The Ranger Rundown

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December 31, 2006

New Year's Eve Photo

A clock that belonged to my grandmother, who passed away last March.

May your 2007 be safe and fulfilling.

Posted by Lucas at 08:32 PM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Designated Hitters

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
P. Nevin	30%	.730	75	.309	88	.421	88	25	9	31	10.9%	19.3%
H. Blalock	20%	.532	29	.244	69	.288	60	9	2	9	6.3%	22.2%
M. Stairs	12%	.653	57	.273	78	.380	79	6	3	10	6.6%	25.0%
K. Mench	9%	.701	70	.321	91	.380	79	6	1	3	9.1%	7.3%
J. Botts	8%	.693	69	.321	91	.372	77	8	1	5	15.7%	33.3%
B. Wilkerson	7%	.527	27	.227	65	.300	62	3	1	1	9.1%	31.8%
M. Young	5%	1.396	232	.543	155	.853	177	7	2	10	2.9%	8.6%
C. Lee	5%	.981	135	.400	114	.581	121	6	1	5	8.8%	2.9%
5 others	4%	.839	102	.357	102	.481	100	1	1	2	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.719	73	.309	88	.410	85	71	21	76	8.7%	19.7%
AL Average	-	.832	-	.351	-	.481	-	83	28	93	11.1%	18.8%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	12	-	13	-	12	9	9	10	9	10

Texas DHes leapt from the worst OPS+ in the American League in 2005 to third-worst last season. Are you not suitably impressed? This next bit of information won’t help. Erase Michael Young’s softball line (.529/.543/.853 in seven games) and the remainder drops to – yikes -- .220/.290/.383. Remember, these are “designated hitters.”

As I’d mentioned in May, Nevin’s everyday presence in the middle of the order was a gloomily foregone conclusion despite mounting evidence that he wouldn’t perform. Texas relieved him of his duties just past the season’s one-quarter mark, after which time, for the most part, the situation worsened.

With nothing left to prove in the minors, Jason Botts received only a handful of starts over several weeks before management shuttled him back to Oklahoma. Wilkerson and Mench split the majority of DH starts for a month in a quasi-platoon while Mark DeRosa started every day (deservedly). Matt Stairs came, did nothing, and left. An injured Hank Blalock started mostly at DH during the final three weeks and reached his nadir as a batter. Only Young and Carlos Lee hit with authority.

AL Designated Hitters

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	1.016	150	.412	119	.604	131	114	45	137
Boston	1.003	143	.406	116	.597	127	109	50	131
Chicago Sox	.975	133	.408	116	.566	117	117	42	112
Oakland	.881	116	.368	106	.513	110	87	40	121
LA Angels	.849	108	.356	102	.492	106	84	28	96
NY Yankees	.842	106	.369	106	.473	100	104	30	114
Toronto	.811	94	.338	97	.473	97	65	16	69
Kansas City	.787	89	.348	97	.439	92	70	21	87
Detroit	.768	88	.309	88	.460	99	85	27	90
Baltimore	.754	85	.333	95	.421	90	63	16	71
Tampa Bay	.745	82	.323	92	.422	89	74	25	78
Texas	.719	73	.309	88	.410	85	71	21	76
Minnesota	.680	71	.316	92	.364	78	61	8	60
Seattle	.667	67	.300	87	.366	80	59	17	61

Best-hitting DHes: Cleveland has some guy named Hafner. I hear he's pretty good.

Worst: Seattle, a ghastly amalgam of Carl Everett, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and assorted others. Not to suggest Seattle’s acquisition of Jose Vidro was wise, but he will be an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 05:39 PM

December 29, 2006

Notes On The McCarthy-Danks Trade

(I’ve been out-of-pocket for a few days, so if I’m repeating someone else’s observations, I apologize…)

Age and Level
As mentioned by Adam yesterday, McCarthy isn’t two years older than Danks, only seventeen months. Because ages as applied to seasons are determined by a player’s age as of July 1, McCarthy is listed as two years older. Here is how McCarthy and Danks have advanced through minors in terms of age:

Age	McCarthy	Danks
18	Rookie	Rookie, Short-Season
19	Rookie, Short-Season	Low A, High A
20	Short-Season, Low A, High A	High A, AA
21	High A, AA	AA, AAA
22	AAA, Majors	---
23	Majors	---

Danks is only about a year ahead of McCarthy. McCarthy debuted in the Majors at the age of 22 years, 10 months. Danks will turn 22 next April.

Minor Performance
McCarthy clearly has pitched better than Danks in the minors. In addition an ERA nearly a full run lower than Danks, all the peripheral stats favor McCarthy.

