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December 31, 2006
New Year's Eve Photo
A clock that belonged to my grandmother, who passed away last March.
May your 2007 be safe and fulfilling.
Posted by Lucas at 08:32 PM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Designated Hitters
| Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
| P. Nevin | 30% |
.730 |
75 |
.309 |
88 |
.421 |
88 |
25 |
9 |
31 |
10.9% |
19.3% |
| H. Blalock | 20% |
.532 |
29 |
.244 |
69 |
.288 |
60 |
9 |
2 |
9 |
6.3% |
22.2% |
| M. Stairs | 12% |
.653 |
57 |
.273 |
78 |
.380 |
79 |
6 |
3 |
10 |
6.6% |
25.0% |
| K. Mench | 9% |
.701 |
70 |
.321 |
91 |
.380 |
79 |
6 |
1 |
3 |
9.1% |
7.3% |
| J. Botts | 8% |
.693 |
69 |
.321 |
91 |
.372 |
77 |
8 |
1 |
5 |
15.7% |
33.3% |
| B. Wilkerson | 7% |
.527 |
27 |
.227 |
65 |
.300 |
62 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
9.1% |
31.8% |
| M. Young | 5% |
1.396 |
232 |
.543 |
155 |
.853 |
177 |
7 |
2 |
10 |
2.9% |
8.6% |
| C. Lee | 5% |
.981 |
135 |
.400 |
114 |
.581 |
121 |
6 |
1 |
5 |
8.8% |
2.9% |
| 5 others | 4% |
.839 |
102 |
.357 |
102 |
.481 |
100 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| TEAM | .719 |
73 |
.309 |
88 |
.410 |
85 |
71 |
21 |
76 |
8.7% |
19.7% |
|
| AL Average | - |
.832 |
- |
.351 |
- |
.481 |
- |
83 |
28 |
93 |
11.1% |
18.8% |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
12 |
- |
13 |
- |
12 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
Texas DHes leapt from the worst OPS+ in the American League in 2005 to third-worst last season. Are you not suitably impressed? This next bit of information won’t help. Erase Michael Young’s softball line (.529/.543/.853 in seven games) and the remainder drops to – yikes -- .220/.290/.383. Remember, these are “designated hitters.”
As I’d mentioned in May, Nevin’s everyday presence in the middle of the order was a gloomily foregone conclusion despite mounting evidence that he wouldn’t perform. Texas relieved him of his duties just past the season’s one-quarter mark, after which time, for the most part, the situation worsened.
With nothing left to prove in the minors, Jason Botts received only a handful of starts over several weeks before management shuttled him back to Oklahoma. Wilkerson and Mench split the majority of DH starts for a month in a quasi-platoon while Mark DeRosa started every day (deservedly). Matt Stairs came, did nothing, and left. An injured Hank Blalock started mostly at DH during the final three weeks and reached his nadir as a batter. Only Young and Carlos Lee hit with authority.
AL Designated Hitters
| TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| Cleveland | 1.016 |
150 |
.412 |
119 |
.604 |
131 |
114 |
45 |
137 |
| Boston | 1.003 |
143 |
.406 |
116 |
.597 |
127 |
109 |
50 |
131 |
| Chicago Sox | .975 |
133 |
.408 |
116 |
.566 |
117 |
117 |
42 |
112 |
| Oakland | .881 |
116 |
.368 |
106 |
.513 |
110 |
87 |
40 |
121 |
| LA Angels | .849 |
108 |
.356 |
102 |
.492 |
106 |
84 |
28 |
96 |
| NY Yankees | .842 |
106 |
.369 |
106 |
.473 |
100 |
104 |
30 |
114 |
| Toronto | .811 |
94 |
.338 |
97 |
.473 |
97 |
65 |
16 |
69 |
| Kansas City | .787 |
89 |
.348 |
97 |
.439 |
92 |
70 |
21 |
87 |
| Detroit | .768 |
88 |
.309 |
88 |
.460 |
99 |
85 |
27 |
90 |
| Baltimore | .754 |
85 |
.333 |
95 |
.421 |
90 |
63 |
16 |
71 |
| Tampa Bay | .745 |
82 |
.323 |
92 |
.422 |
89 |
74 |
25 |
78 |
| Texas | .719 |
73 |
.309 |
88 |
.410 |
85 |
71 |
21 |
76 |
| Minnesota | .680 |
71 |
.316 |
92 |
.364 |
78 |
61 |
8 |
60 |
| Seattle | .667 |
67 |
.300 |
87 |
.366 |
80 |
59 |
17 |
61 |
Best-hitting DHes: Cleveland has some guy named Hafner. I hear he's pretty good.
