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October 06, 2010

Number-Oriented Thoughts on Texas versus Tampa Bay

Log5 Predictor

Bill James invented a formula for calculating the probability of victory based on two team’s winning percentages called “log5.” I’ve calculated the probability of each potential outcome two use data sets: 1) Texas and Tampa Bay’s actual won-loss record (both home and away), and 2) Baseball Prospectus’s 3rd-order wins (91.3 for Tampa Bay, 88.4 for Texas, about one-half the difference in their actual wins) plus a 4% advantage to the home team. Obviously, Tampa Bay will be favored since they own the better record and home-field advantage.

Method 1)
TAM home win % = .605
TEX road win % = .481
TAM 62% favorite to win at home

TEX home win % = .630
TAM road win % = .580
TEX 55% to win at home

Method 2)
TAM 60% to win at home, TEX 56% to win at home.

Results

Result
Based on H/R Records
Based on BP30 wins
TAM sweeps
17%
total:
60%
16%
total:
57%
TAM wins 3-1
19%
18%
TAM wins 3-2
24%
23%
TEX wins 3-2
14%
total:
40%
15%
total:
43%
TEX wins 3-1
18%
19%
TEX sweeps
8%
9%

The most likely scenario involves the Rays winning in a full five games. The Rangers are actually more likely to win in four games than five. Ignoring juice, some oddsmakers I’ve visited have the Rays at -135 to win the series, equivalent to 57%. Based on log5, the odds are close to “correct.”

The Deeper In

Offense

After adjusting for parks, Texas and Tampa Bay had pretty evenly matched offenses in 2010. The Rays play take and rake, finishing 13th of 14 teams in batting average and worst in strikeouts but also 1st in walks and in the middle of the pack in isolated power. The Rangers, on the other hand, led the league with a .276 batting average but displayed ordinary patience and power.

But Texas was hampered offensively by injuries to Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton plus the subpar performances of Justin Smoak (not forgiving his rookie status for this exercise), Chris Davis, and others. Tampa Bay had its own problems (Burrell, Blalock), but with a reasonably healthy lineup and adequate bat in the form of Mitch Moreland at 1st, do the Rangers trump the Rays offensively?

I recreated the batting lines of Texas and Tampa Bay based on projected playing time in a five-game series (for example, Jeff Francoeur starting Games 1 and 5 versus lefty David Price and including only his lefty slash stats). You can quibble with my estimates (how dare you) and the names on the bench (which haven’t been finalized as of early Wednesday morning), but one-game adjustments for a small handful of players wouldn’t affect the calculations much.

Pos Player
BA
OBP
SLG
AVG+
OBP+
SLG+
Games
C Bengie Molina
.240
.279
.320
83
83
77
2.50
C Matt Treanor
.211
.287
.308
86
86
74
1.50
1B Mitch Moreland
.255
.364
.469
109
109
112
3.00
1B Jorge Cantu
.235
.279
.327
83
83
78
2.00
2B Ian Kinsler
.286
.382
.412
114
114
99
5.00
3B Mike Young
.284
.330
.444
99
99
106
5.00
SS Elvis Andrus
.265
.342
.301
100
102
72
5.00
IF Andres Blanco
.277
.330
.349
99
99
84
0.25
OF Josh Hamilton
.359
.411
.633
123
123
152
5.00
OF Nelson Cruz
.318
.374
.576
112
112
138
5.00
OF David Murphy
.291
.358
.449
107
107
108
2.00
OF Jeff Francoeur
.300
.363
.442
108
108
106
2.00
OF Julio Borbon
.276
.309
.340
92
92
82
1.75
DH Vlad Guerrero
.300
.345
.496
103
103
119
5.00
- Team Total
-
-
-
104
105
107
-
Pos Player
BA
OBP
SLG
AVG+
OBP+
SLG+
Games
C John Jaso
.263
.372
.378
103
115
95
3.00
C Kelly Shoppach
.196
.308
.342
77
95
86
1.50
1B Carlos Pena
.196
.325
.407
77
101
102
5.00
2B/UT Sean Rodriguez
.292
.375
.442
114
116
111
2.00
3B Evan Longoria
.294
.372
.507
115
115
127
5.00
SS Jason Bartlett
.254
.324
.350
99
100
88
5.00
SS Reid Brignac
.256
.307
.385
100
95
96
0.25
IF Willy Aybar
.230
.309
.344
90
96
86
0.25
OF Carl Crawford
.307
.356
.495
120
110
124
5.00
OF Matthew Joyce
.241
.360
.477
94
111
119
5.00
OF B.J. Upton
.237
.322
.424
93
100
106
5.00
UT Ben Zobrist
.238
.346
.353
93
107
88
3.00
DH/4C Dan Johnson
.198
.343
.414
77
106
104
4.50
DH/OF Brad Hawpe
.245
.338
.419
89
97
97
0.25
- Team Total
-
-
-
96
107
106
-

Separating the wheat from the chaff results in much prettier OBP and slugging for both teams, as you’d expect. Texas leapfrogs the Rays in power but remains behind in on-base percentage. Combined with their modest superiority on the basepaths, the Rays own perhaps a very slight advantage on the Rangers offensively.

