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December 31, 2006

New Year's Eve Photo


A clock that belonged to my grandmother, who passed away last March.

May your 2007 be safe and fulfilling.

Posted by Lucas at 08:32 PM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Designated Hitters

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
P. Nevin
30%
.730
75
.309
88
.421
88
25
9
31
10.9%
19.3%
H. Blalock
20%
.532
29
.244
69
.288
60
9
2
9
6.3%
22.2%
M. Stairs
12%
.653
57
.273
78
.380
79
6
3
10
6.6%
25.0%
K. Mench
9%
.701
70
.321
91
.380
79
6
1
3
9.1%
7.3%
J. Botts
8%
.693
69
.321
91
.372
77
8
1
5
15.7%
33.3%
B. Wilkerson
7%
.527
27
.227
65
.300
62
3
1
1
9.1%
31.8%
M. Young
5%
1.396
232
.543
155
.853
177
7
2
10
2.9%
8.6%
C. Lee
5%
.981
135
.400
114
.581
121
6
1
5
8.8%
2.9%
5 others
4%
.839
102
.357
102
.481
100
1
1
2
0.0%
0.0%
TEAM
.719
73
.309
88
.410
85
71
21
76
8.7%
19.7%
AL Average
-
.832
-
.351
-
.481
-
83
28
93
11.1%
18.8%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
12
-
13
-
12
9
9
10
9
10

Texas DHes leapt from the worst OPS+ in the American League in 2005 to third-worst last season. Are you not suitably impressed? This next bit of information won’t help. Erase Michael Young’s softball line (.529/.543/.853 in seven games) and the remainder drops to – yikes -- .220/.290/.383. Remember, these are “designated hitters.”

As I’d mentioned in May, Nevin’s everyday presence in the middle of the order was a gloomily foregone conclusion despite mounting evidence that he wouldn’t perform. Texas relieved him of his duties just past the season’s one-quarter mark, after which time, for the most part, the situation worsened.

With nothing left to prove in the minors, Jason Botts received only a handful of starts over several weeks before management shuttled him back to Oklahoma. Wilkerson and Mench split the majority of DH starts for a month in a quasi-platoon while Mark DeRosa started every day (deservedly). Matt Stairs came, did nothing, and left. An injured Hank Blalock started mostly at DH during the final three weeks and reached his nadir as a batter. Only Young and Carlos Lee hit with authority.

AL Designated Hitters

TEAM
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
Cleveland
1.016
150
.412
119
.604
131
114
45
137
Boston
1.003
143
.406
116
.597
127
109
50
131
Chicago Sox
.975
133
.408
116
.566
117
117
42
112
Oakland
.881
116
.368
106
.513
110
87
40
121
LA Angels
.849
108
.356
102
.492
106
84
28
96
NY Yankees
.842
106
.369
106
.473
100
104
30
114
Toronto
.811
94
.338
97
.473
97
65
16
69
Kansas City
.787
89
.348
97
.439
92
70
21
87
Detroit
.768
88
.309
88
.460
99
85
27
90
Baltimore
.754
85
.333
95
.421
90
63
16
71
Tampa Bay
.745
82
.323
92
.422
89
74
25
78
Texas
.719
73
.309
88
.410
85
71
21
76
Minnesota
.680
71
.316
92
.364
78
61
8
60
Seattle
.667
67
.300
87
.366
80
59
17
61

Best-hitting DHes: Cleveland has some guy named Hafner. I hear he's pretty good.

Worst: Seattle, a ghastly amalgam of Carl Everett, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and assorted others. Not to suggest Seattle’s acquisition of Jose Vidro was wise, but he will be an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 05:39 PM

December 29, 2006

Notes On The McCarthy-Danks Trade

(I’ve been out-of-pocket for a few days, so if I’m repeating someone else’s observations, I apologize…)

Age and Level
As mentioned by Adam yesterday, McCarthy isn’t two years older than Danks, only seventeen months. Because ages as applied to seasons are determined by a player’s age as of July 1, McCarthy is listed as two years older. Here is how McCarthy and Danks have advanced through minors in terms of age:

Age
McCarthy Danks
18
Rookie Rookie, Short-Season
19
Rookie, Short-Season Low A, High A
20
Short-Season, Low A, High A High A, AA
21
High A, AA AA, AAA
22
AAA, Majors ---
23
Majors ---

Danks is only about a year ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy debuted in the Majors at the age of 22 years, 10 months. Danks will turn 22 next April.

Minor Performance
McCarthy clearly has pitched better than Danks in the minors. In addition an ERA nearly a full run lower than Danks, all the peripheral stats favor McCarthy.

