The Ranger Rundown

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November 27, 2006

Ex-Rangers Strike Gold

Teams have already guaranteed almost $200 million to five Ranger free agents. The contracts of these five and the unsigned Vicente Padilla should approximate what Texas dropped on Alex Rodriguez before 2001. Numbers in italics are guesstimates on my part.

Player	Team	Bonus	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	Total Guaranteed	Cumulative Incentives /Options
R. Barajas	TOR	-	3.000	3.000	-	-	-	-	6.000	-
M. DeRosa	CHC	-	3.750	3.750	5.500	-	-	-	13.000	-
A. Eaton	PHI	1.000	6.875	7.635	8.500	0.500	-	-	24.510	8.500
C. Lee	HOU	3.000	11.000	12.000	18.500	18.500	18.500	18.500	100.000	-
G. Matthews	LAA	-	10.000	10.000	10.000	10.000	10.000	-	50.000	-
ALL	-	4.000	34.625	36.385	42.500	29.000	28.500	18.500	193.510	8.500

Even in light of the New Baseball Economy (Nov 2006 - ?), none of these contracts appeals to me.

Posted by Lucas at 06:52 PM

November 25, 2006

Summary of Ranger Hitters By Position in Batting Order

Here’s a summary of the information presented throughout the last month. For what it’s worth, I use a two-year park factor and apply two-thirds of the weight to the most recent season. The Ballpark hasn’t been as crazily hitter-friendly during 2005-2006 as it prior years. The factors are:

Average: 1.005
On-Base %: 1.005
Slugging: 1.020

The Ballpark has a Runs factor of 1.037.

That “L� in front of OPS+ and other stats means “lineup;� it calculates how Rangers perform relative to other players in the league at a particular spot in the batting order. Also, keep in mind that if you divide the team’s OPS by the league-average OPS, you will not derive OPS+. OPS+ is calculated by adding OBP+ and SLG+, then subtracting 100 (which is why, as you’ve probably noticed, some really terrible hitters have a negative OPS+).

Order	Park-Adjusted League-Average (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	Texas Rangers (AVG/OBP/SLG -- OPS)	L-AVG+	AL Rank	L-OBP+	AL Rank	L-SLG+	AL Rank	L-OPS+	AL Rank
1	.285/.351/.431 -- .782	.304/.361/.489 -- .850	107	3	103	5	114	3	116	4
2	.288/.346/.431 -- .777	.310/.356/.442 -- .798	108	2	103	5	103	6	105	6
3	.283/.358/.482 -- .840	.283/.351/.481 -- .832	100	5	98	7	100	7	98	7
4	.288/.369/.510 -- .878	.273/.360/.477 -- .837	95	10	98	9	94	12	91	10
5	.287/.359/.490 -- .849	.292/.348/.442 -- .790	102	6	97	10	90	12	87	11
6	.267/.325/.446 -- .772	.259/.314/.423 -- .737	97	10	97	9	95	10	91	10
7	.270/.324/.438 -- .762	.260/.324/.432 -- .756	96	9	100	6	99	9	99	9
8	.260/.322/.400 -- .721	.242/.308/.375 -- .683	93	12	96	10	94	11	90	12
9	.252/.304/.376 -- .681	.261/.310/.439 -- .749	104	6	102	6	117	3	119	3
ALL	.276/.341/.446 -- .787	.278/.338/.446 -- .784	101	8	99	9	100	7	99	8

Posted by Lucas at 06:12 PM

November 22, 2006

Keltner Test: Juan Gonzalez

The Keltner Test is a Bill James creation designed to test whether a player merits selection into the Hall of Fame. I've never seen a test on Juan Gonzalez, so here goes:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

I can’t find an example of anyone stating that Juan Gonzalez was ever the best player in baseball. Maybe, maybe, during July of 1998 when Gonzalez achieved 100 RBI by the All-Star break, someone gushed that he was the best player in the game. Otherwise, nope.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

I intend to answer these questions without using many derived statistics, but in this case the stats offer an interesting perspective. According to both WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player, a Baseball Prospectus stat) and Bill James’s Win Shares, Gonzalez was never clearly the best player on his team. Except for a first-place tie in Win Shares with Rafael Palmeiro in 1993, he never surpassed bridesmaid status. (Note that for obvious reasons I’ve excluded his tryouts of 1989 and 1990 and his post-2001 meltdown.)

