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May 04, 2007
.299
Texas is scoring 4.4 runs per game despite an on-base percentage of .299. No team with a .299 OBP has ever exceeded four runs per game over a full season. The 1963 Cleveland Indians hold the “record” with 3.92 R/G on a line of .239/.299/.381. Here’s the five DH-era teams who’ve finished with a sub-.300 OBP:
Year |
Team | Runs / Game |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
SB |
CS |
1992 |
California | 3.57 |
.243 |
.298 |
.338 |
160 |
101 |
1990 |
New York | 3.72 |
.241 |
.296 |
.366 |
119 |
45 |
1981 |
Toronto | 3.10 |
.226 |
.284 |
.330 |
66 |
57 |
1981 |
Minnesota | 3.44 |
.240 |
.293 |
.338 |
34 |
27 |
1975 |
Detroit | 3.58 |
.249 |
.299 |
.366 |
63 |
57 |
As you might expect, most of these teams ran into a bunch of extra outs.
Texas has been very fortunate to score as many runs as they have. The obverse of the Rangers is the Royals, who are batting .297/.371/.470 to lead off an inning but only .242/.321/.371 in RISP situations. They’re scoring 3.9 runs per game, significantly worse than Texas.
The Rangers have zero probability of maintaining a sub-.300 OBP for the whole season. It’s just not going to happen. However, with a more even distribution of hits, it’s possible for their dull 4.4 run average to persist even as their OBP increases. If that happens, Texas will lose 90 games even if its pitching reverts to 2006 form.
Posted by Lucas at May 4, 2007 01:00 PM