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June 04, 2005
AL West Statistical Review
(Statistics are through May 31. Yeah, I'm late.)
Standings
STANDINGS | Texas | Los Angeles | Oakland | Seattle |
Actual Won-Loss Pct. | .600 | .577 | .373 | .412 |
"Pythagorean" Won-Loss Pct. | .608 | .560 | .369 | .444 |
Won-Loss Pct. based on peripherals | .585 | .449 | .384 | .431 |
Texas would lead the division by six games if the standings were based on peripheral statistics. Los Angeles hitters have an OPS of .692 and their pitchers have allowed an OPS of .728, yet the Angels have outscored their opponents by 26 runs and are virtually tied with Texas.
Offense
OFFENSE | Texas | Los Angeles | Oakland | Seattle |
Runs scored per game | 5.60 | 4.38 | 3.94 | 4.25 |
Expected runs scored per game | 5.31 | 3.93 | 3.76 | 4.01 |
"Lucky" runs (positive = lucky) | 15 | 23 | 9 | 12 |
Batting Average | .272 | .252 | .243 | .250 |
On-Base Percentage | .333 | .303 | .320 | .312 |
Slugging Percentage | .473 | .389 | .345 | .381 |
Net steals per game | 0.08 | 0.12 | (0.06) | 0.10 |
Park Factor (hitting) | 1.021 | .986 | 1.019 | .985 |
OPS+ | 112 | 89 | 77 | 90 |
Texas is the class of the division. Put another way, the rest of the division is an embarrassment. LA has drawn far fewer walks than any team in the league. Their average-driven strategy works fine when they hit .280; when they hit .250, they have little to offer. Seattle has to be sorely disappointed in their minimal improvement from 2004 given the additions of Beltre and Sexson. Beltre's struggles and gaping holes at short and catcher have kept them down. Oakland's 77 OPS+ is a function of everyone hitting terribly simultaneously. That said, they won't be a good team at the plate even if Eric Chavez and Jason Kendall wake up. Note: "Net steals per game" = ( steals - caught stealing*2 ) / games played.
Pitching
PITCHING / DEFENSE | Texas | Los Angeles | Oakland | Seattle |
Runs allowed per game | 4.50 | 3.88 | 5.16 | 4.76 |
Expected runs allowed per game | 4.47 | 4.36 | 4.76 | 4.61 |
"Lucky" runs (positive = lucky) | (2) | 25 | (20) | (8) |
Opp. Batting Average | .268 | .260 | .254 | .259 |
Opp. On-Base Percentage | .332 | .322 | .333 | .327 |
Opp. Slugging Percentage | .400 | .406 | .404 | .412 |
Net steals allowed per game | (0.18) | (0.23) | 0.69 | 0.18 |
Park Factor (pitching) | .958 | .983 | 1.111 | 1.030 |
ERA+ | 95 | 118 | 104 | 96 |
Rotation innings per game | 6.11 | 6.29 | 5.74 | 5.84 |
Rotation ERA | 3.97 | 3.80 | 4.86 | 5.21 |
Bullpen ERA | 5.02 | 3.03 | 4.06 | 3.16 |
Los Angeles has had the best pitching in the division, though again, they've also had the best luck. A solid rotation and tremendous top three in the bullpen should keep them in contention no matter what the offense does. Texas amazingly has surrendered the lowest slugging percentage in the division. Oakland hasn't pitched terribly in the aggregate, but bullpen acquisitions Juan Cruz and Kiko Calero have cratered, and closer Octavio Dotel won't even be trade bait after electing to have elbow surgery. Seattle had a terrible rotation in 2004 and has done nothing to improve it.
Posted by Lucas at June 4, 2005 02:14 PM