Minors
RA
ERA
Opp. Avg.
HR%
BB%
SO%
McCarthy 3.92 3.39 .236 2.3% 4.9% 28.5%
Danks 4.96 4.33 .256 2.6% 8.6% 24.1%

But, stats can mislead. Many pitchers with good minor-league stats in aggregate have a shaky combination of outstanding stats in the low minors and mediocre performances in AA and AAA. To place more importance on higher levels, I created a weighted average, giving a lower level in the minors only two-thirds the weight of the one above it. So, AA counts two-thirds as much as AAA, high-A counts two-thirds as much as AA, etc. By the time we hit bottom, the Rookie League gets only about one-seventh the credit of AAA.

Why two-thirds? Well... it seems reasonable. I’m sure I (or someone) could look into the stats and devise a better weight for each level, but for the purpose of this simple exercise, two-thirds will suffice. Now, how do McCarthy and Danks match up:

Minors, Weighted
RA
ERA
Opp. Avg.
HR%
BB%
SO%
McCarthy 3.94 3.71 .230 2.7% 5.6% 28.2%
Danks 5.35 4.58 .262 2.9% 8.9% 23.3%

Again, McCarthy runs the table, and Danks’s weighted RA jumps to an uncomfortable 5.35 (21% of his runs in AAA were unearned.)

Parks
Chicago’s US Cellular Field plays nearly as hitter-friendly as Texas’s Ballpark. Cellular had a run factor of 1.05 versus the Ballpark’s 1.08 in 2006. Cellular depresses singles, doubles and triples but allows more homers and walks. Translating McCarthy’s statistics to Arlington increases his ERA only by about 0.05.

Intentional Walks
Ozzie Guillen ordered more intentional walks than any AL team and more than nine NL teams last season. Nine of McCarthy’s 33 walks were intentional. He got off easy; Neal Cotts issued seven free passes in just 30 innings. Losing the IBBs decreases McCarthy’s walk rate from 3.5 to 2.6 per nine innings.

Luck
McCarthy has permitted an uncommonly low hit rate on balls in play of .252 in the Majors. The White Sox as a whole allowed a .290 average on balls in play during 2005-2006. Perhaps McCarthy has a genuine ability to depress hits, but the probability of him continuing to allow an average 48 points below his teammates is very remote. Giving him a team-average hit rate in 2006 results in ten more hits allowed and a full run added to his ERA.

Earned Run Average
Pitchers who allow a high number of unearned runs usually aren’t as good as their ERAs would suggest. For example, in 2005 Kevin Millwood had an ERA of 2.86 but allowed eleven unearned runs (15% of his total), indicating his season was a bit of a fluke.

McCarthy has allowed zero unearned runs in 152 innings. He has a career ERA+ of 104, but his RA+ is 112. In 2006, he had a Component ERA (a Bill James creation that estimates what the pitcher’s ERA “should be” based on peripheral stats) of just 4.10 compared to his actual ERA of 4.68. (Note that the Component ERA does not compensate for his abnormally low hit rate on balls in play. Again, giving him a typical hit rate increases his ERA and RA by a run.)

Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM

December 28, 2006

Quiroz signed

Texas signed catcher GUILLERMO QUIROZ to a Major League contract and added him to the 40-man roster.

Once a well-regarded prospect, Quiroz has toiled for eight years with only 98 MLB plate appearances to his credit. He peaked statistically in 2003, batting .282/.372/.518 for AA New Haven (Toronto system), and has bounced between AAA and the Majors ever since. He did hit .304/.359/.428 for AAA Tacoma last year, and as a 25-year-old, may yet mature into a decent MLB backup. Anything that might improve upon Miguel Ojeda would be most welcome. With his signing, Texas has filled its 40-man roster.

The Rangers also signed pitcher Mike Wood to a minor deal after waiving him a few weeks ago. They also signed former Twin reliever Willie Eyre, who should spend most or all of 2007 regaling the Redhawk faithful with his presence.

Posted by Lucas at 09:49 PM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Right Fielders

Here’s your disaster.

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
M. DeRosa
37%
.783
90
.347
99
.436
91
30
4
29
7.3%
19.6%
K. Mench
35%
.824
99
.345
99
.479
100
26
10
36
6.6%
14.0%
N. Cruz
20%
.626
51
.261
75
.365
76
14
5
21
5.3%
22.6%
9 others
7%
.485
17
.208
60
.277
58
3
0
9
0.0%
0.0%
TEAM
.743
80
.319
91
.424
89
73
19
95
6.3%
19.4%
AL Average
-
.828
-
.350
-
.478
-
92
24
94
8.2%
16.7%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
14
-
13
-
14
14
10
7
14
11

Texas’s variety pack of right fielders posted a line of .271/.319/.424. That may only sound “bad,” not “really really bad,” but right field is for offense. Among the eight fielding positions plus DH, AL right fielders ranked first in batting average, third in OBP and second in slugging percentage.