Year	Team	WARP3	Team Rank	Team Best	Win Shares	Team Rank	Team Best
1991	TEX	6.0	6	Palmeiro	19	4	Franco, Sierra
1992	TEX	7.9	3	K Brown	19	2	Palmeiro
1993	TEX	10.0	2	Palmeiro	31	T1	JG, Palmeiro
1994	TEX	6.3	T4	I Rodriguez	11	5	Clark
1995	TEX	3.7	10	Rogers	8	11	Rogers
1996	TEX	6.2	T5	K Hill	21	3	I Rodriguez
1997	TEX	5.6	4	I Rodriguez	19	3	I Rodriguez
1998	TEX	8.1	2	I Rodriguez	25	2	I Rodriguez
1999	TEX	7.4	3	I Rodriguez	24	3	Palmeiro
2000	DET	3.0	10	Higginson	9	11	Higginson
2001	CLE	8.6	2	R Alomar	23	3	R Alomar

Surprisingly, Gonzalez was rarely even the best hitter on his team. His predilection to swing at everything usually stranded him behind more patient hitters in terms of Equivalent Runs (another Baseball Prospectus creation):

Year	Team	Equivalent Runs	Team Rank	Team Best
1991	TEX	80	4	Palmeiro, 123
1992	TEX	91	2	Palmeiro, 92
1993	TEX	114	2	Palmeiro, 122
1994	TEX	64	3	Canseco, 90
1995	TEX	64	5	Tettleton, 91
1996	TEX	117	1	Gonzalez
1997	TEX	99	2	Greer, 119
1998	TEX	129	1	Gonzalez
1999	TEX	118	2	Palmeiro, 138
2000	DET	72	5	Higginson, 117
2001	CLE	110	3	Alomar, 130

Despite this evidence, I believe the answer to this question is more “yes” than “no.” During eleven years as an everyday player, he finished among the top three in WARP six times, in Win Shares seven times, and Equivalent Runs eight times. If I hear someone say that Gonzalez was the best player in Texas during the 1990s, I don’t agree (it’s Ivan Rodriguez), but I also don’t question that person’s faculties. It’s not an unreasonable belief.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

No and no. Barry Bonds, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Larry Walker, and Gary Sheffield come immediately to mind as superior corner outfielders during the 1990s. There are others.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Yes. In 1998, Texas trailed California by 3.5 games with only twenty remaining. Texas finished 13-7 with help from Gonzalez’s line of .364/.417/.688. During a critical three-game series in Anaheim in which the teams were tied entering the season’s final week, Gonzalez had a homer, two doubles, a single, and four walks(!). Texas swept the series and won the division.

Texas didn’t face much of a threat for the division title in 1999, but Gonzalez did bat .392/.433/.741 during September and October. He hit three homers and drove in seven during a series with Oakland that clinched the division.

In 2001, Cleveland won the AL Central by six games largely by taking fourteen of nineteen from chief rival Minnesota. Gonzalez batted .361/.397/.639 against the Twins.

Gonzalez played and lost in four divisional series. In 1996 he nearly won the series by himself, batting .438 with five homers and nine RBI in four games. In 1998 and 1999, he and his teammates left their bats in storage. In 2001, he again hit well for Cleveland (.348 with three doubles and two homers against the 116-46 Mariners).

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Surely you jest. Gonzalez has played in only 186 games since turning 32. He finished four consecutive seasons on the Disabled List and hasn’t played a Major League game in August or September since 2001. In 2006 he toiled for the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

He’s not better than Bert Blyleven, so “no.” The Evanses (Darrell and Dwight) are more deserving, as is Ron Santo. There’s a quick four without including his contemporaries.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Only four of Gonzalez’s most similar batters (per Baseball Reference) are Hall-eligible. Of those four, Johnny Mize and Duke Snider are in, and the Defiant Ones, Albert Belle and Dick Allen, are not. Of the others – Carlos Delgado, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Moises Alou, Jose Canseco and Jim Edmonds – only Ramirez seems Hall-worthy at the moment. Those who continue to play and burnish their Hall credentials will become less comparable to Gonzalez, and other, lesser players will take their places.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

In some respects, yes, superficially. Throw Gonzalez in the Hall and he’d rank 21st in homers, 41st in extra-base hits, 44th in RBI and 9th in slugging percentage among the 137 HOF hitters with at least 4,000 at-bats. Impressive.

Unfortunately, Gonzalez suffers terribly in consideration of the hitter-friendly era in which he’s played. Though Gonzalez would rank 21st in homers among Hall members, he presently ranks only 36th all-time. Fourteen active or recently retired players have more homers (the distant retiree being Dave Kingman). Likewise, Gonzalez’s .561 slugging percentage bests all but eight Hall-of-Famers but ranks only 21st all-time. All of the other higher-slugging players are contemporaries.

Of Bill James’s four quick-and-easy statistical tests of Hall-of-Fame worthiness – Black Ink, Grey Ink, Hall of Fame Standards and Hall of Fame Monitor – Gonzalez falls short in three of them.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Gonzalez played mostly during an extremely hitter-friendly era and largely in favorable parks. Park effects have crept into the public consciousness to the extent that even some BBWAA members are aware of them. Voters will understand in general that the hitting climate bolstered his numbers.

Was Gonzalez a better defensive player than commonly perceived? He did spend most of his first four years in center field. My recollection is vague, but the evidence suggests he played center only because of a lack of decent-hitting alternatives. Gonzalez was the One-Eyed King amongst blind outfielders Ruben Sierra, Kevin Reimer, and Dean Palmer, and he could outhit centerfielder Gary Pettis one-handed. During 1991-1992, he started 204 games in center but was replaced or moved to a corner in 70 of those games. After two years in left, he occupied right field for the rest of his career.

