The Ranger Rundown

July 18, 2008

PitchFX On Eric Hurley: Pitch Location And Results

Eric Hurley allowed homers at a 4.4% rate in 75 AAA innings, nearly double the league average. In four MLB starts, his homer rate is 3.2%, better but still sub-par. The book on Hurley is his tendency to work high in the zone (or his inability to work low, if you prefer) results in too many fly balls, hence too many homers and other hard-hit balls.

With PitchFX, we can examine the relationship between his pitch location and opponents’ success at the plate. In this case, I’m focusing solely on balls hit into play (including homers), of which there are 75. One was a bunt single, and two have no pitch data, leaving 72 balls for study.

Caveat: Hurley hasn’t pitched enough to generate respectable sample sizes. I’m doing this exercise because I think it’s interesting, but how he’s performed so far doesn’t necessarily portend his future.

The split between high and low pitches is exactly 36:36. As shown in the graph, a few hitters have hit a ball into play on a pitch higher than the top of the strike zone, while no hitter has done so on a pitch below the bottom of the zone.

1. What type of pitch is crossing the plate high or low?

As expected, most of the high pitches are fastballs, and the low pitches contain a heavier proportion of sliders.

Pitch Height	FA	SL	CH
< 2.6'	50%	39%	9%
> 2.6'	69%	19%	11%

2. Are high pitches resulting in more fly balls?

Yes. The vertical midrange of the strike zone of hitters faced by Hurley is 2.52 feet. At 2.60 feet is a pretty strong delineation in fly ball tendency:

Pitch Height	Grounder	Line Drive	OF Fly	IF Fly
< 2.6'	33%	31%	33%	3%
> 2.6'	11%	14%	64%	11%

The ratio for all pitches is 22% grounders, 22% line drives, 48% outfield flies, and 8% infield flies.

3. Are high pitches resulting in more hits?

More home runs, yes (two on high strikes, one low). More hits, no. Opponents are batting a meager .194 when making contact on high strikes and a robust .389 on low strikes. The corresponding slugging percentages are .389 and .667.

What’s hurting Hurley most so far is a 31% line drive rate on low pitches. Opponents are batting .727 and slugging 1.000 on those liners, which sounds absurdly high but is actually near the average for the league.

Conversely, opponents are also hitting only .130 (3-for-23) on fly balls on high pitches. He’s also generated four infield flies (nearly as surely an out as a strikeout) on high pitches, only one on a low pitch.

So, Hurley should ditch the slider and concentrate on heat up in the zone where it’s safe.

Just kidding. Hurley can’t expect to turn 87% of high-strike flies into outs in the long run. Several pitchers (for example, Scott Kazmir, Rich Harden, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver) are succeeding with very low ground ball rates, but they also have extremely high strikeout rates (Kazmir, Harden) or are no worse than above-average both in walks and Ks (Baker, Weaver).

At present, Hurley has a respectable walk rate (7.4%) but a below-average strikeout rate (12.6%), and 70% of his balls in play have been liners or outfield flies. Despite his 3.57 ERA, that’s a pretty toxic brew. He’ll need some combination of more strikeouts and more grounders to succeed in the long run.

Posted by Lucas at 05:42 PM

July 14, 2008

Some Quick Research on C.J. Wilson

33 MLB relievers have received at least 10 save opportunities in 2008. Here's how C.J. Wilson ranks in various categories:

Category		Rank
Average	.258	25
On-Base Percentage	.348	25
Slugging Percentage	.422	26
WHIP	1.57	27
HR %	0.8%	24
BB+HBP %	12.3%	24
SO %	19.3%	22
Pitches / Batter	4.1	22
Pitches / Inning	18.7	29

How Wilson ranks when facing his first batter:

Category		Rank
Average	.293	24
On-Base Percentage	.341	22
Slugging Percentage	.537	31

Based on a comparison of Wilson's peripheral stats to the other 32 relievers, the following closers are having seasons most similar to Wilson in 2008 (from most to least simlar):

J. Isringhausen
R. Franklin
B. Wilson
G. Sherrill
J. Valverde
M. Corpas
B. Ryan
S. Torres

And the least similar relievers:

M. Rivera
J. Soria
B. Morrow
J. Papelbon
B. Wagner
J. Nathan
B. Lidge
B. Jenks

Regarding Wilson’s personality: His flamboyance and occasional indifference to PR protocols will always make him an outsized target of affection when he’s performing well. Conversely, when he’s faltering, his comments/hair/hobbies/etc. will face extreme ridicule. This can be expressed algebraically as follows:

P = Performance [range of 0-10, 5 = average]
WL = Wilson Love [infinitely positive or negative, measured in picocuries]

WL = ( P – 5 ) x Modifier,

where Modifier > 1

I have yet to define this modifier numerically. It might be exponential rather than multiplicative.

Posted by Lucas at 06:01 PM

June 29, 2008

Clarifications

Randy Galloway, this morning:

If you are bringing up a Chris Davis... shouldn’t it be as an everyday player? Does that make sense, even if holding them out at times against certain pitchers is also acceptable? But if there is a thought, or if the minor league stats show Davis might struggle a tad with lefties, then keep him in OKC to face those lefties, and not have him sit for those up here. Any doubt that creeps into Davis’ mind that he might not be trusted against lefties is a doubt that absolutely should not be there at this stage of a career.”

Chris Davis’s career splits:

-	vs. Left	vs. Right
Average	.315	.299
On-Base	.376	.349
Slugging	.573	.602
HR / PA	5.1%	6.9%
BB / PA	7.3%	7.3%
SO / PA	24.1%	25.4%

Chris Davis’s splits in 2008:

-	vs. Left	vs. Right
Average	.293	.343
On-Base	.333	.398
Slugging	.552	.665
HR / PA	6.3%	7.1%
BB / PA	4.8%	8.6%
SO / PA	27.0%	21.1%

Davis's BB/SO ratio has broken down against lefties this season. The rest is peachy. If Davis is having self-esteem issues versus lefties, he's hiding them well.

Idle thought: Under this philosophy, would Hank Blalock (lifetime .224/.279/.345 versus lefties) ever have become a Major Leaguer?

“Why is [Brandon Boggs] up here, playing maybe twice a week, when the kid shows definite potential? Boggs has been an asset for the Rangers when he has played, but is he benefiting in the long run from all the sitting?”

Boggs has never appeared in fewer than three games in any seven-day period:

Posted by Lucas at 05:52 PM

June 13, 2008

Analyzing Eric Hurley

Eric Hurley allowed four runs in six innings in his Major League debut on Thursday. His first start was, like many of his AAA appearances, “great except for the homers.” Hurley has allowed home runs at nearly double the league rate this season, resulting in decent overall performances when the rest of his game is on and disasters when he’s off.

By design, Hurley drew the worst offense in the American League as an opponent. The Royals have scored fewer than four runs per game and against righties are batting .256/.306/.368 with a 6% walk rate. Still, they’re not the New Orleans Zephyrs. Hurley made some mistakes and was duly punished. That said, Hurley showed admirable poise on the mound, worked efficiently, and often lived up to his considerable potential.

The magic of pitchFX encourages (nay, demands) excruciating detailed analyses of his performance. Let’s go:

Pitch Types and Movement:

After leading off with 15 consecutive fastballs, Hurley mixed in a slider and occasional changeup. He threw 68 of 92 pitches for strikes and didn’t walk a batter. Here’s his pitch selection with speeds and strike percentages:

Pitch Type	Thrown	Average Initial Speed	Minimum	Maximum	% Strike or Contact
Fastball	59	91.1	86.9	94.1	68%
Changeup	10	80.2	78.5	82.5	60%
Slider	23	84.5	80.1	86.9	78%

The next chart displays the movement of each pitch relative to a ball thrown without spin. This particular chart doesn’t show pitch location, just movement.

On the vertical axis, a positive number represents a the ball that doesn’t descend as much as a spin-free throw. A negative number indicates more drop. On the horizontal axis, a negative number indicates the ball tails toward a right-handed batter or away from a lefty swinger.

The backspin on fastballs retards their downward descent, so they show more vertical “rise,” and they usually tail into a right-handed batter (if thrown by a righty like Hurley). Sliders tend to cut away from righties and have minimal rise. Some pitchers’ sliders have extra downward movement in a “slurvy” fashion, but not Hurley’s. Indeed, his sliders often gave the appearance of rising upon release before snapping leftward. (Note that nobody’s pitches actually rise.) A curve, if Hurley threw one, would show up below the slider, indicating the most downward movement.

Vertical Location:

Vertical Location	ALL	FASTBALLS
Below Strike Zone	9	3
Lower Third in Zone	16	7
Middle Third in Zone	31	24
Upper Third in Zone	25	16
Above Strike Zone	11	9

Hurley clearly favored the upper part of the strike zone, particularly with fastballs. I constantly read of how he’s attempting to locate more pitches on the lower part of the plate, but only 10 of his 59 fastballs touched the lower third of the plate or below. Furthermore, most of them don’t look like failed efforts to aim low. Plain and simple, he’s gearing up and throwing a standard “rising” fastball.

