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December 31, 2006
New Year's Eve Photo
A clock that belonged to my grandmother, who passed away last March.
May your 2007 be safe and fulfilling.
Posted by Lucas at 08:32 PM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Designated Hitters
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
P. Nevin | 30% |
.730 |
75 |
.309 |
88 |
.421 |
88 |
25 |
9 |
31 |
10.9% |
19.3% |
H. Blalock | 20% |
.532 |
29 |
.244 |
69 |
.288 |
60 |
9 |
2 |
9 |
6.3% |
22.2% |
M. Stairs | 12% |
.653 |
57 |
.273 |
78 |
.380 |
79 |
6 |
3 |
10 |
6.6% |
25.0% |
K. Mench | 9% |
.701 |
70 |
.321 |
91 |
.380 |
79 |
6 |
1 |
3 |
9.1% |
7.3% |
J. Botts | 8% |
.693 |
69 |
.321 |
91 |
.372 |
77 |
8 |
1 |
5 |
15.7% |
33.3% |
B. Wilkerson | 7% |
.527 |
27 |
.227 |
65 |
.300 |
62 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
9.1% |
31.8% |
M. Young | 5% |
1.396 |
232 |
.543 |
155 |
.853 |
177 |
7 |
2 |
10 |
2.9% |
8.6% |
C. Lee | 5% |
.981 |
135 |
.400 |
114 |
.581 |
121 |
6 |
1 |
5 |
8.8% |
2.9% |
5 others | 4% |
.839 |
102 |
.357 |
102 |
.481 |
100 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
TEAM | .719 |
73 |
.309 |
88 |
.410 |
85 |
71 |
21 |
76 |
8.7% |
19.7% |
|
AL Average | - |
.832 |
- |
.351 |
- |
.481 |
- |
83 |
28 |
93 |
11.1% |
18.8% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
12 |
- |
13 |
- |
12 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
Texas DHes leapt from the worst OPS+ in the American League in 2005 to third-worst last season. Are you not suitably impressed? This next bit of information won’t help. Erase Michael Young’s softball line (.529/.543/.853 in seven games) and the remainder drops to – yikes -- .220/.290/.383. Remember, these are “designated hitters.”
As I’d mentioned in May, Nevin’s everyday presence in the middle of the order was a gloomily foregone conclusion despite mounting evidence that he wouldn’t perform. Texas relieved him of his duties just past the season’s one-quarter mark, after which time, for the most part, the situation worsened.
With nothing left to prove in the minors, Jason Botts received only a handful of starts over several weeks before management shuttled him back to Oklahoma. Wilkerson and Mench split the majority of DH starts for a month in a quasi-platoon while Mark DeRosa started every day (deservedly). Matt Stairs came, did nothing, and left. An injured Hank Blalock started mostly at DH during the final three weeks and reached his nadir as a batter. Only Young and Carlos Lee hit with authority.
AL Designated Hitters
TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Cleveland | 1.016 |
150 |
.412 |
119 |
.604 |
131 |
114 |
45 |
137 |
Boston | 1.003 |
143 |
.406 |
116 |
.597 |
127 |
109 |
50 |
131 |
Chicago Sox | .975 |
133 |
.408 |
116 |
.566 |
117 |
117 |
42 |
112 |
Oakland | .881 |
116 |
.368 |
106 |
.513 |
110 |
87 |
40 |
121 |
LA Angels | .849 |
108 |
.356 |
102 |
.492 |
106 |
84 |
28 |
96 |
NY Yankees | .842 |
106 |
.369 |
106 |
.473 |
100 |
104 |
30 |
114 |
Toronto | .811 |
94 |
.338 |
97 |
.473 |
97 |
65 |
16 |
69 |
Kansas City | .787 |
89 |
.348 |
97 |
.439 |
92 |
70 |
21 |
87 |
Detroit | .768 |
88 |
.309 |
88 |
.460 |
99 |
85 |
27 |
90 |
Baltimore | .754 |
85 |
.333 |
95 |
.421 |
90 |
63 |
16 |
71 |
Tampa Bay | .745 |
82 |
.323 |
92 |
.422 |
89 |
74 |
25 |
78 |
Texas | .719 |
73 |
.309 |
88 |
.410 |
85 |
71 |
21 |
76 |
Minnesota | .680 |
71 |
.316 |
92 |
.364 |
78 |
61 |
8 |
60 |
Seattle | .667 |
67 |
.300 |
87 |
.366 |
80 |
59 |
17 |
61 |
Best-hitting DHes: Cleveland has some guy named Hafner. I hear he's pretty good.
Worst: Seattle, a ghastly amalgam of Carl Everett, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and assorted others. Not to suggest Seattle’s acquisition of Jose Vidro was wise, but he will be an upgrade.
Posted by Lucas at 05:39 PM
December 29, 2006
Notes On The McCarthy-Danks Trade
(I’ve been out-of-pocket for a few days, so if I’m repeating someone else’s observations, I apologize…)
Age and Level
As mentioned by Adam yesterday, McCarthy isn’t two years older than Danks, only seventeen months. Because ages as applied to seasons are determined by a player’s age as of July 1, McCarthy is listed as two years older. Here is how McCarthy and Danks have advanced through minors in terms of age:
Age |
McCarthy | Danks |
18 |
Rookie | Rookie, Short-Season |
19 |
Rookie, Short-Season | Low A, High A |
20 |
Short-Season, Low A, High A | High A, AA |
21 |
High A, AA | AA, AAA |
22 |
AAA, Majors | --- |
23 |
Majors | --- |
Danks is only about a year ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy debuted in the Majors at the age of 22 years, 10 months. Danks will turn 22 next April.
Minor Performance
McCarthy clearly has pitched better than Danks in the minors. In addition an ERA nearly a full run lower than Danks, all the peripheral stats favor McCarthy.
