February 01, 2008
Wilkerson as a Mariner
My computer says .225/.317/.435. And then it says, "Don't make me think about Brad Wilkerson any more. Can we look at women in bikinis or something?"
Posted by Lucas at 01:38 AM
November 22, 2007
In The Year 2525...
...okay, not that far off.
But in the year 2011, the Angels will be paying 36-year-old Gary Matthews (career OBP+: 99) and 35-year-old Torii Hunter (career OBP+: 96) a combined $25 million (barring a trade or other event).
Better them than Texas.
Posted by Lucas at 02:39 AM
August 17, 2007
AL West Statistical Review
| OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Scored/game | 4.82 |
5.04 |
4.47 |
4.92 |
| Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 4.95 |
4.93 |
4.54 |
4.70 |
| RS+ | 97 |
102 |
98 |
105 |
| AVG | .258 |
.283 |
.252 |
.283 |
| AVG+ | 96 |
103 |
96 |
107 |
| OBP | .323 |
.342 |
.334 |
.337 |
| OBP+ | 96 |
100 |
101 |
101 |
| SLUG | .419 |
.414 |
.401 |
.419 |
| SLUG+ | 99 |
98 |
99 |
102 |
| Team OPS | .742 |
.756 |
.735 |
.756 |
| Team OPS+ | 95 |
98 |
101 |
103 |
| HR Rate | 2.8% |
1.9% |
2.7% |
2.5% |
| HRrate+ | 108 |
80 |
115 |
98 |
| BB Rate | 8% |
8% |
10% |
7% |
| BBrate+ | 97 |
93 |
120 |
74 |
| SO Rate | 20% |
14% |
17% |
14% |
| SOrate+ | 83 |
121 |
103 |
115 |
| Steals / Caught | 67 / 17 |
112 / 41 |
45 / 16 |
64 / 21 |
The Rangers rank only 6th in homers, but a less hitter-friendly park means they're still above average in that regard. As has often been the case in recent years, Texas doesn't reach base at an adequate rate. Contrary to popular opinioin, the concept of Texas's terrifying offense died with the departure of Alex Rodriguez. If anything, the '07 version is the blander brother of '04 and '05, when Texas augmented its deficient OBP with huge homer totals.
Only Tampa Bay and Cleveland strike out more often than Texas.
| PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 5.33 |
4.38 |
4.31 |
4.87 |
| Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 4.95 |
4.93 |
4.54 |
4.70 |
| RA+ | 93 |
115 |
104 |
101 |
| ERA | 4.90 |
4.07 |
3.93 |
4.61 |
| Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.53 |
4.51 |
4.16 |
4.30 |
| ERA+ | 92 |
111 |
106 |
93 |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 63 |
45 |
49 |
39 |
| Opp. AVG | .276 |
.263 |
.254 |
.277 |
| Opp. OBP | .357 |
.325 |
.320 |
.344 |
| Opp. OBP+ | 107 |
96 |
98 |
103 |
| Opp. SLUG | .428 |
.407 |
.383 |
.422 |
| Opp. SLUG+ | 102 |
97 |
95 |
103 |
| Opp. OPS | .785 |
.732 |
.703 |
.766 |
| Oppo. OPS+ | 109 |
93 |
93 |
107 |
| HR Rate | 2.4% |
2.5% |
2.0% |
2.2% |
| HRrate+ | 104 |
112 |
138 |
118 |
| BB Rate | 10% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| BBrate+ | 79 |
118 |
109 |
101 |
| SO Rate | 14% |
16% |
15% |
14% |
| SOrate+ | 91 |
115 |
105 |
96 |
| Opp. Steals / Caught | 67 / 36 |
80 / 21 |
89 / 23 |
57 / 24 |
Texas ranks last in walks allowed and 10th in strikeouts. The oppoing OPS+ of 109 is 13th in the AL, ahead of only Tampa Bay's crime against humanity (123 OPS+, .293/.363/.470).
| ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Rotation IP/G | 5.19 |
6.10 |
6.03 |
5.81 |
| Rotation ERA | 5.84 |
4.13 |
3.90 |
5.03 |
| Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 4.67 |
4.65 |
4.29 |
4.44 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 80 |
113 |
110 |
88 |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.56 |
3.93 |
4.00 |
3.83 |
| Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.24 |
4.23 |
3.90 |
4.03 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 119 |
108 |
97 |
105 |
Good bullpen, terrible rotation, forever and ever, amen. Tampa Bay's bullpen has a 6.52 ERA and a 65 ERA+.
| PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs per game | 4.82 |
5.04 |
4.47 |
4.92 |
| Expected RS/game | 4.72 |
4.94 |
4.70 |
4.89 |
| "Luck" per game | 0.10 |
0.10 |
(0.23) |
0.03 |
| "Lucky" runs scored | 12 |
12 |
(29) |
4 |
| Runs/G | 5.33 |
4.38 |
4.31 |
4.87 |
| Projected Runs / G | 5.31 |
4.63 |
4.31 |
5.04 |
| Luck per game | 0.02 |
(0.25) |
0.00 |
(0.17) |
| "Lucky" runs prevented | (2) |
29 |
(0) |
20 |
| Total Luck | 10 |
41 |
(29) |
23 |
The Angels are always lucky. Bastards.
| STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Actual Wins | 53 |
70 |
60 |
66 |
| Pythagorean Wins | 54 |
68 |
63 |
60 |
| Peripheral Wins | 53 |
63 |
66 |
57 |
After two months in which Texas appeared to have a better team than its actual record indicated, the Rangers' 53-67 mark now presents a depressingly accurate measure of quality. I did a double-take at the peripheral records of Oakland and LA, but Baseball Prospectus has them in the same order, albeit at 65 and 64 wins, respectively.
| PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.00 |
1.02 |
0.94 |
0.97 |
| Park Factor (Runs) | 1.02 |
1.01 |
0.93 |
0.97 |
Unseasonably cool weather and plain old luck have made The Ballpark less inclined to destroy pitchers lately. Traditionally pitcher-friendly-to-neutral Anaheim has moved the opposite way.
Posted by Lucas at 03:26 PM
June 27, 2007
All right, Mr. DeMille, I'm ready for my close-up
I feel like I'm being pushed aside, put on a back-burner, and I don't like that at all. If I'm not going to play here, give me enough respect to trade me or get rid of me. I think I deserve that.[If Manager Mike Scioscia] doesn't think I can help this team, there are teams out there I can help. I'm a quality player in the prime of my career. To go from playing every day to not playing at all, it's very disheartening.
We're winning, we're in first place, it could be a lot worse. But I know I can help this team win down the stretch, and you can't do that if you're not given the opportunity. I'm trying to stay positive, support my teammates. When you're winning, the last thing you want to be is a distraction.
I'm just not at a point in my career where I'm ready to sit on the bench.
Hillenbrand is batting .254/.275/.325.
220 MLB players have at least 200 plate appearances. He ranks 210th in on-base percentage, 211th in slugging percentage, and 216th in VORP.
Posted by Lucas at 09:39 AM
May 23, 2007
AL West Statistical Review
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.1 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
| OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Scored/game | 5.04 |
4.59 |
4.53 |
4.39 |
| Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 4.78 |
4.63 |
4.54 |
4.44 |
| RS+ | 106 |
99 |
100 |
99 |
| AVG | .250 |
.272 |
.252 |
.269 |
| AVG+ | 95 |
102 |
98 |
106 |
| OBP | .317 |
.325 |
.337 |
.320 |
| OBP+ | 95 |
97 |
103 |
98 |
| SLUG | .440 |
.399 |
.391 |
.407 |
| SLUG+ | 106 |
98 |
97 |
102 |
| Team OPS | .757 |
.724 |
.728 |
.727 |
| Team OPS+ | 102 |
94 |
100 |
100 |
| HR Rate | 3.8% |
1.9% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
| HRrate+ | 142 |
83 |
98 |
99 |
| BB Rate | 9% |
7% |
11% |
6% |
| BBrate+ | 99 |
80 |
122 |
69 |
| SO Rate | 19% |
13% |
17% |
12% |
| SOrate+ | 86 |
128 |
99 |
125 |
| Steals / Caught | 34 / 8 |
39 / 11 |
18 / 8 |
22 / 9 |
On a macro level, the Texas offense strongly resembles 2004 and 2006: high on homers, low on OBP, unexceptional overall. However, some recent high-scoring games have papered over a horrible April and the fact that Texas has scored five or more runs per game 10% less often than last year (43% vs 53%). Texas may have the best offense in the division, but surely it deserves no praise.
| PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 5.59 |
3.67 |
3.84 |
4.95 |
| Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 4.78 |
4.59 |
4.53 |
4.39 |
| RA+ | 86 |
125 |
118 |
89 |
| ERA | 5.12 |
3.43 |
3.47 |
4.74 |
| Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.34 |
4.21 |
4.13 |
4.03 |
| ERA+ | 85 |
123 |
119 |
85 |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 28 |
15 |
16 |
14 |
| Opp. AVG | .271 |
.248 |
.243 |
.276 |
| Opp. OBP | .354 |
.316 |
.302 |
.342 |
| Opp. OBP+ | 107 |
95 |
93 |
106 |
| Opp. SLUG | .435 |
.383 |
.373 |
.414 |
| Opp. SLUG+ | 106 |
95 |
93 |
105 |
| Opp. OPS | .789 |
.699 |
.675 |
.756 |
| Opp. OPS+ | 114 |
90 |
86 |
111 |
| HR Rate | 2.6% |
2.2% |
1.9% |
1.6% |
| HRrate+ | 88 |
120 |
127 |
147 |
| BB Rate | 9% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| BBrate+ | 87 |
113 |
120 |
114 |
| SO Rate | 13% |
18% |
16% |
12% |
| SOrate+ | 88 |
136 |
112 |
83 |
| Opp. Steals / Caught | 26 / 14 |
30 / 10 |
34 / 12 |
19 / 7 |
Texas ranks no higher than 11th in the AL in any “+” stat for pitching. Last year, the Rangers surrendered plenty of hits but kept walks and homers to acceptable levels. In 2007, on a team level, Texas has does nothing well from the mound. The Rangers no longer lead the league in unearned runs allowed. Thanks, Kansas City!
| ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Rotation IP/G | 5.3 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
| Rotation ERA | 6.01 |
3.24 |
3.11 |
5.65 |
| Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 4.39 |
4.34 |
4.29 |
4.23 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 73 |
134 |
138 |
75 |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.77 |
3.85 |
4.27 |
3.15 |
| Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.16 |
4.10 |
4.06 |
4.00 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 110 |
107 |
95 |
127 |
In terms of ERA+, Texas has the 5th best bullpen and worst rotation. No bullpen on Earth can mitigate a rotation with a 6.01 ERA.
| PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs per game | 5.04 |
4.59 |
4.53 |
4.39 |
| Expected RS/game | 4.87 |
4.53 |
4.63 |
4.47 |
| "Luck" per game | 0.17 |
0.06 |
(0.10) |
(0.08) |
| "Lucky" runs scored | 8 |
3 |
(5) |
(3) |
| Runs/G | 5.59 |
3.67 |
3.84 |
4.95 |
| Projected Runs / G | 5.34 |
4.22 |
3.87 |
4.93 |
| Luck per game | 0.25 |
(0.54) |
(0.03) |
0.02 |
| "Lucky" runs prevented | (11) |
25 |
1 |
(1) |
| Total Luck | (3) |
28 |
(3) |
(4) |
| STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Actual Wins | 18 |
28 |
22 |
20 |
| Actual Losses | 28 |
18 |
23 |
21 |
| Actual Win% | 0.391 |
0.609 |
0.489 |
0.488 |
| Pythag Wins | 20.7 |
28.0 |
26.2 |
18.0 |
| Pythag Losses | 25.3 |
18.0 |
18.8 |
23.0 |
| Pythag Win% | 0.449 |
0.609 |
0.582 |
0.440 |
| Periph Wins | 20.9 |
24.6 |
26.5 |
18.5 |
| Periph Losses | 25.1 |
21.4 |
18.5 |
22.5 |
| Periph Win% | 0.454 |
0.535 |
0.589 |
0.451 |
Texas has been pretty unlucky both in terms of Pythagorean and peripheral wins, which most definitely is not to say that it is a good team in hiding. The bad luck bodes well regarding the probability of avoiding 100 losses, but that’s about it. If the Rangers perform at their peripheral win percentage from here on, they’ll win 71 games. Yippee.
| PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.00 |
1.00 |
0.96 |
0.94 |
| Park Factor (Runs) | 1.01 |
0.98 |
0.96 |
0.94 |
Posted by Lucas at 12:00 PM
May 09, 2007
Homegrown Starting Pitchers
A list of starting pitchers developed by AL West teams during the Wild Card era. Criteria for listing: Player originally drafted or signed by the respective team, pitched 162 innings (or one inning per team game in strike years), and not yet eligible for free agency.
