The Ranger Rundown

« Week-Whatever Photo | Main | On Jackie Moore in 2008 »

October 11, 2013

On Darvish's Perceived Weaknesses

I've performed a quick analysis of perceived weaknesses in Darvish's game. I was prompted by Richard Durrett's column today: Can Yu Darvish Be Like Verlander and Wainwright? I wouldn't call this a direct response to Durrett, even though I'll be using his pitchers for comparison. I've been thinking about this for a while.

Leads Lost

Perhaps the largest complaint lodged against Darvish is his inability to maintain leads. Darvish did indeed lose his share, the implication (or explicit accusation) by some being that he lacks mental toughness. (Durrett doesn't go there, I should note.) Still, has anyone bemoaning Darvish's loss of leads compared him to other pitchers? Maybe, but I've yet to see it. I did the research myself and tweeted in mid-September:

Adam Wainwright has allowed more 1st-inning runs (19) than Yu Darvish (17). On more occasions (9 vs 8). And given up more leads (11 vs 10).

— Scott Lucas (@scottrlucas) September 15, 2013

Here's the end-of-season results for Darvish, Wainwright and Verlander:

Darvish did lose a few more leads in innings 6-7 than the others, but on the whole, there's no evidence that he was worse at maintaining a lead than Wainwight or Verlander. Texas also fared better in those games, although I'd attribute that mostly to luck.

1st Inning Runs Allowed

Darvish was pretty sloppy in the 1st inning. Wainwright was worse. While putting your team in a hole is problematic, from an analytical standpoint there's a danger in getting too granular. You might end up arguing about a pitcher's bad ERA in the 6th inning, which is silly.

Efficiency

Darvish's outs per 100 pitches equal to the league average. He could be better. Verlander was worse.

Run Support

Adjusted for parks, Justin Verlander received about .26 runs per game more than Darvish, a little over eight runs over the course of the season. In the aggregate, that's worth almost one additional win. The difference between Darvish and Wainwright is a whopping .95 runs per game (Wainwright pitches in the NL in a friendlier park.) Imagine Texas record with an addition 30 runs of support with Darvish on the mound.

1-0 Losses

No comment.

Frequency and Winning in Best Performances

Darvish was the equal of Wainwright and Verlander at allowing one or fewer runs. Courtesy of Texas's difficulties at the plate, he endured the most losses.

Total Professional Innings

Durrett notes Darvish's lack of experience in general and in big games ("It's not as if Wainwright and Verlander just showed up in the big leagues and did that [i.e., pitched like Verlander last night] right away".) I'm a little mystified by that, as Darvish really didn't just "show up" last year. Darvish has made no fewer than ten postseason starts in Japan (as best as I can tell) plus last year's MLB Wild Card. He has 355 more regular seasons innings than Wainwright and barely 100 fewer than Verlander. Sure, Japanese baseball doesn't compare to the US, but I certainly wouldn't leave it out of the discussion.

I don't have stats for Darvish's first five playoff starts in Japan. I assumed 6 IP per game, which, given his usage, is probably low.

Advanced Stats

I'm not going to belabor the advanced stats, other than to say that Darvish is very obviously in the same class as Verlander and Wainwright.

Conclusion

Darvish has room to improve. We all do. But I'd argue that Darvish is already the equal of Verlander and Wainwright. What's separating Darvish from Verlander and Wainwright this October is opportunity.

Posted by Lucas at October 11, 2013 06:23 PM