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October 24, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #1 Hitters
Time to begin the Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters In Terms Of Lineup And Defensive Positions. As with last year, I’ll start with the #1 hitters.
First, a brief refresher on the stats. You know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.
For Texas’s #1 hitters, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other #1 hitters. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .284/.350/.422. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .351 and a slugging percentage of .431 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages.
Texas #1 Hitters:
| Player | % of Team PA |
OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
Net SB |
| G Matthews | 89% |
.868 |
121 |
.372 |
106 |
.496 |
115 |
102 |
19 |
79 |
58 |
98 |
-4 |
| B Wilkerson | 5% |
.565 |
41 |
.190 |
54 |
.375 |
87 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
16 |
1 |
| 8 others | 6% |
.829 |
110 |
.341 |
97 |
.488 |
113 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
| TEAM | - |
.849 |
116 |
.361 |
103 |
.489 |
114 |
115 |
23 |
90 |
62 |
121 |
-3 |
| AL Average | - |
.782 |
- |
.351 |
- |
.431 |
- |
109 |
15 |
70 |
65 |
113 |
9 |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
4 |
- |
5 |
- |
3 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
With free agency looming, Gary Matthews guaranteed over $20 million in future dollars on top of the $2.8 million paid to him by Texas this season. That’s a nice six months. Matthews hit .313 with ample patience and plenty of power batting first for Texas.
To what extent Texas tries to keep him is one of the toughest offseason decisions I can recall. As a center fielder and leadoff hitter, Matthews provided solutions for two problems that have plagued the franchise since I walked to Butler Elementary in Garanimals. Texas has a chance to extend that solution for another three years or so. How nice would that be?
Alas, the downside:
- Matthews is 32 and more likely to decline than to improve or stand ground.
- Most of his amazing 2006 rests on an upsurge in batting average. Matthews hit .313 in ‘06 but only .250 in his previous 2,980 at-bats and never above .275 in any one season. Whereas power and patience are relatively stable from year to year, batting average is quite fickle. His three-year aggregate in Texas -- .285/.349/.468 – seems a more reasonable basis for the future than his ’06 performance.
- How good is his defense, really? Despite his stellar reputation built on several astonishing catches, Win Shares places him only in the middle of the pack among center fielders, and Baseball Prospectus takes an even dimmer view. I’m of the belief that he’s no worse than average defensively, but that’s just a belief. Maybe the highlight-reel catches are masking overall mediocrity. Still, among the potential problems with signing him to a long-term deal, defense ranks as the least worrisome.
Despite those caveats, it’s not unreasonable to expect Matthews to provide average leadoff-hitting and center-field defense during the next three years. Does that equal $8 million per season? When analyzed in a vacuum, no. Considering the thin free-agent market and Texas’s in-house alternatives… maybe yes. The amount of money Matthews eventually receives will almost certainly exceed his worth, but perhaps by a margin small enough as to be shrug-worthy.
Incidentally, in terms of WARP, Gary Matthews did not have the best season by a center fielder in Ranger history. That honor goes to Juan Gonzalez in 1992.
Brad Wilkerson began 2006 as leadoff hitter. His nightmarish tenure contained some of the most inept at-bats I’ve ever seen outside of my softball league. I believe that in 41 plate appearances he struck out 79 times. Wilkerson did right himself once deposited in the #6 or #7 slots until a lingering shoulder problem prematurely ended his season. He may yet find himself atop the Ranger order in 2007 pending full health and agreeable contract negotiations.
American League #1 Hitters:
| TEAM | OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| Cleveland | .916 |
140 |
.378 |
109 |
.538 |
130 |
137 |
29 |
78 |
| NY Yankees | .848 |
119 |
.365 |
105 |
.483 |
114 |
132 |
25 |
91 |
| Toronto | .852 |
117 |
.374 |
107 |
.478 |
110 |
118 |
21 |
87 |
| Texas | .849 |
116 |
.361 |
103 |
.489 |
114 |
115 |
23 |
90 |
| Tampa Bay | .816 |
110 |
.341 |
98 |
.475 |
112 |
114 |
25 |
69 |
| Seattle | .782 |
108 |
.369 |
107 |
.413 |
101 |
112 |
9 |
49 |
| Detroit | .765 |
100 |
.336 |
96 |
.429 |
104 |
99 |
20 |
73 |
| Kansas City | .775 |
97 |
.351 |
98 |
.423 |
99 |
106 |
11 |
69 |
| Boston | .742 |
93 |
.348 |
99 |
.394 |
93 |
108 |
16 |
71 |
| Baltimore | .722 |
88 |
.335 |
96 |
.387 |
92 |
95 |
11 |
66 |
| Minnesota | .694 |
84 |
.336 |
98 |
.358 |
86 |
94 |
8 |
55 |
| Oakland | .685 |
81 |
.346 |
100 |
.339 |
81 |
99 |
3 |
54 |
| Chicago Sox | .699 |
79 |
.332 |
94 |
.368 |
85 |
100 |
4 |
58 |
| LA Angels | .661 |
74 |
.322 |
92 |
.338 |
82 |
98 |
5 |
67 |
Best #1 hitting: Cleveland by far and almost exclusively in the form of Grady Sizemore.
Worst: Los Angeles (Chone Figgins) and Chicago (mostly Scott Podsednik).
Posted by Lucas at October 24, 2006 12:05 PM