The Rangers did not keep up. They ranked next-to-last in the league in on-base percentage, last in slugging, last in runs scored, and last in walk rate. Mark DeRosa batted .295/.347/.436, mostly later in the season after he’d cooled off. Now, that line compares quite favorably to DeRosa’s previous output from 1998 to 2005, but as an American League right fielder in 2006, not so much. Kevin Mench basically held his ground, and Nelson Cruz had a tough rookie season.

AL Right Fielders

TEAM
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
Chicago Sox
.958
129
.376
107
.582
122
111
44
129
LA Angels
.885
118
.363
104
.522
114
91
33
116
Toronto
.876
110
.354
102
.522
108
104
28
111
Baltimore
.851
108
.354
102
.497
106
89
26
86
NY Yankees
.814
100
.357
103
.456
97
93
22
101
Detroit
.808
99
.344
99
.463
101
90
26
103
Minnesota
.796
99
.348
102
.447
97
109
20
104
Oakland
.793
98
.358
104
.435
94
87
18
93
Seattle
.778
97
.371
108
.407
90
99
10
53
Cleveland
.784
96
.339
98
.445
97
91
20
89
Tampa Bay
.795
93
.310
89
.485
103
83
33
76
Boston
.777
92
.352
101
.425
91
84
17
77
Kansas City
.777
87
.332
93
.445
94
88
16
81
Texas
.743
80
.319
91
.424
89
73
19
95

Best-hitting right fielders: Chicago’s Jermaine Dye lapped the field, including LA’s Vlad.

Worst: See above.

Posted by Lucas at 01:37 PM

December 25, 2006

Merry Christmas

Posted by Lucas at 02:04 AM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Center Fielders

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
G. Matthews
89%
.875
125
.375
112
.500
113
102
19
75
8.6%
13.8%
6 others
11%
.272
(29)
.134
40
.138
31
4
0
7
2.4%
40.2%
TEAM
-
.807
107
.349
104
.457
103
106
19
82
8.0%
16.7%
AL Average
-
.778
-
.335
-
.443
-
95
19
74
7.5%
16.9%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
5
-
4
-
6
3
8
4
6
7

I’d guess Gary Matthews has no more than a 10% chance of justifying his contract. That’s not to diminish his outstanding final season in Texas. Center field has plagued the Rangers since the team logo was a cowboy hat perched on a baseball (see upper left). For one season, Matthews eradicated that plague with solid defense and an astonishing bat. New center fielder Kenny Lofton may outhit Matthews next year, but he won’t surpass Matthews’s 2006.

Laynce Nix, Adrian Brown, Jerry Hairston, Freddy Guzman, and Brad Wilkerson (1 at-bat) combined to go 9-for-80 (.113) with two walks. Good times.

AL Center Fielders

TEAM
OPS
OPS+
OBP
OBP+
SLG
SLG+
R
HR
RBI
Cleveland
0.920
142
0.378
115
0.541
127
136
29
78
Toronto
0.915
132
0.364
109
0.551
123
106
34
113
Minnesota
0.803
112
0.334
102
0.468
109
102
32
99
NY Yankees
0.806
110
0.345
104
0.461
106
121
26
84
Texas
0.807
107
0.349
104
0.457
103
106
19
82
Detroit
0.777
104
0.330
99
0.447
105
101
22
76
Tampa Bay
0.758
96
0.314
94
0.443
102
94
21
79
LA Angels
0.733
95
0.345
104
0.388
91
87
10
71
Oakland
0.736
95
0.333
101
0.403
94
83
11
76
Kansas City
0.741
92
0.351
103
0.390
89
83
8
62
Boston
0.713
87
0.326
98
0.388
89
87
13
66
Baltimore
0.714
85
0.297
89
0.418
96
83
21
67
Seattle
0.656
75
0.294
89
0.362
86
80
11
42
Chicago Sox
0.672
73
0.302
90
0.370
83
67
12
47

Best-hitting center fielders: Cleveland, in the form of Grady Sizemore.

Worst: The Chicago White Sox, a combination of Brian Anderson (a terrific fielder who couldn’t hit) and Rob Mackowiak (overmatched in center but adequate at the plate). Seattle gets dishonorable mention with its three-headed monster of Jeremy Reed, Willie Bloomquist and Adam Jones (until Ichiro! took over).

Posted by Lucas at 02:01 AM

December 23, 2006

Gigantic Trade

Texas has traded pitchers JOHN DANKS, NICK MASSET and JACOB RASNER to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher BRANDON MCCARTHY and outfielder DAVID PAISANO.