Minors | RA |
ERA |
Opp. Avg. |
HR% |
BB% |
SO% |
McCarthy | 3.92 | 3.39 | .236 | 2.3% | 4.9% | 28.5% |
Danks | 4.96 | 4.33 | .256 | 2.6% | 8.6% | 24.1% |
But, stats can mislead. Many pitchers with good minor-league stats in aggregate have a shaky combination of outstanding stats in the low minors and mediocre performances in AA and AAA. To place more importance on higher levels, I created a weighted average, giving a lower level in the minors only two-thirds the weight of the one above it. So, AA counts two-thirds as much as AAA, high-A counts two-thirds as much as AA, etc. By the time we hit bottom, the Rookie League gets only about one-seventh the credit of AAA.
Why two-thirds? Well... it seems reasonable. I’m sure I (or someone) could look into the stats and devise a better weight for each level, but for the purpose of this simple exercise, two-thirds will suffice. Now, how do McCarthy and Danks match up:
Minors, Weighted | RA |
ERA |
Opp. Avg. |
HR% |
BB% |
SO% |
McCarthy | 3.94 | 3.71 | .230 | 2.7% | 5.6% | 28.2% |
Danks | 5.35 | 4.58 | .262 | 2.9% | 8.9% | 23.3% |
Again, McCarthy runs the table, and Danks’s weighted RA jumps to an uncomfortable 5.35 (21% of his runs in AAA were unearned.)
Parks
Chicago’s US Cellular Field plays nearly as hitter-friendly as Texas’s Ballpark. Cellular had a run factor of 1.05 versus the Ballpark’s 1.08 in 2006. Cellular depresses singles, doubles and triples but allows more homers and walks. Translating McCarthy’s statistics to Arlington increases his ERA only by about 0.05.
Intentional Walks
Ozzie Guillen ordered more intentional walks than any AL team and more than nine NL teams last season. Nine of McCarthy’s 33 walks were intentional. He got off easy; Neal Cotts issued seven free passes in just 30 innings. Losing the IBBs decreases McCarthy’s walk rate from 3.5 to 2.6 per nine innings.
Luck
McCarthy has permitted an uncommonly low hit rate on balls in play of .252 in the Majors. The White Sox as a whole allowed a .290 average on balls in play during 2005-2006. Perhaps McCarthy has a genuine ability to depress hits, but the probability of him continuing to allow an average 48 points below his teammates is very remote. Giving him a team-average hit rate in 2006 results in ten more hits allowed and a full run added to his ERA.
Earned Run Average
Pitchers who allow a high number of unearned runs usually aren’t as good as their ERAs would suggest. For example, in 2005 Kevin Millwood had an ERA of 2.86 but allowed eleven unearned runs (15% of his total), indicating his season was a bit of a fluke.
McCarthy has allowed zero unearned runs in 152 innings. He has a career ERA+ of 104, but his RA+ is 112. In 2006, he had a Component ERA (a Bill James creation that estimates what the pitcher’s ERA “should be” based on peripheral stats) of just 4.10 compared to his actual ERA of 4.68. (Note that the Component ERA does not compensate for his abnormally low hit rate on balls in play. Again, giving him a typical hit rate increases his ERA and RA by a run.)
Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM
December 28, 2006
Quiroz signed
Texas signed catcher GUILLERMO QUIROZ to a Major League contract and added him to the 40-man roster.
Once a well-regarded prospect, Quiroz has toiled for eight years with only 98 MLB plate appearances to his credit. He peaked statistically in 2003, batting .282/.372/.518 for AA New Haven (Toronto system), and has bounced between AAA and the Majors ever since. He did hit .304/.359/.428 for AAA Tacoma last year, and as a 25-year-old, may yet mature into a decent MLB backup. Anything that might improve upon Miguel Ojeda would be most welcome. With his signing, Texas has filled its 40-man roster.
The Rangers also signed pitcher Mike Wood to a minor deal after waiving him a few weeks ago. They also signed former Twin reliever Willie Eyre, who should spend most or all of 2007 regaling the Redhawk faithful with his presence.
Posted by Lucas at 09:49 PM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Right Fielders
Here’s your disaster.
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
M. DeRosa | 37% |
.783 |
90 |
.347 |
99 |
.436 |
91 |
30 |
4 |
29 |
7.3% |
19.6% |
K. Mench | 35% |
.824 |
99 |
.345 |
99 |
.479 |
100 |
26 |
10 |
36 |
6.6% |
14.0% |
N. Cruz | 20% |
.626 |
51 |
.261 |
75 |
.365 |
76 |
14 |
5 |
21 |
5.3% |
22.6% |
9 others | 7% |
.485 |
17 |
.208 |
60 |
.277 |
58 |
3 |
0 |
9 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
TEAM | .743 |
80 |
.319 |
91 |
.424 |
89 |
73 |
19 |
95 |
6.3% |
19.4% |
|
AL Average | - |
.828 |
- |
.350 |
- |
.478 |
- |
92 |
24 |
94 |
8.2% |
16.7% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
14 |
- |
13 |
- |
14 |
14 |
10 |
7 |
14 |
11 |
Texas’s variety pack of right fielders posted a line of .271/.319/.424. That may only sound “bad,” not “really really bad,” but right field is for offense. Among the eight fielding positions plus DH, AL right fielders ranked first in batting average, third in OBP and second in slugging percentage.
The Rangers did not keep up. They ranked next-to-last in the league in on-base percentage, last in slugging, last in runs scored, and last in walk rate. Mark DeRosa batted .295/.347/.436, mostly later in the season after he’d cooled off. Now, that line compares quite favorably to DeRosa’s previous output from 1998 to 2005, but as an American League right fielder in 2006, not so much. Kevin Mench basically held his ground, and Nelson Cruz had a tough rookie season.
