nix (4)

1999
P Nick Regilio (2) (disabled)
3B Hank Blalock (3)
OF Kevin Mench (4)
OF Jason Botts (46)

1996
P R.A. Dickey (1)

Posted by Lucas at 08:15 AM

October 08, 2005

Attrition

I began keeping a Ranger player database at the end of the 2003 season. Here’s a list of players who have remained on the 40-man roster during the past two years:

P Joaquin Benoit
P Francisco Cordero
P R.A. Dickey
P Juan Dominguez
P Erasmo Ramirez
P Ricardo Rodriguez
P Brian Shouse
C Gerald Laird
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Hank Blalock
SS Michael Young
OF Kevin Mench
OF Laynce Nix

On the active (25-man) roster and uninjured during the past two years? Cordero, Teixeira, Blalock and Young.

Posted by Lucas at 04:30 PM

October 04, 2005

GM John Hart Resigns

Texas announced that General Manager John Hart has resigned. Jon Daniels has been promoted from assistant GM to GM.

Hart remains with the organization with the title of “senior advisor/baseball operations,� but that may be a position without portfolio, a face-saving maneuver. Originally, he intended to leave after three years with Grady Fuson taking his place. During his ostensible final year when the Rangers held the division lead into July, he decided to stay (with Hicks’s approval), leaving Fuson a lame duck after 32 months of a 36-month apprenticeship.

Hart leaves without much success. The Rangers had one winning season and a record of 311-337 during his four-year tenure, never made the playoffs and never finished higher than third place in a four-team division.

I don’t have the energy to catalogue Hart’s entire career with Texas, but here’s a look at his acquisitions during his first five months in office, November 2001-March 2002:

Chan Ho Park (5 years, $65 million)
Jay Powell (3 years, $9 million)
Todd Van Poppel (3 years, $7 million)
Juan Gonzalez (2 years, $24 million)
Carl Everett (via trade, 2 years, $17.8 million)
Ismael Valdez (1 years, $2.5 million)
John Rocker (via trade, 1 year, $2.5 million)
Dave Burba (1 year, $2 million, released that July)
Herbert Perry (via trade, 1 year, $900,000)
Hideki Irabu (1 year, $550,000)
Dan Miceli (1 year, $1 million, released that May)
Rudy Seanez (1 year, $1 million)
Rich Rodriguez (via trade, 1 year $600,000)
Steve Woodward (1 year, $550,000)

Valdez pitched well, Perry had a career year filling in for the not-ready-for-prime-time Hank Blalock, Powell had his moments (in 2002, at least), and Everett hit well enough in 2003 to get a nice return via trade. The rest were a miasma of fleeting quasi-effectiveness, injuries, and despair.

If someone ever brings up the tired argument that Texas couldn’t afford any free agents because of Alex Rodriguez’s giant contract, the list above is your rejoinder. Texas acquired all these players the year after signing Rodriguez. It was this collection of contracts, not Rodriguez, that soured Texas on the free-agent process. Since 2002, I can find only one multi-year free-agent acquisition from another team, Kenny Rogers’s two-year deal for 2004-2005.

The 28-year-old Daniels becomes the youngest GM in MLB history.

Posted by Lucas at 11:45 PM

September 21, 2005

Mathematically Eliminated

Anaheim has a Magic Number of two against Texas, and Oakland has a number of three. Neither team eliminates the Rangers by itself, but Anaheim and Oakland have four games against each other next week. When the teams ahead of Texas face off, the results always hurt. Texas can't win more than 86 games, and either Anaheim or Oakland will win no fewer than 87. Current Wild-Card leader Cleveland already has 88 wins.

This exercise in pointlessness sponsored by Tucks Medicated Pads.

Posted by Lucas at 01:08 AM

September 15, 2005

How Weather Affects The Ballpark

Yesterday’s Baseball Prospectus scooped me:

The Rangers can mash, but unless owner Tom Hicks relocates the franchise to Alaska, Texas is going to have to deal with its unique greenhouse effect in developing pitchers--according to research by James Click, the unforgiving summer in Arlington inflates offense in a bell-curve fashion, as runs/game and slugging jump at Ameriquest in the season's middle months.

I was mildly disappointed to read this. About a month ago, I was playing around with the Ranger game results from 2002-2005 and found that The Ballpark’s inflation of offense was pretty mild in the season’s first and last months. Instead of writing an entry immediately, I intended to wait until the season ended so that I’d have more data. Here I was, thinking I’d unearthed a potentially useful bit of information all on my own. Silly me.

Anyway, yes, the Ballpark does tend to inflate offense when the temperature peaks. In April and September, the Ballpark plays as a garden-variety hitter-friendly park. From May through August, it becomes the stadium we know and love (or loathe):

“Raw� Park Factor indicates the simple division of runs at home by runs on the road. Interestingly, the park factors do not correlate especially strongly with the average daily high temperature:

September is slightly warmer than May and much warmer than April but has the lowest park factor. May is the second coolest month but plays as offense-friendly as July and August. I don’t know why. Using only four years of data probably creates some statistical noise, and the monthly composition of Texas opponents and road parks may also play a role in skewing the data.

Posted by Lucas at 02:05 PM

August 22, 2005

One and Twelve

Whenever something goes horribly wrong, my mental soundtrack queues up a twelve-sheets-to-the-wind Neil Young croaking “Well it wasn’t supposed to turn out that way" from Tonight's the Night's "Tired Eyes." I had that song playing in my head repeatedly while watching the Rangers over the past two weeks.

I think most dedicated Ranger fans held no illusions about the situation going into the road trip. Texas stood several games behind several teams for both the West Division and the wild card, and they traveled to face Boston, New York, Cleveland, and a suddenly tenacious Devil Ray club. I envisioned a hard-fought 5-8 or 6-7 swing. Early on, Texas set an MLB record by losing six consecutive games in which they scored at least five runs. By the end of the trip, even the Ranger offense had assimilated the morgue-like atmosphere of Tropicana Field.

