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## October 16, 2010

### ALCS Probabilities (Partially Belated)

**Log5 Predictor)**

TEX home win % = .614

NYY road win % = .542

TEX 57% favorite to win at home

NYY home win % = .646

TEX road win % = .500

NYY 65% to win at home

These were the probabilities going into the series.

Result | Probability | |

TEX sweeps | 4% | total: 45% |

TEX wins 4-1 | 8% | |

TEX wins 4-2 | 16% | |

TEX wins 4-3 | 18% | |

NYY wins 4-3 | 14% | total: |

NYYwins 4-2 | 15% | |

NYY wins 4-1 | 19% | |

NYY sweeps | 8% |

The betting outlets I visited had Texas at 43% and New York at 61% (the cumulative probability exceeds 100% because of the juice), making Texas a better pick, if not a terrific one.

Now that New York has taken Game 1:

Result | Probability | |

TEX sweeps | 0% | total: 27% |

TEX wins 4-1 | 3% | |

TEX wins 4-2 | 9% | |

TEX wins 4-3 | 16% | |

NYY wins 4-3 | 12% | total: |

NYYwins 4-2 | 15% | |

NYY wins 4-1 | 18% | |

NYY sweeps | 18% |

Had the Rangers won on Friday, they'd be 59% to win the series. The first game makes a huge difference.

Posted by Lucas at October 16, 2010 01:22 PM