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December 31, 2010
Happy New Year
Jack, 31 December 2010
The shoes aren't mine. They belong to my wife. As far as you know.
Best to you and yours. Thanks for reading me here and at the Newberg Report.
Posted by Lucas at 08:37 PM
December 25, 2010
Merry Christmas
Jack, 3 December 2010
Posted by Lucas at 12:19 AM
December 18, 2010
Weekend Photo
Sunrise over Six Flags, from the Sheraton Hotel in Arlington, Texas, 17 Dec 2010.
Posted by Lucas at 02:24 AM
December 14, 2010
Cliff Lee and Longevity
So, despite the best efforts of the Rangers and Yankees, Cliff Lee is a Phillie. He'll receive $120 million over five years, which includes $12.5 million of a $27.5 million sixth-year vesting option. That's in the range of $8,000 per pitch if he remains healthy. If you're into whining about player salaries, there's your talking point.
One of these players will not be part of the Texas rotation in 2011.
How many wins above replacement (WAR) do the Phils need from Lee do justify that contract? Extrapolating from historical figures at Fangraphs, I estimate an average dollars-per-win during 2011-2015 of somewhere between $4.86 million(assuming tepid 10% league-wide salary growth in 2011 and 5% in subsequent years) to $5.62 million (a more robust 15% in 2011, 10% thereafter). Also assuming that the contract runs only five years, it necessitates between 21.3 and 24.6 WAR to pay off. (Since the dollars per win changes annually, the timing of Lee's wins affects his overall value, but to avoid undue complication I'm just using the average dollars per win over the five-year period.) Thus, Lee needs to average about 4.3-4.9 WAR per season after managing just under 7.0 during 2008-2010.
What is the likelihood of Lee pitching that well? I first compiled a list of all starting pitchers with at least nine WAR in their Age 29-31 seasons during 1980-2010. There's nothing special about nine; three WAR per season just felt like a good cutoff. The age bracket matches Lee's last three seasons, and the date corresponds roughly to modern usage patterns. (I didn't want to compare Lee to someone who threw 420 innings in 1892.) I then summed each pitcher's WAR for the subsequent five years, which correspond to the length of Lee's contract. Pitchers who performed well in their Age 29-31 seasons but in the midst of that five-year follow-up (e.g., Halladay, Livan Hernandez) were excluded. 51 pitchers made the cut. Per Baseball-Reference.com *, Lee earned 16.6 WAR during his Age 29-31 seasons, which would place him sixth on this list and ahead of such luminaries as Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens.
| Pitcher | Ages 29-31 | Ages 32-36 | Pitcher | Ages 29-31 | Ages 32-36 | Pitcher | Ages 29-31 | Ages 32-36 |
| Greg Maddux | 22.4 | 23.7 | Bill Swift | 12.3 | 1.5 | Bret Saberhagen | 10.1 | 5.8 |
| Randy Johnson | 19.0 | 30.2 | Bartolo Colon | 12.2 | 3.5 | Ron Guidry | 10.0 | 15.1 |
| Pedro Martinez | 17.7 | 10.6 | Chuck Finley | 12.0 | 18.7 | Mike Boddicker | 9.9 | 8.1 |
| David Cone | 17.6 | 23.8 | Teddy Higuera | 11.8 | 1.0 | Scott Erickson | 9.7 | (3.1) |
| Curt Schilling | 16.3 | 27.7 | Jack Morris | 11.8 | 10.2 | Sid Fernandez | 9.7 | 2.3 |
| Roger Clemens | 16.0 | 30.2 | Kenny Rogers | 11.6 | 14.5 | Jim Clancy | 9.7 | (4.8) |
| Tom Glavine | 15.3 | 19.9 | Al Leiter | 11.5 | 18.9 | Mike Morgan | 9.6 | 7.7 |