A summary of the 1-12 road trip:

Runs Scored	54 (4.2 per game)
Runs Allowed	96 (7.4 per game)
Batting Line	.255 / .310 / .412 (.722 OPS)
Team OPS+	90
Double Plays by Offense	13
Pitchers Used	16
Innings Per Game Pitched By Starters	4.85
ERA by all pitchers / starters / relievers	7.14 / 7.29 / 6.95
ERA+ by all pitchers	60 (60!)
WHIP by all pitchers / starters / relievers	1.74 / 1.67 / 1.83

Incidentally, the key lyric from that song is “He tried to do his best, but he could not.”

Posted by Lucas at 11:13 PM

August 06, 2005

What Is Managament Thinking? The C.J. Wilson Saga

I come to praise C.J. Wilson, not to bury him.

At least I mean him no harm, and I don’t blame him (much) for his 10.23 ERA. The question is not “Why has Wilson pitched so badly,” but “What is management thinking?”

Wilson came to Texas in the 5th round of 2001 after one season at Loyola Marymount and two JuCo seasons. Effectively, he was the Rangers’ second pick, as they had no 2nd or 3rd round choices, and their 4th-round pick didn’t sign. (Incidentally, the only other player from that draft still in the organization is top pick Mark Teixeira.)

That year, Wilson pitched well in rookie ball and at low-A Savannah. In 2002, he made fifteen starts and eleven relief appearance at high-A Charlotte (Florida), posting at 3.06 ERA, allowing 3.5 walks per nine innings and striking out 6.5. Notably, he allowed only four homers in 106 innings. He pitched even better during five starts at AA (1.80 ERA, no homers allowed in 30 innings).

Going into 2003, Baseball America rated Wilson the Rangers’ #8 prospect. Wilson pitched inconsistently but slightly better than his 5.05 ERA would indicate (0.8 homers, 2.8 walks, and 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings). In August, Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2004. Wilson began 2005 in high-A Bakersfield, then moved back to AA after four starts. By early June, he had a grim 6.99 ERA.

I recap his history to show that he looked more like a project than a prospect as of June 2005. Nevertheless, on June 11 Texas added him to the 40-man roster and the big-league bullpen. Wilson made three acceptable relief appearances (three innings, five baserunners, one run) in five days, and on June 19 he made his first of five starts as a Major Leaguer:

Date	Opp.	IP	H	R	ER	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HB	ERA	WHIP
6/19	WAS	3.67	9	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	7.36	2.73
6/27	LAA	4.67	8	7	5	3	0	0	2	0	0	9.64	2.14
7/2	sea	2.00	4	4	4	1	0	1	3	2	0	18.00	3.50
7/31	tor	6.00	8	4	4	0	0	1	0	6	1	6.00	1.50
8/5	BAL	2.67	9	8	8	3	0	2	2	0	0	27.00	4.12

Only one of his starts has approached respectability, a six-inning, four-run effort in Toronto. Opposing batters are hitting .432/.475/.670 against him as a starter. On balls hit into the field of play, opponents are hitting .436. Ordinarily, an average that high indicates incredibly bad luck. A typical Ranger pitcher should allow an average of about .310 on balls in play. In this case, I don’t think Wilson is unlucky, just unprepared for Major-League hitters. No pitcher allows a consistently higher-than-average hit rate on balls in play, because such a pitcher doesn’t stay in baseball long enough to have a career. This level is where Wilson resides right now; he can’t even approach a John Wasdin-like semi-effectiveness.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote the following this morning: “Young pitchers often learn by failing, as Atlanta's talented trio of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Steve Avery did in the late 1980s.” I understand Grant is comparing situations, not talent, but I think it’s instructive to study both. Certainly, clubs and scouts regarded Atlanta’s young trio more highly than Wilson. Avery was the third-overall pick of the 1988 draft. Glavine was a second round (47th overall) pick in 1984. Smoltz, while only a 22nd-round pick for Detroit in 1985, had developed enough that the Tigers surrendered him for Doyle Alexander during August of 1987. Indeed, all three “failed” during their rookie seasons, but none to the extent of Wilson:

Rookie Season	IP	ERA	ERA+
Tom Glavine	50	5.54	79
John Smoltz	64	5.48	67
Steve Avery	99	5.64	71
C.J. Wilson	22	10.23	47

Furthermore, the situations aren't comparable. The Braves of this period were a national joke, perennially at risk of losing 100 games and far worse than the Ranger of 2000-2003. Smoltz, Glavine and Avery debuted for moribund clubs playing for the future. Ostensibly, C.J. Wilson debuted for a contender fighting for the division lead:

Pitcher	Debut	Team Record
Tom Glavine	8/17/1987	50-67
John Smoltz	7/23/1988	32-61
Steve Avery	6/12/1990	22-33
C.J. Wilson	6/18/2005	37-29

Last night, Wilson offered his worst performance yet, allowing eight runs in only 2.2 innings. His ERA as a starter has ballooned to 11.37 (an ERA+ of 42). Nevertheless, manager Buck Showalter suggests Wilson will probably stay in the rotation at least as long as Kenny Rogers is suspended. At this point, Wilson may as well remain, because Texas is toast. The question is: Did no other club have a replacement-level starter toiling in AAA that Texas could have acquired cheaply? Even another John Wasdin would have provided a small boost to the rotation.

Again, I don’t blame Wilson. To summarize his minor-league history:

2001: Solid in rookie and low-A
2002: Solid in high-A and AA
2003: Struggled in AA, then surgery
2004: Did not pitch
2005: Struggled badly in AA

What is management thinking?

How did they expect Wilson to perform?

Did they genuinely expect to maintain their postseason hopes with him on the roster?

Posted by Lucas at 02:47 PM

July 30, 2005

Old Times Were Good Times

Only supernatural beings can fully contemplate just how awfully Chan Ho Park pitched for Texas. Mere mortals quail in terror and hide in caves at the sight of his stat line. Nevertheless, I will go where angels fear to tread by examining Park’s tenure with the Rangers.