Minors	RA	ERA	Opp. Avg.	HR%	BB%	SO%
McCarthy	3.92	3.39	.236	2.3%	4.9%	28.5%
Danks	4.96	4.33	.256	2.6%	8.6%	24.1%

But, stats can mislead. Many pitchers with good minor-league stats in aggregate have a shaky combination of outstanding stats in the low minors and mediocre performances in AA and AAA. To place more importance on higher levels, I created a weighted average, giving a lower level in the minors only two-thirds the weight of the one above it. So, AA counts two-thirds as much as AAA, high-A counts two-thirds as much as AA, etc. By the time we hit bottom, the Rookie League gets only about one-seventh the credit of AAA.

Why two-thirds? Well... it seems reasonable. I’m sure I (or someone) could look into the stats and devise a better weight for each level, but for the purpose of this simple exercise, two-thirds will suffice. Now, how do McCarthy and Danks match up:

Minors, Weighted	RA	ERA	Opp. Avg.	HR%	BB%	SO%
McCarthy	3.94	3.71	.230	2.7%	5.6%	28.2%
Danks	5.35	4.58	.262	2.9%	8.9%	23.3%

Again, McCarthy runs the table, and Danks’s weighted RA jumps to an uncomfortable 5.35 (21% of his runs in AAA were unearned.)

Parks
Chicago’s US Cellular Field plays nearly as hitter-friendly as Texas’s Ballpark. Cellular had a run factor of 1.05 versus the Ballpark’s 1.08 in 2006. Cellular depresses singles, doubles and triples but allows more homers and walks. Translating McCarthy’s statistics to Arlington increases his ERA only by about 0.05.

Intentional Walks
Ozzie Guillen ordered more intentional walks than any AL team and more than nine NL teams last season. Nine of McCarthy’s 33 walks were intentional. He got off easy; Neal Cotts issued seven free passes in just 30 innings. Losing the IBBs decreases McCarthy’s walk rate from 3.5 to 2.6 per nine innings.

Luck
McCarthy has permitted an uncommonly low hit rate on balls in play of .252 in the Majors. The White Sox as a whole allowed a .290 average on balls in play during 2005-2006. Perhaps McCarthy has a genuine ability to depress hits, but the probability of him continuing to allow an average 48 points below his teammates is very remote. Giving him a team-average hit rate in 2006 results in ten more hits allowed and a full run added to his ERA.

Earned Run Average
Pitchers who allow a high number of unearned runs usually aren’t as good as their ERAs would suggest. For example, in 2005 Kevin Millwood had an ERA of 2.86 but allowed eleven unearned runs (15% of his total), indicating his season was a bit of a fluke.

McCarthy has allowed zero unearned runs in 152 innings. He has a career ERA+ of 104, but his RA+ is 112. In 2006, he had a Component ERA (a Bill James creation that estimates what the pitcher’s ERA “should be” based on peripheral stats) of just 4.10 compared to his actual ERA of 4.68. (Note that the Component ERA does not compensate for his abnormally low hit rate on balls in play. Again, giving him a typical hit rate increases his ERA and RA by a run.)

Posted by Lucas at 10:25 AM

December 28, 2006

Quiroz signed

Texas signed catcher GUILLERMO QUIROZ to a Major League contract and added him to the 40-man roster.

Once a well-regarded prospect, Quiroz has toiled for eight years with only 98 MLB plate appearances to his credit. He peaked statistically in 2003, batting .282/.372/.518 for AA New Haven (Toronto system), and has bounced between AAA and the Majors ever since. He did hit .304/.359/.428 for AAA Tacoma last year, and as a 25-year-old, may yet mature into a decent MLB backup. Anything that might improve upon Miguel Ojeda would be most welcome. With his signing, Texas has filled its 40-man roster.

The Rangers also signed pitcher Mike Wood to a minor deal after waiving him a few weeks ago. They also signed former Twin reliever Willie Eyre, who should spend most or all of 2007 regaling the Redhawk faithful with his presence.

Posted by Lucas at 09:49 PM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Right Fielders

Here’s your disaster.

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. DeRosa	37%	.783	90	.347	99	.436	91	30	4	29	7.3%	19.6%
K. Mench	35%	.824	99	.345	99	.479	100	26	10	36	6.6%	14.0%
N. Cruz	20%	.626	51	.261	75	.365	76	14	5	21	5.3%	22.6%
9 others	7%	.485	17	.208	60	.277	58	3	0	9	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.743	80	.319	91	.424	89	73	19	95	6.3%	19.4%
AL Average	-	.828	-	.350	-	.478	-	92	24	94	8.2%	16.7%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	14	-	13	-	14	14	10	7	14	11

Texas’s variety pack of right fielders posted a line of .271/.319/.424. That may only sound “bad,” not “really really bad,” but right field is for offense. Among the eight fielding positions plus DH, AL right fielders ranked first in batting average, third in OBP and second in slugging percentage.