| Year | Texas | Los Angeles | Oakland | Seattle |
2006 |
- | John Lackey, Ervin Santana |
Joe Blanton, Barry Zito |
Felix Hernandez, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro |
2005 |
- | John Lackey | Joe Blanton, Barry Zito |
Ryan Franklin, Joel Pineiro |
2004 |
- | John Lackey | Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito |
Ryan Franklin, Joel Pineiro |
2003 |
- | John Lackey, Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn |
Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito |
Ryan Franklin, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro |
2002 |
- | Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn |
Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito |
- |
2001 |
Doug Davis | Ramon Ortiz, Scott Schoeneweis, Jarrod Washburn |
Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito |
- |
2000 |
- | Scott Schoeneweis | Tim Hudson | - |
1999 |
- | - | - | - |
1998 |
- | - | - | - |
1997 |
Darren Oliver | Jason Dickson | - | - |
1996 |
Darren Oliver, Roger Pavlik |
- | - | - |
1995 |
Roger Pavlik | - | - | - |
1994 |
Kevin Brown, Kenny Rogers |
- | Todd Van Poppel | Dave Fleming |
Texas has developed only one homegrown starter during the last nine seasons. Eighteen months after Davis qualified for the ERA title, Texas waived him.
Posted by Lucas at 08:33 PM
August 01, 2006
Currently in Last Place
Your Texas Rangers.
Posted by Lucas at 01:02 AM
July 24, 2006
The Mighty West
Let no man (or woman) impugn the dignity of the AL West, the so-called weakest of the three divisions. Since the All-Star break, all but Los Angeles have played a merciless schedule, and all have surpassed expectations:
| Team | Opponents | Opp. Win% |
Expected Record |
Actual Wins |
| Oakland | 4 @ BOS 3 @ BAL 3 @ DET |
.647 |
3.5-6.5 |
6-4 |
| Texas | 4 @ BAL 3 @ TOR 1 @ BOS 3 @ CHW |
.624 |
4.4-5.6 |
6-5 |
| Los Angeles | 3 vs TAM 3 vs CLE 4 @ KAN |
.414 |
5.7-4.3 |
7-3 |
| Seattle | 3 @ TOR 3 @ NYY 3 vs BOS |
.589 |
3.5-5.5 |
4-5 |
(Opp. Win% is the weighted average of the opponents' winning percentages at home or on the road, as applicable. Expected Record estimated with good old Log5.)
LA's cakewalk stumbles to a halt on Wednesday after they complete yet another series against Tampa Bay. The Angels had the easiest post-break schedule but have already burned through it. Now, they have the toughest remaining schedule:
| Team | Home |
Road |
vs Big Six |
vs Flab Four |
vs Division |
Opp. Win% |
| Los Angeles | 33 |
31 |
23 |
11 |
30 |
.529 |
| Seattle | 31 |
34 |
19 |
17 |
29 |
.516 |
| Texas | 31 |
32 |
12 |
16 |
35 |
.504 |
| Oakland | 35 |
29 |
19 |
17 |
28 |
.500 |
(Big Six = Boston, New York, Toronto, Detroit, Chicago Minnesota; Flab Four = Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore)
Notice how few games Texas has against the toughest opponents relative to their rivals. The Rangers host the Yankees this week, travel to Minnesota for three, and face Detroit six more times, all in Detroit. Gone are Boston, Chicago and Toronto, against whom Texas finished a keen 13-11.
Posted by Lucas at 01:14 AM
July 10, 2006
Scheduling the West
Every AL West team will play 74 games after the All-Star Break:
| Team | Home |
Road |
vs. BOS, CHW, DET, NYY |
vs KAN, TAM |
Opp. Win% |
| Los Angeles | 39 | 35 | 20 | 9 | .514 |
| Texas | 31 | 43 | 10 | 7 | .519 |
| Oakland | 35 | 39 | 16 | 10 | .520 |
| Seattle | 34 | 40 | 16 | 10 | .525 |
The last column is a weighted average of remaining opponents’ winning percentages and takes each team’s home and road record into consideration. Seems unfair that every team in the West must play a tougher-than-average schedule, yes? Well, courtesy of interleague play, the American League has an aggregate winning percentage of .523. Most Western teams actually catch a break because they play each other more than the teams atop the other divisions.