How did Park become a Ranger? An ugly confluence of desperation and availability. In 2001, The Rangers signed Alex Rodriguez to a ten-year, $250 million contract and expected to contend immediately. The ’01 offense ranks among the best in franchise history, yet it was undercut by a spectacularly awful pitching corps. The Rangers’ ERA+ of 78 that season was the worst in the American League in the history of divisional play. The top six members of the rotation combined for 145 starts and an ERA of 5.74. After three division titles in four years, the Rangers had finished in the basement for the second consecutive season.

Meanwhile, Chan Ho Park had finished his fourth solid season in five as a starter with the Dodgers. In eight years with Los Angeles, Park amassed a 3.80 ERA, and ERA+ of 110, and a record of 80-54. He struck out over eight batters per nine innings. He had the same agent as Alex Rodriguez, the notorious Scott Boras. At that time, Boras and owner Tom Hicks were on unnervingly cordial terms. On that basis, Texas signed Park to a five-year, $65 million contract on January 16, 2002.

Alas, Hicks and new General Manager John Hart did not do their homework, or perhaps they assumed away Park’s warning signs. Park walked or hit nearly five per nine innings. Outside of Dodger Stadium, among the friendliest parks’ for pitchers in baseball, he had an ERA of 4.80. He had a reputation of emotional fragility and perhaps lacked the mental toughness to be a staff ace.

ESPN.com’s Tom Candiotti provided this terse assessment in his 2002 preview:

Chan Ho Park comes to Texas with a big contract and high expectations to be the staff ace and leader. It won't happen. Park will struggle away from the pitching-friendly atmosphere of Dodger Stadium.

Even in retrospect, it’s hard to fathom how quickly Park descended to pariah status. Park pitched adequately in Spring Training (4.50 ERA, 5 BB, 16 SO in 16 IP) but was troubled with a hamstring pull. On April 1, 2002, he started Opening Day in Oakland and offered the kind of performance that would signify his entire career with Texas. Park allowed a leadoff single to Jeremy Giambi and hit Randy Velarde but escaped unharmed by inducing a double play grounder from Scott Hatteberg. In the second, he allowed a solo homer from Eric Chavez. In the third, he permitted an RBI-double by Frank Menechino and a two-run homer by Dave Justice. He gave up two hits to start the sixth and was replaced by Todd Van Poppel, who allowed both runners to score before returing a batter. Final line: five-plus innings, nine hits, no walks, a hit batter, six earned runs, only ninety pitches.

Park aggravated his hamstring pull and hit the Disabled List. He would not pitch again until May 12. On June 23, he offered his first quality start in nine attempts. The effort lowered his ERA to 8.52. Park missed another three weeks in August with blisters, but in his final eight starts (and with the season effectively over) he showed why Texas signed him. Park had six quality starts, five wins, and a 3.29 ERA. He gave Texas some hope for 2003.

It didn’t last. Park had struck out a career-worst 7.5 per nine innings in 2002, yet it was his high mark as a Ranger. Park allowed six runs in 3.2 innings in his 2003 debut at Anaheim. By the end of the month he had a 7.16 ERA and revisited the Disabled List with a sore lower back. He returned on June 27, allowed three runs in two innings to Montreal, and left after 33 pitches when he reinjured his back and rib cage. Park would not pitch again in 2003.

2004 granted little improvement. Park did make eight consecutive injury-free starts to begin the season with a relatively benign 5.80 ERA, but he hurt his back once again and missed over three months. He finished with eight more starts and a 4.87 ERA. His ERA+ of 93 would be the best he would ever tally as a Ranger.

Park had to earn a rotation spot in 2005. With “only” two years and $29 million left on his contract, Texas considered waiving him during the spring. Park did earn his job and has remained healthy, making twenty consecutive starts. The results have been the usual grab-bag: ten quality starts mixed with a pitiful effort against Oakland last Sunday and a dumbfounding, one-inning, eight-run line at Los Angeles in June. Even with a rotation in tatters, Texas jumped at the opportunity to rid themselves of Park.

So, how bad was he?

In three-plus years, Park spent 319 games on the active roster and 278 on the Disabled List. Aside from 2005, he never made more than fourteen consecutive injury-free starts. He leaves Texas with an ERA of 5.79 and an ERA+ of 85. Per the folks at Baseball Prospectus, Park made 68 starts and won all of 2.5 more games than a replacement-level pitcher, assuming typical run support.

I collected the statistics of every pitcher who pitched at least 80 innings a season during 2002-2004 and 50 innings this season. There are 81 of them. Park himself does not make the list, as he pitched only 29 innings in 2003, but I wanted to compare him to his rotation peers. Again per Baseball Prospectus, the average pitcher had a total VORP (Value Over Replacement Player, measured in runs) of about 110, with Pedro Martinez leading the list at 241. Here are the bottom four plus Park:

Ryan Dempster (-4)
Chan Ho Park (0)
Jason Jennings (19)
Joe Kennedy (19)
Aaron Sele (27)

If not for Dempster (who has resurrected his career as the Cubs’ closer), Park would stand alone as the worst starter in baseball during the last four years. Park’s VORP of zero means he’s pitched exactly at replacement level as a Ranger. What is a replacement level? John Wasdin. R.A. Dickey. Pedro Astacio over the last few years. Guys like that. Almost no one compares to Park, because everyone else in baseball pitching this poorly has been pulled from the rotation or cut. That would have been Park’s fate if not for his contract.