And here I am, doing Christmas with the in-laws (XM radio! Two bottles of wine!), blithely assuming MLB would be taking the weekend off, caught totally off-guard.

Ultra-quick first impression: I'm not sure I agree, but I understand. And Jon Daniels has a huge pair.

Posted by Lucas at 11:30 PM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Left Fielders

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
B. Wilkerson
45%
.777
92
.325
93
.452
99
52
14
41
10.9%
32.0%
C. Lee
33%
.882
117
.364
104
.517
113
36
8
30
7.7%
11.3%
K. Mench
9%
.798
97
.333
96
.464
101
4
1
11
5.1%
10.2%
J. Hairston
8%
.686
74
.360
103
.326
71
8
0
3
14.0%
16.0%
6 others
5%
.813
99
.313
90
.500
109
3
1
5
6.3%
15.6%
TEAM
-
.809
100
.341
98
.469
102
103
24
90
9.3%
21.2%
AL Average
-
.807
-
.349
-
.459
-
94
20
85
8.9%
15.9%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
6
-
7
-
6
3
5
6
6
13

On the whole, Texas left fielders didn’t pull the team underwater as far as you might think. Wilkerson, Mench, and Hairston (who received fifty[!] plate appearances in left – at least he got on base…) did, on their own, but then Carlos Lee arrived and messed things up by batting well. For the real batting disaster, one must look over to right field.

AL Left Fielders

TEAM
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
Boston
.977
145
.423
122
.553
123
101
36
105
Seattle
.871
122
.354
103
.516
118
105
33
124
Oakland
.849
114
.355
103
.494
111
109
31
86
Toronto
.850
112
.395
114
.455
98
96
15
71
Tampa Bay
.817
104
.344
99
.473
105
97
20
83
Texas
.809
100
.341
98
.469
102
103
24
90
NY Yankees
.778
97
.360
105
.419
93
102
13
72
LA Angels
.777
97
.335
97
.442
100
83
19
91
Detroit
.782
96
.303
87
.479
109
94
34
98
Kansas City
.791
95
.342
97
.449
99
102
16
94
Minnesota
.746
91
.329
97
.417
94
74
17
78
Chicago Sox
.720
80
.341
98
.379
82
98
4
57
Cleveland
.704
80
.311
91
.393
89
98
13
76
Baltimore
.682
73
.322
93
.359
80
60
7
66

Best-hitting left fielders: Boston. Manny. Seattle ranks a surprising second thanks to a terrific effort from Raul Ibanez.

Worst: Baltimore. Jeff Conine and Brandon Fahey make a bad corner-outfield tandem? Well knock me down with a feather! (Fahey, by the way, was a Texas Longhorn on the ’02 championship team.)

Posted by Lucas at 09:33 AM

December 18, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Shortstops

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
M. Young
95%
.785
109
.346
104
.438
105
86
12
93
6.7%
13.2%
4 others
5%
.897
140
.412
124
.485
116
10
0
5
2.9%
8.8%
TEAM
-
.790
110
.349
105
.441
105
96
12
98
6.5%
13.0%
AL Average
-
.751
-
.333
-
.418
-
85
13
74
6.9%
14.5%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
4
-
5
-
4
5
8
2
9
5

After four consecutive years of increasingly stunning improvement culminating in last year’s astounding line of .331/.385/.513, Michael Young finally regressed, hitting .314/.356/.459 overall and “only” .303/.346/.438 as a shortstop. As such, he declined from brilliant to very good, lagging only behind the Big Three of Jeter, Tejada, and Carlos Guillen.

Young doesn’t require a backup, but those who did squeeze in a few innings at shortstop hit very well (dollops of Mark DeRosa, Joaquin Arias, and Jerry Hairston).

AL Shortstops

TEAM
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
Detroit
.893
143
.393
118
.500
124
105
19
81
NY Yankees
.893
142
.412
125
.481
117
126
15
100
Baltimore
.866
133
.382
115
.484
118
101
22
91
Texas
.790
110
.349
105
.441
105
96
12
98
LA Angels
.742
102
.338
102
.403
100
102
9
79
Minnesota
.713
97
.342
105
.372
92
60
3
50
Seattle
.708
95
.310
94
.398
100
72
8
48
Oakland
.710
94
.333
101
.376
93
82
13
65
Cleveland
.699
92
.315
96
.384
96
88
14
78
Toronto
.716
90
.321
97
.395
93
81
12
67
Chicago Sox
.712
87
.271
81
.442
105
66
24
92
Tampa Bay
.690
86
.305
92
.386
94
80
16
53
Boston
.674
82
.306
92
.368
90
70
10
63
Kansas City
.575
53
.261
77
.314
76
58
9
68

Best-hitting shortstops: Detroit (mostly the aforementioned Guillen, who hit .320/.400/.519) bested New York (Derek Jeter) in OPS, but the Yankees’ advantage in OBP makes him best by a slight margin.

