The Ranger Rundown: Ranger History Archives

January 26, 2008

Scoring the Soriano-Wilkerson Trade

Assuming for the sake of argument that Armando Galarraga is claimed and not traded, the book will close on the Soriano for Wilkerson-Sledge-Galarraga deal. This is one of those trades in which the emotional fallout dwarfs the actual on-field results. Recall that Soriano walked after 2007, and Washington didn’t even offer arbitration. Meanwhile, Wilkerson wasn’t completely useless during 2007, he just looked it.

WIN SHARES	2006	2007	TOTAL
Wilkerson	5	11	16
Galarraga	0	0	0
Sledge	0	0	0
TEXAS TOTAL			16
Soriano	30	0	30
WSH TOTAL			30
DIFFERENCE			-14

Texas win share deficit: 14 (about 5 wins)

WARP	2006	2007	TOTAL
Wilkerson	1.6	3.4	5.0
Galarraga	0.0	0.1	0.1
Sledge	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEXAS TOTAL			5.1
Soriano	7.8	0.0	7.8
WSH TOTAL			7.8
DIFFERENCE			-2.7

Texas WARP deficit: -2.7 (almost 3 wins)

As for emotional and actual fallout, Texas quickly retraded Sledge with Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton (aka The Wiz) and Aki Otsuka. I haven’t included that return in the above tables because Sledge was clearly a pot sweetener, not a lynchpin. Assuming he’s about 10% of the trade value, add two win shares and .9 WARP to Texas’s totals.

Let us not speak of these trades again.

Posted by Lucas at 04:14 PM

December 21, 2007

Revisiting the Gonzalez-Young-Sledge for Eaton-Otsuka-Killian Trade

I have a theory about Adam Eaton. Not a theory in the technical sense (a rigorously tested and accepted explanation of certain phenomena; e.g., evolution) but in the non-technical sense (a crazy-ass idea; e.g., what nitwit ID’ers think of evolution)

My theory: Adam Eaton is “The Wiz” from Seinfeld.

You may remember The Wiz mostly for prancing around the coffee shop and bellowing, “I’m the Wiz and noooobody beats me!!!” More to the point, this very ordinary-looking guy had the power to entrance anyone who looked into his eyes. Upon meeting him, Elaine ditched Puddy immediately via a phone call. (“You dumped me for some idiotic TV pitchman,” he later groused.)

I believe Adam Eaton has this power. Jon Daniels looked into his eyes and turned to goo, giving up Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge for Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and Billy “Irish Red” Killian. How else to explain such affection for a pitcher who in six years had failed to pitch 162 innings four times and failed to post a league-average ERA five times.

Philly GM Pat Gillick suffered the same fate, giving Eaton $24 million in November 2006 after another spotty and injury-plagued season. Before the next season began, the Phillies were already considering moving him to the bullpen because of a surfeit of rotation candidates. He survived that scare but proceeded to have his worst season (6.29 ERA with nightmarish peripherals), was omitted from the postseason roster, and once again might be banished to relief. Oh, but to look in his eyes…

Anyway, my initial take on the trade (edited, click for full version if you dare):

Ugh.

At best a lateral move in the short run, possibly a terrible move in the long run. Both Eaton and Otsuka are free agents after 2006 [note: Aki actually couldn’t become a free agent until after 2008. Wouldn’t have changed my opinion.], Eaton will earn in excess of $4 million, and he almost certainly won’t resign with Texas. Meanwhile, Young, Gonzalez and Sledge are company property and inexpensive for the next several years.

Two weeks ago with rumors bounding, Eaton expressed mixed feelings about pitching in Arlington: “It's not conducive to my style of pitching; I'm a fly-ball pitcher. If I was to stay there, it'd have to be for crazy money. Granted, that is an offense that's going to put up some runs. You could take a Coors Field approach to the game." Texas isn’t Coors Field, but the well-spoken Eaton nailed the disconnection between his pitching style and The Ballpark. Petco Park and its predecessor kill fly balls, whereas The Ballpark propels them into the ionosphere.

Moving from Petco to The Ballpark adds about 0.90 to [Eaton’s] ERA. During the last five years Eaton never finished with an above-average ERA+ in a park tailored to his skill set, so why would he do so in The Ballpark? After the Park fiasco, I’m assuming Ranger management isn’t so daft as to ignore park factors. So, what gives?

San Diego led off the NLDS against St. Louis with Jake Peavy, Pedro Astacio and Woody Williams. Eaton would have pitched Game Four had the Pads not been swept, but what does it say when rampant mediocrities like Astacio and Williams rank higher than him on the pecking order?

Chris Young is a year younger than Eaton and signed for $1.1 million over the next two years followed by three years of arbitration-eligibility. Young struggled as summer waxed but still finished his rookie season with a WARP of 4.8, better than Eaton’s career-high of 4.6…If Eaton has a 4.75 ERA and Young’s hovers in the low threes, Ranger fans will howl. And they should.

Adrian Gonzalez has yet to display his talents to full advantage in the Majors, but his Age-23 season in pitcher-friendly Oklahoma (.338/.399/.561) indicates he warrants a full-time job. Texas surprisingly gave him a part-time DH role to start the season but seemed to sour on him within just two weeks, and he spent most of the next four months in AAA.

Otsuka keeps the ball on the ground and won’t suffer as much damage moving to Arlington. He represents a substantial addition to the bullpen at a considerable discount ($1.75 million) from the crazy-money teams are throwing at middle relievers.

My unease regarding Eaton increased substantially when he commented on his former team:

Everybody looks at everything else besides the end result, and that’s one thing I’ve kind of been able to do in the past (focusing on wins), for an offense that really didn’t put a whole bunch of runs up for me in the past few years in San Diego… I have a real hard time figuring how or what I’m going to do with run support [in Texas]. I haven’t had that luxury in a long time… [Eight runs] is like a nice two-week span for me at times. There was a time that I would be told, how hard is it to throw a shutout and hit a home run. That was true, you actually had to do that to get a “W” the past few years.

Through a little research, I determined that: 1) San Diego did not have a bad offense, 2) Eaton received better run support than the rotation as a whole, and 3) his won-loss record during 2003-2005 was better than he deserved (31-31 despite three consecutive sub-par years).

Where Are They Now?

Eaton departed after one season, as expected, and Texas didn’t offer arbitration, as expected. Otsuka spent half of 2007 injured and has yet to recover fully. Uncomfortable with offering arbitration to a convalescing 35-year-old, Texas non-tendered him. Killian never surpassed low-A and was traded to the White Sox for “future considerations” (bootleg copy of Dance Dance Revolution). After two seasons, Texas’s production from the trade is complete, without even a compensatory draft pick to provide hope of future benefits.

Meanwhile, Young and Gonzalez are signed to four-year contracts through 2010 (plus team options for 2011) for a combined $24 million. Both have postseason experience. Young tossed 6.2 shutout innings in the ’06 NLDS, and Gonzalez batted .357 with three walks. Sledge migrated to Japan after two indifferent seasons as a backup and AAA insurance policy.

How Bad Is Bad?

Once again, I’ve compared the value of this trade using Win Shares and Wins Above Replacement Player.

WIN SHARES	2006	2007	TOTAL
Gonzalez	17	27	44
Young	12	13	25
Sledge	1	4	5
SDG TOTAL			74
Eaton	2	0	2
Otsuka	11	5	16
Killian	0	0	0
TEX TOTAL			18
DIFFERENCE			56

Texas Win Share Deficit: 56 (18 wins)

WARP	2006	2007	TOTAL
Gonzalez	8.6	9.3	17.9
Young	4.9	5.7	10.6
Sledge	0.4	1.6	2.0
SDG TOTAL			30.5
Eaton	1.8	0.0	1.8
Otsuka	5.9	1.7	7.6
Killian	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEX TOTAL			9.4
DIFFERENCE			21.1

Texas WARP Deficit: 21.1 (about 21 wins)

In just two seasons, the difference in production is worth about twenty wins, an astonishing number. To salt the wound, Texas paid $9.4 million to Eaton and Otsuka during 2006-2007 while Gonzalez, Young and Sledge earned under $2.5 million.

How does this trade compare to two other infamous deals I've written about, both by John Hart: the Giles-for-Rincon trade between Cleveland and Pittsburgh and the Hafner-for-Diaz swap between the Tribe and Texas? Pretty terribly, that's how:

Trade	Win Share Deficit After Two Years	WARP Deficit After Two Years
Young / Gonzalez / Sledge for Eaton / Otsuka / Killian	56	21.1
Giles for Rincon	54	18.1
Hafner / Myette for Diaz / Drese	4	-0.4

This trade surpasses the one-sidedness of John Hart’s infamous Giles-for-Rincon deal. The Hafner trade took a while longer to inflict its pain. Hafner spent part of 2003 in the minors and generated only a .327 OBP, and in 2004 Texas received an improbably fine season from Ryan Drese. Including the entire post-trade outcome, I calculate an advantage of 50 win shares and 11.1 WARP for Cleveland, still less disastrous than the Young/Gonzalez transaction.

