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May 23, 2007
AL West Statistical Review
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.1 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
| OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Scored/game | 5.04 |
4.59 |
4.53 |
4.39 |
| Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 4.78 |
4.63 |
4.54 |
4.44 |
| RS+ | 106 |
99 |
100 |
99 |
| AVG | .250 |
.272 |
.252 |
.269 |
| AVG+ | 95 |
102 |
98 |
106 |
| OBP | .317 |
.325 |
.337 |
.320 |
| OBP+ | 95 |
97 |
103 |
98 |
| SLUG | .440 |
.399 |
.391 |
.407 |
| SLUG+ | 106 |
98 |
97 |
102 |
| Team OPS | .757 |
.724 |
.728 |
.727 |
| Team OPS+ | 102 |
94 |
100 |
100 |
| HR Rate | 3.8% |
1.9% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
| HRrate+ | 142 |
83 |
98 |
99 |
| BB Rate | 9% |
7% |
11% |
6% |
| BBrate+ | 99 |
80 |
122 |
69 |
| SO Rate | 19% |
13% |
17% |
12% |
| SOrate+ | 86 |
128 |
99 |
125 |
| Steals / Caught | 34 / 8 |
39 / 11 |
18 / 8 |
22 / 9 |
On a macro level, the Texas offense strongly resembles 2004 and 2006: high on homers, low on OBP, unexceptional overall. However, some recent high-scoring games have papered over a horrible April and the fact that Texas has scored five or more runs per game 10% less often than last year (43% vs 53%). Texas may have the best offense in the division, but surely it deserves no praise.
| PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs Allowed/Game | 5.59 |
3.67 |
3.84 |
4.95 |
| Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 4.78 |
4.59 |
4.53 |
4.39 |
| RA+ | 86 |
125 |
118 |
89 |
| ERA | 5.12 |
3.43 |
3.47 |
4.74 |
| Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.34 |
4.21 |
4.13 |
4.03 |
| ERA+ | 85 |
123 |
119 |
85 |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 28 |
15 |
16 |
14 |
| Opp. AVG | .271 |
.248 |
.243 |
.276 |
| Opp. OBP | .354 |
.316 |
.302 |
.342 |
| Opp. OBP+ | 107 |
95 |
93 |
106 |
| Opp. SLUG | .435 |
.383 |
.373 |
.414 |
| Opp. SLUG+ | 106 |
95 |
93 |
105 |
| Opp. OPS | .789 |
.699 |
.675 |
.756 |
| Opp. OPS+ | 114 |
90 |
86 |
111 |
| HR Rate | 2.6% |
2.2% |
1.9% |
1.6% |
| HRrate+ | 88 |
120 |
127 |
147 |
| BB Rate | 9% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
| BBrate+ | 87 |
113 |
120 |
114 |
| SO Rate | 13% |
18% |
16% |
12% |
| SOrate+ | 88 |
136 |
112 |
83 |
| Opp. Steals / Caught | 26 / 14 |
30 / 10 |
34 / 12 |
19 / 7 |
Texas ranks no higher than 11th in the AL in any “+” stat for pitching. Last year, the Rangers surrendered plenty of hits but kept walks and homers to acceptable levels. In 2007, on a team level, Texas has does nothing well from the mound. The Rangers no longer lead the league in unearned runs allowed. Thanks, Kansas City!
| ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Rotation IP/G | 5.3 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
| Rotation ERA | 6.01 |
3.24 |
3.11 |
5.65 |
| Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 4.39 |
4.34 |
4.29 |
4.23 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 73 |
134 |
138 |
75 |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.77 |
3.85 |
4.27 |
3.15 |
| Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.16 |
4.10 |
4.06 |
4.00 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 110 |
107 |
95 |
127 |
In terms of ERA+, Texas has the 5th best bullpen and worst rotation. No bullpen on Earth can mitigate a rotation with a 6.01 ERA.
| PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Runs per game | 5.04 |
4.59 |
4.53 |
4.39 |
| Expected RS/game | 4.87 |
4.53 |
4.63 |
4.47 |
| "Luck" per game | 0.17 |
0.06 |
(0.10) |
(0.08) |
| "Lucky" runs scored | 8 |
3 |
(5) |
(3) |
| Runs/G | 5.59 |
3.67 |
3.84 |
4.95 |
| Projected Runs / G | 5.34 |
4.22 |
3.87 |
4.93 |
| Luck per game | 0.25 |
(0.54) |
(0.03) |
0.02 |
| "Lucky" runs prevented | (11) |
25 |
1 |
(1) |
| Total Luck | (3) |
28 |
(3) |
(4) |
| STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Actual Wins | 18 |
28 |
22 |
20 |
| Actual Losses | 28 |
18 |
23 |
21 |
| Actual Win% | 0.391 |
0.609 |
0.489 |
0.488 |
| Pythag Wins | 20.7 |
28.0 |
26.2 |
18.0 |
| Pythag Losses | 25.3 |
18.0 |
18.8 |
23.0 |
| Pythag Win% | 0.449 |
0.609 |
0.582 |
0.440 |
| Periph Wins | 20.9 |
24.6 |
26.5 |
18.5 |
| Periph Losses | 25.1 |
21.4 |
18.5 |
22.5 |
| Periph Win% | 0.454 |
0.535 |
0.589 |
0.451 |
Texas has been pretty unlucky both in terms of Pythagorean and peripheral wins, which most definitely is not to say that it is a good team in hiding. The bad luck bodes well regarding the probability of avoiding 100 losses, but that’s about it. If the Rangers perform at their peripheral win percentage from here on, they’ll win 71 games. Yippee.
| PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.00 |
1.00 |
0.96 |
0.94 |
| Park Factor (Runs) | 1.01 |
0.98 |
0.96 |
0.94 |
Posted by Lucas at May 23, 2007 12:00 PM