Park made 68 starts for Texas. 26 were "quality" (at least six innings, no more than three runs), 22 were "disasters" (at least at many runs allowed as innings pitched), and 20 were intermediate. Here's how they break down:

Category	Games	% of Total	Park W-L	Team W-L	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
Quality	26	38%	14-3	16-10	2.44	7.2	0.5	3.5	6.3
Intermediate	20	29%	6-6	11-9	5.58	9.2	1.3	4.7	6.5
Disaster	22	32%	2-14	7-15	11.88	15.1	2.7	5.6	6.4

Park's best five starts as a Ranger, ranked by Game Score:

Date	Opp.	Score	Inn	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	Game Score
10/03/04	@SEA	W 3-0	7.00	2	0	0	0	3	3	73
05/22/05	HOU	W 2-0	7.00	6	0	0	0	0	2	67
04/29/05	BOS	W 7-2	7.00	3	2	2	0	4	7	66
07/21/02	@OAK	W 7-3	8.00	5	2	2	0	4	5	65
04/23/05	@NYY	W 10-2	7.67	3	1	1	0	5	6	65

Park's worst five starts as a Ranger:

Date	Opp.	Score	Inn	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	Game Score
06/21/05	@LAA	L 8-6	1.00	10	8	8	0	1	0	0
06/07/02	ATL	L 13-7	1.33	8	9	9	1	1	1	2
04/01/03	@LAA	L 10-0	3.67	6	6	6	1	3	0	19
07/24/05	OAK	L 8-3	3.33	9	6	6	0	2	3	19
05/04/05	@OAK	W 16-7	4.67	8	5	5	2	6	3	22

Finally, Park's stats with the Dodgers and Rangers:

Team	W-L	Inn	ERA	ERA+	H/9	HR/9	BB+HB/9	SO/9
Los Angeles	80-54	1184	3.80	110	7.6	0.94	4.8	8.3
Texas	22-23	381	5.79	85	10.0	1.30	5.5	6.6

I won't miss him.

Posted by Lucas at 04:55 PM

July 27, 2005

Predictions Are Fun!

Now seems an appropriate time to mention the last two sentences of my Rangers preview at The Batter's Box, March 18, 2005:

Texas did not adequately address last year's shortcomings in the offseason. They could win the division but will not, instead retreating to about 84 wins and a third-place finish.

Not a bold prediction, but that's the point. Texas had holes, didn't fill them, and in late July they find themselves hovering around the .500 mark. Eminently unshocking.

Posted by Lucas at 12:26 AM

July 23, 2005

Is Laynce Nix An Everyday Player?

The Dallas Morning News reported that Laynce Nix may undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The news is startling because Nix injured his left shoulder against Oakland last week. If Nix does miss the rest of 2005, Texas will enter 2006 still unsure of whether Nix is worthy of everyday play.

Early reports on Nix suggested he could be a “tweener,” someone who didn’t field quite well enough to play center but also wouldn’t hit quite enough to man a corner spot. Nix spent more time in right than center his freshman year, though he has since displayed sufficient defense prowess in center. The problem is, to date, he’s not hitting well even as a center fielder.

On July 10, 2003, Texas recalled the 22-year-old Nix from AA, where he was batting a robust if unspectacular .284/.344/.487. Nix debuted with promise, and despite a weak finish he added some hope to yet another dire Ranger season. In 2004, he hit the cover off the ball for two months, tapered off for two weeks, then suffered a shoulder injury that cost him a month. Since then, he hasn’t hit at all, performing roughly at replacement level during the last calendar year. As shown in the jagged 20-game OPS line in the chart above, Nix only rarely attains mere adequacy with the bat.

Nix’s rather disheartening lack of progress begs the question of why he reached the Majors at such a young age. He had all of 87 games of experience above A-ball when he debuted as a Ranger. Again, his performance in AA was strong but hardly eye-popping. Why catapult him all the way to Arlington?

The answer goes back to Spring Training of 2003. Having made the obvious yet belated discovery that Carl Everett was no longer a center fielder, Texas started Doug Glanville in center for the season’s first two weeks. When he fell to injury, they recalled Ryan Christenson. Christenson hit .179/.255/.255, excellent stats if your home park is in a 2.5-G environment like the planet Jupiter. Texas traded Everett at the end of June and rookie Kevin Mench suffered a broken wrist on July 9th. On the morning of July 10th, the roster contained three healthy outfielders: Glanville, Juan Gonzalez and Ryan Ludwick. Enter Laynce Nix.

Whether or not Texas rushed Nix, the operative question is whether they can make the 2006 postseason with him in center field. Nix’s bugaboo has always been plate discipline. Rare talents like Alfonso Soriano can excel despite their dreadful walk and strikeout ratios, but Nix doesn’t hit for power or contact like Soriano. In 2005, Nix has shown genuine improvement in his strikeout rate. Unfortunately, his walk rate has fallen to a Ramon Nivar-like level.

Nix doesn’t turn 26 until February and has time to improve, but Texas might not be able to wait. They are expected to contend, not just compete. If Nix can return during the season, Texas needs to play him every day. They’ll need those extra data points come winter, when they have to decide whether an upgrade at the position is necessary.

Posted by Lucas at 10:14 AM

July 19, 2005

Fun Tables and Graphs Make Ranger Pitching Slightly More Palatable

Texas waived Ryan Drese on June 8th. Chris Young pitched respectably in a loss to the Phillies that evening, but ever since, the Ranger rotation has floundered:

Game Set	RA	ERA	Innings / Start	Hits / 9 IP	2B / 9 IP	HR / 9 IP	BB / 9 IP	SO / 9 IP	Avg. Game Score
1-57	4.42	4.14	6.1	9.5	2.1	0.7	2.8	5.1	50
58-92	6.91	6.44	4.9	11.3	2.6	1.6	2.9	5.4	40

The home run rate is particularly unsettling. For two months, Texas pitchers displayed an astonishing facility for keeping the ball in the park. Lately, every fly ball seems to catch that center-field jet stream to Green Hill.

Keeping Drese might not have helped; after all, his Ranger ERA of 6.46 is actually higher than the rotation’s ERA since his departure. On the other hand, replacements John Wasdin and C.J. Wilson have fared even worse on the whole, with Wasdin’s out-of-body experience on June 28th (eight innings, one run) providing a memorable exception.

