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June 03, 2006
The AL West Through May (Well, Through June 2)
The Rangers lead the division as they did after April. Recent issues with run scoring (4.25 runs per game over the last twelve) have pulled them down to seventh in the AL in runs scored, below average once accounting for park. Texas does have an OPS+ of 103, so they've scored fewer runs than their line of .278/.348/.457 would suggest. Observe Seattle's hacktastic walk rate of 6%; the Mariners trail even the pitiful Royals in bases on balls.
Texas has an ERA+ of 106. As in 2004, the Rangers are winning more with pitching and defense than hitting. The key is a remarkably stingy 51 homers allowed, nine fewer than any West opponent and third fewest in the league. Texas trails only the Yankees in park-adjusted slugging percentage allowed. The rotation has held strong while the bullpen has regained respectability after a rough start.
About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.2 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.
OFFENSE | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Games | 54 |
54 |
55 |
56 |
Runs Scored | 275 |
242 |
246 |
256 |
Runs Scored/game | 5.09 |
4.48 |
4.47 |
4.57 |
Park-Adj. League RS/Game | 5.14 |
4.74 |
5.05 |
4.81 |
RS+ | 99 |
95 |
89 |
95 |
AVG | .278 |
.252 |
.243 |
.264 |
OBP | .348 |
.310 |
.324 |
.318 |
OBP+ | 102 |
93 |
96 |
95 |
SLUG+ | .457 |
.391 |
.404 |
.395 |
SLUG+ | 101 |
94 |
95 |
96 |
Team OPS | .805 |
.701 |
.728 |
.713 |
Team OPS+ | 103 |
87 |
91 |
91 |
HR Rate | 3.2% |
2.4% |
3.3% |
2.1% |
BB Rate | 9% |
7% |
10% |
6% |
SO Rate | 17% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
Steals / Caught | 11 / 9 |
51 / 15 |
13 / 7 |
41 / 18 |
PITCHING | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Runs Allowed | 265 |
273 |
251 |
275 |
Runs Allowed/Game | 4.91 |
5.06 |
4.56 |
4.91 |
Park-Adj. League RA/Game | 5.18 |
4.77 |
5.09 |
4.84 |
RA+ | 106 |
94 |
111 |
99 |
ERA | 4.65 |
4.58 |
4.37 |
4.65 |
Park-Adj. League ERA/Game | 4.91 |
4.53 |
4.82 |
4.59 |
ERA+ | 106 |
99 |
110 |
99 |
Unearned Runs Allowed | 18 |
29 |
15 |
18 |
Opp. AVG | .271 |
.263 |
.266 |
.260 |
Opp. OBP | .336 |
.323 |
.341 |
.331 |
Opp. OBP+ | 98 |
97 |
101 |
99 |
Opp. SLUG | .412 |
.424 |
.424 |
.426 |
Opp. SLUG+ | 91 |
102 |
100 |
103 |
Opp. OPS | .748 |
.747 |
.765 |
.757 |
Oppo. OPS+ | 90 |
98 |
101 |
102 |
HR Rate | 2.5% |
3.1% |
2.9% |
3.2% |
BB Rate | 8% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
SO Rate | 16% |
18% |
15% |
17% |
Opp. Steals / Caught | 19 / 14 |
26 / 13 |
25 / 19 |
30 / 12 |
ROTATION / BULLPEN | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Rotation IP/G | 5.5 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
Rotation ERA | 4.84 |
4.78 |
4.55 |
4.75 |
Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA | 5.13 |
4.73 |
5.03 |
4.79 |
Rotation ERA+ | 106 |
99 |
111 |
101 |
Bullpen ERA | 4.33 |
4.28 |
4.07 |
4.71 |
Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA | 4.57 |
4.21 |
4.49 |
4.27 |
Bullpen ERA+ | 106 |
98 |
110 |
91 |
PERIPHERALS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Runs per game | 5.09 |
4.48 |
4.47 |
4.57 |
Expected RS/game | 5.36 |
4.16 |
4.47 |
4.25 |
"Luck" per game | (0.27) |
0.33 |
(0.00) |
0.33 |
"Lucky" runs scored | (14) |
18 |
(0) |
18 |
Runs/G | 4.91 |
5.06 |
4.56 |
4.91 |
Projected Runs / G | 4.68 |
4.62 |
4.89 |
4.82 |
Luck per game | 0.23 |
0.43 |
(0.32) |
0.09 |
"Lucky" runs prevented | (13) |
(23) |
18 |
(5) |
Total Luck | (27) |
(6) |
18 |
13 |
STANDINGS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Actual Wins | 29 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
Actual Losses | 25 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
Actual Win% | .537 |
.444 |
.455 |
.429 |
Pythag Wins | 28.0 |
23.8 |
26.9 |
26.0 |
Pythag Losses | 26.0 |
30.2 |
28.1 |
30.0 |
Pythag Win% | .519 |
.440 |
.490 |
.464 |
Periph Wins | 30.7 |
24.1 |
25.1 |
24.5 |
Periph Losses | 23.3 |
29.9 |
29.9 |
31.5 |
Periph Win% | .568 |
.447 |
.456 |
.437 |
PARKS | TEXAS |
LA ANGELS |
OAKLAND |
SEATTLE |
Park Factor (OPS) | 1.05 |
0.95 |
0.98 |
0.94 |
Park Factor (Runs) | 1.03 |
0.95 |
1.01 |
0.96 |
Posted by Lucas at June 3, 2006 11:29 AM