Gonzalez didn’t have much range and certainly was disinclined to sacrifice his body to catch a ball. He had a very strong and pretty accurate arm. He started about one-fifth of his 1,689 games at DH, probably fewer than most people think. Also, he never descended to full-time DH and laughingstock like Jose Canseco and was never as hopeless as Manny Ramirez. Yes, that’s awfully faint praise, but I believe it’s worth noting that Gonzalez’s fielding was only garden-variety bad, not outright terrible.

That said, my perception of his defense does not nearly compensate for the era’s and parks’ effects on his offense.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Gonzalez isn’t eligible yet, so let’s consider him in terms of his corner-outfield contemporaries. The answer is clearly no. Barry Bonds, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero, Larry Walker, Gary Sheffield, and several others were/are better players.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Gonzalez won two MVP awards. He deserved them about as much as 2006 winner Justin Morneau deserved his, which is to say, not at all. He wasn’t even the best hitter in the league, much less the best player, in 1996 or 1998. Nevertheless, the voters thought differently, so he gets full credit. He also finished fourth in 1993, arguably his best year in the Majors, ninth in 1997 and fifth in 2001.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Gonzalez played in only three All-Star games, an extraordinarily low number for a Hall-of-Famer. Among the ten most similar hitters according to Baseball Reference, Hall members or not, only 1B Carlos Delgado has played in fewer. Among the ten most similar hitters through his present age of 35, none has played in fewer. Gonzalez also had three or four additional seasons of All-Star quality.

However, having two MVPs and only three All-Star appearances is not without precedent. HOFer Robin Yount also only played in three All-Star games. Roger Maris played in four, Frank Thomas five.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

In his prime, Gonzalez was better than anyone on the ’06 Tigers or ’05 White Sox. His prime tended to ebb and flow over the years, and he was almost always fighting some nagging injury. Still, the answer is yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

No, no, not directly, and no. Regarding new equipment, Gonzalez did take a petulant stand against baggy pants during the 1999 Hall-of-Fame game. Three years later, the Collective Bargaining Agreement contained new regulations on uniform pants, one of which discourages bagginess. Coincidence? Alas, to this day, Gonzalez’s role in the creation of the “shame on baggy pants” rule remains unclear.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

I’ve avoided the subject of steroids to this point. Jose Canseco alleged that Gonzalez was a fellow user when they were teammates. In light of the lack of evidence, I’m assuming Gonzalez played clean (an assumption that automatically disqualifies me as a nationally syndicated journalist). Obviously, proof of PED-use will make this answer a resounding no.

That issue aside, while I think branding Gonzales “unsportsmanlike” or “of bad character” is overstating the case, he did have episodes of poor behavior. The baggy pants incident, publicly berating a scorekeeper for an unfavorable call, missing too many games with seemingly minor injuries, three divorces, and general moodiness have created an unfavorable, selfish image in the minds of most observers.

SUMMARY OF ANSWERS Absolutely HOF-worthy – 4, 11, 13 Generally Worthy – 2, 12 Generally Unworthy – 7, 8, 9, 15 Absolutely Unorthy – 1, 3, 5, 6, 10, 14

CONCLUSIONS

What might have been. Among all players through their Age 31 seasons, Gonzalez ranked eighth in homers (397) and seventh in runs batted in (1,282). His comparables included Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray and Duke Snider. Since then, he’s hit 37 homers and driven in 122, about a season’s worth of work.

As it currently stands, Gonzalez’s body of work leaves him short of the Hall of Fame. He was a brilliant player for several years, but he lacked the consistency and durability possessed by almost all Hall members. He’ll have to settle for being one of the best Rangers during their only extended period of success. No shame in that.

Posted by Lucas at 12:32 PM

November 20, 2006

Two added to Forty

Texas added pitchers A.J. MURRAY and ALEXI OGANDO to the 40-man roster.

Murray is a 19th-round pick from 2000 who spent most of the last three years in the trainer’s room. The Rangers have been very patient with him and must have liked what they saw during his stint in the Arizona Fall League. I’d guess that they start him in AA with a quick promotion to AAA upon quality performance. He’s yet to turn 25.

Texas nabbed Ogando in the 2005 minor-league Rule 5 draft. Like Omar Beltre, he hasn’t pitched in the US since 2004 because of visa problems.

Posted by Lucas at 08:49 PM

Little Cat Comes Home

Texas signed OF FRANK CATALANOTTO to a three-year contract for about $13 million with a fourth-year club option.

Catalanotto returns to Texas after four years in the Great White North. Little Cat has a career line of .297/.362/.454, and last year he drew a career-best 52 walks. Texas can place him atop the lineup if new manager Ron Washington can tolerate modest speed at leadoff. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit lefties, batting .221/.287/.331 against them during his four years in Toronto. He hits over .300 with mostly doubles power against righties.