Horizontal Location:

Away, away, away. 31 of Hurley’s pitches missed on the outside part of the plate compared to just six inside. The umpire’s slightly off-center strike zone might have played a role in Hurley’s location.

Hoizontal Location in Strike Zone	ALL
Inside Strike Zone (toward hitter)	6
Inside Third of Zone	16
Middle Third of Zone	18
Outside Third of Zone	21
Outside Strike Zone (away from hitter)	31

Lefties Versus Righties:

Opponents	Pitches	Fastball	Changeup	Slider
to Lefties	69	71%	14%	14%
to Righties	23	43%	0%	57%
ALL	92	64%	11%	25%

Hurley threw more sliders than fastballs to right-handed batters, taking advantage of the slider’s tail away from the hitter. Against lefties, he focused on the fastball. All ten of his changeups were to lefties. The charts reconfirm his efforts to work the outer part of the plate. (Note: This chart and all that follow are displayed as if the viewer is the catcher looking toward the pitcher. A right-handed batter would stand on the left side of the chart. Anything within the “rulebook” strike zone is absolutely a strike. The wider zone is 2.8 inches (about the width of the ball) and represents everything that could (and probably should) be a strike. PitchFX isn’t perfect, and neither are umpires, so there’s some leeway in this zone.)

Results by Batted Ball Location:

The ground/fly data in a box score only refer to outs, and they characterize a harmless pop-up to the catcher no differently than a fly ball caught on the warning track. Hurley’s fly tendencies were on uncomfortably clear display. Excluding the bunt, 75% of Kansas City’s batted balls were outfield flies or line drives. Even in consideration of the two homers, he could have fared worse.

Balls in Play	Number	Opposing Average / Slugging
Grounder	3	.000 / .000
Line Drive	4	.750 / 1.000
Flyball	11	.182 / .909
Infield Pop	2	.000 / .000
Bunt	1	1.000 / 1.000

Results by Pitch Type:

Hurley’s ability to throw strikes and induce bad swings with his slider was most impressive. This is described in the next table. Conversely, batters swung at 27 fastballs and made contact (in play or foul) with all but two.

Results	Ball	Called Strike	Swinging Strike	Foul	Ground Out	Line Out	Fly Out	Infield Pop	Hit	HBP
Fastball	19	12	2	13	1	1	5	1	4	1
Changeup	4	1	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
Slider	5	3	5	3	1	0	3	1	2	0

The next charts display pitch locations and results by pitch type.

The fastball chart shows his tendency to work high and occasional control lapses. The two hits within the “rulebook” strike zone were home runs. Sometimes, as on those pitches, his fastball tended to float more than break. I didn’t create separate charts for batter handedness, but I should note that the umpire was squeezing Hurley a little on fastballs in toward left-handed batters and giving him an extra two or three inches on the outside part of the plate.

The slider is another story. The couple of them didn’t slide, and one slid too much, but on the whole it was his most effective pitch.

Hurley’s changeup was all over the place. That said, he didn’t suffer any damage from it.

Fastball Velocity:

Hurley’s 1st-inning fastballs rarely exceeded 90. During the last four innings, only one of his fastballs failed to surpass 90. He steadily touched 92-93 after the 2nd and showed no apparent fatigue.

Posted by Lucas at 08:38 AM

June 05, 2008

Draft Day Guess

Sent to Jamey Newberg via AIM at 1130 last night:

"[Yonder] alonso or [Ethan] martin. texas will select one of them. that's my guess. don't think crow or hosmer will be around."

Posted by Lucas at 11:00 AM

April 25, 2008

Two Minus Three Equals Negative Fun!

Texas pitchers have issued the most walks (114) and fewest strikeouts (109) in the American League. Thus, they’re headed for the dubious distinction of completing a season with more walks than strikeouts. That won’t happen, but it’s fun to think about (in a self-destructive way).

The Rangers are on pace for 767 strikeouts and 803 walks, a difference of -36. Until the mid-1950s, negative differences weren’t uncommon. No pitching staff has tallied fewer strikeouts than walks since the 1956 Philadelphia Athletics (-67).

In the last fifteen years, Milwaukee has the worst difference, +95, in the 144-game 1995 season. The worst full season belongs to the epically bad ’96 Tigers staff, which had 784 walks and 957 strikeouts, a difference of +173. Detroit allowed 6.8 runs per game, 1,015 for the season.

Regarding the 803 walk pace: It would be the third most in MLB history behind the notorious 1915 Athletics and the 1949 Yankees. The worst total in the last fifteen years (784) belongs to the aforementioned ’96 Tigers.

Regarding the 767 strikeout pace: The only team with fewer strikeouts in the last fifteen years is the 2003 Tigers with 764. They won 43 games.

And there’s more! Texas is also on pace to allow 1,690 hits. That’s well below the record of 1,993 by the 1930 Phillies, during an era when teams routinely hit .290. But, excluding Colorado, it would be the third-most since 1940, after the ’97 Athletics (1,734) and ’96 Tigers (1,699). Considering the offensive context, allowing 1,690 hits in 2008 might be worse. Incidentally, the 3rd and 4th worst post-1940 hit totals belong to the ’00 and ’01 Rangers.

Posted by Lucas at 06:11 PM

April 21, 2008

The Rundown Museum Proudly Displays...

Francisco Goya, Boston Devouring The Rangers, oil mural transferred to canvas, circa 1823.

Posted by Lucas at 02:50 PM

April 19, 2008

More Strike Calls

Regarding the irritation of Manny Ramirez and Milton Bradley at Jerry Meals's strike zone on Friday, Bradley at least has an argument. Here's the called strike in question:

The outer box is 2.9 inches (the width of the ball) around the rule-book strike zone. It gives the full benefit of the doubt to the umpire.

As for Manny...

...no telling what what going through his head.

Posted by Lucas at 02:16 PM

April 18, 2008

Close, But No Cigar

Benoit's final pitch to Marco Scutaro on Wednesday was Ball Four. Barely.

Posted by Lucas at 05:45 PM

March 27, 2008

Opening Day Lineup

Per T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com:

Manager Ron Washington has set his Opening Day lineup. Here is what [lefty] Erik Bedard will be facing

2B Ian Kinsler
SS Michael Young
CF Josh Hamilton
3B Hank Blalock
DH Milton Bradley
LF David Murphy
RF Marlon Byrd
C Gerald Laird
1B Ben Broussard

Yes, Washington is going with Blalock at cleanup hitter. He said Bradley is not ready for the role and Blalock has convinced him that he can bat cleanup. Frank Catalanotto will be on the bench for Opening Day but will still be out there plenty against right-handed pitchers. Broussard will bat last.

Texas has never had an Opening Day first baseman hit ninth. Here’s the previous 36 years:

1st -- 1
2nd -- 3
3rd -- 12
4th -- 3
5th -- 10
6th -- 4
7th -- 2
8th -- 1
9th -- 0

Mike Jorgensen played first and batted 8th for the ’79 edition. He’d been a good hitter in the early 70s, but with Texas he soon lost his job to a younger Pat Putnam. Putnam hit 7th on Opening Day 1981, and Lee Stevens hit 7th for the ’99 offensive juggernaut.

I don’t get too bent out of shape about lineups, but: May I cautiously suggest that if a team’s first baseman is batting ninth on Opening Day, something is wrong. The player shouldn’t be in the lineup... the regular 1B is hurt... the manager is misguided... something.

Regarding Washington’s quote about Bradley, Milton has started 62 games at cleanup and batted .338/.447/.546. He also has more career at-bats in the #3 spot than anywhere else. May I cautiously suggest that Bradley could hit higher than fifth, even coming off an injury.

Interestingly, in light of the common knowledge that Broussard doesn’t hit lefties, he has a better line against them than Blalock: .227/.290/.399 versus .226/.280/.349. At least in terms of historical performance, Texas inarguably will have its worst lefty hitter batting cleanup, Washington's convictions notwithstanding.

Maybe this kitteh picture will relieve my frustration:

Posted by Lucas at 01:55 PM

March 09, 2008

Wonderin'

Manager Ron Washington has been adamant [that Ben] Broussard will open the season playing regularly against lefties. The Rangers are expected to face Seattle lefty Erik Bedard on opening day.

"I don't want him coming to the park every day wondering if he's going to play against a left-hander," Washington said. "He's going to play against them until he proves he can't."

I know how to keep Broussard from wondering. You say: “NO! Ben, you will not start against lefties! Ever, ever, ever! When you do start, you will be pulled for a pinch-hitter if the opposition brings in a lefty. When you don’t start, you’ll pinch-hit against righty relievers.”

And then, for good measure, you type those words and tape them to his locker. Voila, no more wondering.

Was Broussard unfairly cast into a platoon role early in his career? I think not, but even if so, the fact remains that he’s 31 years old and hasn’t hit lefties well since A-ball. Broussard has a line of .227/.290/.399 in 387 MLB appearances against lefties. In 114 appearances in AA and AAA, he batted .214/.289/.369. 501 PAs with a sub-.300 on-base percentage may not provide absolute proof that he doesn’t deserve to play against lefties, but the evidence is beyond a reasonable doubt.

