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July 24, 2006
The Mighty West
Let no man (or woman) impugn the dignity of the AL West, the so-called weakest of the three divisions. Since the All-Star break, all but Los Angeles have played a merciless schedule, and all have surpassed expectations:
| Team | Opponents | Opp. Win% |
Expected Record |
Actual Wins |
| Oakland | 4 @ BOS 3 @ BAL 3 @ DET |
.647 |
3.5-6.5 |
6-4 |
| Texas | 4 @ BAL 3 @ TOR 1 @ BOS 3 @ CHW |
.624 |
4.4-5.6 |
6-5 |
| Los Angeles | 3 vs TAM 3 vs CLE 4 @ KAN |
.414 |
5.7-4.3 |
7-3 |
| Seattle | 3 @ TOR 3 @ NYY 3 vs BOS |
.589 |
3.5-5.5 |
4-5 |
(Opp. Win% is the weighted average of the opponents' winning percentages at home or on the road, as applicable. Expected Record estimated with good old Log5.)
LA's cakewalk stumbles to a halt on Wednesday after they complete yet another series against Tampa Bay. The Angels had the easiest post-break schedule but have already burned through it. Now, they have the toughest remaining schedule:
| Team | Home |
Road |
vs Big Six |
vs Flab Four |
vs Division |
Opp. Win% |
| Los Angeles | 33 |
31 |
23 |
11 |
30 |
.529 |
| Seattle | 31 |
34 |
19 |
17 |
29 |
.516 |
| Texas | 31 |
32 |
12 |
16 |
35 |
.504 |
| Oakland | 35 |
29 |
19 |
17 |
28 |
.500 |
(Big Six = Boston, New York, Toronto, Detroit, Chicago Minnesota; Flab Four = Kansas City, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore)
Notice how few games Texas has against the toughest opponents relative to their rivals. The Rangers host the Yankees this week, travel to Minnesota for three, and face Detroit six more times, all in Detroit. Gone are Boston, Chicago and Toronto, against whom Texas finished a keen 13-11.
Posted by Lucas at July 24, 2006 01:14 AM