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March 30, 2010
Old Times Were Good Times
The Dallas Business Journal, 4 August 2006:
Hicks borrows big for 'flexibility': Funds could go to Rangers, Stars or stadiums.If Texas Rangers owner Tom Hicks were on the mound, the crowd would clearly see that he's winding up for something big.
In June, when interest rates dipped, he added $75 million in loans in addition to the $325 million he borrowed in December "for future flexibility, for whatever might come our way down the road," Hicks said.
Posted by Lucas at 01:02 AM
March 25, 2010
Max Ramirez Is The Next Micah Owings
There's no other "M Ramirez" with the Rangers, and the link brings up Max's page. He stranded two of Ben Snyder's runners!
Posted by Lucas at 05:49 PM
Photos from Friday
Posted by Lucas at 11:53 AM
March 22, 2010
Photos from Thursday
Low-A and High-A Intersquad Game, "B" Game, and "A" game at Surprise Stadium:
Posted by Lucas at 12:21 PM
March 20, 2010
Photos from Wednesday
Minor League Workouts and Sim Game:
Posted by Lucas at 09:12 AM
March 18, 2010
Photos from Tuesday
Posted by Lucas at 03:24 AM
March 17, 2010
O My Soul
Rest In Peace, Alex Chilton.
Posted by Lucas at 09:01 PM
Photos from Monday
Slideshow 2, Texas vs. San Francisco:
Posted by Lucas at 04:46 AM
March 13, 2010
Arizona Bound
Justin Smoak, 20 March 2009
Posted by Lucas at 12:13 AM
March 06, 2010
Can Michael Young reach 3,000 base hits?
MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan answered the question thusly:
Does Michael Young have a realistic shot at 3,000 career hits?
-- Maggie W., Burleson, TexasYes. Young, who turned 33 last October, has 1,662 career hits. Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, comparable as a hitter to Young, had 1,561 hits in eight full seasons after turning 33. Craig Biggio had 1,380 hits in eight seasons after turning 33. But there are also many players who had numbers similar to Young at this point in his career and ultimately fell well short of 3,000 hits. So much depends on Young staying healthy because physical issues have kept him from getting 200 hits in each of the past two seasons.
Two weeks later, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News expanded on Young-for-3,000 possibility with comparisons to Barry Larkin, Craig Biggio, Julio Franco, and, most notably, Paul Molitor.
For my part, I began examining the likelihood of Young reaching 3,000 hits soon after Sullivan’s article, then let it slide because of my real job. Once Grant added his two cents, I hurriedly finished my research for a March 1st post. Nope… work and Cat Search 2010 consumed another week. So, at last…
Here’s the 3,000 Hit Club minus Cap Anson, whose inaugural season predates the National League and ended in 1897:
Player (age) | Career Hits | Debut Age | Hits thru Age 23 Season | Hits thru Age 32 Season | Hits after Age 32 Season | Age of Last Season as Qualifier | Age of Last Season |
Michael Young | - | 24 | 0 | 1662 | - | - | - |
Pete Rose | 4256 | 22 | 309 | 2152 | 2104 | 42 | 45 |
Ty Cobb | 4189 | 18 | 959 | 2713 | 1476 | 40 | 41 |
Hank Aaron | 3771 | 20 | 718 | 2434 | 1337 | 41 | 42 |
Stan Musial | 3630 | 20 | 584 | 2223 | 1407 | 41 | 42 |
Tris Speaker | 3514 | 19 | 547 | 2232 | 1282 | 39 | 40 |
Honus Wagner | 3420 | 23 | 81 | 1751 | 1669 | 42 | 43 |
Carl Yastrzemski | 3419 | 21 | 529 | 1952 | 1467 | 42 | 43 |
Paul Molitor | 3319 | 21 | 467 | 1751 | 1568 | 41 | 41 |
Eddie Collins | 3315 | 19 | 487 | 1981 | 1334 | 38 | 43 |
Willie Mays | 3283 | 20 | 352 | 2033 | 1250 | 40 | 42 |
Eddie Murray | 3255 | 21 | 526 | 2021 | 1234 | 40 | 41 |
Nap Lajoie | 3242 | 21 | 451 | 1909 | 1333 | 40 | 41 |
Cal Ripken | 3184 | 20 | 569 | 2087 | 1097 | 40 | 40 |
George Brett | 3154 | 20 | 544 | 1967 | 1187 | 40 | 40 |
Paul Waner | 3152 | 23 | 180 | 2036 | 1116 | 36 | 42 |
Robin Yount | 3142 | 18 | 871 | 2407 | 735 | 37 | 37 |