| John Tudor | 14.3 | 13.0 | Rick Rhoden | 11.5 | 10.1 | Andy Pettitte | 9.6 | 12.1 |
| Orel Hershiser | 14.2 | 12.7 | John Denny | 11.3 | 1.3 | Ken Hill | 9.4 | 1.0 |
| Mike Mussina | 14.1 | 21.5 | Mark Langston | 11.1 | 13.1 | Dave Stewart | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| John Smoltz | 13.8 | 9.8 | Doug Drabek | 11.0 | (1.4) | Danny Darwin | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| Bob Welch | 13.8 | 7.8 | Rick Sutcliffe | 10.7 | 8.4 | Jimmy Key | 9.2 | 17.9 |
| Jason Schmidt | 13.7 | 4.2 | Tom Candiotti | 10.6 | 21.2 | Jon Lieber | 9.2 | 7.5 |
| C. Leibrandt | 13.7 | 10.0 | Andy Ashby | 10.4 | 1.3 | Shane Rawley | 9.1 | 0.2 |
| Kevin Brown | 13.3 | 30.0 | Charles Nagy | 10.3 | 1.6 | Zane Smith | 9.0 | 3.2 |
| Bruce Hurst | 13.1 | 8.3 | Joaquin Andujar | 10.2 | 0.1 | John Candelaria | 9.0 | 5.4 |
| Frank Viola | 12.6 | 9.8 | Rich Gossage | 10.2 | 3.0 | Rick Mahler | 9.0 | 7.5 |
* Important caveat: I'm using Baseball Reference's WAR, not Fangraphs, for the remainder analysis. I hate switching, but BR's Play Index makes data compilation sooooooo much easier. I'm not going to make the mistake of combining BR's WAR with Fangraphs' dollars-per-win; rather, I'm focusing on a more general assessment of pitcher aging.
Based on these comparisons, Lee's probability of continuing to pitch well is better than I expected. The pitchers below 14 WAR in their Age 29-31 seasons are all over the map. You have Kevin Brown, who finally realized his estimable potential in his mid-thirties. You also have swan dives from Doug Drabek and Jim Clancy. But among the elite pitchers, all with at least 14 WAR in their Age 29-31 seasons, the decline in quality is quite mild. Yes, Pedro Martinez collapsed after two seasons, and John Tudor was nothing special, but on the whole the best pitchers continued to dominate. The average pitcher in the below-14 group lost 58% of his annual value during the subsequent five years, while the above-14 group lost only 23%. Lee is part of the above-14 group.
Let's take a closer look at the elite group:
Again, the best pitchers acquit themselves pretty well. Of the 50 combined seasons, only seven are below two WAR, and five of those belong to Martinez and Tudor. Purely based on these comparisons, Lee can be expected to maintain his status among the better (if not best) pitchers in the game, and his contract, while among the lucrative in baseball history, isn't unconscionable. That said, the monetary upside for the Phillies is minimal. Also, this comparison depends on your willingness to include folks like Maddux and Clemens as Lee's peers. I'm just going where the data takes me.
The annual dollars are only part of the equation. The real stickler for Texas was years. Reportedly, the Rangers balked at a guaranteed seventh year that would have landed Lee. They were right. Among the group of ten best pitchers, the average WAR declined to 2.9 in their Age 37 seasons and to 2.5 at Age 38 (only 2.3 and 1.8, respectively, if excluding an otherworldly Randy Johnson, who amassed 17.2 WAR during his Age 37-38 seasons). By their late thirties, some of the best pitchers of the last thirty years were essentially worthless. Guaranteeing over $20 million for a 38-year-old seven years in advance does little more than increase risk.
Elvis Costello, "This Year's Girl," from This Year's Model, 1978.
