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April 15, 2006
Brad Wilkerson's Bogus Journey
If you haven’t seen Brad Wilkerson swing a bat this season, you’ve missed quite a spectacle. At times, he looks no better than a random guy pulled out of the stands. He has one walk and 19 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances, and on many of those third strikes he definitely is not swinging for the fences. Rather, he is desperately attempting to make contact, literally flailing at the ball.
The good folks on the television have suggested that Wilkerson is seeing an abnormally high proportion of 0-2 counts. Is this true? In fact, it is painfully true. The following table compares 2002-2005 to 2006 in terms of how often Wilkerson faces a particular count as a percentage of his total plate appearances:
| Count or Event | '02-'05 |
'06 |
| 2-0 | 18% | 10% |
| 1-1 | 45% | 51% |
| 0-2 | 18% | 31% |
| In play after 2 pitches | 18% | 10% |
Relative to his previous four years, this season Wilkerson has faced six more 0-2 counts and four fewer 2-0 counts than normal. For him, like for most hitters, the difference between a 2-0 and an 0-2 count is the entire world:
| '02-'05 | AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
BB% |
SO% |
| After 2-0 Count | 0.336 | 0.599 | 0.646 | 40% | 13% |
| After 0-2 Count | 0.183 | 0.216 | 0.305 | 3% | 50% |
Or, the difference was the entire world. Unfortunately, so far in 2006 Wilkerson has failed to capitalize on his less frequent positive counts:
| Excluding "After 0-2" Counts | AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
BB% |
SO% |
| '06 | 0.182 | 0.206 | 0.212 | 3% | 35% |
| '02-'05 | 0.279 | 0.405 | 0.499 | 17% | 19% |
Despite his miserable debut as a Ranger, I expect Wilkerson to hit well and for this episode to be largely forgotten by season’s end. For now, Wilkerson personifies the Rangers' 4-7 start.
Posted by Lucas at April 15, 2006 02:51 AM