May 16, 2008
2 1/4" Hail
Diamter of golf ball: 1.68"
Diamter of tennis ball: about 2.50"
Moose does not approve.
Posted by Lucas at 12:21 AM
May 14, 2008
Win Win
Posted by Lucas at 01:52 AM
May 06, 2008
Random Weekday Photo
Inside the Wynn, Las Vegas, NV, 2 March 2008
Posted by Lucas at 08:18 PM
May 04, 2008
Not Dead Yet
I thought I’d driven a stake through the heart of the “team record with player in lineup” thesis (see here and here) , but no such luck:
[Ramon] Vazquez is common thread as Texas Rangers win 4th straight:
[Vazquez] is a .251 career hitter. He has below-average power. When the Rangers found him last year, he hadn't played in more than 52 major league games in three seasons. He was supposed to be the extra infielder on a team where the infielders played every day.
Be that as it may, facts can't dispute this: When Ramon Vazquez is in the Rangers' lineup, they are a winning team… Since he joined the Rangers last May when Hank Blalock needed surgery to improve blood flow to his right arm last season, the club is 63-54 when Vazquez plays; 52-44 when he starts.
Indisputable. And meaningless. To reiterate:
For a statistic to have meaning and value, it must have uniform applicability. For example, one can calculate batting averages for all hitters, compare them, and learn something meaningful about the players. Thus, for the difference in the team’s record with and without [Vazquez] to have meaning, the difference must also apply logically to other players.
Since the beginning of 2007, Texas has a record of 52-44 (.541) when Vazquez starts and 36-61 (.371) when he doesn’t. That’s a huge difference, obviously. Notably, Vazquez has replaced oft-injured Hank Blalock in most of his starts. Here’s where you end up when you apply the “team-record theory of value” to Blalock:
Blalock is common thread as Texas loses 7th straight:If you believe the 63-54 team record with Vazquez is meaningful, you also must believe that the 31-49 with Blalock is meaningful (assuming you’re a fan of logical consistency).
Blalock seems to have recovered from the off-years of 2005-2006. He batted .293 with ten homers in 58 games last year, and .299 with three homers in 22 games this year before pulling up lame.
Be that as it may, facts can’t dispute this: When Hank Blalock is in the Rangers’ lineup, they are a losing team… Since the beginning of 2007, the club is 31-49 when Blalock plays, 30-48 when he starts.
The team record with versus without Vazquez is nothing but luck. During the last two years, the Rangers have allowed 4.86 runs per game in Vazquez’s starts and 5.78 in his off days. Vazquez wasn’t around when Texas began 2007 with a 15-26 record. This year, Blalock, not Vazquez, took the field in each of three starts by Luis Mendoza (9.31 ERA). In Jason Jennings’s six starts (8.56 ERA), Vazquez has appeared twice, Blalock four times. Vazquez didn’t play during the seven-game meltdown at Boston and Detroit.
Michael Young says that Vazquez " is one of the smartest guys I've ever played with. He does all the little things well. He knows how to handle every situation." Even stipulating that Vazquez might be more valuable than his hitting and fielding stats indicate, he’s not the difference between a .541 team and a .371 team (about 28 games per season).
If a player hangs around long enough, the team record in his games will converge with the team record in all games. Some players are worth more than others, of course, but even the difference between an MVP-level player and a backup infielder is only 10-12 games per year. The variance in “Team Record with Player X” is so high that comparisons among players are meaningless. Accepting such comparisons can lead to bizarre conclusions; for example, Ramon Vazquez is more valuable than Hank Blalock.
Incidentally, Jason Botts is (was) a career .230/.325/.344 hitter with Texas, but the Rangers had a 44-33 record when he started. Look at those intangibles! I can’t believe Texas let him go.
Posted by Lucas at 03:15 PM
April 30, 2008
Botts DFA'ed, Shelton and Boggs Up, Blalock DL'ed
Texas designated 1B/OF/DH JASON BOTTS for assignment, purchased the contract of 1B CHRIS SHELTON, placed 3B HANK BLALOCK on the 15-day DL, and recalled OF BRANDON BOGGS from AAA Oklahoma.