Though considered a utility player, Cat honestly doesn’t have much utility in the field. The Dallas Morning News suggested he could fill in at second, but he hasn’t played there since 2002. From 2004-2006 he played 253 games in left field and one in right. That’s it. He’s not replacing Mark DeRosa.

Texas surrenders its first-round pick in 2007 by signing Type-A free agent Catalanotto. That’s a heavy price, but the Rangers aren’t done with the free-agent market and almost assuredly will sign another, similarly ranked player. With the many holes they needed to fill this offseason, losing that pick was a foregone conclusion.

Posted by Lucas at 08:41 AM

November 17, 2006

Weekend Photo

Oklahoma's Joaquin Arias batting, Round Rock's Hector Gimenez catching, 3 May 2006.

Posted by Lucas at 08:30 PM

Ojeda Signs

Texas signed catcher MIGUEL OJEDA to a one-year contract for $430,000, $300,000 of which is guaranteed.

Last winter, Texas threw some guaranteed money at John Wasdin and waived him anyway. Ojeda might receive the same fate. I agree with Rod Barajas’s departure, but that’s not to say that Ojeda inspires confidence even as a backup.

Ojeda signed with the Pirates in 1993 but spent all but a smidgen of 1995-2002 in Mexico. He’s a career .240/.308/.380 minor-league hitter and not considered better than adequate defensively. Should Gerald Laird falter, the Rangers cannot abide 80+ games of Ojeda’s bat. I hope they sign another catcher, and by that I don’t mean Ken Huckaby.

Posted by Lucas at 01:23 AM

November 14, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #8 and #9 Hitters

Good #8 and #9 hitters rarely exist for any length of time. Good hitters move to a higher spot in the order, bad ones stay there because the team has no worthy replacement. Catchers, rookies, subs and occasionally pitchers dominate the last two spots in the order. The average AL #8 hitter batted .259/.320/.392; #9s batted .250/.303/.369.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #8 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
R Barajas	23%	.529	47	.243	76	.286	72	15	3	15	8	21	0
I Kinsler	20%	.789	119	.358	111	.431	108	20	2	15	13	11	-3
G Laird	17%	.786	116	.330	103	.455	114	19	3	6	6	27	-2
B Wilkerson	13%	.520	46	.256	80	.264	66	4	1	9	9	27	0
M DeRosa	8%	1.159	219	.472	147	.688	172	11	1	10	4	9	1
J Botts	8%	.727	102	.327	102	.400	100	7	1	5	7	15	0
The Rest	12%	.466	31	.245	76	.221	55	6	0	8	6	15	0
TEAM	-	.682	90	.308	96	.375	94	82	11	68	53	125	-4
AL Average*	-	.721	-	.322	-	.400	-	74	13	71	48	111	0
Team Rank in AL	-	-	12	-	10	-	11	2	7	10	4	10	11

Texas #9 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
R Barajas	27%	.827	141	.333	109	.494	131	28	6	21	7	23	0
N Cruz	18%	.732	113	.296	97	.436	116	13	5	19	6	22	1
G Laird	13%	.859	149	.325	107	.534	142	15	3	9	4	13	1
I Kinsler	11%	.999	191	.408	134	.590	157	11	4	10	7	9	0
J Hairston	8%	.619	84	.308	101	.311	83	9	0	5	6	11	-1
D Jimenez	6%	.526	54	.235	77	.290	77	2	1	6	3	4	0
Pitchers	2%	.067	-78	.067	22	.000	0	0	0	0	0	7	0
The Rest	15%	.616	81	.267	88	.349	93	11	1	9	2	25	-2
TEAM	-	.750	119	.310	102	.439	117	89	20	79	35	114	-1
AL Average*	-	.681	-	.304	-	.376	-	70	11	62	39	112	1
Team Rank in AL	-	-	3	-	6	-	3	1	2	2	10	9	9

Largely because of Rod Barajas, Texas had lousy #8 hitting and fantastic #9 hitting. Barajas batted .188/.243/.286 in eighth and .295/.333/.494 in ninth. Imagine what he’d accomplish batting tenth, or twelfth. Ian Kinsler and Gerald Laird hit very well from both spots. Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz held their ground strictly in terms of where they batted (and ignoring their fielding positions). Ranger pitchers proved the mathematical possibility of a sub-zero OPS+.

American League #8 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Toronto	.837	132	.382	119	.455	113	78	11	64
Detroit	.809	127	.332	104	.476	124	81	25	84
Baltimore	.793	124	.374	117	.419	107	79	11	88
LA Angels	.765	117	.327	102	.439	114	86	18	77
Chicago Sox	.739	103	.301	93	.438	109	71	21	81
Oakland	.710	102	.330	104	.379	98	69	11	79
Boston	.704	98	.321	100	.383	98	76	13	76
Minnesota	.685	97	.325	103	.360	93	74	8	51
NY Yankees	.691	94	.305	96	.386	98	82	16	70
Seattle	.671	93	.309	97	.362	95	66	9	53
Cleveland	.670	91	.297	94	.374	98	75	12	76
Texas	.682	90	.308	96	.375	94	82	11	68
Kansas City	.616	71	.289	88	.327	82	51	10	79
Tampa Bay	.593	68	.283	88	.311	79	61	11	47

Best #8 Hitting: Toronto. Aaron Hill started an unusual 93 games in the #8 spot and batted .314/.383/.422. Eric Hinske, Jason Phillips, Alex Rios, Gregg Zaun, and household names like John Hattig and Adam Lind hit extraordinarily well in cameos.

