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October 26, 2010
Playoff Roster Tree
Includes anyone on a roster for either of previous playoff series.
RULE FOUR DRAFTJulio Borbon (2007, Round 1 supplemental, 35th overall, compensation for loss of…)
---- Carlos Lee (acquired with Nelson Cruz)
-------- Francisco Cordero (acquired with F. Catalanotto, G. Kapler, B. Haselman, J. Thomson, A. Webb)
------------ Juan Gonzalez (amateur free agent, 1996)
------------ Danny Patterson (drafted 1987, 47th round)
------------ Gregg Zaun (acquired from Florida in conditional deal, 1998)
Derek Holland (2006, 25th round)
Tommy Hunter (2007, Round 1a supplemental, 54th overall, compensation for loss of…)
---- Mark DeRosa (minor-league free agent, 2005)
Ian Kinsler (2003, 17th round)
Michael Kirkman (2005, 5th round)
Mitch Moreland (2007, 17th round)
C.J. Wilson (2001, 5th round)
TRADE ACQUISITIONS
Elvis Andrus (acquired with N. Feliz, J. Saltamacchia, M. Harrison, B. Jones)
---- Mark Teixeira (drafted 2001, 1st round, 5th overall)
---- Ron Mahay (minor-league free agent, 2002)
Jorge Cantu
---- Evan Reed (drafted 2007, 3rd round)
Nelson Cruz (acquired with Carlos Lee)
---- Francisco Cordero (acquired with F. Catalanotto, G. Kapler, B. Haselman, J. Thomson, A. Webb)
-------- Juan Gonzalez (amateur free agent, 1996)
-------- Danny Patterson (drafted 1987, 47th round)
-------- Gregg Zaun (acquired from Florida in conditional deal, 1998)
---- Kevin Mench (drafted 1999, 4th round)
---- Laynce Nix (drafted 2000, 4th round)
---- Julian Cordero (amateur free agent, 2004ish)
Neftali Feliz (acquired with E. Andrus, J. Saltamacchia, M. Harrison, B. Jones)
---- Mark Teixeira (drafted 2001, 1st round, 5th overall)
---- Ron Mahay (minor-league free agent, 2002)
Jeff Francoeur
---- Joaquin Arias (acquired with Alfonso Soriano)
-------- Alex Rodriguez (Major League free agent, 2001)
Josh Hamilton
---- Edinson Volquez (amateur free agent, 2001)
---- Danny Ray Herrera (drafted 2006, 45th round)
Cliff Lee (acquired with Mark Lowe)
---- Justin Smoak (drafted 2008, 1st round)
---- Blake Beavan (drafted 2007, 1st round)
---- Josh Lueke (drafted 2007, 16th round)
---- Matt Lawson (drafted 2007, 14th round)
Bengie Molina
---- Michael Main (drafted 2007, 1st round compensation for loss of….)
-------- Gary Matthews Jr. (minor-league free agent, 2004)
---- Chris Ray (acquired with Ben Snyder later)
-------- Kevin Millwood (Major League free agent, 2006)
David Murphy (acquired with K. Gabbard and E. Beltre)
---- Eric Gagne (Major League free agent, 2007)
Matt Treanor
---- Ray Olmedo (minor-league free agent, 2009)
Michael Young (acquired with Darwin Cubillan)
---- Esteban Loaiza
-------- Todd Van Poppel (minor league free agent, 2007)
-------- Warren Morris (drafted 1996, 5th round)
ACQUIRED FOR CASH
Andres Blanco
Clay Rapada
MAJOR LEAGUE FREE AGENTS
Vladimir Guerrero
Colby Lewis
Darren Oliver
MINOR LEAGUE FREE AGENTS
Esteban German
WAIVER CLAIMS
Dustin Nippert (2008 from ARI)
Darren O'Day (2009 from NYM)
RULE FIVE DRAFT
Alexi Ogando (2005 from OAK)
Posted by Lucas at 11:55 PM
October 23, 2010
The Pitch That Struck Out A-Rod
Posted by Lucas at 01:53 AM
World Series
That was definitely worth driving up to Arlington for the third time in three weeks. And there will be a fourth!
Posted by Lucas at 01:03 AM
October 19, 2010
ALCS Odds Update
| Result | Probability |
|
| TEX sweeps | -- |
total: 64% |
| TEX wins 4-1 | 13% |
|
| TEX wins 4-2 | 26% |
|
| TEX wins 4-3 | 25% |
|
| NYY wins 4-3 | 19% |
total: |
| NYYwins 4-2 | 18% |
|
| NYY wins 4-1 | -- |
|
| NYY sweeps | -- |
|
A couple of bookies have the Rangers at -175 and Yankees at +155, very close to my calculations.