LA has the most games remaining at home but also has the most tough opponents, defined here as anyone more than ten games over .500. The Rangers will spend the most time on the road but is largely done with the toughest opponents. They also have only three more games against a strong Toronto club, while Oakland has seven.
Texas and Oakland meet up again on August 7th. Both teams have ferocious schedules until then, while LA gets to coast:
| Team | Home |
Road |
vs. BOS, CHW, DET, NYY |
vs KAN, TAM |
Opp. Win% |
| Los Angeles | 13 | 10 | 3 | 10 | .500 |
| Seattle | 9 | 12 | 6 | 0 | .539 |
| Oakland | 7 | 16 | 10 | 0 | .557 |
| Texas | 6 | 18 | 7 | 3 | .558 |
Might every team be under .500 in four weeks? Doubtful, but possible.
Posted by Lucas at 10:13 AM
July 04, 2006
The AL West Through July 3rd
Texas creeps past the halfway point as a nearly perfectly average ballclub: a 42-41 record, a park-adjusted index of 100 in runs scored, 99 in runs allowed, a team OPS+ of 101, and an OPS+ allowed of 100. The AL outscored the NL by a ridiculous 221 runs in interleague play, so an AL team must outscore its opponents by about sixteen runs just to be average.
Only three AL teams have fewer homers than Texas. The Rangers’ love of doubles (on pace for 393) has balanced the lack of long balls and kept their slugging percentage in the league’s midrange. Remarkably, the division’s best slugging team relative to home park is the usually basement-dwelling Seattle Mariners.
Texas and the Yankees are tied for fewest homers allowed in the AL. On the downside, only Baltimore and Kansas City have a lower ERA+ among starting rotations. LA ranks third in ERA but only ninth in runs allowed thanks to 58 unearned runs.
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.1 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
| OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Games | 83 |
82 |
82 |
84 |
| Runs Scored | 423 |
371 |
361 |
415 |
| Runs Scored/game | 5.10 |
4.52 |
4.40 |
4.94 |
| Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 5.11 |
4.77 |
5.04 |
4.87 |
| RS+ | 100 |
95 |
87 |
102 |
| AVG | .280 |
.257 |
.246 |
.271 |
| OBP | .344 |
.318 |
.327 |
.327 |
| OBP+ | 101 |
95 |
97 |
97 |
| SLUG | .448 |
.398 |
.394 |
.428 |
| SLUG+ | 100 |
94 |
92 |
102 |
| Team OPS | .792 |
.716 |
.721 |
.755 |
| Team OPS+ | 101 |
89 |
88 |
99 |
| HR Rate | 2.7% |
2.4% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
| BB Rate | 8% |
8% |
10% |
7% |
| SO Rate | 17% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
| Steals / Caught | 23 / 21 |
26 / 15 |
26 / 14 |
35 / 24 |
| PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Allowed | 411 |
397 |
365 |
393 |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.95 |
4.84 |
4.45 |
4.68 |
| Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 4.91 |
4.58 |
4.85 |
4.68 |
| RA+ | 99 |
95 |
109 |
100 |
| ERA | 4.72 |
4.17 |
4.16 |
4.41 |
| Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.60 |
4.30 |
4.55 |
4.39 |
| ERA+ | 98 |
103 |
109 |
99 |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 28 |
58 |
24 |
26 |
| Opp. AVG | .277 |
.256 |
.263 |
.263 |
| Opp. OBP | .342 |
.318 |
.338 |
.331 |
| Opp. OBP+ | 101 |
95 |
100 |
98 |
| Opp. SLUG | .418 |
.410 |
.412 |
.423 |
| Opp. SLUG+ | 93 |
97 |
96 |
101 |
| Opp. OPS | .760 |
.728 |
.750 |
.754 |
| Oppo. OPS+ | 100 |
98 |
102 |
105 |
| HR Rate | 2.3% |
2.8% |
2.6% |
2.9% |
| BB Rate | 8% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
| SO Rate | 16% |
19% |
15% |
17% |