Posted by Lucas at 12:46 AM

July 11, 2005

The Curse Of The Long Ball

Jamey Newberg had this to say on July 7th:

Mark Teixeira was invited to represent the United States in next Monday's Home Run Derby in Detroit, the day before the All-Star Game. I was half hoping he wouldn't be chosen -- the Home Run Derby seemed to throw Hank Blalock into a slump last summer. Blalock hit .303 with 23 home runs before the Break last year, and .240 with nine homers afterwards. You can argue whether there's any correlation, but I'd just assume avoid the issue a second time around.

Did the Derby really affect his bat? I don’t recall Blalock claiming it did, so that probably provides the answer right there. Still, the cliff-drop in his performance after the break (especially the .166 decline in slugging) merits genuine concern. Armed with my strongest weapons, a spreadsheet and some free time, I have delved further into his mysterious second-half decay.

The chart above displays a rolling OPS for Blalock in seven-game (green) and twenty-game (blue) spans. Blalock’s tremendous first half peaked on June 30th when he completed a five-game stretch that included four doubles and four homes. On the morning of July 1, he had an OPS of .977 for the season.

Then, trouble began. Slumps don’t have rigid requirements, of course, but Blalock arguably began his during the week before the All-Star game. On July 11, the last game before the break, Blalock’s oh-for-five gave him a .555 OPS over his last seven games, his lowest of the season in any seven-game span up to that date. He actually hit pretty well the week after the break, but in the 23 games from July 24 to August 16th, Blalock batted a sub-Mendoza .117/.244/.156. He then batted respectably over the season’s last seven weeks, if not at his earlier torrid pace.

Blalock’s appearance in the Home Run Derby doesn’t appear to have harmed his offense, though it also certainly didn’t help. Having said that, I was guiltily relieved to see Teixeira’s lackluster performance in the 2005 Derby. He didn’t hit twenty awe-inspiring and potentially swing-altering homers. I expect Monday to be a non-issue in terms of his second-half output.

Posted by Lucas at 11:54 PM

July 09, 2005

Ryan Drese Is Responsible For EVERYTHING

Todd Willis of the DMN points out the following:

“Since [Ryan] Drese was designated for assignment on June 8, Rangers' starters are 11-16 with a dreadful 6.09 ERA.�

True enough, and very bad. It is also 0.37 lower than Drese’s ERA of 6.46 with the Rangers. Viewed narrowly, Ricardo Rodriguez and his ERA of 3.90 have proved a more-than-worthy replacement for Drese. Kenny Rogers, Chris Young and Chan Ho Park had an aggregate ERA of 3.09 before Drese departed and 6.25 afterwards. That isn’t management’s fault, unless Drese possessed the magical power to depress everyone’s ERA but his own.

Having said that, I did not favor Drese’s dismissal, if only because I (along with most other sentient beings) knew that Astacio’s shelf-life as a Ranger would soon expire. Replacing Drese with Rodriguez was painless in and of itself. Finding replacements for two starters within a two-week period would daunt just about any team. Surely the Rangers considered that issue when they risked losing Drese. Right?

Posted by Lucas at 04:15 PM

July 03, 2005

John Wasdin: "Wayback" No More?

Originally published at the Lone Star Blog:

Coming into 2005, John Wasdin has had a career best described in polite company as “undistinguished.� From 1995-2004, Wasdin pitched for seven different clubs including the Yomiuri Giants in 2002. Only in 1997 did he spend a full season in the Majors; since 1998, he has 392 Major-League innings and 352 minor-league innings. In the bigs, he has a 5.38 ERA, and his ERA+ of 90 ranks among contemporaries Shawn Estes, Jason Johnson, Scott Shoeweneweis, and Jaret Wright.

His jacktastic tendencies have inhibited a more stable and lucrative career. Wasdin allowed 119 homers in 668 innings prior to 2005, a dire rate of one per 5.6 innings. Even in 1997, his most successful season, he allowed one per seven innings but survived by surrendering them with fewer runners on base. The homers have obliterated his strong points: only 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings, a solid strikeout rate of 6.2 per nine, and an average-against on balls in play of .293.

In 2005, Wasdin spent two months in AAA Oklahoma offering more of the same: a 4.93 ERA and eleven homers in 73 innings. Nevertheless, Texas bought his contract in mid-June when Ron Mahay, Nick Regilio and Joaquin Benoit hit the Disabled List within a five-day span.

What followed was revelatory. Wasdin saw action on his first day with the team and pitched four shutout innings against Florida. Three more scoreless outings followed, and on June 28, he held the division-leading Angels to one run over eight innings. Wasdin currently sports on ERA of 1.40 and has allowed only twenty baserunners in 25.2 innings. Even with so few innings pitched, he ranks third among Ranger hurlers in VORP.

Say it with me: Hooray for John Wasdin! Unfortunately, the question is not whether Wasdin will fall, but how hard. The statistics tell the story of an incredibly lucky pitcher.

Wasdin has allowed two homers in 25.2 innings, a rate less than half his career average. Before doing any research, I’d assumed that Wasdin had adopted Orel Hershiser’s grounder-heavy philosophy. Could Wasdin achieve long-term success with this approach, or would his career arc, like Ryan Drese, mimic Charly Gordon? Surprisingly and disconcertingly, Wasdin is allowing fly balls at a higher rate than his career average (0.63 vs. 0.82). For whatever reason, those flies are staying on the proper side of the fence. Maybe skill plays a role, but I’m skeptical.

Wasdin also has struck out only eleven batters, meaning he is allowing more balls into play than usual. You don’t have to be a true believer in DIPS to trust that pitchers have less control over batting average on balls hit into play than other peripherals. Certainly, drastic changes in hit rate should not last long. Wasdin’s average on balls hit into play during 2005 is .181, over 100 points below his career average.

