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February 28, 2011
Weekend-End Photo
Slug formerly hiding beneath potted plant brought indoors by cruel human, 1 Feb 2011
Posted by Lucas at 12:53 AM
February 27, 2011
The Annual Bewilderment
Come the regular season, Washington intends for Beltre to hit fourth with Cruz fifth. The reason: Washington simply doesn't believe Cruz, entering what should be his third full season in the majors, is ready for the job."Wherever Beltre hits, whether it's fourth or fifth, I think he's still going to get the same pitches, a lot of offspeed stuff away and then fastballs in," Washington said. "He's a veteran and he can handle that. I just don't think [Cruz] is ready for it. One more year, I think he might be." [emphasis added]
Washington doesn't explain in detail, but I believe he's implying (in part) that Cruz isn't ready to handle the increased proportion of breaking pitches that cleanup hitters allegedly face. Recall this statement from 2008:
"The No. 4 guys gets off-speed stuff," Washington said on Monday. "Look back and Milton [Bradley] handled more off-speed stuff than fastballs. Hamilton handled more fastballs than breaking balls because they didn't want to put Hamilton on base and let Milton hurt them."
Ah... we've been down this road before. As I wrote back in '08, Bradley actually saw more fastballs than all but one Ranger, while Hamilton saw the second lowest percentage of fastballs on the team. Which is to say, Washington was completely, utterly backwards.
As for the latest assertion, Cruz already sees more offspeed pitches than most batters. In 2010, Cruz received more offspeed pitches than the league median, more than Adrian Beltre, and many more than last year's cleanup hitter Vlad Guerrero. Pitchers just don't like bringing the heat to him:
| Player | Offspeed % | Rank |
| Cruz | 45.4% | 19th |
| Beltre | 43.3% | 34th |
| AL Median | 41.6% | -- |
| Guerrero | 40.2% | 62nd |
Does Cruz struggle against breaking pitches? He certainly didn't in 2010 (data compiled from Fangraphs):
| Player | Batting Runs per 100 Offspeed Pitches | Rank | Batting Runs per 100 Non-Knuckled Offspeed Pitches | Rank | Batting Runs per 100 Fastballs | Rank |
| Cruz | 1.24 | 6th | 0.74 | 16th | 1.85 | 7th |
| Beltre | 0.97 | 13th | 0.97 | 11th | 1.05 | 21st |
| AL Median | (0.12) | -- | (0.13) | -- | 0.27 | -- |
I created a "non-knuckleball breaking pitch" category because: 1) batters so rarely face them, and 2) Cruz destroyed Tim Wakefield (5-5, 2 doubles, homer, walk) such that a large percentage of his breaking-ball value came against Wakefield alone. Beltre exceeds Cruz in this category, but not by much. In sum, Cruz hits well regardless of what's coming at him.
Batting order doesn't matter much, except at the extremes of optimization and silliness, so sitting Cruz behind Beltre means very little in terms of runs scored. Still, I wish Washington would stick to an emotion-based explanation that people can abide ("I'm more comfortable with a veteran batting cleanup. The end.") and omit the technical reasoning that contradicts the facts.
Posted by Lucas at 01:22 PM
February 20, 2011
Weekend Photo
Tommy Hunter and Ron Washington, Rangers Caravan Luncheon, Round Rock, Texas, 27 Jan 2011
Posted by Lucas at 01:56 PM
February 17, 2011
Brief Thoughts on Young and 3,000 and the Hall
Joey Matschulat has a fine article about Michael Young's Hall of Fame chances, wherein he mentions something I wrote a year ago about Young's likelihood of achieving 3,000 hits. A "statistical sledgehammer," he called it. Flattering. To make a long story short, Bill James's "Favorite Toy" gave Young a modest 18% probability of reaching 3,000, and I suggested that even 18% was optimistic.
Young now needs 1,152 hits to reach 3,000. He's entering his Age 34 season. Riffing off Matschulat, here's the list of players who achvieved that many hits from Age 34 through the end of their careers and how many seasons were needed:
Seasons |
Hitters |
<=5 |
none |
6 |
Sam Rice, Pete Rose |
7 |
Ty Cobb, Paul Molitor |
8 |
Craig Biggio, Nap Lajoie, Edgar Martinez, Honus Wagner |
9 |
Hank Aaron, Luke Appling, Stan Musial, Dave Winfield, Carl Yaztrzemski |
10 |
Omar Vizquel |
>=11 |
Carlton Fisk |
Only 15 players, many of whom were among the best to ever swing a bat, populate the list. Tony Gwynn had "only" 1,102 hits after turning 34. George Brett had 1,059. Wade Boggs had 1,045. And so on. Whatever you think of Young, the players in the preceding table are his betters, not his peers. He's bucking some terribly long odds at this point. On the other hand, he already leads the Rangers in base hits. If he hangs around, he'll lead in games played, plate appearances, total bases, doubles, and times on base. His name is all over the franchise's record books.
