The Ranger Rundown

March 28, 2007

Fired!

ESPN has discontinued offering Fantasy Baseball Correspondents, effective immediately, so I’m out of a “job.” I found out second-hand from another correspondent, who tried to post a new story, only to discover the uplink had disappeared. He informed someone upstairs, who replied: “I sent an email to the correspondents to let them know that we are discontinuing correspondents this year. Thanks for all your help!”

Neither I nor many of the other correspondents received said email, but in my case I’d bet he was using something like tex05@scottlucas.com, which I deleted after 2005. Given that this was my sixth year, I would’ve preferred they’d used the actual, working email address listed in my ESPN profile, and I also would’ve preferred they’d cut us loose before the busiest time of year for a fantasy writer, but oh well.

That said, I’m not displeased. Five years ago, the correspondents were an intergral part of ESPN’s fantasy product, and I was proud to be part of it. There was a group of people back then: Kent Williams, Mick Doherty, John Gizzi, maybe me, and several others, who were equal to or better than any paid roto writer. As ESPN expanded Eric Karabell’s role and added more paid writers over the years, the correspondents became superfluous. Until 2005 I used to receive 4-5 emailed questions per day during March. Last March I received a ten, total. So far this March, four. This was to be my last year.

I’m still (online) friends with several former correspondents, and when the ESPN gig proved too stifling (you can only write so much about fantasy ball for one team) I created the blog you’re reading now. Plus, I now have the affiliation with Jamey Newberg.

So, to make a short story very long, if you’re looking for fantasy advice about the Rangers, I’m afraid you won’t find it here. It was (mostly) fun while it lasted.

Also, my fantasy league with eleven other fired correspondents has its draft on Sunday. It’s an ESPN league, of course.

Posted by Lucas at 02:58 PM

March 21, 2007

ESPN Fantasy Column

Outfielder Update
I’d talked last week about Brad Wilkerson lacking the platoon issues that cut into the value of guys like Kenny Lofton and Frank Catalanotto. As it turns out, manager Ron Washington has hinted that Cat may get at-bats against lefties despite his well-established track of mediocrity against them. Since Wilkerson has done little to encourage management this spring, and I don’t peg Nelson Cruz for more than 400 appearances anyway, I’d guess that Cat’s extra at-bats would come mostly at Wilkerson’s expense.

So, downgrade Wilkerson some, and upgrade Catalanotto a tiny amount. In any case, neither is draftable in most mixed leagues. The Ranger outfield situation is very fluid and ought to change throughout the season, another reason to look dimly upon all possible draftees. Sammy Sosa is batting .417 with three homers. I put no weight in Spring Training stats as an indicator of future performance, but he has definitely cemented a significant role on the team to start the season. I remain skeptical of his fantasy potential. You know, “a foolish consistency” and all that.

Teixeira Returns, Young On The Way
Mark Teixeira returned to action Sunday showing no ill effects from his bruised knee. Texas will attempt to get him as many at-bats as possible during the next ten days since he has always begun the season slowly. He probably will again, but don’t sweat it. Michael Young should return Thursday or Friday after having sutures removed from his left ear. He required surgery after being hit on the ear. He should be fine; don’t adjust his value based on this mishap.

Gagne
Eric Gagne pitched in an “A” game for the first time this spring and allowed a solo homer in one inning. It was also his first appearance after only one day of rest. Texas will handle him with care early on, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Akinori Otsuka get a save chance if Gagne’s pitched the previous two days. All the more reason to have Aki as a fallback in AL-only leagues, and he’s a decent late-round pick in mixed leagues.

Third and Fourth Starter
As is stands, Brandon McCarthy with be the #3 starter followed by Robinson Tejeda. Both have mean stuff and potential, but neither has any value in mixed leagues. I project McCarthy as a poor man’s Kevin Millwood: 10 wins, 140 strikeouts, 4.80 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP in 175-180 innings. The strikeouts and WHIP are respectable, but his penchant for homers will drive up that ERA.

As for Tejeda: 8 wins, 105 Ks, 5.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 155 innings. That’s an ugly line, but that’s what the computer tells me. The problem is that Tejeda pitched 52 of last year’s 73 innings on the road and was also outstanding with runners in scoring position. A more even distribution of innings and typical RISP performance will not help his fantasy production.

Battle For Fifth Starter
Hah, just kidding! I’m not writing about the Rangers’ fifth starter in a fantasy column. Just don’t draft him.

Posted by Lucas at 01:20 PM

March 13, 2007

ESPN Fantasy Column

Injury Notes

Eric Gagne pitched his first live action of the spring and threw his full assortment of pitches with solid results. He can’t and won’t dial it up like he did in 2003, but he has become a worthwhile fantasy risk. Right now he’s averaged 18th among closers taken in ESPN’s mixed leagues and 10th in AL-only leagues, both of which feel right at this time. He has room to move up, though I can’t see him ranking among the top half of closers prior to the season because of his injury history. Akinori Otsuka is a fine caddy and darn near a must-own for Gagne owners in large mixed leagues and single leagues.

Mark Teixeira missed Monday’s game with a sore knee and won’t play again until at least Friday. That’s all I know. Texas is probably just being careful, but owners drafting this week should move him down a few slots.

Outfielder Nelson Cruz was tested for a concussion and fractures after Yovani Gallardo plunked him on the noggin. Results were negative, and he should be back soon.

Pitcher Projections

KEVIN MILLWOOD
2006: 16-12, 4.52 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 157 SO, 215 IP
2007: 14-11, 4.22 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 158 SO, 210 IP

Millwood pitched very close to my expectations in 2006, but I also predicted greatness from Brad Wilkerson, so there I go. Millwood’s a pretty ordinary fantasy pitcher, useful only in AL-only leagues and large mixed leagues. His 2006 was highly indicative of what to expect this season. Yes, I project a lower ERA despite a higher WHIP. Millwood was terrible last year with runners in scoring position and seemed to allow his baserunners in huge clumps; a more even distribution should help his ERA.

VICENTE PADILLA
2006: 15-10, 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 156 SO, 200 IP
2007: 12-11, 4.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 155 SO, 200 IP

My normally trusty computer predicts a very slight decline for Padilla, but that may be a hangover from his injury-riddled 2004 and 2005. Padilla offers a performance remarkably similar to Millwood overall, though he also will melt down on occasion and disgorge some pitching lines that will kill owners in head-to-head leagues. Another pitcher who doesn’t quite merit a look in typical mixed leagues, but if you’re in need of strikeouts, he and Millwood will provide.

Outfielder Projections

Keep in mind that the Ranger outfield situation can change on a daily basis. I don’t believe that any outfielder is worth owning in mixed leagues with twelve or fewer teams.

KENNY LOFTON
2006: 522 PA, .301/.360/.403, 79 R, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 32 SB
2007: 500 PA, .280/.335/.375, 75 R, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 22 SB

Among players age 40 or higher, only Rickey Henderson and Davey Lopes have achieved 30 stolen bases. Kenny Lofton won’t join them, and his other stats should decline also. I think there’s a little upside in the batting line listed above, but he is going to be 40 in May, and what would be really strange is if he didn’t decline some. Don’t factor in a park bounce; Lofton doesn’t hit for power, and Dodger Stadium was actually favorable to hitters last year. Since he won’t start against lefties, Lofton won’t amass enough runs to counteract his lack of power and RBI. He’s suitable strictly for AL-only leagues and very large mixed leagues.

FRANK CATALANOTTO
2006: 499 PA, .300/.376/.439, 56 R, 7 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB
2007: 500 PA, .290/.360/.418, 60 R, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 1 SB

Skydome has favored hitters just as much as The Ballpark during the past three years, so Little Cat doesn’t gain anything by coming to Arlington. Plus, he’s already spent three years in Texas and has career highs of only 77 runs, 15 homers and 59 RBI. Yawn. He’s not the same player as Lofton but is generally as useful in fantasy leagues. He’ll sit against lefties. Catalanotto stopped running four years ago.

BRAD WILKERSON
2006: 365 PA, .222/.306/.422, 56 R, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 3 SB
2007: 550 PA, .253/.353/.465, 70 R, 22 HR, 74 RBI, 3 SB

Of the Rangers’ 24 outfield options, I believe Wilkerson has the best chance to help a mixed-league team. I’m not suggesting you draft him, not in small and average-sized leagues, anyway. However, he lacks the platoon issues that hinder other Rangers and stands to get the most playing time. If he returns to full-time status, he could become a worthwhile free agent in many mixed leagues. 25 homers are possible.

SAMMY SOSA
2005: 424 PA, .221/.295/.376, 39 R, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB
2006: Did not play, not even for the Long Island Ducks
2007: 250 PA, .235/.310/.430, 28 R, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB

Swingin’ Sammy has ripped the cover off the ball in Arizona, and Ranger management and players have professed their Sosa love. Neat. On a totally unrelated topic, Kevin Mench batted .417 and slugged .929 in Spring Training last year and by July had played himself out of a regular job and off the Ranger roster.

I’m not saying Sosa will fail, but I am saying his spring numbers are indicative of jack squat. His last fantasy-worthy season was 2004, and even then he didn’t offer much beyond his 35 homers. Attribute his awful 2005 to injuries and emotional upheaval if you like, but that won’t make him any younger or make up for an entire year out of baseball. Worth a flyer in AL-only leagues; otherwise, pass. I hope I’m wrong.

NELSON CRUZ
2006: 138 PA, .223/.261/.385, 15 R, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB
2007: 400 PA, .250/.310/.425, 52 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 8 SB

Cruz is no easier to predict than Sosa. After hitting .300 with 20 homers and 17 steals in AAA, Cruz struggled mightily in the big leagues. Already 26, he doesn’t have that much upside. He also might begin the season starting only against lefties, with more at-bats to come based on performance and injuries to others. An intriguing late-middle pick in single leagues.

Posted by Lucas at 05:57 PM

March 01, 2007

ESPN Fantasy Column

I’m not going to offer outfield predictions yet because I haven’t a clue right now. It’s not so much a question of predicting quality, though unproven Nelson Cruz and back-from-the-void Sammy Sosa present their difficulties. Instead, it’s figuring out who will play.

The Rangers have eight outfielders on the 40-man roster with Major League experience. They also have this non-roster invite named Sosa. They’ll be fighting for playing time at just four positions (outfield plus DH). 2,800 plate appearances spread amongst nine hitters? Awkward.

We can eliminate two straight off. Freddy Guzman has practically no chance of making the team out of Spring Training. The Rangers didn’t sign Marlon Byrd to a Major League deal because they thought Guzman was The Answer. Likewise, Victor Diaz hasn’t a prayer.

The optimal lineup might involve starting Brad Wilkerson, Kenny Lofton and Sosa in the outfield plus Frank Catalanotto at DH against righties, then Wilkerson, Byrd, and Nelson Cruz plus Jason Botts against lefties. That requires seven outfielders. If Texas carries twelve pitchers, two catchers, and five infielders, it has slots for only six outfielders. Very awkward. Unfortunately for Botts fans, getting from six outfielders to five is painfully simple: if Sosa makes the team, Botts does not.

What else is most likely? Lofton and Catalanotto will probably start every game against righties and sit against lefties. The platoon will limit each of them to about 500 plate appearances. Byrd will replace Lofton against righties, giving him around 150. Guzman may get a large mug of coffee holding about 50 appearances, and perhaps Diaz squeezes in with 30.

The rest is frightfully unknown. Not much on which to base a fantasy strategy, is it?

So, with the probables out of the way, here are my semi-educated guesses that are subject to change based on injuries, Spring Training performance, and the flavor of yogurt I eat for breakfast.

Sosa will become 2007’s version of Phil Nevin. He’ll make the team, bat fifth, and hit just well enough to keep a full-time job for a while. After a lengthy slump, Texas will platoon him and eventually cut bait. Let’s give him 250 plate appearances.

Nelson Cruz will make the team, but, as with much of last year, start only against lefties. He’ll gain more starts after Texas bids Sosa adieu, but not enough to qualify for the batting title. Say 400 appearances.

Poor Jason Botts will finally get a real chance at a regular Major League job by June and achieve about 300 plate appearances. Or, perhaps Texas will again trade for a big bat in July, and Botts will again spend the late summer torching the Iowa rotation.

Wilkerson makes out better than anyone. With no serious platoon split and no obvious successor to left field, he plays frequently and attains 600 PAs.

Making all these predictions on March 1 is the height of foolishness, and in a few months I’ll probably look back on this exercise with embarrassment. But, they do reveal a common thread, which is that Texas may not have a single outfielder worth drafting in average-sized mixed leagues.

Really, who do you want? Lofton has the .300 average and plenty of steals, but he also won’t play every day, hasn’t surpassed the modest sum of 80 runs in three years, and is a negative in homers and RBI. Catalanotto likewise won’t play full-time and undercuts his .297 lifetime batting average with bland career highs of 83 runs, 13 homers and 59 RBI. Cruz and Botts are unproven 26-year-olds. Sosa is an unproven 38-year-old. Wilkerson is coming off shoulder surgery, and I believe he struck out in 142% of his at-bats last season. Most of these players will be pretty good baseball players and help Texas win. They’re just not nearly as likely to be good fantasy players, at least in mixed leagues.

