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October 31, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #3 Hitters
Check here for stat descriptions.
Texas #3 Hitters:
Player | % of Team PA |
OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
Net SB |
M Teixeira | 64% |
.844 |
101 |
.358 |
100 |
.486 |
101 |
62 |
18 |
70 |
52 |
84 |
0 |
C Lee | 17% |
.861 |
104 |
.357 |
100 |
.504 |
105 |
24 |
3 |
15 |
8 |
12 |
3 |
M Young | 17% |
.725 |
73 |
.310 |
87 |
.415 |
86 |
13 |
3 |
18 |
9 |
22 |
1 |
The Rest | 1% |
1.500 |
247 |
.500 |
139 |
1.000 |
207 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
TEAM | - |
.832 |
98 |
.351 |
98 |
.481 |
100 |
100 |
25 |
105 |
69 |
119 |
4 |
AL Average* | - |
.840 |
- |
.358 |
- |
.482 |
- |
101 |
27 |
103 |
72 |
118 |
6 |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
7 |
- |
7 |
- |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
6 |
9 |
Through June 22nd, Mark Teixeira never left the third spot in the order. After that day’s game, he had six homers and a .425 slugging percentage. Buck Showalter dropped him to fourth, where he soon returned to his expected brilliance. He switched back to third in late August with no ill effects.
As I mentioned in a June 10th column, Teixeira inexplicably flailed against pitchers he faced for the first time in a game. That trend manifested itself even more strongly in the first inning. At the All-Star break, Teixeira batted .243/.317/.284 in the first inning, including no homers and exactly three runs batted in in 82 plate appearances. He did improve in the second half (an odd line of .250/.451/.444: nine hits and twelve walks) but still was nothing special. For the season, he hit .245/.368/.336 in the first and .290/.372/.552 in subsequent innings. He showed more patience in the first (0.35 more pitches per appearance and a 50% higher walk rate) but no power (a David Ecksteinian .091 ISO, two homers in 133 appearances).
Should Showalter have batted him seventh, or started Nevin or Stairs at first and substituted Teixeira in the second inning? Probably overkill. Teixeira had never exhibited this problem in previous years and most likely will return to normal in 2007. That said, it’s an issue worth watching.
Carlos Lee quietly performed to expectations with his bat but probably played his way out of a long-term contract with his passive defense and occasionally cavalier attitude. The Rangers gained no ground on Oakland or even themselves after his acquisition (51-52 pre-trade, 29-30 post).
Relative to his time in the #2 hole, Michael Young struggled while batting third during late June and most of July. It’s only coincidence; he’d often hit third in the past with no loss of performance.
American League #3 Hitters:
TEAM | OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Boston | 1.010 |
142 |
.404 |
113 |
.607 |
129 |
124 |
55 |
142 |
Chicago Sox | .976 |
131 |
.403 |
112 |
.573 |
119 |
136 |
44 |
123 |
Minnesota | .914 |
126 |
.423 |
121 |
.491 |
106 |
100 |
13 |
101 |
NY Yankees | .884 |
115 |
.393 |
111 |
.491 |
104 |
115 |
29 |
123 |
Toronto | .882 |
108 |
.355 |
100 |
.527 |
108 |
97 |
32 |
109 |
Cleveland | .820 |
102 |
.359 |
102 |
.461 |
100 |
108 |
29 |
104 |
Texas | .832 |
98 |
.351 |
98 |
.481 |
100 |
100 |
25 |
105 |
Baltimore | .781 |
89 |
.344 |
96 |
.437 |
93 |
103 |
22 |
93 |
Tampa Bay | .777 |
87 |
.332 |
93 |
.445 |
94 |
86 |
25 |
99 |
Kansas City | .779 |
86 |
.355 |
97 |
.425 |
89 |
91 |
15 |
91 |
LA Angels | .758 |
84 |
.319 |
90 |
.439 |
95 |
85 |
24 |
89 |
Seattle | .750 |
84 |
.319 |
90 |
.431 |
94 |
88 |
21 |
92 |
Oakland | .730 |
79 |
.331 |
94 |
.398 |
85 |
86 |
20 |
82 |
Detroit | .715 |
74 |
.304 |
85 |
.411 |
89 |
92 |
19 |
86 |
Best #3 hitting: David Ortiz. No commentary needed.
Worst #3 hitting: NLCS foes Detroit and Oakland anchor the list, proving that titles are won with productive outs, not power. Anyway, Ivan Rodriguez drew over half of his team’s #3 at-bats and showed he no longer belongs in the top half of the order even when batting .300. He, Dmitri Young, Marcus Thames, Craig Monroe and Sean Casey combined for a paltry 19 homers and 31 walks. The rest of the league averaged 27 homers and 76 walks. Oakland’s Milton Bradley handled the spot well but his teammates (mostly Chavez, Kotsay, Crosby[?]) hit .233 and slugged .346.
Posted by Lucas at 09:29 AM
October 27, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #2 Hitters
Check here for stat descriptions. Forgot to mention that "Net SB" equals SB - 2 x CS.