Worst: Seattle, a ghastly amalgam of Carl Everett, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and assorted others. Not to suggest Seattle’s acquisition of Jose Vidro was wise, but he will be an upgrade.
Posted by Lucas at 05:39 PM
December 29, 2006
Notes On The McCarthy-Danks Trade
(I’ve been out-of-pocket for a few days, so if I’m repeating someone else’s observations, I apologize…)
Age and Level
As mentioned by Adam yesterday, McCarthy isn’t two years older than Danks, only seventeen months. Because ages as applied to seasons are determined by a player’s age as of July 1, McCarthy is listed as two years older. Here is how McCarthy and Danks have advanced through minors in terms of age:
Age |
McCarthy | Danks |
18 |
Rookie | Rookie, Short-Season |
19 |
Rookie, Short-Season | Low A, High A |
20 |
Short-Season, Low A, High A | High A, AA |
21 |
High A, AA | AA, AAA |
22 |
AAA, Majors | --- |
23 |
Majors | --- |
Danks is only about a year ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy debuted in the Majors at the age of 22 years, 10 months. Danks will turn 22 next April.
Minor Performance
McCarthy clearly has pitched better than Danks in the minors. In addition an ERA nearly a full run lower than Danks, all the peripheral stats favor McCarthy.
| Minors | RA |
ERA |
Opp. Avg. |
HR% |
BB% |
SO% |
| McCarthy | 3.92 | 3.39 | .236 | 2.3% | 4.9% | 28.5% |
| Danks | 4.96 | 4.33 | .256 | 2.6% | 8.6% | 24.1% |
But, stats can mislead. Many pitchers with good minor-league stats in aggregate have a shaky combination of outstanding stats in the low minors and mediocre performances in AA and AAA. To place more importance on higher levels, I created a weighted average, giving a lower level in the minors only two-thirds the weight of the one above it. So, AA counts two-thirds as much as AAA, high-A counts two-thirds as much as AA, etc. By the time we hit bottom, the Rookie League gets only about one-seventh the credit of AAA.
Why two-thirds? Well... it seems reasonable. I’m sure I (or someone) could look into the stats and devise a better weight for each level, but for the purpose of this simple exercise, two-thirds will suffice. Now, how do McCarthy and Danks match up:
| Minors, Weighted | RA |
ERA |
Opp. Avg. |
HR% |
BB% |
SO% |
| McCarthy | 3.94 | 3.71 | .230 | 2.7% | 5.6% | 28.2% |
| Danks | 5.35 | 4.58 | .262 | 2.9% | 8.9% | 23.3% |
Again, McCarthy runs the table, and Danks’s weighted RA jumps to an uncomfortable 5.35 (21% of his runs in AAA were unearned.)
Parks
Chicago’s US Cellular Field plays nearly as hitter-friendly as Texas’s Ballpark. Cellular had a run factor of 1.05 versus the Ballpark’s 1.08 in 2006. Cellular depresses singles, doubles and triples but allows more homers and walks. Translating McCarthy’s statistics to Arlington increases his ERA only by about 0.05.
Intentional Walks
Ozzie Guillen ordered more intentional walks than any AL team and more than nine NL teams last season. Nine of McCarthy’s 33 walks were intentional. He got off easy; Neal Cotts issued seven free passes in just 30 innings. Losing the IBBs decreases McCarthy’s walk rate from 3.5 to 2.6 per nine innings.