The situation is fluid. I’ll try to explain it as March progresses.

Posted by Lucas at 10:51 AM

February 26, 2007

ESPN Fantasy Column

Infield Projections

MARK TEIXEIRA
2006: 727 PA, .282/.371/.514, 99 R, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 2 SB
2007: 725 PA, .290/.373/.546, 104 R, 39 HR, 124 RBI, 3 SB
Batting Position: Probably 4th to start, maybe 3rd later on.
Upside: Low
Downside: Low

Always a slow starter, Teixeira didn’t speed up until mid-July last season and disappointed owners who drafted him in the first round. Tex inexplicably struggled at home (.266 with 12 homers) and was strangely powerless in the 1st inning (.245/.368/.336). He hadn’t experienced those troubles before and should be free of them in 2007. Expect slight-to-moderate increases in all categories except steals. Also expect another mediocre April and an eventual reward for not trading him during said month. He might aggravate you during the spring, but his Teixeira’s 2006 totals of 99 runs, 33 homers and 110 RBI were his worst since his rookie season. Teixeira is as healthy as an ox. I rank him third among true first basemen behind Pujols and Howard, fourth if including David Ortiz.

IAN KINSLER
2006: 473 PA, .286/.347/.454, 65 R, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 11 SB
2007: 650 PA, .276/.340/.445, 85 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 16 SB
Batting Position: As low as 9th against righties and probably 2nd against lefties to start the season. Could be 2nd or anywhere between 5th and 9th eventually.
Upside: Low (see below)
Downside: Moderate

Kinsler roared out of the gate as a true rookie in 2006, injured his thumb sliding into second base, and finished the season rather flat. ESPN ranks him 15th among eligible second basemen, but I believe he can help owners in all but the smallest of mixed leagues. That thumb injury held him to only 473 plate appearances last year; a reasonable 650 this season would boost his rookie numbers by 37%. Thus, Kinsler could surmount 80 runs and RBI, 20 homers and 15 steals simply by showing up. Only a handful of second basemen can say the same. I say his upside is low because I already grade him so highly.

On the downside, there is some chance that the real Kinsler is the one who hit .267/.329/.399 after the All-Star break, and his tremendous start (.320/.379/.553 during the first half) was a fluke that just about any player can have. He also hit extraordinarily well with runners in scoring position; a return to normalcy could reduce his RBI total considerably. Further, new manager Ron Washington has considered batting him ninth against righties, which would cut into all his counting stats.

Again, I’m not projecting fantasy greatness for Kinsler, just solid production at a lackluster position. Are you counting on 35-year-old Ray Durham to repeat his career-best 26 homers, or on Brandon Phillips to repeat his out-of-the-blue success, or on 39-year-old Jeff Kent to stay on the field? Kinsler just might best all of them.

HANK BLALOCK
2006: 646 PA, .266/.325/.401, 76 R, 16 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB
2007: 650 PA, .269/.328/.428, 76 R, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB
Batting Position: Probably 6th to start, between 5th and 7th as the season progresses. Possibly on the bench against lefties toward the end of the season.
Upside: High
Downside: Moderate

A shoulder injury hampered Blalock during last season’s second half, but it provided only temporary cover for what has become a depressing decline into mediocrity. Blalock hit .216/.281/.315 against lefties and .253/.311/.383 on the road last year. He might be a platoon player (or worse) if not for his astounding first two full years at the ages of 22 and 23. Last year, I suggested he’d partially return to form and recommended trading him early if he started hot. This year, in small and medium-sized mixed leagues, I wouldn’t bother with him. Unlike at second base, the hot corner is rich in fantasy talent. Blalock doesn’t measure up.

That said, Blalock has publicly rededicated himself to his craft. Blalock is only 26, a year younger than both Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard, and has genuine potential to recapture his former glory. He’s a worthwhile risk in AL-only leagues and worth eyeing in mixed leagues. Alas, he has a long history of cratering in the second half. Irrespective of how well he plays to start the season, his owners should trade him by the All-Star break, even if for a seemingly modest return.

MICHAEL YOUNG
2006: 748 PA, .314/.356/.459, 93 R, 14 HR, 103 RBI, 7 SB
2007: 725 PA, .304/.351/.461, 97 R, 17 HR, 93 RBI, 7 SB
Batting Position: Probably 3rd to start, maybe 2nd later on.
Upside: Low
Downside: Low

Young finally crested at age 29, showing declines in most categories for the first time in his career. His 2005 appears to be a mild outlier, which is to say he’s only excellent, not other-worldly. Though Young won’t accrue the steals of Reyes and Rollins or the homers of Tejada, he is the rare shortstop who will surpass 90 runs and RBI. Like Teixeira, Young doesn’t get hurt or take days off. He’s averaged 734 plate appearances per season during the last four years. After the frontrunner Tejada, I rank Rollins, Young, Jeter and Reyes very closely in that order.

Posted by Lucas at 06:17 PM

February 16, 2007

ESPN Fantasy Column

Greetings
I’m Scott Lucas, would-be fantasy expert and ESPN’s correspondent for the Texas Rangers. 2007 begins my sixth year on the job. When I started in ’02 I was unmarried, unemployed, and drove a 1980 Volvo 240. Now I have a wife, a job, and a car built several years after Pink Floyd concluded its tour for The Wall. I owe it all to ESPN Fantasy Games.

ESPN now archives columns here, but if you want columns plus other bloggy goodness on the Rangers please visit rangers.scottlucas.com. Drop me a question at tex07@scottlucas.com for specific advice. Now, some first impressions:

Can Sosa Contribute?
From 2002-2005, Sammy Sosa saw annual decreases in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, runs, homers and RBI. In 2006 he sat on his couch and turned 37. I queried a list of over-35 players from 1969 to present who achieved at least 200 plate appearances in a season, then completely missed the following season (no MLB, minors or overseas play), then returned and again surpassed 200 PAs. I found six: Al Martin, Kevin Elster, Tony Fernandez, Ryne Sandberg, Ray Lankford and Andres Galarraga. Of the six, only Sandberg and Big Cat played enough and well enough to help a fantasy team. The odds are very long.

Most likely, Sosa will win a job in Spring Training after pummeling some NRIs and youngsters bound for AA, hit about .235/.310/.430 with just enough homers to avoid complete uselessness, then lose his job by mid-May. Ranger fans will recognize this as a repeat of the 2006 Phil Nevin Season Arc. Nevin himself imitated the 2003 version of Brad Fullmer, who imitated 2001’s Ken Caminiti. It’s a proud Ranger tradition. In all seriousness, Sosa is a wild card. My trusty computer tells me he’ll hit .235 with a little power, but the standard deviation is huge. Mixed leaguers drafting early should just avoid him except as a last-round what-the-heck pick. Even AL-only owners should be skeptical. Probably better to let an opponent draft him.

What Of The Other Outfielders?
It’s a mess. Kenny Lofton can still hit .300 but won’t start (or won’t hit well) against lefties. He hasn’t surpassed 80 runs since 2003. He did steal 32 bases last year and will be allowed to run, but he also hits the big Four Oh in May. Frank Catalanotto likewise won’t play much against lefties. Though he’s a steady .300 hitter, the rest is pretty thin: an average of 56 runs, eight homers and 58 RBI during the past two years, and no speed. Little Cat is for single-league owners only. Brad Wilkerson has a shiny new shoulder and hopes to avenge last year’s debacle. He may produce more fantasy happiness than the other outfielders, but he’s yet another risky selection. Nelson Cruz has shown only flashes of his potential and may end up on the wrong end of a platoon. Poor Jason Botts slugged .562 in a ferociously hitter-unfriendly AAA park last season but must await the results of the Sosa Experiment.

Closers
Eric Gagne recently threw off the mound for the first time in months, and he proclaimed himself satisfied. For three years he was possibly the most effective closer ever plus offered more strikeouts than many rotation pitchers. Now, he’s a giant question mark. Understand that if he’s healthy, the closing job is his at Akinori Otsuka’s expense. Were I drafting today, I’d rate Gagne below most decent closers with reasonable grips on their jobs but above fluid scenarios like Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Florida. Especially in AL-only leagues and large mixed leagues, I’d protect my investment by drafting Otsuka in a late round. Teams will be interested in Otsuka, and Texas may trade him if Gagne performs well.

Rotation
Kevin Millwood conveniently performed to my expectations last year, allowing owners this year to draft him based on who he really is instead of the guy who posted a sub-3.00 ERA in Cleveland. Actually, his 2006 ERA of 4.52 was slightly unlucky. In 2007, he could drop to 4.25 or so with an adequate WHIP and a little over 150 strikeouts. He’ll have some use in larger mixed leagues. Vicente Padilla has an erratic track record and is tougher to predict. He has more upside and downside than Millwood. Brandon McCarthy makes the scouts drool but has yet to translate his potential into worthwhile fantasy production. Mixed leaguers (except in very large leagues) needn’t bother, single-leaguers can take a flyer on him late. Robinson Tejeda managed a 4.28 ERA but with thoroughly mediocre peripherals in 14 starts. He’s worth watching but not worth drafting outside of large AL-only leagues.

Posted by Lucas at 06:00 PM

September 28, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

The Last Series
Texas will start Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood, and Robinson Tejeda in the final series of the season at Seattle. Both Padilla and Millwood pitched poorly in their previous starts, but either is a good play against the vanilla Mariners offense in a pitcher’s park. Tejeda is also a surprisingly strong play; he’s allowed only nine runs (just six earned) in his last five starts. If you need a last-day boost, pick him up. Odds are that Seattle (and Texas) will have plenty of backups in the lineup, and they’ll be swinging at everything so they can get home and forget their disappointing season.

Akinori Otsuka won’t pitch again this season because of persistent migraines. Wes Littleton stands the best chance of earning the save opportunities. If another save could affect your rank in the standings, grab him. Those outside keeper leagues can safely drop Aki. For those of you in giant AL-only leagues, Rick Bauer also won’t pitch again.

Hank Blalock is hitting .174/.224/.261 in September. This weekend won’t help. Mark DeRosa has also cooled off (.204/.295/.280) but is still more likely to help a fantasy team than Blalock. Three weeks ago I gave Nelson Cruz a qualified recommendation in AL-only leagues. He started off slowly but had batted .262 with 9 runs, 2 homers, 7 RBI and 1 SB in his last 11 games. He ought to start at least twice, so AL-only and large mixed-league owners ought to consider him.

Thanks For Reading
So concludes my fifth(!) year of writing about the Rangers for ESPN. I hope you’ve gotten some use out of it. Thanks to Eric Karabell for picking me back in 2002, and thanks to Courtney for being the best baseball wife ever.

Posted by Lucas at 07:01 PM

September 07, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

What September Brings
The Rangers have as much chance of winning the division as you do of winning the lottery, but for the most part they’ll continue to play their front-liners until they’re eliminated. Only two notable changes among position players have occurred.

First, Nelson Cruz, acquired as part of the Carlos Lee trade, has become an everyday player. Previously he’d started only against lefties. Cruz hit well in AAA (.302/.378/.528 with 20 steals in 104 games) but has shown little in the Majors except for a three-for-four, two-homer, five RBI afternoon against Oakland three days ago. Still, he’s worth considering in most AL-only leagues if only because almost every full-time player has value. At this point in the season, you should take a chance on him if you needed hitting. Pass if you’re satisfied with how your hitting has contributed to your place in the standings. The loser in Cruz’s ascension is Matt Stairs, who hasn’t started a game this month. Those in larger AL-only leagues probably have little choice but to keep him and hope he gets a few starts down the road. Those in smaller single-leagues and mixed leagues can waive goodbye.

Second, Gerald Laird has started six consecutive games at catcher. Unfortunately, his increased play is not a belated realization on Buck Showalter’s part that Laird is the better catcher right now and for the future. No, Rod Barajas just has a sore back. Though I suspect Laird still won’t start much more than 50% of the time once Barajas recovers, he’ll remain the better choice. Neither has value in typical mixed leagues.

Blalock’s Descent Continues
Hank Blalock briefly abandoned his second-half slump for a few weeks but has since resumed not hitting. Blalock has started 46 of 53 games since the All-Star break and has batted .261 with 23 runs, three homers, and 22 RBI. I would seriously consider dropping him in all but the largest mixed leagues. I’m not saying that because I’m in your league and ready to claim him off waivers. Here’s Blalock’s last three Septembers:

2005 -- .208/.259/.347
2004 -- .250/.346/.398
2003 -- .226/.245/.453

Blalock is batting .136/.136/.136 with no runs, homers or RBI in five games this month. He’ll should still earn a good number of RBIs simply because of his position in the batting order, but otherwise he could actually hurt your team. A minor injury has relegated him to DH lately, but he should continue to start against all righties and about 50% of lefty pitchers. Mark DeRosa may be available in your league and probably constitutes a better play. Really.

