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August 06, 2005

What Is Managament Thinking? The C.J. Wilson Saga

I come to praise C.J. Wilson, not to bury him.

At least I mean him no harm, and I don’t blame him (much) for his 10.23 ERA. The question is not “Why has Wilson pitched so badly,” but “What is management thinking?”

Wilson came to Texas in the 5th round of 2001 after one season at Loyola Marymount and two JuCo seasons. Effectively, he was the Rangers’ second pick, as they had no 2nd or 3rd round choices, and their 4th-round pick didn’t sign. (Incidentally, the only other player from that draft still in the organization is top pick Mark Teixeira.)

That year, Wilson pitched well in rookie ball and at low-A Savannah. In 2002, he made fifteen starts and eleven relief appearance at high-A Charlotte (Florida), posting at 3.06 ERA, allowing 3.5 walks per nine innings and striking out 6.5. Notably, he allowed only four homers in 106 innings. He pitched even better during five starts at AA (1.80 ERA, no homers allowed in 30 innings).

Going into 2003, Baseball America rated Wilson the Rangers’ #8 prospect. Wilson pitched inconsistently but slightly better than his 5.05 ERA would indicate (0.8 homers, 2.8 walks, and 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings). In August, Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2004. Wilson began 2005 in high-A Bakersfield, then moved back to AA after four starts. By early June, he had a grim 6.99 ERA.

I recap his history to show that he looked more like a project than a prospect as of June 2005. Nevertheless, on June 11 Texas added him to the 40-man roster and the big-league bullpen. Wilson made three acceptable relief appearances (three innings, five baserunners, one run) in five days, and on June 19 he made his first of five starts as a Major Leaguer:

Date Opp.
IP
H
R
ER
2B
3B
HR
BB
SO
HB
ERA
WHIP
6/19 WAS
3.67
9
3
3
0
0
0
0
2
1
7.36
2.73
6/27 LAA
4.67
8
7
5
3
0
0
2
0
0
9.64
2.14
7/2 sea
2.00
4
4
4
1
0
1
3
2
0
18.00
3.50
7/31 tor
6.00
8
4
4
0
0
1
0
6
1
6.00
1.50
8/5 BAL
2.67
9
8
8
3
0
2
2
0
0
27.00
4.12

Only one of his starts has approached respectability, a six-inning, four-run effort in Toronto. Opposing batters are hitting .432/.475/.670 against him as a starter. On balls hit into the field of play, opponents are hitting .436. Ordinarily, an average that high indicates incredibly bad luck. A typical Ranger pitcher should allow an average of about .310 on balls in play. In this case, I don’t think Wilson is unlucky, just unprepared for Major-League hitters. No pitcher allows a consistently higher-than-average hit rate on balls in play, because such a pitcher doesn’t stay in baseball long enough to have a career. This level is where Wilson resides right now; he can’t even approach a John Wasdin-like semi-effectiveness.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote the following this morning: “Young pitchers often learn by failing, as Atlanta's talented trio of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Steve Avery did in the late 1980s.” I understand Grant is comparing situations, not talent, but I think it’s instructive to study both. Certainly, clubs and scouts regarded Atlanta’s young trio more highly than Wilson. Avery was the third-overall pick of the 1988 draft. Glavine was a second round (47th overall) pick in 1984. Smoltz, while only a 22nd-round pick for Detroit in 1985, had developed enough that the Tigers surrendered him for Doyle Alexander during August of 1987. Indeed, all three “failed” during their rookie seasons, but none to the extent of Wilson:

Rookie Season
IP
ERA
ERA+
Tom Glavine
50
5.54
79
John Smoltz
64
5.48
67
Steve Avery
99
5.64
71
C.J. Wilson
22
10.23
47

Furthermore, the situations aren't comparable. The Braves of this period were a national joke, perennially at risk of losing 100 games and far worse than the Ranger of 2000-2003. Smoltz, Glavine and Avery debuted for moribund clubs playing for the future. Ostensibly, C.J. Wilson debuted for a contender fighting for the division lead:

Pitcher
Debut
Team Record
Tom Glavine
8/17/1987
50-67
John Smoltz
7/23/1988
32-61
Steve Avery
6/12/1990
22-33
C.J. Wilson
6/18/2005
37-29

Last night, Wilson offered his worst performance yet, allowing eight runs in only 2.2 innings. His ERA as a starter has ballooned to 11.37 (an ERA+ of 42). Nevertheless, manager Buck Showalter suggests Wilson will probably stay in the rotation at least as long as Kenny Rogers is suspended. At this point, Wilson may as well remain, because Texas is toast. The question is: Did no other club have a replacement-level starter toiling in AAA that Texas could have acquired cheaply? Even another John Wasdin would have provided a small boost to the rotation.

Again, I don’t blame Wilson. To summarize his minor-league history:

2001: Solid in rookie and low-A
2002: Solid in high-A and AA
2003: Struggled in AA, then surgery
2004: Did not pitch
2005: Struggled badly in AA

What is management thinking?

How did they expect Wilson to perform?

Did they genuinely expect to maintain their postseason hopes with him on the roster?

Posted by Lucas at August 6, 2005 02:47 PM