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May 01, 2005
April Statistical Review
Texas posted a 12-13 record in April and the statistics validate their record. Texas has pitched better than their 5.10 ERA would suggest, but on the whole they’ve played like a .500 ball club or thereabouts.
| Actual Standings |
12.0 - 13.0 (.480)
|
| "Pythagorean" Standings |
11.2 - 13.8 (.450)
|
| Standings based on offensive and defensive peripherals |
12.4 - 12.6 (.496)
|
|
Rangers
|
Opponents
|
|
| Batting Line |
.258/.322/.430
|
.273/.347/.406
|
| Steals / Caught |
11 / 3
|
6 / 7
|
| Runs scored per game |
4.92
|
5.44
|
| Expected runs based on peripherals |
4.77
|
4.81
|
| Team OPS |
.752
|
.753
|
| Park Factor (hitting) |
1.002
|
|
| Adjusted League OPS |
.739
|
|
| Team OPS+ |
102
|
| Team ERA |
5.10
|
| Park Factor (pitching) |
.965
|
| Adjusted League ERA |
4.19
|
| Team ERA+ |
82
|
|
Team
|
Rotation
|
Bullpen
|
|
| Team ERA |
5.10
|
4.41
|
6.50
|
| Component ERA |
4.49
|
4.12
|
6.15
|
| Component ERA adjusted for .301 average on balls hit into play |
4.43
|
4.14
|
5.04
|
| Team WHIP |
1.50
|
1.38
|
1.73
|
| Team K / 9 |
5.66
|
5.01
|
7.00
|
| Team BB / K ratio |
1.45
|
1.53
|
1.36
|
| Rotation innings per start |
6.04
|
Batting
Texas has scored about four more runs than expected based on a batting line of .258/.322/.430 with 11 steals and three caught. The Ballpark has played neutral to hitters so far in terms of OPS. That won’t last, but supposing it does, Texas still has no chance to contend if they continue to score under five runs per game. Even with league-wide offense down from previous years, their .258 average and .322 OBP won’t suffice. Their walk rate is adequate, but otherwise this team lives and dies by the home run.
Best Hitter: David Dellucci, even with only 17 starts.
Worst Hitter: Richard Hidalgo, or, if you like, Gary Matthews.
Pitching
The staff allowed a mere fourteen homers in 24 games but also surrendered a league-worst 54 doubles, an unsightly 2.25 per game (about 1.5 per game is typical). Texas permitted a slugging percentage of only .406 but still permitted 5.44 runs per game, almost two-thirds of a run per game more than expected. Opponents are slugging only .410 with runners in scoring position but are also batting .293. Singles score runs, too.
Texas used only five starters in April and finished with a respectable 4.41 ERA and just over six innings per start. In a complete reversal of last year, the weak link is the bullpen, which has a walked five batters per nine innings. While the peripherals indicate the bullpen ERA should be over 5.00 instead of 6.50, that 1.73 WHIP tells a truer, uglier tale. Losing Francisco Francisco and Carlos Almanzar (effectively, if not corporeally) has crippled the bullpen, forcing Doug Brocail into high-leverage situations and dropping fifteen innings into the wild hands of Matt Riley and Ryan Bukvich.
Best Pitcher: Kenny Rogers, though his 2.67 ERA is a red herring. Pedro Astacio gets honorable mention.
Worst Pitcher: Matt Riley, because Carlos Almanzar has other things on his mind.
Posted by Lucas at May 1, 2005 09:09 PM