Pitchers
Kevin Millwood has overcome his home-park issues lately, making him a slightly better play in mixed leagues. Don’t bother with him if a small hit in ERA would cost you points. Wins and strikeouts are what he contributes. Vicente Padilla is nearly identical to Millwood statistically but isn’t nearly as widely owned, mostly because he’s not a “name.” If your mixed league is large enough for Millwood to help but he’s unavailable, consider Padilla. Simlar to Cruz above, he’s a choice for owners needing to take risks to catch up, not for owners maintaining a lead.

Adam Eaton had a career ERA+ of 92 in San Diego and has an ERA+ of 96 in Texas. Who would have guessed? Given that he’s allowed twenty walks and eight homers in just 42 innings, he’s lucky to have an ERA of 4.93. A weak play in all but the largest of AL-only leagues. Robinson Tejeda and Edinson Volquez round out the present rotation and are toxic in any league or format.

Posted by Lucas at 06:25 PM

August 06, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Laird
Buck Showalter has promoted Gerald Laird from Catcher 2 to Catcher 1(A). Early this season, Laird started only once every four games or so. He then graduated to designated lefty-starter and Kevin Millwood personal assistant. Now, he has retained his full-time status against lefties plus 50/50 status against righties. If this arrangement holds, Laird can expect between 55%-65% of the playing time versus Rod Barajas. As such, Laird is the preferable choice in AL-only leagues, though his average should decline some. Laird still has only minimal value in typical mixed leagues.

Lee, Cruz and Stairs
Carlos Lee has done little in a Texas uniform (.259/.286/.359, 7 runs, 0 homers, 3 RBI in ten games). He's healthy, if that's crossed your mind. He should be fine.

Nelson Cruz has batted .300 and hit his first MLB homer since joining Texas. He'll start strictly against lefties for now, so he has little value even in AL-only leagues. As he's fairly young and not a rent-a-player like Stairs, he could gain additional playing time if Texas falls out of the division race. Keep him in mind should that happen. He supplied average, power and speed in AAA.

Matt Stairs has started three of seven games as a Ranger. With Brad Wilkerson hurting and struggling, Stairs stands to pick up a more at-bats. However, if Texas falters, the aforementioned Cruz may add some start against righties at Stairs's expense. In sum, his situation is fluid. He has modest value in AL-only leagues, a bit less than when he toiled for Kansas City. His owners must carefully monitor his situation and always bench him against lefties.

Wilkerson
Yeesh. Brad Wilkerson may have decided to forego surgery until the "season is decided," but his owners need to consider excising him now. Over the All Star break he received another cortisone shot which may have cured his pain but sure didn't cure mine. Wilkerson has batted .167 with five runs, two homers and 11 RBI since the break and has started only four of the last eight games. At the moment, he's sitting against lefties and sharing time with Stairs against righties. He's not worth the bother in most mixed leagues, and even in small AL-only leagues he's dubious. Those in larger AL-only leagues should continue their prayer vigils. Yes, I did think he'd have a great season. Yes, I am paying dearly for that opinion.

Blalock
I wrote about him at my blog on Saturday. Blalock has batted well in August -- .304 with two triples(?) -- but has a history of extreme second-half fades and persistent struggles against lefties and on the road. Showalter has benched him in two of the last three games against a lefty starter. I kid you not: over the coming weeks he could actually hurt owners in mixed leagues. His owners must practice active roster management to protect themselves.

Eaton, Wells and Volquez
Management cautiousness, erratic control and erratic umpiring have limited Adam Eaton to ten innings in three starts, making his future difficult to gauge. I wasn't fond of him before the season and haven't changed my outlook. He posted an ERA of 4.34 prior to 2006, seemingly adequate but earned in the decidedly pitcher-friendly realm of Petco Park. I definitely wouldn't bother with him in mixed leagues. In AL-only leagues he'll help owners in need of strikeouts and perhaps wins, but he could give up ground in ERA and WHIP.

I'm even less enamored of Kip Wells. Perhaps you'd read that he rebounded from his shaky return after surgery. He allowed only four runs in his last three starts. Unfortunately, he also allowed 30 baserunners in those starts (1.52 WHIP) and nine more in five innings against Minnesota. Eventually, those baserunners will become runs. Wells does provide an upgrade on John Rheinecker but hasn't pitched well consistently since 2003, and his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff. Furthermore, he'll miss Monday's start because of a sore shoulder. Avoid him unless you have little to lose. It's hard to envision his presence on a winning fantasy roster.

Wells's absence opens the door for Edinson Volquez to start against Oakland on Monday. One of the Rangers' top pitching prospects, Volquez has an eyepopping 130 strikeouts and just 89 hits allowed in 120 Triple-A innings. He also has, gulp, 72 walks. Volquez struggled mightily in a few MLB starts in 2005 and is probably still too raw to offer much value. Still, his upside is substantial. Make a note to check his performance Monday night.

Posted by Lucas at 11:59 PM

July 28, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

The Trade And You
Texas has traded outfielders Kevin Mench and Lance Nix and pitcher Francisco Cordero (plus a minor-leaguer) for outfielders Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz. A fantasy perspective:

Carlos Lee
If you hold the top waiver position in an AL-only league, you have to claim him. If not, put in a claim and hope the folks above you are snoozing. Lee isn't quite a five-category stud but comes pretty close, batting .286 with 60 runs, 28 homers, 81 RBI and 12 steals. Texas's offense is only average and during 2006 The Ballpark hasn't favored hitters as much as in prior years. Also, Lee probably won't run as much in Texas. Nevertheless, he's a terrific fantasy player and an obvious must-have. Those is mixed leagues should expect fewer steals and perhaps slight increases in other stats.

Nelson Cruz
Reportedly, the 26-year-old Cruz will make his MLB debut in right field for Texas on Saturday. Cruz has batted .302 with 19 homers and 17 steals for AAA Toledo. He's drawn 42 walks in 412 plate appearances but also has 100 strikeouts. A righthanded batter, he'll probably start only against lefties for the time being. Those in AL-only leagues may consider spending a low-ranking waiver claim on him. I wouldn't bother with him in typical-sized mixed leagues.

Wilkerson/DeRosa
Cruz, Brad Wilkerson and Mark DeRosa must share two positions. DeRosa has tailed off badly since the All-Star break (.208/.276/.340), but Wilkerson has done no better (.186/.217/.395). I expect DeRosa to continue to play almost every day, and Wilkerson again will sit against lefties. Both are dubious choices in average or smaller mixed leagues. Was I ever wrong about Wilkerson.

The Departures
Mench will move into Lee's position and ought to experience negligible-to-slight declines in production. Nix probably will stay in AAA and has no value except in insanely deep NL-only leagues. With Derrick Turnbow's recent troubles, Cordero might resume closing duties. Mixed leaguers in desperate need of saves should take a flyer on him. By the time his waiver delay expires, NL-only owners should have a better idea of his usage in Milwaukee and can then assess whether he's worth a claim.

Be Advised
Texas may not be done.

Posted by Lucas at 02:01 PM

July 16, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Trade Blalock
Hank Blalock has posted solid fantasy numbers thus far, though his OBP of .343 and slugging percentage of .429 leave much to be desired. Unfortunately, he has declined in the second half of every season, and in 2004 and 2005 the deterioration was severe. Since 2004, Blalock has played exactly 162 games in the second half and is batting .234 with 76 runs, 18 homers and 77 RBI. Not a total loss, but certainly not what his owners expect. Perhaps 2006 is the year Blalock plots a different course, but probability suggests he won’t. Getting value in trade based on his first-half numbers would be a smart move.

Same Old
Who are you going to believe: Buck Showalter, or your lying eyes? During the All-Star Break, Mssr. Showalter stated that both Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench would play more often during the second half. Yet Wilkerson sat on the bench Saturday in favor of Jerry Hairston, and Kevin Mench is resting on Sunday. Until a string of lineups provides contrary evidence, assume that Wilkerson will continue to sit against lefties and Mench will rest every third game or so. As to whether either will hit to expectations… Wilkerson responded well Thursday to a cortisone shot for his sore shoulder, while Mench is one-for-eleven since the ASB. Much to my dismay, both have devolved into marginal plays in typical mixed leagues. But I’ve been very wrong about a great many things this season, so use my advice with extreme caution.

Eaton On Schedule
Adam Eaton could rejoin the rotation as soon as July 25th. I don’t expect much from a fantasy perspective. He spent his previous six seasons in extremely pitcher-friendly San Diego but has a career ERA of 4.34 and WHIP of 1.34. Other than the incentive of pitching for his next contract, nothing indicates that Eaton could surpass those modest numbers in the heat of Arlington. I wouldn’t touch him in a mixed league.

The Ranger rotation will consist of Eaton, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, John Koronka, and one of John Rheinecker, John Wasdin, and Kameron Loe. I suspect Texas will use the hotter of Rheinecker and Wasdin. Millwood tired quickly but otherwise successfully overcame the strained biceps that cost him his last start.

Trade Winds
The Rangers could use a starting pitcher and another bat. GM Jon Daniels proved his boldness last offseason with the Soriano and Eaton trades, so a blockbuster acquisition isn’t out of the question. Having said that, I think it’s unlikely. Who, if anyone, the Rangers acquire will depend on how willing they are to relinquish one or more of their four pitching prospects (Edinson Volquez, John Danks, Tom Diamond and Eric Hurley). They don’t appear to be very willing. In any case, those in AL-only leagues should angle for the highest possible waiver position in order to acquire fresh talent from interleague trades. Volquez has pitched well in AAA lately and is an option to join the rotation (but a risky selection for fantasy ball).

No top-notch Ranger fantasy player is trade bait. I’d guess that Francisco Cordero and Kevin Mench are the most likely departures.

Posted by Lucas at 01:46 PM

July 07, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Quick Pre-ASB Advice
Texas faces Francisco Liriano Saturday and Johan Santana Sunday. Consider benching your marginal Ranger hitters, assuming you have an adequate replacement. Since both pitchers are lefties, it’s possible that catcher Gerald Laird and (insert long, weary sigh here) Jerry Hairston could start both of those days in lieu of Rod Barajas and Brad Wilkerson. They’ll almost certainly get at least one start.

Hairston has played more often than I ever would have imagined but still won’t start more than 50% of the time in the long run. Given his typically anemic bat, he’s still worth only a pittance in just about any conceivable fantasy format. Yes, yes, I know he’s played excellent outfield defense as a Ranger, but having a guy with a career OPS of .698 on an outfield corner makes my skin crawl.

Minnesota has won 21 of 25 and scored six runs per game in the process. Neither John Rheinecker and John Koronka, this weekend’s Ranger starters, look like especially solid plays, particularly given their mound opposition. In theory, much of the benefit of owning any Texas starter comes from the increased probability of a win, courtesy of the high-octane Ranger offense. That is, an extra three or four wins can offset the mediocre ERA. Trouble is, the Rangers doesn’t have a good offense. They rank seventh in the AL with a shrug-worthy 5.1 runs per game.

Kevin Millwood won’t pitch this weekend while nursing a sore biceps. The team expects him healthy and available after the break. A couple of bad starts have pushed his ERA back up to a queasy 4.83. He’s better than that, but not by much. In mixed leagues with ten or fewer teams, he’s of marginal value.

Mark Teixeira promptly began an oh-for-fifteen run the day after I declared him “hot.” For whatever reason, he’s hitting .215/.307/.339 his first time up against a pitcher and .337/.382/.526 in subsequent appearances. Yell at me if you like, but keep him in your lineup.

Adam Eaton may return by the end of July, probably at the expense of Kameron Loe, who himself is on the DL and about two weeks from returning.

Posted by Lucas at 08:17 PM

June 26, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

The Ascension of Mark Derosa
Buck Showalter declared Mark Derosa a starter before last weekend, hardly earth-shattering news regarding a player who had already played twenty consecutive games. On the other hand, the announcement does provide some certainty for potential mixed-league owners. Derosa’s best quality is his .342 batting average, but as I wrote a few days ago, his .406 average on balls in play is historically aberrant and won’t hold up. Since he doesn’t hit many homers or run much, his fantasy value is limited even with the high average. Without it, he’s garden variety. Still, batting second or fifth for Texas makes almost anyone respectable, and many owners could benefit by trying to ride his hot streak. He’s available in 86% of ESPN’s mixed leagues.

Teixeira Heats Up
Mark Teixeira is heating up. Enjoy.

OF/DH Carousel
Jerry Hairston has seven starts in the last sixteen games, almost enough to make him a worthwhile player in AL-only leagues. The problem is, he’s not very good, so don’t bother playing him. Why you and I know this but the manager doesn’t is a mystery. Giving seven outfield-corner starts to a guy with a career line of .259/.331/.366 might make sense in some eldritch Lovecraftian universe, but not this one.

Meanwhile, Jason Botts has only four starts over those same sixteen games and won’t accrue more than a few pinch at-bats while in San Francisco. I really didn’t expect Texas to call him up just to let him watch other boys play, yet there he is. As I mentioned last week, he can’t expect many starts as long as Mark Derosa plays every day, because he then forces either Brad Wilkerson or Kevin Mench to the bench (a too common occurrence without Botts’s help). Those in larger AL-only leagues might wait for the upcoming homestand to see if he earns enough playing time to help a fantasy squad. Otherwise, it’s time to move on. I’d like to say that he’ll start more often if Texas falls out of contention, but I’m at a loss to explain the recent decision-making of the powers that be.

