The Ranger Rundown: July 2008 Archives

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July 31, 2008

Eric Hurley's Fastball

Last Sunday was really ugly:

Average FB Velocity, 1st 4 starts: 90.5
Average FB Velocity, July 27: 86.2

80% Velocity Range, 1st 4 starts: 88.6-92.5
80% Velocity Range, July 27: 85.0-87.4

Posted by Lucas at 07:40 PM

July 26, 2008

Can Nelson Cruz Play Major League Baseball?

Acquired from Milwaukee as part of the Carlos Lee trade, Nelson Cruz provided scant evidence of being a Major League-caliber hitter in nearly 500 plate appearances during 2006-2007. Despite a another terrific season in AAA in 2007 (.352/.428/.698), he couldn’t crack the big-league roster this spring, and he then suffered the indignity of being unclaimed on waivers.

Since then, he’s enjoying one of the most dominant AAA seasons in recent memory. Concurrent with Marlon Byrd continuing to bat 5th or 6th despite a line 247/.327/.384, calls for another chance in the Majors have amplified from a murmur to a dull roar.

Can Nelson Cruz have a belatedly successful Major League career? Cruz turned 28 on July 1, although he’s classified as a 27-year-old in terms of the 2008 season. One method of answering this question is to compare him to other successful minor-league hitters in the same age group. We don’t want young, top prospects or greybeards. We’re looking at the guys on the fringe: failed/injured prospects and “never-weres” who suddenly erupted.

I compiled every season between 1992-2008 in which a AAA hitter aged 26-28 produced at least one of the following:

30 homers
A .600 slugging percentage (minimum 350 appearances)
>100 Runs Created (a Bill James stat measuring overall performance)

I found 51 such players (note that 2008 stats are pro-rated) and compared them to Cruz in terms of a variety of stats including rates for all extra-base hits, homers alone, walks, strikeouts, steals, and batting average. Here they are, ranked from most to least similar to Cruz:

1. Dwayne Hosey, OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Dwayne Hosey	1994	27	OF	OMA	KCR	467	.333	.420	.628	27	12.4%	5.8%	13.1%	18.2%	9.6

Note: RC/G = Runs Created per Game, indicative of number of runs nine Nelson Cruz's would score.

Which of these events is not like the others?

January 1989: Released by Chicago White Sox
May 1991: Released by Oakland
December 1991: Selected by San Diego in minor-league phase of Rule 5 draft
October 1993: Granted free agency
August 1995: Selected off waivers by Boston
October 3, 1995: Started in CF and led off 1995 American League Division Series

Entering 1994, Dwayne Hosey was a thrice-released outfielder with just enough power and speed to secure continued employment, if only the itinerant kind. Despite seven years of experience, Hosey had logged only 32 games in AAA before his career-best outburst. Still, Hosey found himself in Omaha again in 1995. He was batting .295/.363/.535 with 12 homers and 15 steals when the Red Sox selected him off waivers on August 31.

Injected into the starting lineup almost immediately, Hosey batted .338/.408/.618 in September and stole the starting CF job from Lee Tinsley (who was batting a respectable-for-the-position .284/.359/.402). On the evening of October 3, Hosey found himself in the batter’s box for the first pitch of the ALDS against Cleveland’s Dennis Martinez.

Hosey went 0-12 with two walks in the series. Boston traded Tinsley in the offseason, seemingly insuring everyday play for Hosey, but injuries and ineffectiveness (.218/.282/.333) soon forced him back to the minors. The man who led off the ALDS in 1995 would play his last MLB game only eight months later.

2. Micah Franklin , OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Micah Franklin	1998	26	OF	IWA	CHC	418	.329	.423	.655	5	13.6%	6.9%	14.1%	17.2%	10.4

Franklin was a 3rd-round selection (90th overall) by the Mets, who released him after two lackluster seasons in short-season leagues. Franklin hit 51 homers during the next two years, becoming enough of a prospect to warrant a late 1994 trade to Pittsburgh for Brian Hunter (the slow guy with some power, not the speed demon).

Franklin was claimed off waivers by Detroit in 1995 and traded to traded to St. Louis in 1996. Entering 1997, he’d hit 94 homers in the previous four years. He finally got a taste of the Majors that May and batted .324/.378/.500 in 27 plate appearances. It wasn’t enough to stick, and the Cardinals released him even before the season ended.

In 1998, at the age of 26 and with his 5th organization, Franklin had his career year. Chicago nevertheless declined to add him to its 40-man roster. Rather than hope for another chance to be a 5th outfielder somewhere, Franklin moved to Japan and batted .238/.348/.502 with 23 homers for the Nippon Ham Fighters in 1999. He appears to have suffered an injury plagued season in 2000, and in 2001 he returned to the US. After three more modestly successful seasons among four teams, he was done at the age of 32.

