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March 06, 2010

Can Michael Young reach 3,000 base hits?

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan answered the question thusly:

Does Michael Young have a realistic shot at 3,000 career hits?
-- Maggie W., Burleson, Texas

Yes. Young, who turned 33 last October, has 1,662 career hits. Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, comparable as a hitter to Young, had 1,561 hits in eight full seasons after turning 33. Craig Biggio had 1,380 hits in eight seasons after turning 33. But there are also many players who had numbers similar to Young at this point in his career and ultimately fell well short of 3,000 hits. So much depends on Young staying healthy because physical issues have kept him from getting 200 hits in each of the past two seasons.

Two weeks later, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News expanded on Young-for-3,000 possibility with comparisons to Barry Larkin, Craig Biggio, Julio Franco, and, most notably, Paul Molitor.

For my part, I began examining the likelihood of Young reaching 3,000 hits soon after Sullivan’s article, then let it slide because of my real job. Once Grant added his two cents, I hurriedly finished my research for a March 1st post. Nope… work and Cat Search 2010 consumed another week. So, at last…

Here’s the 3,000 Hit Club minus Cap Anson, whose inaugural season predates the National League and ended in 1897:

Player (age)
Career
Hits
Debut Age
Hits thru Age 23 Season
Hits thru Age 32 Season
Hits after Age 32 Season
Age of Last Season as Qualifier
Age of Last Season
Michael Young - 24 0 1662 - - -
Pete Rose 4256 22 309 2152 2104 42 45
Ty Cobb 4189 18 959 2713 1476 40 41
Hank Aaron 3771 20 718 2434 1337 41 42
Stan Musial 3630 20 584 2223 1407 41 42
Tris Speaker 3514 19 547 2232 1282 39 40
Honus Wagner 3420 23 81 1751 1669 42 43
Carl Yastrzemski 3419 21 529 1952 1467 42 43
Paul Molitor 3319 21 467 1751 1568 41 41
Eddie Collins 3315 19 487 1981 1334 38 43
Willie Mays 3283 20 352 2033 1250 40 42
Eddie Murray 3255 21 526 2021 1234 40 41
Nap Lajoie 3242 21 451 1909 1333 40 41
Cal Ripken 3184 20 569 2087 1097 40 40
George Brett 3154 20 544 1967 1187 40 40
Paul Waner 3152 23 180 2036 1116 36 42
Robin Yount 3142 18 871 2407 735 37 37
Tony Gwynn 3141 22 149 1864 1277 38 41
Dave Winfield 3110 21 307 1761 1349 41 43
Craig Biggio 3060 22 140 1680 1380 41 41
Rickey Henderson 3055 20 553 1888 1167 39 44
Rod Carew 3053 21 428 2085 968 39 39
Lou Brock 3023 22 115 1808 1215 38 40
Rafael Palmeiro 3020 21 257 1792 1228 39 40
Wade Boggs 3010 24
0
1784 1226 38 41
Al Kaline 3007 18 880 2228 779 39 39
Rbto. Clemente 3000 20 554 2238 762 37 37
Average
-
20.7
462
2,030
1,267
39.5
41.1
Median
-
21
487
2,001
1,264
40
41

The breakdown of their careers indicates several serious obstacles to Young’s attempt to join them:

1. Recall that Young did not join Texas as a fully assembled 200-hit machine. Drafted as a 20-year-old out of UC Santa Barbara, he needed nearly a full season at each level of the minors above rookie-ball. Aside from a tiny sip of coffee in 2000, Young’s Major League career didn’t commence until 2001, his Age 24 season. During 2001-2002, his Age 24 and 25 seasons, he batted a meager .257/.304/.390. He spent April 2002 time-sharing second base with Frank Catalanotto, after which Little Cat’s shift to four-corner super-sub initiated Young’s seven-year quasi-Iron Man streak.

The late and tepid start is obviously problematic. Wade Boggs is the only member of the 3,000-hit club to collect his first hit during his Age 24 season. The average age was 20.7, the median 21. The non-Boggs contingent accumulated an average of 462 hits before their Age 24 seasons. Others with relatively modest starts were Wagner (81), Lou Brock (115), Tony Gwynn (149), and Paul Waner (180).

2. Because of the above, Young’s 1,662 hits through his Age 32 season trail every member of the 3,000-hit club at the same stage in his career. Closest are Craig Biggio (1,680), Paul Molitor (1,751), and Honus Wagner (1,751).

3. On average, members of the 3,000-hit club collected 1,267 hits subsequent to their Age 32 season. Young needs 1,338, a figure that only seven of the 26 members attained. Thus, even among this group of baseball’s most elite hitters, Young must perform better than average.

4. If Young wants to achieve 3,000 hits before turning 40, he’ll need to average 191 for the next seven seasons. In the near future, he has a reasonably good chance to do so. Come mid-decade, he’s bucking ridiculous odds. Only three players have achieved the more economical sum of 160 hits during their Age 37, 38 and 39 seasons: Pete Rose, Tris Speaker, and Sam Rice (who actually didn’t reach 3,000). The combination of bat speed, stamina and good health at that age is extraordinarily rare.