Luck
McCarthy has permitted an uncommonly low hit rate on balls in play of .252 in the Majors. The White Sox as a whole allowed a .290 average on balls in play during 2005-2006. Perhaps McCarthy has a genuine ability to depress hits, but the probability of him continuing to allow an average 48 points below his teammates is very remote. Giving him a team-average hit rate in 2006 results in ten more hits allowed and a full run added to his ERA.
Earned Run Average
Pitchers who allow a high number of unearned runs usually aren’t as good as their ERAs would suggest. For example, in 2005 Kevin Millwood had an ERA of 2.86 but allowed eleven unearned runs (15% of his total), indicating his season was a bit of a fluke.
McCarthy has allowed zero unearned runs in 152 innings. He has a career ERA+ of 104, but his RA+ is 112. In 2006, he had a Component ERA (a Bill James creation that estimates what the pitcher’s ERA “should be” based on peripheral stats) of just 4.10 compared to his actual ERA of 4.68. (Note that the Component ERA does not compensate for his abnormally low hit rate on balls in play. Again, giving him a typical hit rate increases his ERA and RA by a run.)
Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM
December 28, 2006
Quiroz signed
Texas signed catcher GUILLERMO QUIROZ to a Major League contract and added him to the 40-man roster.
Once a well-regarded prospect, Quiroz has toiled for eight years with only 98 MLB plate appearances to his credit. He peaked statistically in 2003, batting .282/.372/.518 for AA New Haven (Toronto system), and has bounced between AAA and the Majors ever since. He did hit .304/.359/.428 for AAA Tacoma last year, and as a 25-year-old, may yet mature into a decent MLB backup. Anything that might improve upon Miguel Ojeda would be most welcome. With his signing, Texas has filled its 40-man roster.
The Rangers also signed pitcher Mike Wood to a minor deal after waiving him a few weeks ago. They also signed former Twin reliever Willie Eyre, who should spend most or all of 2007 regaling the Redhawk faithful with his presence.
Posted by Lucas at 09:49 PM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Right Fielders
Here’s your disaster.
| Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
| M. DeRosa | 37% |
.783 |
90 |
.347 |
99 |
.436 |
91 |
30 |
4 |
29 |
7.3% |
19.6% |
| K. Mench | 35% |
.824 |
99 |
.345 |
99 |
.479 |
100 |
26 |
10 |
36 |
6.6% |
14.0% |
| N. Cruz | 20% |
.626 |
51 |
.261 |
75 |
.365 |
76 |
14 |
5 |
21 |
5.3% |
22.6% |
| 9 others | 7% |
.485 |
17 |
.208 |
60 |
.277 |
58 |
3 |
0 |
9 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| TEAM | .743 |
80 |
.319 |
91 |
.424 |
89 |
73 |
19 |
95 |
6.3% |
19.4% |
|
| AL Average | - |
.828 |
- |
.350 |
- |
.478 |
- |
92 |
24 |
94 |
8.2% |
16.7% |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
14 |
- |
13 |
- |
14 |
14 |
10 |
7 |
14 |
11 |
Texas’s variety pack of right fielders posted a line of .271/.319/.424. That may only sound “bad,” not “really really bad,” but right field is for offense. Among the eight fielding positions plus DH, AL right fielders ranked first in batting average, third in OBP and second in slugging percentage.
The Rangers did not keep up. They ranked next-to-last in the league in on-base percentage, last in slugging, last in runs scored, and last in walk rate. Mark DeRosa batted .295/.347/.436, mostly later in the season after he’d cooled off. Now, that line compares quite favorably to DeRosa’s previous output from 1998 to 2005, but as an American League right fielder in 2006, not so much. Kevin Mench basically held his ground, and Nelson Cruz had a tough rookie season.
