The Ranger Rundown: January 2013 Archives

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January 25, 2013

Weekend Photo

A long-abandoned section of Route 66 west of Albuquerque, right about here, 20 March 2010.

Posted by Lucas at 09:28 PM

January 17, 2013

Harrison's Vesting Option

Tonight, Matt Harrison signed a five-year contract, giving him $5mm in 2013 followed by $8mm and three years of $13mm. By my quick calculations ($4.5mm/WAR in 2012, 5% inflation, which may be conservative given the explosion in cable rights fees), Harrison needs to average about 2.1 WAR annually to break even. That's not quite true, as the first two years are arbitration-controlled, but the point holds that he can pay off with relatively modest production relative to the 4.1 WAR he's averaged during the past two years. Of course, signing any pitcher for five years is risky, but this risk is manageable, I'd say.

As for that 2018 option, which vests if he pitches at least 200 innings in each of 2015-2017: That's a tall order. Here's the complete list of pitchers achieving that during 2010-2012:

Felix Hernandez -- 715.3 total innings
Justin Verlander -- 713.7
James Shields -- 680.3
CC Sabathia -- 675.0
Clayton Kershaw -- 665.3
Matt Cain -- 664.3
Cliff Lee -- 656.0
David Price -- 644.0
Cole Hamels -- 640.0
C.J. Wilson -- 629.7
Mark Buehrle -- 618.0

I hope the option doesn't create a perverse incentive down the road, such as Harrison neglecting to rest an injury properly in order to reach the vesting goal. The Rangers can, of course, exercise the option anyway, which they'll do if he's anywhere near league-average even with a meager 180 innings in 2017.

Posted by Lucas at 01:44 AM

January 09, 2013

One Way of Looking at Michael Young's Future

This is a companion piece to my upcoming annual (and probably final) update on Michael Young's quest for 3,000 hits.

Michael Young was an astonishing 2.4 wins below replacement per the methodology of Baseball Reference (only -1.4 per Fangraphs). Here's every player I could find since WWII aged between 33-35, playing in at least 100 games and posting a WAR of -1.9 or below (that is, no more than 0.5 better than Young). They're ranked by career WAR entering the fateful season.

Player	Age	WAR	Slash Stats, OPS+	Career WAR entering season	Following Season's PA	Following Season's WAR	Total PA After That Season	Total WAR After That Season	Seasons Played After That Season
Ted Simmons	34	(2.8)	.221/.269/.300, 61	49.6	592	0.8	1059	-0.1	4
Michael Young	35	(2.4)	.277/.312/.370, 78	24.5	?	?	?	?	?
Carlos Lee	34	(2.4)	.246/.291/.417, 91	23.6	653	3.7	1268	3.3	2
George Bell	33	(2.7)	.217/.243/.363, 63	19.7	0	0	0	0	0
Jermaine Dye	33	(1.9)	.254/.317/.486, 105	16.2	645	2.4	1219	2.2	2
Jeffrey Leonard	34	(2.0)	.251/.305/.356, 85	7.2	0	0	0	0	0
Deron Johnson	34	(2.4)	.239/.300/.388, 92	7.0	608	-0.5	663	-1	2
Sean Berry	33	(2.2)	.228/.281/.301, 49	7.0	54	-0.8	54	-0.8	1
Pedro Feliz	35	(2.5)	.218/.240/.293, 45	6.3	0	0	0	0	0
Tony Womack	35	(2.4)	.249/.276/.280, 50	2.7	70	0.2	70	0.2	1
Mike Kingery	35	(2.1)	.246/.304/.337, 67	1.8	0	0	0	0	0
Tony Womack	33	(1.9)	.235/.250/.314, 46	1.6	606	3	1037	0.8	3
Greg Dobbs	33	(2.1)	.285/.313/.386, 89	(1.4)	?	?	?	?	?

The three obvious takeaways:

1) They're rare. Young's 2012 was highly unusual, if not unique. Finding players with negative value is easy, but most were exceptionally bad over a shorter period of time and relieved of their duties in-season. Far less common is a slow, steady, season-long stream of sub-replacement production.

2) Many of these guys weren't outstanding to begin with, or at least not as good as they might have seemed. Young has enjoyed a better career than everyone but Simmons, the giant outlier.

3) Their subsequent careers were often non-existent, usually short, and very rarely productive. In many cases, the player's contractual situation dictated subsequent use, at least to an extent. Let's discuss:

Entering 1984, Simmons re-signed with the Brewers as a free agent for three years at $1 million per plus a team option for the same figure. He promptly produced his worst big-league season. Given what he was owed (significant for the time) and typically a very strong hitter, he was obviously going to receive ample opportunity to bounce back. So he did, if not completely: .273/.342/.402, 12 homers, very nice for a catcher. Nice enough that Milwaukee exercised its option, but the Brewers would soon trade him to Atlanta, where he lasted three seasons as a part-timer with marginal returns.