Texas #2 Hitters:
Player | % of Team PA |
OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
Net SB |
M Young | 82% |
.833 |
114 |
.365 |
105 |
.468 |
109 |
80 |
11 |
85 |
39 |
74 |
0 |
M DeRosa | 9% |
.753 |
94 |
.343 |
99 |
.410 |
95 |
7 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
10 |
0 |
I Kinsler | 7% |
.536 |
41 |
.291 |
84 |
.245 |
57 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
11 |
1 |
The Rest | 2% |
.543 |
43 |
.293 |
85 |
.250 |
58 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
TEAM | - |
.798 |
105 |
.356 |
103 |
.442 |
103 |
94 |
12 |
90 |
51 |
99 |
1 |
AL Average* | - |
.777 |
- |
.346 |
- |
.431 |
- |
103 |
15 |
83 |
56 |
103 |
3 |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
6 |
- |
5 |
- |
6 |
12 |
10 |
4 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
Michael Young lost 29 points of OBP and 54 of slugging in 2006 but still ranked among the best #2 hitters in the AL. Reviewing his last four years, 2005’s .331/.385/.513 may represent his peak, and Texas fans will have to tolerate something like .310/.355/.470 for the next couple of years. Should Young’s 2006 be indicative of his future, he doesn’t quite pan out relative to other #3 hitters. Here’s a fun table of how Young’s overall line (not just batting 2nd) of .314/.356/.459 measures up if he’d batted the entire season in a particular spot in the order:
Pos |
L-OPS+ |
L-obp+ |
L-slg+ |
1 |
108 |
101 |
107 |
2 |
109 |
103 |
106 |
3 |
95 |
99 |
95 |
4 |
87 |
97 |
90 |
5 |
93 |
99 |
94 |
6 |
112 |
109 |
103 |
7 |
115 |
110 |
105 |
8 |
126 |
111 |
115 |
9 |
139 |
117 |
122 |
The table doesn’t indicate the best spot in the lineup for Young (“A 139 L-OPS+ from the ninth spot? Let’s bat Young there!”) but it could suggest where he tops out. The table also doesn’t consider other personnel. If the Rangers don’t acquire a big bat to replace Carlos Lee, batting Young third and Teixeira fourth might be optimal (perhaps with Ian Kinsler occupying one of the top two spots).
Mark DeRosa filled the #2 slot adequately. Kinsler and a few others didn’t offer much.
American League #2 Hitters:
TEAM | OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
Toronto | .853 |
119 |
.372 |
108 |
.482 |
111 |
NY Yankees | .826 |
116 |
.381 |
111 |
.445 |
105 |
Seattle | .800 |
112 |
.329 |
96 |
.471 |
115 |
Texas | .798 |
105 |
.356 |
103 |
.442 |
103 |
Tampa Bay | .793 |
106 |
.330 |
96 |
.464 |
110 |
LA Angels | .783 |
107 |
.357 |
104 |
.426 |
103 |
Chicago Sox | .760 |
96 |
.349 |
101 |
.411 |
95 |
Kansas City | .758 |
94 |
.342 |
97 |
.416 |
97 |
Oakland | .756 |
99 |
.340 |
100 |
.416 |
100 |
Baltimore | .731 |
91 |
.331 |
96 |
.400 |
95 |
Detroit | .731 |
92 |
.326 |
95 |
.405 |
98 |
Minnesota | .726 |
94 |
.349 |
103 |
.377 |
91 |
Cleveland | .721 |
91 |
.326 |
96 |
.395 |
96 |
Boston | .700 |
84 |
.334 |
97 |
.366 |
87 |
Best #2 hitting: Toronto, with former Ranger Frank Catalanatto (.302/.377/.442 in 387 ABs) and Alex Rios (.368/.399/.674 in 144 ABs).
Worst #2 hitting: Red Sox #2 hitters scored an AL-worst 89 runs despite Ortiz and Ramirez batting behind them. Mark Loretta had minimal power but did reach base at a league-average rate (.291/.346/.369). His teammates hit .198/.232/.340 in 91 at-bats.
Posted by Lucas at 07:42 PM
Weekend Photo
Can you spot the bat? Gorman Cave, Colorado Bend State Park, 7 October 2006.
Posted by Lucas at 12:21 PM
October 26, 2006
Dear ESPN
It's the "Nippon Ham" Fighters, not the Nippon "Ham Fighters." Anyway, Nippon Ham won its first league championship since 1962, so congrats to once and present potential Rangers manager Trey Hillman.
Posted by Lucas at 10:51 AM
October 24, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #1 Hitters
Time to begin the Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters In Terms Of Lineup And Defensive Positions. As with last year, I’ll start with the #1 hitters.
First, a brief refresher on the stats. You know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.
For Texas’s #1 hitters, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other #1 hitters. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .284/.350/.422. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .351 and a slugging percentage of .431 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages.
Texas #1 Hitters:
Player | % of Team PA |
OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
Net SB |
G Matthews | 89% |
.868 |
121 |
.372 |
106 |
.496 |
115 |
102 |
19 |
79 |
58 |
98 |
-4 |
B Wilkerson | 5% |
.565 |
41 |
.190 |
54 |
.375 |
87 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
16 |
1 |
8 others | 6% |
.829 |
110 |
.341 |
97 |
.488 |
113 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
TEAM | - |
.849 |
116 |
.361 |
103 |
.489 |
114 |
115 |
23 |
90 |
62 |
121 |
-3 |
AL Average | - |
.782 |
- |
.351 |
- |
.431 |
- |
109 |
15 |
70 |
65 |
113 |
9 |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
4 |
- |
5 |
- |
3 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
With free agency looming, Gary Matthews guaranteed over $20 million in future dollars on top of the $2.8 million paid to him by Texas this season. That’s a nice six months. Matthews hit .313 with ample patience and plenty of power batting first for Texas.
To what extent Texas tries to keep him is one of the toughest offseason decisions I can recall. As a center fielder and leadoff hitter, Matthews provided solutions for two problems that have plagued the franchise since I walked to Butler Elementary in Garanimals. Texas has a chance to extend that solution for another three years or so. How nice would that be?
Alas, the downside:
- Matthews is 32 and more likely to decline than to improve or stand ground.
- Most of his amazing 2006 rests on an upsurge in batting average. Matthews hit .313 in ‘06 but only .250 in his previous 2,980 at-bats and never above .275 in any one season. Whereas power and patience are relatively stable from year to year, batting average is quite fickle. His three-year aggregate in Texas -- .285/.349/.468 – seems a more reasonable basis for the future than his ’06 performance.
