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October 16, 2010
ALCS Probabilities (Partially Belated)
Log5 Predictor)
TEX home win % = .614
NYY road win % = .542
TEX 57% favorite to win at home
NYY home win % = .646
TEX road win % = .500
NYY 65% to win at home
These were the probabilities going into the series.
| Result | Probability | |
| TEX sweeps | 4% | total: 45% |
| TEX wins 4-1 | 8% | |
| TEX wins 4-2 | 16% | |
| TEX wins 4-3 | 18% | |
| NYY wins 4-3 | 14% | total: |
| NYYwins 4-2 | 15% | |
| NYY wins 4-1 | 19% | |
| NYY sweeps | 8% | |
The betting outlets I visited had Texas at 43% and New York at 61% (the cumulative probability exceeds 100% because of the juice), making Texas a better pick, if not a terrific one.
Now that New York has taken Game 1:
| Result | Probability | |
| TEX sweeps | 0% | total: 27% |
| TEX wins 4-1 | 3% | |
| TEX wins 4-2 | 9% | |
| TEX wins 4-3 | 16% | |
| NYY wins 4-3 | 12% | total: |
| NYYwins 4-2 | 15% | |
| NYY wins 4-1 | 18% | |
| NYY sweeps | 18% | |
Had the Rangers won on Friday, they'd be 59% to win the series. The first game makes a huge difference.
Posted by Lucas at October 16, 2010 01:22 PM