In terms of wins and losses in 2008 , it makes little difference whether Ben Broussard, Jason Botts, or Chris Shelton starts at first. Broussard was certain to be subadequate , Shelton had a stellar April 2005 and modest success at other times, and Jason Botts had yet to capitalize on the potential shown in his tremendous AAA performances. None is/was likely to be an above-average 1B in 2008. All that said, some semblance of a plan regarding these guys might have helped. This chain of events sure seems haphazard:
Nov 18, 2007 – Texas inquires about Broussard, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
Dec 5 – Shelton acquired for Freddy Guzman.
Dec 13 – Broussard acquired for Tug Hulett. Broussard is arbitration-eligible.
Jan 5, 2008 – Broussard gets $3.85 million in a pre-arb agreement.
Jan 14 – Shelton DFA’ed to make room for Kaz Fukumori. He clears and is assigned to AAA.
Mar 4 – Ron Washington declares Broussard an everyday player. Enthusiasm is not a plan!
Mar 25 – Botts makes the active roster without unanimity and despite no apparent role. I suggest he’ll be encased in carbonite at the end of the bench.
Mar 31 – Broussard starts against lefty Eric Bedard on Opening Day, batting 9th. No Rangers 1B had ever batted 9th on the first day of the season. Through April 29th, Broussard has batted 9th in 16 of his 21 starts.
Apr 10 – Botts makes his first start in the team’s ninth game. He has one plate appearance in the first eight games.
Apr 19 – Botts makes his third start. Texas has faced four lefties; Broussard faced the first two and Botts the next two. On the 21st, Ron Washington acknowledges that Botts will play more often after a meeting with Jon Daniels.
Apr 29 – Botts is designated for assignment after nine starts and 38 plate appearances. Shelton added to 40-man roster, active roster, and starting lineup.
Also: good for Boggs.
Posted by Lucas at 12:19 AM
April 25, 2008
Two Minus Three Equals Negative Fun!
Texas pitchers have issued the most walks (114) and fewest strikeouts (109) in the American League. Thus, they’re headed for the dubious distinction of completing a season with more walks than strikeouts. That won’t happen, but it’s fun to think about (in a self-destructive way).
The Rangers are on pace for 767 strikeouts and 803 walks, a difference of -36. Until the mid-1950s, negative differences weren’t uncommon. No pitching staff has tallied fewer strikeouts than walks since the 1956 Philadelphia Athletics (-67).
In the last fifteen years, Milwaukee has the worst difference, +95, in the 144-game 1995 season. The worst full season belongs to the epically bad ’96 Tigers staff, which had 784 walks and 957 strikeouts, a difference of +173. Detroit allowed 6.8 runs per game, 1,015 for the season.
Regarding the 803 walk pace: It would be the third most in MLB history behind the notorious 1915 Athletics and the 1949 Yankees. The worst total in the last fifteen years (784) belongs to the aforementioned ’96 Tigers.
Regarding the 767 strikeout pace: The only team with fewer strikeouts in the last fifteen years is the 2003 Tigers with 764. They won 43 games.
And there’s more! Texas is also on pace to allow 1,690 hits. That’s well below the record of 1,993 by the 1930 Phillies, during an era when teams routinely hit .290. But, excluding Colorado, it would be the third-most since 1940, after the ’97 Athletics (1,734) and ’96 Tigers (1,699). Considering the offensive context, allowing 1,690 hits in 2008 might be worse. Incidentally, the 3rd and 4th worst post-1940 hit totals belong to the ’00 and ’01 Rangers.
Posted by Lucas at 06:11 PM
April 21, 2008
The Rundown Museum Proudly Displays...
Francisco Goya, Boston Devouring The Rangers, oil mural transferred to canvas, circa 1823.
Posted by Lucas at 02:50 PM
April 19, 2008
More Strike Calls
Regarding the irritation of Manny Ramirez and Milton Bradley at Jerry Meals's strike zone on Friday, Bradley at least has an argument. Here's the called strike in question:
The outer box is 2.9 inches (the width of the ball) around the rule-book strike zone. It gives the full benefit of the doubt to the umpire.
As for Manny...
...no telling what what going through his head.
Posted by Lucas at 02:16 PM
April 18, 2008
Close, But No Cigar
Benoit's final pitch to Marco Scutaro on Wednesday was Ball Four. Barely.
Posted by Lucas at 05:45 PM