In sum:

This trade is already worse than the Giles-for-Rincon and Hafner-for-Diaz trades. Right now. And forever.

In a few years, I hope the trades of Teixeira, Gagne and Lofton provide the opportunity to write a similar article in Texas's favor.

Posted by Lucas at 12:43 AM

December 16, 2007

Reviewing the Lee-Cordero Trade

On July 28, 2006, Texas traded set-up man Francisco Cordero, outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix, and minor-league pitcher Julian Cordero to Milwaukee for outfielders Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz. Heading into that night’s home game against Kansas City, the Rangers were 51-51, two games behind Oakland and 1.5 back from Los Angeles. After the series with the Royals, Texas would depart for a potentially make-or-break road trip against Minnesota, LA, and Oakland.

The Rangers had decided they could live without Cordero, who lost his closer’s role after a disastrous April, and needed a more potent and consistent bat than Mench’s if they hoped to win the West. Cruz had excelled in AAA but at age 26 still hadn’t seen many MLB at-bats.

Meanwhile, the Brewers had lost 11 of 15 to fall hopelessly behind the suddenly hot Cardinals and six games out of the wild card. More hopeless was their perceived chance of re-signing free-agent-to-be Carlos Lee. Though the front-line acquisition of Cordero gave the appearance of “win now,” it was really a trade for 2008. Also, Cordero, Nix, and Mench were originally selected during GM Doug Melvin’s administration in Texas.

Press and blog reaction was mostly favorable. My initial thoughts:

In short, I like it. Yes, Lee will be a free agent and almost certainly will find himself in another uniform next season, but so will the players Texas relinquished. Now 28, Mench appears to have topped out as merely average outfielder. He does have two arbitration years remaining, but neither will be cheap since he makes $2.8 million already. Nix is three years younger but has stalled in AAA. Perhaps Texas wrecked his career in 2003 by calling him up from AA as a 22-year-old despite his unspectacular stats, but that’s a philosophical discussion for another time. Cordero had probably pitched himself out of next year’s team option [$5 million].

The wildcard is Cruz, who is three months older than Nix and a bit old for a prospect. Still, he’s batted .302/.380/.525 for AAA Toledo with good patience and a terrible strikeout rate.

(In hindsight, I’d retract that Cordero comment. I didn’t anticipate how much teams would be willing to spend on relievers.)

What Happened To Texas?

Lee and Cruz would play that very night; Lee went 2-4 as DH and Cruz pinch-hit for Rod Barajas. Despite their presence, Texas lost two of three to the dreadful Royals, who were 35-66 entering the series, and found themselves three games out of first entering the road trip.

Texas went 5-5 away from home against three winning clubs, acceptable on its face but insufficient for a team trying to win a division. Down 5.5 games after the trip, Texas won eight of its next ten, but Oakland did the same. Then, the infamous three consecutive losses to 49-75 Tampa Bay essentially closed the door. Another torpid September resulted in a 13-game deficit by season’s end.

Lee batted .322/.369/.525 with nine homers and 35 RBI as a Ranger. Management postured that they wanted him for the long haul, but it never rang true. Some desperate team (Houston, it turned out) would offer a ridiculous contract. Plus, his roly-poly effort on a Grady Sizemore blooper that became an inside-the-park home run cemented his status as a DH-in-waiting, and the 30-year-old didn’t look the type to age gracefully. Texas politely thanked him for his effort and took the compensation picks.

Cruz became a classic 4A hitter. Batters can make a living in the PCL with the solitary talent of killing mistake pitches. In the Majors, it’s not enough. He’s still with Texas, 27, out of options, and seemingly destined for waivers or the transactions wire.

What Happened To Milwaukee?

Cordero immediately stepped into Milwaukee’s closer role and saved 16 games in 28 appearances. He walked a few too many, but otherwise he pitched brilliantly. Cordero recovered quickly from his April meltdown and had provided superior relief with Texas ever since, so his excellence with the Brewers was no surprise. Milwaukee gladly picked up his $5 million option, and Cordero was among the best closers in 2007, though not without some drama. In June, he returned to Arlington for an interleague series. Entering the 9th with a 3-0 lead, and having allowed only one run all season, he allowed six consecutive two-out baserunners and lost the game. He blew another save the following night in a game Milwaukee eventually won.

Kevin Mench wiped out in his first session with the Brewers (.230/.248/.317) and came close to being non-tendered. Retained but mostly relegated to the short end of a platoon, he publicly complained about his lot in life while batting a tepid .267/.305/.441. Milwaukee set him free this winter.

Laynce Nix’s batting eye never improved. In AAA, he’s consistently batted .270 with pretty good power and a decent walk rate. In the Majors, his pitch selection drifts toward randomness, resulting in a .230 average and atrocious BB/SO ratio. Nix has 35 strikeouts and no unintentional walks in his last 104 MLB appearances. The Brewers outrighted him after the 2007 season.

The other Cordero, Julian, didn’t pitch in 2007. I don’t know what’s happened to him.

Milwaukee was the darling of the NL in June 2007, pacing the league with a 43-31 record and leading the Central by 8.5 games. Pythagoras had them at a more modest 40-34, however, and regression and injuries led to a 40-48 finish and second place. Division-mate Cincinnati offered Cordero $46 million for four years of service, an offer Milwaukee respectfully declined to exceed.

Who Won?

As with this article, I’ve compared the value of this trade using Win Shares and Wins Above Replacement Player.

WIN SHARES	2006	2007	TOTAL
F. Cordero	6	10	16
Mench	0	8	8
Nix	0	0	0
J. Cordero	0	0	0
-- '08 pick 1	0	0	0
-- '08 pick 2	0	0	0
MIL TOTAL			24
Lee	7	0	7
Cruz	3	4	7
-- Beavan	0	0	0
-- Borbon	0	0	0
TEX TOTAL			14

Texas Win Share Deficit: 10 (about three wins)

WARP	2006	2007	TOTAL
F. Cordero	3.8	6.0	9.8
Mench	-0.2	1.7	1.5
Nix	-0.1	-0.4	-0.5
J. Cordero	0.0	0.0	0.0
-- '08 pick 1	0.0	0.0	0.0
-- '08 pick 2	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIL TOTAL			10.8
Lee	2.2	0.0	2.2
Cruz	0.7	2.3	3.0
-- Beavan	0.0	0.0	0.0
-- Borbon	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEX TOTAL			5.2

Texas WARP Deficit: 5.6 (almost six wins)

Superficially, Milwaukee got the better of the deal. Texas won 2006 with Lee, though not by much, but by 2007 had only a failing Cruz on its roster. In terms of value per dollar, it’s nearly a tie. Milwaukee spent about $10.5 million on Cordero, Mench and Nix, getting 2.2 wins shares and 1.0 WARP per million in salary. To date, Texas has forked out $5.6 million on Lee, Cruz, and the two players drafted with its compensation picks, equivalent to 2.5 win shares and 0.9 WARP per million.

In truth, neither team has won, given that the point of the trade was to supply the missing piece for a trip to the postseason. We won’t know the ultimate winner for years. Remind me to revisit the trade in 2012, when we can assess whether Blake Beavan and Julio Borbon have paid off more than the compensation picks Milwaukee will receive in the 2008 draft.

Posted by Lucas at 01:21 PM

June 22, 2007

The Veteran Bat

Despite the achievement of his 600th homer, to date Sammy Sosa represents another failed attempt at renting a veteran bat, by which I mean an older player hired on a one-year deal.

Player	Year	Base Salary	Games	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	RBI	OPS+	MLV	Result
Sammy Sosa	2007	$ 0.5	62	.242/.297/.458	12	53	93	(0.03)
Phil Nevin	2006	$ 10.5	46	.216/.307/.415	9	31	82	(0.14)	5/31, traded to CHC for Jerry Hairston
Brad Fullmer	2004	$ 1.0	76	.233/.310/.442	11	33	85	(0.09)	7/24, injured, did not return
Ruben Sierra	2003	$ 0.6	43	.263/.333/.398	3	12	85	(0.06)	6/06, traded to NYY for Marcus Thames
Andres Galarraga	2001	$ 6.0	72	.235/.310/.424	10	34	92	(0.07)	7/24, traded to SFO for Erasmo Ramirez and others
Ken Caminiti	2001	$ 3.5	54	.232/.318/.432	9	25	96	(0.03)	7/02, released

(MLV is marginal lineup value, a measure of one player’s positive or negative effect on runs scored per game. It’s not position-adjusted.)

