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June 04, 2005

AL West Statistical Review

(Statistics are through May 31. Yeah, I'm late.)

Standings

STANDINGS
Texas
Los Angeles
Oakland
Seattle
Actual Won-Loss Pct.
.600
.577
.373
.412
"Pythagorean" Won-Loss Pct.
.608
.560
.369
.444
Won-Loss Pct. based on peripherals
.585
.449
.384
.431

Texas would lead the division by six games if the standings were based on peripheral statistics. Los Angeles hitters have an OPS of .692 and their pitchers have allowed an OPS of .728, yet the Angels have outscored their opponents by 26 runs and are virtually tied with Texas.

Offense

OFFENSE
Texas
Los Angeles
Oakland
Seattle
Runs scored per game
5.60
4.38
3.94
4.25
Expected runs scored per game
5.31
3.93
3.76
4.01
"Lucky" runs (positive = lucky)
15
23
9
12
 
Batting Average
.272
.252
.243
.250
On-Base Percentage
.333
.303
.320
.312
Slugging Percentage
.473
.389
.345
.381
Net steals per game
0.08
0.12
(0.06)
0.10
 
Park Factor (hitting)
1.021
.986
1.019
.985
OPS+
112
89
77
90

Texas is the class of the division. Put another way, the rest of the division is an embarrassment. LA has drawn far fewer walks than any team in the league. Their average-driven strategy works fine when they hit .280; when they hit .250, they have little to offer. Seattle has to be sorely disappointed in their minimal improvement from 2004 given the additions of Beltre and Sexson. Beltre's struggles and gaping holes at short and catcher have kept them down. Oakland's 77 OPS+ is a function of everyone hitting terribly simultaneously. That said, they won't be a good team at the plate even if Eric Chavez and Jason Kendall wake up. Note: "Net steals per game" = ( steals - caught stealing*2 ) / games played.

Pitching

PITCHING / DEFENSE
Texas
Los Angeles
Oakland
Seattle
Runs allowed per game
4.50
3.88
5.16
4.76
Expected runs allowed per game
4.47
4.36
4.76
4.61
"Lucky" runs (positive = lucky)
(2)
25
(20)
(8)
 
Opp. Batting Average
.268
.260
.254
.259
Opp. On-Base Percentage
.332
.322
.333
.327
Opp. Slugging Percentage
.400
.406
.404
.412
Net steals allowed per game
(0.18)
(0.23)
0.69
0.18
 
Park Factor (pitching)
.958
.983
1.111
1.030
ERA+
95
118
104
96
 
Rotation innings per game
6.11
6.29
5.74
5.84
Rotation ERA
3.97
3.80
4.86
5.21
Bullpen ERA
5.02
3.03
4.06
3.16

Los Angeles has had the best pitching in the division, though again, they've also had the best luck. A solid rotation and tremendous top three in the bullpen should keep them in contention no matter what the offense does. Texas amazingly has surrendered the lowest slugging percentage in the division. Oakland hasn't pitched terribly in the aggregate, but bullpen acquisitions Juan Cruz and Kiko Calero have cratered, and closer Octavio Dotel won't even be trade bait after electing to have elbow surgery. Seattle had a terrible rotation in 2004 and has done nothing to improve it.

Posted by Lucas at June 4, 2005 02:14 PM