AL Right Fielders
TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Chicago Sox | .958 |
129 |
.376 |
107 |
.582 |
122 |
111 |
44 |
129 |
LA Angels | .885 |
118 |
.363 |
104 |
.522 |
114 |
91 |
33 |
116 |
Toronto | .876 |
110 |
.354 |
102 |
.522 |
108 |
104 |
28 |
111 |
Baltimore | .851 |
108 |
.354 |
102 |
.497 |
106 |
89 |
26 |
86 |
NY Yankees | .814 |
100 |
.357 |
103 |
.456 |
97 |
93 |
22 |
101 |
Detroit | .808 |
99 |
.344 |
99 |
.463 |
101 |
90 |
26 |
103 |
Minnesota | .796 |
99 |
.348 |
102 |
.447 |
97 |
109 |
20 |
104 |
Oakland | .793 |
98 |
.358 |
104 |
.435 |
94 |
87 |
18 |
93 |
Seattle | .778 |
97 |
.371 |
108 |
.407 |
90 |
99 |
10 |
53 |
Cleveland | .784 |
96 |
.339 |
98 |
.445 |
97 |
91 |
20 |
89 |
Tampa Bay | .795 |
93 |
.310 |
89 |
.485 |
103 |
83 |
33 |
76 |
Boston | .777 |
92 |
.352 |
101 |
.425 |
91 |
84 |
17 |
77 |
Kansas City | .777 |
87 |
.332 |
93 |
.445 |
94 |
88 |
16 |
81 |
Texas | .743 |
80 |
.319 |
91 |
.424 |
89 |
73 |
19 |
95 |
Best-hitting right fielders: Chicago’s Jermaine Dye lapped the field, including LA’s Vlad.
Worst: See above.
Posted by Lucas at 01:37 PM
December 25, 2006
Merry Christmas
Posted by Lucas at 02:04 AM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Center Fielders
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
G. Matthews | 89% |
.875 |
125 |
.375 |
112 |
.500 |
113 |
102 |
19 |
75 |
8.6% |
13.8% |
6 others | 11% |
.272 |
(29) |
.134 |
40 |
.138 |
31 |
4 |
0 |
7 |
2.4% |
40.2% |
TEAM | - |
.807 |
107 |
.349 |
104 |
.457 |
103 |
106 |
19 |
82 |
8.0% |
16.7% |
AL Average | - |
.778 |
- |
.335 |
- |
.443 |
- |
95 |
19 |
74 |
7.5% |
16.9% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
5 |
- |
4 |
- |
6 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
I’d guess Gary Matthews has no more than a 10% chance of justifying his contract. That’s not to diminish his outstanding final season in Texas. Center field has plagued the Rangers since the team logo was a cowboy hat perched on a baseball (see upper left). For one season, Matthews eradicated that plague with solid defense and an astonishing bat. New center fielder Kenny Lofton may outhit Matthews next year, but he won’t surpass Matthews’s 2006.
Laynce Nix, Adrian Brown, Jerry Hairston, Freddy Guzman, and Brad Wilkerson (1 at-bat) combined to go 9-for-80 (.113) with two walks. Good times.
AL Center Fielders
TEAM | OPS |
OPS+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Cleveland | 0.920 |
142 |
0.378 |
115 |
0.541 |
127 |
136 |
29 |
78 |
Toronto | 0.915 |
132 |
0.364 |
109 |
0.551 |
123 |
106 |
34 |
113 |
Minnesota | 0.803 |
112 |
0.334 |
102 |
0.468 |
109 |
102 |
32 |
99 |
NY Yankees | 0.806 |
110 |
0.345 |
104 |
0.461 |
106 |
121 |
26 |
84 |
Texas | 0.807 |
107 |
0.349 |
104 |
0.457 |
103 |
106 |
19 |
82 |
Detroit | 0.777 |
104 |
0.330 |
99 |
0.447 |
105 |
101 |
22 |
76 |
Tampa Bay | 0.758 |
96 |
0.314 |
94 |
0.443 |
102 |
94 |
21 |
79 |
LA Angels | 0.733 |
95 |
0.345 |
104 |
0.388 |
91 |
87 |
10 |
71 |
Oakland | 0.736 |
95 |
0.333 |
101 |
0.403 |
94 |
83 |
11 |
76 |
Kansas City | 0.741 |
92 |
0.351 |
103 |
0.390 |
89 |
83 |
8 |
62 |
Boston | 0.713 |
87 |
0.326 |
98 |
0.388 |
89 |
87 |
13 |
66 |
Baltimore | 0.714 |
85 |
0.297 |
89 |
0.418 |
96 |
83 |
21 |
67 |
Seattle | 0.656 |
75 |
0.294 |
89 |
0.362 |
86 |
80 |
11 |
42 |
Chicago Sox | 0.672 |
73 |
0.302 |
90 |
0.370 |
83 |
67 |
12 |
47 |
Best-hitting center fielders: Cleveland, in the form of Grady Sizemore.
Worst: The Chicago White Sox, a combination of Brian Anderson (a terrific fielder who couldn’t hit) and Rob Mackowiak (overmatched in center but adequate at the plate). Seattle gets dishonorable mention with its three-headed monster of Jeremy Reed, Willie Bloomquist and Adam Jones (until Ichiro! took over).
Posted by Lucas at 02:01 AM
December 23, 2006
Gigantic Trade
Texas has traded pitchers JOHN DANKS, NICK MASSET and JACOB RASNER to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher BRANDON MCCARTHY and outfielder DAVID PAISANO.
And here I am, doing Christmas with the in-laws (XM radio! Two bottles of wine!), blithely assuming MLB would be taking the weekend off, caught totally off-guard.