The Rangers did not keep up. They ranked next-to-last in the league in on-base percentage, last in slugging, last in runs scored, and last in walk rate. Mark DeRosa batted .295/.347/.436, mostly later in the season after he’d cooled off. Now, that line compares quite favorably to DeRosa’s previous output from 1998 to 2005, but as an American League right fielder in 2006, not so much. Kevin Mench basically held his ground, and Nelson Cruz had a tough rookie season.

AL Right Fielders

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Chicago Sox	.958	129	.376	107	.582	122	111	44	129
LA Angels	.885	118	.363	104	.522	114	91	33	116
Toronto	.876	110	.354	102	.522	108	104	28	111
Baltimore	.851	108	.354	102	.497	106	89	26	86
NY Yankees	.814	100	.357	103	.456	97	93	22	101
Detroit	.808	99	.344	99	.463	101	90	26	103
Minnesota	.796	99	.348	102	.447	97	109	20	104
Oakland	.793	98	.358	104	.435	94	87	18	93
Seattle	.778	97	.371	108	.407	90	99	10	53
Cleveland	.784	96	.339	98	.445	97	91	20	89
Tampa Bay	.795	93	.310	89	.485	103	83	33	76
Boston	.777	92	.352	101	.425	91	84	17	77
Kansas City	.777	87	.332	93	.445	94	88	16	81
Texas	.743	80	.319	91	.424	89	73	19	95

Best-hitting right fielders: Chicago’s Jermaine Dye lapped the field, including LA’s Vlad.

Worst: See above.

Posted by Lucas at 01:37 PM

December 25, 2006

Merry Christmas

Posted by Lucas at 02:04 AM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Center Fielders

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
G. Matthews	89%	.875	125	.375	112	.500	113	102	19	75	8.6%	13.8%
6 others	11%	.272	(29)	.134	40	.138	31	4	0	7	2.4%	40.2%
TEAM	-	.807	107	.349	104	.457	103	106	19	82	8.0%	16.7%
AL Average	-	.778	-	.335	-	.443	-	95	19	74	7.5%	16.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	5	-	4	-	6	3	8	4	6	7

I’d guess Gary Matthews has no more than a 10% chance of justifying his contract. That’s not to diminish his outstanding final season in Texas. Center field has plagued the Rangers since the team logo was a cowboy hat perched on a baseball (see upper left). For one season, Matthews eradicated that plague with solid defense and an astonishing bat. New center fielder Kenny Lofton may outhit Matthews next year, but he won’t surpass Matthews’s 2006.

Laynce Nix, Adrian Brown, Jerry Hairston, Freddy Guzman, and Brad Wilkerson (1 at-bat) combined to go 9-for-80 (.113) with two walks. Good times.

AL Center Fielders

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Cleveland	0.920	142	0.378	115	0.541	127	136	29	78
Toronto	0.915	132	0.364	109	0.551	123	106	34	113
Minnesota	0.803	112	0.334	102	0.468	109	102	32	99
NY Yankees	0.806	110	0.345	104	0.461	106	121	26	84
Texas	0.807	107	0.349	104	0.457	103	106	19	82
Detroit	0.777	104	0.330	99	0.447	105	101	22	76
Tampa Bay	0.758	96	0.314	94	0.443	102	94	21	79
LA Angels	0.733	95	0.345	104	0.388	91	87	10	71
Oakland	0.736	95	0.333	101	0.403	94	83	11	76
Kansas City	0.741	92	0.351	103	0.390	89	83	8	62
Boston	0.713	87	0.326	98	0.388	89	87	13	66
Baltimore	0.714	85	0.297	89	0.418	96	83	21	67
Seattle	0.656	75	0.294	89	0.362	86	80	11	42
Chicago Sox	0.672	73	0.302	90	0.370	83	67	12	47

Best-hitting center fielders: Cleveland, in the form of Grady Sizemore.

Worst: The Chicago White Sox, a combination of Brian Anderson (a terrific fielder who couldn’t hit) and Rob Mackowiak (overmatched in center but adequate at the plate). Seattle gets dishonorable mention with its three-headed monster of Jeremy Reed, Willie Bloomquist and Adam Jones (until Ichiro! took over).

Posted by Lucas at 02:01 AM

December 23, 2006

Gigantic Trade

Texas has traded pitchers JOHN DANKS, NICK MASSET and JACOB RASNER to the Chicago White Sox for pitcher BRANDON MCCARTHY and outfielder DAVID PAISANO.

And here I am, doing Christmas with the in-laws (XM radio! Two bottles of wine!), blithely assuming MLB would be taking the weekend off, caught totally off-guard.