Brad Wilkerson spent three of his last four games chatting with Botts from the safety of the dugout. He rebounded well from his awful April but has again struggled in June, batting .200/.243/.431. When he’s played, he has at least offered decent counting stats despite his weak average. History suggests he’ll improve, so don’t cut him except in smaller mixed leagues.

Likewise, Kevin Mench is floundering his way through June (.206/.306/.302) and sitting about 25% of the time. Treat him as you would Wilkerson. He tends to hit better after the All-Star Break.

Kinsler Settles Down
Ian Kinsler is batting .259/.333/.493 in 25 games since returning from his thumb injury. I expected the so-so average and OBP; the power is a pleasant surprise. I’ll tediously reiterate my claim that true rookies rarely make for good fantasy players. Kinsler may slip to the fringes of worthiness in mixed leagues depending on their sizes, so keep an eye on him and potential replacements.

The Ballpark
Typically, The Ballpark achieves maximum hitter-friendliness during July and August. In fact, to date, the Rangers and their opponents have scored more runs per games on the road (10.54) than in Arlington (10.17). Something to keep in mind when predicting future performances of Ranger players.

Pitchers
Five consecutive quality starts have dropped Kevin Millwod’s ERA to 4.29. His strikeout rate has fallen in the process – a modest 5.7 per nine innings during that span. During the previous three years, he has a 4.11 ERA before the All-Star Break and .343 afterwards, so perhaps he stands to improve a little more. I think that if he finishes the season with his current ERA and 1.31 WHIP, owners should be satisfied.

Adam Eaton could return within a month. Here’s my preseason prediction with the injury caveats deleted: “10 wins, 4.90 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 130 Ks, 170 innings. Eaton has a career ERA of 4.34 in the best pitching environment in the National League. You don’t need a computer or even an abacus to understand how his flyball tendencies should translate to the AL and Arlington. His wins and strikeouts can help AL-only owners, and he is pitching for his next contract.” So, I’m not very high on him. Depending on how John Rheinecker and John Koronka hold up, Eaton’s arrival could demote currently DL’ed Kameron Loe to the bullpen role at which he excelled in 2005. Loe has negligible fantasy value.

Vicente Padilla: acceptable in AL-only leagues. Rheinecker and Koronka: acceptable in larger AL-only leagues. Robinson Tejeda: unacceptable.

The Ballpark
Typically, The Ballpark achieves maximum hitter-friendliness during July and August. In fact, to date, the Rangers and their opponents have scored more runs per games on the road (10.54) than in Arlington (10.17). Something to keep in mind when predicting future performances of Ranger players.

Texas completes its run through NL parks on Thursday.

Posted by Lucas at 11:58 PM

June 17, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Teixeira’s Extended Vacation
Mark Teixeira’s homer-free stretch reached 17 games last night, leaving him on pace for a miserly 16 on the season. As mentioned in the Dallas Morning News this week, Teixeira claims to have found a flaw in his swing that reduces homers to doubles. His.280 average and .370 OBP are solid. He’s not hurt and is actually hitting much better in road games than at home. What I can’t fathom is how he’s batting only .230 with no homers and two RBI in 68 first-inning at-bats. He should recover. Be patient.

The Dreaded Job-Sharing Arrangement
Mark Derosa’s hot bat, Jason Botts’ recall from AAA and Ian Kinsler’s activation from the DL have made a mess of the starting lineup. In the 22 games since Kinsler’s return, those three, Kevin Mench and Brad Wilkerson have started the following number of games:

Derosa – 20 (benched 2)
Kinsler – 19 (benched 3)
Mench – 16 (benched 6)
Wilkerson – 16 (benched 6)
Botts – 8 (benched 14, more on him below)

Why does Derosa top the list? He’s batting .338/.395/.525, making a mockery of his career line of .263/.319/.380 coming into the season. Derosa certainly will cool down but seems to have made genuine progress at the plate, so owners in mixed leagues can play him in the near term without too much fear of multiple zeros on the stat line.

Derosa has, in fact, pushed Mench into a utility role, flipping him among left, right and DH depending on the handedness of the pitcher and Showalter’s mood. Mench had a magnificent two-week stretch from late April into early May but has done little since. He has one homer and nine RBI during the last five weeks and a .200 average during June. In the short term, expect him to continue to play against all lefties and 70% of the time overall.

Likewise, Wilkerson has occupied the dugout with irritating frequency. Though on pace to set career bests in runs, homers and RBI, he isn’t walking much and has a mediocre .331 on-base percentage. Also, even though strikeouts are rarely more harmful than an ordinary batted out, his 82 in just 60 games can’t please the guy who writes the lineup. He should continue to produce, if in unattractive fashion.

As to how this shakes out, I’m sometimes skeptical of Showalter’s lineup construction, but in this case I think the players themselves (primarily Derosa) will make his decisions for him. None among Wilkerson, Mench and Deorsa has enough defensive wizardry to play through an extended slump. The hot bats will play.

Fool Me Once...
Throughout much of 2005 and into this season, Texas declined to promote DH Jason Botts because management wanted him to get regular at-bats. No point in bringing him to Arlington just to sit in a 100-degree dugout while wearing long pants. Much to my chagrin, Texas has done just that, starting him only seven of the last 21 games. Perhaps Texas intended to play him more often, but with Derosa’s hot bat in the lineup every day, a start by Botts forces either Mench or Wilkerson to the bench. Botts has a .258 average, one homer, seven runs and four RBI in nine starts. AL-only owners (except perhaps those in eight-team leagues) should hold him for a while longer. He has the bat to reward your patience. If your league does not allow game-time decisions on starts, understand that Botts has yet to start against a lefty and has started against righties just over 50% of the time.

Fool Me Twice...
When Gerald Laird caught consecutive games June 4th and 6th (with a day off in between) and received approbation from Buck Showalter, he seemingly had achieved a permanent increase in playing time. I should know better. Laird has started three of ten games since then and appears to be trapped in the same once-start-per-series limbo as before. Also, Rod Barajas has warmed up in June (.324, six runs, one homer, five RBI), which confirms the current arrangement.

Interleague!
Texas begins interleague play with six home games, so its lineup won’t suffer the indignity of pitchers attempting to hit until the 23rd. Start or bench your Texas players as you normally would.

Posted by Lucas at 03:42 PM

June 07, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Nevin Departs
Texas blessedly traded the permaslumping DH Phil Nevin to the Cubs last week. Since then, Buck Showalter has apportioned the DH at-bats to several players. Recently recalled Jason Botts has started six of thirteen games since joining the Rangers, and that trend should continue. Botts has 98% ownership in ESPN’s AL-only leagues and 4% in mixed leagues. ESPN owners have it right: he probably won’t play quite enough or hit well enough to help most mixed-leaguers. Despite the .318 average he offered in AAA, I expect a mediocre average coupled with respectable power. Botts has yet to start against a lefty.

Laird Ascends
On Tuesday night, catcher Gerald Laird makes his second consecutive start for the first time this season. Laird smacked two homers and two doubles against the White Sox Sunday and finally appears to have Showalter’s attention. He won’t receive more than half the starts in the near term, probably a little less, but AL-only owners in need of catching help should consider him. Laird is currently batting .367 with four homers in only 60 at-bats. He can’t persist at that pace, but .280 with decent power is attainable. If Laird continues to hit well and Rod Barajas remains below .250 with one walk per week, he will graduate to two-thirds of the team’s starts during the season’s second half.

Kinsler Regresses
Ownership of Ian Kinsler has fallen from 90% to 66% in the past week because… well, I suppose because his former owners are disgusted that he won’t bat .440 all season. Kinsler has a tepid line of .214/.266/.433 since returning from a long DL stint for a dislocated thumb. As I’ve mentioned repeatedly to fantasy players, my wife, my cats, and passers by, true rookies very rarely make worthwhile fantasy performers in mixed leagues. Don’t drop him for newly acquired Jerry Hairston or someone of similar (lack of) standing, but most leagues of ten or fewer teams should have someone better or safer in the free-agent pool. Kinsler merits ownership in AL-only leagues.

Matthews Amazes
Gary Matthews has quietly raised his line to .321/.384/.556 with five homers, 27 runs and 26 RBI in only 45 games. Matthews ranks fourth in baseball with 21 doubles, which does fantasy owners no good directly but indicates his recent prowess. He’s approaching 44% ownership in mixed leagues. Matthews can help any fantasy team but might not have a long shelf life. He has a far more modest career line of .254/.331/.410, and though he’s batted better while with Texas, he’s not known for his magic bat and has a history of extreme streakiness. He’s not the “grab him and forget about him” type.

Rheinecker Destroys
John Rheinecker has pitched brilliantly in the two starts since I recommended him only for larger AL-only leagues. I saw at a pitcher with a 1.38 WHIP and 6.3 K/9 in the high minors and shrugged. Meanwhile, Rheinecker contemptuously glared down hitters Bob Gibson-style and chopped them into a fine mulch. So, what of the future? Rheinecker will stay in the rotation at the expense of Robinson Tejeda. He next faces Boston in Fenway and Chicago in Arlington, neither of which is conducive to success. On the other hand, he handled Chicago on the road. Start him in AL-only leagues, don’t take the bait yet in mixed leagues. I doubt he’ll offer more than adequacy in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, but considering that he effectively didn’t exist a few weeks ago, that’s enormous progress.

Millwood Confounds
Last week, Kevin Millwood defied his year-long run of all-or-nothing performances with a workmanlike six-inning, three-run, four-strikeout evening against Seattle. Tuesday night, he dominated Kansas City, as well he should. For those considering acquiring him in mixed leagues, he current stats reflect his long-term status. He should provide ample wins and strikeouts and a mediocre WHIP and ERA. He went seven days between starts because of a sore back and struggled briefly against KC, but he recovered and seems good to go.

Hairston Arrives
Texas acquired utility guy Jerry Hairston Jr. for Nevin. Hairston ranks behind Mark DeRosa in utility guy-ness and certainly won’t displace a regular. No value except in gigantic AL-only leagues. As for DeRosa, he has maintained his near-everyday status and ridiculous hitting through the arrival of Botts and Hairston and departure of Nevin. Ride him while he's hot, drop him when he cools.

Posted by Lucas at 01:22 AM

May 25, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Kinsler Returns
Second Baseman Ian Kinsler rejoined the Rangers Thursday night after spending six weeks on the DL with a dislocated thumb. Kinsler will start most of the time. He hit ridiculously well before his injury (.476/.577/.714) and AL-only owners were smart to keep him, but don’t be surprised if he returns a little slowly. First, nobody hits .476 consistently, and second, a dislocated thumb doesn’t promote strong hitting. His owners in mixed leagues, particularly smaller ones, ought to keep him benched for a little while. I’ve said it for years: true rookie hitters almost never make for worthwhile fantasy players (in mixed leagues).

The displaced Mark DeRosa will spot for Kinsler and also sub for others on occasion, thus keeping his bat in the lineup and his value in AL-only leagues mostly intact. Derosa subbed for Brad Wilkerson Thursday. Derosa hits lefties particularly well and should continue to start against most of them.

Nevin’s Slump Halted
DH Phil Nevin didn’t make a single out on Tuesday or Wednesday. Nor did he play. Texas recalled DH Jason Botts from AAA and started him on consecutive days. Botts batted .318/.373/.615 for Oklahoma and began his MLB 2006 two-for-six with a double and two walks. For the short term, he should start most games against righties and sit against lefties. He’s a must-own in AL-only leagues. Since he won’t play every game and has minimal Major League experience, his value in mixed league is light. Botts can also play outfield, though it’s not a pretty sight. Botts has batted eighth, with Hank Blalock, Kevin Mench, Brad Wilkerson and Mark Derosa shifting up one slot.

His long term depends on his performance and that of Phil Nevin, whose line against righties has plummeted to .202/.303/.363. Nevin does have 22 RBI against righties, but so would any other Ranger hitter given the opportunity to bat cleanup every night. Nevin will continue to hit lefties, where his line of .314/.400/.571 will continue to help in AL-only leagues if his owners check the schedule and bench him against righties.

Michael Young Is Terrible
Shortstop Michael Young has only two homers this season. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest you keep him. Young isn’t hitting the ball quite as far as normal but is batting .332 and on pace for over 90 runs, over 100 RBI, and about ten steals.

Closering
Francisco Cordero’s loss against the Angels Tuesday killed whatever miniscule chance he had of reclaiming the closer role in the near future. I’ve retained him in a 20-team mixed league; I still expect quality middle relief and an occasional vultured win, if not any more saves. Those in small mixed leagues should have Cordero ready to drop in case another team coronates a new closer who’s in the free-agent pool. Having said that, dropping Cordero for someone like Elmer Dessens makes me pretty queasy. Your mileage may vary.

Pitchers
John Rheinecker has replaced Robinson Tejeda in the rotation at least temporarily and will start on Sunday against Oakland. He’s pitched respectably in AAA – 3.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, seven strikeouts per nine innings – but doesn’t come recommended except in larger AL-only leagues.

