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December 20, 2005

Ugh.

Texas traded pitcher CHRIS YOUNG, first baseman ADRIAN GONZALEZ, and outfielder TERRMEL SLEDGE for pitcher ADAM EATON, reliever AKINORI OTSUKA and catcher BILLY KILLIAN.

At best a lateral move in the short run, possibly a terrible move in the long run. Both Eaton and Otsuka are free agents after 2006, Eaton will earn in excess of $4 million, and he almost certainly won’t resign with Texas. Meanwhile, Young, Gonzalez and Sledge are company property and inexpensive for the next several years.

Two weeks ago with rumours bounding, Eaton expressed mixed feelings about pitching in Arlington: “It's not conducive to my style of pitching; I'm a fly-ball pitcher. If I was to stay there, it'd have to be for crazy money. Granted, that is an offense that's going to put up some runs. You could take a Coors Field approach to the game." Texas isn’t Coors Field, but the well-spoken Eaton nailed the disconnection between his pitching style and The Ballpark. Petco Park and its predecessor kill fly balls, whereas The Ballpark propels them into the ionosphere.

Eaton has a career ERA of 4.56 and a WHIP of 1.40 outside San Diego, so what would he look like in Ranger blue? I’ve translated his last three seasons based on one-year park factors and assuming he’d face the same number of batters. The CERA in the table stands for Component ERA, a Bill James invention that predicts ERA based on peripheral stats (my formula varies slightly from his). The stats with San Diego are Eaton's actual numbers, the stats with Texas are translations:

Team
Year
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA
ERA+
CERA
CERA+
WHIP
SDG 2003
183
173
83
20
68
146
4.08
97
3.83
103
1.32
TEX 2003
178
187
94
25
69
134
---
---
4.77
104
1.43
SDG 2004
199
204
102
28
52
153
4.61
87
3.99
101
1.28
TEX 2004
193
220
106
35
54
144
---
---
4.95
102
1.42
SDG 2005
129
140
61
14
44
100
4.27
90
4.53
85
1.43
TEX 2005
126
150
75
19
41
86
---
---
5.34
84
1.51

As a Ranger, Eaton might have posted ERAs between 4.77 and 5.34 during the last three years. Moving from Petco to The Ballpark adds about 0.90 to his ERA. He would have allowed 40 additional baserunners including 17 additional home runs in Texas. During the last five years Eaton never finished with an above-average ERA+ in a park tailored to his skill set, so why would he do so in The Ballpark? After the Park fiasco, I’m assuming Ranger management isn’t so daft as to ignore park factors. So, what gives? Does management believe Eaton’s present performance level justifies the trade, or do they believe that in Ranger hands he’ll progress to the status of a #1 or #2 starter? Either supposition makes me queasy.

San Diego led off the NLDS against St. Louis with Jake Peavy, Pedro Astacio and Woody Williams. Eaton would have pitched Game Four had the Pads not been swept, but what does it say when rampant mediocrities like Astacio and Williams rank higher than him on the pecking order?

As for the starting pitcher moving the other way, Chris Young is a year younger than Eaton and signed for $1.1 million over the next two years followed by three years of arbitration-eligibility. Young struggled as summer waxed but still finished his rookie season with a WARP of 4.8, better than Eaton’s career-high of 4.6. As to how Young’s 2004-2005 translate to Petco Park:

Team
Year
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA
ERA+
CERA
CERA+
WHIP
TEX 2004
36
36
19
7
10
27
4.71
107
3.80
133
1.27
SDG 2004
37
33
12
6
10
29
---
---
2.96
135
1.14
TEX 2005
165
162
78
19
45
137
4.26
105
3.66
123
1.26
SDG 2005
168
150
57
14
48
159
---
---
3.05
126
1.18

Yes, the extreme difference in parks makes direct comparisons troublesome, but, come next July, if Eaton has a 4.75 ERA and Young’s hovers in the low threes, Ranger fans will howl. And they should.

Adrian Gonzalez has yet to display his talents to full advantage in the Majors, but his Age-23 season in pitcher-friendly Oklahoma (.338/.399/.561) indicates he warrants a full-time job. Gonzalez arrived in 2003 with Ryan Snare and Will Smith in exchange for Ugueth Urbina. Texas surprisingly gave him a part-time DH role to start the season but seemed to sour on him within just two weeks, and he spent most of the next four months in AAA. He didn’t hit well upon his return, though he remained the top hitting prospect in the system going into the offseason. With plenty of 1B/DH types around, his departure was virtually guaranteed. It’s a shame Texas didn’t get more for him.

Otsuka keeps the ball on the ground and won’t suffer as much damage moving to Arlington. He struggled with his control last year and allowed a frightful 6.92 ERA on the road. For whatever reason, most of the damage came in a few games at Bank One Ballpark (six appearances, four losses, 1.1 innings pitched, 11 runs allowed). He had a 2.02 ERA everywhere else. Otsuka represents a substantial addition to the bullpen at a considerable discount ($1.75 million) from the crazy-money teams are throwing at middle relievers. I’m pretty sure he’s a free agent after next year.

I know squat about Billy Killian beyond his strong Irish heritage. San Diego drafted him out of high school 72nd overall in 2004, and Baseball America rated him the Pads’ #14 prospect. He spent most of 2005 in extended Spring Training. I suppose Texas will stick him in short-season Spokane or low-A Clinton.

Terrmel Sledge, we hardly knew ye. Sledge is a pot sweetener, perhaps not good enough for everyday play but definitely a solid fourth outfielder. I’d hoped to see what he could do in Texas, but no matter. His departure pales in comparison to his teammates.

Posted by Lucas at December 20, 2005 08:20 PM