This list isn’t entirely consistent; Texas actually traded for Nevin during 2005 and Caminiti was also commissioned to provide solid defense at third. But they fit thematically, if not technically.

Sosa’s standing among fandom at large is helped immensely by his quest for 600, his 53 RBIs and an awful surrounding cast that bestows upon him an air of relative competence. In truth, he is, at best, a very modest improvement on the veteran bats preceding him.

Posted by Lucas at 06:49 PM

June 21, 2007

History Lesson

Most Days For Texas As Worst Team in AL During A Season

Year	Days in Last
1973	132
1972	52
1985	39
1984	38
2007	27
1982	12
1987	7
1994	4
2000	4
1978	3
1990	1

Consective Days for Texas as Worst Team in AL

Period	Days
5/03/73 - 6/30/73	58
8/08/73 - 10/01/73	54
8/31/72 - 10/04/72	34
5/01/85 - 5/30/85	29
5/06/84 - 5/26/84	20
7/18/84 - 8/02/84	15
5/02/82 - 5/13/82	11
6/10/07 - 6/21/07	11
4/22/73 - 4/30/73	8
7/14/73 - 7/21/73	7
4/19/87 - 4/25/87	6
5/22/07 - 5/28/07	6
8/03/72 - 8/08/72	5
4/24/85 - 4/29/85	5

(First nine games of season are not included in either table.)

Surprisingly, Texas was never the worst AL team at any time during 2000-2006 except for one day, September 22, 2000.

Posted by Lucas at 07:08 PM

May 27, 2007

Answer To "Quick!"

Answer to “Quick!”

On June 6, 1990, Texas was 21-32, eleven games under .500. They played .569 ball (62-47) the rest of way to finish 83-79. The Rangers made no dramatic changes to the roster or lineup. They simply played better. Incidentally, on July 2nd the outfield behind Nolan Ryan consisted of Jack Daugherty, Pete Incaviglia and Kevin Reimer. They committed no errors.

In the eleven previous seasons during which the Rangers fell at least thirteen games under .500 (as is the case right now), they’ve never surpassed a 76-86 record (1976).

Posted by Lucas at 12:01 PM

May 26, 2007

Quick!

What’s the most games Texas has been under .500 and still finished with a winning record?

Posted by Lucas at 03:44 PM

May 18, 2007

Facts Are Stubborn Things

Texas has never finished better than 84-76 after starting the first 41 games with a losing record.

Texas has never won more than 73 games in a season when starting the first 41 games with 15 or fewer wins.

Texas has continued to play sub-.500 ball in ten of twelve previous seasons in which it started the first 41 games with a losing record.

Year	Record After 41 Games	Games Above / Below .500 For Rest Of Season	Final Record
1982	13-28	(19)	64-98
1973	13-28	(33)	57-105
1985	14-27	(24)	62-99
2001	14-27	(3)	73-89
2007	15-26	?	?
1984	15-26	(12)	69-92
1987	17-24	(5)	75-87
1972	17-24	(39)	54-100
2003	17-24	(13)	71-91
1994	18-23	(5)	52-62
1990	18-23	9	83-79
2002	19-22	(15)	72-90
1974	20-21	9	84-76

Posted by Lucas at 12:54 AM

April 06, 2007

A History Of 0-3 Starts

Texas has begun a season with three consecutive losses four times. What happened next?

Year	Start	Rest of April	Final Record
1973	0-3	6-7	57-105
1985	0-3	7-9	62-99
1991	0-3	8-5	85-77
2002	0-3	10-12	72-90

Only the ’91 team finished with a winning record. That was the crazy year in which Texas won 14 straight, then lost 11 of 12, then won seven straight.

The other teams were terrible, of course. However, it’s worth noting that those teams were also lousy the previous year. The ’72 team lost 100 games, the ’84 club lost 92, and the ’01 edition had lost 89. The 2007 Rangers aren’t nearly as bad as any of those teams.

Incidentally, I’m glad I’m not a paid opinion columnist who has to write about the Rangers’ opening games on a daily basis. Being just the occasional blogger, I can lay low for a few days while others offer sub-headlines like “Fans running out of reasons to believe” on the 6th of April.

That said, if the season really does fall off a cliff, a weekly cat picture may not suffice. I’ll have to turn the Rundown into Cute Overload, only with more drink recipes.

Posted by Lucas at 12:44 PM

February 05, 2007

Unknown Pleasures -- The Hitters, #1-#2

Fifth in a series on Rangers who provided unexpected help with their bats for a season. Hitters 16-20 are here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here, 3-5 here.

2. Wayne Tolleson, infielder, 1985

Span	Plate Apps.	Average	On-Base	Slugging	Runs	Homers	RBI	Season OPS+
Season (5th)	355	.313	.353	.381	45	1	18	101
Career (10 yrs)	2613	.241	.307	.293	301	9	133	66

1985 was the nadir of Ranger history. Although Texas won fewer games in 1972 and 1973, big-league baseball in Arlington was a novelty and the team had the air of an expansion team (which they weren’t, of course) that was expected to lose.

After losing 98, 85, and 92 games during 1982-1984, Texas would lose 99 in 1985. A series of mediocre drafts and disastrous trades had gutted the team. Rotation members not named Charlie Hough combined for 683 innings and a 5.53 ERA (76 ERA+). Meanwhile, Dave Righetti, Ron Darling, John Butcher, Mike Smithson (plus reliever Tom Henke) pitched for other teams. The hitters consisted of prospects of varying quality (Steve Buechele, Oddible McDowell, Curtis Wilkerson, Tom Dunbar), good players enduring tough seasons (Larry Parrish and especially Buddy Bell), and an elderly quartet (Toby Harrah, Cliff Johnson, Bob Jones, Bill Stein).

Modern-day metrics think little of Wayne Tolleson’s defensive abilities, but he must have had a solid reputation at the time because he sure didn’t hit. Texas’s 8th-rounder from 1978 never exceeded a .274 average or .354 slugging percentage at any minor-league level. Nevertheless, he became the everyday second baseman in 1983 (moved from short in favor of Bucky Dent) and batted .260/.319/.315 in one of two seasons in which he qualified for the batting title.

By mid-1984, terrible hitting had reduced Tolleson to a utility role. He entered 1985 with a ghastly career line of .228/.289/.273 and received only three plate appearances in the season’s first 16 games. Given a rare start against Toronto at the end of April, he went three-for-three. Immediately, he found himself in a greatly expanded role, sharing shortstop with Wilkerson and spot-starting at second in addition to his pinch-runner and defensive sub duties. And, for the first time in his eight professional seasons, he hit. Tolleson produced negligible power and his usual vanilla walk rate, but he also batted .313. Other than a .250 average in September he never batted below .315 in any month. Tolleson’s one home run occurred on July 21st, a ninth-inning shot that gave Texas a 7-5 victory against defending Series champ Detroit.

Yes, Tolleson was lucky. After batting .265 on balls in play from 1981-1984, he hit .362 in his magical season. No, Tolleson’s single-heavy attack didn’t produce much. From the beginning of May until mid-June, Tolleson batted .333 with 23 singles, four doubles and four walks… and drove in not a single run. But why quibble.

Tolleson had one more acceptable offensive performance in him, splitting time between the White Sox and Yankees the next season. Afterwards, he didn’t hit much and quickly devolved into a bench role. Tolleson finished his MLB career in 1990 with 18 consecutive hitless at-bats.

1. Kurt Bevacqua, everywhere, 1977

Span	Plate Apps.	Average	On-Base	Slugging	Runs	Homers	RBI	Season OPS+
Season (7th)	104	.333	.354	.604	21	6	30	159
Career (15 yrs)	2398	.236	.305	.327	214	27	275	77

How did Kurt Bevacqua earn an MLB paycheck for fifteen years? The statistics detail his longevity but don’t explain it. He was the ultimate replacement-level player with a career WARP of just 7.4 and single-season WARPs ranging from -0.5 to a dizzying height of 1.5. True, he could play any position but catcher, but according to Baseball Prospectus he rated poorly at everywhere but first, where his weak bat least belonged.

Entering 1977, his six-year career included four trades and two contract purchases (essentially a trade for a nominal amount of cash). He had a career line of .222/.281/.291 and an sub-Neifi OPS+ of 59. In the ultimate indignity, the Seattle Mariners released him eleven days before the start of their inaugural season. At age 30, he seemed finished.