Worst: Tampa Bay, which also had the worst #7 batters and next-to-worst #9 batters. Josh Paul was serviceable, the rest putrid (Tomas Perez, B.J. Upton, Damon Hollins and others).

American League #9 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Detroit	.772	130	.317	105	.456	126	84	19	75
Cleveland	.764	130	.326	109	.438	122	73	16	86
Texas	.750	119	.310	102	.439	117	89	20	79
Minnesota	.685	109	.330	111	.355	98	64	3	51
LA Angels	.688	108	.319	106	.369	102	61	7	68
Boston	.688	105	.312	103	.377	102	73	10	68
Seattle	.665	102	.288	96	.377	106	70	9	53
Chicago Sox	.683	99	.292	96	.391	104	72	21	63
Oakland	.648	95	.303	101	.345	95	60	10	54
Kansas City	.655	93	.309	100	.346	93	70	6	56
Baltimore	.646	93	.307	101	.339	92	63	8	60
NY Yankees	.642	93	.305	101	.337	91	75	8	57
Tampa Bay	.579	73	.267	88	.313	85	63	8	45
Toronto	.538	59	.255	84	.283	74	61	6	59

Best #9 Hitting: Detroit and Cleveland. Brandon Inge spent half the season batting ninth and produced a line of .278/.329/.509. Aaron Boone (.297/.348/.492) and Casey Blake (.356/.433/.533) seemed comfortable waiting for eight teammates to hit first.

Worst: Toronto. The NL’s Padres, Marlins and Reds had better #9 hitters than Toronto. John McDonald, Russ Adams, and Aaron Hill (in sharp contrast to his job at #8) were the primary culprits.

Posted by Lucas at 01:42 AM

November 12, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #7 Hitters

AL #7 hitters dropped off very little from #6s this season: .001 in on-base percentage and .008 in slugging. The difference is that teams rarely have “regular” #7 hitters. Only one team had a player with more than a half-season’s worth of starts batting seventh (Seattle with Kenji Johjima). Teams have enough trouble finding six quality hitters; Number 7 is usually the best of what’s left.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #7 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
B Wilkerson	25%	.817	115	.356	110	.460	105	29	6	13	18	49	-4
I Kinsler	19%	.875	129	.357	110	.518	118	18	5	19	9	19	6
M Stairs	13%	.637	67	.268	83	.368	84	6	3	11	5	20	0
K Mench	9%	.939	146	.393	121	.545	125	8	2	9	5	5	0
G Laird	8%	.637	69	.291	90	.346	79	8	0	5	1	12	2
M DeRosa	8%	.771	102	.327	101	.444	101	6	2	8	5	10	-2
R Barajas	7%	.936	144	.378	117	.558	127	5	2	4	2	6	0
The Rest	10%	.328	-11	.178	55	.150	34	5	0	1	4	19	0
TEAM	-	.755	99	.324	100	.432	99	85	20	70	49	140	2
AL Average*	-	.762	-	.324	-	.438	-	77	20	74	45	111	2
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	6	-	9	2	7	8	6	13	6

Seven Rangers hit from the #7 spot in at least ten games. After a disastrous week-plus leading off, Brad Wilkerson spent most of the next month batting seventh and hit pretty well. Ian Kinsler also hit well, batting seventh sparingly during the summer and more frequently in September. In briefer appearances, Kevin Mench and Rod Barajas performed well above average, and Mark DeRosa held the position.

On the downside, Matt Stairs occupied the seventh position almost exclusively during his brief stay in Texas and did little. Laird also didn’t hit much here, and “The Rest” – Adrian Brown, Laynce Nix, Hank Blalock, and several others – hit .117 in 60 at-bats.

American League #7 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Oakland	.868	133	.368	115	.500	118	91	27	89
NY Yankees	.858	129	.368	115	.489	114	83	22	99
Toronto	.830	117	.352	109	.478	108	83	24	69
Boston	.804	114	.346	107	.458	107	83	19	75
Baltimore	.768	103	.310	96	.457	107	82	24	65
Seattle	.738	101	.323	101	.415	100	72	17	69
Detroit	.750	100	.300	93	.450	107	85	30	94
Texas	.755	99	.324	100	.432	99	85	20	70
Minnesota	.736	99	.312	99	.424	100	73	20	84
Cleveland	.699	90	.313	98	.386	92	73	14	83
LA Angels	.685	85	.304	94	.381	91	71	14	58
Chicago Sox	.695	82	.291	90	.404	92	75	21	77
Kansas City	.687	81	.312	95	.375	86	69	9	63
Tampa Bay	.650	74	.291	90	.359	84	55	16	46

Best #7 hitting: Oakland should bat its whole team seventh. Nick Swisher (.333/.437/.686) and Dan Johnson (.295/.375/.538) compensated for the team’s terrible hitting in most of the order’s higher spots.