Meanwhile…

Player	Bats	MLB PA	MLB Line	AA-AAA PA	AA-AAA Line
Broussard	L	387	.227/.290/.399	114	.214/.289/.369
Botts	S	61	.283/.361/.358	380	.357/.432/.646
Shelton	R	256	.269/.323/.420	218	.277/.390/.495

…Chris Shelton and Jason Botts have far superior records in both the Majors and high minors against righties. Botts hasn’t translated his sterling AAA record into big-league success, but he’s at least shown some aptitude at reaching base against lefties. Also, unlike the placeholders Broussard and Shelton, Botts has a small chance at a role on the next good Rangers team.

How about Frank Catalanotto at first (career .248/.332/.344)? Stupid, right? Well, replacing Broussard with Frank Catalanotto gains 30 points of OBP but loses over 50 in slugging, pretty close to a wash. That only emphasizes the absurdity of this situation. Nobody would suggest starting Cat at first against lefties, yet the record indicates he’d be no worse than Broussard.

Washington has an obligation to start either the best players, or those who could become the best. Against lefties, Broussard fits neither description.

Posted by Lucas at 10:35 PM

February 27, 2008

Botts vs. Cruz, Expanded

(This is what I wrote for the Newberg Report recently plus bonus material at the end.)

Last week, Evan Grant reported the not-surprising news that Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz were essentially fighting for one roster spot. Who’s more likely to win?

Cruz has the defensive advantage, to be sure, though Botts can narrow that advantage if he proves capable of handling first base this spring. Also, for the first time in a while, Texas appears to have above-average outfield defense. With Josh Hamilton, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, and (eventually) Milton Bradley roaming the field, the need for another plus glove isn’t quite the high priority of previous years.

Both Botts and Cruz fared well in winter ball. Unfortunately, both Liga Dominicana and Liga Mexicana del Pacifico play roughly equivalent to AAA, which is to say their exploits were par for the course. With neither having established himself, the battle may come down to which player shows more in 50-or-so Spring Training at-bats. For a couple of reasons, that’s virtually a dice roll.

Here’s an example related to my “anything can happen in two weeks” math from last week. Say you know that in the long run, Michael Young will bat .300 and Ben Broussard will bat .250. What is the probability that Broussard will hit for a higher average than Young over the course of just 50 at-bats? The answer is 25%. If the “real” difference is only 25 points (say, .300 vs. .275), the weaker player will outhit the stronger one 35% of the time. If there’s a genuine difference between Botts and Cruz, 50 at-bats may not reveal the superior player, and they might wrongly suggest the inferior hitter is better. (These figures come via binomial probability distributions, in case you were curious.)

Also, especially in early March, Spring Training features a wider variety of competition than any regular-season league. You may see in a few weeks that Botts has outplayed Cruz statistically, but you might not know that Cruz faced Joe Saunders twice while Botts teed off against Joey Jo-Jo Shabadoo. Back in my ESPN days, I pleaded with people to ignore spring stats, which are worthless in terms of predicting regular-season performance. Remember when Matt Kata batted .375 last spring, then had about 140 consecutive hitless at-bats when the games counted? Good times.

So, spring stats are nearly meaningless… unless you have two guys fighting for one job. Then they’re all-important.

Result after X at-bats	25	50	100	200	500
'True' .300 batter has higher average	59.5%	67.4%	76.3%	85.80%	95.9%
'True' .300 hitter and 'true' .250 hitter are tied	11.7%	7.6%	4.6%	2.30%	0.6%
'True' .250 hitter has higher average	28.8%	25.0%	19.1%	11.90%	3.5%

These are the results of binomial probability distributions. The “true” .300 hitter has a 30% chance of getting a hit in any particular at-bat. It’s interesting that even after 500 at-bats, almost a full season, the .250 hitter has about a 1-in-25 chance of equaling or bettering the .300 hitter. After about 900 at-bats, the chance falls to 1-in-100. Just goes to show how long the long run can be, statistically speaking.

Posted by Lucas at 06:43 PM

February 01, 2008

Rangers Salary Commitments

As with my salary calculations here, I'm assuming all options are picked up/exercised and ignoring deferred and incentive money.

Concept stolen from USS Mariner, whose pretty chart is here.

Posted by Lucas at 01:31 AM

November 01, 2007

Ranger Pitcher Rate Lines and Hitter Counterparts

Here’s a fun little game: turning every pitcher’s performance into a comparable batter. Below are the opposing batting lines for Ranger pitcher who faced at least 100 batters. The three hitters who most closely match that line are listed to the right. If none of the three qualified for the batting title, I listed a fourth who did.

Just in case you're curious, I determined comparability by ranking the sums of the squares of the differences in average, on-base percentage, slugging, homer rate, walk rate, and strikeout rate between each Ranger pitcher and every hitter in baseball with at least 200 appearances. Now that I’ve put you to sleep with the previous sentence, the list:

Pitcher	Opposing AVG / OBP / SLG -- OPS	Opposing AVG+ / OBP+ / SLG+ -- OPS+	HR% -- BB% -- SO%	Most Comparable Batters ('07 Stats Only)
A. Otsuka	.218 / .269 / .277 -- .546	80 / 79 / 65 -- 44	0.0% -- 7.0% -- 18.0%	Nick Punto, Erick Aybar, Adam Kennedy
E. Gagne	.192 / .271 / .275 -- .546	71 / 80 / 65 -- 45	1.5% -- 9.1% -- 22.0%	Adam Kennedy, Mark Kotsay, Nick Punto
C. Wilson	.208 / .314 / .288 -- .602	77 / 93 / 68 -- 61	1.5% -- 12.1% -- 23.1%	Robert Fick, Nick Punto, Abraham Nunez
J. Benoit	.225 / .293 / .348 -- .641	83 / 86 / 82 -- 68	1.8% -- 8.5% -- 26.4%	Gerald Laird, Carlos Quentin, Royce Clayton, (Brandon Inge)
W. Littleton	.262 / .327 / .410 -- .737	97 / 96 / 97 -- 93	3.0% -- 8.0% -- 12.1%	Scott Rolen, Mike Sweeney, Carlos Ruiz, (Melky Cabrera)
J. Wright	.259 / .361 / .381 -- .742	96 / 106 / 90 -- 96	1.9% -- 12.9% -- 12.2%	David DeJesus, Johnny Damon, Esteban German
E. Volquez	.262 / .342 / .408 -- .750	97 / 101 / 96 -- 97	2.8% -- 10.3% -- 20.0%	Jim Edmonds, Jose Bautista, Tad Iguchi
F. Francisco	.258 / .370 / .385 -- .755	95 / 109 / 91 -- 100	1.2% -- 14.7% -- 18.9%	Scott Speizio, Willie Harris, Esteban German (Tad Iguchi)
B. McCarthy	.278 / .355 / .428 -- .783	103 / 105 / 101 -- 106	2.0% -- 10.7% -- 13.2%	Luis Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Brian Giles
K. Gabbard	.265 / .371 / .424 -- .795	98 / 109 / 100 -- 109	2.9% -- 13.2% -- 14.9%	JD Drew, Kevin Millar, Cliff Floyd
K. Millwood	.301 / .366 / .446 -- .812	111 / 108 / 105 -- 113	2.5% -- 8.6% -- 15.9%	Edward Encarnacion, Billy Butler, Randy Winn
K. Loe	.295 / .362 / .448 -- .810	109 / 107 / 106 -- 113	2.1% -- 9.3% -- 12.9%	Mike Lamb, Andre Ethier, Randy Winn
V. Padilla	.299 / .373 / .438 -- .811	110 / 110 / 103 -- 113	3.0% -- 9.3% -- 13.2%	Mike Lamb, Orlando Hudson, Randy Winn
W. Eyre	.291 / .368 / .451 -- .819	107 / 109 / 106 -- 115	2.7% -- 10.7% -- 14.0%	Mike Lamb, Orlando Hudson, Andre Ethier
A. Murray	.238 / .328 / .505 -- .833	88 / 97 / 119 -- 116	5.0% -- 12.5% -- 15.0%	Paul Konerko, Justin Morneau, Jermaine Dye
S. Feldman	.284 / .411 / .419 -- .830	105 / 121 / 99 -- 120	1.6% -- 17.1% -- 10.2%	Joe Mauer, Brian Roberts, Brian Giles
J. Rheinecker	.295 / .382 / .473 -- .855	109 / 113 / 112 -- 125	3.8% -- 11.9% -- 17.0%	Russ Martin, Manny Ramirez, Travis Buck
R. Tejeda	.290 / .390 / .499 -- .889	107 / 115 / 118 -- 133	3.9% -- 13.7% -- 15.7%	Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Frank Thomas
M. Wood	.321 / .373 / .533 -- .906	118 / 110 / 126 -- 136	4.0% -- 6.6% -- 11.0%	James Loney, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Lee

What stands out is the remarkable similarity between Vicente Padilla and Kam Loe. In 2008, one will be entrenched as Texas’s #2 starter, while the other will fight for a middle-relief role. Such is life.