Instead, he played for one of the best teams in Ranger history. Texas signed Bevacqua after Opening Day and assigned him to AAA Tucson, where he batted .351 and slugged .531 in 94 games. Still, Texas had no reason to expect anything of him. He had batted .310 and slugged .472 in over 2,000 plate appearances in AAA, impressive results that had never translated into anything useful at the Major League level. Until July 1977.

Recalled to Texas soon after the All Star break, Bevacqua inexplicably hit as if he’d never left Tucson. In the past, he’d never hit for average or power, his offensive skill set defined solely by an acceptable walk rate. In Texas he inverted his history, batting .318/.347/.545 in eighteen starts and .366/.375/.733 as a pinch-hitter and in-game substitute. He played first, second, third, left, right, and DH for Texas. His personal best might have occurred on September 25th in a doubleheader at Oakland (attendance: 2,479). In the first game, Bevacqua singled home Jim Sundberg with two outs in the ninth to pull Texas within a run in a game Texas eventually won in 14 innings. Bevacqua started at third and batted cleanup in the second game and hit a two-run double in the third to give Texas a lead it would not relinquish.

With his help, Texas climbed into first on August 18th, ahead of three teams within 1.5 games. The Rangers finished a solid 26-18, but Kansas City concluded with a ridiculous 36-9 record to win the West.

Still with Texas in 1978, Bevacqua promptly resumed hitting like the poor man’s Neifi Perez (or the rich man’s Ray Oyler, if you prefer). After the season, Texas packaged him with Mike Hargrove and Bill Fahey to San Diego for Oscar Gamble and Dave Roberts. During the 80s, Bevacqua improved enough to offer acceptable on-base skills. Otherwise, he provided his usual sub-sub-par bat and “versatility.” In the1984 World Series, he trumped his ’77 performance with Texas and rewarded Dick Williams’s bizarre decision to start him at DH by batting .412 with two homers against Detroit.

Posted by Lucas at 11:02 PM

February 02, 2007

Ned Yost, Ace Pinch-Hitter

Allow me to blow your mind:

Ned Yost once pinch-hit for Mickey Rivers… against Detroit closer Willie Hernandez… in the ninth inning… with Texas losing by one run.

I was wandering around Baseball-Reference.com and came upon Ned Yost. His entry at Baseball Reference initially reveals his managerial record, but longtime Ranger fans know him better as the woefully slight return in the Jim Sundberg trade. To be sure, Sundberg was past his prime at 32 and had batted a disastrous .201/.272/.254 in 1983. However, Yost was no improvement: already 28 himself, inferior to Sundberg defensively and holding a line of .233/.264/.372 in 368 career plate appearances. Only decent power (for a catcher, in that era) merited a positive review.

How unpopular was this trade? Pretend Texas signs Michael Young to an extension. In 2010, Young is 33, clearly fading but still capable. Then, pretend Texas trades Young for Andres Blanco. Mortifying, isn’t it? That’s what Texas did 23 years ago.

Yost didn’t engineer the trade himself but had to endure much of the fans’ disgust during a hopeless 1984 campaign in which the Rangers failed to achieve 70 wins for the second time in three years. During the opening series against Cleveland, he singled and walked in his first game, then homered in his second. So far, so good. For the rest of April, he batted .121 with two walks. By the end of May, he’d lost his regular job to Donnie Scott, a 23-year-old recalled from the minors. Yost batted .182/.201/.273 for the season and ended up playing fewer games at catcher than Scott.

Yost played in 80 games but only 78 at catcher, which brings up the improbable pinch-hit. In two games, he appeared exclusively as a pinch hitter. The concept of Yost pinch-hitting doesn’t completely shock the conscience. Perhaps manager Doug Rader let Yost bat during a blowout in an attempt to boost his confidence or just to get him off the bench. Yost had appeared in only two games during the first three weeks of July.

Curious, I opened the box score of his first PH attempt on July 21, 1984, skipped to the bottom of the page, and then heard the late Jack Buck’s voice in my head: “I don’t believe what I just saw!”

Top of the 9th, Rangers batting, behind 6-7, Willie Hernandez facing 9-1-2:
Out -- W Tolleson -- Flyball: CF
Ned Yost pinch hits for Mickey Rivers batting 1st

What? WHAT? Rader yanked the leadoff hitter with a .285 average for a backup catcher hitting .164? With the game on the line? True, the outcome of this game meant little. Texas had the worst record in the AL while the fabled ’84 Tigers were on their way to winning about 259 games and the World Series. Still, I’ve no doubt that Rader would not have made such a move frivolously. Possible explanations include:

A wolverine ate Mickey Rivers as he stood in the on-deck circle.

The Rangers were in Michigan, after all. But in fact, Rivers played the next day. No wolverine.
Rivers was injured after the eighth inning and couldn’t bat.

I have no direct evidence that Rivers was healthy at that exact moment in time. However, he was not pulled for a defensive replacement the previous inning, and again, he did start and play all of the next day’s game. Injury is an unlikely explanation.
Rader was playing all-or-nothing, and Yost was more likely to homer.

Superficially, this is at least plausible. Yost averaged one homer per 40 plate appearances during his career, Rivers one per 99. But with Pete O’Brien (.313/.370/.472 at the time) on deck and Buddy Bell (.305/.380/.445) in the hole, which batter makes the most sense in this situation?

OBP HR%
Player A .197 2.5%
Player B .310 1.0%
Rivers had an unfavorable history with Willie Hernandez, and/or Yost had hit well against him.

Nope. Rivers had never faced Hernandez (and never would) Yost had only one appearance, two weeks prior. He struck out with the bases loaded and Texas down by three in the bottom of the 8th. Go figure.
Rader was playing a favorable lefty/righty split.

We have a winner. The lefty Hernandez devoured lefties but was rather ordinary against righties. Rivers was a lefty, and despite hitting .314 against lefties in 1981, he’d been demoted to platoon status ever since. He had only 63 plate appearances against lefties from 1982-1984 and batted a pitcher-esque .121/.138/.159. Yost was right-handed and also had a pronounced platoon split, albeit mostly a function of utter helplessness against righties (.242/.259/.388 against lefties, .184/.218/.275 against righties).

Yost, despite that split, was not a better hitter against lefties than Rivers over the course of his career. It raises the interesting question of which situation you’d rather have:

Hernandez (L) vs Lefties -- .211/.263/.295
Rivers (L) vs Lefties -- .285/.320/.374 (but only .121/.138/.159 during last three years)

Hernandez (L) vs Righties -- .260/.329/.406
Yost (R) vs Lefties -- .242/.259/.388

I’d conclude that pinch-hitting for Rivers is defensible, even preferable. But is replacing Rivers with Yost defensible? Did Texas have a bench player that evening both right-handed and superior to Yost? A review of potential pinch-hitters from the 1984 roster:

Righty Billy Sample pinch-hit for lefty catcher Marv Foley against Hernandez to lead off the 8th. Righty Gary Ward then pinch-hit for lefty DH Tommy Dunbar. Donnie Scott replaced Ward and caught the rest of the game. All of these moves make sense.
Jeff Kunkel didn’t make his MLB debut until two days later. He may have occupied the roster that night, but the situation wasn’t suitable for his first big-league at-bat.
Alan Bannister was enjoying an absurdly successful season (see #9 on this list) but didn’t play between June 26th and July 30th. He may have been hurt.
Dave Hostetler likewise did not appear between June 29th and September 5th. I believe he was in AAA.
Jim Anderson didn’t play between July 16th and September 4th. He also may have been in the minors or hurt.
Bill Stein hit lefties at a rate of .294/.336/.421 during his 14-year career. Like so many Rangers, he seems to have disappeared during the game in question. After starting at second base the night before, he didn’t play again until September 3rd.
Mike Richardt and Kevin Buckley weren’t Rangers at the time.

Assuming 10 pitchers on a 24-man roster (the limit at the time), the Texas bench may have consisted of Ward, Sample, Foley, Yost, and Kunkel. With Ward, Sample and Foley unavailable and Kunkel waiting for a more appropriate opportunity, Doug Rader had to choose between Rivers and Yost.

Yost flied out to center. O’Brien struck out to end the game. Still, Rader chose correctly.

Posted by Lucas at 06:56 PM

January 08, 2007

Run Scoring At Home And Abroad

Several Rangers have struggled to hit on the road, most notably Hank Blalock and the departed Alfonso Soriano, giving the Rangers a reputation as a poor road-hitting team. Failure to hit on the road possibly cost the team a division title in 2004.

This reputation no longer conforms to reality. Texas hasn’t achieved a .500 record during the last two years, but road hitting should not bear the blame. Indeed, last year a weak home performance contributed to an inexcusable losing record in Arlington.

