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May 01, 2006

The AL West In April

That the Rangers lead the West after one month is not surprising in and of itself. Most of the Baseball Punditry credited Texas with a competitive team and a dark-horse candidacy for the division title. The surprise emanates from leading despite a 2-7 start, the preseason loss of notional #2 starter Adam Eaton, the (hopefully temporary) self-immolation of closer Francisco Cordero, the failure of notional #4 starter Robinson Tejeda to succeed in AAA, much less the Majors, Brad Wilkerson’s statue-like performance as a leadoff hitter, etc. That list suggests a 10-15 record.

While the Ranger lead stems in part from the lack of any division opponent to catch fire, this team is no fluke. They’ve been slightly lucky, scoring about nine runs over what their peripherals suggest, but they also lead the West in park-adjusted runs scored and allowed.

About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.2 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.

OFFENSE
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Games
25
25
24
26
Runs Scored
136
112
110
114
Runs Scored/game
5.44
4.48
4.58
4.38
Park-Adj. League RS/Game
5.20
4.78
5.20
4.93
RS+
105
94
88
89
 
AVG
.282
.259
.232
.249
OBP
.348
.302
.316
.315
OBP+
102
91
94
93
SLUG+
.459
.404
.408
.389
SLUG+
100
96
94
93
Team OPS
.807
.706
.724
.704
Team OPS+
102
87
88
87
 
HR Rate
3.3%
2.5%
3.8%
2.0%
BB Rate
9%
5%
10%
7%
SO Rate
19%
14%
17%
16%
Steals / Caught
6 / 7
21 / 6
3 / 5
23 / 7

PITCHING
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Runs Allowed
123
117
119
126
Runs Allowed/Game
4.92
4.68
4.96
4.85
Park-Adj. League RA/Game
5.20
4.78
5.20
4.93
RA+
106
102
105
102
 
ERA
4.71
4.09
4.74
4.58
Park-Adj. League ERA/Game
4.95
4.55
4.95
4.70
ERA+
105
111
104
103
Unearned Runs Allowed
7
17
7
8
 
Opp. AVG
.280
.246
.266
.270
Opp. OBP
.337
.318
.345
.348
Opp. OBP+
99
96
102
103
Opp. SLUG
.463
.399
.425
.444
Opp. SLUG+
101
94
98
107
Opp. OPS
.800
.717
.770
.792
Oppo. OPS+
100
90
100
110
 
HR Rate
3.3%
3.1%
2.7%
3.3%
BB Rate
7%
9%
9%
9%
SO Rate
17%
19%
17%
18%
Opp. Steals / Caught
9 / 8
12 / 6
10 / 12
14 / 4

ROTATION / BULLPEN
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Rotation IP/G
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.9
Rotation ERA
4.54
4.88
5.60
4.28
Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA
5.14
4.72
5.14
4.87
Rotation ERA+
113
97
92
114
 
Bullpen ERA
5.01
2.65
3.03
5.17
Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA
4.60
4.23
4.61
4.37
Bullpen ERA+
92
160
152
84

PERIPHERALS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Runs per game
5.44
4.48
4.58
4.38
Expected RS/game
5.36
4.16
4.37
4.26
"Luck" per game
0.08
0.32
0.22
0.13
"Lucky" runs scored
2
8
5
3
 
Runs/G
4.92
4.68
4.96
4.85
Projected Runs / G
5.22
4.34
4.93
5.36
Luck per game
(0.30)
0.34
0.03
(0.51)
"Lucky" runs prevented
7
(8)
(1)
13
 
Total Luck
9
(0)
4
17

STANDINGS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Actual Wins
13
12
12
11
Actual Losses
12
13
12
15
Actual Win%
.520
.480
.500
.423
 
Pythag Wins
13.8
12.0
11.1
11.7
Pythag Losses
11.2
13.0
12.9
14.3
Pythag Win%
.550
.478
.461
.450
 
Periph Wins
12.8
12.0
10.6
10.1
Periph Losses
12.2
13.0
13.4
15.9
Periph Win%
.514
.478
.440
.387

PARKS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Park Factor (OPS)
1.05
0.95
0.99
0.95
Park Factor (Runs)
1.02
0.94
1.02
0.97

Posted by Lucas at May 1, 2006 06:29 PM