Last year's list.

Posted by Lucas at 11:00 AM

October 01, 2007

Marlon Byrd, MVP

Click here for background. I CANNOT overemphasize the silliness of this statistic.

Player	Team Record When in Starting Lineup	Team Record When Out of Starting Lineup	Difference
Byrd	54-49 (.524)	21-38 (.356)	.168
Vazquez	44-41 (.518)	31-46 (.403)	.115
Botts	25-21 (.543)	50-66 (.431)	.112
Hairston	21-20 (.512)	54-67 (.446)	.066
Wilkerson	45-48 (.484)	30-39 (.435)	.049
Melhuse	8-8 (.500)	67-79 (.459)	.041
Metcalf	24-25 (.490)	51-62 (.451)	.038
Saltalamacchia	22-24 (.478)	53-63 (.457)	.021
Kata	9-10 (.474)	66-77 (.462)	.012
Laird	53-61 (.465)	22-26 (.458)	.007
Catalanotto	41-48 (.461)	34-39 (.466)	-.005
Lofton	35-44 (.443)	40-43 (.482)	-.039
Cruz	35-44 (.443)	40-43 (.482)	-.039
Blalock	24-32 (.429)	51-55 (.481)	-.053
Diaz	10-14 (.417)	65-73 (.471)	-.054
Kinsler	58-71 (.450)	17-16 (.515)	-.066
Sosa	45-58 (.437)	30-29 (.508)	-.072
Murphy	9-16 (.360)	66-71 (.482)	-.122
Teixeira	30-48 (.385)	45-39 (.536)	-.151

Posted by Lucas at 09:28 PM

September 26, 2007

Sammy Sosa, The Lucky Machine

Ron Washington on Sammy Sosa, last Wednesday:

"My recommendation is they bring him back. The guy is an RBI machine. He hasn't done anything not to bring him back.”

On a macro level, Sosa has performed pretty close to my expectations. Here’s his vital stats compared to my prediction from March 13 (prorated to the same number of appearances):

.235/.310/.430, 50 runs, 20 homers, 57 RBI -- my prediction
.252/.309/.464, 51 runs, 20 homers, 90 RBI -- actual performance

Yay, me. Except I pegged him for only 250 appearances, and… what’s with the RBI? He really is an RBI machine. This year. Next year, the team paying for the machine will experience profound disappointment, because his 90 runs plated are the result of two highly unlikely occurrences:

1) Sosa has been extraordinarily fortunate this season in terms of how often he comes to the plate with runners in scoring position:

Prorating these percentages to his 442 plate appearances in 2007, Sosa has batted in 23 more RISP situations than his career average and 17 more than his career best.

Concurrently, Sosa has also enjoyed a huge increase in bases-loaded opportunities:

One possible explanation is that Sosa spent 1993-2004 in the NL, where pitchers hit and scoring is depressed. For several reasons, this explanation doesn’t work. On a league-wide level, the difference between RISP situations in the American versus the National League is only about 0.3%. Also, in his forgettable season in Baltimore, his proportion of RISP situations fell comfortably within the bounds set by his many years in Chicago.

Furthermore, Sosa’s 35% proportion of RISP PAs to total PAs exceeds the middle-of-the-order hitters for the Yankees, MLB’s best offense:

Matsui – 32.8%
Rodriguez – 32.2%
Abreu – 29.7%

How about Boston’s Ortiz and Ramirez?

Ramirez – 32.5%
Ortiz – 29.0%

What about Texas’s best hitters (here or departed)?

Teixeira – 31.0%
Young – 28.8%

Sosa bests them all. 111 AL hitters have at least 100 appearances with a runner in scoring position. Sosa ranks third – behind Garret Anderson and Emil Brown(?!) – in the proportion of RISP situations to total appearances. Relative to the American League as a whole, the best hitters on the best teams, and even his glorious past, he’s been darned lucky.

2) Sosa has been extraordinarily adept this season at hitting with runners in scoring position. However, Sosa has displayed NO special ability to hit in the clutch during his career.

From 1993 through this season (excluding 2006), Sosa has averaged .278 overall and .283 with runners in scoring position. During those 14 seasons, Sosa’s RISP average has strayed from his overall average by more than 30 points on only three occasions: 1993, 1995, and 2007. This season, Sosa is batting .336/.390/.597 with runners in scoring position; his RISP average has exceeded his overall average by a remarkable 83 points.

Similarly, Sosa has a career .553 RISP slugging percentage and a .552 overall percentage. This season, his RISP slugging is 133 points above his overall slugging.

As a result of this prowess, Sosa has plated 66 baserunners (excluding himself on homers) in 154 RISP situations, equal to 0.43 runners per plate appearance. His average during 1993-2007 is 0.32. For the sake of argument, assume Sosa plays in 2008 and receives the same number of appearances, a typical proportion of RISP situations, and drives in runs at a typical rate. How many baserunners would he plate?

Actual 2007 RISP performance: 442 PAs x 34.8% RISP x 0.429 RBI per RISP PA
= 66 baserunners driven in

“Average” RISP performance: 442 PAs x 29.0% RISP x 0.319 RBI per RISP PA
= 41 baserunners driven in

Suddenly, Sosa loses 25 RBI in RISP situations. If Sosa had only 65 RBI this season instead of 90, would Washington and others still clamor for his return? Note also that this calculation assumes no further age-related decline, a dubious assumption to make of a soon-to-be 39-year-old.

Just to clarify, I’m not discounting his achievements this year. Runs batted in are partly a function of opportunity, and Sosa has taken advantage. For a guy with a .309 OBP, he’s been pretty useful. He can still hit lefties, and I was surprised that Texas found no takers for him during the trading window. He’s also acted professionally throughout the season and didn’t complain when relegated to the bench.

So thank him and send him on his way, because next year, if given another 450 appearances, he’s far more likely to be an out machine than an RBI machine.

Posted by Lucas at 01:27 PM

September 03, 2007

What's Ailing Jason Botts?

At the halfway point of his trial period, Jason Botts is batting .202/.296/.288. Statistically, I see three problems:

1) Botts leads the team in pitches per plate appearances with 4.4, but his patience hasn’t resulted in enough walks to mitigate his batting average. Though he’s drawn more walks recently, his overall rate of 9.3% barely surpasses the AL rate of 8.5%.

For that matter, the second and third most patient Rangers, Brad Wilkerson and Ramon Vazquez, have walk rate of 8.9% and 9.6%, respectively. The correlation between pitches per appearance and walks is strong but not absolute; Brandon Inge, Felipe Lopez, and Bill Hall are examples of “patient” players with only low-to-average walk rates.

2) Botts has simply been terrible at turning first-pitch swings into fair balls.

He’s swung at 32% of first pitches, more often than I would have guessed and easily among the upper half among Rangers with at least 100 appearances. The 1st pitch is money for most hitters -- the AL is batting .342 and slugging .545 when putting the ball in play on the 1st pitch. Botts has been no exception, batting .429 and slugging .857.

Sad to say, Botts has only seven one-pitch appearances despite swinging at 35 first pitches. His 20% contact rate is less than one-half the team average of 42%.

Player	First-Pitch Balls In Play / First Pitches Swung At
Jerry Hairston	55%
Kenny Lofton	53%
Frank Catalanotto	52%
Travis Metcalf	51%
Michael Young	50%
Gerald Laird	50%
Ian Kinsler	48%
Ramon Vazquez	46%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	43%
Average Among Group	42%
Mark Teixeira	41%
Brad Wilkerson	39%
Sammy Sosa	37%
Marlon Byrd	37%
Victor Diaz	32%
Hank Blalock	32%
Nelson Cruz	29%
Jason Botts	20%

After first pitches, the Rangers as a whole have an 0-1 count in 49% of their appearances. The AL average is 47%. For Botts, it’s 60%.

3) Following from 2), Botts lead the team in percentages of plate appearances reaching an 0-2 count, which is death to hitters. The AL is batting .183/.215/.264 after beginning 0-2.

Player	% of PAs with 0-2 Count
Jason Botts	28%
Marlon Byrd	26%
Victor Diaz	24%
Travis Metcalf	23%
Jerry Hairston	22%
Michael Young	21%
Nelson Cruz	21%
Ramon Vazquez	20%
Average Among Group	20%
Ian Kinsler	20%
Brad Wilkerson	19%
Sammy Sosa	19%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	18%
Mark Teixeira	18%
Gerald Laird	16%
Frank Catalanotto	15%
Hank Blalock	15%
Kenny Lofton	15%

Too often, Botts’s lengthy plate appearances result from laying off junk after starting in an 0-1 or 0-2 hole. That’s not a terribly productive use of his patience.

One odd source of comfort is Botts’s career. He’s started slowly at every level except during his rookie season in 2000. Unfortunately, this time he probably has only one month to heat up.

Posted by Lucas at 08:53 PM

August 23, 2007

Wheeeeeeeee!