3. Calvin Pickering, 1B

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Calvin Pickering	2004	27	1B	OMA	KCR	369	.314	.444	.712	0	13.0%	9.5%	19.0%	23.0%	11.6

As a 21-year-old in 1998, Pickering batted .309/.425/.566 with 31 homers for AA Bowie. Nevertheless, the Orioles traded for 33-year-old Jeff Conine to man first and retained 40-year-old Harold Baines as the DH. Injuries and perhaps discouragement led to two lackluster seasons in AAA. During a third and better AAA campaign in 2001, Baltimore waived him, and division-rival Boston placed the winning claim.

Another injury prevented Pickering from taking the field with the Red Sox. He spent 2003 with the Mariners (cut in Spring Training), a Mexican team, and Cincinnati (cut after the season).

As an Omaha Royal in 2004, Pickering produced one of the best power surges in recent years, hitting 35 homers in 92 games and slugging .712. He received his first lengthy trial in the Majors and batted .246/.338/.500 with another seven homers in 35 games.

Come 2005, Pickering was shipped back to Omaha after just seven games (.148/.226/.259). The Royals gave most of their 1B at-bats to 37-year-old Matt Stairs. Not that Stairs was a bad player, but the Royals were dead last in the AL homers and lost 102 games. If Pickering were a total bust, then the Royals lose… 105? So what. The Royals also bestowed significant playing time to the likes of Joe McEwing, Denny Hocking, and especially Terrence Long. Just a stupidly, stupidly assembled and operated club.

Anyway… Pickering batted .275/.384/.528 with another 23 homers in Omaha. He spent 2006 in Korea and has logged some time in the independent leagues lately.

4. Dallas McPherson, 3B

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Dallas McPherson	2008	27	1B	ABQ	FLA	389	.294	.404	.666	12	12.6%	8.7%	15.4%	30.8%	10.0

Drafted 57th overall in 2001, McPherson quickly established himself as a premier hitting talent. McPherson batted .310/.401/.596 between high-A and AA as a 22-year-old, after which Baseball America ranked him the 33rd best prospect in baseball. He topped himself in 2004, blasting 40 homers and slugging .670, and jumped to 12th on BA’s list. Still, even with Anaheim 3B Troy Glaus frequently injured, McPherson didn’t receive more than a brief look in the Majors.

With Glaus gone in 2005, McPherson had a full-time gig but couldn’t take advantage. His walk-strikeout ratio had decayed as he climbed the minors, and in Anaheim it collapsed. That and injuries limited him to 101 games and a .296 on-base percentage through 2006. He missed the entire 2007 season with back problems, and the Angels non-tendered him last December.

McPherson signed with the Marlins, but new injuries prevented him from making the club. Now healthy and in the extremely hitter-friendly environment of Albuquerque, McPherson is presently battling Nelson Cruz for the most homers in professional baseball. Too bad Florida doesn’t have a DH. His 32% strikeout rate and good-but-not-great-for-Albq .294 average call into question whether he’ll make enough contact to succeed in the Majors, but he’ll definitely get another chance.

5. Felipe Crespo, 1B/OF

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Felipe Crespo	1999	26	1B	FRN	SFG	463	.332	.445	.616	17	12.1%	5.2%	16.8%	15.8%	10.1

Crespo was drafted 95th overall in 1991 by the Blue Jays as a 2B with good contact and OBP skills. Crespo advanced to AAA by 1995 and played in 34 games for Toronto during 1996-1997.

Of the ten players with seasons most similar to Nelson Cruz, Crespo is one of only three to spend an entire season in the Majors (the others are Brian Daubach and Lee Stevens). Unfortunately for Crespo, he’d switched nearly full time to the outfield and had no chance of supplanting Toronto’s young and spry trio of Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz Jr., and Shawn Green (this was 1998, remember). Crespo had 153 plate appearances in 66 games and batted .262/.342/.362, admirable considering the often lengthy gaps between at-bats.

Toronto released Crespo during 1999’s Spring Training. As a 26-year-old Fresno Grizzly, he inexplicably thumped 24 homers and slugged .616. He previous bests were 13 and .493. In 2000, he again lasted an entire year in the Majors as an infrequently used 1B/OF, batting .290/.351/.443.

In 2001, he abruptly stopped making contact, perhaps party due to plantar fasciitis. Crespo fluttered through Philadelphia, Japan’s Yomuiri, and AAA Louisville before retiring at Age 31 in 2004.