Kevin Millwood’s ownership percentage in mixed leagues has been gyrating wildly depending on the results of his most recent start. Thursday night he was lit up, and doubtlessly he’ll hit a bunch of waiver wires again. Potential owners shouldn’t bother trying to time the market. He’ll win plenty of games, strike out a pleasant number of batters, and provide an average WHIP and substandard ERA. If that helps your team, grab him. If not, don’t. He’s useful in mixed leagues of twelve or more teams, borderline in ten-team leagues, and inferior elsewhere.

Posted by Lucas at 11:39 PM

May 18, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

No Change At Closer
On Tuesday, Akinori Otsuka blew the first of his six save opportunities since taking over for Francisco Cordero. Otsuka has pitched well since the promotion: 8.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3 strikeouts. Despite Tuesday’s heartbreaker against the Yankees, Texas has no intention of reverting him to setup duty in the near term. In eight innings since his demotion, Cordero has a 3.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and eight strikeouts. I’d retain him in any league format, though owners in smaller mixed leagues should consider dropping him when someone interesting hits the waiver wire. He may yet regain his closer status, and if not, he’ll still provide some value.

What’s On Second?
2B Ian Kinsler is making contact in his AAA rehab assignment (three strikeouts in nineteen appearances) but isn’t doing anything with it (.118/.211/.176). He may rejoin the active roster as soon as Saturday, whereupon he’ll share time with white-hot Mark DeRosa. DeRosa is batting .418 with eleven runs, two homers and seven RBI in May as Kinsler’s replacement. Since he normally doesn’t hit righties well, he should cool off and eventually cede at-bats to Kinsler. However, if the Rangers maintain their division run and Kinsler struggles, they may stick with DeRosa’s veteran presence, gritty play and all-around derring-do. In other words, the situation is fluid. Kinsler might help in larger mixed leagues but not as a part-timer.

Rotation and Matchups
Ranger rotation members have performed to mixed reviews during this ten-game road trip through Boston, New York and Houston. As you may recall, I advised benching the entire rotation in mixed leagues and considering it in AL-only formats. Kevin Millwood atoned for his disastrous nine runs allowed against the Twins by holding New York to two runs and striking out six. He takes the mound Saturday game against Houston and is the only pitcher worth starting through the weekend. Don’t bother with flyball-prone Robinson Tejeda, who draws Minute Maid Park and Roy Oswalt on Friday. Likewise, most owners should bench John Koronka on Sunday. The Juicebox makes life unpleasant for left-handed pitchers. After this weekend, Texas encounters the light offensive squads of Oakland, Los Angeles and Seattle, Start everyone as you normally would.

Tex and Nevin
Mark Teixeira will be fine. His slow start insures he won’t approach last year’s numbers, but what matters is not his recent past but the rate at which he produces henceforth. I expect glad tidings from him. Phil Nevin’s .242-with-homers will suffice in fantasy ball, if not the real world. Texas will keep Nevin in the lineup and cleanup spot long past his sell-by date, but if they do eventually reduce his role, they’ll call up Jason Botts, not Erubiel Durazo, who could and did request his release from AAA Oklahoma. Rod Barajas and his dreary .225/.282/.333 aren’t going anywhere.

Posted by Lucas at 10:21 AM

May 12, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Fear Is A Man’s Best Friend
On Friday evening, Texas embarks on a ten-game road trip through Boston, New York and Houston. That spells trouble for Ranger starting pitchers and anyone owning them. In all but the largest of mixed leagues, any Ranger starter is marginal. Consider benching them during the next week-and-a-half. Even in AL-only leagues they’re high-risk plays right now.

Kevin Millwood had a career-worst start against Minnesota that by itself will account for 0.40 of ERA by season’s end. A one-inning, nine-run outing is a soul destroyer but doesn’t change his outlook. I’m holding to my preseason prediction of a 4.55 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts. He’ll get his share of wins. If statistics like that are an asset in your mixed league, enjoy.

Vicente Padilla is pitching to expectations except for an improved strikeout rate. On several occasions he’s started superbly, only to self-immolate in one of the middle innings. Until he improves his control, he could benefit from a quicker hook from Buck Showalter.

Like Millwood, Kameron Loe alternates between brilliance and inaptness. Unfortunately, he won’t offer the strikeouts that can somewhat mitigate and otherwise rough performance. Loe has yet to whiff over three in a start.

John Koronka motors away. He struggled against Cleveland near the end of April as I expected, but since then he had dominated Baltimore and pitched respectably against Minnesota. Obviously, he demands ownership in AL-only leagues, though my caution about the road trip applies. In mixed leagues, he might merit a spot start against the next weak offense he faces. I can’t countenance him maintaining a sub-4.00 ERA.

Texas optioned would-be fifth starter Robinson Tejeda and probably will alternate between him and John Rheinecker in that role as the need arises. Don’t be tempted by either on this road trip.

Hitters
Phil Nevin is batting .129/.227/.154 in May after his torrid April. Though in no imminent danger of losing his job or even his valuable cleanup spot in the order, he has to be concerning his owners. Nevin’s problem isn’t his recent slump as much as his five-year-long inability to hit right-handed pitchers. Thus, he must kill lefties in order to maintain overall usefulness. Active owners should consider benching him against tough righties to maximize his value. Should Texas have to call in a replacement, alternatives include Erubiel Durazo (soon to return from a minor leg injury) and Jason Botts.

Likewise, Rod Barajas and his .207 batting average aren’t disappearing from the box scores any time soon. He’ll continue to start two of every three games. If he can’t resume hitting his normal .250 with decent power, Gerald Laird will see more playing time… but not until at least June.

2B Ian Kinsler began a rehab assignment and could join the active roster during the next week. He won’t return to an everyday role yet, instead sharing time with recently hot Mark DeRosa. That’s understandable given the severity of Kinsler’s injury, but the nagging worry is Buck Showalter’s deep and abiding love of DeRosa, a fine bench player who just doesn’t deserve daily play. Kinsler owners can't count on him as an automatic starter for the indefinite future.

Ephemera
Texas recently acquired outfielder Freddy Guzman from San Diego for a couple of minor leaguers. The Rangers will send him to AAA initially but may ask him to replace backup outfielder Adrian Brown before long. Guzman has decent on-base skills, zero power, and ferocious speed: 166 steals versus 30 caught in 249 minor-league games. Guzman might provide a little help in AL-only leagues if a Ranger starting outfielder suffers an injury. Keep his name if the back of your head. A true center fielder by trade, Guzman’s arrival would appear to dump water on the smoking embers of Laynce Nix’s fantasy value.

Posted by Lucas at 07:31 PM

May 02, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

A Change At The End
Not since 2002 have the Rangers demoted their closer. Back then I held the grim task of advising whether fantasy owners should acquire John Rocker or Hideki Irabu. Today, the issues are the firmness of Akinori Otsuka’s grip on the closer role and whether Francisco Cordero can or will reacquire it.

Is Cordero injured? Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus thinks so. I honestly don’t know. I see a guy still lighting up the radar gun and regularly throwing breaking pitches (too regularly, in fact). Of course, if an injury is eliminating some slider-bite or a quarter-inch of late movement on his fastball, that’s just as damaging as any loss in velocity. To my untrained eyes, Cordero’s problems seem more of pitch location and confidence.

In theory, Otsuka has the job only temporarily while Cordero regains his confidence or whatever else he’s lost. On the other hand, it’s hard to envision Buck Showalter reinstating Cordero before Otsuka blows a save or two. I do expect Cordero to regain closer status during the season, but not in the immediate future.

Owners in AL-only leagues clearly must retain Cordero. Though it’s depressing for his owners to contemplate, Cordero can still provide value as a middle reliever. Owners in mixed leagues should also hold firm. Cordero has a reasonable chance to recover his dominance and status. Keeping him on the bench or as a plain vanilla reliever won’t hurt in the short run unless a there’s 24-carat gold on the waiver wire.

Rotation
Robinson Tejeda will make his AL debut Tuesday night. As I mentioned a month ago when Texas acquired him, Tejeda did not pitch nearly as well as his 2005 ERA of 3.57 would indicate. He walked 5.3 per nine innings and permitted only five homers despite a worrisome ground-fly ratio of 0.81. Not to say that he absolutely won’t offer support to AL-only owners, but pretend he posted a 4.57 ERA and set expectations from there. Worse still, after the Rays he’ll face the Yankees in Arlington followed by Boston and the Yankees again on the road.

At Second
Mark Derosa returned from the DL and will get the majority of starts at second base while Ian Kinsler heals his bum thumb. Derosa has modest, short-term value in AL-only leagues. Former fill-in D’Angelo Jimenez has minimal value even in large AL-only leagues, while recent call-up Drew Meyer has none. Kinsler won’t return before the middle of the month. Keep him DL’ed in AL-only leagues. In mixed leagues, if he’s occupying your DL spot and your bench is healthy, there’s no harm in keeping him. If, however, you also have a worthwhile but injured player clogging a bench spot, you certainly should drop Kinsler. Even the healthiest of rookies rarely make for quality fantasy players, much less those coming off severe hand injuries.

Posted by Lucas at 05:47 PM

April 25, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Patience Rewarded
After ten games, Kevin Mench had a sore toe, zero homers and zero runs batted in. Ten days later, Mench has a new pair of shoes, four homers and fourteen RBI. Unfortunately, more than one-half of his mixed-league owners had decided to cut bait just as he began to wallop the ball. Such is the price of compacting a player’s potential into two weeks of box scores. Certainly, each fantasy league’s winner will have made tough evaluations and bold moves in the early days of the season, but the keys are patience and thoughtfulness. If a player is struggling, his owner shouldn’t consider whether a potential replacement will outhit or outpitch him for the rest of the season, not just next week. That seems obvious, but watching your #7 pick offer yet another zero-for-four can test your resolve. Always take a couple of deep breaths before making a roster move with only modest upside.

Patience Revisited
Francisco Cordero partially absolved his previous sins by getting an easy, quiet save against Seattle one night after his low point as a reliever. Over the weekend, he promptly committed the mortal sin of blowing a three-run lead in the ninth against the Devil Rays. Cordero had never before entered a game up by three and lost the lead. Nevertheless, Cordero will get as much slack as possible to correct himself. He did have shoulder problems in the spring but his arm and velocity seem fine. I’d suggest Akinori Otsuka would be a 2:1 favorite to get some save opportunities if Cordero loses his job. Antonio Alfonseca is a 2:1 underdog.

Pitching
Kevin Millwood’s ownership percentage in mixed leagues sits at 66.7%, which feels just about right. Millwood doesn’t have much value in smaller leagues. He pulled his ERA down to 4.20 with a rough but fairly run-free performance, and for the second consecutive start the bullpen coughed up his lead. For fantasy purposes, he’s Kenny Rogers with more strikeouts. Kameron Loe allowed six flu-ridden runs against Tampa Bay Friday and sickened a portion of his owners in the process. Loe is a decent pitcher but shouldn’t do more than tread water in ERA and WHIP. Add his K rate of four per nine innings, and what does he really offer? Mostly wins; he has none at the moment although he’s pitched well enough to win twice. Wins are awfully fickle, so when a pitcher’s most valuable fantasy attribute is wins, his value is pretty dubious.

John Koronka: Mr. Popularity?
A Ranger pitcher – a rotation member – is the most added player in ESPN’s AL-only league. On the heels of his eight inning, eight strikeout performance on Sunday, Koronka dropped his ERA to 3.75 and his WHIP to 1.17. Nice story, but I think his new owners should exercise extreme caution. In 550 innings spread among AA and AAA, Koronka has an ERA of 4.39, a WHIP of 1.49, and 3.7 walks and 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Which is to say, he hasn’t exactly dominated the minors. He’ll start next against a Cleveland squad averaging six runs per game. I understand the land rush on any pitcher who shows a glimpse of usefulness, but don’t expect much from him.

The Rest
If you really want to test your patience, keep holding on to Brad Wilkerson. I still think he’ll contribute fantasy value in mixed leagues. --- As mentioned last week, Gerald Laird won’t start more than once per series in the short term, but owners in AL-only leagues should keep an eye on him in case Rod Barajas’s season-long slump doesn’t abate. Laird belted seventeen homers in 75 AAA games last year. – Newcomer Drew Meyer started two consecutive games at second in place of D’Angelo Jimenez. Jimenez should get most of the starts and provide a stopgap in AL-only leagues.

Posted by Lucas at 11:55 PM

April 17, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Ownership Society

A look at ownership percentages of Ranger hitters in ESPN’s mixed and AL-only leagues, plus a word on the closer situation:

BRAD WILKERSON (72% mixed / 99% AL)
Wilkerson has endured an atrocious start and a demotion to the seventh spot in the batting order. I’ve written about his surplus of 0-2 counts and struggles with his few good counts here. Though he’s at .185/.214/.315, I wouldn’t drop him in any league yet. At least wait for some improvement against the weak staffs of Seattle and Tampa Bay. The drop in the order will cost several runs but could help his RBI.