| Opp. Steals / Caught | 29 / 23 |
37 / 22 |
41 / 23 |
35 / 22 |
| ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Rotation IP/G | 5.6 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
| Rotation ERA | 5.09 |
4.25 |
4.27 |
4.52 |
| Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 4.76 |
4.44 |
4.70 |
4.54 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 94 |
105 |
110 |
100 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.06 |
4.02 |
3.91 |
4.15 |
| Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.28 |
3.99 |
4.23 |
4.08 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 105 |
99 |
108 |
98 |
| PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs per game | 5.10 |
4.52 |
4.40 |
4.94 |
| Expected RS/game | 5.17 |
4.27 |
4.42 |
4.69 |
| "Luck" per game | (0.08) |
0.25 |
(0.02) |
0.25 |
| "Lucky" runs scored | (6) |
21 |
(2) |
21 |
| Runs/G | 4.95 |
4.84 |
4.45 |
4.68 |
| Projected Runs / G | 4.85 |
4.38 |
4.75 |
4.74 |
| Luck per game | 0.10 |
0.46 |
(0.30) |
(0.06) |
| "Lucky" runs prevented | (8) |
(38) |
24 |
5 |
| Total Luck | (15) |
(17) |
23 |
26 |
| STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Actual Wins | 42 |
38 |
43 |
42 |
| Actual Losses | 41 |
44 |
39 |
42 |
| Actual Win% | 0.506 |
0.463 |
0.524 |
0.500 |
| Pythag Wins | 42.7 |
38.2 |
40.5 |
44.3 |
| Pythag Losses | 40.3 |
43.8 |
41.5 |
39.7 |
| Pythag Win% | 0.514 |
0.466 |
0.494 |
0.527 |
| Periph Wins | 44.2 |
40.0 |
38.1 |
41.6 |
| Periph Losses | 38.8 |
42.0 |
43.9 |
42.4 |
| Periph Win% | 0.532 |
0.488 |
0.465 |
0.495 |
| PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.02 |
0.95 |
0.98 |
0.95 |
| Park Factor (Runs) | 1.01 |
0.94 |
1.00 |
0.96 |
Posted by Lucas at 08:04 PM
June 03, 2006
The AL West Through May (Well, Through June 2)
The Rangers lead the division as they did after April. Recent issues with run scoring (4.25 runs per game over the last twelve) have pulled them down to seventh in the AL in runs scored, below average once accounting for park. Texas does have an OPS+ of 103, so they've scored fewer runs than their line of .278/.348/.457 would suggest. Observe Seattle's hacktastic walk rate of 6%; the Mariners trail even the pitiful Royals in bases on balls.
Texas has an ERA+ of 106. As in 2004, the Rangers are winning more with pitching and defense than hitting. The key is a remarkably stingy 51 homers allowed, nine fewer than any West opponent and third fewest in the league. Texas trails only the Yankees in park-adjusted slugging percentage allowed. The rotation has held strong while the bullpen has regained respectability after a rough start.
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.2 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
| OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Games | 54 |
54 |
55 |
56 |
| Runs Scored | 275 |
242 |
246 |
256 |
| Runs Scored/game | 5.09 |
4.48 |
4.47 |
4.57 |
| Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 5.14 |
4.74 |
5.05 |
4.81 |
| RS+ | 99 |
95 |
89 |
95 |
| AVG | .278 |
.252 |
.243 |
.264 |
| OBP | .348 |
.310 |
.324 |
.318 |
| OBP+ | 102 |
93 |
96 |
95 |
| SLUG+ | .457 |
.391 |
.404 |
.395 |
| SLUG+ | 101 |
94 |
95 |
96 |
| Team OPS | .805 |
.701 |
.728 |
.713 |
| Team OPS+ | 103 |
87 |
91 |
91 |
| HR Rate | 3.2% |
2.4% |
3.3% |
2.1% |
| BB Rate | 9% |
7% |
10% |
6% |
| SO Rate | 17% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
| Steals / Caught | 11 / 9 |
51 / 15 |
13 / 7 |
41 / 18 |
| PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Allowed | 265 |