In sum, John Wasdin has cut his home run rate by more than 50%, but he also is allowing more fly balls than ever, his strikeout rate is down, and his hit rate is unsustainable. Perhaps Wasdin has internalized some philosophical or mechanical change that will allow him to thrive in the Majors. I hope so, for the raggedy bullpen and soon-to-be-shorthanded rotation need his help. Unfortunately, the statistics suggest trouble ahead.

Posted by Lucas at 04:29 PM

July 01, 2005

Hitters After Three Months

Originally published at the Lone Star Blog:

As mentioned in the previous post, the Ranger offense has improved considerably over 2004, particularly in terms of reaching base (despite a slightly lower walk rate). On the whole, they aren’t responsible for the team’s middling performance. Still, most Ranger fans reasonably appreciate that the offense could stand to improve. Across the universe of message boards, informed and discerning fans grouse about hitting with runners in scoring position, advancing runners, too many strikeouts, and so on.

Humbug. The Rangers just don’t have enough talent:

OPS and OPS+ for Players with 50 At-Bats:

Player            OPS     OPS+  Career OPS+
David Dellucci   .925     142       92
Kevin Mench      .933     140      106
Mark Teixeira    .930     139      116 
Michael Young    .863     125       92
Alfonso Soriano  .870     122      111
Hank Blalock     .840     118      108
Rod Barajas      .740      92       60
Richard Hidalgo  .693      79      114 
Laynce Nix       .668      73       80
Sandy Alomar     .648      72       87   
Chad Allen       .649      71       80
Gary Matthews    .615      60       88

Team OPS and OPS+ by Position:

Pos     OPS   AL Rank  OPS+   AL OPS+
C      .708      6      85      83
1B     .924      1     137     108
2B     .867      2     121      96
3B     .836      5     117     105
SS     .840      2     119      94
LF     .982      1     152     105
CF     .605     14      58      96 
RF     .708     13      83     109
DH     .788      7     107     106

Richard Hidalgo has been a poor man’s Brad Fullmer with a pretty rich man’s salary. Laynce Nix has shown absolutely no improvement beyond a slight reduction in strikeouts and some balls sprayed to the opposite field. The bench would embarrass Joe Torre. Everyone else is pulling their weight.

Everyone? Even Rod Barajas?

Remember Lisa Simpson’s trepidation at entering the “Little Miss Springfield� pageant (sponsored by Laramie Cigarettes), and Bart grudgingly telling her she wasn’t ugly? Sure you do. Just as grudgingly, I say the following: Rod Barajas has performed respectably. History suggests he’ll recede, but if he somehow continues to bat .260 with power and a not-too-terrible walk rate, he’ll have earned John Hart’s graciously tendered $1.8 million.

Posted by Lucas at 04:26 PM

Perception Becomes Reality

Originally published at the Lone Star Blog:

The casual Ranger fan would probably describe 2004's surprising squad as a combination of good hitting and bad pitching, when in fact the opposite was the truth. Last year's bunch slugged with authority but had difficulty getting on base. The bullpen dominated and the rotation, cobbled together though it was, didn't perform that much below the league average.

In 2005, the team has changed to meet perceptions:

Team OPS+:
2004- 94
2005- 108

Team ERA+:
2004- 111
2005- 91

Note to the uninitiated: statistical terms appended with "+" are indexes that measure performance adjusted for league and home park. Higher scores indicate a better performance, and 100 is average.

Posted by Lucas at 04:24 PM

June 30, 2005

Pedro a Padre

Originally published at the Lone Star Blog:

Pedro Astacio has signed a minor-league deal with the San Diego Padres. You can watch him pitch if you're in the Portland area.

For now, Texas still owes him the rest of his $800,000 base contract. By my calculations, he also earned $175,000 in incentives ($25,000 for starts 10-12, plus $150,000 for his two full months on the active roster).

Posted by Lucas at 04:22 PM

June 29, 2005

On Teixeira

In response to what is currently the most popular search string for my little web site:

Mark Teixeira’s contract expires at the end of 2005, but he will not be a free agent. He had enough promise (and Scott Boras-fueled clout) to sign a Major-League contract straight out of college. Signing such a contract does immediately use an option if the player is sent to the minors, but it does not hasten free agency. Texas still owns him for six years of ML service. 2005 is his third season in Texas, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible beginning next season and for the years 2007-2008. Barring a trade, 2009 will be the first year Teixeira can play elsewhere.

Posted by Lucas at 12:31 AM

June 23, 2005

Silver Lining

As dreadfully as the Ranger starters performed in getting swept by the Angels, the often shaky relief corps pitched very well. John Wasdin did allow all three of the runners he inherited from Chan Ho Park to score, but otherwise he and his six compadres at least gave the Rangers a smidgen of hope.

Category	Starters	Relievers
Innings	9.0	15.0
Runs	19	0
Hits	30	13
Homers	3	0
Walks	5	1
Strikeouts	6	5
Hit Batters	1	0
Baserunners / 9 IP	17.0	8.4
Average on Balls in Play	.540	.333
Inherited Runners Scored	---	3 of 3

Posted by Lucas at 01:59 AM

June 01, 2005

May Statistical Review

After scuffling through April, Texas finished May with a nine-game winning streak to wrest first place from the Angels. The Rangers played only nine games against teams with a winning record and went 5-4; against losers they won 13 and lost only three. Teams that aspire to postseason play mustn't just play well against bad teams, they must destroy them. Sweeping the likes of Kansas City and Houston permits the Rangers to have a bad series or two down the road without losing too much ground. May established Texas as a legitimate playoff contender.