KEVIN MENCH (48% mixed / 100% AL)
Mench missed several games with a sore toe but returned on Sunday. He has one run and no RBI in nine games. Except in small mixed leagues, I expect most owners will regret dropping him. He might be available in yours. Give him a chance.

GARY MATTHEWS (1% mixed / 92% AL)
Buck Showalter has handed Matthews the center field and leadoff positions in favor of Laynce Nix and Wilkerson, respectively. Matthews is nothing special but will provide decent returns to any AL-only league. He might offer a spurt that gives the appearance of usefulness in mixed leagues, but remember that his career bests are a .276 average, 72 runs, 17 homers and 55 RBI.

LAYNCE NIX (0% mixed / 55% AL)
On April 2nd I suggested Nix was worth a flyer in AL-only leagues. Now, not. Drop him.

D’ANGELO JIMENEZ (0% mixed / 76% AL)
Jimenez was expected to be the wrong end of a temporary platoon with Mark Derosa while Ian Kinsler healed. Derosa’s own problems have forced Jimenez into an everyday role. He can provide modest short-term value in AL-only leagues. His shelf-life is short.

IAN KINSLER (43% mixed / 100% AL)
The ESPNers have this right. Despite his fantastic start, I don’t expect Kinsler to be a worthwhile fantasy player in most mixed leagues. Very few rookie hitters are. Still, AL-only owners should hold on. Kinsler is why you have an extra DL slot. If you also own Coco Crisp, tough it out.

MARK DEROSA (0% mixed / 14% AL)
Derosa’s persistent ankle troubles have prevented him from starting in place of Kinsler or getting outfield at-bats against lefties, against whom he hits quite well. Texas might have to DL him. He’ll have very modest value in AL-only leagues upon his return, probably as a starter against many lefties.

GERALD LAIRD (0% mixed / 14% AL)
Laird has caught three of the last seven games after watching the first six. It’s possible that if he continues to hit well and Rod Barajas continues to falter, Laird could usurp the majority position. For the short and medium term, however, don’t expect Laird to catch more than one game each series. If you’re grumbling about your current catcher, keep one eye on Laird.

CLOSERING
Francisco Cordero hasn’t pitched well, blowing one save and terrifying teammates and fans in two other appearances. The concern is whether a sore shoulder that truncated his spring is legitimately affecting his pitching. I don’t know, but I think it’s unlikely. He’s still lighting up the radar gun, and he also missed much of last spring to minimal effect. More likely is that just slumping. Cordero has always struggled with control, steadily walking about four per nine innings during the last three years. Times of exceptionally bad control lead to bad results, thus, his current situation. If in fact the worst comes true, Akinori Otsuka should get the save opportunities, though Antonio Alfonseca has an outside shot.

Posted by Lucas at 11:25 PM

April 11, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

The Texas offense hasn't played well thus far, scoring only 29 runs in eight games. The killer has been the Rangers' .194 on-base percentage leading off an inning. They have zero leadoff walks.

Still, most of the guys expected to deliver fantasy production have done so. Michael Young is batting .294 with four runs and six RBI. Mark Teixeira has yet to homer but is hitting .385 with four runs and four RBI. Hank Blalock has a homer and a .300 average. You expect as much from them. Now to the men who've exceeded or trailed expectations.

OF Brad Wilkerson is 6-for-36 with one walk and sixteen strikeouts, and the stats don’t fib. He looks lost at the plate right now, taking belt-high pitches for strike two, then flailing at a 59-foot breaking pitch and trudging to the dugout. He does have five runs, three RBI, a homer and a steal, so he's really only punishing his owners in one category right now. Buck Showalter has expressed patience and no intention to drop him from the leadoff spot. Wilkerson owners should likewise be patient.

OF Laynce Nix longs for Wilkerson's line. Nix is zero-for-18 with no walks and seven strikeouts to start the season. Unlike Wilkerson, Nix risks far more than a drop in the order if he sputters. Already a benchwarmer against lefties, he might find himself in Oklahoma when Gary Matthews comes of the Disabled List, though the original plan calls for him and Matthews to share center field duties. This is pure speculation on my part; I've witnessed no rumors in the local media. Be prepared to grab Matthews in AL-only leagues if you need an outfielder. Matthews won't win your league title but can be a useful role player.

Showalter looks to start Rod Barajas more often than I expected, but Barajas has responded with a .160 average, three runs, a homer, and two RBI. Again, not terrible except for the average. Poor Gerald Laird has one start in eight games and won't help anyone in any league for now.

Kevin Mench left his bat in Arizona: .258 with one run, no dingers and no runs batted in. Also, no reason to drop him unless you’re in an eight-team mixed league with a heavily stocked free-agent pool.

On the flip side, DH Phil Nevin has allayed worries that he was cooked. His two homers and eight RBI lead the team. He won't win the MVP, but he's worth grabbing in the handful of mixed leagues where he’s available. True rookie Ian Kinsler is off to a righteous start: .450/.560/.700, four runs, a homer and two RBI. He's not a swing-at-everything poseur either, as his four walks and only two strikeouts attest. I'll reiterate that most rookies make for lousy fantasy players, but if you're hurting for middle-infield production in a mixed league you can try to ride his hot streak.

Kevin Millwood has pitched better than his 7.36 ERA would indicate, though it's faint consolation to his owners. In each of his two starts, one bad inning and a few bad pitches have ruined him. This isn't "Chan Ho, The Sequel." Still, I never thought much of him in smaller mixed leagues. Larger mixed-league owners (that's larger leagues, not larger owners) should hold steady, and AL-only owners would be foolish to drop him.

I still wouldn't bother with Vicente Padilla or Kameron Loe in all but the largest of mixed leagues. Padilla didn't impress despite getting the win in Sunday’s effort, and Loe is probably the kind of pitcher who'll help Texas more than your fantasy team. You probably don't know the back end of the Ranger rotation. In this case, ignorance really is bliss.

Posted by Lucas at 12:38 AM

April 02, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Texas made three trades over the last three days. Their impact on the Rangers’ fantasy prospects is described below:

DAVID DELLUCCI
Dellucci’s trade to Philadelphia makes him an unperson in AL-only leagues. He also loses his value in mixed leagues because Philly doesn’t need a DH and Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu don’t need a substitute. He’s a back-ender in larger NL-only leagues.

PHIL NEVIN
Nevin lost his only two competitors to the DH at-bats in the last week. As I mentioned a few days ago, I don’t expect greatness, but he could bat .260 with 20-plus homers and 80-plus RBI as the cleanup hitter. Worth a shot in all but the smallest of mixed leagues. If Nevin collapses, keep an eye out for Jason Botts, who will begin 2006 in AAA.

BRAD WILKERSON
His owners can breathe easier. Wilkerson rebounded well from last week’s shoulder malady, and a move from center to left could help his stamina. A must-own in any 5x5 league.

LAYNCE NIX / GARY MATTHEWS
Only last week, Nix seemed bound for AAA and fifth on the outfield depth chart. With Dellucci’s departure and Matthews’s placement on the Disabled List, Nix will start Monday in center field. Nix has a dubious resume but has struggled with shoulder problems during the last two years. Now fully healed, he might show improvement. He’s worth a flyer in AL-only leagues. Matthews will start against lefties and sub for the corner outfielders upon his return. He doesn’t provide much value right now, but if someone suffers an injury or Nix falters, he’ll become a tolerable AL-only outfielder.

ADAM EATON
Eaton will miss at least two months because of impending surgery on the middle finger of his throwing hand. He had no value in mixed leagues anyway, and his marginal value in AL-only leagues just cratered. Stash him on your DL if no absolutely have no other options.

ROBINSON TEJEDA
Tejeda posted a 3.57 ERA as a rookie in Philly but got away with 5.3 walks per nine innings and a .260 average on batters in play. His fly-prone tendencies translate badly to Arlington. Tejeda just turned 24 and may yet develop into a solid MLB pitcher, but I doubt he’ll offer much to fantasy owners in 2006. I project a 4.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP as a Ranger. His upside is in wins and strikeouts. I wouldn’t bother with him except in very large AL-only leagues.

JOHN KORONKA
Koronka, not Tejeda, will start the Rangers’ fifth game of the season. His minor-league stats do not impress, and I wouldn’t expect any more of him than of John Wasdin. No value anywhere.

JUAN DOMINGUEZ
Currently, Oakland needs Dominguez for its rotation like a mule needs a spinning wheel. Dominguez might appear in relief later in the season. No value anywhere right now.

ANTONIO ALFONSECA
You might remember him as a closer, but those days are over. He’ll attempt to provide league-average middle relief in Arlington and is no higher than third in line to get any saves. Don’t bother.

Posted by Lucas at 04:13 PM

March 29, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Brad Wilkerson's MRI came back negative, but like last year he may have to play through pain much of the season. Erase the "something special" potential I'd projected last week. Fellow outfielder Gary Matthews will start the season on the DL, and Laynce Nix will be the fourth outfielder. Neither has any value except in very large AL-only leagues. Texas released Erubiel Durazo and optioned Jason Botts, leaving Phil Nevin alone as the DH. I discuss him below.

Adam Eaton will start the season on the DL with a strained finger tendon. He had little value anyway. His absence makes R.A. Dickey the fourth starter, followed by... Juan Dominguez? A trade acquisition? Gaylord Perry? Just avoid Dickey and the fill-in fifth starter, whoever it is..

Last of the Predictions

Phil Nevin
.261/.324/.445, 52 runs, 16 homers, 67 RBI, 2 steals

Nevin could be the Comeback Player of the Year or the 2006 version of "Dead Bat Dick" Hidalgo. The above statistics are an ugly average of the two. He hit 26 homers with 105 RBI just two years ago, but he also collapsed prior to last year's midseason trade (.256/.301/.399). Nevin should start the season batting cleanup for Texas, about as choice a location as exists in fantasy baseball, so he has the opportunity to be the steal of the draft. Larger mixed-league owners could pick him in the last round, and he merits a late-middle round pick in most AL-only leagues. I don't expect greatest, but he’s worth a flyer.

Kevin Millwood
12 wins, 4.55 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 145 Ks, 195 innings

Like Kenny Rogers, Millwood has the mental toughness to succeed in the hot, windy climate of midsummer Arlington. Unfortunately, that by itself won't make him a top-tier fantasy pitcher, and my view of Millwood is on the pessimistic side. Last year's AL ERA champ is moving from a pitcher-friendly park to a decidedly pitcher-angry one. He also held opponents to a .195 average with runners in scoring position, a feat unlikely to reoccur. He won't have much value in ten-team mixed leagues.

Adam Eaton
10 wins, 4.90 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 130 Ks, 170 innings

Eaton left Wednesday's Spring Training game in the second inning with a strained tendon in his finger. A torn tendon sheath in the same finger limited him to only 128 innings last year. Healthy or no, Eaton has a career ERA of 4.34 in the best pitching environment in the National League. You don't need a computer or even an abacus to understand how his flyball tendencies should translate to the AL and Arlington. Assuming his injury is short-lived, his wins and strikeouts can help AL-only owners, and he is pitching for his next contract. Still, given his uncertain present situation, I'd just avoid him.

Vicente Padilla
9 wins, 5.05 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 100 Ks, 170 innings

Padilla pitched quite well for Philadelphia in 2002-2003, but injuries wrecked his most recent two years. Like Eaton (well, like just about anyone), Padilla's statistics don't translate well to Arlington. He's worth following in AL-only leagues case he shows evidence of recapturing his '02-'03 form.

Kameron Loe
10 wins, 4.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 95 Ks, 170 innings

In 2005, Loe was a more effective version of Ryan Drese, striking out few batters but inducing a million ground balls. He has a career minor-league strikeout rate of eight per nine innings, so perhaps he can improve on the 4.4 per nine he offered last year. Again, worth a late-round shot in AL-only leagues. Loe has never surpassed 163 innings in a season.

Fifth Starter

No. Just no.

Francisco Cordero
5 wins, 40 saves, 3.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 75 Ks, 66 innings.

Part of a large second tier of closers. Not an elite like Rivera or Lidge but a safer pick than Wickman or Jenks. Cordero is a low risk in terms of ability and potential for losing his job.

Posted by Lucas at 06:14 PM

March 20, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Projections for Blalock, Kinsler, Wilkerson, Mench, Dellucci

HANK BLALOCK
277/.340/.485, 90 runs, 29 homers, 95 RBI, 3 steals

In 2005, Blalock endured a second-half slump, didn’t hit lefties and didn’t hit on the road. That’s nothing new. What is new is that he didn’t had the ferocious first-half that made his overall stats so valuable in previous years. He’s still just 25, and I expect a partial return to form in 2006. He should be a solid third baseman, if not an elite one. Texas might rest him occasionally, particularly against lefties, but he is impervious to injury and will amass at least 150 games. If you draft Blalock, put out trade feelers if he starts the season hot.

IAN KINSLER
.254/.305/.405, 65 runs, 13 homers, 60 RBI, 10 steals

Alfonso Soriano’s replacement has batted well enough in Spring Training to secure the second base job. He batted .274/.348/.464 in AAA last season. Kinsler might have a fantasy-worthy season, but he doesn’t merit selection in any of ESPN’s mixed leagues. Rookies almost never make capable fantasy players, and a slow start could cost him at-bats to Mark DeRosa or even a demotion to AAA. That’s not a risk worth taking. Even with the depressingly thin field of 2Bs in AL-only leagues, he justifies only a late-round pick.