273 |
251 |
275 |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.91 |
5.06 |
4.56 |
4.91 |
| Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 5.18 |
4.77 |
5.09 |
4.84 |
| RA+ | 106 |
94 |
111 |
99 |
| ERA | 4.65 |
4.58 |
4.37 |
4.65 |
| Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.91 |
4.53 |
4.82 |
4.59 |
| ERA+ | 106 |
99 |
110 |
99 |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 18 |
29 |
15 |
18 |
| Opp. AVG | .271 |
.263 |
.266 |
.260 |
| Opp. OBP | .336 |
.323 |
.341 |
.331 |
| Opp. OBP+ | 98 |
97 |
101 |
99 |
| Opp. SLUG | .412 |
.424 |
.424 |
.426 |
| Opp. SLUG+ | 91 |
102 |
100 |
103 |
| Opp. OPS | .748 |
.747 |
.765 |
.757 |
| Oppo. OPS+ | 90 |
98 |
101 |
102 |
| HR Rate | 2.5% |
3.1% |
2.9% |
3.2% |
| BB Rate | 8% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
| SO Rate | 16% |
18% |
15% |
17% |
| Opp. Steals / Caught | 19 / 14 |
26 / 13 |
25 / 19 |
30 / 12 |
| ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Rotation IP/G | 5.5 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| Rotation ERA | 4.84 |
4.78 |
4.55 |
4.75 |
| Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 5.13 |
4.73 |
5.03 |
4.79 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 106 |
99 |
111 |
101 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.33 |
4.28 |
4.07 |
4.71 |
| Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.57 |
4.21 |
4.49 |
4.27 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 106 |
98 |
110 |
91 |
| PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs per game | 5.09 |
4.48 |
4.47 |
4.57 |
| Expected RS/game | 5.36 |
4.16 |
4.47 |
4.25 |
| "Luck" per game | (0.27) |
0.33 |
(0.00) |
0.33 |
| "Lucky" runs scored | (14) |
18 |
(0) |
18 |
| Runs/G | 4.91 |
5.06 |
4.56 |
4.91 |
| Projected Runs / G | 4.68 |
4.62 |
4.89 |
4.82 |
| Luck per game | 0.23 |
0.43 |
(0.32) |
0.09 |
| "Lucky" runs prevented | (13) |
(23) |
18 |
(5) |
| Total Luck | (27) |
(6) |
18 |
13 |
| STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Actual Wins | 29 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
| Actual Losses | 25 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
| Actual Win% | .537 |
.444 |
.455 |
.429 |
| Pythag Wins | 28.0 |
23.8 |
26.9 |
26.0 |
| Pythag Losses | 26.0 |
30.2 |
28.1 |
30.0 |
| Pythag Win% | .519 |
.440 |
.490 |
.464 |
| Periph Wins | 30.7 |
24.1 |
25.1 |
24.5 |
| Periph Losses | 23.3 |
29.9 |
29.9 |
31.5 |
| Periph Win% | .568 |
.447 |
.456 |
.437 |
| PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.05 |
0.95 |
0.98 |
0.94 |
| Park Factor (Runs) | 1.03 |
0.95 |
1.01 |
0.96 |
Posted by Lucas at 11:29 AM
May 01, 2006
The AL West In April
That the Rangers lead the West after one month is not surprising in and of itself. Most of the Baseball Punditry credited Texas with a competitive team and a dark-horse candidacy for the division title. The surprise emanates from leading despite a 2-7 start, the preseason loss of notional #2 starter Adam Eaton, the (hopefully temporary) self-immolation of closer Francisco Cordero, the failure of notional #4 starter Robinson Tejeda to succeed in AAA, much less the Majors, Brad Wilkerson’s statue-like performance as a leadoff hitter, etc. That list suggests a 10-15 record.
While the Ranger lead stems in part from the lack of any division opponent to catch fire, this team is no fluke. They’ve been slightly lucky, scoring about nine runs over what their peripherals suggest, but they also lead the West in park-adjusted runs scored and allowed.
