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July 04, 2006

The AL West Through July 3rd

Texas creeps past the halfway point as a nearly perfectly average ballclub: a 42-41 record, a park-adjusted index of 100 in runs scored, 99 in runs allowed, a team OPS+ of 101, and an OPS+ allowed of 100. The AL outscored the NL by a ridiculous 221 runs in interleague play, so an AL team must outscore its opponents by about sixteen runs just to be average.

Only three AL teams have fewer homers than Texas. The Rangers’ love of doubles (on pace for 393) has balanced the lack of long balls and kept their slugging percentage in the league’s midrange. Remarkably, the division’s best slugging team relative to home park is the usually basement-dwelling Seattle Mariners.

Texas and the Yankees are tied for fewest homers allowed in the AL. On the downside, only Baltimore and Kansas City have a lower ERA+ among starting rotations. LA ranks third in ERA but only ninth in runs allowed thanks to 58 unearned runs.

About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.1 runs per game to “break even.? Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.

OFFENSE
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Games
83
82
82
84
Runs Scored
423
371
361
415
Runs Scored/game
5.10
4.52
4.40
4.94
Park-Adj. League RS/Game
5.11
4.77
5.04
4.87
RS+
100
95
87
102
 
AVG
.280
.257
.246
.271
OBP
.344
.318
.327
.327
OBP+
101
95
97
97
SLUG
.448
.398
.394
.428
SLUG+
100
94
92
102
Team OPS
.792
.716
.721
.755
Team OPS+
101
89
88
99
 
HR Rate
2.7%
2.4%
2.8%
2.7%
BB Rate
8%
8%
10%
7%
SO Rate
17%
16%
16%
15%
Steals / Caught
23 / 21
26 / 15
26 / 14
35 / 24

PITCHING
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Runs Allowed
411
397
365
393
Runs Allowed/Game
4.95
4.84
4.45
4.68
Park-Adj. League RA/Game
4.91
4.58
4.85
4.68
RA+
99
95
109
100
 
ERA
4.72
4.17
4.16
4.41
Park-Adj. League ERA/Game
4.60
4.30
4.55
4.39
ERA+
98
103
109
99
Unearned Runs Allowed
28
58
24
26
 
Opp. AVG
.277
.256
.263
.263
Opp. OBP
.342
.318
.338
.331
Opp. OBP+
101
95
100
98
Opp. SLUG
.418
.410
.412
.423
Opp. SLUG+
93
97
96
101
Opp. OPS
.760
.728
.750
.754
Oppo. OPS+
100
98
102
105
 
HR Rate
2.3%
2.8%
2.6%
2.9%
BB Rate
8%
7%
9%
8%
SO Rate
16%
19%
15%
17%
Opp. Steals / Caught
29 / 23
37 / 22
41 / 23
35 / 22

ROTATION / BULLPEN
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Rotation IP/G
5.6
6.1
6.2
6.2
Rotation ERA
5.09
4.25
4.27
4.52
Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA
4.76
4.44
4.70
4.54
Rotation ERA+
94
105
110
100
 
Bullpen ERA
4.06
4.02
3.91
4.15
Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA
4.28
3.99
4.23
4.08
Bullpen ERA+
105
99
108
98

PERIPHERALS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Runs per game
5.10
4.52
4.40
4.94
Expected RS/game
5.17
4.27
4.42
4.69
"Luck" per game
(0.08)
0.25
(0.02)
0.25
"Lucky" runs scored
(6)
21
(2)
21
 
Runs/G
4.95
4.84
4.45
4.68
Projected Runs / G
4.85
4.38
4.75
4.74
Luck per game
0.10
0.46
(0.30)
(0.06)
"Lucky" runs prevented
(8)
(38)
24
5
 
Total Luck
(15)
(17)
23
26

STANDINGS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Actual Wins
42
38
43
42
Actual Losses
41
44
39
42
Actual Win%
0.506
0.463
0.524
0.500
 
Pythag Wins
42.7
38.2
40.5
44.3
Pythag Losses
40.3
43.8
41.5
39.7
Pythag Win%
0.514
0.466
0.494
0.527
 
Periph Wins
44.2
40.0
38.1
41.6
Periph Losses
38.8
42.0
43.9
42.4
Periph Win%
0.532
0.488
0.465
0.495

PARKS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Park Factor (OPS)
1.02
0.95
0.98
0.95
Park Factor (Runs)
1.01
0.94
1.00
0.96

Posted by Lucas at July 4, 2006 08:04 PM