BRAD WILKERSON
.254/.360/.465, 105 runs, 23 homers, 70 RBI, 10 steals

Though I base my projections on a self-designed spreadsheet that serves me well, I wonder if Wilkerson could really do something special this season. He won’t hit for average, even in Arlington, but the short right-field porch could prop his homer total well above the 23 I’ve projected. He probably will bat first, and the leadoff position for Texas is some prime real estate. He achieved 660 plate appearances last season despite a litany of minor injuries. Wilkerson doesn’t rank among the top 200 players drafted in ESPN’s mixed leagues, but he should, and his owners should be pleased with him by season’s end.

KEVIN MENCH
.285/.345/.505, 75 runs, 27 homers, 75 RBI, 3 steals

Mench has yet to provide the breakout season that would make him a fantasy star. He tantalizes with his power, but he always seems to be fighting through an injury or losing at-bats to guys like Gary Matthews. Last year, he batted a dire .185 with runners in scoring position. That’s actually good news for you, his potential owner, because your rivals will probably downgrade him on the basis of a fluky performance that is highly unlikely to reoccur. As with Wilkerson, I see more upside than downside in the stats projected above. Mench should be a solid if unspectacular mixed-league outfielder..

DAVID DELLUCCI
.246/.355/.465, 85 runs, 23 homers, 65 RBI, 5 steals

Last year, Dellucci rode a near-Bondsian walk rate and unexpected power to a career season at age 31. Much of his offensive value comes in walks, so he contributes less to a 5x5 fantasy team than in real life. Also, he tends to wear down and never starts against lefties, so he’s not worth drafting in all but the largest of mixed leagues. In AL-only leagues, Dellucci can be an especially valuable addition to an active owner who pays attention to Texas’s opposing pitchers.

Posted by Lucas at 11:54 PM

March 09, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

The Easy Projections

1B MARK TEIXEIRA
.295/.375/.575, 110 runs, 45 homers, 135 RBI, 4 steals

Teixeira has rocketed from decent fantasy first baseman to top-ten pick in two short years. ESPN ranks him fourth overall and I don’t disagree. He’s 26 and batting third for a good offense in a very offense-friendly park. He might not miss a game if the Rangers are competitive. Teixeira doesn’t homer often versus lefties and struggles on the road, but these are minor quibbles. Don’t worry about a slow start; he has a career .240 average and .449 slugging percentage in April. His slugging never dips below .517 in any other month.

SS MICHAEL YOUNG
.305/.355/.485, 115 runs, 23 homers, 95 RBI, 8 steals

Not long ago, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra reigned supreme over the world of both real-life and fantasy shortstops. Today, only Jeter even plays short anymore and he ranks behind Miguel Tejada and Texas’s Michael Young. For five years he’s surpassed (my) expectations and now he hangs on the fringe of fantasy’s top twenty players. He can’t exceed last year’s line of .331-114-24-91-5, can he? This time, I think not. Nevertheless, a lower but 300+ average combined with similar stats in all other categories should keep owners happy. The gap between Young and Tejeda is not large, and Young might finish with a better overall line. Like Teixeira, Young plays darn near every game.

More projections coming soon.

The Paradox Of Spring Training
Fifty at-bats against scattershot pitching or ten innings against organizational fodder is a terrible way to earn or lose a job, but that’s how Spring Training works. Within this framework, the fantasy owner must discern between worthwhile and pointless information. Worthwhile are reports on player health and job status. Unless you’re a hyper-dedicated owner sophisticated enough to formulate Plan B and Plan C, you should avoid players with troublesome histories and downgrade those who develop potentially nagging injuries in Spring Traning (think wrists, obliques, hamstrings, groins). Competing owners will pick these players before you and pay the price.

Conversely, spring statistics don’t matter. Of course they matter to players and management. If Ian Kinsler doesn’t hit (he is), he could end up repeating in Oklahoma (he won’t). However, prospective owners shouldn’t draft him over Marcus Giles if he bats .550 with eight homers in Arizona. Better to dig up his age and last year’s AAA stats to learn his capabilities over a full season. In this case I’ll just tell you: as a 23-year-old he batted .274/.348/.464 with 23 homers and 19 steals.

Posted by Lucas at 02:20 AM

February 08, 2006

ESPN Fantasy Column

Greetings
I’m Scott Lucas, and since 2002 I’ve been ESPN’s fantasy correspondent for the Texas Rangers. It’s a sweet gig: paid junkets to Bristol, fine tequila delivered to my front door, groupies who dab my forehead with a cool, slightly damp washcloth while I write. 2006 promises an interesting season for Ranger fans and fantasy owners, as new GM Jon Daniels has upended the roster this winter after the team failed to capitalize on 2004’s surprising 89 wins. I’ll offer player projections in the coming weeks as Spring Training unfolds, but for now, answers to a few questions:

How will Kevin Millwood do?
I’m startled at how poorly my trusty computer thinks of Kevin Millwood. Right now it suggests a 4.59 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, drastic declines from last year’s numbers of 2.86 and 1.22. Why so glum, computer? First, his home last year, Cleveland’s Jacobs Field, rivaled Safeco Field for pitcher-friendliness. Millwood can expect to surrender more homers, more doubles, and more hits on balls in play in The Ballpark. Second, his peripheral stats suggest a 2005 ERA of about 3.40 instead of his league-leading 2.86. Third, his previous two seasons in Philadelphia were rather pedestrian and occasionally marred by injury. My computer would do a spit take if it knew his salary.

On the other hand, some pitchers (like Kenny Rogers) have the ability to shrug off the centerfield-bound jet stream that turns The Ballpark into Gameboy Backyard Baseball during the summer months. Millwood has pitched well in the ultimate hostile environment of Coors Field (3.97 ERA in seven starts), so there’s evidence to suggest that pitching in Texas won’t faze him. Millwood does have a decent strikeout rate and should garner a fair number of wins, so he could help some fantasy teams despite a mediocre ERA. Just don’t think of him as an elite fantasy pitcher, even in AL-only leagues.

Could Eaton or Padilla help?
Adam Eaton and Vicente Padilla might help Texas, but they probably won’t help you. Eaton has a career ERA of 4.34 while pitching in perhaps the most favorable environment in all of baseball. I think he’d do well to post a sub-5.00 ERA in Arlington. The same applies to Padilla, who has battled arm troubles the last two years. He did pitch well in 2002 and 2003, and perhaps some health will foster an improved performance. However, based on two consecutive mediocre seasons and a move to Texas, he’s tough to recommend.

Where will Brad Wilkerson bat, and how will he perform?
Wilkerson might lead off if manager Buck Showalter isn’t too enamoured with David Dellucci. If not, he’ll probably bat fifth or sixth. Batting sixth instead of first would cost him about eighty plate appearances, not an insignificant number, though he would receive juicier RBI opportunities. Even if he doesn’t hit first, a healthier body and a move from RFK to Arlington should produce improved fantasy numbers. Keep him in mind.

Who’s on second?
The trade of Alfonso Soriano, error-prone and occasionally lackadaisical though he was, left a gaping hole at second base. The leading candidate to fill his shoes is Ian Kinsler, a 23-year-old who batted .274/.348/.464 with 102 runs, 23 homers, 94 RBI and 19 steals for AAA Oklahoma last year. Nothing would please Texas more than for him to command the position, because the alternatives are Mark DeRosa, whose hot September of 2005 masks a very ordinary bat, and D’angelo Jimenez, who couldn’t even maintain his 40-man roster spot with the Reds last year.

Posted by Lucas at 02:18 PM

September 28, 2005

ESPN Column

Advice For The Final Week
Texas finishes the season with three games in Seattle and three against Los Angeles in Texas. Seattle has a weak offense, and LA probably will have clinched the division and be resting its regulars to the extent possible, so Ranger pitchers gain a little value this week.

KAMERON LOE starts Tuesday and might start the final game of the season. Loe hasn’t struck out many batters as a starter but otherwise has performed well and seems no worse for wear after his beaning last week. He’s a definite start in AL-only leagues. CHRIS YOUNG gets one last start Wednesday. He returned from a two-week dead-arm layoff last Thursday and threw passably. I’d use him if I needed some help but not if I were protecting a lead. KENNY ROGERS takes the mound Thursday and can be started in just about any fantasy league.

R.A. DICKEY begins the final series with LA. Dickey is learning how to throw a knuckleball and is not the kind of guy you want on your team in September. JUAN DOMINGUEZ will start on Saturday. Dominguez has a 3.45 ERA and six Ks per nine innings as a starter, yet he’s owned in only 48% of AL-only leagues. Not only can he help AL-only squads, he might be worth a high-risk play in mixed leagues. The final start will probably go to Loe or JOSH RUPE. Rupe showed promise in his last start, but it’s also his only Major League start. Only the absolutely desperate should consider him.

DAVID DELLUCCI has missed several games with a strained calf but is expected back Tuesday night. He’ll continue to start against righties and sit against lefties, as will DH ADRIAN GONZALEZ. Keep an eye on Dellucci; if he misses another game you should consider a replacement. After sharing the backstop equally with GERALD LAIRD for a week or so, ROD BARAJAS has caught seven of the last ten games. I think he’ll start three or four of the last six, with Laird getting the rest. KEVIN MENCH missed Sunday’s game with a sore thumb but should start most of the remaining games. The four famous infielders should start most, if not all, of the final six games. Texas might let Marshall McDougall or Esteban German spell one of them for a day or two. No reason to bench any of them, though.

I’d Like To Thank The Academy
Thus concludes my fourth year of covering the Rangers. Thanks to ESPN’s Eric Karabell for drawing my name out of the hat in February 2002 and giving me an opportunity to write about Hideki Irabu and John Rocker (both Rangers at the time, unfortunately). Thanks also to Courtney Bissonnet, who, against all logic and common sense, decided to marry someone who writes about baseball in his spare time.

Posted by Lucas at 12:16 AM

September 13, 2005

ESPN Column

Seven’s A Crowd
After Wednesday, Texas finishes the season inside the AL West with seven games against Seattle, six against LA and three against Oakland. None of these teams has an above-average offense (relative to their home parks) and none plays in a hitter-friendly stadium (The Ballpark is very hitter-friendly, of course). So, the matter at hand is who the heck is in the rotation. CHRIS YOUNG left his last start after just one inning in which he topped out at about 85 mph. He’s not injured as far as anyone knows, but Texas didn’t want to risk disaster, and they may shut him down for the duration. Certainly, he no longer belongs in an ESPN mixed league, and those in AL-only leagues need to find help where they can.

KENNY ROGERS will continue to start and ought to provide adequate if uninspiring support in AL-only leagues and larger mixed leagues. KAMERON LOE finally took a beating after three excellent starts. Loe’s performance as a starter is oddly reminiscent of the departed Ryan Drese: very few strikeouts and an exceptionally low (lucky?) hit rate on balls in play. JUAN DOMINGUEZ likewise faltered after three consecutive strong outings. He does have the stuff to get more strikeouts, though the results haven’t shown it lately. Both Loe and Dominguez are risky but potentially worthwhile selections for AL-only owners in need of pitching. The rest – young EDISON VOLQUEZ, R.A. DICKEY, and potentially JOSH RUPE – won’t help anybody.

September Call-Ups Have Little Impact
Texas has recalled catcher GERALD LAIRD, outfielder JASON BOTTS and infielders MARSHALL MCDOUGALL and ESTEBAN GERMAN since September 1st. Only Laird has played, starting five of twelve games this month while ROD BARAJAS has started six and SANDY ALOMAR just one. Laird and Barajas have alternated starts during the last eight games. I expect this arrangement to continue, although Laird might nab a little more time toward the very end. Job-sharing is the bane of the fantasy owner, so check those free-agent pools. At this stage of the season, with the eliminated teams doling out at-bats among so many players, you might just have to stick with Barajas.

Botts may supplant MARK DEROSA in right field or PHIL NEVIN at DH against lefties. Or, Texas might just let him draw the Major-League minimum as an observer. Texas faces a lefty on Wednesday, so take a gander at who starts. McDougall and German couldn’t gets fewer at-bats if they were dead, so don’t bother.

So The Rich Get Richer
The relative stasis is good news to owners of most Ranger position players. Texas didn’t recall prospect Ian Kinsler, so ALFONSO SORIANO won’t miss more than a game or two the rest of the way. The same applies to MARK TEIXEIRA, MICHAEL YOUNG and HANK BLALOCK. Blalock’s post-All-Star swoon continues unabated, but until the last week or so his fantasy stats were at least palatable. Lately, not so much. Blalock did hit his first homer in over a month Tuesday night. Keep him in your lineup and hope for the best. Outfielders KEVIN MENCH and GARY MATTHEWS will play every day, while DAVID DELLUCCI and ADRIAN GONZALEZ will start only against righties. Dellucci is useful in larger ESPN mixed leagues, while Gonzalez doesn’t quite make the cut.