- How good is his defense, really? Despite his stellar reputation built on several astonishing catches, Win Shares places him only in the middle of the pack among center fielders, and Baseball Prospectus takes an even dimmer view. I’m of the belief that he’s no worse than average defensively, but that’s just a belief. Maybe the highlight-reel catches are masking overall mediocrity. Still, among the potential problems with signing him to a long-term deal, defense ranks as the least worrisome.
Despite those caveats, it’s not unreasonable to expect Matthews to provide average leadoff-hitting and center-field defense during the next three years. Does that equal $8 million per season? When analyzed in a vacuum, no. Considering the thin free-agent market and Texas’s in-house alternatives… maybe yes. The amount of money Matthews eventually receives will almost certainly exceed his worth, but perhaps by a margin small enough as to be shrug-worthy.
Incidentally, in terms of WARP, Gary Matthews did not have the best season by a center fielder in Ranger history. That honor goes to Juan Gonzalez in 1992.
Brad Wilkerson began 2006 as leadoff hitter. His nightmarish tenure contained some of the most inept at-bats I’ve ever seen outside of my softball league. I believe that in 41 plate appearances he struck out 79 times. Wilkerson did right himself once deposited in the #6 or #7 slots until a lingering shoulder problem prematurely ended his season. He may yet find himself atop the Ranger order in 2007 pending full health and agreeable contract negotiations.
American League #1 Hitters:
TEAM | OPS |
L-OPS+ |
OBP |
L-OBP+ |
SLG |
L-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Cleveland | .916 |
140 |
.378 |
109 |
.538 |
130 |
137 |
29 |
78 |
NY Yankees | .848 |
119 |
.365 |
105 |
.483 |
114 |
132 |
25 |
91 |
Toronto | .852 |
117 |
.374 |
107 |
.478 |
110 |
118 |
21 |
87 |
Texas | .849 |
116 |
.361 |
103 |
.489 |
114 |
115 |
23 |
90 |
Tampa Bay | .816 |
110 |
.341 |
98 |
.475 |
112 |
114 |
25 |
69 |
Seattle | .782 |
108 |
.369 |
107 |
.413 |
101 |
112 |
9 |
49 |
Detroit | .765 |
100 |
.336 |
96 |
.429 |
104 |
99 |
20 |
73 |
Kansas City | .775 |
97 |
.351 |
98 |
.423 |
99 |
106 |
11 |
69 |
Boston | .742 |
93 |
.348 |
99 |
.394 |
93 |
108 |
16 |
71 |
Baltimore | .722 |
88 |
.335 |
96 |
.387 |
92 |
95 |
11 |
66 |
Minnesota | .694 |
84 |
.336 |
98 |
.358 |
86 |
94 |
8 |
55 |
Oakland | .685 |
81 |
.346 |
100 |
.339 |
81 |
99 |
3 |
54 |
Chicago Sox | .699 |
79 |
.332 |
94 |
.368 |
85 |
100 |
4 |
58 |
LA Angels | .661 |
74 |
.322 |
92 |
.338 |
82 |
98 |
5 |
67 |
Best #1 hitting: Cleveland by far and almost exclusively in the form of Grady Sizemore.
Worst: Los Angeles (Chone Figgins) and Chicago (mostly Scott Podsednik).
Posted by Lucas at 12:05 PM
October 16, 2006
Frivilous Announcement
I got married two years ago today. Yay, me.
Posted by Lucas at 06:55 PM
October 15, 2006
Minor League Review, Part 8: Oklahoma Redhawks Pitchers
About the league and park: Click here. Short version: The PCL isn’t much different than Major League Baseball. The Redhawks play in an extreme pitcher’s park.
About the pitchers: Redhawk pitchers might not have performed quite as well as you thought, given the park-adjusted RA of 4.36 and ERA of 3.83. Edinson Volquez rode a fantastic strikeout rate and an atrocious walk rate to a nice overall season. Last year, he walked only two per nine innings; this year, 5.4. I take comfort that he actually pitched a little better on the road than at home. On the other hand, his brief MLB tenure has been disastrous. I assume he’s already penciled into Oklahoma’s starting rotation for next April.
In terms of overall statistics, John Danks didn’t offer much beyond a terrific K rate in half a season in AAA, but for a 21-year-old it’s a nice start. Danks has always needed a half-season to learn the league, and he’ll need at least another half-season in AAA to master it. Put another way, I fail to sense any urgency to bring him to Arlington next April, regardless of the shape of the Ranger rotation. Better to see him make fools of AAA hitters for a while.
Interesting that both Volquez and Danks improve their control dramatically after the first inning:
Player | Category | Innings |
Walks |
Walks/Inning |
Volquez | 1st inning | 21.0 |
23 |
1.10 |
Other | 99.7 |
49 |
0.49 |
|
Danks | 1st inning | 13.0 |
11 |
0.85 |
Other | 57.7 |
23 |
0.40 |
Robinson Tejeda was Danks with fewer homers allowed. He actually pitched better in the waning weeks in Texas than in Oklahoma. As with Volquez, shaky control has held him back. He’ll be a Ranger next April barring injury or meltdown. I’m hopeful that John Rheinecker can do what R.A. Dickey never quite could: maintain an MLB career as a swingman. Somehow, he pitched 60 innings at home but only 32 on the road, so his index stats (RA+, etc.) may be a bit overstated. But he also had a road ERA of 1.67, so perhaps not.
