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May 01, 2007

Brandon McCarthy, Part 1: Pitch Data Isn't Everything

Funny, but from looking purely at pitch data, you’d never guess that Brandon McCarthy’s ERA had skyrocketed from 4.41 in 2005-2006 to 9.90 this season.

Pitches
05-'06
'07
Strikes 64% 63%
-- Strikes looking 26% 28%
-- Strikes swinging 14% 10%
-- Strikes fouled 32% 31%
-- Strikes hit into play 28% 32%
1st-pitch strikes 56% 63%
3-0 counts 6% 5%
0-2 counts 18% 16%

Based on the number of pitches he’s thrown, the 4% increase in strikes hit into play equals 10 extra balls in play. That’s not an insignificant amount over the course of 20 innings, but certainly not enough to account for a doubling in ERA.

Posted by Lucas at May 1, 2007 06:18 PM