Posted by Lucas at 04:28 PM
October 16, 2010
Ron and Josh
ALCS Game 1: Ron Washington and Josh Hamilton exhibit proper form on their man-hug. Note the distinct separation of genital areas.
Posted by Lucas at 01:26 PM
ALCS Probabilities (Partially Belated)
Log5 Predictor)
TEX home win % = .614
NYY road win % = .542
TEX 57% favorite to win at home
NYY home win % = .646
TEX road win % = .500
NYY 65% to win at home
These were the probabilities going into the series.
| Result | Probability | |
| TEX sweeps | 4% | total: 45% |
| TEX wins 4-1 | 8% | |
| TEX wins 4-2 | 16% | |
| TEX wins 4-3 | 18% | |
| NYY wins 4-3 | 14% | total: |
| NYYwins 4-2 | 15% | |
| NYY wins 4-1 | 19% | |
| NYY sweeps | 8% | |
The betting outlets I visited had Texas at 43% and New York at 61% (the cumulative probability exceeds 100% because of the juice), making Texas a better pick, if not a terrific one.
Now that New York has taken Game 1:
| Result | Probability | |
| TEX sweeps | 0% | total: 27% |
| TEX wins 4-1 | 3% | |
| TEX wins 4-2 | 9% | |
| TEX wins 4-3 | 16% | |
| NYY wins 4-3 | 12% | total: |
| NYYwins 4-2 | 15% | |
| NYY wins 4-1 | 18% | |
| NYY sweeps | 18% | |
Had the Rangers won on Friday, they'd be 59% to win the series. The first game makes a huge difference.
Posted by Lucas at 01:22 PM
October 12, 2010
Updated Series Odds
Never tell me the odds.
Posted by Lucas at 12:07 AM
October 11, 2010
Tommy Hunter
Tommy Hunter walks to the dugout before his first postseason appearance.
Posted by Lucas at 11:59 PM
October 09, 2010
Colby Lewis
Posted by Lucas at 11:54 PM
October 08, 2010
Updated Series Odds
| Result | Based on H/R Records |
Based on BP30 wins |
||
| TAM sweeps | 0% |
total: 12% |
0% |
total: 12% |
| TAM wins 3-1 | 0% |
0% |
||
| TAM wins 3-2 | 12% |
12% |
||
| TEX wins 3-2 | 8% |
total: 88% |
8% |
total: 88% |
| TEX wins 3-1 | 25% |
25% |
||
| TEX sweeps | 55% |
55% |
||
Despite the last two days, the Rangers don't have a 130% chance of winning the series. Tampa Bay shrewdly employed its worst starter in Game 2, giving the Rays a leg up on Sunday's potential matchup. Maddon's always thinking ahead.
Posted by Lucas at 09:18 AM
October 07, 2010
Updated Series Odds
| Result | Based on H/R Records |
Based on BP30 wins |
||
| TAM sweeps | 0% |
total: 36% |
0% |
total: 33% |
| TAM wins 3-1 | 12% |
11% |
||
| TAM wins 3-2 | 24% |
22% |
||
| TEX wins 3-2 | 15% |
total: 64% |
15% |
total: 67% |
| TEX wins 3-1 | 28% |
29% |
||
| TEX sweeps | 21% |
23% |
||
Also, for you betting types, the current series odds (Texas -205, Tampa Bay +175) don't indicate an opportunity based on the "actual" odds as defined in the table.
Posted by Lucas at 11:04 AM
October 06, 2010
Number-Oriented Thoughts on Texas versus Tampa Bay
Log5 PredictorBill James invented a formula for calculating the probability of victory based on two team’s winning percentages called “log5.” I’ve calculated the probability of each potential outcome two use data sets: 1) Texas and Tampa Bay’s actual won-loss record (both home and away), and 2) Baseball Prospectus’s 3rd-order wins (91.3 for Tampa Bay, 88.4 for Texas, about one-half the difference in their actual wins) plus a 4% advantage to the home team. Obviously, Tampa Bay will be favored since they own the better record and home-field advantage.
Method 1)
TAM home win % = .605
TEX road win % = .481
TAM 62% favorite to win at home
TEX home win % = .630
TAM road win % = .580
TEX 55% to win at home
Method 2)
TAM 60% to win at home, TEX 56% to win at home.
Results
| Result | Based on H/R Records | Based on BP30 wins | ||
| TAM sweeps | 17% | total: 60% | 16% | total: 57% |
| TAM wins 3-1 | 19% | 18% | ||
| TAM wins 3-2 | 24% | 23% | ||
| TEX wins 3-2 | 14% | total: 40% | 15% | total: 43% |
| TEX wins 3-1 | 18% | 19% | ||
| TEX sweeps | 8% | 9% | ||
The most likely scenario involves the Rays winning in a full five games. The Rangers are actually more likely to win in four games than five. Ignoring juice, some oddsmakers I’ve visited have the Rays at -135 to win the series, equivalent to 57%. Based on log5, the odds are close to “correct.”