Player | G |
GS |
IP |
RA |
RA+ |
ERA |
ERA+ |
WHIP |
WHIP+ |
HRrate |
HRrate+ |
BBrate |
BBrate+ |
SOrate |
SOrate+ |
Scott Feldman |
23 |
0 |
27.3 |
2.96 |
147 |
1.98 |
194 |
1.06 |
129 |
1.8% |
105 |
8.2% |
111 |
21.8% |
122 |
John Rheinecker |
15 |
15 |
93.0 |
3.19 |
137 |
2.52 |
152 |
1.26 |
108 |
1.3% |
147 |
6.2% |
145 |
17.7% |
99 |
John Wasdin |
13 |
9 |
63.0 |
3.29 |
133 |
2.00 |
192 |
1.10 |
124 |
0.8% |
240 |
6.8% |
134 |
24.7% |
139 |
Robinson Tejeda |
15 |
15 |
80.0 |
3.38 |
129 |
3.15 |
122 |
1.29 |
106 |
2.1% |
92 |
12.6% |
72 |
23.7% |
132 |
Jose Diaz |
28 |
1 |
35.7 |
3.53 |
123 |
3.28 |
117 |
1.40 |
98 |
1.3% |
148 |
14.2% |
64 |
29.7% |
167 |
Erasmo Ramirez |
54 |
0 |
67.7 |
3.59 |
121 |
3.59 |
107 |
1.12 |
122 |
1.8% |
105 |
2.6% |
354 |
17.2% |
96 |
Edinson Volquez |
21 |
21 |
120.7 |
3.80 |
115 |
3.21 |
120 |
1.31 |
104 |
1.8% |
108 |
14.2% |
64 |
25.7% |
144 |
Derek Lee |
29 |
23 |
143.7 |
4.57 |
95 |
4.26 |
90 |
1.45 |
94 |
2.4% |
80 |
8.5% |
107 |
14.7% |
82 |
Kevin Walker |
46 |
5 |
68.0 |
4.90 |
89 |
4.63 |
83 |
1.60 |
85 |
1.6% |
117 |
10.5% |
87 |
19.4% |
108 |
Kelvin Jimenez |
26 |
0 |
38.0 |
5.21 |
84 |
5.21 |
74 |
1.68 |
81 |
2.3% |
83 |
13.8% |
66 |
23.1% |
129 |
R.A. Dickey |
22 |
19 |
131.7 |
5.47 |
80 |
4.92 |
78 |
1.37 |
100 |
3.0% |
64 |
8.1% |
112 |
10.8% |
60 |
John Danks |
14 |
13 |
70.7 |
5.48 |
80 |
4.33 |
89 |
1.43 |
96 |
3.6% |
53 |
11.2% |
81 |
23.7% |
133 |
Nick Masset |
24 |
7 |
67.3 |
6.42 |
68 |
4.81 |
80 |
1.59 |
86 |
1.3% |
145 |
9.3% |
98 |
21.5% |
121 |
Ryan Bukvich |
31 |
0 |
35.3 |
6.88 |
63 |
6.11 |
63 |
1.87 |
73 |
4.8% |
40 |
13.2% |
69 |
22.2% |
124 |
Kameron Loe |
13 |
3 |
22.7 |
9.53 |
46 |
9.13 |
42 |
1.99 |
69 |
2.7% |
71 |
11.8% |
77 |
19.0% |
106 |
TEAM | 140 |
140 |
1,250.7 |
4.56 |
96 |
3.89 |
99 |
1.39 |
98 |
2.1% |
93 |
9.5% |
96 |
19.7% |
111 |
Park-Adjusted League Average | - |
- |
- |
4.36 |
- |
3.83 |
- |
1.37 |
- |
1.9% |
- |
9.1% |
- |
17.9% |
- |
Posted by Lucas at 02:22 PM
October 13, 2006
Minor League Review, Part 7: Oklahoma Redhawks Hitters
About the League: Though it reputedly favors hitters, the Pacific Coast League sat squarely between the American and National Leagues in terms of runs scored per game. (Actually, the league’s slugger-happiness is limited to five of its sixteen cities: Colorado Springs, Tucson, Las Vegas, Salt Lake and Albuquerque.) This season, the league most closely resembled the AL in 1997. The league averaged 4.8 runs per game with a batting line of .271/.342/.416.
Pacific Coast League vs American League |
|
Runs Scored | 3% lower |
Runs Allowed | 1% lower |
ERA | 5% lower |
Batting Average | .004 lower |
On-Base Percentage | .003 higher |
Slugging Percentage | .019 lower |
Walk Rate | 8% higher |
Strikeout Rate | 7% higher |
About the Park: Bricktown Ballpark remorselessly punishes hitters. Think Comerica before the fences moved in, or the early years of Pac Bell Park, or Yankee Stadium during the ‘30s. The official website claims that “sluggers will enjoy a 325-foot left field porch,” but they’re not enjoying it very often. Redhawks and their opponents hit only 76 homers at the Brick compared to 129 in road parks. For Redhawk players, playing in Oklahoma depresses homers by almost 20%. That and the other factors are vital to understanding the performances of the Rangers’ AAA squad. For hitters, the park-adjusted average line was only .259/.331/.387, and for pitchers, the league average ERA was a tiny 3.89.
Park Factors -- Bricktown Ballpark |
|
Runs | 0.88 |
Average | 0.96 |
On-Base Percentage | 0.97 |
Slugging Percentage | 0.93 |
Home Runs | 0.82 |
Walks | 1.02 |
Strikeouts | 0.99 |
About the players: Revisit the preceding paragraph, then contemplate Jason Botts’s line of .309/.398/.582, good for a Herculean OPS+ of 170. I’m not saying he’ll definitely hit Major-League pitching, but clearly he needs a legitimate opportunity, not the illusory one he got over the summer.
Alas, even Corpus Christi with 400% humidity wouldn’t create park factors sufficient to prettify Joaquin Arias’s line of .268/.296/.361. With the huge caveat that he didn’t turn 22 until last month, I must note that Arias has never exceeded five homers or walked in more than 6% of his plate appearances in any of his five minor-league seasons. Let’s just say he’s not ready yet, despite his startling six-for-eleven MLB debut.
