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July 05, 2005
Texas At The Midway Point, Part 1
Texas versus the AL West
| STANDINGS | Texas |
LA |
Oakland |
Seattle |
| Actual Wins | 43 |
50 |
40 |
35 |
| Actual Won-Loss Pct. | .531 |
.610 |
.494 |
.432 |
| "Pythagorean Wins" | 45.2 |
50.4 |
41.5 |
37.6 |
| "Pythagorean" Won-Loss Pct. | .558 |
.615 |
.512 |
.464 |
| Wins based on peripheral stats | 44.1 |
45.5 |
42.7 |
35.2 |
| Won-Loss Pct. based on peripheral stats | .545 |
.555 |
.527 |
.435 |
Division-leading Los Angeles set a franchise record with 51 wins after 81 games. As is often the case, they've won more games than their peripherals would suggest. Oakland has risen from the dead to reach the outskirts of the division race. Texas is playing better than the 2004 squad in some respects, while Seattle isn't quite bad enough to be interesting.
| OFFENSE | Texas |
LA |
Oakland |
Seattle |
| Runs scored per game | 5.43 |
4.85 |
4.51 |
4.16 |
| Expected runs scored per game based on peripherals | 5.31 |
4.64 |
4.40 |
4.07 |
| "Lucky" runs (positive = lucky) | 10 |
18 |
8 |
7 |
| - | - |
- |
- |
- |
| Batting Average | .270 |
.275 |
.260 |
.254 |
| On-Base Percentage | .331 |
.326 |
.334 |
.313 |
| Slugging Percentage | .473 |
.419 |
.385 |
.384 |
| Net steals per game | 0.12 |
0.15 |
(0.11) |
0.07 |
| - | - |
- |
- |
- |
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.042 |
.959 |
1.023 |
.960 |
| OPS+ | 108 |
102 |
90 |
89 |
Unlike last year's park-driven effort, the 2005 Ranger offense really is good and easily the class of the division. Anaheim batted .308 in June to build a seven-game lead, but no other team relies so heavily on base hits. If they bat .260 and tally a few fewer hits with runners on base, they'll suffer greatly. One can hope. Oakland was sporting an OPS+ of about 80 six weeks ago; a solid June has propelled them from historic wretchedness to ordinary wretchedness. Even considering Safeco-diminished expectations, the Mariners don't reach base or hit or power.
| PITCHING / DEFENSE | Texas |
LA |
Oakland |
Seattle |
| Runs allowed per game | 4.84 |
3.84 |
4.40 |
4.47 |
| Expected runs allowed per game based on peripherals | 4.85 |
4.15 |
4.17 |
4.64 |
| "Lucky" runs (positive = lucky) | 1 |
25 |
18 |
(14) |
| - | - |
- |
- |
- |
| Opp. Batting Average | .277 |
.251 |
.241 |
.259 |
| Opp. On-Base Percentage | .339 |
.312 |
.313 |
.331 |
| Opp. Slugging Percentage | .421 |
.397 |
.383 |
.406 |
| Net steals allowed per game | (0.04) |
(0.11) |
0.43 |
0.19 |
| - | - |
- |
- |
- |
| Opponent OPS+ | 98 |
92 |
83 |
100 |
| - | - |
- |
- |
- |
| Park Factor (runs) | 1.007 |
.934 |
1.092 |
.983 |
| RA+ | 96 |
112 |
115 |
101 |
| ERA+ | 93 |
112 |
120 |
98 |
| - | - |
- |
- |
- |
| Rotation innings per game | 5.79 |
6.23 |
6.07 |
5.84 |
| Rotation ERA | 4.53 |
3.64 |
4.02 |
4.98 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 96 |
110 |
117 |
85 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.86 |
3.38 |
3.64 |
3.08 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 89 |
119 |
129 |
137 |
| - | - |
- |
- |
- |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 21 |
21 |
46 |
21 |
Yes, they've been lucky, but Los Angeles features a solid rotation and superior bullpen. I fear that their offense must decline sharply for Texas to catch them. Conversely, Texas could catch up with improvement from the bullpen and something to quiet the giant sucking sounds coming from center and right field. Oakland has both the best and worst defense in the West. They lead in Defesive Efficiency but have the lowest fielding percentage. Also, they have allowed a division-worst 31 runners to reach via error and caught only 18% of would-be basestealers.
Coming soon: an explanation of how I calculate "expected runs" and "luck." You'll just have to take my word for the moment.
Posted by Lucas at July 5, 2005 05:09 PM