The following tables show Texas’s abilty to score at home and on the road during 2003-2006. The AL average runs scored per game was adjusted for park and for home team. Irrespective of location, home teams tend to hit slightly better than visitors. All adjustments use one-year factors (no smoothing using multiple years of data), and figures are rounded. Note that The Ballpark reverted from “insanely hitter-friendly” to “reasonably hitter-friendly” in 2005.

RANGER HOME GAMES	2003	2004	2005	2006
AL Runs Scored per Game	4.89	5.01	4.76	4.97
Park Adjustment	1.22	1.22	1.08	1.08
Home Adjustment	1.01	1.01	1.02	1.04
Adjusted League-Average Runs Scored per Game	6.00	6.14	5.24	5.57
Texas Runs Scored per Game	5.93	6.06	5.79	5.28
Run Index	99	99	110	95

RANGER ROAD GAMES	2003	2004	2005	2006
AL Runs Scored per Game	4.89	5.01	4.76	4.97
Park Adjustment	0.98	0.98	0.99	0.99
Home Adjustment	0.99	1.00	0.99	0.98
Adjusted League-Average Runs Scored per Game	4.76	4.91	4.69	4.80
Texas Runs Scored per Game	4.27	4.56	4.89	5.02
Run Index	90	93	104	104

Posted by Lucas at 07:00 PM

November 22, 2006

Keltner Test: Juan Gonzalez

The Keltner Test is a Bill James creation designed to test whether a player merits selection into the Hall of Fame. I've never seen a test on Juan Gonzalez, so here goes:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

I can’t find an example of anyone stating that Juan Gonzalez was ever the best player in baseball. Maybe, maybe, during July of 1998 when Gonzalez achieved 100 RBI by the All-Star break, someone gushed that he was the best player in the game. Otherwise, nope.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

I intend to answer these questions without using many derived statistics, but in this case the stats offer an interesting perspective. According to both WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player, a Baseball Prospectus stat) and Bill James’s Win Shares, Gonzalez was never clearly the best player on his team. Except for a first-place tie in Win Shares with Rafael Palmeiro in 1993, he never surpassed bridesmaid status. (Note that for obvious reasons I’ve excluded his tryouts of 1989 and 1990 and his post-2001 meltdown.)

Year	Team	WARP3	Team Rank	Team Best	Win Shares	Team Rank	Team Best
1991	TEX	6.0	6	Palmeiro	19	4	Franco, Sierra
1992	TEX	7.9	3	K Brown	19	2	Palmeiro
1993	TEX	10.0	2	Palmeiro	31	T1	JG, Palmeiro
1994	TEX	6.3	T4	I Rodriguez	11	5	Clark
1995	TEX	3.7	10	Rogers	8	11	Rogers
1996	TEX	6.2	T5	K Hill	21	3	I Rodriguez
1997	TEX	5.6	4	I Rodriguez	19	3	I Rodriguez
1998	TEX	8.1	2	I Rodriguez	25	2	I Rodriguez
1999	TEX	7.4	3	I Rodriguez	24	3	Palmeiro
2000	DET	3.0	10	Higginson	9	11	Higginson
2001	CLE	8.6	2	R Alomar	23	3	R Alomar

Surprisingly, Gonzalez was rarely even the best hitter on his team. His predilection to swing at everything usually stranded him behind more patient hitters in terms of Equivalent Runs (another Baseball Prospectus creation):

Year	Team	Equivalent Runs	Team Rank	Team Best
1991	TEX	80	4	Palmeiro, 123
1992	TEX	91	2	Palmeiro, 92
1993	TEX	114	2	Palmeiro, 122
1994	TEX	64	3	Canseco, 90
1995	TEX	64	5	Tettleton, 91
1996	TEX	117	1	Gonzalez
1997	TEX	99	2	Greer, 119
1998	TEX	129	1	Gonzalez
1999	TEX	118	2	Palmeiro, 138
2000	DET	72	5	Higginson, 117
2001	CLE	110	3	Alomar, 130

Despite this evidence, I believe the answer to this question is more “yes” than “no.” During eleven years as an everyday player, he finished among the top three in WARP six times, in Win Shares seven times, and Equivalent Runs eight times. If I hear someone say that Gonzalez was the best player in Texas during the 1990s, I don’t agree (it’s Ivan Rodriguez), but I also don’t question that person’s faculties. It’s not an unreasonable belief.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

No and no. Barry Bonds, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Larry Walker, and Gary Sheffield come immediately to mind as superior corner outfielders during the 1990s. There are others.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Yes. In 1998, Texas trailed California by 3.5 games with only twenty remaining. Texas finished 13-7 with help from Gonzalez’s line of .364/.417/.688. During a critical three-game series in Anaheim in which the teams were tied entering the season’s final week, Gonzalez had a homer, two doubles, a single, and four walks(!). Texas swept the series and won the division.

Texas didn’t face much of a threat for the division title in 1999, but Gonzalez did bat .392/.433/.741 during September and October. He hit three homers and drove in seven during a series with Oakland that clinched the division.

In 2001, Cleveland won the AL Central by six games largely by taking fourteen of nineteen from chief rival Minnesota. Gonzalez batted .361/.397/.639 against the Twins.

Gonzalez played and lost in four divisional series. In 1996 he nearly won the series by himself, batting .438 with five homers and nine RBI in four games. In 1998 and 1999, he and his teammates left their bats in storage. In 2001, he again hit well for Cleveland (.348 with three doubles and two homers against the 116-46 Mariners).

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Surely you jest. Gonzalez has played in only 186 games since turning 32. He finished four consecutive seasons on the Disabled List and hasn’t played a Major League game in August or September since 2001. In 2006 he toiled for the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

He’s not better than Bert Blyleven, so “no.” The Evanses (Darrell and Dwight) are more deserving, as is Ron Santo. There’s a quick four without including his contemporaries.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Only four of Gonzalez’s most similar batters (per Baseball Reference) are Hall-eligible. Of those four, Johnny Mize and Duke Snider are in, and the Defiant Ones, Albert Belle and Dick Allen, are not. Of the others – Carlos Delgado, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Moises Alou, Jose Canseco and Jim Edmonds – only Ramirez seems Hall-worthy at the moment. Those who continue to play and burnish their Hall credentials will become less comparable to Gonzalez, and other, lesser players will take their places.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

In some respects, yes, superficially. Throw Gonzalez in the Hall and he’d rank 21st in homers, 41st in extra-base hits, 44th in RBI and 9th in slugging percentage among the 137 HOF hitters with at least 4,000 at-bats. Impressive.

Unfortunately, Gonzalez suffers terribly in consideration of the hitter-friendly era in which he’s played. Though Gonzalez would rank 21st in homers among Hall members, he presently ranks only 36th all-time. Fourteen active or recently retired players have more homers (the distant retiree being Dave Kingman). Likewise, Gonzalez’s .561 slugging percentage bests all but eight Hall-of-Famers but ranks only 21st all-time. All of the other higher-slugging players are contemporaries.

Of Bill James’s four quick-and-easy statistical tests of Hall-of-Fame worthiness – Black Ink, Grey Ink, Hall of Fame Standards and Hall of Fame Monitor – Gonzalez falls short in three of them.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Gonzalez played mostly during an extremely hitter-friendly era and largely in favorable parks. Park effects have crept into the public consciousness to the extent that even some BBWAA members are aware of them. Voters will understand in general that the hitting climate bolstered his numbers.

Was Gonzalez a better defensive player than commonly perceived? He did spend most of his first four years in center field. My recollection is vague, but the evidence suggests he played center only because of a lack of decent-hitting alternatives. Gonzalez was the One-Eyed King amongst blind outfielders Ruben Sierra, Kevin Reimer, and Dean Palmer, and he could outhit centerfielder Gary Pettis one-handed. During 1991-1992, he started 204 games in center but was replaced or moved to a corner in 70 of those games. After two years in left, he occupied right field for the rest of his career.

Gonzalez didn’t have much range and certainly was disinclined to sacrifice his body to catch a ball. He had a very strong and pretty accurate arm. He started about one-fifth of his 1,689 games at DH, probably fewer than most people think. Also, he never descended to full-time DH and laughingstock like Jose Canseco and was never as hopeless as Manny Ramirez. Yes, that’s awfully faint praise, but I believe it’s worth noting that Gonzalez’s fielding was only garden-variety bad, not outright terrible.

