The Ranger Rundown: Fantasy Baseball Archives

February 03, 2012

Hardball Times Fantasy Forecasts and Josh Hamilton

Every year, the Hardball Times publishes player forecasts for the upcoming season. They hire folks to write comments about notable players, and for the third or fourth year (I lose track), I've written about the Rangers. From me, you'll find commentary about the entire 40-man roster plus 20 others including elite prospects who've reached full-season ball (meaning nothing about #TheLegend… sorry), AAA'ers who might see Arlington this season, and other upper-level minor leaguers who deserve mention. 4,624 words, to be exact.

Admittedly, if you follow the Rangers closely, you probably don't need to know my thoughts about established players like Ian Kinsler or Mike Adams. You know what they're going to do. But, for each team, HBT hires a different writer with expertise on "his" particular team, and you can learn volumes from them. I believe HBT is previewing the comments on the "World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals" for free. I suppose I would have been the freebie if… you know. I command you to check it out.

Because it dovetails with current events, here's my take on Josh Hamilton sent to the editors on Tuesday:

Hamilton is a superstar carrying some heavy baggage. He's a strong fielder and elite hitter with two MVP-worthy seasons in four years as a Ranger. He obliterates righties and hit well on the road. His story of redemption and overt yet humble expressions of faith have elevated him to rock-star status in Texas. The downside: he's older than you might think (31 in May), and how his scorched-earth early twenties have aged his body is anyone's guess. In five years, he's missed 184 games while on the disabled list and probably played hurt in the same number. He and the Rangers have discussed a long-term extension, but Texas has to be brooding over his future value and whether to let him walk.

I don't have much to add about the current situation. It's discouraging, but it's not the end of the world. Not that I have any expertise on addiction and recovery (never been down that road myself, although I have friends who have), but it's a process, not an event. As to whether Hamilton should have held a press conference, I would have been amazed if he'd declined. Hamilton has always carried out his recovery -- and concurrently, his relationship with God -- very publicly. My feeling is his public acts of contrition help him stay on path.* If you prefer a more cynical, PR take on the situation, he has to frame the situation to his advantage as quickly as possible. People love themselves some redemption stories.

I also think this latest mishap proves the power of addiction over him. He knows taking a drink in public is going to dominate the news, jeopardize his livelihood (indeed, his life, if he really falls off the wagon), greatly embarrass himself and his family, and put his teammates and employers in an awkward situation. Yet he drinks anyway. I hope he gets back on the path.

* I know: armchair psychiatry.

Spiritualized, "The Twelve Steps," from Let It Come Down, 2001

Posted by Lucas at 07:48 PM

April 01, 2005

2005 BBFL Fantasy League Draft

On March 31, the 20 owners of the BBFL held their annual draft. In 2003, I finished fourth in the regular season and won the playoff championship. Last year, I finished eighth in the standings and ninth in the playoffs.

Owners keep five players from the 2004 rosters but may not hold them for more than three seasons. Scoring is 6x6 (AVG, OBP, SLG, R, RBI, SB // IP, W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K/BB), and owners who think in terms of typical 5x5 leagues would tend to overrate players like Alfonso Soriano (low OBP) and Kerry Wood (tons of striekouts but an unexceptional K/BB ratio).

My draft:

Pos	Player	Round	Pick
2B	J. Kent	keeper	x
OF	A. Rowand	keeper	x
RP	F. Cordero	keeper	x
SP	P. Martínez	keeper	x
1B	D. Ortiz	keeper	x
SP	J. Lieber	6	13
1B/OF	B. Wilkerson	7	27
OF	M. Bradley	8	53
SP	J. Weaver	9	67
OF	R. Hidalgo	10	93
3B	M. Ensberg	11	107
SP	J. Thomson	12	133
OF	E. Byrnes	13	147
C/3B	B. Inge	14	173
P	J. Suppan	15	187
SS	J. Bartlett	16	213
RP	B. Donnelly	17	227
RP	K. Gregg	18	253
SS	O. Vizquel	19	267
1B/3B	C. Tracy	20	293
OF	J. González	21	307
P	A. Reyes	22	333
P	S. Trachsel	23	347
1B/2B/3B	M. Lamb	24	373
P	L. Carter	25	387
Pos	Player	Round	Pick
C/3B	B. Inge	14	173
1B	D. Ortiz	keeper	x
2B	J. Kent	keeper	x
3B	M. Ensberg	11	107
SS	J. Bartlett	16	213
CI	B. Wilkerson	7	27
MI	O. Vizquel	19	267
OF	A. Rowand	keeper	x
OF	M. Bradley	8	53
OF	R. Hidalgo	10	93
OF	E. Byrnes	13	147
UT	C. Tracy	20	293
UT	M. Lamb	24	373
SP	P. Martínez	keeper	x
SP	J. Lieber	6	13
SP	J. Weaver	9	67
SP	J. Thomson	12	133
RP	F. Cordero	keeper	x
RP	B. Donnelly	17	227
RP	K. Gregg	18	253
P	J. Suppan	15	187
P	A. Reyes	22	333
P	L. Carter	25	387
Bench/DL	J. González	21	307
Bench/DL	S. Trachsel	23	347

I did not mean to draft Lieber first. I had him ranked at the top of my list, thanks to his off-the-chart K/BB ratio, but I'd planned to get a hitter. Still, I'm not overly disappointed. As with the Ranger Bordie draft, I went heavy on outfielders early. I intended to ignore most middle relievers but ended up with four anyway. Trachsel was a flat-out mistake; I hit the wrong button. Nevertheless, I can stick him on the DL and pick up someone else, as is the case with my intentional choice of the injured Juan Gonzalez in the 20th round.

Posted by Lucas at 12:31 PM

March 26, 2005

"Boardie League" Draft, March 24, 2005

The ESPN Boardie League held its draft on Thursday. Seventeen owners took part. As the defending champ, I am the commissioner this year. Bascially, I set up the league and told everyone to show up at the right time. Tough work.

This league has some odd parameters. First, it's a 6x6 league. OBP and slugging replace batting average, and innings are added to the typical categories in a 5x5 league. Second, three of the four outfielders must fit a left/center/right designation. Third, no bench. Every player drafted is active.

I was reasonably pleased with my results. I wanted Jim Edmonds in the second round but settled for Sheffield when the owner before me snagged Edmonds. The same owner drafted CF Aaron Rowand just before me, but I was satisfied to pick Preston Wilson in the following round. My choice of Latroy Hawkins in the 12th round seemed to cause the most frustration among other owners.