Ultra-quick first impression: I'm not sure I agree, but I understand. And Jon Daniels has a huge pair.

Posted by Lucas at 11:30 PM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Left Fielders

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
B. Wilkerson	45%	.777	92	.325	93	.452	99	52	14	41	10.9%	32.0%
C. Lee	33%	.882	117	.364	104	.517	113	36	8	30	7.7%	11.3%
K. Mench	9%	.798	97	.333	96	.464	101	4	1	11	5.1%	10.2%
J. Hairston	8%	.686	74	.360	103	.326	71	8	0	3	14.0%	16.0%
6 others	5%	.813	99	.313	90	.500	109	3	1	5	6.3%	15.6%
TEAM	-	.809	100	.341	98	.469	102	103	24	90	9.3%	21.2%
AL Average	-	.807	-	.349	-	.459	-	94	20	85	8.9%	15.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	6	-	7	-	6	3	5	6	6	13

On the whole, Texas left fielders didn’t pull the team underwater as far as you might think. Wilkerson, Mench, and Hairston (who received fifty[!] plate appearances in left – at least he got on base…) did, on their own, but then Carlos Lee arrived and messed things up by batting well. For the real batting disaster, one must look over to right field.

AL Left Fielders

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Boston	.977	145	.423	122	.553	123	101	36	105
Seattle	.871	122	.354	103	.516	118	105	33	124
Oakland	.849	114	.355	103	.494	111	109	31	86
Toronto	.850	112	.395	114	.455	98	96	15	71
Tampa Bay	.817	104	.344	99	.473	105	97	20	83
Texas	.809	100	.341	98	.469	102	103	24	90
NY Yankees	.778	97	.360	105	.419	93	102	13	72
LA Angels	.777	97	.335	97	.442	100	83	19	91
Detroit	.782	96	.303	87	.479	109	94	34	98
Kansas City	.791	95	.342	97	.449	99	102	16	94
Minnesota	.746	91	.329	97	.417	94	74	17	78
Chicago Sox	.720	80	.341	98	.379	82	98	4	57
Cleveland	.704	80	.311	91	.393	89	98	13	76
Baltimore	.682	73	.322	93	.359	80	60	7	66

Best-hitting left fielders: Boston. Manny. Seattle ranks a surprising second thanks to a terrific effort from Raul Ibanez.

Worst: Baltimore. Jeff Conine and Brandon Fahey make a bad corner-outfield tandem? Well knock me down with a feather! (Fahey, by the way, was a Texas Longhorn on the ’02 championship team.)

Posted by Lucas at 09:33 AM

December 18, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Shortstops

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. Young	95%	.785	109	.346	104	.438	105	86	12	93	6.7%	13.2%
4 others	5%	.897	140	.412	124	.485	116	10	0	5	2.9%	8.8%
TEAM	-	.790	110	.349	105	.441	105	96	12	98	6.5%	13.0%
AL Average	-	.751	-	.333	-	.418	-	85	13	74	6.9%	14.5%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	4	-	5	-	4	5	8	2	9	5

After four consecutive years of increasingly stunning improvement culminating in last year’s astounding line of .331/.385/.513, Michael Young finally regressed, hitting .314/.356/.459 overall and “only” .303/.346/.438 as a shortstop. As such, he declined from brilliant to very good, lagging only behind the Big Three of Jeter, Tejada, and Carlos Guillen.

Young doesn’t require a backup, but those who did squeeze in a few innings at shortstop hit very well (dollops of Mark DeRosa, Joaquin Arias, and Jerry Hairston).

AL Shortstops

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Detroit	.893	143	.393	118	.500	124	105	19	81
NY Yankees	.893	142	.412	125	.481	117	126	15	100
Baltimore	.866	133	.382	115	.484	118	101	22	91
Texas	.790	110	.349	105	.441	105	96	12	98
LA Angels	.742	102	.338	102	.403	100	102	9	79
Minnesota	.713	97	.342	105	.372	92	60	3	50
Seattle	.708	95	.310	94	.398	100	72	8	48
Oakland	.710	94	.333	101	.376	93	82	13	65
Cleveland	.699	92	.315	96	.384	96	88	14	78
Toronto	.716	90	.321	97	.395	93	81	12	67
Chicago Sox	.712	87	.271	81	.442	105	66	24	92
Tampa Bay	.690	86	.305	92	.386	94	80	16	53
Boston	.674	82	.306	92	.368	90	70	10	63
Kansas City	.575	53	.261	77	.314	76	58	9	68

Best-hitting shortstops: Detroit (mostly the aforementioned Guillen, who hit .320/.400/.519) bested New York (Derek Jeter) in OPS, but the Yankees’ advantage in OBP makes him best by a slight margin.