AL Right Fielders
| TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| Chicago Sox | .958 |
129 |
.376 |
107 |
.582 |
122 |
111 |
44 |
129 |
| LA Angels | .885 |
118 |
.363 |
104 |
.522 |
114 |
91 |
33 |
116 |
| Toronto | .876 |
110 |
.354 |
102 |
.522 |
108 |
104 |
28 |
111 |
| Baltimore | .851 |
108 |
.354 |
102 |
.497 |
106 |
89 |
26 |
86 |
| NY Yankees | .814 |
100 |
.357 |
103 |
.456 |
97 |
93 |
22 |
101 |
| Detroit | .808 |
99 |
.344 |
99 |
.463 |
101 |
90 |
26 |
103 |
| Minnesota | .796 |
99 |
.348 |
102 |
.447 |
97 |
109 |
20 |
104 |
| Oakland | .793 |
98 |
.358 |
104 |
.435 |
94 |
87 |
18 |
93 |
| Seattle | .778 |
97 |
.371 |
108 |
.407 |
90 |
99 |
10 |
53 |
| Cleveland | .784 |
96 |
.339 |
98 |
.445 |
97 |
91 |
20 |
89 |
| Tampa Bay | .795 |
93 |
.310 |
89 |
.485 |
103 |
83 |
33 |
76 |
| Boston | .777 |
92 |
.352 |
101 |
.425 |
91 |
84 |
17 |
77 |
| Kansas City | .777 |
87 |
.332 |
93 |
.445 |
94 |
88 |
16 |
81 |
| Texas | .743 |
80 |
.319 |
91 |
.424 |
89 |
73 |
19 |
95 |
Best-hitting right fielders: Chicago’s Jermaine Dye lapped the field, including LA’s Vlad.
Worst: See above.
Posted by Lucas at 01:37 PM
December 25, 2006
Merry Christmas
Posted by Lucas at 02:04 AM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Center Fielders
| Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
| G. Matthews | 89% |
.875 |
125 |
.375 |
112 |
.500 |
113 |
102 |
19 |
75 |
8.6% |
13.8% |
| 6 others | 11% |
.272 |
(29) |
.134 |
40 |
.138 |
31 |
4 |
0 |
7 |
2.4% |
40.2% |
| TEAM | - |
.807 |
107 |
.349 |
104 |
.457 |
103 |
106 |
19 |
82 |
8.0% |
16.7% |
| AL Average | - |
.778 |
- |
.335 |
- |
.443 |
- |
95 |
19 |
74 |
7.5% |
16.9% |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
5 |
- |
4 |
- |
6 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
I’d guess Gary Matthews has no more than a 10% chance of justifying his contract. That’s not to diminish his outstanding final season in Texas. Center field has plagued the Rangers since the team logo was a cowboy hat perched on a baseball (see upper left). For one season, Matthews eradicated that plague with solid defense and an astonishing bat. New center fielder Kenny Lofton may outhit Matthews next year, but he won’t surpass Matthews’s 2006.
Laynce Nix, Adrian Brown, Jerry Hairston, Freddy Guzman, and Brad Wilkerson (1 at-bat) combined to go 9-for-80 (.113) with two walks. Good times.
AL Center Fielders
| TEAM | OPS |
OPS+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| Cleveland | 0.920 |
142 |
0.378 |
115 |
0.541 |
127 |
136 |
29 |
78 |
| Toronto | 0.915 |
132 |
0.364 |
109 |
0.551 |
123 |
106 |
34 |
113 |
| Minnesota | 0.803 |
112 |
0.334 |
102 |
0.468 |
109 |
102 |
32 |
99 |
| NY Yankees | 0.806 |
110 |
0.345 |
104 |
0.461 |
106 |
121 |
26 |
84 |
| Texas | 0.807 |
107 |
0.349 |
104 |
0.457 |
103 |
106 |
19 |
82 |
| Detroit | 0.777 |
104 |
0.330 |
99 |
0.447 |
105 |
101 |
22 |
76 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.758 |
96 |
0.314 |
94 |
0.443 |
102 |
94 |
21 |
79 |
| LA Angels | 0.733 |
95 |
0.345 |
104 |
0.388 |
91 |
87 |
10 |
71 |
| Oakland | 0.736 |
95 |
0.333 |
101 |
0.403 |
94 |
83 |
11 |
76 |
| Kansas City | 0.741 |
92 |
0.351 |
103 |
0.390 |
89 |
83 |
8 |
62 |
| Boston | 0.713 |
87 |
0.326 |
98 |
0.388 |
89 |
87 |
13 |
66 |
| Baltimore | 0.714 |
85 |
0.297 |
89 |
0.418 |
96 |
83 |
21 |
67 |
| Seattle | 0.656 |
75 |
0.294 |
89 |
0.362 |
86 |
80 |
11 |
42 |
| Chicago Sox | 0.672 |
73 |
0.302 |
90 |
0.370 |
83 |
67 |
12 |
47 |
Best-hitting center fielders: Cleveland, in the form of Grady Sizemore.