Pitching

I performed similar calculations for the rotations and bullpen but used Fangraphs’ WAR instead of a less trustworthy (especially for relievers) stat like ERA. I assigned innings to each starting pitcher roughly equivalent to average innings per start during 2010 rounded down to the nearest 1/3 inning and then subtracted another 1/3. Doing so creates a conservative estimate and assumes both managers will employ quick hooks to play the matchup game. I assumed a four-man rotation and assigned innings to the bullpen so that each team’s total was 45 innings (five games). Again, if you see something distasteful, note that small changes in innings and/or the personnel at the back of the bullpen make little difference.

Name
IP
WAR
WAR/IP
Playoff IP
Playoff WAR
Cliff Lee
108
3.3
0.031
14.3
0.44
C.J. Wilson
204
4.4
0.022
6.0
0.13
Colby Lewis
201
4.4
0.022
6.0
0.13
Tommy Hunter
128
0.7
0.005
5.0
0.03
TOTAL
-
-
-
-
0.73
Name
IP
WAR
WAR/IP
Playoff IP
Playoff WAR
David Price
209
4.3
0.021
13.0
0.27
James Shields
203
2.2
0.011
6.0
0.07
Matt Garza
205
1.8
0.009
6.0
0.05
Wade Davis
168
0.8
0.005
5.3
0.03
TOTAL
-
-
-
-
0.41

Here lies the striking difference between the teams. Not a single matchup favors the Rays. David Price bests Cliff Lee in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, but Lee triumphs in a variety of deeper stats (FIP, xFIP, strand rate, etc.). Again, for emphasis: to a man, Texas’s rotation is equal to or better than Tampa Bay’s.

Name
IP
WAR
WAR/IP
Playoff IP
Playoff WAR
Neftali Feliz
69
1.8
0.026
3.0
0.08
Alexi Ogando
41
0.8
0.020
2.0
0.04
Darren O'Day
62
0.9
0.015
2.0
0.03
Darren Oliver
62
1.5
0.024
2.0
0.05
Dustin Nippert
57
(0.3)
(0.005)
2.0
(0.01)
Derek Holland
57
0.8
0.014
1.3
0.02
Michael Kirkman
16
0.3
0.019
1.3
0.02
TOTAL
-
-
-
-
0.23
Name
IP
WAR
WAR/IP
Playoff IP
Playoff WAR
Rafael Soriano
62
1.7
0.027
3.0
0.08
Grant Balfour
55
1.2
0.022
2.3
0.05
Jeff Niemann
174
1.2
0.007
2.3
0.02
Joaquin Benoit
60
1.6
0.027
2.3
0.06
Chad Qualls
59
0.3
0.005
1.7
0.01
Randy Choate
44
0.5
0.011
1.7
0.02
Dan Wheeler
48
0.1
0.002
1.3
0.00
TOTAL
-
-
-
-
0.24

Both teams have strong bullpens with excellent closers and nobody truly awful on the back end. The worst of the lot, Dustin Nippert, carries the burden of saving his mates in the pen if a starter flames out.

Defense

The Rays and Rangers are excellent defensively. Tampa Bay holds a moderate .006 advantage in defensive efficiency, but per Baseball Prospectus, Texas retakes the league (indeed, leads all of baseball) when considering park effects.

Conclusions

Admittedly, this is an ungainly and imperfect analysis. However, I feel Texas’s passably healthy and revamped roster compares favorably with Tampa Bay’s and largely (if not totally) eliminates the six-game difference between them. This is an awfully close matchup. I’d still rank Tampa Bay as the favorite, if only because of home-field advantage, but a Texas victory shouldn’t be considered an upset. Not that I’m putting money on the outcome (having my emotional well-being on the line is plenty, thanks), but I’d take Texas at +125 over the Rays at -145.

And now, time to live on the edge of my seat for a few days. Hopefully, the next few weeks. Go Rangers.

Posted by Lucas at October 6, 2010 04:21 AM