Among other prospects… well, who are they? Laynce Nix, Will Smith, Rashad Eldridge are gone, Texas chopped Aarom Baldiris off the 40-man roster, and Drew Meyer... oy. 23-year-old Anthony Webster didn’t set the PCL aflame. Freddy Guzman reached base at a sterling .375 pace and probably would have make a fine fourth outfielder in the Majors in 2006, but I think Texas would only grudgingly deposit him in Arlington’s center field next year if Gary Matthews departs.
Player | POS |
G |
OPS |
OPS+ |
AVG |
AVG+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
ISO |
ISO+ |
BB% |
BB%+ |
SO% |
SO%+ |
Net Steals |
Jason Botts |
OF |
63 |
.980 |
170 |
.309 |
119 |
.398 |
120 |
.582 |
150 |
.273 |
213 |
12.4% |
133 |
21.7% |
77 |
6 |
Adam Hyzdu |
OF |
128 |
.846 |
135 |
.271 |
105 |
.370 |
112 |
.476 |
123 |
.205 |
160 |
14.4% |
156 |
18.9% |
88 |
-1 |
Jason Hart |
1B |
88 |
.775 |
114 |
.254 |
98 |
.315 |
95 |
.459 |
119 |
.205 |
160 |
7.0% |
75 |
16.6% |
101 |
-1 |
Will Smith |
OF |
43 |
.753 |
110 |
.280 |
108 |
.351 |
106 |
.402 |
104 |
.122 |
95 |
10.2% |
110 |
16.5% |
101 |
0 |
Adrian Brown |
OF |
36 |
.747 |
110 |
.295 |
114 |
.379 |
114 |
.369 |
95 |
.074 |
58 |
12.2% |
132 |
12.9% |
130 |
9 |
Laynce Nix |
OF |
77 |
.753 |
109 |
.269 |
104 |
.323 |
98 |
.430 |
111 |
.161 |
126 |
5.9% |
64 |
21.2% |
79 |
2 |
Jamie Burke |
C |
102 |
.745 |
107 |
.278 |
107 |
.323 |
98 |
.422 |
109 |
.144 |
112 |
5.6% |
61 |
10.0% |
167 |
0 |
Freddy Guzman |
OF |
69 |
.720 |
102 |
.282 |
109 |
.375 |
113 |
.345 |
89 |
.063 |
49 |
12.5% |
135 |
12.5% |
133 |
13 |
Anthony Webster |
OF |
69 |
.701 |
95 |
.269 |
104 |
.317 |
96 |
.384 |
99 |
.115 |
90 |
5.1% |
55 |
12.9% |
129 |
8 |
Joaquin Arias |
SS |
124 |
.657 |
83 |
.268 |
103 |
.296 |
89 |
.361 |
93 |
.093 |
73 |
3.7% |
40 |
11.5% |
145 |
6 |
Nick Trzesniak |
C |
50 |
.646 |
80 |
.255 |
98 |
.316 |
95 |
.329 |
85 |
.074 |
58 |
8.5% |
92 |
15.3% |
109 |
0 |
Adam Morrissey |
2B |
42 |
.622 |
74 |
.236 |
91 |
.296 |
89 |
.326 |
84 |
.090 |
70 |
7.1% |
77 |
20.9% |
80 |
-4 |
Jace Brewer |
SS |
65 |
.619 |
72 |
.242 |
93 |
.284 |
86 |
.335 |
87 |
.093 |
73 |
4.9% |
53 |
15.7% |
107 |
-7 |
Rashad Eldridge |
OF |
36 |
.583 |
63 |
.220 |
85 |
.290 |
88 |
.293 |
76 |
.073 |
57 |
8.9% |
96 |
21.2% |
79 |
-3 |
Drew Meyer |
SS |
95 |
.583 |
63 |
.228 |
88 |
.278 |
84 |
.305 |
79 |
.077 |
60 |
6.9% |
74 |
20.0% |
83 |
-13 |
Tom Gregorio |
C |
37 |
.570 |
59 |
.218 |
84 |
.279 |
84 |
.291 |
75 |
.073 |
57 |
8.3% |
90 |
17.3% |
96 |
0 |
Aarom Baldiris |
2B |
78 |
.533 |
49 |
.216 |
83 |
.253 |
76 |
.280 |
72 |
.064 |
50 |
4.0% |
43 |
14.8% |
112 |
-3 |
TEAM | - |
140 |
.707 |
97 |
.261 |
101 |
.323 |
98 |
.384 |
99 |
.123 |
96 |
8.1% |
87 |
16.0% |
104 |
15 |
Park-Adjusted League Average | - |
- |
.718 |
- |
.259 |
- |
.331 |
- |
.387 |
- |
.128 |
- |
9.3% |
- |
16.7% |
- |
8 |
About the stats: See the post on Clinton’s hitters for explanations and caveats.
Posted by Lucas at 06:00 PM
Weekend Photo
In my car on Highway 105 between Navasota and Brenham, 11 October 2006.
Posted by Lucas at 12:25 PM
October 12, 2006
Waiver Claims
Texas claimed pitcher FRANCISCO CRUCETA off waivers from Seattle and pitcher MIKE WOOD off waivers from Kansas City. Texas also designated utility guy JERRY HAIRSTON for assignment.
Despite my admonition, the Rangers made a roster move while I was out of town (in Beaumont, the crown jewel of southeast Texas).
Learn everything you’d ever want to know about Cruceta here. Also, USS Mariner is displeased. Sounds good to me. While Cruceta looks like a failed prospect that might yet pan out, Wood already looks played out. With 293 MLB innings, mostly during 2004-2005 when Kaufmann Stadium favored pitchers, Wood has produced a vanilla walk rate (3.3 per nine IP), a subpar homer rate (1 per 7.3 IP), and a grim strikeout rate (4.8 per nine IP). Feels like a Spring Training roster cut to me.