So, given the unfavorable comparisons with those who achieved 3,000 hits, let’s examine Young in terms of the subsequent performance of players with similar careers through Age 32. I compiled a list of all hitters with at least 831 hits (one-half Young’s total) by the age and created a least-squares ranking using hits through each player’s Age 32 season, starting age of career, hits per game, and batting average. I also included (with less emphasis) batting average on balls in play, rate of walks plus HBP, and isolated power, all of which help to eliminate batters with extremely dissimilar hitting profiles. Without them, the list includes strange comparables like Jeff Bagwell.

A handful of the closest comparables (Jack Tobin, Babe Herman) were already done as regulars by the time they turned 32, so I manually deleted them. Everyone on this list qualified for the batting title for at least one more season, almost always more. Finally, I deleted active players. (Okay, the listed Garret Anderson is still active. But not very.) Note that this list isn’t akin to Bill James’s Similarity Scores. I’m not seeking the Young’s best overall matches, just for a specific set of characteristics.

The most similar 25, in order:

Player
Hits thru Age 32 season
Hits / Game
Debut Age
Batting Average
Career Hits
Hits after Age 32 season
Age of Last Season
Age of Last "Good" Season
Age of Last Season as Qualifier
Michael Young
1662
1.23
24 .302
-
-
-
-
-
Julio Franco 1605
1.17
23 .302 2586 981
48
46
38
Willie McGee 1548
1.17
23 .298 2254 706
40
38
34
Bob Meusel 1565
1.21
23 .311 1693 128
33
31
33
Kirby Puckett 1812
1.31
24 .321 2304 492
35
35
35
Bernie Williams 1629
1.18
22 .305 2336 707
37
33
36
Paul Molitor 1751
1.22
21 .300 3319 1568
41
40
41
Mark Grace 1514
1.17
24 .309 2445 931
39
37
37
Lou Brock 1808
1.18
22 .291 3023 1215
40
38
40
Bill Madlock 1557
1.16
22 .317 2008 451
36
36
34
Ken Boyer 1531
1.12
24 .296 2143 612
38
37
35
Dave Parker 1479
1.14
22 .305 2712 1233
40
39
40
Will Clark 1667
1.10
22 .300 2176 509
36
36
36
Jim Bottomley 1727
1.24
22 .325 2313 586
37
32
36
Garret Anderson 1766
1.20
22 .299 2501 735
37
32
37
Edd Roush 1732
1.21
20 .330 2376 644
38
36
36
Zack Wheat 1738
1.14
21 .302 2884 1146
39
39
37
Sam West 1503
1.10
22 .303 1838 335
37
35
33
Stan Hack 1581
1.15
22 .304 2193 612
37
36
35
Wally Moses 1438
1.20
24 .302 2138 700
40
38
34
Buddy Myer 1692
1.16
21 .302 2131 439
37
36
34
Gee Walker 1450
1.21
23 .310 1991 541
37
29
36
HR Baker 1510
1.19
22 .311 1838 328
36
33
33
Craig Biggio 1680
1.09
22 .292 3060 1380
41
35
41
Dick Groat 1636
1.16
21 .293 2138 502
36
33
35
Tony Lazzeri 1675
1.09
22 .297 1840 165
35
35
33
Average 1624
1.17
22.2
.305
2330 706
38.0
35.8 36.0
Median 1629
1.17
22
.302
2254 612
37
36 36

Note: A "Good" season in the table signifies at least 100 plate appearances and a batting average and on-base percentage above the park-adjusted league average.

Both of Sullivan’s comparisons and most of Grant’s appear on my list. Barry Larkin’s 190 fewer hits than Young, higher walk rate and “poor” .306 BABIP (because he struck out so infrequently) create a slightly less valuable comparison in my system. What I take from this set of players:

1. Three of Young’s 25 most similar hitters reached 3,000 hits: Molitor, Bagwell, and Lou Brock. As noted, all began their Year 33 seasons with more hits than Young.

2. Among those most similar to Young, only seven reached 2,500 hits, and five actually departed with less than 2,000. A search on “Bob Meusel,” famous for following Ruth and Gehrig in the Yankee lineups of the 1920s, reveals the epithets “lazy,” “indifferent,” and “unpopular,” three words never appended to Young. Meusel’s last good season came at Age 31, and by 33 he was done. Meusel aside, most of these players reached their mid-thirties in respectable form, but very few remained healthy and effective thereafter.

3. The average batter collected only 706 hits after his Age 32 season. Molitor (1,568) and Biggio (1,380) are dramatic outliers and the only two listed to surpass the 1,338 hits needed by Young.

4. Young will be fulfilling the final year of his five-year, $80 million contract as a 36-year-old. 12 of the 25 hitters most similar to Young failed to accumulate enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in their Age 36 seasons. That is to say, they were hurt, ineffective, or (in a few cases) already retired.

Michael Young has the second-most hits in baseball during the last seven years (trailing Ichiro). Better yet, his 1,416 hits during his Age 26-32 seasons are the sixth-most in MLB history, the others in an illustrious top ten being Heinie Manush, Boggs, Puckett, Rose, Harry Heilmann, Musial, Carew, and Rogers Hornsby. Despite those accomplishments, he’s highly unlikely to reach 3,000. Bill James’s “Favorite Toy” tool grants him an 18% chance. With no disrespect to Young, I would give those odds.

Posted by Lucas at March 6, 2010 05:31 PM