Ultra-quick first impression: I'm not sure I agree, but I understand. And Jon Daniels has a huge pair.
Posted by Lucas at 11:30 PM
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Left Fielders
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
B. Wilkerson | 45% |
.777 |
92 |
.325 |
93 |
.452 |
99 |
52 |
14 |
41 |
10.9% |
32.0% |
C. Lee | 33% |
.882 |
117 |
.364 |
104 |
.517 |
113 |
36 |
8 |
30 |
7.7% |
11.3% |
K. Mench | 9% |
.798 |
97 |
.333 |
96 |
.464 |
101 |
4 |
1 |
11 |
5.1% |
10.2% |
J. Hairston | 8% |
.686 |
74 |
.360 |
103 |
.326 |
71 |
8 |
0 |
3 |
14.0% |
16.0% |
6 others | 5% |
.813 |
99 |
.313 |
90 |
.500 |
109 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
6.3% |
15.6% |
TEAM | - |
.809 |
100 |
.341 |
98 |
.469 |
102 |
103 |
24 |
90 |
9.3% |
21.2% |
AL Average | - |
.807 |
- |
.349 |
- |
.459 |
- |
94 |
20 |
85 |
8.9% |
15.9% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
6 |
- |
7 |
- |
6 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
On the whole, Texas left fielders didn’t pull the team underwater as far as you might think. Wilkerson, Mench, and Hairston (who received fifty[!] plate appearances in left – at least he got on base…) did, on their own, but then Carlos Lee arrived and messed things up by batting well. For the real batting disaster, one must look over to right field.
AL Left Fielders
TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Boston | .977 |
145 |
.423 |
122 |
.553 |
123 |
101 |
36 |
105 |
Seattle | .871 |
122 |
.354 |
103 |
.516 |
118 |
105 |
33 |
124 |
Oakland | .849 |
114 |
.355 |
103 |
.494 |
111 |
109 |
31 |
86 |
Toronto | .850 |
112 |
.395 |
114 |
.455 |
98 |
96 |
15 |
71 |
Tampa Bay | .817 |
104 |
.344 |
99 |
.473 |
105 |
97 |
20 |
83 |
Texas | .809 |
100 |
.341 |
98 |
.469 |
102 |
103 |
24 |
90 |
NY Yankees | .778 |
97 |
.360 |
105 |
.419 |
93 |
102 |
13 |
72 |
LA Angels | .777 |
97 |
.335 |
97 |
.442 |
100 |
83 |
19 |
91 |
Detroit | .782 |
96 |
.303 |
87 |
.479 |
109 |
94 |
34 |
98 |
Kansas City | .791 |
95 |
.342 |
97 |
.449 |
99 |
102 |
16 |
94 |
Minnesota | .746 |
91 |
.329 |
97 |
.417 |
94 |
74 |
17 |
78 |
Chicago Sox | .720 |
80 |
.341 |
98 |
.379 |
82 |
98 |
4 |
57 |
Cleveland | .704 |
80 |
.311 |
91 |
.393 |
89 |
98 |
13 |
76 |
Baltimore | .682 |
73 |
.322 |
93 |
.359 |
80 |
60 |
7 |
66 |
Best-hitting left fielders: Boston. Manny. Seattle ranks a surprising second thanks to a terrific effort from Raul Ibanez.
Worst: Baltimore. Jeff Conine and Brandon Fahey make a bad corner-outfield tandem? Well knock me down with a feather! (Fahey, by the way, was a Texas Longhorn on the ’02 championship team.)
Posted by Lucas at 09:33 AM
December 18, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Shortstops
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
M. Young | 95% |
.785 |
109 |
.346 |
104 |
.438 |
105 |
86 |
12 |
93 |
6.7% |
13.2% |
4 others | 5% |
.897 |
140 |
.412 |
124 |
.485 |
116 |
10 |
0 |
5 |
2.9% |
8.8% |
TEAM | - |
.790 |
110 |
.349 |
105 |
.441 |
105 |
96 |
12 |
98 |
6.5% |
13.0% |
AL Average | - |
.751 |
- |
.333 |
- |
.418 |
- |
85 |
13 |
74 |
6.9% |
14.5% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
4 |
- |
5 |
- |
4 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
9 |
5 |
After four consecutive years of increasingly stunning improvement culminating in last year’s astounding line of .331/.385/.513, Michael Young finally regressed, hitting .314/.356/.459 overall and “only” .303/.346/.438 as a shortstop. As such, he declined from brilliant to very good, lagging only behind the Big Three of Jeter, Tejada, and Carlos Guillen.
Young doesn’t require a backup, but those who did squeeze in a few innings at shortstop hit very well (dollops of Mark DeRosa, Joaquin Arias, and Jerry Hairston).
AL Shortstops
TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Detroit | .893 |
143 |
.393 |
118 |
.500 |
124 |
105 |
19 |
81 |
NY Yankees | .893 |
142 |
.412 |
125 |
.481 |
117 |
126 |
15 |
100 |
Baltimore | .866 |
133 |
.382 |
115 |
.484 |
118 |
101 |
22 |
91 |
Texas | .790 |
110 |
.349 |
105 |
.441 |
105 |
96 |
12 |
98 |
LA Angels | .742 |
102 |
.338 |
102 |
.403 |
100 |
102 |
9 |
79 |
Minnesota | .713 |
97 |
.342 |
105 |
.372 |
92 |
60 |
3 |
50 |
Seattle | .708 |
95 |
.310 |
94 |
.398 |
100 |
72 |
8 |
48 |
Oakland | .710 |
94 |
.333 |
101 |
.376 |
93 |
82 |
13 |
65 |
Cleveland | .699 |
92 |
.315 |
96 |
.384 |
96 |
88 |
14 |
78 |
Toronto | .716 |
90 |
.321 |
97 |
.395 |
93 |
81 |
12 |
67 |
Chicago Sox | .712 |
87 |
.271 |
81 |
.442 |
105 |
66 |
24 |
92 |
Tampa Bay | .690 |
86 |
.305 |
92 |
.386 |
94 |
80 |
16 |
53 |
Boston | .674 |
82 |
.306 |
92 |
.368 |
90 |
70 |
10 |
63 |
Kansas City | .575 |
53 |
.261 |
77 |
.314 |
76 |
58 |
9 |
68 |
Best-hitting shortstops: Detroit (mostly the aforementioned Guillen, who hit .320/.400/.519) bested New York (Derek Jeter) in OPS, but the Yankees’ advantage in OBP makes him best by a slight margin.
