« Updated Series Odds | Main | Ron and Josh »

October 16, 2010

ALCS Probabilities (Partially Belated)

Log5 Predictor)
TEX home win % = .614
NYY road win % = .542
TEX 57% favorite to win at home
NYY home win % = .646
TEX road win % = .500
NYY 65% to win at home

These were the probabilities going into the series.

Result
Probability
TEX sweeps
4%
total:
45%
TEX wins 4-1
8%
TEX wins 4-2
16%
TEX wins 4-3
18%
NYY wins 4-3
14%

total:
55%

NYYwins 4-2
15%
NYY wins 4-1
19%
NYY sweeps
8%

The betting outlets I visited had Texas at 43% and New York at 61% (the cumulative probability exceeds 100% because of the juice), making Texas a better pick, if not a terrific one.

Now that New York has taken Game 1:

Result
Probability
TEX sweeps
0%
total:
27%
TEX wins 4-1
3%
TEX wins 4-2
9%
TEX wins 4-3
16%
NYY wins 4-3
12%

total:
73%

NYYwins 4-2
15%
NYY wins 4-1
18%
NYY sweeps
18%

Had the Rangers won on Friday, they'd be 59% to win the series. The first game makes a huge difference.

Posted by Lucas at October 16, 2010 01:22 PM