That said, my perception of his defense does not nearly compensate for the era’s and parks’ effects on his offense.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Gonzalez isn’t eligible yet, so let’s consider him in terms of his corner-outfield contemporaries. The answer is clearly no. Barry Bonds, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Larry Walker, Gary Sheffield, and several others were/are better players.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Gonzalez won two MVP awards. He deserved them about as much as 2006 winner Justin Morneau deserved his, which is to say, not at all. He wasn’t even the best hitter in the league, much less the best player, in 1996 or 1998. Nevertheless, the voters thought differently, so he gets full credit. He also finished fourth in 1993, arguably his best year in the Majors, ninth in 1997 and fifth in 2001.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Gonzalez played in only three All-Star games, an extraordinarily low number for a Hall-of-Famer. Among the ten most similar hitters according to Baseball Reference, Hall members or not, only 1B Carlos Delgado has played in fewer. Among the ten most similar hitters through his present age of 35, none has played in fewer. Gonzalez also had three or four additional seasons of All-Star quality.

However, having two MVPs and only three All-Star appearances is not without precedent. HOFer Robin Yount also only played in three All-Star games. Roger Maris played in four, Frank Thomas five.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

In his prime, Gonzalez was better than anyone on the ’06 Tigers or ’05 White Sox. His prime tended to ebb and flow over the years, and he was almost always fighting some nagging injury. Still, the answer is yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

No, no, not directly, and no. Regarding new equipment, Gonzalez did take a petulant stand against baggy pants during the 1999 Hall-of-Fame game. Three years later, the Collective Bargaining Agreement contained new regulations on uniform pants, one of which discourages bagginess. Coincidence? Alas, to this day, Gonzalez’s role in the creation of the “shame on baggy pants” rule remains unclear.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

I’ve avoided the subject of steroids to this point. Jose Canseco alleged that Gonzalez was a fellow user when they were teammates. In light of the lack of evidence, I’m assuming Gonzalez played clean (an assumption that automatically disqualifies me as a nationally syndicated journalist). Obviously, proof of PED-use will make this answer a resounding no.

That issue aside, while I think branding Gonzales “unsportsmanlike” or “of bad character” is overstating the case, he did have episodes of poor behavior. The baggy pants incident, publicly berating a scorekeeper for an unfavorable call, missing too many games with seemingly minor injuries, three divorces, and general moodiness have created an unfavorable, selfish image in the minds of most observers.

SUMMARY OF ANSWERS

Absolutely HOF-worthy – 4, 11, 13
Generally Worthy – 2, 12
Generally Unworthy – 7, 8, 9, 15
Absolutely Unorthy – 1, 3, 5, 6, 10, 14

CONCLUSIONS

What might have been. Among all players through their Age 31 seasons, Gonzalez ranked eighth in homers (397) and seventh in runs batted in (1,282). His comparables included Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray and Duke Snider. Since then, he’s hit 37 homers and driven in 122, about a season’s worth of work.

As it currently stands, Gonzalez’s body of work leaves him short of the Hall of Fame. He was a brilliant player for several years, but he lacked the consistency and durability possessed by almost all Hall members. He’ll have to settle for being one of the best Rangers during their only extended period of success. No shame in that.

Posted by Lucas at 12:32 PM

October 05, 2006

Back In The Day...

What I wrote in an ESPN column (pre-blog) on 1 November 2002 after Showalter was hired:

Reading about Buck Showalter’s zeal for discipline, you might believe Showalter previously helmed the HMS Bounty (as the sadistic Trevor Howard rather than the more nuanced Anthony Hopkins) or perhaps was the Gunnery Sergeant from “Full Metal Jacket.” Presumably, Showalter possesses skills beyond dictating the dress code on flights to Seattle. He has a 563-504 career record, helped to resurrect a faltering Yankee franchise in the early 1990s and led Arizona to the playoffs in its second year of existence. As before, he may wear out his welcome after three or four years. Despite his potentially short shelf-life, he is widely praised for his management and evaluation skills.

The “managerial tendencies” section from STAT’S annual Major League Handbooks (which to my extreme dismay will no longer be published) indicate that Showalter didn’t appear to overmanage his Arizona squads during 2000-2001. They tended to steal more often than the average NL team (especially with none out). He ordered a few more bunts than the typical manager but far fewer hit-and-runs. He eschewed the intentional walk and the pitchout. He did tend to order more mid-inning pitching changes one-batter relief appearances than most managers.

I watched the Howard/Brando version of Bounty again just last Sunday. Showalter was a cupcake compared to Captain Bligh.

Posted by Lucas at 01:09 AM

October 01, 2006

Flat

The Rangers have lost at least six of their final ten games every season this decade, and they’ve lost six of their final seven series:

YEAR    LAST 10  LAST SERIES
2000      1-9        0-3
2001      3-7        1-3
2002      3-7        0-3
2003      4-6        1-2
2004      4-6        2-1
2005      4-6        0-3
2006      3-7        1-2
TOTAL    22-48       5-17

Posted by Lucas at 07:44 PM

August 25, 2006

Fighting History

Over the next 33 games, the Texas Rangers must gain seven games on Oakland and 1.5 on Los Angeles to create a tie for the division title. The odds of doing so are exceedingly slim. Yes, the peripherals suggest Texas is better than its 66-63 record, and Oakland is winning despite a kittycat-tame offense. Maybe Texas “deserves” better, but advancing that argument involves the consumption of some awfully sour grapes.

To have any hope of winning the West the Rangers must play much, much better than they have thus far, plus Oakland and Anaheim must backslide. Does their history provide any guidance as to the likeliness of these events ? Have the Rangers ever finished the season on a tear that belied their previous 120+ games?

To answer this question, I used Baseball-Reference.com to find the Rangers winning percentage during the last 33 games of every season (except strike-shortened 1981 and 1994). I then compared them to the winning percentages during the rest of the season (the first 111 to 129 games depending on season).

During their last 33 games, the Rangers have rarely over- or under-performed relative to their existing record. Only six times in 32 years has their final-33 winning percentage strayed from their existing percentage by more than .100. Usually, they maintain the status quo.

Top Three Improvements Over Final 33 Games

Year   First Games   Final 33 Games   Win % Difference
1978   65-64 .504      22-11 .633          +.163
1979   62-67 .481      21-12 .636          +.155
1977   72-57 .558      22-11 .667          +.109

Bottom Three Improvements Over Final 33 Games

Year   First Games   Final 33 Games   Win % Difference
1972    48-73 .397      6-27 .182          -.215
2003    60-69 .465     11-22 .333          -.132
1988    59-69 .461     11-22 .333          -.128

The 1978 season is a fine analog for the present situation. After August 28, 1978, the top three teams in the AL West ranked as follows:

KAN  70-59  ----
CAL  70-62  -1.5
TEX  65-64  -5.0

Ah yes, a Ranger team hovering around .500 with two teams to catch in just over a month. Texas would win 22 of its final 33 games to finish 87-75. Unfortunately, Kansas City also finished the season 22-11, and Texas didn’t gain a single game on the division winner. In fact, Texas was never closer than five games from first. The Rangers floundered to 72-73 before winning fifteen of their last seventeen.

The 1979 Rangers gained four games on the division leader during the final 33 games, but they were nine games out at the time, and the strong finish only served to push them just over .500. The 1977 edition was the best in Ranger history until 1999. Its 22-11 finish resulted in four games lost in the standings to the Royals, which ended a white-hot 27-8.

The gloomy conclusions to this exercise: 1) After 129 games, we have a pretty firm idea of the quality of a team. Logically and empirically, Texas is most likely to continue playing at or near its current pace. 2) Winning isn’t enough. Texas needs an Athletic catastrophe that will haunt its fans for years to come.

The faint silver lining is that, based on history, the Rangers’ chances of collapsing are small. They have never ended a season below .500 when they had a winning record with 33 games to play, and they have never lost more than 18 of their last 33 in such a situation.

As to their playoff hopes this season, frankly, I think the Rangers are meat on a stick, batter-dipped, deep-fried, chewed up, swallowed, and slowly digesting inside the stomach of a twelve-year-old at Tropicana Field. But that doesn’t mean I won’t watch, and hope.

Posted by Lucas at 03:01 PM

August 20, 2006

Unknown Pleasures -- The Hitters, #3-#5

Fourth in a series on Rangers who provided unexpected help with their bats for a season. Hitters 16-20 are here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here.

5. Geno Petralli, catcher, 1987

Span	Plate Apps.	Average	On-Base	Slugging	Runs	Homers	RBI	Season OPS+
Season (9th)	232	.302	.388	.480	28	7	31	129
Career (13 yrs)	2131	.267	.344	.360	184	24	192	95

Toronto selected nineteen-year-old Geno Petralli in the third round of the 1978 draft. Beginning in 1982, he briefly appeared as a Blue Jay over three seasons but couldn’t supplant Ernie Whitt or even establish himself as a backup. Toronto sold his contract in 1984 to Cleveland , which dumped him altogether the next April. On May 17, 1985 , Petralli gulped hard, said a little prayer, and signed with the 9-24 Texas Rangers. He soon took over backup catcher duties, a role he would fill for almost all of his career.