Worst: Kansas City’s Angel Berroa just barely qualified for the batting title with 503 plate appearances and still managed to make almost 400 outs. KC’s team line of .229/.261/.314 and P-OPS+ 53 were the worst in the American League at any position. In essence, Kansas City’s shortstop’s hit about as well as Eric Milton (.224/.250/.327).
Posted by Lucas at 06:31 PM
December 15, 2006
Weekend Photo
Fredericksburg, Texas, 25 November 2006
Posted by Lucas at 08:39 PM
December 14, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Third Basemen
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
H. Blalock | 75% |
.777 |
98 |
.346 |
102 |
.431 |
96 |
67 |
14 |
80 |
8.4% |
13.6% |
M. DeRosa | 24% |
.767 |
95 |
.345 |
102 |
.422 |
94 |
21 |
5 |
22 |
9.8% |
19.0% |
3 others | 2% |
.899 |
132 |
.455 |
134 |
.444 |
99 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
TEAM | - |
.777 |
98 |
.348 |
102 |
.429 |
95 |
90 |
19 |
102 |
8.9% |
14.7% |
AL Average | - |
.790 |
- |
.340 |
- |
.451 |
- |
91 |
22 |
89 |
8.8% |
16.1% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
8 |
- |
4 |
- |
9 |
8 |
10 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
Texas third basemen performed slightly better than I expected, finishing in the middle of the AL pack. Most of Hank Blalock’s death spiral occurred while DH’ing, and at third he at least reached base at an acceptable rate. Much more on him to come. Mark DeRosa spent much of the last month at third and had cooled off by then.
AL Third Basemen
TEAM | OPS |
OPS+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
NY Yankees | .909 |
133 |
.389 |
116 |
.520 |
117 |
117 |
36 |
124 |
Kansas City | .859 |
116 |
.366 |
106 |
.493 |
110 |
96 |
21 |
96 |
Boston | .823 |
110 |
.341 |
101 |
.482 |
109 |
88 |
24 |
90 |
Toronto | .820 |
107 |
.349 |
103 |
.472 |
104 |
105 |
35 |
110 |
Seattle | .775 |
102 |
.322 |
96 |
.453 |
106 |
91 |
25 |
91 |
Detroit | .785 |
102 |
.318 |
94 |
.467 |
108 |
86 |
27 |
85 |
Chicago Sox | .796 |
99 |
.320 |
94 |
.476 |
105 |
83 |
30 |
97 |
Texas | .777 |
98 |
.348 |
102 |
.429 |
95 |
90 |
19 |
102 |
Tampa Bay | .768 |
97 |
.334 |
99 |
.434 |
98 |
71 |
20 |
78 |
Oakland | .742 |
93 |
.335 |
100 |
.408 |
93 |
84 |
24 |
81 |
LA Angels | .736 |
91 |
.330 |
98 |
.405 |
93 |
99 |
16 |
69 |
Baltimore | .735 |
90 |
.342 |
101 |
.393 |
89 |
99 |
16 |
89 |
Minnesota | .703 |
85 |
.329 |
99 |
.374 |
86 |
93 |
8 |
64 |
Cleveland | .688 |
80 |
.309 |
92 |
.379 |
88 |
73 |
12 |
75 |
Best-hitting AL third basemen: Alex Rodriguez had a poor season (by his lofty standards) and was still, easily, the best-hitting third baseman in the league. Incidentally, the Silver Slugger award went to Joe Crede, who trailed Rodriguez in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, home runs, runs batted in, and walks. Voters consist of an apparently unengaged collection of league managers and coaches.
Worst: Cleveland scored 80 more runs than in 2005 in spite of Aaron Boone (.248/.311/.369) and Andy Marte (.226/.287/.421).
Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM
December 13, 2006
Arbitration
Texas tendered contracts to arbitration-eligible pitchers RICK BAUER, JOAQUIN BENOIT and AKINORI OTSUKA and outfielder Brad Wilkerson. Texas did not offer a contract to pitcher MIKE WOOD.
I hadn’t given any thought to Wood being eligible for arbitration. Otherwise, no unexpected moves.
Posted by Lucas at 12:46 PM
December 12, 2006
Gagne Signed
Texas signed reliever ERIC GAGNE to a one-year contract for $6 million with (allegedly) $5 million in incentives.
The ultimate high-risk high-reward signing. Gagne has pitched in only sixteen games over the past two years, missing time with nerve-replacement surgery on his elbow and disc surgery on his back. So why drop no fewer than $6 million on a two-year hospital resident, particularly when the bullpen is already a team strength? Here’s why:
Hitters Against Gagne by Plate Appearance, 2002-2006:
Strikeout | 38.7% |
Out in play | 36.8% |
Single | 10.8% |
Walk | 6.2% |
Double | 2.9% |
Homer | 1.5% |
Hit by pitch | 1.1% |
Sac bunt | 1.1% |
Sac fly | 0.4% |
Reached on error | 0.3% |
Triple | 0.2% |
Opponents have batted .169/.229/.254 against him during the past five years. He had a WARP of over ten in 2003, an absolutely outrageous number for a relief pitcher. If he returns most of the way to his prior form, he could be worth five to seven wins. Gagne’s presence also makes a trade of Aki Otsuka (packaged for starting pitching, presumably) more likely.