Worst: Kansas City’s Angel Berroa just barely qualified for the batting title with 503 plate appearances and still managed to make almost 400 outs. KC’s team line of .229/.261/.314 and P-OPS+ 53 were the worst in the American League at any position. In essence, Kansas City’s shortstop’s hit about as well as Eric Milton (.224/.250/.327).

Posted by Lucas at 06:31 PM

December 15, 2006

Weekend Photo

Fredericksburg, Texas, 25 November 2006

Posted by Lucas at 08:39 PM

December 14, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Third Basemen

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
H. Blalock	75%	.777	98	.346	102	.431	96	67	14	80	8.4%	13.6%
M. DeRosa	24%	.767	95	.345	102	.422	94	21	5	22	9.8%	19.0%
3 others	2%	.899	132	.455	134	.444	99	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM	-	.777	98	.348	102	.429	95	90	19	102	8.9%	14.7%
AL Average	-	.790	-	.340	-	.451	-	91	22	89	8.8%	16.1%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	4	-	9	8	10	3	4	6

Texas third basemen performed slightly better than I expected, finishing in the middle of the AL pack. Most of Hank Blalock’s death spiral occurred while DH’ing, and at third he at least reached base at an acceptable rate. Much more on him to come. Mark DeRosa spent much of the last month at third and had cooled off by then.

AL Third Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
NY Yankees	.909	133	.389	116	.520	117	117	36	124
Kansas City	.859	116	.366	106	.493	110	96	21	96
Boston	.823	110	.341	101	.482	109	88	24	90
Toronto	.820	107	.349	103	.472	104	105	35	110
Seattle	.775	102	.322	96	.453	106	91	25	91
Detroit	.785	102	.318	94	.467	108	86	27	85
Chicago Sox	.796	99	.320	94	.476	105	83	30	97
Texas	.777	98	.348	102	.429	95	90	19	102
Tampa Bay	.768	97	.334	99	.434	98	71	20	78
Oakland	.742	93	.335	100	.408	93	84	24	81
LA Angels	.736	91	.330	98	.405	93	99	16	69
Baltimore	.735	90	.342	101	.393	89	99	16	89
Minnesota	.703	85	.329	99	.374	86	93	8	64
Cleveland	.688	80	.309	92	.379	88	73	12	75

Best-hitting AL third basemen: Alex Rodriguez had a poor season (by his lofty standards) and was still, easily, the best-hitting third baseman in the league. Incidentally, the Silver Slugger award went to Joe Crede, who trailed Rodriguez in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, home runs, runs batted in, and walks. Voters consist of an apparently unengaged collection of league managers and coaches.

Worst: Cleveland scored 80 more runs than in 2005 in spite of Aaron Boone (.248/.311/.369) and Andy Marte (.226/.287/.421).

Posted by Lucas at 12:10 PM

December 13, 2006

Arbitration

Texas tendered contracts to arbitration-eligible pitchers RICK BAUER, JOAQUIN BENOIT and AKINORI OTSUKA and outfielder Brad Wilkerson. Texas did not offer a contract to pitcher MIKE WOOD.

I hadn’t given any thought to Wood being eligible for arbitration. Otherwise, no unexpected moves.

Posted by Lucas at 12:46 PM

December 12, 2006

Gagne Signed

Texas signed reliever ERIC GAGNE to a one-year contract for $6 million with (allegedly) $5 million in incentives.

The ultimate high-risk high-reward signing. Gagne has pitched in only sixteen games over the past two years, missing time with nerve-replacement surgery on his elbow and disc surgery on his back. So why drop no fewer than $6 million on a two-year hospital resident, particularly when the bullpen is already a team strength? Here’s why:

Hitters Against Gagne by Plate Appearance, 2002-2006:

Strikeout	38.7%
Out in play	36.8%
Single	10.8%
Walk	6.2%
Double	2.9%
Homer	1.5%
Hit by pitch	1.1%
Sac bunt	1.1%
Sac fly	0.4%
Reached on error	0.3%
Triple	0.2%

Opponents have batted .169/.229/.254 against him during the past five years. He had a WARP of over ten in 2003, an absolutely outrageous number for a relief pitcher. If he returns most of the way to his prior form, he could be worth five to seven wins. Gagne’s presence also makes a trade of Aki Otsuka (packaged for starting pitching, presumably) more likely.

Posted by Lucas at 06:14 PM

December 11, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Second Basemen

Second base has become the hitter’s graveyard. Among the nine AL positions (fielders plus DH), 2Bs had the fewest homers (by 34) and the worst walk rate. They ranked third in average but only seventh in OBP and dead last in slugging. John Hart must be aghast.

