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May 01, 2006
The AL West In April
That the Rangers lead the West after one month is not surprising in and of itself. Most of the Baseball Punditry credited Texas with a competitive team and a dark-horse candidacy for the division title. The surprise emanates from leading despite a 2-7 start, the preseason loss of notional #2 starter Adam Eaton, the (hopefully temporary) self-immolation of closer Francisco Cordero, the failure of notional #4 starter Robinson Tejeda to succeed in AAA, much less the Majors, Brad Wilkerson’s statue-like performance as a leadoff hitter, etc. That list suggests a 10-15 record.
While the Ranger lead stems in part from the lack of any division opponent to catch fire, this team is no fluke. They’ve been slightly lucky, scoring about nine runs over what their peripherals suggest, but they also lead the West in park-adjusted runs scored and allowed.
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.2 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Games | 25 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
Runs Scored | 136 |
112 |
110 |
114 |
Runs Scored/game | 5.44 |
4.48 |
4.58 |
4.38 |
Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 5.20 |
4.78 |
5.20 |
4.93 |
RS+ | 105 |
94 |
88 |
89 |
AVG | .282 |
.259 |
.232 |
.249 |
OBP | .348 |
.302 |
.316 |
.315 |
OBP+ | 102 |
91 |
94 |
93 |
SLUG+ | .459 |
.404 |
.408 |
.389 |
SLUG+ | 100 |
96 |
94 |
93 |
Team OPS | .807 |
.706 |
.724 |
.704 |
Team OPS+ | 102 |
87 |
88 |
87 |
HR Rate | 3.3% |
2.5% |
3.8% |
2.0% |
BB Rate | 9% |
5% |
10% |
7% |
SO Rate | 19% |
14% |
17% |
16% |
Steals / Caught | 6 / 7 |
21 / 6 |
3 / 5 |
23 / 7 |
PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Runs Allowed | 123 |
117 |
119 |
126 |
Runs Allowed/Game | 4.92 |
4.68 |
4.96 |
4.85 |
Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 5.20 |
4.78 |
5.20 |
4.93 |
RA+ | 106 |
102 |
105 |
102 |
ERA | 4.71 |
4.09 |
4.74 |
4.58 |
Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.95 |
4.55 |
4.95 |
4.70 |
ERA+ | 105 |
111 |
104 |
103 |
Unearned Runs Allowed | 7 |
17 |
7 |
8 |
Opp. AVG | .280 |
.246 |
.266 |
.270 |
Opp. OBP | .337 |
.318 |
.345 |
.348 |
Opp. OBP+ | 99 |
96 |
102 |
103 |
Opp. SLUG | .463 |
.399 |
.425 |
.444 |
Opp. SLUG+ | 101 |
94 |
98 |
107 |
Opp. OPS | .800 |
.717 |
.770 |
.792 |
Oppo. OPS+ | 100 |
90 |
100 |
110 |
HR Rate | 3.3% |
3.1% |
2.7% |
3.3% |
BB Rate | 7% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
SO Rate | 17% |
19% |
17% |
18% |
Opp. Steals / Caught | 9 / 8 |
12 / 6 |
10 / 12 |
14 / 4 |
ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Rotation IP/G | 5.7 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
Rotation ERA | 4.54 |
4.88 |
5.60 |
4.28 |
Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 5.14 |
4.72 |
5.14 |
4.87 |
Rotation ERA+ | 113 |
97 |
92 |
114 |
Bullpen ERA | 5.01 |
2.65 |
3.03 |
5.17 |
Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.60 |
4.23 |
4.61 |
4.37 |
Bullpen ERA+ | 92 |
160 |
152 |
84 |
PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Runs per game | 5.44 |
4.48 |
4.58 |
4.38 |
Expected RS/game | 5.36 |
4.16 |
4.37 |
4.26 |
"Luck" per game | 0.08 |
0.32 |
0.22 |
0.13 |
"Lucky" runs scored | 2 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
Runs/G | 4.92 |
4.68 |
4.96 |
4.85 |
Projected Runs / G | 5.22 |
4.34 |
4.93 |
5.36 |
Luck per game | (0.30) |
0.34 |
0.03 |
(0.51) |
"Lucky" runs prevented | 7 |
(8) |
(1) |
13 |
Total Luck | 9 |
(0) |
4 |
17 |
STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Actual Wins | 13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
Actual Losses | 12 |
13 |
12 |
15 |
Actual Win% | .520 |
.480 |
.500 |
.423 |
Pythag Wins | 13.8 |
12.0 |
11.1 |
11.7 |
Pythag Losses | 11.2 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
14.3 |
Pythag Win% | .550 |
.478 |
.461 |
.450 |
Periph Wins | 12.8 |
12.0 |
10.6 |
10.1 |
Periph Losses | 12.2 |
13.0 |
13.4 |
15.9 |
Periph Win% | .514 |
.478 |
.440 |
.387 |
PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Park Factor (OPS) | 1.05 |
0.95 |
0.99 |
0.95 |
Park Factor (Runs) | 1.02 |
0.94 |
1.02 |
0.97 |
Posted by Lucas at May 1, 2006 06:29 PM