Posted by Lucas at 06:14 PM
December 11, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Second Basemen
Second base has become the hitter’s graveyard. Among the nine AL positions (fielders plus DH), 2Bs had the fewest homers (by 34) and the worst walk rate. They ranked third in average but only seventh in OBP and dead last in slugging. John Hart must be aghast.
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
I. Kinsler | 72% |
.802 |
117 |
.347 |
104 |
.455 |
113 |
65 |
14 |
55 |
8.7% |
13.9% |
M. DeRosa | 16% |
1.018 |
175 |
.429 |
129 |
.589 |
146 |
20 |
3 |
15 |
7.8% |
14.6% |
D. Jimenez | 9% |
.692 |
89 |
.339 |
102 |
.353 |
88 |
6 |
1 |
8 |
13.6% |
10.2% |
3 others | 3% |
.417 |
16 |
.250 |
75 |
.167 |
41 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
TEAM | .816 |
121 |
.357 |
107 |
.459 |
114 |
93 |
18 |
78 |
9.0% |
14.3% |
|
AL Average | - |
.735 |
- |
.333 |
- |
.402 |
- |
83 |
11 |
71 |
6.7% |
12.9% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
- |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
Happily, the Rangers bucked that trend. Ian Kinsler had not only a fine rookie season but a fine season among all second basemen. Of the fourteen AL 2Bs with the most plate appearances, Kinsler ranked seventh in average, sixth in OBP, and third in slugging. Only Tad Iguchi and Robinson Cano had more homers. Forget about potential. Kinsler already stands with the league’s best hitters at his position.
Kinsler didn’t qualify for the batting title because a thumb injury cost him several weeks. During that time, Rogers Hornsby arose from the dead and assumed the form of Mark DeRosa. I understand that Hornsby’s estate will receive a portion of DeRosa’s $13 million contract.
AL Second Basemen
TEAM | OPS |
OPS+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
NY Yankees | .813 |
123 |
.343 |
104 |
.470 |
119 |
80 |
14 |
99 |
Texas | .816 |
121 |
.357 |
107 |
.459 |
114 |
93 |
18 |
78 |
Chicago Sox | .772 |
109 |
.351 |
105 |
.420 |
104 |
117 |
20 |
86 |
Cleveland | .745 |
108 |
.335 |
102 |
.410 |
106 |
80 |
12 |
72 |
Seattle | .734 |
106 |
.330 |
101 |
.404 |
106 |
85 |
10 |
82 |
LA Angels | .734 |
104 |
.331 |
100 |
.403 |
104 |
62 |
7 |
77 |
Baltimore | .731 |
102 |
.339 |
102 |
.391 |
99 |
93 |
11 |
64 |
Kansas City | .743 |
101 |
.340 |
100 |
.403 |
101 |
104 |
8 |
62 |
Minnesota | .710 |
101 |
.353 |
109 |
.357 |
92 |
89 |
3 |
52 |
Detroit | .698 |
94 |
.328 |
99 |
.370 |
96 |
80 |
6 |
73 |
Boston | .698 |
93 |
.338 |
102 |
.361 |
92 |
82 |
7 |
61 |
Oakland | .675 |
88 |
.307 |
93 |
.368 |
94 |
73 |
11 |
66 |
Tampa Bay | .668 |
83 |
.282 |
85 |
.386 |
98 |
62 |
20 |
83 |
Toronto | .627 |
71 |
.307 |
93 |
.320 |
79 |
65 |
5 |
41 |
Best-hitting AL second basemen: The Yankees (a great Robinson Cano dragged down by Miguel Cairo and Nick Green) nudged Texas in OPS+, but Texas had a better indexed on-base percentage. It’s my blog, so I’ll give the award to Texas.
Worst: The Blue Jays by an unhealthy margin. For probably no reason, Aaron Hill hit .339/.392/.463 at short and .268/.329/.348 at second. His assistants, mostly Russ Adams and Edgardo Alfonzo, were execrable.
Posted by Lucas at 11:24 PM
Lofton Signs
Texas signed outfielder KENNY LOFTON to a one-year contract for $6 million.
Texas badly needed a sure thing in the outfield. The team already had far-from-proven Nelson Cruz in right and arb-eligible, shoulder-impaired Brad Wilkerson (or Frank Catalanotto) in left. Adding Fast Freddy Guzman or Marlon Byrd in center was too much to bear.
So, Texas gets a leadoff hitter and center fielder. Lofton doesn’t walk quite as often as in his prime but still reaches base at a respectable clip, and he’s stolen 54 bases versus only eight caught during the past two years. Defensively, he’s only adequate, though he probably won’t represent too much of a decline from the departed Gary Matthews, who mostly built his reputation on highlight plays.
For these services, Lofton receives his biggest paycheck since 2001. Let the good times roll!
Posted by Lucas at 10:26 PM
December 08, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: First Basemen
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
M. Teixeira | 98% |
.885 |
113 |
.370 |
105 |
.515 |
108 |
99 |
33 |
110 |
12.5% |
18.1% |
4 others | 2% |
.143 |
(65) |
.071 |
20 |
.071 |
15 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0.0% |
28.6% |
TEAM | - |
.869 |
109 |
.364 |
103 |
.505 |
106 |
100 |
33 |
110 |
12.2% |
18.3% |
AL Average | - |
.829 |
- |
.353 |
- |
.476 |
- |
85 |
25 |
96 |
9.3% |
17.5% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
6 |
- |
5 |
- |
6 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
Through the season’s first 84 games, Mark Teixeira had eight homers and a .432 slugging percentage. Afterwards, 25 and .607. Despite his posting the worst rate stats since his rookie season, Texas 1Bs finished among the top half in OBP and slugging and fourth or better in runs, homers and RBI. Which is to say, a slightly down year from Teixeira is still pretty special. He turns 27 next April and may produce the titanic season I expected in 2006.