Worst: Kansas City’s Angel Berroa just barely qualified for the batting title with 503 plate appearances and still managed to make almost 400 outs. KC’s team line of .229/.261/.314 and P-OPS+ 53 were the worst in the American League at any position. In essence, Kansas City’s shortstop’s hit about as well as Eric Milton (.224/.250/.327).

Posted by Lucas at 06:31 PM

December 15, 2006

Weekend Photo


Fredericksburg, Texas, 25 November 2006

Posted by Lucas at 08:39 PM

December 14, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Third Basemen

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
H. Blalock
75%
.777
98
.346
102
.431
96
67
14
80
8.4%
13.6%
M. DeRosa
24%
.767
95
.345
102
.422
94
21
5
22
9.8%
19.0%
3 others
2%
.899
132
.455
134
.444
99
2
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
TEAM
-
.777
98
.348
102
.429
95
90
19
102
8.9%
14.7%
AL Average
-
.790
-
.340
-
.451
-
91
22
89
8.8%
16.1%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
8
-
4
-
9
8
10
3
4
6

Texas third basemen performed slightly better than I expected, finishing in the middle of the AL pack. Most of Hank Blalock’s death spiral occurred while DH’ing, and at third he at least reached base at an acceptable rate. Much more on him to come. Mark DeRosa spent much of the last month at third and had cooled off by then.

AL Third Basemen

TEAM
OPS
OPS+
OBP
OBP+
SLG
SLG+
R
HR
RBI
NY Yankees
.909
133
.389
116
.520
117
117
36
124
Kansas City
.859
116
.366
106
.493
110
96
21
96
Boston
.823
110
.341
101
.482
109
88
24
90
Toronto
.820
107
.349
103
.472
104
105
35
110
Seattle
.775
102
.322
96
.453
106
91
25
91
Detroit
.785
102
.318
94
.467
108
86
27
85
Chicago Sox
.796
99
.320
94
.476
105
83
30
97
Texas
.777
98
.348
102
.429
95
90
19
102
Tampa Bay
.768
97
.334
99
.434
98
71
20
78
Oakland
.742
93
.335
100
.408
93
84
24
81
LA Angels
.736
91
.330
98
.405
93
99
16
69
Baltimore
.735
90
.342
101
.393
89
99
16
89
Minnesota
.703
85
.329
99
.374
86
93
8
64
Cleveland
.688
80
.309
92
.379
88
73
12
75

Best-hitting AL third basemen: Alex Rodriguez had a poor season (by his lofty standards) and was still, easily, the best-hitting third baseman in the league. Incidentally, the Silver Slugger award went to Joe Crede, who trailed Rodriguez in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, home runs, runs batted in, and walks. Voters consist of an apparently unengaged collection of league managers and coaches.

Worst: Cleveland scored 80 more runs than in 2005 in spite of Aaron Boone (.248/.311/.369) and Andy Marte (.226/.287/.421).

Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM

December 13, 2006

Arbitration

Texas tendered contracts to arbitration-eligible pitchers RICK BAUER, JOAQUIN BENOIT and AKINORI OTSUKA and outfielder Brad Wilkerson. Texas did not offer a contract to pitcher MIKE WOOD.

I hadn’t given any thought to Wood being eligible for arbitration. Otherwise, no unexpected moves.

Posted by Lucas at 12:46 PM

December 12, 2006

Gagne Signed

Texas signed reliever ERIC GAGNE to a one-year contract for $6 million with (allegedly) $5 million in incentives.

The ultimate high-risk high-reward signing. Gagne has pitched in only sixteen games over the past two years, missing time with nerve-replacement surgery on his elbow and disc surgery on his back. So why drop no fewer than $6 million on a two-year hospital resident, particularly when the bullpen is already a team strength? Here’s why:

Hitters Against Gagne by Plate Appearance, 2002-2006:

Strikeout 38.7%
Out in play 36.8%
Single 10.8%
Walk 6.2%
Double 2.9%
Homer 1.5%
Hit by pitch 1.1%
Sac bunt 1.1%
Sac fly 0.4%
Reached on error 0.3%
Triple 0.2%

Opponents have batted .169/.229/.254 against him during the past five years. He had a WARP of over ten in 2003, an absolutely outrageous number for a relief pitcher. If he returns most of the way to his prior form, he could be worth five to seven wins. Gagne’s presence also makes a trade of Aki Otsuka (packaged for starting pitching, presumably) more likely.