Worst: Tampa Bay. First baseman Travis Lee batted .220/.308/.322 in 133 appearances. Damon Hollins, B.J. Upton, Josh Paul, Dionner Navarro and Greg Norton were worse. Only Toby Hall and Russ Branyan kept the spot becoming a black hole.

Posted by Lucas at 07:05 PM

November 10, 2006

Weekend Photo

Colby, Moose, and Cheyenne, 10 November 2006

Posted by Lucas at 06:06 PM

Ballpark News

You may have already seen this linked by Lone Star Ball, but if not, Joe Siegler has the rundown on parking costs, game-time changes, and "variable pricing" at The Ballpark next season.

Posted by Lucas at 08:12 AM

November 09, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #6 Hitters

The quality of American League lineups drops off sharply after the fifth hitter. #6 hitters lose 34 points of OBP and 43 of slugging to their #5 counterparts. On the whole, they have lackluster on-base skills and respectable power.

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #5 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
K Mench	35%	.781	102	.319	98	.462	104	24	10	39	13	27	1
M DeRosa	29%	.723	89	.320	98	.403	90	31	5	26	14	44	-4
I Kinsler	11%	.610	61	.286	88	.324	73	8	1	4	4	10	-1
B Wilkerson	11%	.928	136	.338	104	.590	132	16	6	16	9	22	2
H Blalock	7%	.442	17	.220	68	.222	50	4	1	5	3	15	0
The Rest	6%	.826	117	.382	117	.444	100	9	1	5	6	6	0
TEAM	-	.737	91	.314	97	.423	95	92	24	95	49	124	-2
AL Average*	-	.772	-	.325	-	.446	-	83	24	85	50	116	-2
Team Rank in AL	-	-	10	-	9	-	10	3	7	4	7	10	6

Kevin Mench embodied the perfectly average #6 hitter, batting .276/.319/.462. 2006 represented his final chance to step forward and make himself a permanent fixture in Texas, and in that respect he failed. The power came in one astonishing burst, seven homers in consecutive games during late April. In those games he batted .414/.414/.931, in his other 80 in Texas he hit only .271/.331/.364 with five homers. Still, purely in terms of other #6 hitters, he performed adequately overall.

Mark DeRosa spent much of the season’s second half and a plurality of his overall time batting sixth. DeRosa cooled off after the All-Star break, walking and homering with more frequency but losing 70 points of batting average and almost half of his rate of doubles. Despite the decline, his post-break line of .265/.333/.423 bettered his pre-2006 career of .262/.324/.380. Some team, not likely Texas, will pay him commensurately to his 2006 performance alone, not the prior years.

Ian Kinsler started twenty games in the #6 hole, mostly late in the season but never more than two games consecutively. For no particular reason, he hit much worse there than in the lineup’s final three spots. His overall line of .286/.347/.454 makes him a solid #2 and tolerable leadoff hitter. Brad Wilkerson shared the six spot with Kevin Mench from mid-May until mid-June and batted well. Hank Blalock often hit sixth against lefties during the second half. “Hank Blalock,” “lefties” and “second half” created a familiar toxic brew.

Texas failed to achieve league-average OBP or slugging from any of the #4, #5 or #6 spots.

American League #6 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	.880	134	.365	114	.515	121	98	29	110
Baltimore	.830	119	.358	110	.472	108	89	25	72
NY Yankees	.819	115	.342	106	.477	109	101	27	103
Minnesota	.806	114	.325	102	.482	112	91	35	111
Detroit	.792	109	.319	98	.474	110	87	30	95
Kansas City	.775	101	.338	102	.437	99	79	16	86
Boston	.758	101	.343	106	.415	95	86	18	81
LA Angels	.731	94	.306	95	.425	99	80	24	80
Tampa Bay	.740	93	.297	92	.442	101	64	27	77
Texas	.737	91	.314	97	.423	95	92	24	95
Oakland	.711	90	.315	98	.396	92	88	19	64
Chicago Sox	.721	86	.305	94	.416	93	76	22	86
Seattle	.671	81	.298	93	.373	88	69	20	69
Toronto	.686	79	.308	95	.378	84	64	13	61

Best #6 hitting: Cleveland. Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, Ron Beilliard, Casey Blake and several others combined for 29 homers and 110 RBI. Only Jhonny Peralta (.286/.348/.389) failed to supply the requisite power.

Worst: Toronto. The Jays had no choice but to dump the overly honest Shea Hillenbrand, but they did miss his bat. Hilly hit .297/.341/.431 in one-third of the team’s appearances from the #6 spot, while his teammates (Molina, Rios, Zaun, Hill, etc.) provided a lifeless .246/.295/.352 in 450 appearances.