Teixeira drew twelve intentional walks last year, eighth-most in the AL. I cursorily attributed most of them to opponents wanting a desirable matchup against Hank Blalock, who followed Teixeira in the order in 71 games and batted .216/.281/.315 against lefthanders. In fact, only once did a team intentionally walk Teixeira to have a lefty face Blalock:
Date | Inning |
Score |
Outs |
Runners |
Next Batter |
Result |
Apr-09 |
b6 |
+2 |
2 |
-2- |
Nevin |
groundout |
Apr-11 |
t7 |
+3 |
2 |
--3 |
Nevin |
lineout |
Apr-20 |
t6 |
+1 |
1 |
-2- |
Nevin |
walk; Mench later doubled home a run |
May-08 |
b5 |
+2 |
0 |
-2- |
Nevin |
flyout; Teixeira later scored |
May-18 |
t7 |
+4 |
2 |
-2- |
Nevin |
groundout |
May-22 |
b7 |
+1 |
2 |
-2- |
Nevin |
groundout |
Jun-02 |
t7 |
tie |
2 |
-2- |
Blalock |
groundout against lefty reliever Neal Cotts |
Jul-03 |
b7 |
+2 |
1 |
-23 |
DeRosa |
single, 2 RBI |
Jul-21 |
t8 |
+3 |
0 |
-2- |
DeRosa |
lineout; Teixeira later scored |
Jul-30 |
b4 |
+5 |
1 |
-2- |
Laird |
groundout; Teixeira later scored |
Aug-08 |
t1 |
tie |
1 |
-23 |
Blalock |
grounded into double play against righty starter |
Sep-15 |
b6 |
tie |
2 |
-2- |
Lee |
lineout |
Texas batted .090/.167/.090 immediately following IBBs to Teixeira, though he did score three runs.
AL First Basemen
TEAM | OPS |
OPS+ |
OBP |
OBP+ |
SLG |
SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Minnesota | .970 |
139 |
.384 |
111 |
.586 |
128 |
101 |
38 |
140 |
Chicago Sox | .943 |
126 |
.387 |
109 |
.556 |
117 |
102 |
35 |
123 |
Cleveland | .910 |
125 |
.376 |
108 |
.534 |
117 |
99 |
31 |
118 |
Toronto | .905 |
117 |
.380 |
108 |
.524 |
109 |
93 |
26 |
95 |
Seattle | .847 |
110 |
.340 |
98 |
.507 |
112 |
78 |
36 |
110 |
Texas | .869 |
109 |
.364 |
103 |
.505 |
106 |
100 |
33 |
110 |
NY Yankees | .804 |
97 |
.348 |
100 |
.455 |
97 |
86 |
29 |
94 |
Baltimore | .785 |
94 |
.359 |
102 |
.426 |
92 |
79 |
18 |
84 |
Boston | .773 |
91 |
.359 |
102 |
.414 |
89 |
97 |
16 |
86 |
Kansas City | .774 |
87 |
.351 |
98 |
.423 |
90 |
82 |
13 |
96 |
Detroit | .754 |
86 |
.320 |
91 |
.434 |
95 |
76 |
23 |
89 |
Oakland | .737 |
83 |
.337 |
97 |
.400 |
87 |
77 |
23 |
79 |
Tampa Bay | .715 |
75 |
.315 |
90 |
.400 |
86 |
64 |
21 |
63 |
LA Angels | .664 |
65 |
.297 |
85 |
.367 |
80 |
59 |
11 |
61 |
Best-hitting 1Bs: Minnesota. AL MVP Justin Morneau led the way, and Mike Cuddyer had a small but significant assist (.455/.520/.1.045 in 25 appearances).
Worst: Los Angeles wisely moved Darin Erstad back to the outfield, but his replacements were even worse at the plate. Kendry Morales, Robb Quinlan, Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman combined to hit an abominable .255/.297/.367. LA’s first-sackers ranked last in the league in OBP, slugging, runs, homers and RBI. Good for them.
Posted by Lucas at 11:15 PM
Byrd Sighting
Texas signed outfielder MARLON BYRD to a one-year contract.
Is it a Major League contract? Is he on the 40? Don’t know.
After a splendiferous rookie campaign in 2003, Byrd has since hit .238/.306/.345 in 850 plate appearances. He’s hit well in AAA (.300/.372/.496) during the same span, but at age 29 seems an unlikely candidate for resurgence. Then again, he might be the boffo sequel to From Waiver Bait To Multi-Millionaire: The Gary Matthews Jr. Story by Rudy Jaramillo. Also, I might discover gold in the creek in my backyard.
Byrd is probably 2007’s version of Adrian Brown, but I wouldn’t describe his signing as low-risk high-reward. There’s a chance he could attain 200 plate appearances and suck, which would make him the 2007 version of Doug Glanville.
Posted by Lucas at 08:10 PM
December 07, 2006
Mighty Funny!
Kansas City has signed Gil Meche to a five-year contract for $55-60 million.
Statistically, Meche compares very (un)favorably to Adam Eaton. He has only two seasons of thirty-plus starts and has never exceeded 187 innings. Outside of Seattle pitcher-friendly environs, he’s pretty hopeless:
Category | Seattle |
Elsewhere |
ERA | 3.91 | 5.34 |
RA | 4.14 | 5.85 |
WHIP | 1.29 | 1.58 |
HR% | 2.9% | 3.2% |
BB% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
SO% | 18.4% | 14.3% |
SO/BB | 2.0 |
1.3 |

Posted by Lucas at 12:40 PM
December 04, 2006
Padilla Signs
Texas signed pitcher VICENTE PADILLA to a three-year contract for approximately $33 million with a fourth-year option for $12 million.