Posted by Lucas at 06:14 PM

December 11, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Second Basemen

Second base has become the hitter’s graveyard. Among the nine AL positions (fielders plus DH), 2Bs had the fewest homers (by 34) and the worst walk rate. They ranked third in average but only seventh in OBP and dead last in slugging. John Hart must be aghast.

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
I. Kinsler
72%
.802
117
.347
104
.455
113
65
14
55
8.7%
13.9%
M. DeRosa
16%
1.018
175
.429
129
.589
146
20
3
15
7.8%
14.6%
D. Jimenez
9%
.692
89
.339
102
.353
88
6
1
8
13.6%
10.2%
3 others
3%
.417
16
.250
75
.167
41
2
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
TEAM
.816
121
.357
107
.459
114
93
18
78
9.0%
14.3%
AL Average
-
.735
-
.333
-
.402
-
83
11
71
6.7%
12.9%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
2
-
2
-
2
3
3
5
2
9

Happily, the Rangers bucked that trend. Ian Kinsler had not only a fine rookie season but a fine season among all second basemen. Of the fourteen AL 2Bs with the most plate appearances, Kinsler ranked seventh in average, sixth in OBP, and third in slugging. Only Tad Iguchi and Robinson Cano had more homers. Forget about potential. Kinsler already stands with the league’s best hitters at his position.

Kinsler didn’t qualify for the batting title because a thumb injury cost him several weeks. During that time, Rogers Hornsby arose from the dead and assumed the form of Mark DeRosa. I understand that Hornsby’s estate will receive a portion of DeRosa’s $13 million contract.

AL Second Basemen

TEAM
OPS
OPS+
OBP
OBP+
SLG
SLG+
R
HR
RBI
NY Yankees
.813
123
.343
104
.470
119
80
14
99
Texas
.816
121
.357
107
.459
114
93
18
78
Chicago Sox
.772
109
.351
105
.420
104
117
20
86
Cleveland
.745
108
.335
102
.410
106
80
12
72
Seattle
.734
106
.330
101
.404
106
85
10
82
LA Angels
.734
104
.331
100
.403
104
62
7
77
Baltimore
.731
102
.339
102
.391
99
93
11
64
Kansas City
.743
101
.340
100
.403
101
104
8
62
Minnesota
.710
101
.353
109
.357
92
89
3
52
Detroit
.698
94
.328
99
.370
96
80
6
73
Boston
.698
93
.338
102
.361
92
82
7
61
Oakland
.675
88
.307
93
.368
94
73
11
66
Tampa Bay
.668
83
.282
85
.386
98
62
20
83
Toronto
.627
71
.307
93
.320
79
65
5
41

Best-hitting AL second basemen: The Yankees (a great Robinson Cano dragged down by Miguel Cairo and Nick Green) nudged Texas in OPS+, but Texas had a better indexed on-base percentage. It’s my blog, so I’ll give the award to Texas.

Worst: The Blue Jays by an unhealthy margin. For probably no reason, Aaron Hill hit .339/.392/.463 at short and .268/.329/.348 at second. His assistants, mostly Russ Adams and Edgardo Alfonzo, were execrable.

Posted by Lucas at 11:24 PM

Lofton Signs

Texas signed outfielder KENNY LOFTON to a one-year contract for $6 million.

Texas badly needed a sure thing in the outfield. The team already had far-from-proven Nelson Cruz in right and arb-eligible, shoulder-impaired Brad Wilkerson (or Frank Catalanotto) in left. Adding Fast Freddy Guzman or Marlon Byrd in center was too much to bear.

So, Texas gets a leadoff hitter and center fielder. Lofton doesn’t walk quite as often as in his prime but still reaches base at a respectable clip, and he’s stolen 54 bases versus only eight caught during the past two years. Defensively, he’s only adequate, though he probably won’t represent too much of a decline from the departed Gary Matthews, who mostly built his reputation on highlight plays.

For these services, Lofton receives his biggest paycheck since 2001. Let the good times roll!

Posted by Lucas at 10:26 PM

December 08, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: First Basemen

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
M. Teixeira
98%
.885
113
.370
105
.515
108
99
33
110
12.5%
18.1%
4 others
2%
.143
(65)
.071
20
.071
15
1
0
0
0.0%
28.6%
TEAM
-
.869
109
.364
103
.505
106
100
33
110
12.2%
18.3%
AL Average
-
.829
-
.353
-
.476
-
85
25
96
9.3%
17.5%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
6
-
5
-
6
3
4
4
1
10

Through the season’s first 84 games, Mark Teixeira had eight homers and a .432 slugging percentage. Afterwards, 25 and .607. Despite his posting the worst rate stats since his rookie season, Texas 1Bs finished among the top half in OBP and slugging and fourth or better in runs, homers and RBI. Which is to say, a slightly down year from Teixeira is still pretty special. He turns 27 next April and may produce the titanic season I expected in 2006.