Posted by Lucas at 07:28 PM

November 07, 2006

Texas Retains Mahay

Texas picked up the team option on reliever RON MAHAY.

Mahay’s had an odd tenure in Texas. After a couple of nice seasons, the Rangers signed him to a two-year contract with a team option for a third. Nine months later, they designated him for assignment and dumped him to AAA. The following April they re-instituted him on the 40 and active rosters, whereupon he pitched successfully, if not as well as during 2003-2004.

Mahay will earn $1.2 million next season and becomes a free agent afterwards. Already 35 and never more than a middle reliever, he won’t have suitors dumping wheelbarrows of cash at his feet next November, but he stands a good chance of earning very respectable money for another couple of years. More power to him.

Posted by Lucas at 12:57 AM

November 06, 2006

Texas Has A Manager

Texas hired Ron Washington as manager.

This managerial appointment was bound to be uncontroversial. Given the set of personality characteristics that distinguished Buck Showalter’s dismissal, the replacement was destined to be less authoritarian, more affable, more communicative, more a “player’s manager.� Ron’s not just your boss, he’s your pal, but he’s also no pushover. Who wouldn’t want to play for him?

I exaggerate, but you understand. After several years of machinations (never proven but always suspected) and increasingly bad vibes in the Ranger clubhouse and front office, Washington is a deep gulp of fresh air.

Can he manage? Beats me. Assessing experienced managers is tough enough, much less new hires. Informed fans can evaluate players reasonably well with numerical data and GMs with analyses of trades, free-agent signings, etc. Conversely, a fan’s assessment of a manager usually has to be personality-driven because managerial performance doesn’t translate to an easy number like ERA. Sure, managers can show their ineptness with ludicrous batting orders and pitching changes, but few are truly incompetent in those respects. At the moment, we have very little on which to base our opinions.

That said, Athletics players hold him in extremely high regard, their fans seem disappointed in his departure, and I would very much like for Texas to win a World Series at some point during my corporeal residence on Earth. So count me on board.

Posted by Lucas at 11:55 PM

November 04, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #5 Hitters

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #5 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
H Blalock	63%	.789	87	.345	96	.445	91	52	13	67	33	70	0
M DeRosa	26%	.834	99	.380	106	.454	93	18	3	23	15	28	1
K Mench	6%	.735	78	.370	103	.366	75	4	0	2	4	9	0
The Rest	5%	.628	42	.190	53	.438	89	4	2	6	0	8	0
TEAM	-	.789	87	.348	97	.442	90	78	18	98	52	115	1
AL Average*	-	.849	-	.359	-	.490	-	88	26	102	66	109	-1
Team Rank in AL	-	-	11	-	10	-	12	9	12	5	14	10	6

I could write all day about Hank Blalock and probably will soon. I’ll save most of it for the discussion of batters by defensive position. As with Michael Young, let’s review Blalock’s overall season line of .266/.325/.401 as if he’d spent the entire year in the same spot in the order:

Bat Pos.	L-OPS+	L-obp+	L-slg+
1	86	93	93
2	87	94	93
3	74	91	83
4	67	88	79
5	72	91	82
6	90	100	90
7	92	100	92
8	101	101	100
9	113	107	107

Hammerin’ Hank’s 2006 would have been a liability everywhere outside the bottom two spots in the order. Considering that he spent over 90% of the season batting fourth or fifth, the actual liability was pretty severe. He did perform best in the #5 spot, batting .290/.345/.445.

The one adequate Ranger in this slot was the unlikely Mark DeRosa, who batted fifth during much of June and usually only against lefties thereafter. Like Blalock he didn’t offer much power, but his terrific OBP (fueled by a .319 batting average) amply compensated. After Phil Nevin’s disposal, Kevin Mench spent a few games at fifth as a singles-and-walks machine. “The Rest” (mostly Nevin, one game each from Barajas, Laird and Kinsler) largely did not distinguish themselves.

American League #5 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Chicago Sox	1.002	133	.391	109	.610	124	103	45	140
NY Yankees	.934	124	.402	113	.532	110	98	33	141
Minnesota	.920	122	.375	107	.545	115	104	32	127
Detroit	.869	110	.382	107	.487	103	105	18	86
Toronto	.886	107	.354	99	.532	107	92	32	118
LA Angels	.849	105	.372	104	.476	101	88	27	92
Kansas City	.862	102	.365	100	.498	102	94	23	89
Cleveland	.806	96	.350	99	.456	97	93	20	98
Seattle	.801	95	.335	95	.466	100	76	30	94
Oakland	.782	90	.353	100	.430	91	78	22	88
Texas	.789	87	.348	97	.442	90	78	18	98
Tampa Bay	.780	85	.322	90	.458	95	69	28	87
Baltimore	.758	82	.330	92	.428	89	77	21	98
Boston	.683	65	.321	90	.362	76	76	14	75

Texas's closest neighbors in #5 batting were Oakland, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Once again, bad company.

Best #5 Hitting: The White Sox. Jermaine Dye batted .315/.380/.628 in just under 400 appearances, Paul Konerko helped, and A.J. Pierzynski (.365/.419/.552) and Joe Crede (.429/.448/.730!) were crazy-good in limited action.

