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November 20, 2009

Adventures In Righteousness

Headline:

Wainwright Got Jobbed In Cy Young Voting by Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Assertion:

"Many baseball writers downplayed the value of actually winning games, since [Tim] Lincecum won just 15 times with a decent supporting team."

Facts:

Run Support Per Game:
Lincecum: 4.57
Wainwright: 5.52

Assertion:

"Personally, I was in the Wainwright camp. He went the distance for the Cardinals last season. He was their horse. He shouldered large pitch counts and worked deep into games."

Facts:

Innings and Pitches per Start:
Lincecum: 7.0 IP, 107 pitches
Wainwright: 6.9 IP, 106 pitches

I should note that Gordon’s assertion in this case wasn’t intended to promote Wainwright over Lincecum but rather Chris Carpenter. Wainwright did make two more starts than Lincecum (not a trivial matter since both teams were in the playoff hunt) but pitched only eight more innings.

Assertion:

"Lincecum pitched at Carpenter’s pace, with many more strikeouts, over the long haul. But he faded, going 1-3 with a 3.50 ERA in September. Wainwright went wire to wire for his team."

Facts:

--
Lincecum
Wainwright
Starts
5
6
IP/Start
7.4
6.7
RA
3.38
3.83
ERA
3.38
3.38
Oppo. Line
.195/.295/.301
.259/.298/.373
WHIP
1.19
1.2
SO Rate
30%
28%
Personal Record
2-3
3-1
Team Record
2-3
3-3
Run Support / Game
3.8
5.8

Actually, Lincecum and Wainwright were remarkably similar down the stretch. Also, Lincecum’s K rate of 30% during September/October was slightly higher than during April through August.

Assertion:

"Had the Cardinals not spit up Wainwright’s 20th victory -– blowing a five-run lead in the process -- perhaps the voting would have gone much differently. Perhaps that would have earned Adam some additional first-place votes and some more seconds as well."

Facts:

Well, there's nothing factual to discuss, but I agree with him. 20 wins probably would have swayed enough voters to hand Wainwright the Cy Young. However, and this is critical, the bullpen's inability to hold the lead is irrelevant to Wainwright's performance that day. He's not any better or worse because his teammates spit the bit.

Conclusion:

Lincecum and Wainwright were very evenly matched. (I’d rank Carpenter a hair below them because of his lower innings.) The vote reflected this. Nobody got jobbed.

Posted by Lucas at November 20, 2009 02:54 PM