Though Petralli now had a regular job, he continued to struggle at the plate. Through 1986, Petralli had a career line of .271/.312/.358, good for an OPS+ of 80. Noted for his patience in the minors, he had walked only once per eighteen plate appearances in the Majors. He entered 1987 as Don Slaught’s caddy for the third consecutive season.

Out of nowhere, Petralli hit. He received only 42 plate appearances in the season’s first six weeks walked nine times and dispensed a startling line of .364/.500/.545. By season’s end, Petralli easily set personal records in runs, RBI, doubles, homers, average, OBP and slugging. He pinch-hit 36 times and also spotted at first, second, third and outfield. Petralli slugged .480 despite never having surpassed .420 at any level in nine years of professional ball, and in subsequent years he never exceeded .408.

Though popular among Ranger fans at the time, he is remembered elsewhere mostly for his misadventures with the glove. As knuckleballer Charlie Hough’s personal catcher, Petralli set Major League records for passed balls allowed in a season with 35 and in a game with 6. He also tied the record of four allowed in one inning.

4. Tom Grieve, outfielder, 1973

Span	Plate Apps.	Average	On-Base	Slugging	Runs	Homers	RBI	Season OPS+
Season (3rd)	136	.309	.348	.528	22	7	21	149
Career (9 yrs)	2093	.249	.316	.442	209	65	254	100

Washington selected Grieve out of high school with the sixth pick of the 1966 draft, four choices after Reggie Jackson (and five after Steve Chilcott). By 1969, he reached AAA, and in 1970 he grew into a power spike of thirteen homers in only 182 at-bats, though perhaps the AAA affiliate’s move from Buffalo to Denver helped. On that basis, Washington recalled him midway into the 1970 season. Grieve grounded to short against New York’s Fritz Peterson in his big-league debut. The next day, batting second in front of Frank Howard, he singled off Cleveland’s Sam McDowell for his first hit. Later that series, he belted his first homer and finished the day at .316/.350/.526.

Grieve batted only .175/.286/.309 the rest of the way and couldn’t force himself into Washington’s plans for 1971. He spent the entire season in Denver (playing only 93 games, so perhaps he was injured) while similarly aged outfielder Elliott Maddox and younger Jeff Burroughs spent much of the season in Washington. Grieve again reached the Majors for Texas in 1972 and again he struggled, batting .204/.271/.296. In 1973, 25 years old and in his seventh professional season, Grieve was relegated to defensive replacement and pinch running duties. Through the season’s first two months he earned only sixteen plate appearances, getting two singles and eight strikeouts.

Fortunately for Grieve, Texas sold outfielder Rico Carty to the Cubs, and only Burroughs was hitting well among the other outfielders. Given three consecutive starts in center in mid-July, he went 5-for-11 with two walks. Soon, Grieve earned semi-regular play and batted an astonishing .336/.390/.589 over the season’s final ten weeks. He hit seven homers in 107 at-bats during that span, by itself good for sixth-best on the team. For the 4,000 or so fans who attended a typical late-season game, Grieve offered a reason to cheer.

Grieve spent only one full season as an everyday player, hitting twenty homers and driving in 81 in 1976, and in 1977 he was part of an infamous four-team, twelve-player trade. By 1979 his on-field career had ended as a Cardinal. He rejoined the Rangers in 1981 in the front office, and within four years he became the general manager, a role he would hold for ten years. He then became an announcer for televised games and fulfills that role today. Thus, Grieve has worked for the Rangers and preceding Senators for 38 of the last 41 years.

3. Mike Simms, outfielder / first base / pinch hitter, 1998

Span	Plate Apps.	Average	On-Base	Slugging	Runs	Homers	RBI	Season OPS+
Season (8th)	215	.296	.381	.613	36	16	46	150
Career (9 yrs)	744	.247	.323	.464	92	36	121	108

Mike Simms began his career as a Houston Astro, a 6th-round pick in 1985. After two lackluster years in Rookie ball, Simms exploded for 39 homers at low-A Asheville. He would hit only a combined 36 during the subsequent two years in high-A and AA, but he did established himself as a decent prospect with above-average power and excellent patience. In 1990 he received a September call-up and struck out against Craig Lefferts in his MLB debut. Though he didn’t reach the plate again for a full week, he managed to single in the winning run in extra innings.

Simms couldn’t crack the lineup in 1991 and spent the first half of the season back in AAA. Given a month’s worth of starts in Houston later that year, he showed little beyond an ability to draw plenty of walks (.203/.301/.317). In 1992 he again resided in AAA for most of the season, and in 1993 he never left the minors. After transient assignments in San Diego , Pittsburgh and Cleveland , he returned to the Astros and spent the next three years frequent-flying between Houston and AAA Tucson. Only in 1995 (.256/.341/.512 in 138 plate appearances) did the results match his potential. Simms signed with Texas after 1996 when the Astros waived goodbye. In 1997, he subbed at several positions and, as usual, didn’t offer much at the plate beyond adequate power.

Entering 1998, age 31, Mike Simms had a career line of .227/.298/.405. While he made the Opening Day roster, Texas couldn’t have expected much. Simms quickly set the tone for his season by homering in his first game, a 20-4 rout of the White Sox. On May 19 th, Simms hit a three-run bomb off an allegedly invincible Randy Johnson to power a 10-4 rout. Though he endured a zero-for-29 stretch in late August, he delivered when needed most. Against division rivals, Simms batted a Bondsian .340/.419/.811 -- five singles, seven doubles, six homers, and six walks. Texas entered the final twelve games of the season one game behind Anaheim . Simms played in eight games and hit .333/.497/.722 with five runs scored and seven batted in. The Rangers finished 8-4, three games ahead of the Angels.

Along with fellow Unknown Pleasures Roberto Kelly (#14) Bill Haselman (#12) and Luis Alicea (#11), Simms helped to keep the Rangers in contention until reinforcements arrived to push them over the top. At the July 31st trading Deadline, Texas had a record of 57-51 and had outscored its opposition by only fourteen runs. On that day, GM Doug Melvin boldly released everyday shortstop Kevin Elster and traded for Todd Zeile, Royce Clayton and Todd Stottlemyre. Texas went 31-23 during the final two months to win the West and the right to play the 114-game-winning Yankees.

Sad to say, Simms could not parlay his terrific season into long-term success. 1998 was the first and only year in which Simms spent the entire season on a Major League roster. The following spring, a torn Achilles tendon forced him to the Disabled List for four months and he would spent more time on rehab assignment in Oklahoma than on the active roster. With Rafael Palmeiro serving as DH because of injury and Roberto Kelly serving very well as fourth outfielder, Texas had no room for Simms. He received only two late-season pinch-hit appearances in 1999, the last of his career, and did not make the postseason roster. In 2000, a degenerative hip forced him out of baseball at age 33.

Posted by Lucas at 10:27 PM

June 06, 2006

Texas Rangers 1st Round Draft Picks Still Playing Baseball

PLAYER (Overall pick, school, position)

2005
JOHN MAYBERRY (19, College, OF) –Batting .230/.320/.443 for low-A Clinton. 22 years old.

2004
TOM DIAMOND (10, College, SP) – Starting for AA Frisco in the Texas system, 11 starts, 3.88 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9, 11.3 SO/9.

ERIC HURLEY (30, High School, SP) – Starting for high-A Bakersfield in the Texas system, 11 starts, 2.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 9.1 SO/9.

2003
JOHN DANKS (9, High School, SP) – Starting for AA Frisco in the Texas system, 10 starts, 4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 11.7 SO/9.

2002
DREW MEYER (10, College, SS) – Made MLB debut for Texas in 2006, played sparingly. Batting .276/.308/.398 as utility man in AAA Oklahoma in the Texas system.

2001
MARK TEIXEIRA (5, College, 3B) – Debuted with Texas in 2003. Career MLB line of .284/.365/.533, 113 homers, 370 runs batted in. 26 years old.

2000
TYRELL GODWIN (35, College, OF) – Did not sign with Texas. Drafted in third round by Toronto, made MLB debut with Washington in 2005 as a Rule 5 draft selection. Only had three plate appearances. Currently in AAA New Orleans batting .237/.268/.392.

1999
COLBY LEWIS (38, Junior College, SP) – Pitched for Texas 2002-2004. Claimed on waivers by Detroit in 2005, now pitching for AAA Toledo.

1998
CARLOS PENA (10, College, 1B) – Debuted with Texas in 2001, traded to Oakland the following offseason, then to Detroit. Dumped by Detroit, signed with the Yankees. Batting .253/.387/.427 for AAA Columbus.