Worst: The Chicago White Sox, a combination of Brian Anderson (a terrific fielder who couldn’t hit) and Rob Mackowiak (overmatched in center but adequate at the plate). Seattle gets dishonorable mention with its three-headed monster of Jeremy Reed, Willie Bloomquist and Adam Jones (until Ichiro! took over).
Posted by Lucas at 02:01 AM
December 23, 2006
Gigantic Trade
Texas has traded pitchers JOHN DANKS, NICK MASSET and JACOB RASNER to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher BRANDON MCCARTHY and outfielder DAVID PAISANO.
And here I am, doing Christmas with the in-laws (XM radio! Two bottles of wine!), blithely assuming MLB would be taking the weekend off, caught totally off-guard.
Ultra-quick first impression: I'm not sure I agree, but I understand. And Jon Daniels has a huge pair.
Posted by Lucas at 11:30 PM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Left Fielders
| Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
| B. Wilkerson | 45% |
.777 |
92 |
.325 |
93 |
.452 |
99 |
52 |
14 |
41 |
10.9% |
32.0% |
| C. Lee | 33% |
.882 |
117 |
.364 |
104 |
.517 |
113 |
36 |
8 |
30 |
7.7% |
11.3% |
| K. Mench | 9% |
.798 |
97 |
.333 |
96 |
.464 |
101 |
4 |
1 |
11 |
5.1% |
10.2% |
| J. Hairston | 8% |
.686 |
74 |
.360 |
103 |
.326 |
71 |
8 |
0 |
3 |
14.0% |
16.0% |
| 6 others | 5% |
.813 |
99 |
.313 |
90 |
.500 |
109 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
6.3% |
15.6% |
| TEAM | - |
.809 |
100 |
.341 |
98 |
.469 |
102 |
103 |
24 |
90 |
9.3% |
21.2% |
| AL Average | - |
.807 |
- |
.349 |
- |
.459 |
- |
94 |
20 |
85 |
8.9% |
15.9% |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
6 |
- |
7 |
- |
6 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
On the whole, Texas left fielders didn’t pull the team underwater as far as you might think. Wilkerson, Mench, and Hairston (who received fifty[!] plate appearances in left – at least he got on base…) did, on their own, but then Carlos Lee arrived and messed things up by batting well. For the real batting disaster, one must look over to right field.
AL Left Fielders
| TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| Boston | .977 |
145 |
.423 |
122 |
.553 |
123 |
101 |
36 |
105 |
| Seattle | .871 |
122 |
.354 |
103 |
.516 |
118 |
105 |
33 |
124 |
| Oakland | .849 |
114 |
.355 |
103 |
.494 |
111 |
109 |
31 |
86 |
| Toronto | .850 |
112 |
.395 |
114 |
.455 |
98 |
96 |
15 |
71 |
| Tampa Bay | .817 |
104 |
.344 |
99 |
.473 |
105 |
97 |
20 |
83 |
| Texas | .809 |
100 |
.341 |
98 |
.469 |
102 |
103 |
24 |
90 |
| NY Yankees | .778 |
97 |
.360 |
105 |
.419 |
93 |
102 |
13 |
72 |
| LA Angels | .777 |
97 |
.335 |
97 |
.442 |
100 |
83 |
19 |
91 |
| Detroit | .782 |
96 |
.303 |
87 |
.479 |
109 |
94 |
34 |
98 |
| Kansas City | .791 |
95 |
.342 |
97 |
.449 |
99 |
102 |
16 |
94 |
| Minnesota | .746 |
91 |
.329 |
97 |
.417 |
94 |
74 |
17 |
78 |
| Chicago Sox | .720 |
80 |
.341 |
98 |
.379 |
82 |
98 |
4 |
57 |
| Cleveland | .704 |
80 |
.311 |
91 |
.393 |
89 |
98 |
13 |
76 |
| Baltimore | .682 |
73 |
.322 |
93 |
.359 |
80 |
60 |
7 |
66 |
Best-hitting left fielders: Boston. Manny. Seattle ranks a surprising second thanks to a terrific effort from Raul Ibanez.