Actual Win-Loss	18.0 - 7.0 (.720)
"Pythagorean" Win-Loss	18.9 - 6.1 (.757)
Win-Loss based on offensive and defensive peripherals	16.7 - 8.3 (.670)

	Rangers	Opponents
Batting Line	.286/.345/.517	.262/.316/.394
Steals / Caught	9 / 5	11 / 6
Runs scored per game	6.28	3.56
Expected runs based on peripherals	5.93	4.16
Team OPS	.862	.710
Park Factor (hitting)	1.017
Adjusted League OPS	.761
Team OPS+	125

Team ERA	3.51
Park Factor (pitching)	.956
Adjusted League ERA	4.18
Team ERA+	117

	Team	Rotation	Bullpen
Team ERA	3.51	3.55	3.42
Component ERA	3.65	4.25	3.17
Component ERA adjusted for .301 average on balls hit into play	3.88	4.13	3.28
Team WHIP	1.30	1.34	1.20
Team K / 9	5.53	4.89	6.98
Team BB / K ratio	2.14	1.91	2.65
Rotation innings per start		6.19

Batting

Last month, I mentioned that Texas couldn't contend if the offense scored fewer than five runs per game. In April and most of last year, the Texas offense batted much worse most people think. Essentially, the Rangers have supplied mediocre production outside of their long-ball ability. In May, Texas justified the hype, hitting (yes) 46 homers along with a shiny .286 batting average, plenty of doubles and even eight triples. Scoring six runs per game will earn Texas some additional baseball in mid-October.

Having said that, the offense's overall performance has masked some serious problems. The catcher spot is a black hole (.240/.286/.337). While Barajas has excelled at throwing out baserunners and (as far as I know) has handled the pitching staff capably, he has never batted well outside of that unconscious six-week stretch in 2004 on which his entire reputation and salary is seemingly based. Ranger catchers are "only" 22nd in OPS among the 30 Major League teams, but that speaks more to the state of catching league-wide. As long as Texas wins, Barajas and Alomar will stay. "But they're winning" is a simplistic but irrefutable argument against change.

The other problem is center field. Just as in 2004, Laynce Nix started hot (.371/.389/.543 in April) and cooled to an unacceptable level thereafter (.237/.253/.421 in May). His demotion to AAA ostensibly instilled a more disciplined plate approach, but he has all of three walks in 115 plate appearances, an atrocious ratio even for him. Hacktastic batters like Alfonso Soriano can get away with this approach because they bat .300 with 30 homers. Nix does neither. Nix is only 24, and perhaps judging him this harshly is unfair. Still, he is well into his third season and has shown absolutely zero progress at the plate. Texas has no in-house improvement and will prioritze pitching in any upcoming trade talks (as they should). In 2006, they'll have to consider a change unless Nix matures over the coming months.

Best Hitter: Mark Teixeira (.324/.377/.610). Kevin Mench slugged .708 but in 33 fewer at-bats. Additional kudos to Richard Hidalgo (.307/.398/.653), who hit himself back into an everyday player.
Worst Hitter: The two-headed catching monster of Rod Barajas (.218/.262/.329) and Sandy Alomar (.233/.281/.233).

Pitching

Ranger starters won an astounding fourteen games, including a franchise-record nine-in-a-row and counting, while posting a 3.55 ERA. Yes, Kenny Rogers is old, but he seems to think it's May of 1905: he offered an 0.98 ERA while striking out only 3.5 batters per nine innings. He also permitted a miniscule .224 average on balls in play. That won't persist, but why argue with success? Maybe Texas should arrange another press leak to anger him some more, and he won't ever allow a run again. Just as important is Chris Young's emergence. Young still doesn't throw efficiently enough to go deep into games but otherwise has pitched brilliantly, finishing May with a 1.42 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

As with the offense, the aggregate numbers hide some discomfort. Chan Ho Park regressed from his solid April, allowing a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA in five starts. Still, the Rangers don't expect him to win games by himself, and relative to his past even a 5.40 ERA is celebratory. Ryan Drese continues to be a cause for concern. He pitched no better in May than in April and is on pace to allow 248 hits with only 51 strikeouts. Might Texas option him at some point, even though he would have to go through waivers? They might; his departure would relieve Texas of the $1.75 million owed to him in 2006. After several terrible performances, Pedro Astacio is now pitching for his job every time he takes the mound. Ricardo Rodriguez could return to the Majors before long.

The bullpen righted itself after a shockingly bad April. Carlos Almanzar, Ryan Bukvich, and Matt Riley are gone, and replacements Nick Regilio, Kameron Loe and Joaquin Benoit have pitched well in their absence. Benoit has yet to allow a run in ten innings and is slowly working toward more high-leverage innings.

Best Pitcher: Rogers, obviously. Honorable mention to Chris Young.
Worst Pitcher: Pedro Astacio (7.32 ERA, five homers allowed in 19.2 innings). Dishonorable mention to Ron Mahay (12.00 ERA, 2.17 WHIP)

Posted by Lucas at 11:32 AM

May 01, 2005

April Statistical Review

Texas posted a 12-13 record in April and the statistics validate their record. Texas has pitched better than their 5.10 ERA would suggest, but on the whole they’ve played like a .500 ball club or thereabouts.

Actual Standings	12.0 - 13.0 (.480)
"Pythagorean" Standings	11.2 - 13.8 (.450)
Standings based on offensive and defensive peripherals	12.4 - 12.6 (.496)

	Rangers	Opponents
Batting Line	.258/.322/.430	.273/.347/.406
Steals / Caught	11 / 3	6 / 7
Runs scored per game	4.92	5.44
Expected runs based on peripherals	4.77	4.81
Team OPS	.752	.753
Park Factor (hitting)	1.002
Adjusted League OPS	.739
Team OPS+	102

Team ERA	5.10
Park Factor (pitching)	.965
Adjusted League ERA	4.19
Team ERA+	82

	Team	Rotation	Bullpen
Team ERA	5.10	4.41	6.50
Component ERA	4.49	4.12	6.15
Component ERA adjusted for .301 average on balls hit into play	4.43	4.14	5.04
Team WHIP	1.50	1.38	1.73
Team K / 9	5.66	5.01	7.00
Team BB / K ratio	1.45	1.53	1.36
Rotation innings per start		6.04

Batting
Texas has scored about four more runs than expected based on a batting line of .258/.322/.430 with 11 steals and three caught. The Ballpark has played neutral to hitters so far in terms of OPS. That won’t last, but supposing it does, Texas still has no chance to contend if they continue to score under five runs per game. Even with league-wide offense down from previous years, their .258 average and .322 OBP won’t suffice. Their walk rate is adequate, but otherwise this team lives and dies by the home run.