The Deeper In
Offense
After adjusting for parks, Texas and Tampa Bay had pretty evenly matched offenses in 2010. The Rays play take and rake, finishing 13th of 14 teams in batting average and worst in strikeouts but also 1st in walks and in the middle of the pack in isolated power. The Rangers, on the other hand, led the league with a .276 batting average but displayed ordinary patience and power.
But Texas was hampered offensively by injuries to Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton plus the subpar performances of Justin Smoak (not forgiving his rookie status for this exercise), Chris Davis, and others. Tampa Bay had its own problems (Burrell, Blalock), but with a reasonably healthy lineup and adequate bat in the form of Mitch Moreland at 1st, do the Rangers trump the Rays offensively?
I recreated the batting lines of Texas and Tampa Bay based on projected playing time in a five-game series (for example, Jeff Francoeur starting Games 1 and 5 versus lefty David Price and including only his lefty slash stats). You can quibble with my estimates (how dare you) and the names on the bench (which haven’t been finalized as of early Wednesday morning), but one-game adjustments for a small handful of players wouldn’t affect the calculations much.
| Pos | Player | BA | OBP | SLG | AVG+ | OBP+ | SLG+ | Games |
| C | Bengie Molina | .240 | .279 | .320 | 83 | 83 | 77 | 2.50 |
| C | Matt Treanor | .211 | .287 | .308 | 86 | 86 | 74 | 1.50 |
| 1B | Mitch Moreland | .255 | .364 | .469 | 109 | 109 | 112 | 3.00 |
| 1B | Jorge Cantu | .235 | .279 | .327 | 83 | 83 | 78 | 2.00 |
| 2B | Ian Kinsler | .286 | .382 | .412 | 114 | 114 | 99 | 5.00 |
| 3B | Mike Young | .284 | .330 | .444 | 99 | 99 | 106 | 5.00 |
| SS | Elvis Andrus | .265 | .342 | .301 | 100 | 102 | 72 | 5.00 |
| IF | Andres Blanco | .277 | .330 | .349 | 99 | 99 | 84 | 0.25 |
| OF | Josh Hamilton | .359 | .411 | .633 | 123 | 123 | 152 | 5.00 |
| OF | Nelson Cruz | .318 | .374 | .576 | 112 | 112 | 138 | 5.00 |
| OF | David Murphy | .291 | .358 | .449 | 107 | 107 | 108 | 2.00 |
| OF | Jeff Francoeur | .300 | .363 | .442 | 108 | 108 | 106 | 2.00 |
| OF | Julio Borbon | .276 | .309 | .340 | 92 | 92 | 82 | 1.75 |
| DH | Vlad Guerrero | .300 | .345 | .496 | 103 | 103 | 119 | 5.00 |
| - | Team Total | - | - | - | 104 | 105 | 107 | - |
| Pos | Player | BA | OBP | SLG | AVG+ | OBP+ | SLG+ | Games |
| C | John Jaso | .263 | .372 | .378 | 103 | 115 | 95 | 3.00 |
| C | Kelly Shoppach | .196 | .308 | .342 | 77 | 95 | 86 | 1.50 |
| 1B | Carlos Pena | .196 | .325 | .407 | 77 | 101 | 102 | 5.00 |
| 2B/UT | Sean Rodriguez | .292 | .375 | .442 | 114 | 116 | 111 | 2.00 |
| 3B | Evan Longoria | .294 | .372 | .507 | 115 | 115 | 127 | 5.00 |
| SS | Jason Bartlett | .254 | .324 | .350 | 99 | 100 | 88 | 5.00 |
| SS | Reid Brignac | .256 | .307 | .385 | 100 | 95 | 96 | 0.25 |
| IF | Willy Aybar | .230 | .309 | .344 | 90 | 96 | 86 | 0.25 |
| OF | Carl Crawford | .307 | .356 | .495 | 120 | 110 | 124 | 5.00 |
| OF | Matthew Joyce | .241 | .360 | .477 | 94 | 111 | 119 | 5.00 |
| OF | B.J. Upton | .237 | .322 | .424 | 93 | 100 | 106 | 5.00 |
| UT | Ben Zobrist | .238 | .346 | .353 | 93 | 107 | 88 | 3.00 |
| DH/4C | Dan Johnson | .198 | .343 | .414 | 77 | 106 | 104 | 4.50 |
| DH/OF | Brad Hawpe | .245 | .338 | .419 | 89 | 97 | 97 | 0.25 |
| - | Team Total | - | - | - | 96 | 107 | 106 | - |
Separating the wheat from the chaff results in much prettier OBP and slugging for both teams, as you’d expect. Texas leapfrogs the Rays in power but remains behind in on-base percentage. Combined with their modest superiority on the basepaths, the Rays own perhaps a very slight advantage on the Rangers offensively.
