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February 02, 2011

What's A Decent First Baseman Worth?

During 2010, the scales tipped to Texas in the Mark Teixeira trade. In terms of Fangraphs wins above replacement (fWAR), the players acquired by Texas have amassed a career total of 8.8 fWAR, higher than Teixeira from the trade date through his final arbitration year of 2008 plus Ron Mahay's last two months before free agency, and at a dramatically lower cost:

That is not to say the trade was an unvarnished success. Texas has struggled mightily to replace Teixeira. Here's an annual review of who has played first since his departure, and how many wins Texas has forfeited by having who they've had versus a league-average 1B. (In the tables below, "Rest of League" equals the total production of American League 1Bs minus Texas's production. For each year, I've assumed Texas's and the average 1B received an equal number of plate appearances.)

2007 -- fWAR Deficit: 0.8 wins (post-Teixeira only, 57 games)

Who occupied first for the 46-59 Rangers in the waning days of 2007 didn't matter much. The remnants of Brad Wilkerson started the first post-Teixeira game at first base. He actually hit pretty well, sharply contrasting most of his dire two years in Arlington. Wilkerson shared the position with Frank Catalanotto, another ostensibly high-OBP 1B/COF/DH aging at an alarming rate, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Once upon a time, Saltalamacchia was believed to have a future as a respectable (if not elite) first baseman if catching didn't yield success. He shared home plate with Gerald Laird and played first on other days. Subsequent to 2007, he only caught.

The Rangers lacked a clear solution at first entering the offseason. Texas understandably wanted to groom Saltalamacchia as a catcher. Jason Botts, a hitter in the Wilkerson mode, had shown patience and occasional power but poor contact and defensive skills. Chris Davis ranked 65th among Baseball America's top 100 prospects after the season, but he'd barely reached AA.

2008 -- fWAR Deficit: 0.9 wins

"I don't want him coming to the park every day wondering if he's going to play against a left-hander. He's going to play against them until he proves he can't."

Ron Washington said that about Ben Broussard, of all people, acquired for minor-league utility man Tug Hulett during the winter. Broussard had managed a paltry .227/.290/.399 line against lefties (and hadn't hit them in the high minors, either), but Washington had faith. Broussard and company lurched to a 9-18 start that very nearly cost Washington his job. Texas would employ seven others at first after Broussard's mid-May release, the most of any post-Teixeira season.

Curiously, that was the season Texas's collective best imitated an average first baseman, batting .263/.327/.459 with 71 extra-base hits. Catalanotto hit for average, Chris Shelton drew a few walks, and Hank Blalock enjoyed a brief career renaissance. Most importantly, Chris Davis arrived.

Davis blasted through AA Frisco (.333/.376/.618) and AAA Oklahoma City (.333/.402/.685) before receiving the call on June 26th, and he homered in ten of his first 24 MLB starts. Davis switched to third when Blalock returned from injury, but his future was at first. Seasons of 40 homers were foretold. Barely a year after the Teixeira trade, Texas had its permanent replacement.

2009 -- fWAR Deficit: 4.5 wins!!!

Or not. From Opening Day, Davis's shortcomings -- impatience, a gaping hole in his swing --immediately overwhelmed his positive attributes. I remember a Sunday afternoon D/FW sports-talk host suggesting Texas replace Davis with Justin Smoak on April 12th, a mere six days into the season. Smoak had just made his AA debut. The idea was short-sighted, preposterous, rabble-rousing... but Davis never improved. The front office displayed admirable patience, more so than I would have shown (and I'm the patient type), but finally demoted him to AAA in early July and shifted Blalock from DH. Blalock was equally brutal.

How brutal? During the wild-card era (1994-present), 449 players have attained 400 plate appearances while playing at least half of their PAs at first base. Of those 449, Hank Blalock has the worst on-base percentage, .277. Chris Davis's .284 is third worst. Again: two of the three worst OBPs by a first basemen during the last 17 years belong to Rangers and occurred in the same season. Also, Texas 1Bs drew a meager 40 walks against 217 strikeouts.

Davis returned after six weeks and was productive (.308/.338/.496), if still very unwilling to take a pitch. Still, he showed enough to maintain his loose grasp on the starting 1B job heading into 2010.

2010 -- fWAR Deficit: 2.7 wins

The Rangers ceased being patient after 2009, gearing winter and early-season transactions toward making the postseason and subsequent moves toward a deep October run. In April, Texas flipped the roles of Frank Francisco and Neftali Feliz, replaced both of its catchers, and again demoted Davis, who no longer evinced the power that slightly mitigated his dreadful on-base percentage. Although Justin Smoak wasn't ready for the Majors when his made his late-April debut, Texas's immediate priority was finding enough production to get by. Smoak did at least reach base more often than the typical shortstop or catcher, but he looked overmatched at times and didn't inspire confidence in terms of October at-bats. Now, he's a Mariner.

As for those appearing briefly, Ryan Garko was a cipher (and I loved that waiver claim at the time), Jorge Cantu played himself out of a platoon/pinch-hit role, and... don't make me write anything more about Joaquin Arias.

Aside from Smoak's walks, what prevented another 2009 was Mitchell Moreland, a reasonably well regarded but largely unheralded 1B/RF drafted in 2007's 17th round. The rookie's studious approach yielded results akin to a slightly better-than-average 1B.

2007-2010 -- TOTAL fWAR DEFICIT: 9.0

The difference in value between an average American League 1B and what Texas has trotted out is nine wins in the last three-plus years. Perhaps Davis and company have provided better-than-average defense during that time, but even the best 1B gloves aren't worth more than about one win per season.

Not coincidentally, Texas 1Bs have rarely batted in the heart of the order. From mid-2004 until he was traded, Mark Teixeira batted third or fourth. In 543 games since then, only seven times has Ron Washington penned a 1B's name into one of those slots.

2011

Despite the displacement of Michael Young and acquisition of Mike Napoli, management has proclaimed Moreland Texas's primary first baseman. Young and Napoli will spot Moreland against lefties. Nobody is predicting a league homer title for Moreland as with Davis prior to 2009, but he is expected to be competent. The good news is that, should he falter, neither Young nor Napoli is helpless against them.

Regardless of how the at-bats are apportioned, the Moreland/Young/Napoli hydra should almost certainly resemble an average first basemen, something the Rangers haven't enjoyed in several years. Losing Cliff Lee definitely stung, but simply having an acceptable bat at first base is worth about half of a full season of Lee. Better to have both, of course, but the point is that Texas has the wherewithal to compensate at least partially for his departure.

Uncle Tupelo, "Looking For A Way Out," from Still Feel Gone, 1991

Posted by Lucas at February 2, 2011 01:58 AM