I guess the Nevin trade was a bust because we couldn’t resign Hairston. But seriously, folks...
Posted by Lucas at 12:34 PM
October 09, 2006
Minor League Review, Part 6: Frisco Roughriders Pitchers
About the league and park: Click here. Very short version:Texas League plays similarly to the American League circa 1991-1993, which is to say, friendly to offenses but not quite so friendly as the late 1990s. The park moderately favors hitters.
About the pitchers: As with the California League, young Eric Hurley (2004 supplemental first-rounder) handled the Texas League with aplomb. The walk and strikeout rates are delicious; a slightly lower homer rate in 2007 would be the cherry on top. 2004 top pick Thomas Diamond struck out over one of every four batters he faced… and walked one of every seven. He allowed only a .285 average on balls in play, preferably a result of his dominance rather than luck. If he can pull his walk rate below 4.5 per nine innings, he’ll make the short list for reinforcements for Arlington in 2007.
2003 first-rounder John Danks was more uncomfortably homer-prone (22 in 140 innings between AA and AAA) and allowed a slugging percentage of .480 in AA. Nevertheless, he posted a decent RA of 104. The lefty struck out batters at a higher rate than even Diamond and had none of the control issues. Daniel Haigwood (the return for Fabio Castro) kept the ball in play, permitting only four homers in 62 innings. Unfortunately, the ball was too much in play – he allowed a ghastly .394 OBP. A round of applause for Kea Kometani, a 15th-rounder from 2005 who jumped to AA during the season and offered solid peripherals that belied his ordinary RA.
Players ordered by Run Average.
Player | G |
GS |
IP |
RA |
RA+ |
ERA |
ERA+ |
WHIP |
WHIP+ |
HRrate |
HRrate+ |
BBrate |
BBrate+ |
SOrate |
SOrate+ |
Michael Bumstead |
33 |
0 |
54.7 |
2.14 |
240 |
1.81 |
248 |
1.08 |
138 |
0.0% |
inf |
9.3% |
101 |
25.9% |
145 |
Eric Hurley |
6 |
6 |
37.0 |
2.19 |
235 |
1.95 |
231 |
0.86 |
173 |
2.8% |
81 |
7.8% |
120 |
22.1% |
124 |
Nick Masset |
8 |
8 |
48.0 |
3.00 |
171 |
2.06 |
218 |
1.21 |
123 |
0.0% |
inf |
10.2% |
92 |
20.3% |
114 |
Daniel Haigwood |
12 |
12 |
62.0 |
4.21 |
122 |
3.63 |
124 |
1.77 |
84 |
1.4% |
166 |
15.3% |
61 |
19.8% |
111 |
Thomas Diamond |
27 |
27 |
129.3 |
4.52 |
114 |
4.24 |
106 |
1.41 |
106 |
2.5% |
92 |
14.1% |
67 |
26.1% |
147 |
Jeremy Ward |
30 |
0 |
49.7 |
4.71 |
109 |
4.35 |
103 |
1.35 |
110 |
2.4% |
97 |
7.6% |
123 |
21.8% |
122 |
John Danks |
13 |
13 |
69.3 |
4.93 |
104 |
4.15 |
108 |
1.38 |
108 |
3.7% |
62 |
7.4% |
126 |
27.7% |
156 |
Jesse Chavez |
38 |
0 |
59.0 |
5.03 |
102 |
4.42 |
102 |
1.39 |
107 |
2.0% |
117 |
11.1% |
84 |
27.8% |
156 |
Kea Kometani |
17 |
16 |
88.3 |
5.09 |
101 |
4.69 |
96 |
1.45 |
103 |
1.0% |
222 |
8.6% |
109 |
20.1% |
113 |
Danny Touchet |
34 |
0 |
65.7 |
5.21 |
99 |
5.07 |
89 |
1.46 |
102 |
2.1% |
111 |
6.2% |
150 |
15.6% |
88 |
Jesse Carlson |
43 |
0 |
58.0 |
6.05 |
85 |
4.66 |
96 |
1.43 |
104 |
2.8% |
84 |
7.1% |
132 |
17.8% |
100 |
Steven Rowe |
45 |
3 |
83.0 |
6.40 |
80 |
5.53 |
81 |
1.54 |
97 |
3.8% |
61 |
8.9% |
106 |
18.0% |
101 |
Andy Walker |
20 |
15 |
93.0 |
6.48 |
79 |
5.81 |
77 |
1.51 |
99 |
5.1% |
45 |
5.1% |
183 |
12.7% |
71 |
Ryan Jensen |
11 |
8 |
50.0 |
6.66 |
77 |
5.94 |
76 |
1.50 |
99 |
2.7% |
85 |
5.9% |
160 |
16.7% |
94 |
Armando Galarraga |
9 |
9 |
41.0 |
7.46 |
69 |
5.49 |
82 |
1.68 |
89 |
2.6% |
89 |
6.8% |
138 |
19.8% |
111 |
TEAM TOTALS |
140 |
140 |
1,238.0 |
4.91 |
105 |
4.30 |
105 |
1.42 |
105 |
2.3% |
102 |
9.2% |
102 |
20.5% |
115 |
Park-Adjusted League Average | - |
- |
- |
5.14 |
- |
4.50 |
- |
1.49 |
- |
2.40% |
- |
9.4% |
- |
17.8% |
- |
About the stats: See the top of this post for explanations and caveats.
Posted by Lucas at 11:58 PM
October 08, 2006
Weekend Photo
Colorado Bend State Park, 7 October 2006
Posted by Lucas at 11:01 PM
October 05, 2006
Back In The Day...