Texas took the extraordinary step of introducing the still-active Pudge Rodriguez before its first-ever World Series game last fall. Pudge received a hero's welcome. Despite leaving under uncomfortable circumstances, he remains as beloved as any player in Texas history. What reaction might Young receive in 2020, if he were invited back?
Posted by Lucas at 01:02 AM
February 06, 2011
Utilitarianism
So Michael Young’s relationship with Texas appears to be irreparably sundered. This isn’t surprising. Despite public statements to the contrary from management, the acquisitions of Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli clearly reduced him to a supporting role, albeit strong support. He might qualify for the batting title (502 plate appearances nowadays), but his standard 700 PAs seems too lofty a goal. Moreover, his ostensible role as DH plus backup at all four infield positions has always sounded a bit dubious, if interesting. There’s no antecedent for it, not unless you get really creative with the criteria. Some findings via the wonderful Play Index at Baseball-Reference.com:
- No Major League player has ever qualified for the batting title while playing at least five games at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and DH. Not at age 34, not ever.
- Among players in the Age 34-36 bracket (concurrent with the remaining three years on Young’s contract), a handful have qualified for the batting title while playing at least five games at four of the five positions:
5+ games at 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS (but not DH): Tony Graffanino in 2006 (2.1 bWAR) and Mark Loretta in 2007 (0.3).
5+ games at 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH (no SS): Bobby Grich in 1985 (2.9 bWAR)
5+ games at 1B, 2B, SS, and DH (no 3B): none.
5+ games at 1B, 3B, SS, and DH (no 2B): none.
5+ games at 2B, 3B, SS, and DH (no 1B): Jim Morrison in 1987 (1.0 bWAR)
Lowering the standard from five games to just one game at each position creates a five-position qualifying group of just Graffanino, Loretta, and Morrison.
Players who are good enough to play positions tend to play positions. Players who aren’t tend to DH or support less arduous positions like 1B and the corner OF slots. Weak defenders are poor candidates for “super utility” players, particularly if some of the utility is to be realized in the middle infield. If the opposite were true, Esteban German would have 8-10 years of MLB service time. Young is better than German, of course; he has power and still catches what he reaches. Much as I like the idea of breaking new ground in baseball, a notoriously conservative sport, it’s an awkward fit.
Young’s departure would put more pressure on Mitch Moreland to fulfill his potential (as an adequate, not great, 1B) and once again leaves the Rangers limited against left-handed pitching. Should he stay, Young’s best bet for achieving 650-700 plate appearances would be as a replacement for a disappointing performance from Moreland or an injured Kinsler or Beltre. I can’t imagine Texas entrusting shortstop to Young in the long term if Andrus were injured.
The New Pornographers, "Use It," Twin Cinema, 2005
Posted by Lucas at 05:07 PM
February 05, 2011
Weekend Photo
Snowpocalyse 2011
Posted by Lucas at 06:04 PM
February 02, 2011
What's A Decent First Baseman Worth?
During 2010, the scales tipped to Texas in the Mark Teixeira trade. In terms of Fangraphs wins above replacement (fWAR), the players acquired by Texas have amassed a career total of 8.8 fWAR, higher than Teixeira from the trade date through his final arbitration year of 2008 plus Ron Mahay's last two months before free agency, and at a dramatically lower cost:
| Player (since trade to Texas) | fWAR | $ (millions) | $ Millions per fWAR |
| Saltalamacchia | 0.3 | 1.000 | 3.33 |
| Feliz | 2.8 | 0.641 | 0.23 |
| Andrus | 4.6 | 0.836 | 0.18 |
| Harrison | 1.1 | 0.984 | 0.89 |
| Jones | - | 0.048 | -- |
| TOTAL | 8.8 | 3.510 | 0.40 |
| Player (from trade through free agency) | fWAR | $ (millions) | $ Millions per fWAR |
| Teixeira | 7.4 | 15.500 | 2.09 |
| Mahay | 0.3 | 0.417 | 1.39 |
| TOTAL | 7.7 | 15.917 | 2.07 |
That is not to say the trade was an unvarnished success. Texas has struggled mightily to replace Teixeira. Here's an annual review of who has played first since his departure, and how many wins Texas has forfeited by having who they've had versus a league-average 1B. (In the tables below, "Rest of League" equals the total production of American League 1Bs minus Texas's production. For each year, I've assumed Texas's and the average 1B received an equal number of plate appearances.)