Pitching
I performed similar calculations for the rotations and bullpen but used Fangraphs’ WAR instead of a less trustworthy (especially for relievers) stat like ERA. I assigned innings to each starting pitcher roughly equivalent to average innings per start during 2010 rounded down to the nearest 1/3 inning and then subtracted another 1/3. Doing so creates a conservative estimate and assumes both managers will employ quick hooks to play the matchup game. I assumed a four-man rotation and assigned innings to the bullpen so that each team’s total was 45 innings (five games). Again, if you see something distasteful, note that small changes in innings and/or the personnel at the back of the bullpen make little difference.
| Name | IP | WAR | WAR/IP | Playoff IP | Playoff WAR |
| Cliff Lee | 108 | 3.3 | 0.031 | 14.3 | 0.44 |
| C.J. Wilson | 204 | 4.4 | 0.022 | 6.0 | 0.13 |
| Colby Lewis | 201 | 4.4 | 0.022 | 6.0 | 0.13 |
| Tommy Hunter | 128 | 0.7 | 0.005 | 5.0 | 0.03 |
| TOTAL | - | - | - | - | 0.73 |
| Name | IP | WAR | WAR/IP | Playoff IP | Playoff WAR |
| David Price | 209 | 4.3 | 0.021 | 13.0 | 0.27 |
| James Shields | 203 | 2.2 | 0.011 | 6.0 | 0.07 |
| Matt Garza | 205 | 1.8 | 0.009 | 6.0 | 0.05 |
| Wade Davis | 168 | 0.8 | 0.005 | 5.3 | 0.03 |
| TOTAL | - | - | - | - | 0.41 |
Here lies the striking difference between the teams. Not a single matchup favors the Rays. David Price bests Cliff Lee in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, but Lee triumphs in a variety of deeper stats (FIP, xFIP, strand rate, etc.). Again, for emphasis: to a man, Texas’s rotation is equal to or better than Tampa Bay’s.
| Name | IP | WAR | WAR/IP | Playoff IP | Playoff WAR |
| Neftali Feliz | 69 | 1.8 | 0.026 | 3.0 | 0.08 |
| Alexi Ogando | 41 | 0.8 | 0.020 | 2.0 | 0.04 |
| Darren O'Day | 62 | 0.9 | 0.015 | 2.0 | 0.03 |
| Darren Oliver | 62 | 1.5 | 0.024 | 2.0 | 0.05 |
| Dustin Nippert | 57 | (0.3) | (0.005) | 2.0 | (0.01) |
| Derek Holland | 57 | 0.8 | 0.014 | 1.3 | 0.02 |
| Michael Kirkman | 16 | 0.3 | 0.019 | 1.3 | 0.02 |
| TOTAL | - | - | - | - | 0.23 |
| Name | IP | WAR | WAR/IP | Playoff IP | Playoff WAR |
| Rafael Soriano | 62 | 1.7 | 0.027 | 3.0 | 0.08 |
| Grant Balfour | 55 | 1.2 | 0.022 | 2.3 | 0.05 |
| Jeff Niemann | 174 | 1.2 | 0.007 | 2.3 | 0.02 |
| Joaquin Benoit | 60 | 1.6 | 0.027 | 2.3 | 0.06 |
| Chad Qualls | 59 | 0.3 | 0.005 | 1.7 | 0.01 |
| Randy Choate | 44 | 0.5 | 0.011 | 1.7 | 0.02 |
| Dan Wheeler | 48 | 0.1 | 0.002 | 1.3 | 0.00 |
| TOTAL | - | - | - | - | 0.24 |
Both teams have strong bullpens with excellent closers and nobody truly awful on the back end. The worst of the lot, Dustin Nippert, carries the burden of saving his mates in the pen if a starter flames out.
Defense
The Rays and Rangers are excellent defensively. Tampa Bay holds a moderate .006 advantage in defensive efficiency, but per Baseball Prospectus, Texas retakes the league (indeed, leads all of baseball) when considering park effects.
Conclusions
Admittedly, this is an ungainly and imperfect analysis. However, I feel Texas’s passably healthy and revamped roster compares favorably with Tampa Bay’s and largely (if not totally) eliminates the six-game difference between them. This is an awfully close matchup. I’d still rank Tampa Bay as the favorite, if only because of home-field advantage, but a Texas victory shouldn’t be considered an upset. Not that I’m putting money on the outcome (having my emotional well-being on the line is plenty, thanks), but I’d take Texas at +125 over the Rays at -145.
And now, time to live on the edge of my seat for a few days. Hopefully, the next few weeks. Go Rangers.
Posted by Lucas at 04:21 AM