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July 05, 2005
Texas At The Midway Point, Part 2
2005 versus 2004
| STANDINGS | 2005 |
2004 |
| Actual Wins | 43 |
89 |
| Actual Won-Loss Pct. | .531 |
.549 |
| "Pythagorean Wins" | 45.2 |
87.5 |
| "Pythagorean" Won-Loss Pct. | .558 |
.540 |
| Wins based on peripheral stats | 44.1 |
81.3 |
| Won-Loss Pct. based on peripheral stats | .545 |
.502 |
Texas is only three games off their 46-35 record from one year ago. I have to confess the margin feels larger, perhaps because last year's success was so unexpected and 2005's June was a trainwreck. Texas did everything "right" in 2004, finishing sixteen games over .500 despite middling peripherals. This year, their record reflects a pretty good squad but none of last year's good luck.
| OFFENSE | 2005 |
2004 |
| Runs scored per game | 5.43 |
5.31 |
| Expected runs scored per game based on peripherals | 5.31 |
5.06 |
| "Lucky" runs (positive = lucky) | 10 |
41 |
| - | - |
- |
| Batting Average | .270 |
.266 |
| On-Base Percentage | .331 |
.329 |
| Slugging Percentage | .473 |
.457 |
| Net steals per game | 0.12 |
(0.02) |
| - | - |
|
| Park Factor (OPS) | 1.042 |
1.056 |
| OPS+ | 108 |
98 |
In 2004, the allegedly powerful Ranger offense was largely a mirage based on park effects. They slugged with abandon but didn't reach base enough, finishing .011 below the park-adjusted league average for OBP. (Incidentally, I despise complaints like "Texas is over-reliant on the home run," as if the team could somehow hit too many home runs. Perhaps the issue is semantic, but such statements place the blame on what Texas does well instead of where they're lacking. Instead, say "Texas doesn't hit enough for average or draw enough walks.") So far in 2005, run-scoring is down about one-quarter run per game league-wide, and The Ballpark has played less hitter-friendly than during 2002-2004. Thus, Texas's seemingly insignificant increase of 0.12 runs per game is really quite an accomplishment.
| PITCHING / DEFENSE | 2005 |
2004 |
| Runs allowed per game | 4.84 |
4.90 |
| Expected runs allowed per game based on peripherals | 4.85 |
5.04 |
| "Lucky" runs (positive = lucky) | 1 |
23 |
| - | - |
- |
| Opp. Batting Average | .277 |
.274 |
| Opp. On-Base Percentage | .339 |
.344 |
| Opp. Slugging Percentage | .421 |
.432 |
| Net steals allowed per game | (0.04) |
(0.04) |
| - | - |
- |
| Opponent OPS+ | 98 |
97 |
| - | - |
- |
| Park Factor (runs) | 1.007 |
1.100 |
| RA+ | 96 |
112 |
| ERA+ | 93 |
112 |
| - | - |
- |
| Rotation innings per game | 5.79 |
5.56 |
| Rotation ERA | 4.53 |
5.16 |
| Rotation ERA+ | 96 |
99 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.86 |
3.46 |
| Bullpen ERA+ | 89 |
147 |
| - | - |
- |
| Unearned Runs Allowed | 21 |
70 |
Likewise, because of a friendlier home park and lower scoring nation-wide, allowing 0.06 fewer runs per game is not cause for celebration. The Ballpark had a park-adjusted league-average ERA of over 5.00 in 2004. This year so far, it's only 4.34. Depressingly, the rotation on the whole has performed no better than the seventeen-man 2004 version. Texas has Kenny Rogers, Chris Young, and a month of Ricardo Rodriguez. The rest: a beehive swarming with earned runs. Worse still, the bullpen that made Texas a winner in 2004 has collapsed in injury and ineffectiveness. The retooled crew has performed much better of late, but Texas can't hope to fully overcome the loss of Frank Francisco and Carlos Almanzar.
Inconceivable though it may seem, the 2004 pitching staff offered the fourth-best performance in the American League and also the fourth-best in Ranger history in terms of ERA+. I swear it is true. In 2005, they're not quite average.
Posted by Lucas at July 5, 2005 06:04 PM