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
I. Kinsler	72%	.802	117	.347	104	.455	113	65	14	55	8.7%	13.9%
M. DeRosa	16%	1.018	175	.429	129	.589	146	20	3	15	7.8%	14.6%
D. Jimenez	9%	.692	89	.339	102	.353	88	6	1	8	13.6%	10.2%
3 others	3%	.417	16	.250	75	.167	41	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%
TEAM		.816	121	.357	107	.459	114	93	18	78	9.0%	14.3%
AL Average	-	.735	-	.333	-	.402	-	83	11	71	6.7%	12.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	2	-	2	-	2	3	3	5	2	9

Happily, the Rangers bucked that trend. Ian Kinsler had not only a fine rookie season but a fine season among all second basemen. Of the fourteen AL 2Bs with the most plate appearances, Kinsler ranked seventh in average, sixth in OBP, and third in slugging. Only Tad Iguchi and Robinson Cano had more homers. Forget about potential. Kinsler already stands with the league’s best hitters at his position.

Kinsler didn’t qualify for the batting title because a thumb injury cost him several weeks. During that time, Rogers Hornsby arose from the dead and assumed the form of Mark DeRosa. I understand that Hornsby’s estate will receive a portion of DeRosa’s $13 million contract.

AL Second Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
NY Yankees	.813	123	.343	104	.470	119	80	14	99
Texas	.816	121	.357	107	.459	114	93	18	78
Chicago Sox	.772	109	.351	105	.420	104	117	20	86
Cleveland	.745	108	.335	102	.410	106	80	12	72
Seattle	.734	106	.330	101	.404	106	85	10	82
LA Angels	.734	104	.331	100	.403	104	62	7	77
Baltimore	.731	102	.339	102	.391	99	93	11	64
Kansas City	.743	101	.340	100	.403	101	104	8	62
Minnesota	.710	101	.353	109	.357	92	89	3	52
Detroit	.698	94	.328	99	.370	96	80	6	73
Boston	.698	93	.338	102	.361	92	82	7	61
Oakland	.675	88	.307	93	.368	94	73	11	66
Tampa Bay	.668	83	.282	85	.386	98	62	20	83
Toronto	.627	71	.307	93	.320	79	65	5	41

Best-hitting AL second basemen: The Yankees (a great Robinson Cano dragged down by Miguel Cairo and Nick Green) nudged Texas in OPS+, but Texas had a better indexed on-base percentage. It’s my blog, so I’ll give the award to Texas.

Worst: The Blue Jays by an unhealthy margin. For probably no reason, Aaron Hill hit .339/.392/.463 at short and .268/.329/.348 at second. His assistants, mostly Russ Adams and Edgardo Alfonzo, were execrable.

Posted by Lucas at 11:24 PM

Lofton Signs

Texas signed outfielder KENNY LOFTON to a one-year contract for $6 million.

Texas badly needed a sure thing in the outfield. The team already had far-from-proven Nelson Cruz in right and arb-eligible, shoulder-impaired Brad Wilkerson (or Frank Catalanotto) in left. Adding Fast Freddy Guzman or Marlon Byrd in center was too much to bear.

So, Texas gets a leadoff hitter and center fielder. Lofton doesn’t walk quite as often as in his prime but still reaches base at a respectable clip, and he’s stolen 54 bases versus only eight caught during the past two years. Defensively, he’s only adequate, though he probably won’t represent too much of a decline from the departed Gary Matthews, who mostly built his reputation on highlight plays.

For these services, Lofton receives his biggest paycheck since 2001. Let the good times roll!

Posted by Lucas at 10:26 PM

December 08, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: First Basemen

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
M. Teixeira	98%	.885	113	.370	105	.515	108	99	33	110	12.5%	18.1%
4 others	2%	.143	(65)	.071	20	.071	15	1	0	0	0.0%	28.6%
TEAM	-	.869	109	.364	103	.505	106	100	33	110	12.2%	18.3%
AL Average	-	.829	-	.353	-	.476	-	85	25	96	9.3%	17.5%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	6	-	5	-	6	3	4	4	1	10

Through the season’s first 84 games, Mark Teixeira had eight homers and a .432 slugging percentage. Afterwards, 25 and .607. Despite his posting the worst rate stats since his rookie season, Texas 1Bs finished among the top half in OBP and slugging and fourth or better in runs, homers and RBI. Which is to say, a slightly down year from Teixeira is still pretty special. He turns 27 next April and may produce the titanic season I expected in 2006.