Posted by Lucas at 06:14 PM
December 08, 2010
A Prospect List
MILB Prospects releases an insane 2,000-player prospect list every season. I've culled the Rangers from it (overall ranking in parentheses):
| 1. (23) Martin Perez (P) | 26. (622) Kasey Kiker (P) | 51. (1177) Esdras Abreu (SS) |
| 2. (51) Robbie Erlin (P) | 27. (678) Carlos Pimentel (P) | 52. (1192) Randol Rojas (P) |
| 3. (65) Jurickson Profar (SS) | 28. (693) Richard Bleier (P) | 53. (1244) Odubel Herrera (2B) |
| 4. (150) Tanner Scheppers (P) | 29. (774) Nicholas Tepesch (P) | 54. (1251) Hanser Alberto (H) |
| 5. (201) Engel Beltre (OF) | 30. (823) Ryan Tucker (P) | 55. (1300) Guillermo Moscoso (P) |
| 6. (217) Mike Olt (3B) | 31. (824) Tomas Telis (C) | 56. (1301) Manny Solis (3B) |
| 7. (283) Wilfredo Boscan (P) | 32. (855) Chris McGuiness (1B) | 57. (1330) Carlos Melo (P) |
| 8. (308) Kellin Deglan (C) | 33. (857) Miguel De Los Santos (P) | 58. (1340) Tommy Mendonca (3B) |
| 9. (322) Wilmer Font (P) | 34. (885) Santiago Chirino (2B) | 59. (1391) Craig Gentry (OF) |
| 10. (328) Jake Skole (OF) | 35. (915) Max Ramirez (C) | 60. (1451) Victor Payano (P) |
| 11. (351) Barret Loux (P) | 36. (917) Zach Phillips (P) | 61. (1453) Trevor Hurley (P) |
| 12. (377) Luis Sardinas (SS) | 37. (926) Clark Murphy (1B) | 62. (1487) Roberto Perez (P) |
| 13. (417) Luke Jackson (P) | 38. (972) Tim Murphy (P) | 63. (1506) Leonel Gil (P) |
| 14. (430) Robbie Ross (P) | 39. (1007) Jordan Akins (OF) | 64. (1541) Andrew Doyle (P) |
| 15. (452) Neil Ramirez (P) | 40. (1023) Jake Brigham (P) | 65. (1668) Christian Villanueva (3B) |
| 16. (475) Cody Buckel (P) | 41. (1034) Matt Thompson (P) | 66. (1751) Braxton Lane (OF) |
| 17. (493) Justin Grimm (P) | 42. (1052) Miguel Velazquez (OF) | 67. (1789) Andrew Clark (1B) |
| 18. (516) Michael Kirkman (P) | 43. (1094) Beau Jones (P) | 68. (1868) Christopher Garia (H) |
| 19. (526) Joe Wieland (P) | 44. (1108) James Reyes (P) | 69. (1935) Kennil Gomez (P) |
| 20. (532) Teodoro Martinez (OF) | 45. (1111) Kendall Radcliffe (OF) | 70. (1954) Drew Robinson (SS) |
| 21. (548) Braden Tullis (P) | 46. (1142) Joshua Richmond (OF) | 71. (1980) Edwin Garcia (SS) |
| 22. (563) Joseph Ortiz (P) | 47. (1149) Daniel Gutierrez (P) | 72. (1993) Luis Mendez (H) |
| 23. (567) Leury Garcia (SS) | 48. (1160) David Paisano (H) | 73. (1997) Jorge Alfaro (C) |
| 24. (584) Richard Alvarez (P) | 49. (1166) Pedro Strop (P) | - |
| 25. (598) Marcus Lemon (SS) | 50. (1167) Ben Snyder (P) | - |
And among the departed:
314. Michael Main
360. Blake Beavan
1383. Tanner Roark
1468. Evan Reed
Unranked: Matt Lawson, Josh Lueke, Omar Poveda, Ryan Tatusko
Posted by Lucas at 12:44 PM
December 03, 2010
Weekend Photo
Cemetery near Route 66 between Alanreed and Groom, Texas, February 2003
Posted by Lucas at 11:59 PM