Worst: Boston, easily and surprisingly. Trot Nixon (.278/.388/.400) got on base while accruing about 45% of the plate appearances. Everyone else – Varitek, Lowell, Youkilis, Pena, Hinske, Kapler – was staggeringly awful, combining to hit .195/.266/.324.

Posted by Lucas at 02:10 PM

November 01, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #4 Hitters

Check here for stat descriptions.

Texas #4 Hitters:

Player	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Net SB
M Teixeira	35%	.966	119	.396	107	.570	112	37	15	40	37	44	2
P Nevin	25%	.737	69	.326	88	.411	81	24	7	27	21	34	0
H Blalock	20%	.658	53	.317	86	.341	67	19	2	17	15	11	1
C Lee	18%	.929	111	.382	104	.547	107	18	6	20	12	14	4
The Rest	1%	.750	75	.375	102	.375	74	2	0	0	0	1	0
TEAM	-	.837	91	.360	98	.477	94	100	30	104	85	104	7
AL Average*	-	.879	-	.369	-	.510	-	100	32	117	78	124	0
Team Rank in AL	-	-	10	-	9	-	12	7	8	12	6	4	1

As I wrote back in May, Phil Nevin didn’t earn his cleanup at-bats so much as back into them: Texas wanted some return on its $10 million investment, he hit just well enough in Spring Training to get a chance to play regularly, and, if not him, it’s Blalock or Mench in the #4 spot. Five games after I noted that Texas’s OPS+ at cleanup had actually deteriorated from 2005’s league-worst performance, the Rangers replaced Nevin with Blalock.

Blalock was worse. On June 22nd, he and Nevin had combined to hit .232/.319/.380, good for a lineup-adjusted OPS+ of 62. Sixty-Two! Texas cleanup hitters were on pace for 20 homers and 97 RBI. That may not seem so terrible, but both figures would have ranked dead last in the AL had they held up.

Buck Showalter then moved Michael Young to third and Mark Teixeira to fourth, and Teixeira and Carlos Lee occupied the cleanup spot for the rest of the season. Both hit very well, combining for a .391 OBP, 21 homers and 60 RBI. Lee won’t play in Arlington next year but did his job with the bat and would make an ideal DH.

On the whole, Texas cleanup batters ranked between Baltimore and Tampa Bay in OPS+, not company they would willingly keep.

American League #4 Hitters:

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Boston	.984	127	.416	113	.567	114	105	39	123
Cleveland	.956	125	.411	113	.545	112	112	34	131
Chicago Sox	.971	120	.398	108	.573	112	117	40	130
LA Angels	.902	110	.373	102	.528	108	89	30	123
NY Yankees	.890	107	.389	107	.501	100	121	35	124
Oakland	.878	105	.372	102	.506	102	98	41	136
Toronto	.896	103	.368	100	.528	102	114	41	112
Seattle	.841	97	.344	95	.497	103	99	34	122
Baltimore	.832	93	.364	99	.468	94	79	22	98
Texas	.837	91	.360	98	.477	94	100	30	104
Tampa Bay	.824	90	.344	94	.480	96	88	29	100
Detroit	.805	87	.341	93	.464	95	85	26	113
Minnesota	.764	81	.337	94	.428	87	101	20	107
Kansas City	.755	71	.319	85	.436	86	94	24	113

Best #4 Hitting: Let Manny be Manny. Even with fourteen of his teammates combining to hit a lackluster .267/.337/.412 in 36 games, Boston’s cleanup hitters led the field. Cleveland (Hafner, Martinez, and some Garko) and Chicago (mostly Konerko, a little Thome and Dye) also excelled.

Worst: Royals in a landslide. Emil Brown, Mike Sweeney and Mark Teahen combined for just over one-half of Kansas City’s cleanup appearances and hit roughly equivalent to Texas (.283/.344/.495). The rest (Reggie Sanders, Matt Stairs, assorted flavors) hit .218/.290/.369. Keep in mind that Kaufmann Stadium played very generously to hitters this season.

Posted by Lucas at 06:11 PM

Prelude To Upcoming Reviews

For the second time in three years, Texas succeeded more in preventing runs than scoring them. This isn’t my opinion or statistical trickery. It is fact.

Not coincidentally, Texas had the second-worst collection of 4-5-6 hitters in the American League in 2006:

Rank	Team	OPS	L-OPS+	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+
12	Kansas City	.775	91	.341	95	.457	95
13	Texas	.737	90	.341	97	.447	93
14	Tampa Bay	.740	89	.321	92	.460	97

In recent years, the popular opinion of the Rangers as an offensive force has become embalmed, mummified, petrified and encased in amber. Just as some catchers ironically earn solid defensive reputations because they can’t hit, Ranger hitters are behemoths because of a lousy rotation.

It simply isn’t true. The Rangers need a bat just as badly as a #2 starter.

Posted by Lucas at 12:56 AM