Posted by Lucas at 11:55 PM

September 01, 2005

ESPN Column

September 1st Brings Little Change
Texas made only one roster move on the first day of roster expansion, recalling catcher GERALD LAIRD from AAA Oklahoma. For the next few days and probably through the PCL playoffs if Oklahoma retains its hold on first place, outfielder JASON BOTTS and second baseman IAN KINSLER will stay on the farm. Texas hasn’t indicated how often Laird will start. I’d guess not as often as ROD BARAJAS, swell for his owners but a disappointment for those who’d like to see the ostensible “catcher of the future” start some games in the present. Barajas will see a cut in his playing time, but not enough to cut immediately into his value too much. Laird might start more often as the season enter the final two weeks or so.

Ranger Hurlers Dominate!
After setting the game of baseball back 100 years during a 1-12 road trip, Texas finished its homestand 7-3 via six quality starts and two additional strong five-inning efforts. All for the sole purpose of frustrating my vain efforts to advise fantasy owners. With Texas playing the hopeless Royals (“Batting fourth, outfielder Terrence Long.”) over the weekend in pitcher-friendly Kaufmann Stadium, any Ranger starter merits consideration. CHRIS YOUNG starts Friday and is obviously the best choice. He suffered through a terrible six weeks in which his home run rate approach infinity, but since then he’s allowed one run in three starts. JUAN DOMINGUEZ pitches Saturday. He’s gifted, but who knows what he’ll do. Maybe six scoreless innings. Maybe six runs allowed in three innings.

Those needing help in AL-only leagues should give him a try. He might even have some value in mixed leagues for this particular start, but only to owners with desperate pitching situations. Don’t bother with JOAQUIN BENOIT, who belongs in relief. EDISON VOLQUEZ made a shaky but promising debut on Tuesday. The 22-year-old has split the season between high-A and AA, and though he struck out a million batters he also had a four-plus ERA. Don’t mess with him this year. KAMERON LOE has made two excellent starts in the past week, albeit against rather weak Twin and White Sock batters. He’ll face Minnesota on the road next. As with Dominguez, he could help an AL-only owner, but I can’t recommend him outright. He has yet to start on the road and doesn’t have much stamina.

Line Up
DAVID DELLUCCI and ADRIAN GONZALEZ play only against righties, while PHIL NEVIN and MARK DEROSA face lefties. The other non-catchers start every game. Dellucci is batting only .247 in August but otherwise has strong numbers (18 runs, 5 homers, 13 RBI). Remember to platoon him with another outfielder to maximize his value. Gonzalez hasn’t hit well of late but still should assist AL-only owners. Nevin is still owned in 49% of mixed leagues. He belongs in 0%.
With the Rangers facing several lefties lately, RF MARK DEROSA (yes, right fielder) has started more frequently and is hitting fairly well for once (.289 with two homers in August). He might offer a smidgen of help in larger AL-only leagues for a week or so, but he should (he’d better) hit the bench once Botts and friends arrive.

Cordero Okay
FRANCISCO CORDERO missed a couple of games with a stiff forearm and back, but since then he’s pitched and recorded saves in two of the last three games. He saved only three games in August, but that’s (mostly) not his fault. Owners needn’t worry about him.

Posted by Lucas at 01:56 AM

August 22, 2005

ESPN Column

Prospects Not On The Way
With the Rangers firmly ensconced in Loserville, fantasy owners might be looking for fresh blood to infuse life into their teams. Alas, at this time, Texas does not offer much in the way of promising pitchers and hitters. Other than Adrian Gonzalez (see below), no prospective hitters are expected to make their way to Arlington before September, and their arrival might be further delayed by AAA Oklahoma’s potential playoff run. OF JASON BOTTS and catcher GERALD LAIRD are the most likely arrivals. I fear that neither will play often enough to have much use even in AL-only leagues. Botts probably will supplant MARK DEROSA in right field (yes, DeRosa’s been playing RF – quality roster management, gentlemen) against lefties and DH on occasion.

Laird will join the catching rotation but probably won’t start more than half the time at best. 2B IAN KINSLER is firmly blocked by ALFONSO “Give Me Second Base Or Give Me Death” SORIANO, who apparently did not entice enough in return to consummate a trade. Texas has several promising pitchers in the minors (really) and might recall one or two for some September hi-jinks, but they’re just plain old promising, not “King Felix” promising.

Gonzalez Up Again, Nevin Semi-Demoted
Texas recalled ADRIAN GONZALEZ for what must be the seventeenth time this season, the difference now being that they actually plan to play him. Gonzalez should start against righties, while ironically titled “designated hitter” PHIL NEVIN is reduced to a lefty-only role. Active AL-only owners should take a flyer on Gonzalez with the understanding that daily roster management will be necessary. As for Nevin, moving from Petco Park to a hitter-friendly park in the American League has accomplished nothing. He has as many double plays as RBI. Nevin is an easy drop in mixed leagues, and, like Gonzalez, he’ll require daily roster management in AL-only leagues. If Texas sticks to its guns (a dubious proposition, I know), Gonzalez will start about twice as often as Nevin.

Stay The Course
Nobody among MARK TEIXEIRA, HANK BLALOCK or KEVIN MENCH is having much of a second half. Mench in particular has tailed off. Just keep playing them. I’d stick with Blalock even though he has a history of weak second halves. Blalock is batting a tepid .248-22-7-17 since the break, but those 22 homers rank fourth among third basemen, the seven homers are tied for eighth best in MLB and the 17 RBI rank twelfth. You won’t find a replacement for that on the waiver wire.

Rotation
CHRIS YOUNG awoke from a two-month nap last week and pitched eight innings of shutout ball against Cleveland. I wouldn’t lie to you by suggesting he’s turned a corner or that his slump is in its last throes. However, Young does face a light-hitting Seattle squad, and those willing to take a risk ought to consider him. Opponents have battered KENNY ROGERS in three starts since his truncated suspension, and you might say he deserves it. Whether he does or not (he does), the matter at hand is his ability to help a fantasy team. Rogers will next face Minnesota and Chicago, two good teams with unimpressive offenses (relative to their home parks, both are worse than Seattle). As with Young, I grudgingly recommend him to owners needing to make a move and willing to risk abject failure.

JUAN DOMINGUEZ should start for Texas the rest of the way. Statistically, Dominguez is the condensed version of Chris Young. Young alternates between dominating and atrocious performances, while Dominguez usually displays both within the space of a few innings. At this stage, Dominguez offers more potential than actual production. He might strike out ten batters and permit twelve baserunners. Only the least risk-averse of AL-only owners need apply. Healthy or not, RICARDO RODRIGUEZ may not join rejoin the rotation until September, and the local dailies indicate he may have fallen out of favor with management. Don’t bother with JOAQUIN BENOIT or anyone Texas might recall from the minors next month.

Schedule Fair and Balanced
In their last 39 games, Texas plays fourteen against basement dwellers (Seattle and Kansas City) and sixteen against playoff-bound teams (Chicago, LA and Oakland), with the rest versus Minnesota and Baltimore. They also have 23 home games and sixteen on the road.

Posted by Lucas at 12:56 AM

August 13, 2005

ESPN Column

What Is Gary Matthews Eating?
GARY MATTHEWS is easily the hottest Ranger right now, batting .342/.425/.631 with seven homers since the All-Star Break. I haven’t touted him because his career line is a far more modest .253/.330/.402, and I expected him to slide back toward those numbers sooner rather than later. Yet, not only is Matthews staying hot, he’s batting .400 and slugging .700 in August. His ownership in mixed league has reached what must be a lifetime high of 36%. He is the only legitimate center fielder on the team and is virtually guaranteed to play every game. Advice? Sure. I still wouldn’t bother with him in eight-team mixed leagues and probably not ten. Recall that he batted .250/.285/.415 in about 200 pre-ASB plate appearances and was barely worth owning even in AL-only leagues.

Acquiring him in mixed leagues won’t hurt you, but you’ll need to keep him on a short leash and scan the waiver wire for a potential upgrade. I just don’t think Matthews is someone who’ll stay hot over the last six weeks and give you a ride to a championship. As for his field mates: RICHARD HIDALGO is progressing slowly from his strained wrist tendon. Even if he suddenly heals, Texas would be wise to delay his return until rosters expand in September. Expect very little from him the rest of the way. DALID DELLUCCI’s starting status hasn’t changed (all righties, no lefties), but now he plays left field instead of DH. KEVIN MENCH has moved to right. He’s hit poorly since the break, but you have no reason to remove him from your lineup.

What Phil Nevin Can Do For You
So far, not much. The new everyday DH has batted .220 with one homer and four RBI in twelve games as a Ranger, and his OPS trails what he posted in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Those in AL-only leagues have no choice but to keep him and hope for improvement, but mixed-leaguers have a decision to make. Those in smaller mixed leagues ought to cut bait. In twelve-team leagues, give him another week, then reassess, but if you see someone decent in the free-agent pool, make a move now. I predicted “middling” production from him two weeks ago, and that’s what he ought to provide. Nevin has a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.400 slugging percentage in 85 games. He’s highly unlikely to revert to his 2001 form.

Rogers Returns
KENNY ROGERS returned from his all-too-brief suspension and promptly allowed five runs in five innings to a formidable Boston lineup. Rogers took a comebacker off of his already broken glove hand in the first inning but remained in the game. He won’t miss any time and should start Tuesday at Cleveland followed by Sunday at Tampa Bay. RICARDO RODRIGUEZ hit the DL with a contusion in his arm caused by yet another comebacker. He shouldn’t miss over the minimum, though he isn’t fantasy-worthy in anything but a large AL-only league.

What’s Wrong With Cordero?
FRANCISCO CORDERO hasn’t saved a game since July 30th. Texas is 3-11 since then, and the smallest margin in any of them has been six runs. Cordero is fine. Don’t trade him for Tanyon Sturtze or someone silly like that.

September Morn
Though I approve of the Park-for-Nevin trade, Nevin’s presence combined with the Rangers’ post-Break collapse creates some unfavorable roster issues in September. Texas ought to be creating room for both 1B ADRIAN GONZALEZ and OF JASON BOTTS , but where to play them? Assuming Nevin will start most of the time, Gonzalez is blocked by him and Teixeira at first. Botts likewise can’t DH and would have to supplant Mench or Dellucci in the outfield (he can’t play center). For that matter, the retention of ALFONSO SORIANO blocks prospect IAN KINSLER. Unless Texas finds a post-waiver trading partner for Nevin (who is doing nothing to create interest), they may find themselves in a position of needing to build for 2006 yet having nowhere to fit the youngsters.

Posted by Lucas at 12:31 AM

August 04, 2005

ESPN Column

Trade Winds Blow Softly
After weeks of speculation and intrigue, the Rangers retained the services of ALFONSO SORIANO but traded the seemingly untradeable CHAN HO PARK. Texas technically can still trade Soriano or anyone else, but players must now pass through waivers. Since none of the bottom-ranked teams would dare claim Soriano and his $7.5 million salary, the Rangers might yet work out a deal with a mid-level team. Odds are he'll finish the season in Arlington, and AL-only owners can rest a little more easily.

Nevin Arrives
Texas traded Park to San Diego for Phil Nevin. Nevin's role is undefined for the long term, but so far he's watched from the bench once and then batted cleanup against a lefty and a righty. He doesn't deserve such placement against anyone, yet there he is. Texas may be showcasing him for another trade. Clearly he merits pickup in AL-only leagues, although he shouldn’t provide more than middling production. Nevin has batted a loathsome .256/.301/.399 this season in hitter-hating Petco Park. In mixed leagues, avoid him for now if your league has ten or fewer teams. Incidentally, Park joined the Rangers the same season I "joined" ESPN, and I'm relieved I don't have to write about him anymore.

Seems Like Old Times
The Rangers have quickly reverted to their m.o. of not offering any worthwhile starting pitchers in mixed leagues. That's not entirely true, as KENNY ROGERS should provide help once his suspension ends. As for the rest... CHRIS YOUNG has run off the rails in his last nine starts, his ERA jumping from 2.78 to 4.94. Oddly, most of his peripherals haven't changed dramatically, and in fact his strikeout rate has increased. The killer is his home run rate. Young allowed four homers in his first thirteen starts and twelve in his last nine. Since he'd mostly stayed the course except for that one (admittedly important) statistic, I'd suggested to some emailers that he deserved another chance against Tampa Bay Monday night. Let's just say that didn't work out.

Now, with Young presumably facing a solid Orioles offense in Arlington followed by the Yankees on the road, mixed leaguers should cut bait. Likewise, mixed leaguers should look skeptically upon JOAQUIN BENOIT and his 1.94 ERA. Benoit has a checkered history as a starter and will face Baltimore and Boston in his next attempts.

Posted by Lucas at 12:29 AM

July 27, 2005

ESPN Column

Soriano’s Days Numbered In Single Digits?
With the Rangers quickly falling out of the race for the postseason, Texas looks like they’ll be selling. ALFONSO SORIANO stands out among tradeable players, and rumors abound of him going to the Mets, Yankees, and even the Twins and Mets. Trading