What I wrote in an ESPN column (pre-blog) on 1 November 2002 after Showalter was hired:
Reading about Buck Showalter’s zeal for discipline, you might believe Showalter previously helmed the HMS Bounty (as the sadistic Trevor Howard rather than the more nuanced Anthony Hopkins) or perhaps was the Gunnery Sergeant from “Full Metal Jacket.� Presumably, Showalter possesses skills beyond dictating the dress code on flights to Seattle. He has a 563-504 career record, helped to resurrect a faltering Yankee franchise in the early 1990s and led Arizona to the playoffs in its second year of existence. As before, he may wear out his welcome after three or four years. Despite his potentially short shelf-life, he is widely praised for his management and evaluation skills.
The “managerial tendencies� section from STAT’S annual Major League Handbooks (which to my extreme dismay will no longer be published) indicate that Showalter didn’t appear to overmanage his Arizona squads during 2000-2001. They tended to steal more often than the average NL team (especially with none out). He ordered a few more bunts than the typical manager but far fewer hit-and-runs. He eschewed the intentional walk and the pitchout. He did tend to order more mid-inning pitching changes one-batter relief appearances than most managers.
I watched the Howard/Brando version of Bounty again just last Sunday. Showalter was a cupcake compared to Captain Bligh.
Posted by Lucas at 01:09 AM
Emerson Frostad Has Arrived
Mentioned in Rotoworld.
Also, someone should pay me to spend several months in Hawaii.
Posted by Lucas at 12:35 AM
October 04, 2006
Stats Ahoy
Baseball Reference already has 2006 stats posted. That was fast. Rangers here.
I'd like to note that, for the second time in three years, Texas had a better OPS+ than ERA+.
UPDATE: Travis Hafner's best comp among hitters through their Age 29 season? Brian Giles.
Posted by Lucas at 07:47 PM
Showalter Fired
Texas fired manager Buck Showalter.
I haven’t written much about Showalter because I’m ambivalent about him. I agree that Showalter had to go, and I won’t miss him. Having said that, I have no doubt that he tried his best to make the team a winner and that he believed he could lead capably into the future. He refused to resign, and rightly so.
I doubt I’d enjoy working for him, but that’s an issue of personality, not managerial competence. Most people (and I can’t say I’m excluding myself) judge a manager based on personality because that’s all they have to go on. Sure, there are wins and losses, but that’s mostly the domain of the players. Grading managers objectively is a difficult task with nebulous results. Only those on the far end of the curve (say, Earl Weaver and Larry Bowa) are easily assessed.
Showalter’s dismissal actually did hinge on personality. Tom Hicks (and it is ultimately Hicks’s decision despite his public handoff to Jon Daniels) didn’t fire him because he started Rod Barajas too often. In today’s press conference Daniels expressed the need for a “fresh perspective,� usually an empty phrase but appropriate in this case. Not for the first time, Showalter’s personality didn’t mesh with the players. He consistently ranked among the least-liked managers according to secret ballots of players. Though a friendly relationship between manager and players certainly isn’t requisite to winning, too much dislike and mistrust can poison a clubhouse (or any working environment).
Tom Hicks may have wanted to retain Showalter, but Hicks himself paved the way for Showalter’s firing with his ill-advised interview questioning the character of the players. After the predictable backlash from the players, media and fans, the present situation could not stand. Someone had to go in order to relieve the tension. Should Hicks and Daniels have dismantled the team to save the manager? Of course not. Even on the assumption that Showalter is a great manager and doesn’t deserve firing, it’s far easier and sensible to replace him rather than the players.
Far more difficult is the task of replacing the team’s the biggest problem, its owner. As pointed out by Ed Coffin, frequent commenter at Lone Star Ball and Jamey Newberg’s message board, Tom Hicks is a deal broker, not an executive. It’s not that he has no plan. In fact, he’s had many plans, each diligently followed for a couple of years or so, whereupon an entirely new and often diametrically opposing plan takes its place.
In eight seasons of ownership, Hicks has employed three general managers and will soon hire his fourth manager. After 2001, Hicks replaced Doug Melvin with John Hart and simultaneously hired Grady Fuson with the understanding that Fuson would assume GM duties after a three-year “internship.� Two years and nine months later, Hicks dismissed Fuson. After Texas unexpectedly won 89 games in 2004, only the second winning season during Hicks’s tenure, he signed Hart to a rolling two-year extension and Showalter to a three-year extension with a club option. Nine months later, Hicks reassigned Hart. One year and nine months later, he fired Showalter before his extension began. Mull that one over. Hicks signed Showalter to a guaranteed three-year, $6 million contract when the existing contract still had two years remaining, and Showalter will receive that money without managing a single game.
Wait, there’s more. Hicks signed Alex Rodriguez to a ten-year, $252 million contract. Rodriguez lasted three years. During the next nineteen years the Rangers will pay him $87 million (plus interest) to play for the Yankees and to hone his golf skills after he retires. On a broader level, he instigated a period of frivolous spending followed by extreme parsimony. Accounting errors during 2001-2002 continue to haunt the team.
Replacing Showalter was necessary, but it doesn’t necessarily improve the team. I hope that in two years I’m discussing a Rangers playoff game and not the next Two Year Plan.
Posted by Lucas at 06:52 PM
October 03, 2006
Draft History Updated
Statuses of drafted players updated through 2006 season. Feel free to email me if you see any errors. No doubt there's a few.
Posted by Lucas at 01:07 AM
October 02, 2006
Minor League Review, Part 5: Frisco Roughriders Hitters
The League: Known as a hitter-friendly league, the Texas League bears a strong resemblance to the AL during 1991-1993 and 1995. Compared to 2006, walks and strikeouts are 10% more frequent and (as with any minor league) unearned runs more common. (0.63 per nine innings compared to 0.38 in the AL).