1997
JASON ROMANO (39, High School, 3B) – Debuted with Texas in 2002, traded to Colorado that season. Has also played for the Dodgers, Reds and Devil Rays in a utility role. Signed with Milwaukee in the offseason but has not appeared in a game in 2006.

1996
R.A. DICKEY (18, College, SP) – Pitched for Texas in 2001 and 2003-2006. Outrighted to AAA in 2006, has a 7.02 ERA in 42 innings while trying to refine his knuckleball.

COREY LEE (32, College, SP) – Pitched one inning for Texas in 1999. Bounced through Chicago (AL), Anaheim and LA (NL) systems during 2002-2005. Now pitches for the Nippon Ham Fighters.

1992
RICK HELLING (22, College, SP) – Debuted with Texas in 1994, pitched with Rangers from 1994-2001. Traded to Florida during 1996, traded back during 1997. Has also pitched for Arizona, Baltimore, Minnesota (in the minors) and Milwaukee. Has retired at least once. Currently pitches for Milwaukee, has been on Disabled List most of the season.

1991
BENJI GIL (19, High School, SS) – Debuted with Texas in 1993, played with Rangers 1993-1997. Also played for Anaheim in the Majors (2000-2003) and in the minors for Chicago (AL and NL), Florida, Cleveland, Detroit and New York (NL). Batting .383/.438/.605 for the Sultans de Monterrey in the Mexican League.

Posted by Lucas at 11:55 AM

June 02, 2006

The Real Season Begins

Life is good. Despite Wednesday's blowout loss, Texas leads the division by 3.5 games and is the only AL West club playing winning baseball. Baseball Prospectus offers a wonderful, daily Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, projecting records and each team’s probability of winning a division or wildcard. Depending on methodology used, BP predicts Texas has between a 67% and 73% chance of winning the division.

I wish I could believe it.

Now, I’m not a pessimist by nature (really) or some flake who derives happiness from failure. I do believe Texas has a respectable chance to win the West, but I wouldn’t concede a probability over 50%. Two reasons:

Oakland has a history of starting poorly and roaring to the finish.
Texas has a history of the opposite. Do they ever.

The Rangers’ annual summer swoon is no myth, no mordant function of selective memory. I wrote about several memorable post-All Star break collapses two years ago. That article only presented anecdotes, but deeper analysis confirms Texas’s history of collapse.

Longtime Ranger fans assuredly know that the franchise has a losing record over its 34-plus years in Arlington. What they may not know is that the team has a winning record through May 31st. The following chart shows the Rangers’ cumulative over/under as of every particular date of the season. For example, the Rangers have an all-time record of 114-100 on games played from the start of the season through April 15th, thus an over of 14 games. Through May 31st, Texas has an all-time record of 806-804 (+2). Afterwards, they’re skiing a blue slope:

Period	Record	Win %
3/30 - 5/31	806 - 804	.501
6/01 - 10/07	1790 - 1970	.476

The first two years in Arlington, when the team posted 100-loss seasons, tend to skew the data. Removing 1972 and 1973 gives Texas a winning record as late as July 14th. It also reveals a seven-week period of decay that has ruined many a season:

Period	Record	Win %
3/30 - 7/09	1336 - 1312	.505
7/10 - 8 / 31	793 - 911	.465
9/01 - 10/07	356 - 346	.507

The Rangers allegedly unburdened fans of those painful memories during the late 1990s, but 2004 (leading the division at the All Star Break, finished third) and 2005 (30-20 through May, 49-63 to finish) reopened old wounds. In 2006, Texas has the talent to win the division and a collection of young players who don’t know or care about history. Here’s hoping they aren’t doomed to repeat it.

Posted by Lucas at 06:32 PM

June 01, 2006

Mark Teixeira Interview

Baseball America's Alan Schwarz has a very interesting interview with Mark Teixeira about the personal aspects of the draft and dealing with scouts. Check it out.

Posted by Lucas at 08:01 PM

May 16, 2006

I Feel Sick

Prior to tonight, the Rangers had a record of 108-1 when scoring thirteen or more runs.

Guess who beat them?

The Rangers do have a perfect record of winning division titles during seasons when they lose despite scoring thirteen runs. So, good news!

Posted by Lucas at 10:17 PM

May 07, 2006

A Brief, Bitter, Regular Season History of Texas Versus New York

Texas has fared poorly in the postseason. Very, very, very poorly. However, I have no desire to unearth those fetid memories right now. Instead, why not dredge up some new ones by examining the regular-season history of the Rangers and Yankees?

1972-1986

During June 6-8, 1972, Texas played New York for the first time since leaving Washington and won two of three. That represents the high-water mark of the rivalry from Texas’s perspective. Texas played .370 ball against New York and was outscored by 152 runs in 173 games. Remarkably, the Rangers never won a season series over the Yankees during their first fifteen seasons in Arlington.

Wait, there’s more. Texas won fewer than one-third of its games against the New York during the 1970s (30-62). From August 19, 1972 through July 17, 1976, the Rangers lost 19 of 25 at home. They never won four consecutive games against the Yankees but had thirteen losing streaks of at least four games. Good times.

Era	Games				Season Series
Era	H/R	Wins	Losses	Pct	Won	Lost	Tied
'72-'86	All	64	109	.370	0	14	1
	Home	37	48	.435
	Road	27	61	.307

1987-1993

Texas’s one span of success coincided with the decline and fall of the Yankee dynasty. From 1989-1992, the Yankees had four consecutive losing seasons for the first (and only other) time since 1912-1915. New York gave the nation Stump Merrill, Alvaro Espinoza, Hensley Meulens, Pat Kelly, and Andy Hawkins, and the nation smirked.

In sharp contrast to the prior era, Texas never lost a season series to the Yankees during this period. The Rangers won 32 of 42 at home including an amazing fifteen consecutively from July 1989 to September 1991.

Era	Games				Season Series
Era	H/R	Wins	Losses	Pct	Won	Lost	Tied
'87-'93	All	51	32	.614	6	0	1
	Home	32	10	.762
	Road	19	22	.463

1994-Present

Despite producing the best teams in franchise history during the latter half of the 90s, Texas has largely abandoned any pretense of a rivalry since 1993. Texas won 14 and lost 21 to New York during its three division-winning seasons. Resuming its “location is nothing” premise, Texas has lost 21 of its last 31 at home during the 2000s. The Rangers currently sport an eight-game losing streak against New York, the longest in their history. In a week, they get a chance to halt that streak in the Bronx.

Era	Games				Season Series
Era	H/R	Wins	Losses	Pct	Won	Lost	Tied
'94-'06	All	45	75	.375	2	9	1
	Home	26	35	.426
	Road	19	40	.322

Overall

Era	Games				Season Series
Era	H/R	Wins	Losses	Pct	Won	Lost	Tied
All Time	All	160	216	.426	8	23	3
	Home	95	93	.505
	Road	65	123	.346

Posted by Lucas at 11:59 PM

April 23, 2006

Mahay Up, Rheinecker Down, Dickey Out

Texas added reliever RON MAHAY to the 40-man and active rosters, sent pitcher JOHN RHEINECKER to AAA Oklahoma, and designated pitcher R.A. DICKEY for assignment.

The Rangers outrighted Mahay last August, four months into a two-year contract. Now, Texas will allow Mahay to earn some of his guaranteed $1.1 million in Arlington instead of Oklahoma City. The tougher roster decision will occur when injured reliever Brian Shouse returns. Texas won’t keep four lefties in the bullpen, and among Mahay, Shouse, Fabio Castro and C.J. Wilson, only Wilson can be relegated to the minors without repercussions.

The mild surprise is the waiver of Dickey, when Texas could have placed Frank Francisco on the 60-day DL to open another roster spot. No team will claim him. The question is whether Dickey will elect to proffer his knucklebally goodness in the Ranger organization or sign elsewhere. His previous designation gives him the right to refuse his assignment. I think he’ll stay.

Posted by Lucas at 08:09 PM

April 19, 2006

Off-Day Blues?

Ranger radio broadcaster Victor Rojas said the following in his entertaining blog “The Spoils:”

Back to back series now the Rangers have lead off with a win...I don't exactly know what the numbers are, but as I recall over the last couple of years the Rangers never seemed to fare well in the first day back from an off-day...that's not the case so far.

Fortunately for Texas and unfortunately for Mr. Rojas, he’s wrong. During his tenure (2004-present) the Rangers have a record of 22-13 after a single day off:

11-5 in 2004
9-8 in 2005
2-0 in 2006

Texas did lose six of its last ten after a day off in 2005, so perhaps the recent pas

The Ranger Rundown

Texas Rangers baseball and more, by Scott Lucas