Tony Gwynn | 3141 | 22 | 149 | 1864 | 1277 | 38 | 41 |
Dave Winfield | 3110 | 21 | 307 | 1761 | 1349 | 41 | 43 |
Craig Biggio | 3060 | 22 | 140 | 1680 | 1380 | 41 | 41 |
Rickey Henderson | 3055 | 20 | 553 | 1888 | 1167 | 39 | 44 |
Rod Carew | 3053 | 21 | 428 | 2085 | 968 | 39 | 39 |
Lou Brock | 3023 | 22 | 115 | 1808 | 1215 | 38 | 40 |
Rafael Palmeiro | 3020 | 21 | 257 | 1792 | 1228 | 39 | 40 |
Wade Boggs | 3010 | 24 | 0 | 1784 | 1226 | 38 | 41 |
Al Kaline | 3007 | 18 | 880 | 2228 | 779 | 39 | 39 |
Rbto. Clemente | 3000 | 20 | 554 | 2238 | 762 | 37 | 37 |
Average | - | 20.7 | 462 | 2,030 | 1,267 | 39.5 | 41.1 |
Median | - | 21 | 487 | 2,001 | 1,264 | 40 | 41 |
The breakdown of their careers indicates several serious obstacles to Young’s attempt to join them:
1. Recall that Young did not join Texas as a fully assembled 200-hit machine. Drafted as a 20-year-old out of UC Santa Barbara, he needed nearly a full season at each level of the minors above rookie-ball. Aside from a tiny sip of coffee in 2000, Young’s Major League career didn’t commence until 2001, his Age 24 season. During 2001-2002, his Age 24 and 25 seasons, he batted a meager .257/.304/.390. He spent April 2002 time-sharing second base with Frank Catalanotto, after which Little Cat’s shift to four-corner super-sub initiated Young’s seven-year quasi-Iron Man streak.
The late and tepid start is obviously problematic. Wade Boggs is the only member of the 3,000-hit club to collect his first hit during his Age 24 season. The average age was 20.7, the median 21. The non-Boggs contingent accumulated an average of 462 hits before their Age 24 seasons. Others with relatively modest starts were Wagner (81), Lou Brock (115), Tony Gwynn (149), and Paul Waner (180).
2. Because of the above, Young’s 1,662 hits through his Age 32 season trail every member of the 3,000-hit club at the same stage in his career. Closest are Craig Biggio (1,680), Paul Molitor (1,751), and Honus Wagner (1,751).
3. On average, members of the 3,000-hit club collected 1,267 hits subsequent to their Age 32 season. Young needs 1,338, a figure that only seven of the 26 members attained. Thus, even among this group of baseball’s most elite hitters, Young must perform better than average.
4. If Young wants to achieve 3,000 hits before turning 40, he’ll need to average 191 for the next seven seasons. In the near future, he has a reasonably good chance to do so. Come mid-decade, he’s bucking ridiculous odds. Only three players have achieved the more economical sum of 160 hits during their Age 37, 38 and 39 seasons: Pete Rose, Tris Speaker, and Sam Rice (who actually didn’t reach 3,000). The combination of bat speed, stamina and good health at that age is extraordinarily rare.
So, given the unfavorable comparisons with those who achieved 3,000 hits, let’s examine Young in terms of the subsequent performance of players with similar careers through Age 32. I compiled a list of all hitters with at least 831 hits (one-half Young’s total) by the age and created a least-squares ranking using hits through each player’s Age 32 season, starting age of career, hits per game, and batting average. I also included (with less emphasis) batting average on balls in play, rate of walks plus HBP, and isolated power, all of which help to eliminate batters with extremely dissimilar hitting profiles. Without them, the list includes strange comparables like Jeff Bagwell.
A handful of the closest comparables (Jack Tobin, Babe Herman) were already done as regulars by the time they turned 32, so I manually deleted them. Everyone on this list qualified for the batting title for at least one more season, almost always more. Finally, I deleted active players. (Okay, the listed Garret Anderson is still active. But not very.) Note that this list isn’t akin to Bill James’s Similarity Scores. I’m not seeking the Young’s best overall matches, just for a specific set of characteristics.
