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April 15, 2005

Statistical Outlook

Texas through 10 games:

Actual won-loss record: 4-6, .400
Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and allowed (“Pythagorean�): 4.4-5.6, .440
Expected won-loss record based on offensive and defensive peripherals: 5.5-4.5, .550

Team batting line: .267/.340/.437
Team OPS: .777
Steals/Caught: 4/1
Runs scored per game: 5.30
Expected runs scored per game: 5.15

Opponent’s batting line: .267/.333/.409
Opponent’s OPS: .742
Steals/Caught: 4/3
Runs scored per game: 6.00
Expected runs scored per game: 4.63

Team ERA: 5.42
Component ERA: 4.27
Component ERA adjusted for balls in play: 4.40

Estimated park factor: 107
Adjusted park factor based on unequal games at home vs road: 103
Team OPS+: 103
Team ERA+: 85

Proof that anything can happen in ten games. Texas has a better OBP and substantially better slugging percentage than its opponents but has been outscored by seven runs. As is often the case, luck or skill or fate with runners on base tells the tale: Texas is batting a meager .239/.333/.337 in this category, opponents a robust .298/.391/.457 with 17 walks and only 12 strikeouts.

Texas pitching in general and the bullpen in particular have been awful, again mostly because of generosity once runners reach base. Compared to 2004, the current staff has decreased the opponents’ OPS by .032 but allowed an additional 1.1 runs per game. This cannot last. Expect Ranger opponents to hit worse with runners on base but better overall.

Posted by Lucas at April 15, 2005 05:40 PM