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September 19, 2009
The Downside of the Teixeira Trade
On July 31, 2007, Texas traded 1B Mark Teixeira and lefty reliever Ron Mahay for catchers Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Elvis Andrus, and pitchers Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones. Would the Rangers make that trade again? Yes, unquestionably. Despite the frustrating lack of development from Saltalamacchia, easily the most advanced prospect at the time of the trade, the Rangers are already at the cusp of surpassing Atlanta in terms of value at the MLB level for the players it received. As of the July trade deadline, Texas trailed Atlanta by 1.3 wins above replacement (using Fangraphs methodology), 4.0 (using Win Shares), or 5.9 (Baseball Prospectus). Furthermore, the Rangers have had and will have their players under cost-effective control for several seasons, while Atlanta -- having traded Teixeira for Kotchmann for free-agent-to-be LaRoche -- will have (almost) nothing from the trade in their employ in two weeks.
That said, more than two years since the trade, the Rangers have failed to find Teixeira's replacement. Chris Davis certainly looked like The Answer during the tail end of 2008, but 2009 has been disastrous: .202/.256/.415 with a 41% strikeout rate before a demotion to AAA, a better but still inadequate .263/.299/.438 with a 30% SO rate since his return. Roughly, I'd say he needs a .625 slugging percentage to adequately offset his season-long .262 OBP; to achieve that, he'd need 39 homers instead of his present 19.
Davis isn't the only culprit, of course, only the most prominent (keeping in mind he's only 23 and should not be forsaken yet). Other hitters, many of them established and ostensibly reliable, has reached base at only a marginally better rate and have provided minimal power.
| Player | PA | AB | H | R | 2B+3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Chris Davis | 546 | 507 | 120 | 74 | 24 | 31 | 85 | 33 | 183 | 0 | .237 | .286 | .469 |
| Hank Blalock | 375 | 351 | 92 | 46 | 22 | 15 | 49 | 19 | 77 | 0 | .262 | .299 | .462 |
| F. Catalanotto | 160 | 141 | 39 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 0 | .277 | .354 | .355 |
| Chris Shelton | 108 | 88 | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | 1 | .227 | .352 | .352 |
| Brad Wilkerson | 95 | 82 | 20 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 25 | 1 | .244 | .326 | .427 |
| J. Saltalamacchia | 91 | 89 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 0 | .213 | .231 | .337 |
| Ben Broussard | 88 | 81 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | .160 | .227 | .272 |
| Jason Botts | 20 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | .211 | .250 | .474 |
| Max Ramirez | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | .100 | .182 | .100 |
| Andruw Jones | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| TOTAL | 1499 | 1373 | 329 | 187 | 67 | 57 | 187 | 102 | 386 | 2 | .240 | .295 | .422 |
Let's reiterate for emphasis: In the two-plus years since the Teixeira trade, Texas's first baseman have batted .240/.295/.422. The non-Davis contingent, with nearly two-thirds of the plate appearances, has slugged .394. .394! Here's the performance of Texas's first basemen scaled to 162 games and compared to the average of other AL 1Bs during 2007-2009:
| - | PA | AB | H | R | 2B+3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Texas | 665 | 609 | 146 | 83 | 30 | 25 | 83 | 45 | 171 | 1 | .240 | .295 | .422 |
| Rest of AL | 665 | 582 | 157 | 83 | 36 | 24 | 90 | 68 | 113 | 3 | .268 | .347 | .456 |
| Difference | - | 27 | (11) | 0 | (6) | 1 | (7) | (23) | 58 | (2) | (.028) | (.052) | (.034) |
Over the course of a season, the average non-Texas first baseman has collected 11 more hits (including six doubles but one fewer homer) and 23 additional walks.
Using a minimum of 400 plate appearances in a season, which individual AL batters have most closely imitated Texas's 1Bs during this span? Frankly, few players match well, because hitters with sub-.300 on-base percentages tend to lose their jobs.
| Player | Year | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Mike Jacobs | 2009 | .234 | .304 | .409 |
| Rod Barajas | 2009 | .237 | .269 | .420 |
| Vernon Wells | 2007 | .245 | .304 | .402 |
| Brandon Inge | 2009 | .234 | .321 | .425 |
| Alex Gordon | 2007 | .247 | .314 | .411 |
| Emil Brown | 2008 | .244 | .297 | .386 |
| Gary Matthews | 2007 | .252 | .323 | .419 |
| Juan Uribe | 2007 | .234 | .284 | .394 |
| Ramon Hernandez | 2008 | .257 | .308 | .406 |
| Aubrey Huff | 2009 | .245 | .310 | .395 |
Huff is the only player to spend a majority of his time at first base (Jacobs has mostly DH'ed). 1Bs outside the top ten but reasonably close to Texas's aggregate performance include Lyle Overbay (.240/.315/.391 in 2007), this year's version of Huff (.253/.321/.405) and Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399).
Justin Smoak, Rangers Nation turns its lonely eyes to you (woo woo woo).
Posted by Lucas at September 19, 2009 10:25 AM