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.2 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
| OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Games | 25 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
| Runs Scored | 136 |
112 |
110 |
114 |
| Runs Scored/game | 5.44 |
4.48 |
4.58 |
4.38 |
| Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 5.20 |
4.78 |
5.20 |
4.93 |
| RS+ | 105 |
94 |
88 |
89 |
| AVG | .282 |
.259 |
.232 |
.249 |
| OBP | .348 |
.302 |
.316 |
.315 |
| OBP+ | 102 |
91 |
94 |
93 |
| SLUG+ | .459 |
.404 |
.408 |
.389 |
| SLUG+ | 100 |
96 |
94 |
93 |
| Team OPS | .807 |
.706 |
.724 |
.704 |
| Team OPS+ | 102 |
87 |
88 |
87 |
| HR Rate | 3.3% |
2.5% |
3.8% |
2.0% |
| BB Rate | 9% |
5% |
10% |
7% |
| SO Rate | 19% |
14% |
17% |
16% |
| Steals / Caught | 6 / 7 |
21 / 6 |
3 / 5 |
23 / 7 |
| PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Allowed | 123 |
117 |
119 |
126 |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 4.92 |
4.68 |
4.96 |
4.85 |
| Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 5.20 |
4.78 |
5.20 |
4.93 |
| RA+ | 106 |
102 |
105 |
102 |
| ERA | 4.71 |
4.09 |
4.74 |
4.58 |
| Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.95 |
4.55 |
4.95 |
4.70 |
| ERA+ | 105 |
111 |
104 |
103 |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 7 |
17 |
7 |
8 |
| Opp. AVG | .280 |
.246 |
.266 |
.270 |
| Opp. OBP | .337 |
.318 |
.345 |
.348 |
| Opp. OBP+ | 99 |
96 |
102 |
103 |
| Opp. SLUG | .463 |
.399 |
.425 |
.444 |
| Opp. SLUG+ | 101 |
94 |
98 |
107 |
| Opp. OPS | .800 |
.717 |
.770 |
.792 |
| Oppo. OPS+ | 100 |
90 |
100 |
110 |
| HR Rate | 3.3% |
3.1% |
2.7% |
3.3% |
| BB Rate | 7% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| SO Rate | 17% |
19% |
17% |
18% |
| Opp. Steals / Caught | 9 / 8 |
12 / 6 |
10 / 12 |
14 / 4 |
| ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Rotation IP/G | 5.7 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
| Rotation ERA | 4.54 |
4.88 |
5.60 |
4.28 |
| Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 5.14 |
4.72 |
5.14 |
4.87 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 113 |
97 |
92 |
114 |
| Bullpen ERA | 5.01 |
2.65 |
3.03 |
5.17 |
| Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.60 |
4.23 |
4.61 |
4.37 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 92 |
160 |
152 |
84 |
| PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs per game | 5.44 |
4.48 |
4.58 |
4.38 |
| Expected RS/game | 5.36 |
4.16 |
4.37 |
4.26 |
| "Luck" per game | 0.08 |
0.32 |
0.22 |
0.13 |
| "Lucky" runs scored | 2 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
| Runs/G | 4.92 |
4.68 |
4.96 |
4.85 |
| Projected Runs / G | 5.22 |
4.34 |
4.93 |
5.36 |
| Luck per game | (0.30) |
0.34 |
0.03 |
(0.51) |
| "Lucky" runs prevented | 7 |
(8) |
(1) |
13 |
| Total Luck | 9 |
(0) |
4 |
17 |
| STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Actual Wins | 13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
| Actual Losses | 12 |
13 |
12 |
15 |
| Actual Win% | .520 |
.480 |
.500 |
.423 |
| Pythag Wins | 13.8 |
12.0 |
11.1 |
11.7 |
| Pythag Losses | 11.2 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
14.3 |
| Pythag Win% | .550 |
.478 |
.461 |
.450 |
| Periph Wins | 12.8 |
12.0 |
10.6 |
10.1 |
| Periph Losses | 12.2 |
13.0 |
13.4 |
15.9 |
| Periph Win% | .514 |
.478 |
.440 |
.387 |
| PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.05 |
0.95 |
0.99 |
0.95 |
| Park Factor (Runs) | 1.02 |
0.94 |
1.02 |
0.97 |
Posted by Lucas at 06:29 PM
August 12, 2005
Flight of Icarus
AL West on June 1:
TEX 30-20
LAA 30-22 -1.0
SEA 21-30 -9.5
OAK 19-32 -11.5
AL West since June 1:
OAK 47-16
ANA 35-27 -11.5
SEA 28-34 -18.5
TEX 26-38 -21.5
Posted by Lucas at 08:36 AM
August 06, 2005
AL West Stat Roundup
I was out of town most of the week, so here's the statistical roundup for the West through August 5th.
| OFFENSE | TEXAS |
L.A. |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Scored | 589 |
504 |
524 |
476 |
| Average | .270 |
.267 |
.265 |
.259 |
| OBA | .333 |
.321 |
.334 |
.317 |
| SLUG | .474 |
.404 |
.404 |
.396 |
| Steals | 39 |