Posted by Lucas at 12:52 AM

August 01, 2007

40-Man and Organizational Depth Chart Updated

Texas now has only three potential free agents: Jerry Hairston, Sammy Sosa and Brad Wilkerson.

Posted by Lucas at 06:37 PM

July 21, 2007

Brad Wilkerson, MVP

One of the more preposterous ideas polluting the newspapers and airwaves recently was of the team “showing it could win without Mark Teixeira.” See, here, here and here for examples. Within that statement resides the implication that Teixeira might not be so important to the team or that Texas is better off without him. After all, the Rangers went 16-12 while Teixeira nursed his sore quad but only 21-39 with him.

I don’t believe I need to tell you this, gentle reader, but just in case: For a statistic to have meaning and value, it must have uniform applicability. For example, one can calculate batting averages for all hitters, compare them, and learn something meaningful about the players.

Thus, for the difference in the Rangers’ record with and without Teixeira to have meaning, the difference must also apply logically to other players. Here’s a table of “with vs. without” records for all Ranger hitters who’ve started and missed at least 15 games:

Player	Team Record When in Starting Lineup	Team Record When Out of Starting Lineup	Difference
Wilkerson	28-29 (.491)	13-26 (.333)	.158
Vazquez	20-20 (.500)	21-35 (.375)	.125
Metcalf	11-10 (.524)	30-45 (.400)	.124
Byrd	22-23 (.489)	19-32 (.373)	.116
Hairston	17-17 (.500)	24-38 (.387)	.113
Kata	7-8 (.467)	34-47 (.420)	.047
Stewart	5-6 (.455)	36-49 (.424)	.031
Catalanotto	22-28 (.440)	19-27 (.413)	.027
Lofton	32-43 (.427)	9-12 (.429)	-.002
Diaz	10-14 (.417)	31-41 (.431)	-.014
Blalock	15-24 (.385)	26-31 (.456)	-.072
Sosa	31-46 (.403)	10-9 (.526)	-.124
Cruz	13-25 (.342)	28-30 (.483)	-.141
Kinsler	29-45 (.392)	12-10 (.545)	-.154
Laird	30-46 (.395)	11-9 (.550)	-.155
Teixeira	25-44 (.362)	16-11 (.593)	-.230

If you honestly believe in a correlation between Teixeira’s absence and the team’s improved record, you’d better be willing to accept Brad Wilkerson as the team MVP.

Yes, Teixeira has acted like he wants the next flight out to another franchise. Yes, yet another glacial start on his behalf contributed to the early-season struggles. Neither offsets the fact that he’s a very good player who helps his team to win.

Texas allowed 5.9 runs per game before Teixeira got hurt and 4.4 per game during his absence. We have causation!

Posted by Lucas at 02:35 PM

July 14, 2007

.199/.245/.393

Sammy Sosa's batting line when runners are not in scoring position. That's in 208 appearances.

Posted by Lucas at 02:59 PM

July 13, 2007

Swing, Batter!

There’s no such thing as an empty .538 slugging percentage, but Victor Diaz sure gave it a try with his .259 OBP. Diaz walked once in 104 plate appearances and holds the following honors:

-- First on team in percentage of all pitches swung at (57%, next is Blalock at 52%)

-- First in percentage of strikes swung at (82%, tied with Blalock)

-- First in percentage of first pitches swung at (40%, tied with Blalock, no one else above 32%)

-- First in percentage of strikeouts swinging (91%, next closest are Young and Hairston at 83%)

-- Last in percentage of swings making contact (68%, tied with Sosa, no one else below 74%)

-- Last in percentage of counts reaching 3-0 (2%, next are several at 3%)

-- Last in percentage of counts reaching 3-1 (1%, next is Blalock at 6%)

Posted by Lucas at 06:41 PM

July 12, 2007

Draft Update: Rounds 1-5

1. Blake Beavan (RHP, high school)

Unsigned. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explained the Beavan issue in detail yesterday. The operative phrase for 2007 and the future is “slot money.” Major League Baseball has recommended signing bonuses for several years, but more recently the league office has increased its oversight.

First, a team must “consult” with the commissioner’s office when it wants to sign a player for an above-slot bonus. The consultation involves Bud Selig doing a really terrible Vito Corleone impersonation, so teams avoid it if at all possible and are toeing the line thus far.

Second, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has shortened the negotiation period for draft picks and improved compensation for unsigned picks. The changes were effected to give teams more leverage, and so far they have. Bonuses for signed first rounders are down 10% or more from 2006.

Understandably, some players and their representatives are peeved at the new math. As noted by Grant, Beavan is asking for a bit over $1.5 million from a slot valued at $1.4 million. He’s been deemed a middle first-rounder since February, so there’s no issue of deserving top ten money.

The signing deadline is five weeks from today, and only 13 of the top 30 have signed. I won’t worry about Beavan until we’re into August.

1. Michael Main (RHP, high school)

Signed and batting .217/.269/.261 for rookie-league Arizona. He’s expected to take the mound within a couple of weeks.

1a. Julio Borbon (OF, college junior)

Unsigned. No news, no rumors, no nothing. Borbon can return to Tennessee for his senior year, but everything I’ve read about him suggests he’s ready to turn pro. He’s a Scott Boras client.

1a. Neil Ramirez (RHP, high school)

Unsigned. Ramirez entered the season considered a potential first rounder and was ranked 25th on Baseball America’s prospect list. A minor back injury and inconsistent performance dropped him to 44th on draft day. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus claimed Ramirez is asking for above-slot money. I don’t know what Ramirez is seeking, but the difference between his position and the bottom of the first round is $300,000-$400,000. He’s committed to Georgia Tech.

1a. Tommy Hunter (RHP, college sophomore)

Unsigned. According to the Indianapolis Star, Hunter has avoided the college summer league but has been throwing to stay in shape. On the record, he is utterly noncommittal about his destination. "It's a waiting process to see when everything gets done but I'm pretty sure it will work out. I'm waiting to see what everybody says, take all the advice in that I can and, after that, I'm going to make a decision."

Alabama coach Jim Wells recently retired, but Hunter says that won’t impact his decision.

UPDATE: Wells changed his mind and returned to Alabama.

2. Matt West (SS/3B, high school)

Signed and batting .345/.457/.483 in eight games for Arizona.

3. Evan Reed (RHP, college junior)

Signed last week and appearing on Spokane’s roster as of today.

4. Garrett Nash (SS, high school)

Unsigned. According to the Portland (OR) Tribune, Nash will enroll at Oregon State. Nash: “I just told [Texas], ‘I’m not going to sign. I’m going to go to school.’ After talking to my dad and thinking about what’s best for my future, I decided going to Oregon State would be the best thing for me. I’ll get better coaching than I would in Rookie League ball, and it’s a great program, something I want to be a part of. I want to start my college education and develop as a player.”

5. John Gast (LHP, high school)

Unsigned. Baseball America considered Gast no worse than a third rounder until he underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Florida State coach Mike Martin, who already has lost Michael Main to Texas, expects Gast to enter college. “I would be very surprised if he signs [with Texas]. With the potential he has, he would be leaving millions of dollars on the table.” Slot money is about $135,000, compared to $250,000-$300,000 for a third rounder.

Posted by Lucas at 08:45 AM

July 02, 2007

Is Ty Wigginton an All-Star?

The Startlegram’s Gil LeBreton argued for Sammy Sosa’s inclusion in the All-Star game and lobbed a grenade at stat-oriented analysis in the process:

If the fans are voting, why not give them some names worth arguing over? Sheffield should have been on the final list, as well as the Rangers' Sammy Sosa.

That's right, Sammy Sosa.

Baseball's history of All-Star Game box scores is lined with the names of superstars who passed through in the twilight of their careers. Sosa's batting average, granted, is only .255, but he has 14 home runs and 63 runs batted in, seventh-most in major league baseball.

The geeks that are trying to measure this season's Sosa by Win Shares, VORP and Runs Created Per 27 need to get a life.

We're trying to fill an All-Star roster, not a Bill James spreadsheet.

What harm would it have done to let baseball fans decide whether Sosa or Sheffield deserved to be the AL final All-Star?

That was the gravest injustice. I'm willing to excuse the fans' choice of Ivan Rodriguez as American League catcher, when a better case easily could be made for the Yankees' Jorge Posada or the Indians' Victor Martinez. The fans understandably want to see Pudge.

Like LeBreton, I have no issue with the fans voting for favorites in decline. Ivan Rodriguez will appear this year, and players like Reggie Jackson and Cal Ripken played in the Midsummer Classic at the tail of their careers. However, players like Pudge and Ripken were voted in. LeBreton argued that Sosa should be included on the supplemental ballot so that the fans can have their say, but they already have. Sosa ranked thirteenth among outfielders in the popular vote. Thirteenth, between Coco Crisp and Craig Monroe. LeBreton appears to accept the voters’ nostalgia-infused desire for Pudge but not their rejection of Sosa.

