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March 08, 2013

Triple-A to the Woodlands? Maybe.

News broke Thursday that the Astros are considering The Woodlands as their new Triple-A home. I'd half-expected the Astros to commandeer the Atlantic League's recent expansion to Sugar Land a few years ago, but at the time they opposed an affiliated team in their backyard. What caught my eye this time was the rather blasé discussion of moving a franchise to the Houston area. The story has been edited since first appearing yesterday afternoon, but it practically implied that he could move a team there unilaterally.

For example: "The Astros are considering purchasing several of their minor league teams in an effort to improve revenue streams." Crane himself expounded on his affiliates including the Nolan Ryan-owned Corpus Christi Hooks: "We don’t own those franchises, so we’d have to step up and buy them and move them around and we’re looking at all those options. Because we feel if we control those options, it’s better for our partners and better for our fans." Really? I know his statements are more talking out loud, not executive plans, but one doesn't simply "step up" and buy a franchise like buying a car. He needs a seller, and there aren't many, perhaps not a single one.

Witness also this quote from Crane, now expunged from the Chronicle but still appearing at the end of this story in The Oklahoman: "The [Oklahoma City] Triple-A club is owned by a private equity company -- that doesn't make any sense." I hope he meant "that doesn't make any sense with what I'm trying to accomplish with the Astros," rather than "that doesn't make any sense, period." The RedHawks belong to Mandalay Sports, also owners of the hugely successful Texas-affiliated Frisco Roughriders and the low-A Dayton Dragons, who have produced 913 consecutive sellouts across 13 seasons. Mandalay seems to know what it's doing. Indeed, in response to the story, the Redhawks have assured fans they're not going anywhere (here, here, here).

Which AAA franchise might Crane purchase and move to The Woodlands? Here's the Pacific Coast League ranked by age of stadium and including distance to the parent club (if under 400 miles) and number of times in the last four years the team has ranked in the bottom four in average attendance:

Team
Stadium Built
Bottom Four Attendance
Miles to Parent
El Paso
2014
3
<400
Omaha
2011
-
<200
Reno
2009
-
-
Abq
2003
-
-
Round Rock
2000
-
<200
Memphis
2000
-
<400
Sacto
2000
-
<200
Okla City
1998
-
-
Fresno
1998
-
<200
New Orleans
1997
-
-
SLC
1994
-
-
Iowa
1992
-
<400
Colo Springs
1988
3
<200
Vegas
1983
4
-
Nashville
1978
4
-
Tacoma
1960
2
<200

Crane's problem is that the league has already undergone major upgrades in locations and physical plants. El Paso will be the permanent home to the interim Tucson Padres, who departed Portland when a stadium wasn't forthcoming. Nine of the PCL's franchises play in stadiums built in the last fifteen years, and five of those also involved relocations (El Paso, Reno, Albuquerque, Round Rock, Fresno). Colorado Springs doesn't draw well but is optimally located, as is Tacoma.

The two teams that stand out are the Las Vegas 51s and Nashville Sounds. Vegas has been the red-headed stepchild of the league for a while; none of the west coast teams wants to play there, so the franchise has awkwardly bedded down with Toronto and now the Mets. However, the 51s recently signed a 10-year lease extension on the city-owned park, so they couldn't be extricated easily.

Nashville is the one legitimate target. The Sounds' stadium isn't terribly old but lacks the revenue-generating amenities of modern facilities. The current and prior ownership have sought a new home within Nashville for a decade to no avail. As best as I can tell, the potential replacement venue still lacks a site and financing.

Moving an International League team to the Houston area is slightly trickier because it would probably require a concurrent switch to the PCL, but Nashville could easily recalibrate the leagues by moving to the IL. Here's the International League roster:

Team
Stadium Built
Bottom Four Attendance
Miles to Parent
Charlotte
2014
4
-
SWB
2013
3
<200
Columbus
2009
-
<200
Gwinnett
2009
4
<200
Lehigh
2008
-
<200
Toledo
2002
-
<200
Louisville
2000
-
<200
Syracuse
1997
2
<400
Rochester
1997
-
-
Indy
1996
-
<400
Durham
1995
-
-
Norfolk
1993
3
<200
Buffalo
1988
-
<200
Pawtucket
1970
-
<200

As with the PCL, candidates for relocation are lacking. Only two of the fourteen teams play in a stadium over twenty years of age. Of those, Buffalo has a solid track record and is owned by a Buffalo native, and the Paw Sox aren't going anywhere. As for teams that draw poorly, Charlotte actually plays across the border near Rock Hill, South Carolina. They should attract more fans in Charlotte proper, as should the renovated stadium between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton. In terms of attendance and return on investment, Gwinnett has been a dismal failure for the county, which rushed into a publicly financed deal. Still, they certainly aren't going anywhere and aren't going to be sold by their owner, the Atlanta Braves. Norfolk doesn't draw especially well, but I've never heard any rumors about a move or sale. In sum, I don't see a obvious suitor in the International League.

Of course, Crane isn't prohibited from relocating a team already in a relatively new stadium, if the owners are willing and the cost of breaking a lease isn't too onerous. Still, I think this exercise makes clear that moving a team to The Woodlands won't be easy.


Sleater-Kinney, "Not What You Want," from Dig Me Out, 1997

Posted by Lucas at March 8, 2013 02:09 PM