Teixeira drew twelve intentional walks last year, eighth-most in the AL. I cursorily attributed most of them to opponents wanting a desirable matchup against Hank Blalock, who followed Teixeira in the order in 71 games and batted .216/.281/.315 against lefthanders. In fact, only once did a team intentionally walk Teixeira to have a lefty face Blalock:

Date	Inning	Score	Outs	Runners	Next Batter	Result
Apr-09	b6	+2	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
Apr-11	t7	+3	2	--3	Nevin	lineout
Apr-20	t6	+1	1	-2-	Nevin	walk; Mench later doubled home a run
May-08	b5	+2	0	-2-	Nevin	flyout; Teixeira later scored
May-18	t7	+4	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
May-22	b7	+1	2	-2-	Nevin	groundout
Jun-02	t7	tie	2	-2-	Blalock	groundout against lefty reliever Neal Cotts
Jul-03	b7	+2	1	-23	DeRosa	single, 2 RBI
Jul-21	t8	+3	0	-2-	DeRosa	lineout; Teixeira later scored
Jul-30	b4	+5	1	-2-	Laird	groundout; Teixeira later scored
Aug-08	t1	tie	1	-23	Blalock	grounded into double play against righty starter
Sep-15	b6	tie	2	-2-	Lee	lineout

Texas batted .090/.167/.090 immediately following IBBs to Teixeira, though he did score three runs.

AL First Basemen

TEAM	OPS	OPS+	OBP	OBP+	SLG	SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Minnesota	.970	139	.384	111	.586	128	101	38	140
Chicago Sox	.943	126	.387	109	.556	117	102	35	123
Cleveland	.910	125	.376	108	.534	117	99	31	118
Toronto	.905	117	.380	108	.524	109	93	26	95
Seattle	.847	110	.340	98	.507	112	78	36	110
Texas	.869	109	.364	103	.505	106	100	33	110
NY Yankees	.804	97	.348	100	.455	97	86	29	94
Baltimore	.785	94	.359	102	.426	92	79	18	84
Boston	.773	91	.359	102	.414	89	97	16	86
Kansas City	.774	87	.351	98	.423	90	82	13	96
Detroit	.754	86	.320	91	.434	95	76	23	89
Oakland	.737	83	.337	97	.400	87	77	23	79
Tampa Bay	.715	75	.315	90	.400	86	64	21	63
LA Angels	.664	65	.297	85	.367	80	59	11	61

Best-hitting 1Bs: Minnesota. AL MVP Justin Morneau led the way, and Mike Cuddyer had a small but significant assist (.455/.520/.1.045 in 25 appearances).

Worst: Los Angeles wisely moved Darin Erstad back to the outfield, but his replacements were even worse at the plate. Kendry Morales, Robb Quinlan, Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman combined to hit an abominable .255/.297/.367. LA’s first-sackers ranked last in the league in OBP, slugging, runs, homers and RBI. Good for them.

Posted by Lucas at 11:15 PM

Byrd Sighting

Texas signed outfielder MARLON BYRD to a one-year contract.

Is it a Major League contract? Is he on the 40? Don’t know.

After a splendiferous rookie campaign in 2003, Byrd has since hit .238/.306/.345 in 850 plate appearances. He’s hit well in AAA (.300/.372/.496) during the same span, but at age 29 seems an unlikely candidate for resurgence. Then again, he might be the boffo sequel to From Waiver Bait To Multi-Millionaire: The Gary Matthews Jr. Story by Rudy Jaramillo. Also, I might discover gold in the creek in my backyard.

Byrd is probably 2007’s version of Adrian Brown, but I wouldn’t describe his signing as low-risk high-reward. There’s a chance he could attain 200 plate appearances and suck, which would make him the 2007 version of Doug Glanville.

Posted by Lucas at 08:10 PM

December 07, 2006

Mighty Funny!

Kansas City has signed Gil Meche to a five-year contract for $55-60 million.

Statistically, Meche compares very (un)favorably to Adam Eaton. He has only two seasons of thirty-plus starts and has never exceeded 187 innings. Outside of Seattle pitcher-friendly environs, he’s pretty hopeless:

Category	Seattle	Elsewhere
ERA	3.91	5.34
RA	4.14	5.85
WHIP	1.29	1.58
HR%	2.9%	3.2%
BB%	9.2%	11.2%
SO%	18.4%	14.3%
SO/BB	2.0	1.3

Posted by Lucas at 12:40 PM

December 04, 2006

Padilla Signs

Texas signed pitcher VICENTE PADILLA to a three-year contract for approximately $33 million with a fourth-year option for $12 million.

Three and $18 would have seemed appropriate only three months ago, but this ain’t your daddy’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Given the $19 million bestowed on reliever Dannys Baez and $24 million on perpetual mediocrity Adam Eaton, Padillla’s signing doesn’t shock the conscience.

It also refills a gigantic hole in a rotation that temporarily featured Robinson Tejeda as its #2 starter. In 2006, he rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons and career highs in strikeouts, strikeout rate, batters faced, and wins. Statistically, he doesn’t do anything exceptionally well but also does nothing badly. While he’s had issues both on and off the field, Ranger management presumably is satisfied with his demeanor and long-term outlook.