Except for one player, managers and the players themselves chose the rest of the roster. LeBreton doesn’t address their selections, but they clearly disagree with his yearning for the “superstar in twilight.” Sosa didn’t rank among the top six outfielders in the player voting. Manager Jim Leyland, a 62-year-old graduate of the old school, chose Michael Young over Sosa. Leyland had to insure that each team was represented, but otherwise, he and the players chose purely on merit.

I don’t know why the supplemental vote includes only pitchers. It didn’t in previous years. LeBreton has a point in this regard. I wouldn’t have minded Sosa’s name on the ballot.

Alas, he throws himself under the bus with his derision of “geeks” needing a life. The AL manager, the league’s players and millions of fans have deemed Sammy Sosa unworthy of a spot on the All-Star team. Yet, for some reason, the relative handful of fans who know about Win Shares deserves his special derision. Did a cabal of stat geeks keep Sosa off the supplemental ballot? Can LeBreton speak to the pros and cons of any of the statistics mentioned, or does he feel his blanket condemnation is sufficient?

Everyone, EVERYONE, who has spent his or her free time learning about advanced baseball metrics is by definition a wildly passionate baseball fan. They attend games, purchase caps and shirts, shell out cash for cable and online video, write blogs (for free!), and even buy newspapers. What in the world did they ever do to poor Gil LeBreton?

Nevertheless, let’s take LeBreton’s criticism on its face and assume Sosa is reasonably worthy of All-Star status. (I do agree that the idea is worth exploration.) I hypothesize that if Sosa is worthy, other players with similar statistics are also worthy. Seems reasonable, yes?

So: who is most similar to Sosa using ordinary stats found at any major website? Here are the general criteria that fit Sosa’s season to date:

• Low batting average and OBP
• Pretty good slugging percentage
• Very high in RBI, low-to-average in runs
• Respectable number of doubles
• Above average in homers
• No better than an average walk rate, preferably worse
• Few steals

I derived the list mathematically, but you could probably imitate it via the eyeball method.

Player	Team	AVG / OBP / SLG	R	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SB
S. Sosa	TEX	.255/.308/.476	34	17	14	63	21	1
T. Wigginton	TAM	.273/.318/.455	36	17	13	41	21	1
E. Chavez	OAK	.246/.306/.445	35	20	12	42	28	4
J. Bay	PIT	.262/.338/.446	41	16	12	50	34	1
A. Gonzalez	CIN	.253/.301/.456	38	17	13	39	14	0
C. Delgado	NYM	.232/.296/.424	39	19	13	45	25	2
X. Nady	PIT	.278/.330/.480	36	12	13	46	15	2
R. Zimmerman	WAS	.245/.294/.420	42	18	12	42	22	3
K. Greene	SDG	.241/.274/.469	45	21	13	45	14	1
G. Atkins	COL	.247/.323/.424	37	19	11	45	34	3

Sosa actually compares favorably to guys like Jason Bay, Eric Chavez, Carlos Delgado, and Ryan Zimmerman. Unfortunately, each is having a lousy year by his previous standards. Ty Wigginton and Xavier Nady are probably the most apt comparisons to the present-day Sosa. Not bad players, but nobody’s idea of an All-Star.

What sticks out is the lower RBI totals for each of Sosa’s comparables. As you know, Sosa has thrived with runners on base, resulting in a very high number of runners plated despite a mediocre batting line. There’s no one in baseball quite like him.

And that is the essence of his All-Star case. That and nostalgia, which I debunked previously. Does Sosa deserve credit for his 63 RBI? Unquestionably. He ranks among the most fortunate in RBI opportunities and among the best at taking advantage of them. That’s a terrific combination, and it compensates greatly for his lame on-base percentage. (His ability to continue hitting in the clutch is a separate issue.)

But again, that’s the entirety of his case. He doesn’t hit for average, or walk much, or run, or play defense often or well. He doesn’t even play for a good team.

So: Ty Wigginton, anyone?

Posted by Lucas at 11:37 PM

June 15, 2007

Worse Than You Think

Although Texas can “catch” the Tigers by reducing its starters’ ERA by only 0.11, doing so would not equal them in terms of quality. Many people think of the period from the mid 1900s to the present as similar in terms of offense-heavy games, but in fact run scoring in 2007 has declined by about one-half run per team per game compared to 1996. Thus, while the ’07 Rangers and ’96 Tigers share similar rotation ERAs, Texas has performed considerably worse relative to the park-adjusted league average:

Stat	Detroit, 1996	Texas, 2007
Starters' ERA	6.64	6.75
AL Starters' ERA	5.17	4.53
Park Factor	1.01	1.05
Park-Adjusted ERA for Starters	5.22	4.76
Difference in ERA between Team and League	1.42	1.99
Pct. Diff. in ERA between Team and League	27% higher	42% higher

Texas must shave its starters’ ERA down to 6.05 to achieve equivalency to those wonderful Tigers.

Tangentially, Detroit used sixteen starters in 1996; the top five consisted of Felipe Lira, Omar Olivares, Greg Gohr, Justin Thompson, and Brian Williams. A.J. Sagar, C.J. Nitkowski, Scott Aldred and Todd Van Poppel also made between 8-9 starts each. The Tigers also featured a terrible bullpen that season, meaning that the rotation probably had a higher percentage of bequeathed runners reach home plate than Texas.

So, review those less-than-illustrious names from Detroit’s rotation, understand that the bullpen probably contributed to the rotation’s woes, and realize that Texas’s rotation is demonstrably and sickeningly worse.

Enjoy your weekend.

Posted by Lucas at 07:17 PM

June 04, 2007

125

Consecutive MLB plate appearances without an unintentional walk for Victor Diaz. He last walked on September 10, 2005.

Posted by Lucas at 12:43 AM

June 01, 2007

Platoon

With Texas down 7-5 in the 8th, two on, one out, and Seattle lefty George Sherrill in to face lefty Ramon Vasquez, manager Ron Washington opted to bring in Matt Kata, a switch hitter. Announcer Josh Lewin noted that Washington was “playing the percentages.”

Kata is a career .245/.304/.387 hitter. Not to pick on Lewin, but there is NO situation involving Matt Kata that can be deemed “playing the percentages.”

That said, it’s not so much what Kata doesn’t do well (hit, regardless of the pitcher’s arm) as what Sherrill does (kill lefties). Sherrill holds lefties to a miniscule line of .161/.212/.281 and struggles against righties, at least in terms of OBP: .282/.406/.365. Thus, Washington’s decision to leave left-handed Kenny Lofton in to face him is, ah, puzzling.

Again, Sherrill eats lefties alive, Lofton doesn’t even start against southpaws and is batting .150 against them this season (plus .214 in ’06), and Texas has two righties on the bench in the form of Nelson Cruz and Victor Diaz. Neither is hitting well against lefties, but at least they eliminate Sherrill’s gigantic platoon advantage. Cruz can play center, and even having Diaz out there for a couple of innings wouldn’t be the end of the world. Why not use one of them?

Someday, when Texas has a good team, decisions like this will really matter.

Posted by Lucas at 12:06 AM

May 21, 2007

Millwood’s Contract

Kevin Millwood did not sign a five-year, $60 million contract with Texas, though it wasn’t reported as such. He signed a four-year $48 million contract with a fifth year at $12 million that vests upon fulfillment of any of three innings-pitched scenarios:

• 540 innings during 2007-2009,
• 360 innings during 2008-2009, or
• 180 innings during 2009.

With Millwood hitting the disabled list twice in rapid succession, these scenarios have come into play. Per MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, Millwood probably won’t be ready to pitch on May 29th when Texas next needs a fifth starter. For the sake of discussion, assume he returns June 5th to kick off the homestand against Detroit and is able to pitch the equivalent of every fifth game thereafter at his ’06 rate of 6.1 innings per start.

Those assumptions give him 21 more starts and 133 innings for a season total of 168.1. Thus, he’ll need 371.2 innings in 2008-2009 to achieve the goal in the first scenario. Since the second scenario requires only 360 innings, the first scenario is effectively meaningless at this point. Millwood’s hamstring has cost him the ability to stockpile innings during 2007 to mitigate inning-sapping injuries in ’08-’09.

Texas has an option to pick up the fifth year even if Millwood doesn’t attain any of those goals. Incidentally, with Millwood’s $15 million signing bonus deferred until 2011-2015, his contract is worth about $44.8 million in present-value dollars (discounted at 8%) including the fifth year.

Posted by Lucas at 08:42 AM

May 04, 2007

.299

Texas is scoring 4.4 runs per game despite an on-base percentage of .299. No team with a .299 OBP has ever exceeded four runs per game over a full season. The 1963 Cleveland Indians hold the “record” with 3.92 R/G on a line of .239/.299/.381. Here’s the five DH-era teams who’ve finished with a sub-.300 OBP:

Year	Team	Runs / Game	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS
1992	California	3.57	.243	.298	.338	160	101
1990	New York	3.72	.241	.296	.366	119	45
1981	Toronto	3.10	.226	.284	.330	66	57
1981	Minnesota	3.44	.240	.293	.338	34	27
1975	Detroit	3.58	.249	.299	.366	63	57

As you might expect, most of these teams ran into a bunch of extra outs.