Lee produced all of 7.2 WAR for the $100 million Houston paid him during 2007-2012. As I recall, the Rangers, who'd traded for the impending free agent the previous summer, weren't especially keen on an extension, instead preferring the draft compensation. Certainly, they weren't going to match Houston's offer, widely viewed as largesse for someone of his, ah, particular athleticism and defensive prowess. Lee produced the season in question during the fourth year of his contract, and Houston was committed to two more years and a whopping $37.5 million. He recovered reasonably well in 2011 before settling into garden-variety badness last year as an Astro and Marlin. He is currently seeking an employer.

Bell, a full-time DH during his dismal 1993, became a free agent and never played again. Bell hit .258/.294/.363 after turning 30.

RF Jermaine Dye's terrible WAR was entirely related to defense. The advanced metrics never enjoyed him in the field but were especially annoyed in 2007 (-3.1 dWAR). Dye had two years and $22 million remaining and earned a chunk of it, clubbing 61 homers along with a .340 OBP in 2008-2009. He certainly could have played for at least one more year, probably more, if not for salary demands that scared off his suitors.

Jeffrey Leonard posted a .296 OBP in over 3,000 plate appearances after turning 29 but maintained a career with enough power and speed to seem impressive. He'd produced seasons of -1.2 WAR in 1985 (Age 29) and 1988 (32) before bottoming out in 1990. The free agent couldn't secure a Major League contract thereafter, settling for Kansas City's AAA squad before retiring.

Deron Johnson was a free agent after his rough 1974, not because his contract expired, but because the Red Sox released him. At the time, baseball's reserve clause still held sway. Johnson signed with the White Sox and essentially repeated his high-power, low-OBP output. Traded back to Boston, he lasted a handful of games into 1976 before his final release.

Berry signed an odd two-year deal prior to 1999 that guaranteed a flat $1 million that year and $2.35 million the next. The latter money was quite princely for a part-timer turning 34, but Berry had hit well during most of the prior six seasons. Two weeks into the next season, Berry stopped hitting, forever. Grudgingly retained as a pinch-hitter in 2001, Berry tallied only 54 plate appearances in 62 games before Milwaukee finally swallowed his contract. The remainder of his professional career consisted of one game for the Red Sox and a few for three different AAA teams.

Feliz was reasonably valuable at his peak of his defensive skills and power, compensating for his truly dreadful plate discipline. That wasn't the case by 2010, by which time Houston inexplicably threw $5 million at a player coming off a fifth consecutive season with an OPS+ of 85 or worse. The Astros traded him for a middle reliever that August. Without a contract entering 2011, he spent most of the last two seasons in indy ball. As of last August, he remained hopeful of another shot at MLB.

Womack lasted 13 seasons, earned over $20 million and posted a career WAR of 0.5. Strange that he never played for the Royals. Womack earned $6 million and was traded twice during his Age 33 debacle, after which he humbly signed with the Cards for a paltry $300,000. A career year at the plate (.307/.349/.385) spawned a two-year, $4 million deal with the Yankees, whereupon he immediately reverted to lesser form.

CF Mike Kingery gets a gold star for resurrecting his career at Age 33 after spending most of the previous five years as a bench player or in AAA. Only once did he qualify for the batting title, during strike-shortened 1994. Kingery parlayed two good seasons in Colorado into a two-year, $1.5 million deal with Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, his revival stalled immediately and he lost his starting role within two months. The Pirates released Kingery the next spring. Eating his $750,000 appears trivial, but he was their third-highest paid player at the time, under OF Al Martin ($2.4mm) and SS Kevin Elster ($1.65mm), whose signing forced Kingery from the roster. Oh, the Pirates.

Dobbs is a pinch-hitter pressed into more active duty by Miami's roster shuffling. Prior to 2012, the Marlins signed him to a two-year, $3 million deal for no good reason, whereupon he produced a season worthy of this list.

Incidentally, the only 36-year-old fitting my criteria was Kevin Bass, a true utility player who hadn't qualified for the batting title since the age of 29. His -1.9 WAR 1995 was his last.

I don't think there's a firm conclusion to draw from this exercise. I certainly wouldn't make a distinct prediction of his 2013 WAR based on this info. Young's career has been unusual; good comps are hard to find. Still, I found it interesting. If anything, the conclusion is that getting old sucks, and no one is spared.

Posted by Lucas at 01:27 AM

January 08, 2013

Return of the Photo of the Week

Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Julio Borbon from the 2007 Fall Instructionals in Surprise:

Posted by Lucas at 11:59 PM

Testing 1-2-3

I've neglected my site for a long time. I can't pinpoint the last time I wrote anything substantial because an SQL upgrade damaged my archive, which displays nothing between April 2011 and October 2012. I haven't been that inattentive; see here and here. So, I'll try once again to post more regularly, if still not all that frequently. I like reviewing what I wrote in the past to see if I made any sense.