200 annual innings of what should be slightly above league-average performance is a godsend to this team. Congrats to Daniels and company for closing the deal.

Posted by Lucas at 11:45 PM

December 03, 2006

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: Catchers

The Second Annual Review Of Ranger Hitters returns with positional analyses.

In case you’re new to the game: You probably know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, which are calculated just like OPS+. OBP+ tends to vary less than SLG+.

For Texas’s catchers, the meaningful comparison is not how they performed relative to the league as a whole but rather the AL’s other catchers. The AL batted .275/.337/.439 in 2006, while #1 hitters posted a line of .270/.330/.416. Also, The Ballpark favored hitters with a factor of 1.005 for on-base percentage and 1.020 for slugging. Thus, players hitting first for Texas need an on-base percentage of .332 and a slugging percentage of .435 to be of average quality. Regarding the “AL average” row in the table below, the rate stats are park-adjusted while the counting stats are simple averages. Instead of OPS+, I use P-OPS+, the “P” standing for “position.”

Name	% of Team PA	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB%	SO%
R. Barajas	57%	.718	89	.302	91	.416	98	49	11	41	4.8%	14.0%
G. Laird	41%	.807	112	.332	100	.475	112	43	7	22	4.8%	21.0%
M. Ojeda	2%	.667	74	.250	75	.417	98	0	0	4	0.0%	25.0%
TEAM	-	.753	98	.313	94	.440	104	92	18	67	4.7%	17.1%
AL Average	-	.756	-	.332	-	.425	-	74	18	80	7.4%	15.9%
Team Rank in AL	-	-	8	-	11	-	8	2	6	11	12	10

AL catchers had an OPS+ of 93 relative to the entire league, better than I expected.

I’m inclined to believe that if a catcher is coming off a .298 OBP (overall) and a team offers him two years and $5+ million, maybe, just maybe, he should accept it. But I’m just an observer. Barajas hit 47 homers as a Ranger, about 45 more than I expected when Texas signed him to a minor-league deal in 2004. I called him “Todd Greene Lite” at the time and he ended up being… Todd Greene.

Gerald Laird certainly outhit Barajas, but a late-season decline left him with a very ordinary OBP (even for a catcher), leaving the team among the worst in the AL in that respect. He’d shown an adequate walk rate in the minors, so he has some room to improve. In essence, his thumb injury in May 2004 cost him over two years of regular play in the Majors. Remember who collided with him at home plate? Ken Harvey.

TEAM	OPS	P-OPS+	OBP	P-OBP+	SLG	P-SLG+	R	HR	RBI
Minnesota	.867	138	.401	124	.466	114	94	12	99
Cleveland	.810	121	.365	112	.445	109	79	18	98
NY Yankees	.812	118	.354	108	.458	110	72	25	105
Baltimore	.802	114	.342	103	.459	111	75	26	100
Toronto	.789	107	.333	101	.455	106	71	26	82
Detroit	.766	106	.324	98	.441	108	85	17	82
Seattle	.730	99	.310	95	.420	104	68	20	80
Texas	.753	98	.313	94	.440	104	92	18	67
LA Angels	.725	96	.314	95	.411	101	72	22	69
Chicago Sox	.733	93	.320	96	.413	97	75	18	79
Oakland	.698	92	.356	109	.343	83	81	3	60
Boston	.668	79	.299	90	.369	89	66	18	85
Tampa Bay	.661	77	.299	91	.362	87	53	13	52
Kansas City	.639	69	.293	87	.345	82	49	11	63

Teams are sorted by P-OPS+.

Best-hitting catchers: Minnesota , featuring AL MVP Joe Mauer. Oh, right…

Worst-hitting catchers: Kansas City ’s John Buck and Paul Bako hit badly enough that Jason Larue represented an upgrade.

Posted by Lucas at 12:30 PM

December 01, 2006

Arbitration

Texas offered arbitration to pitcher VICENTE PADILLA and did not offer arbitration to catcher ROD BARAJAS or outfielder ERIC YOUNG.

Texas would have offered to Barajas had he signed with Toronto. Once he and the Jays departed on bad terms, the Rangers couldn’t risk that he’d hang around and earn a raise just to caddy for Gerald Laird.

Texas has four other arb-eligible players under their control – Rick Bauer, Joaquin Benoit, Aki Otsuka and Brad Wilkerson – and must decide on them by the 12th, if I’m reading the rules correctly.

Posted by Lucas at 11:02 PM

Weekend Photo

Abby the Black Lab, Fredericksburg, Texas, 24 Nov 2006

Posted by Lucas at 01:33 AM