Worst: Baltimore. Jeff Conine and Brandon Fahey make a bad corner-outfield tandem? Well knock me down with a feather! (Fahey, by the way, was a Texas Longhorn on the ’02 championship team.)
Posted by Lucas at 09:33 AM
December 18, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Shortstops
| Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
| M. Young | 95% |
.785 |
109 |
.346 |
104 |
.438 |
105 |
86 |
12 |
93 |
6.7% |
13.2% |
| 4 others | 5% |
.897 |
140 |
.412 |
124 |
.485 |
116 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
2.9% |
8.8% |
| TEAM | - |
.790 |
110 |
.349 |
105 |
.441 |
105 |
96 |
12 |
98 |
6.5% |
13.0% |
| AL Average | - |
.751 |
- |
.333 |
- |
.418 |
- |
85 |
13 |
74 |
6.9% |
14.5% |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
4 |
- |
5 |
- |
4 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
9 |
5 |
After four consecutive years of increasingly stunning improvement culminating in last year’s astounding line of .331/.385/.513, Michael Young finally regressed, hitting .314/.356/.459 overall and “only” .303/.346/.438 as a shortstop. As such, he declined from brilliant to very good, lagging only behind the Big Three of Jeter, Tejada, and Carlos Guillen.
Young doesn’t require a backup, but those who did squeeze in a few innings at shortstop hit very well (dollops of Mark DeRosa, Joaquin Arias, and Jerry Hairston).
AL Shortstops
| TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| Detroit | .893 |
143 |
.393 |
118 |
.500 |
124 |
105 |
19 |
81 |
| NY Yankees | .893 |
142 |
.412 |
125 |
.481 |
117 |
126 |
15 |
100 |
| Baltimore | .866 |
133 |
.382 |
115 |
.484 |
118 |
101 |
22 |
91 |
| Texas | .790 |
110 |
.349 |
105 |
.441 |
105 |
96 |
12 |
98 |
| LA Angels | .742 |
102 |
.338 |
102 |
.403 |
100 |
102 |
9 |
79 |
| Minnesota | .713 |
97 |
.342 |
105 |
.372 |
92 |
60 |
3 |
50 |
| Seattle | .708 |
95 |
.310 |
94 |
.398 |
100 |
72 |
8 |
48 |
| Oakland | .710 |
94 |
.333 |
101 |
.376 |
93 |
82 |
13 |
65 |
| Cleveland | .699 |
92 |
.315 |
96 |
.384 |
96 |
88 |
14 |
78 |
| Toronto | .716 |
90 |
.321 |
97 |
.395 |
93 |
81 |
12 |
67 |
| Chicago Sox | .712 |
87 |
.271 |
81 |
.442 |
105 |
66 |
24 |
92 |
| Tampa Bay | .690 |
86 |
.305 |
92 |
.386 |
94 |
80 |
16 |
53 |
| Boston | .674 |
82 |
.306 |
92 |
.368 |
90 |
70 |
10 |
63 |
| Kansas City | .575 |
53 |
.261 |
77 |
.314 |
76 |
58 |
9 |
68 |
Best-hitting shortstops: Detroit (mostly the aforementioned Guillen, who hit .320/.400/.519) bested New York (Derek Jeter) in OPS, but the Yankees’ advantage in OBP makes him best by a slight margin.
Worst: Kansas City’s Angel Berroa just barely qualified for the batting title with 503 plate appearances and still managed to make almost 400 outs. KC’s team line of .229/.261/.314 and P-OPS+ 53 were the worst in the American League at any position. In essence, Kansas City’s shortstop’s hit about as well as Eric Milton (.224/.250/.327).