Texas has been very fortunate to score as many runs as they have. The obverse of the Rangers is the Royals, who are batting .297/.371/.470 to lead off an inning but only .242/.321/.371 in RISP situations. They’re scoring 3.9 runs per game, significantly worse than Texas.

The Rangers have zero probability of maintaining a sub-.300 OBP for the whole season. It’s just not going to happen. However, with a more even distribution of hits, it’s possible for their dull 4.4 run average to persist even as their OBP increases. If that happens, Texas will lose 90 games even if its pitching reverts to 2006 form.

Posted by Lucas at 01:00 PM

May 03, 2007

Ron Is Right

Much of what I write involves the following process:

1. Read someone’s adamantly stated opinion.
2. Wonder: “Is that true?”
3. Discover: “Nope!”
4. Commence dissent.

So I’m pleased to report that Ron Washington is exactly right. Quotations from Chairman Ron at the Startlegram blog:

Patience is that you have to have enough knowledge of what you’re doing that if you’re going to swing at the first pitch, you can’t be topping it, you can’t be rolling it, you can't be popping it up. You’ve got to turn somebody over. You don't ground a first pitch to the third baseman. You don’t pop a first pitch to the second baseman. You don't chop a first pitch back to the pitcher. If you’re going to swing at a first pitch, you’ve got to center it. If you’re going to make an out, you’ve got to make a loud out. "If you go back and review, we’re making outs on first pitches. If your swing is not there to center the ball, then I don't think you should be swinging at that first pitch.

Texas is putting the ball in play on the first pitch in 10.5% of its plate appearances, exactly the same percentage as the American league. However, the Rangers are batting only .280/.287/.480 in first-pitch results.

“Only?” Isn’t a team-wide .280 average and .480 slugging percentage good?

Not on first pitches. The AL has a line of .323/.331/.527. Last year, Texas batted .349 and slugged .565 on first pitches. Hitters don’t often have full discretion to swing only at “perfect” strikes while letting marginal ones pass by. The first pitch is one such situation, so batting lines are highly inflated on first-pitch results.

Hitting .280 on first pitches is pretty lame.

Posted by Lucas at 02:38 PM

May 01, 2007

Brandon McCarthy, Part 2: How Much Of The “Suck” Is Bad Luck?

The pitch data presented in the previous entry doesn’t tell much of the story behind McCarthy’s dreadfulness this season. This table does:

Year	HR%	BB%	SO%	BABIP	ERA	LERA
2005-2006	4.8%	7%	19%	0.259	4.41	4.72
2007	2.9%	10%	12%	0.382	9.90	6.69

Despite pretty similar ball-strike distributions, McCarthy has walked more and struck out far fewer batters than during 2005-2006. The real killer is the gigantic increase in average on balls in play. He was a bit lucky in Chicago (where typical BABIP is about .290) and has been hugely unlucky in Texas, where a BABIP of about .305-.310 is the norm. If not for some improvement in home runs allowed, his ERA might be near 12.00.

So, the question is, how much of his meltdown is due to him alone, and how much is simply bad luck? It’s impossible to say for sure, but the last column of the table provides a little bit of an answer. LERA stands for Latent ERA, a stat I’ve used in the past but didn’t name until now. (If there’s anything baseball needs, it’s another obscure statistical acronym.) It’s a combination of Bill James’s Component ERA (except adding actual data for doubles and triples allowed instead of estimates) and DIPS (except adjusting to the BABIP typical for the team, not the league). Basically, I’m trying to estimate what the pitcher’s ERA might be assuming a typical distribution of baserunners and a typical BABIP for his team.

McCarthy appeared to be a bit lucky in Chicago, as evidenced by the slight increase in his LERA compared to his actual ERA. In Texas, his ERA “ought” to be 6.69 rather than 9.90. Depending on how the numbers are examined, perhaps 60-65%% of the increase in ERA is bad luck, and 35%-40% is purely his own fault.

This is ultimately an exercise in numerical tomfoolery, and goodness knows I’m not suggesting that McCarthy’s pitching is acceptable. However, if his ERA were actually 6.69 instead of 9.90, people might only be saying “he needs to get his butt in gear” instead of “he needs to be euthanized.”

Posted by Lucas at 06:43 PM

Brandon McCarthy, Part 1: Pitch Data Isn't Everything

Funny, but from looking purely at pitch data, you’d never guess that Brandon McCarthy’s ERA had skyrocketed from 4.41 in 2005-2006 to 9.90 this season.

Pitches	05-'06	'07
Strikes	64%	63%
-- Strikes looking	26%	28%
-- Strikes swinging	14%	10%
-- Strikes fouled	32%	31%
-- Strikes hit into play	28%	32%
1st-pitch strikes	56%	63%
3-0 counts	6%	5%
0-2 counts	18%	16%

Based on the number of pitches he’s thrown, the 4% increase in strikes hit into play equals 10 extra balls in play. That’s not an insignificant amount over the course of 20 innings, but certainly not enough to account for a doubling in ERA.

Posted by Lucas at 06:18 PM

April 27, 2007

Scoring From Third

The DMN’s Evan Grant wrote at length about the Rangers’ ghastly performance with runners on third in Thursday’s 9-4 loss to Cleveland. He noted their inefficiency at getting runners home from third with less than two outs and Texas’s attempts to wean themselves off the homer heavy “all or nothing” approach. Per manager Ron Washington, "These guys have been so used to banging that it's hard for them to take that shorter stroke. It's not going to be easy to get it out of their system. But we will."

I watched that game, and, this being a family blog and all, I can’t tell you what I was yelling at the tv. What I can tell you is that hitting with runners on third is not the biggest problem afflicting the Rangers.

I don’t have the stats with less than two outs, but I’ve compared the Rangers to the American League in all man-on-third situations to see how effective they are at bringing runners home. The second and third columns in the table below are Others Batted In per Plate Apperance. Thus, if the hitter homers, his run doesn’t count. I’ve also deducted intentional walks from the plate appearances for the purpose of this exercise. Multiplying the difference in Texas’s and the AL’s OBI/PA by Texas’s number of appearances in each situation results in the Rangers’ run deficit or surplus relative to the league as a whole.

Base Situation (1/2/3)	Texas OBI/PA	AL OBI/PA	Difference	Texas PAs	Texas Run Deficit
- - 3	26%	30%	-4%	27	(1.2)
1 - 3	58%	49%	9%	31	2.9
- 2 3	27%	50%	-23%	11	(2.5)
1 2 3	68%	74%	-6%	22	(1.3)

TOTAL RUN DEFICIT: -2.1

Texas’s inability to hit with runners on third has cost the team about 0.1 runs per game. I’m not suggesting that 0.1 runs is nothing. Over the course of a season, that extra 0.1 is worth almost two wins. However, Texas’s hitting in these situations is not close to being a catastrophe.

Posted by Lucas at 08:31 PM

April 23, 2007

Notes On Laird

Finally the unquestioned #1 catcher in his fifth season, Gerald Laird has posted a hideous line of .104/.185/.146 in 15 games. After all this time, Laird still has only 574 MLB plate appearances, so trendspotting is a risky endeavor, but what the heck:

1. Does Laird have a career history of poor performance as the regular catcher?

To test this theory, I compared games in which he started on the previous day (that’s day, not just the previous game) to those in which he had at least one day of rest. I eliminated games in which he appeared as a late-inning sub or pinch hitter.

I expected to see a letdown as an everyday player, but it doesn’t exist:

Laird after playing the previous day:
.253/.314/.333 in 194 plate appearances

Laird after at least one day of rest:
.241/.287/.391 in 371 appearances

Laird has hit for more power with rest but also for a slightly lower average and with a higher strikeout rate (23% vs 17%).

2. Is Laird seeing/swinging at pitches differently this season?

Yes. Laird’s awful start has coincided with increased patience. From 2003-2006, he averaged 3.7 pitches per appearance. In 2007, he’s improved to 4.2.

Through 2006, 28% of the strikes delivered to Laird were of the looking variety. In 2007, it’s increased to 34%. That extra 6% equates to 14 additional watched strikes this season in 54 appearances.

Laird swung at 32% of first pitches during his first four seasons. That number has decreased to 20% in 2007.

The operative word is “coincided.” I’m not about to suggest Laird’s scuffling is a function of increased patience. That said, the trend is worth watching. And again, Laird doesn’t have a lengthy history, so don’t take this analysis as holy writ.

3. Does Laird have more serious problems than how often he rests or whether he swings at the first pitch?

He sure does. One: Laird already had a poor track record against righties (.224/.282/.345 through ‘06) and has done nothing to improve it. Two: Laird had always pounded lefties (.355/.384/.520) but is 0-11 against them this season.

Posted by Lucas at 06:09 PM

April 18, 2007

Wilkerson, Again

After both recent posts in which I spoke ill of Brad Wilkerson, he immediately followed with a terrific game.

Therefore, tomorrow I will launch a 149-part series entitled, "Brad Wilkerson, Dog Kicker."