Teixeira drew twelve intentional walks last year, eighth-most in the AL. I cursorily attributed most of them to opponents wanting a desirable matchup against Hank Blalock, who followed Teixeira in the order in 71 games and batted .216/.281/.315 against lefthanders. In fact, only once did a team intentionally walk Teixeira to have a lefty face Blalock:

Date
Inning
Score
Outs
Runners
Next Batter
Result
Apr-09
b6
+2
2
-2-
Nevin
groundout
Apr-11
t7
+3
2
--3
Nevin
lineout
Apr-20
t6
+1
1
-2-
Nevin
walk; Mench later doubled home a run
May-08
b5
+2
0
-2-
Nevin
flyout; Teixeira later scored
May-18
t7
+4
2
-2-
Nevin
groundout
May-22
b7
+1
2
-2-
Nevin
groundout
Jun-02
t7
tie
2
-2-
Blalock
groundout against lefty reliever Neal Cotts
Jul-03
b7
+2
1
-23
DeRosa
single, 2 RBI
Jul-21
t8
+3
0
-2-
DeRosa
lineout; Teixeira later scored
Jul-30
b4
+5
1
-2-
Laird
groundout; Teixeira later scored
Aug-08
t1
tie
1
-23
Blalock
grounded into double play against righty starter
Sep-15
b6
tie
2
-2-
Lee
lineout

Texas batted .090/.167/.090 immediately following IBBs to Teixeira, though he did score three runs.

AL First Basemen

TEAM
OPS
OPS+
OBP
OBP+
SLG
SLG+
R
HR
RBI
Minnesota
.970
139
.384
111
.586
128
101
38
140
Chicago Sox
.943
126
.387
109
.556
117
102
35
123
Cleveland
.910
125
.376
108
.534
117
99
31
118
Toronto
.905
117
.380
108
.524
109
93
26
95
Seattle
.847
110
.340
98
.507
112
78
36
110
Texas
.869
109
.364
103
.505
106
100
33
110
NY Yankees
.804
97
.348
100
.455
97
86
29
94
Baltimore
.785
94
.359
102
.426
92
79
18
84
Boston
.773
91
.359
102
.414
89
97
16
86
Kansas City
.774
87
.351
98
.423
90
82
13
96
Detroit
.754
86
.320
91
.434
95
76
23
89
Oakland
.737
83
.337
97
.400
87
77
23
79
Tampa Bay
.715
75
.315
90
.400
86
64
21
63
LA Angels
.664
65
.297
85
.367
80
59
11
61

Best-hitting 1Bs: Minnesota. AL MVP Justin Morneau led the way, and Mike Cuddyer had a small but significant assist (.455/.520/.1.045 in 25 appearances).

Worst: Los Angeles wisely moved Darin Erstad back to the outfield, but his replacements were even worse at the plate. Kendry Morales, Robb Quinlan, Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman combined to hit an abominable .255/.297/.367. LA’s first-sackers ranked last in the league in OBP, slugging, runs, homers and RBI. Good for them.

Posted by Lucas at 11:15 PM

Byrd Sighting

Texas signed outfielder MARLON BYRD to a one-year contract.

Is it a Major League contract? Is he on the 40? Don’t know.

After a splendiferous rookie campaign in 2003, Byrd has since hit .238/.306/.345 in 850 plate appearances. He’s hit well in AAA (.300/.372/.496) during the same span, but at age 29 seems an unlikely candidate for resurgence. Then again, he might be the boffo sequel to From Waiver Bait To Multi-Millionaire: The Gary Matthews Jr. Story by Rudy Jaramillo. Also, I might discover gold in the creek in my backyard.

Byrd is probably 2007’s version of Adrian Brown, but I wouldn’t describe his signing as low-risk high-reward. There’s a chance he could attain 200 plate appearances and suck, which would make him the 2007 version of Doug Glanville.

Posted by Lucas at 08:10 PM

December 07, 2006

Mighty Funny!

Kansas City has signed Gil Meche to a five-year contract for $55-60 million.

Statistically, Meche compares very (un)favorably to Adam Eaton. He has only two seasons of thirty-plus starts and has never exceeded 187 innings. Outside of Seattle pitcher-friendly environs, he’s pretty hopeless:

Category
Seattle
Elsewhere
ERA 3.91 5.34
RA 4.14 5.85
WHIP 1.29 1.58
HR% 2.9% 3.2%
BB% 9.2% 11.2%
SO% 18.4% 14.3%
SO/BB
2.0
1.3

Posted by Lucas at 12:40 PM

December 04, 2006

Padilla Signs

Texas signed pitcher VICENTE PADILLA to a three-year contract for approximately $33 million with a fourth-year option for $12 million.

