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September 16, 2006

More On Mayberry

Yesterday I mentioned that John Mayberry had performed better than his line of .268/.358/.479 would suggest because of the low-offense context of the Midwest League. Mayberry ranked sixteenth in on-base percentage, sixth in slugging, and third in homers among MWL qualifiers.

Only 26 Midwest League batters (an average of two per team) finished with an OPS of .750 or higher. Eleven of those 26 were drafted out of college in 2005. John Mayberry is the only first rounder. The others were drafted in the 3rd, 7th, 9th, 10th, 12th (3 players), 16th, 17th, and 18th rounds.

Interestingly, three of the MWL’s 26 top hitters were drafted prior to Mayberry in 2005: Justin Upton (#1), Cameron Maybin (#10) and Jay Bruce (#12). All were drafted out of high school and are nineteen years old. Nothing Texas could do about them, certainly.

So where are Mayberry’s peers, the other 28 first-rounders from 2005 with college experience? One didn’t sign (Luke Hochevar) and one was hurt (Wade Townsend). Five others topped out at the same level as Mayberry in 2006. The other 21 played at a higher level.

For a better comparison, let’s drop everyone selected prior to Mayberry. Of the remaining seventeen peers, eleven played at a higher level in 2006. Five played at the same level, and one didn’t play.

The list (grey shading indicates player selected prior to Mayberry):

Pick
 Player Pos 2006 Levels
4
 Ryan Zimmerman 3b MLB
7
 Troy Tulowitzki ss AA, MLB
9
 Mike Pelfrey rhp high A, AA, AAA, MLB
25
 Matt Garza rhp high A, AA, AAA, MLB
26
 Craig Hansen rhp AA, AAA, MLB
27
 Joey Devine rhp high A, AA, AAA, MLB

Pick
 Player Pos 2006 Levels
3
 Jeff Clement c AA, AAA
18
 Cesar Carrillo rhp AA, AAA

Pick
 Player Pos 2006 Levels
2
 Alex Gordon 3b AA
5
 Ryan Braun 3b high A, AA
6
 Ricky Romero lhp high A, AA
14
 Trevor Crowe of high A, AA
15
 Lance Broadway rhp AA
23
 Jacoby Ellsbury of high A, AA
36
 Travis Buck of high A, AA
48
 Garrett Olson lhp high A, AA

Pick
 Player Pos 2006 Levels
21
 Cliff Pennington ss high A
29
 Jacob Marceaux rhp high A
30
 Tyler Greene ss low A, high A
35
 Cesar Ramos lhp high A
45
 Jed Lowrie 2b high A

Pick
 Player Pos 2006 Levels
19
 John Mayberry of low A
24
 Brian Bogusevic lhp short A, low A
31
 Matt Torra rhp low A (hurt)
38
 Eli Iorg of low A
42
 Clay Buchholz rhp low A
43
 Mark Mccormick rhp low A

Pick
 Player Pos 2006 Levels
8
 Wade Townsend rhp hurt
40
 Luke Hochevar rhp unsigned

Of course, playing at a higher level does not in itself connote a better player. For example, Tyler Greene hopped from low A to high A and bombed out. Texas could have given Mayberry a few late-season weeks in Bakersfield or even Frisco just to see what would happen. In sum, there’s only so much to draw from this list.

Ideally, Mayberry will be primed and ready when Mark Teixeira signs his monstrous free-agent contract with Baltimore after the 2008 season. But because of his rather slow development, he’ll have to jump three minor-league levels in two years for that to happen.

Posted by Lucas at September 16, 2006 12:02 PM