« Weekend Photo | Main | New and Improved Org Chart »
September 03, 2007
What's Ailing Jason Botts?
At the halfway point of his trial period, Jason Botts is batting .202/.296/.288. Statistically, I see three problems:
1) Botts leads the team in pitches per plate appearances with 4.4, but his patience hasn’t resulted in enough walks to mitigate his batting average. Though he’s drawn more walks recently, his overall rate of 9.3% barely surpasses the AL rate of 8.5%.
For that matter, the second and third most patient Rangers, Brad Wilkerson and Ramon Vazquez, have walk rate of 8.9% and 9.6%, respectively. The correlation between pitches per appearance and walks is strong but not absolute; Brandon Inge, Felipe Lopez, and Bill Hall are examples of “patient” players with only low-to-average walk rates.
2) Botts has simply been terrible at turning first-pitch swings into fair balls.
He’s swung at 32% of first pitches, more often than I would have guessed and easily among the upper half among Rangers with at least 100 appearances. The 1st pitch is money for most hitters -- the AL is batting .342 and slugging .545 when putting the ball in play on the 1st pitch. Botts has been no exception, batting .429 and slugging .857.
Sad to say, Botts has only seven one-pitch appearances despite swinging at 35 first pitches. His 20% contact rate is less than one-half the team average of 42%.
| Player | First-Pitch Balls In Play / First Pitches Swung At |
| Jerry Hairston | 55% |
| Kenny Lofton | 53% |
| Frank Catalanotto | 52% |
| Travis Metcalf | 51% |
| Michael Young | 50% |
| Gerald Laird | 50% |
| Ian Kinsler | 48% |
| Ramon Vazquez | 46% |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 43% |
| Average Among Group | 42% |
| Mark Teixeira | 41% |
| Brad Wilkerson | 39% |
| Sammy Sosa | 37% |
| Marlon Byrd | 37% |
| Victor Diaz | 32% |
| Hank Blalock | 32% |
| Nelson Cruz | 29% |
| Jason Botts | 20% |
After first pitches, the Rangers as a whole have an 0-1 count in 49% of their appearances. The AL average is 47%. For Botts, it’s 60%.
3) Following from 2), Botts lead the team in percentages of plate appearances reaching an 0-2 count, which is death to hitters. The AL is batting .183/.215/.264 after beginning 0-2.
| Player | % of PAs with 0-2 Count |
| Jason Botts | 28% |
| Marlon Byrd | 26% |
| Victor Diaz | 24% |
| Travis Metcalf | 23% |
| Jerry Hairston | 22% |
| Michael Young | 21% |
| Nelson Cruz | 21% |
| Ramon Vazquez | 20% |
| Average Among Group | 20% |
| Ian Kinsler | 20% |
| Brad Wilkerson | 19% |
| Sammy Sosa | 19% |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 18% |
| Mark Teixeira | 18% |
| Gerald Laird | 16% |
| Frank Catalanotto | 15% |
| Hank Blalock | 15% |
| Kenny Lofton | 15% |
Too often, Botts’s lengthy plate appearances result from laying off junk after starting in an 0-1 or 0-2 hole. That’s not a terribly productive use of his patience.
One odd source of comfort is Botts’s career. He’s started slowly at every level except during his rookie season in 2000. Unfortunately, this time he probably has only one month to heat up.
Posted by Lucas at September 3, 2007 08:53 PM