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August 05, 2006

Who Is Hank Blalock?

Should we abandon the idea of Hank Blalock becoming a great player?

I keep reminding myself that Blalock doesn’t turn 26 until November. We can still use words like “upside” and “potential” around him without fear of reprisal. Sadly, however, the cold facts demonstrate that Blalock has declined steadily since his stellar 2003, to the point of mediocrity and beyond.

Everyone knows his second-half troubles. The DMN’s Gerry Fraley mentioned Blalock’s improved diet and workout regimen in a column last month, but to date they haven’t helped. His 2006 post-All Star break line is .266/.298/.316.

Unfortunately, Blalock’s problems have extended to the season’s early months. His pre-break numbers have declined from 2004’s stellar OPS of .941 to 2005’s adequate .825 to 2006’s vanilla .795. Ignoring his abortive 2002, cutting his career in halves produces the following:

Span
Plate Apps.
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
2B+3B
HR
BB
3/30/03 to 9/15/04 1252
.287
.352
.514
.866
73
59
111
9/16/04 to present 1238
.272
.329
.427
.755
58
39
96
Difference
-
(.015)
(.023)
(.087)
(.111)
-21%
-33%
-13%

Comparing the first half of his career to his second, Blalock’s batting average has fallen by fifteen points, his rate of doubles and triples by 21%, his homer rate by 33%, and his walk rate by 13%.

Worst of all: During the last calendar year, Hank Blalock has batted .265/.318/.391.

Here’s another exercise that illustrates who he was and who he’s become. I compared his batting line (AVG/OBP/SLG) to all MLB regulars during 2003-2006. Summing the squares of the differences between his and his peers’ average, OBP and slugging percentage reveals his closest comparisons. In an effort to keep things simple, I haven’t adjusted for park factors. As a third baseman, Blalock’s batting peers should mostly players on the corners (first and third base, left and right field, plus designated hitter) with fewer up-the-middle types (catcher, second, short, center field). From 2003 to the present, that is the case:

Hank Blalock's Closest Batting Comparisons, 2003-Present

Rank
 Player
AVG
OBP
SLG
Corner
Middle
-
 Hank Blalock
.279
.340
.471
3B
1
 Mike Lowell
.273
.339
.471
3B
2
 Aaron Rowand
.282
.337
.463
CF
3
 Chad Tracy
.289
.345
.470
1B/3B
4
 Ben Broussard
.270
.335
.475
1B/DH
5
 Raul Ibanez
.288
.349
.465
COF
6
 Mike Piazza
.272
.353
.470
C
7
 Adrian Beltre
.274
.328
.477
3B
8
 Mike Barrett
.282
.343
.486
C
9
 Kevin Mench
.277
.336
.487
COF
10
 Juan Rivera
.288
.337
.485
COF

Seven of the top ten comparisons are corner players, but none is a star. The best comparisons are probably Tracy and Rowand, who like Blalock have lived in hitter-friendly parks. Lowell spent much of the last four years in Florida.

Hank Blalock's Closest Batting Comparisons, 2004-Present

Rank
 Player
AVG
OBP
SLG
Corner
Middle
-
 Hank Blalock
.272
.337
.454
3B
1
 Mike Lowell
.272
.335
.451
3B
2
 Aubrey Huff
.277
.342
.456
3B/COF
3
 Torii Hunter
.271
.338
.461
CF
4
 Eric Byrnes
.267
.331
.452
CF
5
 Ramon Hernandez
.276
.329
.460
C
6
 Craig Biggio
.273
.331
.463
2B
7
 Mike Cuddyer
.264
.340
.447
3B/COF
8
 Jhonny Peralta
.275
.349
.458
SS
9
 Aaron Rowand
.282
.339
.464
CF
10
 Geoff Jenkins
.271
.344
.467
COF

From 2004 to present, only four of Blalock’s closest comparisons play the corners. Lowell makes another appearance along with several other players in decline like Aubrey Huff, Craig Biggio and Geoff Jenkins, all of whom are several years older than Blalock.

Hank Blalock's Closest Batting Comparisons, 2005-Present

Rank
 Player
AVG
OBP
SLG
Corner
Middle
-
 Hank Blalock
.271
.327
.427
3B
1
 Orlando Hudson
.274
.327
.429
2B
2
 Aaron Rowand
.267
.327
.422
CF
3
 Aubrey Huff
.264
.329
.431
3B/COF
4
 Damian Miller
.270
.336
.419
C
5
 AJ Pierzynski
.284
.331
.429
C
6
 Jose Castillo
.268
.315
.418
2B
7
 Javy Lopez
.273
.319
.439
C
8
 Jose Reyes
.280
.320
.417
SS
9
 Ron Belliard
.285
.327
.435
2B
10
 Ben Molina
.288
.328
.430
C

Since 2005, just one of Blalock’s ten most similar hitters plays on a corner. Blalock compares most favorably to Orlando Hudson, who supplies most of his value with his glove. During 2006 alone, Blalock’s best comparison is Kansas City’s Emil Brown.

I don’t mean to pile on. I just think that many Ranger fans, me included, have viewed him primarily in terms of his potential rather than what he’s actually done. We keep waiting for the “real” Hank Blalock of 2003 to return, but he continues to drift away. Every week provides more evidence that he can’t hit lefties, can’t hit on the road, and can’t hit after mid-July. His five-year, $15.25 million contract looked like a bargain in 2004. No longer. Texas owes him $10.7 million in 2007-2008.

If he can reverse this trend, starting tomorrow, Texas has a great chance of playing October baseball. If not, management has to consider a change, as it did last offseason.

Posted by Lucas at August 5, 2006 09:06 PM