Posted by Lucas at 06:31 PM
December 15, 2006
Weekend Photo
Fredericksburg, Texas, 25 November 2006
Posted by Lucas at 08:39 PM
December 14, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Third Basemen
| Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
| H. Blalock | 75% |
.777 |
98 |
.346 |
102 |
.431 |
96 |
67 |
14 |
80 |
8.4% |
13.6% |
| M. DeRosa | 24% |
.767 |
95 |
.345 |
102 |
.422 |
94 |
21 |
5 |
22 |
9.8% |
19.0% |
| 3 others | 2% |
.899 |
132 |
.455 |
134 |
.444 |
99 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| TEAM | - |
.777 |
98 |
.348 |
102 |
.429 |
95 |
90 |
19 |
102 |
8.9% |
14.7% |
| AL Average | - |
.790 |
- |
.340 |
- |
.451 |
- |
91 |
22 |
89 |
8.8% |
16.1% |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
8 |
- |
4 |
- |
9 |
8 |
10 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
Texas third basemen performed slightly better than I expected, finishing in the middle of the AL pack. Most of Hank Blalock’s death spiral occurred while DH’ing, and at third he at least reached base at an acceptable rate. Much more on him to come. Mark DeRosa spent much of the last month at third and had cooled off by then.
AL Third Basemen
| TEAM | OPS |
OPS+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| NY Yankees | .909 |
133 |
.389 |
116 |
.520 |
117 |
117 |
36 |
124 |
| Kansas City | .859 |
116 |
.366 |
106 |
.493 |
110 |
96 |
21 |
96 |
| Boston | .823 |
110 |
.341 |
101 |
.482 |
109 |
88 |
24 |
90 |
| Toronto | .820 |
107 |
.349 |
103 |
.472 |
104 |
105 |
35 |
110 |
| Seattle | .775 |
102 |
.322 |
96 |
.453 |
106 |
91 |
25 |
91 |
| Detroit | .785 |
102 |
.318 |
94 |
.467 |
108 |
86 |
27 |
85 |
| Chicago Sox | .796 |
99 |
.320 |
94 |
.476 |
105 |
83 |
30 |
97 |
| Texas | .777 |
98 |
.348 |
102 |
.429 |
95 |
90 |
19 |
102 |
| Tampa Bay | .768 |
97 |
.334 |
99 |
.434 |
98 |
71 |
20 |
78 |
| Oakland | .742 |
93 |
.335 |
100 |
.408 |
93 |
84 |
24 |
81 |
| LA Angels | .736 |
91 |
.330 |
98 |
.405 |
93 |
99 |
16 |
69 |
| Baltimore | .735 |
90 |
.342 |
101 |
.393 |
89 |
99 |
16 |
89 |
| Minnesota | .703 |
85 |
.329 |
99 |
.374 |
86 |
93 |
8 |
64 |
| Cleveland | .688 |
80 |
.309 |
92 |
.379 |
88 |
73 |
12 |
75 |
Best-hitting AL third basemen: Alex Rodriguez had a poor season (by his lofty standards) and was still, easily, the best-hitting third baseman in the league. Incidentally, the Silver Slugger award went to Joe Crede, who trailed Rodriguez in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, home runs, runs batted in, and walks. Voters consist of an apparently unengaged collection of league managers and coaches.
Worst: Cleveland scored 80 more runs than in 2005 in spite of Aaron Boone (.248/.311/.369) and Andy Marte (.226/.287/.421).
Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM
December 13, 2006
Arbitration
Texas tendered contracts to arbitration-eligible pitchers RICK BAUER, JOAQUIN BENOIT and AKINORI OTSUKA and outfielder Brad Wilkerson. Texas did not offer a contract to pitcher MIKE WOOD.
I hadn’t given any thought to Wood being eligible for arbitration. Otherwise, no unexpected moves.
Posted by Lucas at 12:46 PM
December 12, 2006
Gagne Signed
Texas signed reliever ERIC GAGNE to a one-year contract for $6 million with (allegedly) $5 million in incentives.
