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April 10, 2007
Is Wilkerson Toast?
Brad Wilkerson’s game-ending at-bat against Jon Papelbon Sunday night was about as sad a display as you’ll ever see. Certainly, Papelbon has a habit of making hitters look stupid, but Wilkerson wouldn’t have made contact even if he’d been allowed ten strikes. Honestly, he looks like a pitcher sometimes.
It’s nothing new. Wilkerson struggled with a sore shoulder immediately upon joining the Rangers, and his tenure as leadoff hitter ended after just eight games. The salt in the wound was Alfonso Soriano’s rejuvenation as a Senator after two lackluster years in Texas. It doesn’t help that Soriano looks like an athlete and Wilkerson looks… well, doughy. Not that Wilkerson isn’t athletic. I’m just sayin’.
Presumably, in 2007 Wilkerson’s renewed health would pay dividends. Alas, the early returns are not promising. Wilkerson is known for taking the count deep, resulting in plenty of walks and strikeouts. Before joining Texas, his strikeouts weren’t a serious problem. Despite ranking among the top five in strikeouts in the NL from 2002-2005, Wilkerson consistently reached based at about a .370 rate and supplied plenty of doubles and a decent number of home runs. As a Ranger, his OBP hovers around .300 and he strikes out more than ever.
Using 2006 stats, I reviewed his and others’ performances in four categories:
1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch.
2. Percentage of PAs with a two-strike count.
3. Percentage of PAs with an 0-2 count.
4. Percentage of PAs in which the batter struck out without ever taking ball one.
The first two stats don’t indicate much on their own. Although hitters tend to do very well when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, a high percentage by itself does not indicate does not indicate a good hitter. Recognizing and taking advantage of a fat first pitch is the hallmark of a great hitter, but swinging at too many first pitches indicates lack of discretion. Likewise, having a high number of two-strike counts isn’t bad in and of itself.
Conversely, too many 0-2 counts are cause for concern. Hitters are at a huge disadvantage on an 0-2 count. Even very patient hitters who walk often tend to avoid them. Finally, striking out without ever seeing a ball outside the zone is an obvious failure.
For purposes of comparing hitters to Wilkerson, I couldn’t find a database of breakdowns of batter performance by ball-strike count, so I built an abbreviated one using four cohorts:
BB Kings (clever, no?): Ten batting-title qualifiers with the best walk rates in 2006. Wilkerson has walked over 13% of his career plate appearances, an excellent rate.
The group includes David Ortiz, Jason Giambi, Travis Hafner, Manny Ramirez, Nick Johnson, Carlos Beltran, Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell.
K Kings: Ten batters with the highest strikeouts ratios in 2006. Wilkerson would have joined this group had he achieved enough appearances.
This group consists of Thome, Dunn and Burrell (also BB Kings), Curtis Granderson, Richie Sexson, Jhonny Peralta, Bill Hall, Ryan Howard, Andy LaRoche, and Geoff Jenkins.
Hackers: Ten batters with the worst walk-to-strikeout ratios in 2006. Wilkerson is definitely not a hacker, at least as I’ve defined the term here. I’m attempting to pick a group of hitters ostensibly inferior to Wilkerson to see how he measures up.
The Hackers are Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Francoeur, Preston Wilson, Shea Hillenbrand, Craig Monroe, Pedro Feliz, Jacque Jones, Ivan Rodriguez, AJ Pierzynski, and Clint Barmes. (Three Tigers in this group.)
Rangers: The top eight Rangers in plate appearances in 2006. All the other group consist of outliers; the Rangers should represent a broader mix of talents.
The Rangers are Barajas. Teixeira, Kinsler, Young, Blalock, DeRosa, Matthews and Mench.
With overlap, the comparison groups consist of 35 players. For each stat, I’ll list Wilkerson, the players with the highest and lowest percentages, and the averages of each cohort. Again, these are 2006 statistics.
1. Percentage of plate appearances ending on the first pitch
| Category | 1st-pitch action |
| J Francoeur | 21% |
| Average of Hackers | 15% |
| Average of Rangers | 12% |
| Average of K Kings | 10% |
| Average of BB Kings | 9% |
| B Abreu | 5.2% |
| B Wilkerson | 4.9% |
2. Percentage of plate appearances with two strikes
| Player | 2-Strike Counts |
| P Feliz | 39% |
| Average of Hackers | 44% |
| Average of Rangers | 45% |
| Average of BB Kings | 51% |
| Average of K Kings | 53% |
| B Hall | 58% |
| B Wilkerson | 59% |
3. Percentage of plate appearances with an 0-2 count
| Category | 0-2 Counts |
| P Feliz | 7% |
| Average of BB Kings | 15% |
| Average of Rangers | 17% |
| Average of Hackers | 17% |
| Average of K Kings | 18% |
| B Hall | 21% |
| Wilkerson | 25% |
4. Percentage of plate appearances in which the batter struck out and never took a pitch for a ball.
| Category | Ball-free strikeouts |
| B Abreu | 1.5% |
| Average of BB Kings | 2.5% |
| Average of Rangers | 3.1% |
| Average of K Kings | 4.1% |
| Average of Hackers | 4.2% |
| R Cedeno | 6.5% |
| B Wilkerson | 6.6% |
Wilkerson ranks last in every category. Compared to 35 other hitters, he was least likely to hit the first pitch into play, most likely to have a two-strike count, most likely to have an 0-2 count, and most likely to strike out without seeing ball one. As I mentioned previously, ranking last in the first two categories isn't problematic by itself. Bobby Abreu almost never puts the ball in play on the first pitch, and he's a stud.
No, the problem is the combination of all four stats. Wilkerson starts in a hole far too often without recovering. That’s not a result of too much patience. It’s inability to make contact. No hitter can survive without making good contact a reasonable percentage of the time, and Wilkerson has failed in that regard. That Wilkerson lapped the field in 0-2 counts is worst of all, because a batter with an 0-2 count is a dead man walking.
But that’s 2006, right? Old news. What about this year and Wilkerson’s healthy shoulder?
As I said, the early returns are not promising:
| Brad Wilkerson | 2006 | 2007 |
| First-pitch action (% of PAs) | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| 2-Strike Counts | 59% | 65% |
| 0-2 Counts | 25% | 30% |
| Ball-free strikeouts | 6.6% | 15.0% |
Wilkerson has declined in every category. I know it’s early, but he looks lost. I’ve previously predicted that the Rangers would (belatedly) replace Sammy Sosa’s attenuated bat by mid-May or June. At this rate, Wilkerson might not outlast Sosa.
Posted by Lucas at April 10, 2007 05:43 PM