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January 25, 2012
Darvish and Texas History
My projection for the WAR Yu Darvish needs to generate to justify his contract:
Year | $ | $/WAR | Required WAR |
2011 | -- | 4.50 | -- |
2012 | 58.0 | 4.73 | 12.28 |
2013 | 10.3 | 4.96 | 2.08 |
2014 | 10.8 | 5.21 | 2.07 |
2015 | 10.8 | 5.47 | 1.97 |
2016 | 10.8 | 5.74 | 1.88 |
2017 | 11.0 | 6.03 | 1.82 |
TOTAL | 111.7 | -- | 22.10 |
Assumptions:
- Posting fee included in full in 2012
- $800,000 annual bonus for avoiding DL achieved
- No early departure
- $4.50mm/WAR in 2011 (per Fangraphs calculations), 5% annual increases
How would 22.1 WAR by Darvish rank in Ranger history, which contains its share of elite pitchers but few who stayed long enough to generate eye-catching WAR totals?
Name | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
Kenny Rogers | 528 | 252 | 1,909 | 4.16 | 4.25 | 31.6 |
Charlie Hough | 344 | 313 | 2,308 | 3.68 | 4.21 | 27.1 |
Kevin Brown | 187 | 186 | 1,278 | 3.81 | 3.71 | 23.9 |
Bobby Witt | 276 | 269 | 1,680 | 4.85 | 4.33 | 23.4 |
Fergie Jenkins | 197 | 190 | 1,410 | 3.56 | 3.58 | 23.1 |
Nolan Ryan | 129 | 129 | 840 | 3.43 | 2.91 | 22.6 |
YU DARVISH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.1? |
7th, a fair amount behind Rogers and Hough and nearly equal to the other four. Among other big contracts, Kevin Millwood (4 and $48 plus a $12 vesting option) ranks 13th at 13.8 WAR. Chan Ho Park (5 and $65) ranks a cool 55th with 3.6, same as John Butcher and Senator holdover Jackie Brown.
Texas's posting fee for Darvish was less than $4 million below its entire 2010 payroll.
Cheap Trick, "Stiff Competition," from Heaven Tonight, 1978.
Posted by Lucas at January 25, 2012 02:08 AM