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June 03, 2006

The AL West Through May (Well, Through June 2)

The Rangers lead the division as they did after April. Recent issues with run scoring (4.25 runs per game over the last twelve) have pulled them down to seventh in the AL in runs scored, below average once accounting for park. Texas does have an OPS+ of 103, so they've scored fewer runs than their line of .278/.348/.457 would suggest. Observe Seattle's hacktastic walk rate of 6%; the Mariners trail even the pitiful Royals in bases on balls.

Texas has an ERA+ of 106. As in 2004, the Rangers are winning more with pitching and defense than hitting. The key is a remarkably stingy 51 homers allowed, nine fewer than any West opponent and third fewest in the league. Texas trails only the Yankees in park-adjusted slugging percentage allowed. The rotation has held strong while the bullpen has regained respectability after a rough start.

About the statistics: You're probably familiar with Baseball Reference's statistics OPS+ and ERA+. The "+" denotes conversion of the statistic to an index that is adjusted for each team's league and park. A score of 100 equates to an average performance in the particular statistic. For example, Texas plays in a hitter-friendly park and must score 5.2 runs per game to “break even.” Los Angeles, in a very pitcher-friendly park, has a break-even rate of about 4.8 runs per game. One can, if one is a nerd, use this indexing for any statistic: runs scored (RS+), runs allowed (RA+), on-base percentage, triples, and so on.

OFFENSE
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Games
54
54
55
56
Runs Scored
275
242
246
256
Runs Scored/game
5.09
4.48
4.47
4.57
Park-Adj. League RS/Game
5.14
4.74
5.05
4.81
RS+
99
95
89
95
 
AVG
.278
.252
.243
.264
OBP
.348
.310
.324
.318
OBP+
102
93
96
95
SLUG+
.457
.391
.404
.395
SLUG+
101
94
95
96
Team OPS
.805
.701
.728
.713
Team OPS+
103
87
91
91
 
HR Rate
3.2%
2.4%
3.3%
2.1%
BB Rate
9%
7%
10%
6%
SO Rate
17%
16%
15%
15%
Steals / Caught
11 / 9
51 / 15
13 / 7
41 / 18

PITCHING
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Runs Allowed
265
273
251
275
Runs Allowed/Game
4.91
5.06
4.56
4.91
Park-Adj. League RA/Game
5.18
4.77
5.09
4.84
RA+
106
94
111
99
 
ERA
4.65
4.58
4.37
4.65
Park-Adj. League ERA/Game
4.91
4.53
4.82
4.59
ERA+
106
99
110
99
Unearned Runs Allowed
18
29
15
18
 
Opp. AVG
.271
.263
.266
.260
Opp. OBP
.336
.323
.341
.331
Opp. OBP+
98
97
101
99
Opp. SLUG
.412
.424
.424
.426
Opp. SLUG+
91
102
100
103
Opp. OPS
.748
.747
.765
.757
Oppo. OPS+
90
98
101
102
 
HR Rate
2.5%
3.1%
2.9%
3.2%
BB Rate
8%
7%
9%
9%
SO Rate
16%
18%
15%
17%
Opp. Steals / Caught
19 / 14
26 / 13
25 / 19
30 / 12

ROTATION / BULLPEN
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Rotation IP/G
5.5
5.8
6.0
6.0
Rotation ERA
4.84
4.78
4.55
4.75
Park-Adj. League Rotation ERA
5.13
4.73
5.03
4.79
Rotation ERA+
106
99
111
101
 
Bullpen ERA
4.33
4.28
4.07
4.71
Park-Adj. League Bullpen ERA
4.57
4.21
4.49
4.27
Bullpen ERA+
106
98
110
91

PERIPHERALS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Runs per game
5.09
4.48
4.47
4.57
Expected RS/game
5.36
4.16
4.47
4.25
"Luck" per game
(0.27)
0.33
(0.00)
0.33
"Lucky" runs scored
(14)
18
(0)
18
 
Runs/G
4.91
5.06
4.56
4.91
Projected Runs / G
4.68
4.62
4.89
4.82
Luck per game
0.23
0.43
(0.32)
0.09
"Lucky" runs prevented
(13)
(23)
18
(5)
 
Total Luck
(27)
(6)
18
13

STANDINGS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Actual Wins
29
24
25
24
Actual Losses
25
30
30
32
Actual Win%
.537
.444
.455
.429
 
Pythag Wins
28.0
23.8
26.9
26.0
Pythag Losses
26.0
30.2
28.1
30.0
Pythag Win%
.519
.440
.490
.464
 
Periph Wins
30.7
24.1
25.1
24.5
Periph Losses
23.3
29.9
29.9
31.5
Periph Win%
.568
.447
.456
.437

PARKS
TEXAS
LA ANGELS
OAKLAND
SEATTLE
Park Factor (OPS)
1.05
0.95
0.98
0.94
Park Factor (Runs)
1.03
0.95
1.01
0.96

Posted by Lucas at June 3, 2006 11:29 AM