6-10:

Player	Year	Age	Pos	Team	Affil.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	XBH%	HR%	BB%	SO%	RC/G
Nelson Cruz	2008	27	OF	OKL	TEX	388	.342	.441	.723	21	13.7%	8.8%	14.4%	20.1%	12.2
Brian Daubach	1998	26	OF	CHL	FLA	577	.316	.411	.634	9	14.6%	6.1%	13.9%	19.8%	9.7
Joe Dillon	2004	28	3B	ABQ	FLA	449	.325	.394	.665	12	15.6%	6.7%	10.2%	18.9%	9.8
Jose Fernandez	2001	26	3B	SLK	ANA	507	.338	.410	.624	9	13.4%	5.9%	10.8%	17.9%	9.5
Lee Stevens	1996	28	1B	OKC	TEX	489	.325	.405	.643	3	14.5%	6.5%	11.9%	18.4%	9.9
Roberto Petagine	1998	27	1B	IND	CIN	433	.331	.439	.617	3	12.7%	5.5%	16.2%	16.4%	10.2

The list improves for Nelson Cruz at this point. Brian Daubach and Lee Stevens both had a respectable stretch of 4-5 years after their breakout AAA seasons. Petagine was Big In Japan for five years, Fernandez for three. Dillon’s one season with Yomuiri was a disaster.

11-50:

11. Derrick White, 1998, Age 28	32. Brad Eldred, 2008, Age 28
12. Fernando Seguignol, 2003, Age 26	33. Robin Jennings, 2000, Age 28
13. Roberto Petagine, 1997, Age 27	34. D.T. Cromer, 1999, Age 26
14. Harvey Pulliam, 1995, Age 26	35. Nigel Wilson, 1996, Age 28
15. Bubba Crosby, 2003, Age 26	36. Graham Koonce, 2003, Age 26
16. Scott McClain, 1998, Age 26	37. Damon Minor, 2000, Age 27
17. Jim Tatum, 1994, Age 27	38. Chad Mottola, 1999, Age 26
18. Andy Green, 2005, Age 26	39. Doug Mientkiewicz, 2000, Age 28
19. George Arias, 1998, Age 27	40. Brian Raabe, 1996, Age 27
20. David McCarty, 1997, Age 28	41. Julio Zuleta, 2002, Age 26
21. Chad Mottola, 2000, Age 27	42. Josh Whitesell, 2008, Age 27
22. Luke Scott, 2005, Age 28	43. Rick Ankiel, 2007, Age 28
23. Val Pascucci, 2007, Age 27	44. Earl Snyder, 2004, Age 27
24. Eddie Zambrano, 1993, Age 26	45. Phil Hiatt, 1996, Age 27
25. Matt Diaz, 2004, Age 28	46. Jack Cust, 2006, Age 26
26. Kevin Witt, 2004, Age 26	47. Rod McCall, 1998, Age 28
27. Jamie D'Antona, 2008, Age 27	48. Jonathan Van Every, 2008, Age 27
28. Craig Brazell, 2007, Age 26	49. Ron Coomer, 1994, Age 28
29. Terrmel Sledge, 2003, Age 27	50. Mark Saccomanno, 2008, Age 28
30. Calvin Murray, 1999, Age 27	51. Drew Denson, 1994, Age
31. Jon Knott, 2006, Age 27	.

Conclusions:

Truly a mixed bag. Cruz’s 2008 compares favorably to a couple of guys who earned some MLB coin (Stevens and Daubach), several players who’ve succeeded at advanced ages for various reasons (Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Jack Cust), a contemporary hoping for another chance (McPherson)… and no fewer than two dozen AAAA All-Stars.

That said, Cruz is in many respects dissimilar to most players on the list. Some were already sedentary 1Bs or DHs, and few had his combination of speed, power and defensive prowess. Of the 52 players studied, Cruz ranks 1st in slugging and Runs Created per game, 2nd in home run rate, and 4th in OBP. With over a month remaining in the season, he already ranks 5th in homers and 4th in steals. Forget his age: Cruz could finish 2008 with one of the best AAA seasons in the past 17 years, period. To an extent, the operative measure isn’t “players most similar to Cruz statistically” but “players almost as good as Cruz statistically.”

On the other hand, we’ve been down this road. As mentioned, Cruz hit the cover off the ball for the Redhawks in 2007, and he has a career minor-league line of .298/.368/.540.

Cruz’s administrative status is also a huge hurdle. Traded or not, he can declare free agency if not placed on a 40-man roster after the season. Texas, or someone, will have to make a real commitment. Despite his amazing season, I’m skeptical that anyone will. Come 2009, Cruz may find himself in a new team’s Spring training facility on a minor-league deal. Or Japan.

Posted by Lucas at 03:52 PM

July 25, 2008

Weekend Photo

Route 66 near Seligman, Arizona, 24 March 2008

Posted by Lucas at 01:45 AM

July 18, 2008

PitchFX On Eric Hurley: Pitch Location And Results

Eric Hurley allowed homers at a 4.4% rate in 75 AAA innings, nearly double the league average. In four MLB starts, his homer rate is 3.2%, better but still sub-par. The book on Hurley is his tendency to work high in the zone (or his inability to work low, if you prefer) results in too many fly balls, hence too many homers and other hard-hit balls.