The most similar 25, in order:
Player | Hits thru Age 32 season | Hits / Game | Debut Age | Batting Average | Career Hits | Hits after Age 32 season | Age of Last Season | Age of Last "Good" Season | Age of Last Season as Qualifier |
Michael Young | 1662 | 1.23 | 24 | .302 | - | - | - | - | - |
Julio Franco | 1605 | 1.17 | 23 | .302 | 2586 | 981 | 48 | 46 | 38 |
Willie McGee | 1548 | 1.17 | 23 | .298 | 2254 | 706 | 40 | 38 | 34 |
Bob Meusel | 1565 | 1.21 | 23 | .311 | 1693 | 128 | 33 | 31 | 33 |
Kirby Puckett | 1812 | 1.31 | 24 | .321 | 2304 | 492 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
Bernie Williams | 1629 | 1.18 | 22 | .305 | 2336 | 707 | 37 | 33 | 36 |
Paul Molitor | 1751 | 1.22 | 21 | .300 | 3319 | 1568 | 41 | 40 | 41 |
Mark Grace | 1514 | 1.17 | 24 | .309 | 2445 | 931 | 39 | 37 | 37 |
Lou Brock | 1808 | 1.18 | 22 | .291 | 3023 | 1215 | 40 | 38 | 40 |
Bill Madlock | 1557 | 1.16 | 22 | .317 | 2008 | 451 | 36 | 36 | 34 |
Ken Boyer | 1531 | 1.12 | 24 | .296 | 2143 | 612 | 38 | 37 | 35 |
Dave Parker | 1479 | 1.14 | 22 | .305 | 2712 | 1233 | 40 | 39 | 40 |
Will Clark | 1667 | 1.10 | 22 | .300 | 2176 | 509 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
Jim Bottomley | 1727 | 1.24 | 22 | .325 | 2313 | 586 | 37 | 32 | 36 |
Garret Anderson | 1766 | 1.20 | 22 | .299 | 2501 | 735 | 37 | 32 | 37 |
Edd Roush | 1732 | 1.21 | 20 | .330 | 2376 | 644 | 38 | 36 | 36 |
Zack Wheat | 1738 | 1.14 | 21 | .302 | 2884 | 1146 | 39 | 39 | 37 |
Sam West | 1503 | 1.10 | 22 | .303 | 1838 | 335 | 37 | 35 | 33 |
Stan Hack | 1581 | 1.15 | 22 | .304 | 2193 | 612 | 37 | 36 | 35 |
Wally Moses | 1438 | 1.20 | 24 | .302 | 2138 | 700 | 40 | 38 | 34 |
Buddy Myer | 1692 | 1.16 | 21 | .302 | 2131 | 439 | 37 | 36 | 34 |
Gee Walker | 1450 | 1.21 | 23 | .310 | 1991 | 541 | 37 | 29 | 36 |
HR Baker | 1510 | 1.19 | 22 | .311 | 1838 | 328 | 36 | 33 | 33 |
Craig Biggio | 1680 | 1.09 | 22 | .292 | 3060 | 1380 | 41 | 35 | 41 |
Dick Groat | 1636 | 1.16 | 21 | .293 | 2138 | 502 | 36 | 33 | 35 |
Tony Lazzeri | 1675 | 1.09 | 22 | .297 | 1840 | 165 | 35 | 35 | 33 |
Average | 1624 | 1.17 | 22.2 | .305 | 2330 | 706 | 38.0 | 35.8 | 36.0 |
Median | 1629 | 1.17 | 22 | .302 | 2254 | 612 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
Note: A "Good" season in the table signifies at least 100 plate appearances and a batting average and on-base percentage above the park-adjusted league average.
Both of Sullivan’s comparisons and most of Grant’s appear on my list. Barry Larkin’s 190 fewer hits than Young, higher walk rate and “poor” .306 BABIP (because he struck out so infrequently) create a slightly less valuable comparison in my system. What I take from this set of players:
1. Three of Young’s 25 most similar hitters reached 3,000 hits: Molitor, Bagwell, and Lou Brock. As noted, all began their Year 33 seasons with more hits than Young.
2. Among those most similar to Young, only seven reached 2,500 hits, and five actually departed with less than 2,000. A search on “Bob Meusel,” famous for following Ruth and Gehrig in the Yankee lineups of the 1920s, reveals the epithets “lazy,” “indifferent,” and “unpopular,” three words never appended to Young. Meusel’s last good season came at Age 31, and by 33 he was done. Meusel aside, most of these players reached their mid-thirties in respectable form, but very few remained healthy and effective thereafter.
3. The average batter collected only 706 hits after his Age 32 season. Molitor (1,568) and Biggio (1,380) are dramatic outliers and the only two listed to surpass the 1,338 hits needed by Young.
4. Young will be fulfilling the final year of his five-year, $80 million contract as a 36-year-old. 12 of the 25 hitters most similar to Young failed to accumulate enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in their Age 36 seasons. That is to say, they were hurt, ineffective, or (in a few cases) already retired.
Michael Young has the second-most hits in baseball during the last seven years (trailing Ichiro). Better yet, his 1,416 hits during his Age 26-32 seasons are the sixth-most in MLB history, the others in an illustrious top ten being Heinie Manush, Boggs, Puckett, Rose, Harry Heilmann, Musial, Carew, and Rogers Hornsby. Despite those accomplishments, he’s highly unlikely to reach 3,000. Bill James’s “Favorite Toy” tool grants him an 18% chance. With no disrespect to Young, I would give those odds.
Posted by Lucas at 05:31 PM