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July 04, 2006
The AL West Through July 3rd
Texas creeps past the halfway point as a nearly perfectly average ballclub: a 42-41 record, a park-adjusted index of 100 in runs scored, 99 in runs allowed, a team OPS+ of 101, and an OPS+ allowed of 100. The AL outscored the NL by a ridiculous 221 runs in interleague play, so an AL team must outscore its opponents by about sixteen runs just to be average.
Only three AL teams have fewer homers than Texas. The Rangers’ love of doubles (on pace for 393) has balanced the lack of long balls and kept their slugging percentage in the league’s midrange. Remarkably, the division’s best slugging team relative to home park is the usually basement-dwelling Seattle Mariners.
Texas and the Yankees are tied for fewest homers allowed in the AL. On the downside, only Baltimore and Kansas City have a lower ERA+ among starting rotations. LA ranks third in ERA but only ninth in runs allowed thanks to 58 unearned runs.
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.1 runs per game to “break even.� Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Games | 83 |
82 |
82 |
84 |
Runs Scored | 423 |
371 |
361 |
415 |
Runs Scored/game | 5.10 |
4.52 |
4.40 |
4.94 |
Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 5.11 |
4.77 |
5.04 |
4.87 |
RS+ | 100 |
95 |
87 |
102 |
AVG | .280 |
.257 |
.246 |
.271 |
OBP | .344 |
.318 |
.327 |
.327 |
OBP+ | 101 |
95 |
97 |
97 |
SLUG | .448 |
.398 |
.394 |
.428 |
SLUG+ | 100 |
94 |
92 |
102 |
Team OPS | .792 |
.716 |
.721 |
.755 |
Team OPS+ | 101 |
89 |
88 |
99 |
HR Rate | 2.7% |
2.4% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
BB Rate | 8% |
8% |
10% |
7% |
SO Rate | 17% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
Steals / Caught | 23 / 21 |
26 / 15 |
26 / 14 |
35 / 24 |
PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Runs Allowed | 411 |
397 |
365 |
393 |
Runs Allowed/Game | 4.95 |
4.84 |
4.45 |
4.68 |
Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 4.91 |
4.58 |
4.85 |
4.68 |
RA+ | 99 |
95 |
109 |
100 |
ERA | 4.72 |
4.17 |
4.16 |
4.41 |
Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.60 |
4.30 |
4.55 |
4.39 |
ERA+ | 98 |
103 |
109 |
99 |
Unearned Runs Allowed | 28 |
58 |
24 |
26 |
Opp. AVG | .277 |
.256 |
.263 |
.263 |
Opp. OBP | .342 |
.318 |
.338 |
.331 |
Opp. OBP+ | 101 |
95 |
100 |
98 |
Opp. SLUG | .418 |
.410 |
.412 |
.423 |
Opp. SLUG+ | 93 |
97 |
96 |
101 |
Opp. OPS | .760 |
.728 |
.750 |
.754 |
Oppo. OPS+ | 100 |
98 |
102 |
105 |
HR Rate | 2.3% |
2.8% |
2.6% |
2.9% |
BB Rate | 8% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
SO Rate | 16% |
19% |
15% |
17% |
Opp. Steals / Caught | 29 / 23 |
37 / 22 |
41 / 23 |
35 / 22 |
ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Rotation IP/G | 5.6 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
Rotation ERA | 5.09 |
4.25 |
4.27 |
4.52 |
Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 4.76 |
4.44 |
4.70 |
4.54 |
Rotation ERA+ | 94 |
105 |
110 |
100 |
Bullpen ERA | 4.06 |
4.02 |
3.91 |
4.15 |
Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.28 |
3.99 |
4.23 |
4.08 |
Bullpen ERA+ | 105 |
99 |
108 |
98 |
PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Runs per game | 5.10 |
4.52 |
4.40 |
4.94 |
Expected RS/game | 5.17 |
4.27 |
4.42 |
4.69 |
"Luck" per game | (0.08) |
0.25 |
(0.02) |
0.25 |
"Lucky" runs scored | (6) |
21 |
(2) |
21 |
Runs/G | 4.95 |
4.84 |
4.45 |
4.68 |
Projected Runs / G | 4.85 |
4.38 |
4.75 |
4.74 |
Luck per game | 0.10 |
0.46 |
(0.30) |
(0.06) |
"Lucky" runs prevented | (8) |
(38) |
24 |
5 |
Total Luck | (15) |
(17) |
23 |
26 |
STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Actual Wins | 42 |
38 |
43 |
42 |
Actual Losses | 41 |
44 |
39 |
42 |
Actual Win% | 0.506 |
0.463 |
0.524 |
0.500 |
Pythag Wins | 42.7 |
38.2 |
40.5 |
44.3 |
Pythag Losses | 40.3 |
43.8 |
41.5 |
39.7 |
Pythag Win% | 0.514 |
0.466 |
0.494 |
0.527 |
Periph Wins | 44.2 |
40.0 |
38.1 |
41.6 |
Periph Losses | 38.8 |
42.0 |
43.9 |
42.4 |
Periph Win% | 0.532 |
0.488 |
0.465 |
0.495 |
PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Park Factor (OPS) | 1.02 |
0.95 |
0.98 |
0.95 |
Park Factor (Runs) | 1.01 |
0.94 |
1.00 |
0.96 |
Posted by Lucas at July 4, 2006 08:04 PM