With PitchFX, we can examine the relationship between his pitch location and opponents’ success at the plate. In this case, I’m focusing solely on balls hit into play (including homers), of which there are 75. One was a bunt single, and two have no pitch data, leaving 72 balls for study.

Caveat: Hurley hasn’t pitched enough to generate respectable sample sizes. I’m doing this exercise because I think it’s interesting, but how he’s performed so far doesn’t necessarily portend his future.

The split between high and low pitches is exactly 36:36. As shown in the graph, a few hitters have hit a ball into play on a pitch higher than the top of the strike zone, while no hitter has done so on a pitch below the bottom of the zone.

1. What type of pitch is crossing the plate high or low?

As expected, most of the high pitches are fastballs, and the low pitches contain a heavier proportion of sliders.

Pitch Height	FA	SL	CH
< 2.6'	50%	39%	9%
> 2.6'	69%	19%	11%

2. Are high pitches resulting in more fly balls?

Yes. The vertical midrange of the strike zone of hitters faced by Hurley is 2.52 feet. At 2.60 feet is a pretty strong delineation in fly ball tendency:

Pitch Height	Grounder	Line Drive	OF Fly	IF Fly
< 2.6'	33%	31%	33%	3%
> 2.6'	11%	14%	64%	11%

The ratio for all pitches is 22% grounders, 22% line drives, 48% outfield flies, and 8% infield flies.

3. Are high pitches resulting in more hits?

More home runs, yes (two on high strikes, one low). More hits, no. Opponents are batting a meager .194 when making contact on high strikes and a robust .389 on low strikes. The corresponding slugging percentages are .389 and .667.

What’s hurting Hurley most so far is a 31% line drive rate on low pitches. Opponents are batting .727 and slugging 1.000 on those liners, which sounds absurdly high but is actually near the average for the league.

Conversely, opponents are also hitting only .130 (3-for-23) on fly balls on high pitches. He’s also generated four infield flies (nearly as surely an out as a strikeout) on high pitches, only one on a low pitch.

So, Hurley should ditch the slider and concentrate on heat up in the zone where it’s safe.

Just kidding. Hurley can’t expect to turn 87% of high-strike flies into outs in the long run. Several pitchers (for example, Scott Kazmir, Rich Harden, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver) are succeeding with very low ground ball rates, but they also have extremely high strikeout rates (Kazmir, Harden) or are no worse than above-average both in walks and Ks (Baker, Weaver).

At present, Hurley has a respectable walk rate (7.4%) but a below-average strikeout rate (12.6%), and 70% of his balls in play have been liners or outfield flies. Despite his 3.57 ERA, that’s a pretty toxic brew. He’ll need some combination of more strikeouts and more grounders to succeed in the long run.

Posted by Lucas at 05:42 PM

Oklahoma vs. Round Rock, 13-14 July 2008

Brian Gordon

Jason Ellison

Jared Hyatt, with Chris Shelton in background

Jason Ellison, Kea Kometani and Taylor Teagarden (top to bottom)

Taylor Teagarden and Wes Littleton

Posted by Lucas at 04:35 PM

July 14, 2008

Some Quick Research on C.J. Wilson

33 MLB relievers have received at least 10 save opportunities in 2008. Here's how C.J. Wilson ranks in various categories:

Category		Rank
Average	.258	25
On-Base Percentage	.348	25
Slugging Percentage	.422	26
WHIP	1.57	27
HR %	0.8%	24
BB+HBP %	12.3%	24
SO %	19.3%	22
Pitches / Batter	4.1	22
Pitches / Inning	18.7	29

How Wilson ranks when facing his first batter:

Category		Rank
Average	.293	24
On-Base Percentage	.341	22
Slugging Percentage	.537	31

Based on a comparison of Wilson's peripheral stats to the other 32 relievers, the following closers are having seasons most similar to Wilson in 2008 (from most to least simlar):

J. Isringhausen
R. Franklin
B. Wilson
G. Sherrill
J. Valverde
M. Corpas
B. Ryan
S. Torres

And the least similar relievers:

M. Rivera
J. Soria
B. Morrow
J. Papelbon
B. Wagner
J. Nathan
B. Lidge
B. Jenks

Regarding Wilson’s personality: His flamboyance and occasional indifference to PR protocols will always make him an outsized target of affection when he’s performing well. Conversely, when he’s faltering, his comments/hair/hobbies/etc. will face extreme ridicule. This can be expressed algebraically as follows:

P = Performance [range of 0-10, 5 = average]
WL = Wilson Love [infinitely positive or negative, measured in picocuries]

WL = ( P – 5 ) x Modifier,

where Modifier > 1

I have yet to define this modifier numerically. It might be exponential rather than multiplicative.

Posted by Lucas at 06:01 PM