Three and $18 would have seemed appropriate only three months ago, but this ain’t your daddy’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Given the $19 million bestowed on reliever Dannys Baez and $24 million on perpetual mediocrity Adam Eaton, Padillla’s signing doesn’t shock the conscience.

It also refills a gigantic hole in a rotation that temporarily featured Robinson Tejeda as its #2 starter. In 2006, he rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons and career highs in strikeouts, strikeout rate, batters faced, and wins. Statistically, he doesn’t do anything exceptionally well but also does nothing badly. While he’s had issues both on and off the field, Ranger management presumably is satisfied with his demeanor and long-term outlook.

200 annual innings of what should be slightly above league-average performance is a godsend to this team. Congrats to Daniels and company for closing the deal.

Posted by Lucas at 11:45 PM

December 03, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Catchers

The Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters returns with positional analyses.

In case you’re new to the game: You probably know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.

For Texas’s catchers, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other catchers. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .270/.330/.416. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .332 and a slugging percentage of .435 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages. Instead of OPS+, I use P-OPS+, the “P” standing for “position.”

Name
% of Team PA
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
BB%
SO%
R. Barajas
57%
.718
89
.302
91
.416
98
49
11
41
4.8%
14.0%
G. Laird
41%
.807
112
.332
100
.475
112
43
7
22
4.8%
21.0%
M. Ojeda
2%
.667
74
.250
75
.417
98
0
0
4
0.0%
25.0%
TEAM
-
.753
98
.313
94
.440
104
92
18
67
4.7%
17.1%
AL Average
-
.756
-
.332
-
.425
-
74
18
80
7.4%
15.9%
Team Rank in AL
-
-
8
-
11
-
8
2
6
11
12
10

AL catchers had an OPS+ of 93 relative to the entire league, better than I expected.

I’m inclined to believe that if a catcher is coming off a .298 OBP (overall) and a team offers him two years and $5+ million, maybe, just maybe, he should accept it. But I’m just an observer. Barajas hit 47 homers as a Ranger, about 45 more than I expected when Texas signed him to a minor-league deal in 2004. I called him “Todd Greene Lite” at the time and he ended up being… Todd Greene.

Gerald Laird certainly outhit Barajas, but a late-season decline left him with a very ordinary OBP (even for a catcher), leaving the team among the worst in the AL in that respect. He’d shown an adequate walk rate in the minors, so he has some room to improve. In essence, his thumb injury in May 2004 cost him over two years of regular play in the Majors. Remember who collided with him at home plate? Ken Harvey.

TEAM
OPS
P-OPS+
OBP
P-OBP+
SLG
P-SLG+
R
HR
RBI
Minnesota
.867
138
.401
124
.466
114
94
12
99
Cleveland
.810
121
.365
112
.445
109
79
18
98
NY Yankees
.812
118
.354
108
.458
110
72
25
105
Baltimore
.802
114
.342
103
.459
111
75
26
100
Toronto
.789
107
.333
101
.455
106
71
26
82
Detroit
.766
106
.324
98
.441
108
85
17
82
Seattle
.730
99
.310
95
.420
104
68
20
80
Texas
.753
98
.313
94
.440
104
92
18
67
LA Angels
.725
96
.314
95
.411
101
72
22
69
Chicago Sox
.733
93
.320
96
.413
97
75
18
79
Oakland
.698
92
.356
109
.343
83
81
3
60
Boston
.668
79
.299
90
.369
89
66
18
85
Tampa Bay
.661
77
.299
91
.362
87
53
13
52
Kansas City
.639
69
.293
87
.345
82
49
11
63

Teams are sorted by P-OPS+.

Best-hitting catchers: Minnesota , featuring AL MVP Joe Mauer. Oh, right…

Worst-hitting catchers: Kansas City ’s John Buck and Paul Bako hit badly enough that Jason Larue represented an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 12:30 PM

December 01, 2006

Arbitration

Texas offered arbitration to pitcher VICENTE PADILLA and did not offer arbitration to catcher ROD BARAJAS or outfielder ERIC YOUNG.

Texas would have offered to Barajas had he signed with Toronto. Once he and the Jays departed on bad terms, the Rangers couldn’t risk that he’d hang around and earn a raise just to caddy for Gerald Laird.

Texas has four other arb-eligible players under their control – Rick Bauer, Joaquin Benoit, Aki Otsuka and Brad Wilkerson – and must decide on them by the 12th, if I’m reading the rules correctly.

Posted by Lucas at 11:02 PM

Weekend Photo


Abby the Black Lab, Fredericksburg, Texas, 24 Nov 2006

Posted by Lucas at 01:33 AM