Posted by Lucas at 01:31 AM

April 16, 2007

More On Wilkerson

As I mentioned last week, Brad Wilkerson’s problem in 2006 wasn’t staring at strike three, it was inability to make contact throughout the count. Pitch data available from BaseballReference.com confirms this:

Year	2001-2005	2006
Plate Appearances	2,690	365
Pitches / Appearances	4.28	4.19
Strikes as % of pitches	59%	62%
-- % Looking	34%	29%
-- % Swinging and missed	16%	23%
-- % Swinging and fouled	26%	26%
-- % Swinging and hit into play	24%	22%
% of strikes swung at	66%	71%
% of all pitches swung at	39%	44%
% of pitches made contact with when swinging	75%	67%
% of appearances swinging at first pitch	16%	19%

From 2001-2005, 59% of the pitches thrown to Wilkerson were strikes, and he swung and missed 16% of those strikes. In 2006, the strike percentage increased to 62%, and the percentage of those he whiffed rocketed to 23%. Wilkerson saw 1,529 pitches in his abbreviated 2006 season, meaning that he swung and missed an additional 97 pitches compared to previous years. He only played in 95 games, so that’s an extra missed pitch every game.

In 2006, Wilkerson also swung at all pitches more frequently (44% vs. 39% during 2001-2005) but made contact less often (67% vs. 75%). As noted in last week’s post, Wilkerson put the first pitch into play less often than any of 37 batters I surveyed. Yet he actually swung at the first pitch 3% more frequently than during 2001-2005.

Is there hope? Actually, yes. Wilkerson’s line of .222/.313/.370 isn’t much different than what he offered in 2006, but his strike/contact statistics have generally reverted to earlier years:

Year	2001-2005	2007
Plate Appearances	2,690	32
Pitches / Appearances	4.28	4.50
Strikes as % of pitches	59%	57%
-- % Looking	34%	35%
-- % Swinging and missed	16%	17%
-- % Swinging and fouled	26%	24%
-- % Swinging and hit into play	24%	23%
% of strikes swung at	66%	65%
% of all pitches swung at	39%	37%
% of pitches made contact with when swinging	75%	74%
% of appearances swinging at first pitch	16%	19%

Posted by Lucas at 06:57 PM

April 10, 2007

Is Wilkerson Toast?

Brad Wilkerson’s game-ending at-bat against Jon Papelbon Sunday night was about as sad a display as you’ll ever see. Certainly, Papelbon has a habit of making hitters look stupid, but Wilkerson wouldn’t have made contact even if he’d been allowed ten strikes. Honestly, he looks like a pitcher sometimes.

It’s nothing new. Wilkerson struggled with a sore shoulder immediately upon joining the Rangers, and his tenure as leadoff hitter ended after just eight games. The salt in the wound was Alfonso Soriano’s rejuvenation as a Senator after two lackluster years in Texas. It doesn’t help that Soriano looks like an athlete and Wilkerson looks… well, doughy. Not that Wilkerson isn’t athletic. I’m just sayin’.

Presumably, in 2007 Wilkerson’s renewed health would pay dividends. Alas, the early returns are not promising. Wilkerson is known for taking the count deep, resulting in plenty of walks and strikeouts. Before joining Texas, his strikeouts weren’t a serious problem. Despite ranking among the top five in strikeouts in the NL from 2002-2005, Wilkerson consistently reached based at about a .370 rate and supplied plenty of doubles and a decent number of home runs. As a Ranger, his OBP hovers around .300 and he strikes out more than ever.

Using 2006 stats, I reviewed his and others’ performances in four categories:

1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch.

2. Percentage of PAs with a two-strike count.

3. Percentage of PAs with an 0-2 count.

4. Percentage of PAs in which the batter struck out without ever taking ball one.

The first two stats don’t indicate much on their own. Although hitters tend to do very well when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, a high percentage by itself does not indicate does not indicate a good hitter. Recognizing and taking advantage of a fat first pitch is the hallmark of a great hitter, but swinging at too many first pitches indicates lack of discretion. Likewise, having a high number of two-strike counts isn’t bad in and of itself.

Conversely, too many 0-2 counts are cause for concern. Hitters are at a huge disadvantage on an 0-2 count. Even very patient hitters who walk often tend to avoid them. Finally, striking out without ever seeing a ball outside the zone is an obvious failure.

For purposes of comparing hitters to Wilkerson, I couldn’t find a database of breakdowns of batter performance by ball-strike count, so I built an abbreviated one using four cohorts:

BB Kings (clever, no?): Ten batting-title qualifiers with the best walk rates in 2006. Wilkerson has walked over 13% of his career plate appearances, an excellent rate.

The group includes David Ortiz, Jason Giambi, Travis Hafner, Manny Ramirez, Nick Johnson, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell.

K Kings: Ten batters with the highest strikeouts ratios in 2006. Wilkerson would have joined this group had he achieved enough appearances.

This group consists of Thome, Dunn and Burrell (also BB Kings), Curtis Granderson, Richie Sexson, Jhonny Peralta, Bill Hall, Ryan Howard, Andy LaRoche, and Geoff Jenkins.

Hackers: Ten batters with the worst walk-to-strikeout ratios in 2006. Wilkerson is definitely not a hacker, at least as I’ve defined the term here. I’m attempting to pick a group of hitters ostensibly inferior to Wilkerson to see how he measures up.

The Hackers are Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Francoeur, Preston Wilson, Shea Hillenbrand, Craig Monroe, Pedro Feliz, Jacque Jones, Ivan Rodriguez, AJ Pierzynski, and Clint Barmes. (Three Tigers in this group.)

Rangers: The top eight Rangers in plate appearances in 2006. All the other group consist of outliers; the Rangers should represent a broader mix of talents.

The Rangers are Barajas. Teixeira, Kinsler, Young, Blalock, DeRosa, Matthews and Mench.

With overlap, the comparison groups consist of 35 players. For each stat, I’ll list Wilkerson, the players with the highest and lowest percentages, and the averages of each cohort. Again, these are 2006 statistics.

1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch

Category	1st-pitch action
J Francoeur	21%
Average of Hackers	15%
Average of Rangers	12%
Average of K Kings	10%
Average of BB Kings	9%
B Abreu	5.2%
B Wilkerson	4.9%

2. Percentage of plate appearances with two strikes

Player	2-Strike Counts
P Feliz	39%
Average of Hackers	44%
Average of Rangers	45%
Average of BB Kings	51%
Average of K Kings	53%
B Hall	58%
B Wilkerson	59%

3. Percentage of plate appearances with an 0-2 count

Category	0-2 Counts
P Feliz	7%
Average of BB Kings	15%
Average of Rangers	17%
Average of Hackers	17%
Average of K Kings	18%
B Hall	21%
Wilkerson	25%

4. Percentage of plate appearances in which the batter struck out and never took a pitch for a ball.

Category	Ball-free strikeouts
B Abreu	1.5%
Average of BB Kings	2.5%
Average of Rangers	3.1%
Average of K Kings	4.1%
Average of Hackers	4.2%
R Cedeno	6.5%
B Wilkerson	6.6%

Wilkerson ranks last in every category. Compared to 35 other hitters, he was least likely to hit the first pitch into play, most likely to have a two-strike count, most likely to have an 0-2 count, and most likely to strike out without seeing ball one. As I mentioned previously, ranking last in the first two categories isn't problematic by itself. Bobby Abreu almost never puts the ball in play on the first pitch, and he's a stud.

No, the problem is the combination of all four stats. Wilkerson starts in a hole far too often without recovering. That’s not a result of too much patience. It’s inability to make contact. No hitter can survive without making good contact a reasonable percentage of the time, and Wilkerson has failed in that regard. That Wilkerson lapped the field in 0-2 counts is worst of all, because a batter with an 0-2 count is a dead man walking.

But that’s 2006, right? Old news. What about this year and Wilkerson’s healthy shoulder?

As I said, the early returns are not promising:

Brad Wilkerson	2006	2007
First-pitch action (% of PAs)	4.9%	5.0%
2-Strike Counts	59%	65%
0-2 Counts	25%	30%
Ball-free strikeouts	6.6%	15.0%

Wilkerson has declined in every category. I know it’s early, but he looks lost. I’ve previously predicted that the Rangers would (belatedly) replace Sammy Sosa’s attenuated bat by mid-May or June. At this rate, Wilkerson might not outlast Sosa.

Posted by Lucas at 05:43 PM

April 02, 2007

Predictions

AL West:
Los Angeles 87-75
Oakland 84-78
Texas 81-81
Seattle 77-85

That said, I see much more upside than downside. This team can win the division.

AL Central: Cleveland. While I was in Vegas last month, I put $20 on Texas (the university) to cover the spread against Kansas. They did, so I put $20 on Cleveland at 12-1 to win the pennant. Go Tribe!

AL East: New York.

AL Wild Card: Boston

NL West: San Diego

NL Central: Umm… I guess someone has to win. Chicago. Maybe St. Louis.

NL E