The ultimate high-risk high-reward signing. Gagne has pitched in only sixteen games over the past two years, missing time with nerve-replacement surgery on his elbow and disc surgery on his back. So why drop no fewer than $6 million on a two-year hospital resident, particularly when the bullpen is already a team strength? Here’s why:
Hitters Against Gagne by Plate Appearance, 2002-2006:
| Strikeout | 38.7% |
| Out in play | 36.8% |
| Single | 10.8% |
| Walk | 6.2% |
| Double | 2.9% |
| Homer | 1.5% |
| Hit by pitch | 1.1% |
| Sac bunt | 1.1% |
| Sac fly | 0.4% |
| Reached on error | 0.3% |
| Triple | 0.2% |
Opponents have batted .169/.229/.254 against him during the past five years. He had a WARP of over ten in 2003, an absolutely outrageous number for a relief pitcher. If he returns most of the way to his prior form, he could be worth five to seven wins. Gagne’s presence also makes a trade of Aki Otsuka (packaged for starting pitching, presumably) more likely.
Posted by Lucas at 06:14 PM
December 11, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Second Basemen
Second base has become the hitter’s graveyard. Among the nine AL positions (fielders plus DH), 2Bs had the fewest homers (by 34) and the worst walk rate. They ranked third in average but only seventh in OBP and dead last in slugging. John Hart must be aghast.
| Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
| I. Kinsler | 72% |
.802 |
117 |
.347 |
104 |
.455 |
113 |
65 |
14 |
55 |
8.7% |
13.9% |
| M. DeRosa | 16% |
1.018 |
175 |
.429 |
129 |
.589 |
146 |
20 |
3 |
15 |
7.8% |
14.6% |
| D. Jimenez | 9% |
.692 |
89 |
.339 |
102 |
.353 |
88 |
6 |
1 |
8 |
13.6% |
10.2% |
| 3 others | 3% |
.417 |
16 |
.250 |
75 |
.167 |
41 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| TEAM | .816 |
121 |
.357 |
107 |
.459 |
114 |
93 |
18 |
78 |
9.0% |
14.3% |
|
| AL Average | - |
.735 |
- |
.333 |
- |
.402 |
- |
83 |
11 |
71 |
6.7% |
12.9% |
| Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
Happily, the Rangers bucked that trend. Ian Kinsler had not only a fine rookie season but a fine season among all second basemen. Of the fourteen AL 2Bs with the most plate appearances, Kinsler ranked seventh in average, sixth in OBP, and third in slugging. Only Tad Iguchi and Robinson Cano had more homers. Forget about potential. Kinsler already stands with the league’s best hitters at his position.
Kinsler didn’t qualify for the batting title because a thumb injury cost him several weeks. During that time, Rogers Hornsby arose from the dead and assumed the form of Mark DeRosa. I understand that Hornsby’s estate will receive a portion of DeRosa’s $13 million contract.
AL Second Basemen
| TEAM | OPS |
OPS+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
| NY Yankees | .813 |
123 |
.343 |
104 |
.470 |
119 |
80 |
14 |
99 |
| Texas | .816 |
121 |
.357 |
107 |
.459 |
114 |
93 |
18 |
78 |
| Chicago Sox | .772 |
109 |
.351 |
105 |
.420 |
104 |
117 |
20 |
86 |
| Cleveland | .745 |
108 |
.335 |
102 |
.410 |
106 |
80 |
12 |
72 |
| Seattle | .734 |
106 |
.330 |
101 |
.404 |
106 |
85 |
10 |
82 |
| LA Angels | .734 |
104 |
.331 |
100 |
.403 |
104 |
62 |
7 |
77 |
| Baltimore | .731 |
102 |
.339 |
102 |
.391 |
99 |
93 |
11 |
64 |
| Kansas City | .743 |
101 |
.340 |
100 |
.403 |
101 |
104 |
8 |
62 |
| Minnesota | .710 |
101 |
.353 |
109 |
.357 |
92 |
89 |
3 |
52 |
| Detroit | .698 |
94 |
.328 |
99 |
.370 |
96 |
80 |
6 |
73 |
| Boston | .698 |
93 |
.338 |
102 |
.361 |
92 |
82 |
7 |
61 |
| Oakland | .675 |