Three and $18 would have seemed appropriate only three months ago, but this ain’t your daddy’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Given the $19 million bestowed on reliever Dannys Baez and $24 million on perpetual mediocrity Adam Eaton, Padillla’s signing doesn’t shock the conscience.
It also refills a gigantic hole in a rotation that temporarily featured Robinson Tejeda as its #2 starter. In 2006, he rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons and career highs in strikeouts, strikeout rate, batters faced, and wins. Statistically, he doesn’t do anything exceptionally well but also does nothing badly. While he’s had issues both on and off the field, Ranger management presumably is satisfied with his demeanor and long-term outlook.
200 annual innings of what should be slightly above league-average performance is a godsend to this team. Congrats to Daniels and company for closing the deal.
Posted by Lucas at 11:45 PM
December 03, 2006
Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Catchers
The Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters returns with positional analyses.
In case you’re new to the game: You probably know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.
For Texas’s catchers, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other catchers. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .270/.330/.416. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .332 and a slugging percentage of .435 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages. Instead of OPS+, I use P-OPS+, the “P” standing for “position.”
Name | % of Team PA |
OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
BB% |
SO% |
R. Barajas | 57% |
.718 |
89 |
.302 |
91 |
.416 |
98 |
49 |
11 |
41 |
4.8% |
14.0% |
G. Laird | 41% |
.807 |
112 |
.332 |
100 |
.475 |
112 |
43 |
7 |
22 |
4.8% |
21.0% |
M. Ojeda | 2% |
.667 |
74 |
.250 |
75 |
.417 |
98 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
0.0% |
25.0% |
TEAM | - |
.753 |
98 |
.313 |
94 |
.440 |
104 |
92 |
18 |
67 |
4.7% |
17.1% |
AL Average | - |
.756 |
- |
.332 |
- |
.425 |
- |
74 |
18 |
80 |
7.4% |
15.9% |
Team Rank in AL | - |
- |
8 |
- |
11 |
- |
8 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
AL catchers had an OPS+ of 93 relative to the entire league, better than I expected.
I’m inclined to believe that if a catcher is coming off a .298 OBP (overall) and a team offers him two years and $5+ million, maybe, just maybe, he should accept it. But I’m just an observer. Barajas hit 47 homers as a Ranger, about 45 more than I expected when Texas signed him to a minor-league deal in 2004. I called him “Todd Greene Lite” at the time and he ended up being… Todd Greene.
Gerald Laird certainly outhit Barajas, but a late-season decline left him with a very ordinary OBP (even for a catcher), leaving the team among the worst in the AL in that respect. He’d shown an adequate walk rate in the minors, so he has some room to improve. In essence, his thumb injury in May 2004 cost him over two years of regular play in the Majors. Remember who collided with him at home plate? Ken Harvey.
TEAM | OPS |
P-OPS+ |
OBP |
P-OBP+ |
SLG |
P-SLG+ |
R |
HR |
RBI |
Minnesota | .867 |
138 |
.401 |
124 |
.466 |
114 |
94 |
12 |
99 |
Cleveland | .810 |
121 |
.365 |
112 |
.445 |
109 |
79 |
18 |
98 |
NY Yankees | .812 |
118 |
.354 |
108 |
.458 |
110 |
72 |
25 |
105 |
Baltimore | .802 |
114 |
.342 |
103 |
.459 |
111 |
75 |
26 |
100 |
Toronto | .789 |
107 |
.333 |
101 |
.455 |
106 |
71 |
26 |
82 |
Detroit | .766 |
106 |
.324 |
98 |
.441 |
108 |
85 |
17 |
82 |
Seattle | .730 |
99 |
.310 |
95 |
.420 |
104 |
68 |
20 |
80 |
Texas | .753 |
98 |
.313 |
94 |
.440 |
104 |
92 |
18 |
67 |
LA Angels | .725 |
96 |
.314 |
95 |
.411 |
101 |
72 |
22 |
69 |
Chicago Sox | .733 |
93 |
.320 |
96 |
.413 |
97 |
75 |
18 |
79 |
Oakland | .698 |
92 |
.356 |
109 |
.343 |
83 |
81 |
3 |
60 |
Boston | .668 |
79 |
.299 |
90 |
.369 |
89 |
66 |
18 |
85 |
Tampa Bay | .661 |
77 |
.299 |
91 |
.362 |
87 |
53 |
13 |
52 |
Kansas City | .639 |
69 |
.293 |
87 |
.345 |
82 |
49 |
11 |
63 |
Teams are sorted by P-OPS+.
Best-hitting catchers: Minnesota , featuring AL MVP Joe Mauer. Oh, right…
Worst-hitting catchers: Kansas City ’s John Buck and Paul Bako hit badly enough that Jason Larue represented an upgrade.
Posted by Lucas at 12:30 PM
December 01, 2006
Arbitration
Texas offered arbitration to pitcher VICENTE PADILLA and did not offer arbitration to catcher ROD BARAJAS or outfielder ERIC YOUNG.
Texas would have offered to Barajas had he signed with Toronto. Once he and the Jays departed on bad terms, the Rangers couldn’t risk that he’d hang around and earn a raise just to caddy for Gerald Laird.
Texas has four other arb-eligible players under their control – Rick Bauer, Joaquin Benoit, Aki Otsuka and Brad Wilkerson – and must decide on them by the 12th, if I’m reading the rules correctly.
Posted by Lucas at 11:02 PM
Weekend Photo
Abby the Black Lab, Fredericksburg, Texas, 24 Nov 2006
Posted by Lucas at 01:33 AM