Texas League vs American League |
|
Runs Scored | 1% lower |
Runs Allowed | 1% higher |
ERA | 4% lower |
Batting Average | .005 lower |
On-Base Percentage | .005 higher |
Slugging Percentage | .019 lower |
Walk Rate | 10% higher |
Strikeout Rate | 10% higher |
The Park: Standard down the lines (335’), a bit shallow to the alleys (364’) and deep to center (409’), Dr. Pepper Ballpark favors hitters. I understand that tickets are the most expensive in AA, up to $18. In AAA Round Rock, tickets top out at $12, plus you get to see Joe McEwing.
Park Factors -- Dr. Pepper Ballpark |
|
Runs | 1.03 |
Average | 1.02 |
On-Base Percentage | 1.02 |
Slugging Percentage | 1.01 |
Walks | 1.02 |
Strikeouts | 0.99 |
Update your satellite imagery, Google!
The Team: Nate Gold (10th round, 2002) had a 145 OPS+ and led the league in homers. Unfortunately, he turned 26 in June, borderline-ancient for a prospect in AA. Texas exposed him to the Rule 5 draft last winter and may do so again despite his upsurge. Perhaps Texas will add him to the 40-man roster this fall and try to sneak him through waivers at the end of Spring Training if they need his spot.
Ben Harrison (2002, 7th) performed admirably after a midseason promotion from Bakerfield, though his walk rate plummeted. Kevin Mahar (undrafted) maintained his power (sixth in the league in triples, eighth in homers) but lost fifty points of average and eighty of OBP in his transition to AA. Travis Metcalf (2004, 11th) lost everything but his cap; his OPS plummeted from .870 in Bakersfield in 2005 to .622 in Frisco. The Rangers needn’t make a roster. Like Gold, they could face exposure to thus winter’s Rule 5 draft.
Overall, Frisco had a weak offense, scoring about one-quarter run per game under the park-adjusted league average.
Player | POS |
G |
OPS |
OPS+ |
AVG |
AVG+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
ISO |
ISO+ |
BB% |
BB%+ |
SO% |
SO%+ |
Net Steals |
Nate Gold |
1B |
120 |
.958 |
145 |
.292 |
107 |
.376 |
107 |
.582 |
138 |
.290 |
195 |
10.8% |
115 |
15.8% |
106 |
-5 |
Kevin Richardson |
C |
93 |
.857 |
120 |
.271 |
99 |
.358 |
102 |
.498 |
118 |
.227 |
152 |
9.8% |
1002 |
23.9% |
70 |
2 |
Adam Morrissey |
2B |
54 |
.844 |
118 |
.313 |
114 |
.387 |
110 |
.457 |
108 |
.144 |
97 |
10.7% |
112 |
18.4% |
91 |
-2 |
Ben Harrison |
OF |
42 |
.832 |
113 |
.282 |
103 |
.341 |
97 |
.491 |
116 |
.209 |
140 |
5.8% |
60 |
16.4% |
102 |
4 |
Anthony Webster |
OF |
59 |
.827 |
113 |
.310 |
113 |
.364 |
104 |
.463 |
109 |
.153 |
103 |
7.7% |
80 |
10.4% |
161 |
-7 |
Kevin Mahar |
OF |
127 |
.789 |
102 |
.267 |
98 |
.319 |
91 |
.469 |
111 |
.202 |
136 |
6.1% |
64 |
17.9% |
94 |
-1 |
Casey Benjamin |
SS |
92 |
.771 |
99 |
.283 |
103 |
.349 |
99 |
.422 |
100 |
.139 |
93 |
9.4% |
98 |
14.5% |
115 |
-2 |
Mike Nickeas |
C |
39 |
.745 |
95 |
.248 |
91 |
.382 |
109 |
.363 |
86 |
.115 |
77 |
15.7% |
1603 |
16.3% |
103 |
-1 |
Jake Blalock |
OF |
110 |
.711 |
85 |
.266 |
97 |
.339 |
97 |
.372 |
88 |
.106 |
71 |
9.6% |
100 |
18.4% |
91 |
2 |
Enrique Cruz |
SS |
76 |
.694 |
79 |
.270 |
99 |
.323 |
92 |
.370 |
87 |
.100 |
67 |
6.3% |
656 |
22.6% |
74 |
-4 |
Jim Fasano |
1B |
96 |
.692 |
79 |
.244 |
89 |
.308 |
88 |
.384 |
91 |
.140 |
94 |
7.8% |
82 |
20.3% |
82 |
2 |
Luke Grayson |
OF |
55 |
.668 |
73 |
.233 |
85 |
.305 |
87 |
.364 |
86 |
.131 |
88 |
7.4% |
757 |
19.6% |
875 |
-1 |
Ruddy Yan |
CF |
49 |
.622 |
63 |
.257 |
94 |
.320 |
91 |
.302 |
71 |
.045 |
30 |
8.2% |
85 |
10.6% |
160 |
1 |
Travis Metcalf |
3B |
121 |
.622 |
62 |
.221 |
81 |
.298 |
85 |
.325 |
77 |
.104 |
70 |
9.6% |
100 |
20.9% |
158 |
-5 |
TEAM TOTALS |
- |
140 |
.753 |
95 |
.267 |
98 |
.339 |
97 |
.415 |
98 |
.148 |
99 |
8.8% |
92 |
18.1% |
92 |
-12 |
Park-Adjusted League Average | - |
- |
.751 |
- |
.274 |
- |
.351 |
- |
.423 |
- |
.149 |
- |
9.6% |
- |
16.7% |
- |
-12 |
About the stats: See the post on Clinton’s hitters for explanations and caveats.
Posted by Lucas at 07:59 PM
October 01, 2006
Flat
The Rangers have lost at least six of their final ten games every season this decade, and they’ve lost six of their final seven series:
YEAR LAST 10 LAST SERIES 2000 1-9 0-3 2001 3-7 1-3 2002 3-7 0-3 2003 4-6 1-2 2004 4-6 2-1 2005 4-6 0-3 2006 3-7 1-2 TOTAL 22-48 5-17
Posted by Lucas at 07:44 PM