2007 -- fWAR Deficit: 0.8 wins (post-Teixeira only, 57 games)
| Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRAA | wRC | wRC+ |
| Brad Wilkerson | 123 | .262 | .369 | .447 | .357 | 2 | 18 | 114 |
| J. Saltalamacchia | 91 | .213 | .231 | .337 | .246 | (7) | 5 | 40 |
| Frank Catalanotto | 57 | .220 | .328 | .300 | .300 | (2) | 6 | 76 |
| All Rangers | 271 | .237 | .315 | .378 | .308 | (6) | 28 | 81 |
| Rest of League | 271 | .268 | .349 | .445 | .347 | 2 | 37 | 106 |
Who occupied first for the 46-59 Rangers in the waning days of 2007 didn't matter much. The remnants of Brad Wilkerson started the first post-Teixeira game at first base. He actually hit pretty well, sharply contrasting most of his dire two years in Arlington. Wilkerson shared the position with Frank Catalanotto, another ostensibly high-OBP 1B/COF/DH aging at an alarming rate, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Once upon a time, Saltalamacchia was believed to have a future as a respectable (if not elite) first baseman if catching didn't yield success. He shared home plate with Gerald Laird and played first on other days. Subsequent to 2007, he only caught.
The Rangers lacked a clear solution at first entering the offseason. Texas understandably wanted to groom Saltalamacchia as a catcher. Jason Botts, a hitter in the Wilkerson mode, had shown patience and occasional power but poor contact and defensive skills. Chris Davis ranked 65th among Baseball America's top 100 prospects after the season, but he'd barely reached AA.
2008 -- fWAR Deficit: 0.9 wins
| Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRAA | wRC | wRC+ |
| Chris Davis | 203 | .284 | .325 | .553 | .373 | 5 | 30 | 121 |
| Chris Shelton | 115 | .221 | .339 | .337 | .303 | (4) | 11 | 74 |
| Hank Blalock | 148 | .299 | .345 | .569 | .388 | 6 | 24 | 131 |
| Frank Catalanotto | 115 | .324 | .389 | .441 | .362 | 2 | 16 | 113 |
| Ben Broussard | 89 | .159 | .225 | .268 | .225 | (9) | 2 | 22 |
| Jason Botts | 24 | .174 | .208 | .391 | .256 | (2) | 1 | 43 |
| Max Ramirez | 11 | .100 | .182 | .100 | .145 | (2) | (0) | -31 |
| Ramon Vazquez | 5 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | .678 | 1 | 2 | 324 |
| All Rangers | 710 | .263 | .327 | .459 | .339 | (2) | 86 | 98 |
| Rest of League | 710 | .266 | .347 | .446 | .347 | 7 | 95 | 108 |
"I don't want him coming to the park every day wondering if he's going to play against a left-hander. He's going to play against them until he proves he can't."
Ron Washington said that about Ben Broussard, of all people, acquired for minor-league utility man Tug Hulett during the winter. Broussard had managed a paltry .227/.290/.399 line against lefties (and hadn't hit them in the high minors, either), but Washington had faith. Broussard and company lurched to a 9-18 start that very nearly cost Washington his job. Texas would employ seven others at first after Broussard's mid-May release, the most of any post-Teixeira season.
Curiously, that was the season Texas's collective best imitated an average first baseman, batting .263/.327/.459 with 71 extra-base hits. Catalanotto hit for average, Chris Shelton drew a few walks, and Hank Blalock enjoyed a brief career renaissance. Most importantly, Chris Davis arrived.
Davis blasted through AA Frisco (.333/.376/.618) and AAA Oklahoma City (.333/.402/.685) before receiving the call on June 26th, and he homered in ten of his first 24 MLB starts. Davis switched to third when Blalock returned from injury, but his future was at first. Seasons of 40 homers were foretold. Barely a year after the Teixeira trade, Texas had its permanent replacement.
2009 -- fWAR Deficit: 4.5 wins!!!
| Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRAA | wRC | wRC+ |
| Chris Davis | 376 | .215 | .266 | .421 | .297 | (15) | 32 | 68 |
| Hank Blalock | 274 | .236 | .270 | .399 | .289 | (13) | 21 | 63 |
| Andruw Jones | 26 | .200 | .346 | .300 | .303 | (1) | 2 | 72 |
| Esteban German | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | .890 | 0 | 1 | 460 |
| All Rangers | 677 | .225 | .272 | .409 | .295 | (28) | 56 | 67 |
| Rest of League | 677 | .275 | .357 | .487 | .366 | 17 | 101 | 120 |
Or not. From Opening Day, Davis's shortcomings -- impatience, a gaping hole in his swing --immediately overwhelmed his positive attributes. I remember a Sunday afternoon D/FW sports-talk host suggesting Texas replace Davis with Justin Smoak on April 12th, a mere six days into the season. Smoak had just made his AA debut. The idea was short-sighted, preposterous, rabble-rousing... but Davis never improved. The front office displayed admirable patience, more so than I would have shown (and I'm the patient type), but finally demoted him to AAA in early July and shifted Blalock from DH. Blalock was equally brutal.