Best Hitter: David Dellucci, even with only 17 starts.
Worst Hitter: Richard Hidalgo, or, if you like, Gary Matthews.

Pitching
The staff allowed a mere fourteen homers in 24 games but also surrendered a league-worst 54 doubles, an unsightly 2.25 per game (about 1.5 per game is typical). Texas permitted a slugging percentage of only .406 but still permitted 5.44 runs per game, almost two-thirds of a run per game more than expected. Opponents are slugging only .410 with runners in scoring position but are also batting .293. Singles score runs, too.

Texas used only five starters in April and finished with a respectable 4.41 ERA and just over six innings per start. In a complete reversal of last year, the weak link is the bullpen, which has a walked five batters per nine innings. While the peripherals indicate the bullpen ERA should be over 5.00 instead of 6.50, that 1.73 WHIP tells a truer, uglier tale. Losing Francisco Francisco and Carlos Almanzar (effectively, if not corporeally) has crippled the bullpen, forcing Doug Brocail into high-leverage situations and dropping fifteen innings into the wild hands of Matt Riley and Ryan Bukvich.

Best Pitcher: Kenny Rogers, though his 2.67 ERA is a red herring. Pedro Astacio gets honorable mention.
Worst Pitcher: Matt Riley, because Carlos Almanzar has other things on his mind.

Posted by Lucas at 09:09 PM

April 15, 2005

Statistical Outlook

Texas through 10 games:

Actual won-loss record: 4-6, .400
Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and allowed (“Pythagorean�): 4.4-5.6, .440
Expected won-loss record based on offensive and defensive peripherals: 5.5-4.5, .550

Team batting line: .267/.340/.437
Team OPS: .777
Steals/Caught: 4/1
Runs scored per game: 5.30
Expected runs scored per game: 5.15

Opponent’s batting line: .267/.333/.409
Opponent’s OPS: .742
Steals/Caught: 4/3
Runs scored per game: 6.00
Expected runs scored per game: 4.63

Team ERA: 5.42
Component ERA: 4.27
Component ERA adjusted for balls in play: 4.40

Estimated park factor: 107
Adjusted park factor based on unequal games at home vs road: 103
Team OPS+: 103
Team ERA+: 85

Proof that anything can happen in ten games. Texas has a better OBP and substantially better slugging percentage than its opponents but has been outscored by seven runs. As is often the case, luck or skill or fate with runners on base tells the tale: Texas is batting a meager .239/.333/.337 in this category, opponents a robust .298/.391/.457 with 17 walks and only 12 strikeouts.

Texas pitching in general and the bullpen in particular have been awful, again mostly because of generosity once runners reach base. Compared to 2004, the current staff has decreased the opponents’ OPS by .032 but allowed an additional 1.1 runs per game. This cannot last. Expect Ranger opponents to hit worse with runners on base but better overall.

Posted by Lucas at 05:40 PM

January 26, 2005

It Occurred To Me...

As far as I can tell, Francisco Cordero has the longest tenure on the current 40-man roster. Cordero, as you probably know, came to Texas in November 1999 as part of the notorious Juan Gonzalez trade.

If I'm right about Cordero, nobody on the Rangers' last division-winning club is still on the 40-man roster, not even anyone who was a minor-leaguer at the time.

Life is short.

Posted by Lucas at 11:49 PM

November 12, 2004

Showalter wins Manager of the Year award

The award traditionally goes to whoever manages the team that came out of nowhere, regardless of the manager's actual role in surpassing expectations, but in this case Showalter deserves it.

I worry about the future of this team. Showalter's increased role in the personnel decisions bodes ill, and he has never aged gracefully within an organization. That said, he did a fine job between the lines, and his handling of the bullpen and patchwork rotation was brilliant.

Posted by Lucas at 09:17 AM

November 02, 2004

Status of Players on 40-man Roster

SIGNED FOR 2005:

Francisco Cordero, Ron Mahay, Chan Ho Park, Kenny Rogers, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Michael Young

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE:

Carlos Almanzar, Joaquin Benoit, Rod Barajas, Gary Matthews, Alfonso Soriano,

INDENTURED SERVANTS:

R.A. Dickey, Juan Dominguez, Ryan Drese, Frank Francisco, Travis Hughes, Kameron Loe, Edwin Moreno, Erasmo Ramirez, Nick Regilio, Ricardo Rodriguez, Brian Shouse, Chris Young, Ryan Wing, Gerald Laird, Jason Bourgeois, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Mench, Ramon Nivar, Laynce Nix

FREE AGENTS:

Doug Brocail, Jeff Nelson, Jay Powell, Jeff Zimmerman, Manny Alexander, Andy Fox, Brad Fullmer, Herbert Perry, Eric Young, David Dellucci

(List Updated Nov 19)

Posted by Lucas at 10:12 AM

October 28, 2004

Six-Year Minor League Free Agents

Per Baseball America:

Phil Akens - RHP
Ray Beasley - LHP
Erick Burke - LHP
Brad Clontz - RHP
Michael Curry - OF
Ryan Dittfurth - RHP
Jose Marte - IF
Tydus Meadows - OF
Brad Miadich - RHP
Julio Mosquera - C
Santiago Perez - SS
Jeff Pickler - 2B
Enny Reyes - LHP
Billy Sylvester - RHP

Largely organizational soldiers and NRIs who never reached the Majors. So far as I know, Dittfurth is the only player to have ever spent time on the Ranger 40-man roster.

Posted by Lucas at 09:23 PM