How brutal? During the wild-card era (1994-present), 449 players have attained 400 plate appearances while playing at least half of their PAs at first base. Of those 449, Hank Blalock has the worst on-base percentage, .277. Chris Davis's .284 is third worst. Again: two of the three worst OBPs by a first basemen during the last 17 years belong to Rangers and occurred in the same season. Also, Texas 1Bs drew a meager 40 walks against 217 strikeouts.
Davis returned after six weeks and was productive (.308/.338/.496), if still very unwilling to take a pitch. Still, he showed enough to maintain his loose grasp on the starting 1B job heading into 2010.
2010 -- fWAR Deficit: 2.7 wins
| Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRAA | wRC | wRC+ |
| Justin Smoak | 274 | .209 | .318 | .355 | .305 | (6) | 26 | 81 |
| Chris Davis | 132 | .188 | .273 | .265 | .248 | (9) | 6 | 42 |
| Mitch Moreland | 153 | .256 | .359 | .450 | .357 | 3 | 21 | 117 |
| Jorge Cantu | 82 | .237 | .284 | .355 | .280 | (3) | 6 | 64 |
| Ryan Garko | 17 | .000 | .067 | .000 | .041 | (4) | (2) | -101 |
| Joaquin Arias | 15 | .231 | .286 | .231 | .225 | (1) | 0 | 26 |
| All Rangers | 673 | .214 | .308 | .346 | .294 | (20) | 58 | 74 |
| Rest of League | 673 | .262 | .348 | .450 | .349 | 7 | 85 | 109 |
The Rangers ceased being patient after 2009, gearing winter and early-season transactions toward making the postseason and subsequent moves toward a deep October run. In April, Texas flipped the roles of Frank Francisco and Neftali Feliz, replaced both of its catchers, and again demoted Davis, who no longer evinced the power that slightly mitigated his dreadful on-base percentage. Although Justin Smoak wasn't ready for the Majors when his made his late-April debut, Texas's immediate priority was finding enough production to get by. Smoak did at least reach base more often than the typical shortstop or catcher, but he looked overmatched at times and didn't inspire confidence in terms of October at-bats. Now, he's a Mariner.
As for those appearing briefly, Ryan Garko was a cipher (and I loved that waiver claim at the time), Jorge Cantu played himself out of a platoon/pinch-hit role, and... don't make me write anything more about Joaquin Arias.
Aside from Smoak's walks, what prevented another 2009 was Mitchell Moreland, a reasonably well regarded but largely unheralded 1B/RF drafted in 2007's 17th round. The rookie's studious approach yielded results akin to a slightly better-than-average 1B.
2007-2010 -- TOTAL fWAR DEFICIT: 9.0
| Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRAA | wRC | wRC+ |
| All Rangers | 2331 | .235 | .304 | .403 | .311 | (57) | 228 | 80 |
| Rest of League | 2331 | .268 | .350 | .459 | .354 | 33 | 318 | 111 |
The difference in value between an average American League 1B and what Texas has trotted out is nine wins in the last three-plus years. Perhaps Davis and company have provided better-than-average defense during that time, but even the best 1B gloves aren't worth more than about one win per season.
Not coincidentally, Texas 1Bs have rarely batted in the heart of the order. From mid-2004 until he was traded, Mark Teixeira batted third or fourth. In 543 games since then, only seven times has Ron Washington penned a 1B's name into one of those slots.
2011
Despite the displacement of Michael Young and acquisition of Mike Napoli, management has proclaimed Moreland Texas's primary first baseman. Young and Napoli will spot Moreland against lefties. Nobody is predicting a league homer title for Moreland as with Davis prior to 2009, but he is expected to be competent. The good news is that, should he falter, neither Young nor Napoli is helpless against them.
Regardless of how the at-bats are apportioned, the Moreland/Young/Napoli hydra should almost certainly resemble an average first basemen, something the Rangers haven't enjoyed in several years. Losing Cliff Lee definitely stung, but simply having an acceptable bat at first base is worth about half of a full season of Lee. Better to have both, of course, but the point is that Texas has the wherewithal to compensate at least partially for his departure.
Uncle Tupelo, "Looking For A Way Out," from Still Feel Gone, 1991
Posted by Lucas at 01:58 AM