The Ranger Rundown

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November 27, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #9 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #9 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #9 Hitters	.309	.381	.690
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.312	.397	.709

Do managers see the last spot in the order as an opportunity to use their "second" leadoff hitters, light-slugging players with respectable on-base skills? The evidence suggests not; plenty of defense-oriented catchers and attenuated middle infielders call the #9 spot home. The AL's #9 batters produced almost identical numbers to previous two spots in the order. Only one team had an OPS+ of above 100 from the bottom of the order. That's to be expected, since good #9 hitters soon find themselves batting higher.

Texas Rangers #9 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.728 / 104	8
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.307 / 98	10
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.421 / 106	6
Runs	78	3
Homers	23	2
RBI	79	2
Walks	38	9
Strikeouts	112	10
Steals	4	12
Steal %	100%	1
(R-HR) %	33%	4

Texas Rangers #9 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
R. Barajas	49%	.751	110	.244	.302	97	.449	113	37	14	40	20	45	0	0
S. Alomar	15%	.519	48	.236	.261	83	.258	65	6	0	12	3	10	0	0
M. DeRosa	11%	.910	155	.283	.377	121	.533	134	14	4	9	8	14	1	0
G. Matthews	7%	.758	114	.250	.333	106	.425	107	9	2	6	5	10	0	0
G. Laird	7%	.627	76	.231	.268	86	.359	90	7	1	4	2	6	0	0
L. Nix	3%	.688	95	.313	.313	100	.375	95	1	0	1	0	2	1	0
Pitchers	3%	.526	47	.211	.211	67	.316	80	0	0	2	0	8	0	0
Other	5%	.970	171	.394	.394	126	.576	145	4	2	5	0	17	2	0

Catchers nabbed just over 71% of the plate appearances for Texas. Barajas resumed his low-average high-slugging gig, while Alomar and Laird didn't do much of anything, I'm afraid. Mark DeRosa enjoyed most of his inexplicable late-season heroics from the #9 spot. The pitchers acquitted themselves. Texas will be hard pressed to replace Chan Ho Park's outstanding work in the batter's box (.400/.400/.400). In keeping with the team philosophy, the pitchers combined for one triple (Kenny Rogers) but no walks. Homers by Richard Hidalgo and David Dellucci comprised much of the surprising success of "Other."

American League #9 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Cleveland	.821	140	1	.338	110	1	.483	130	1
Oakland	.754	118	2	.334	108	3	.420	110	2
Toronto	.749	112	3	.330	106	4	.419	106	5
Tampa Bay	.716	110	4	.314	102	5	.401	107	3
Chicago Sox	.738	107	5	.312	100	8	.426	107	4
LA Angels	.699	107	6	.333	109	2	.367	98	8
Baltimore	.699	105	7	.314	101	7	.385	103	7
Texas	.728	104	8	.307	98	10	.421	106	6
Boston	.660	92	9	.318	102	6	.343	89	10
Detroit	.657	90	10	.287	92	12	.370	98	9
Minnesota	.627	85	11	.303	99	9	.324	86	13
NY Yankees	.629	82	12	.292	94	11	.338	88	11
Kansas City	.597	76	13	.277	90	13	.320	86	12
Seattle	.585	74	14	.272	89	14	.314	85	14

Cleveland's Casey Blake (.264/.328/.511), Jhonny Peralta (.305/.348/.527), and Aaron Boone (.412/.434/.529) hit the cover off the ball batting ninth. Peralta hit everywhere, while Blake and especially Boone struggled in loftier lineup positions. Seattle employed half the planet's catchers and shortstops to grind the offense to a halt in front of Ichiro.

Sarcasm often falls flat on paper, so I'll point out that the sentence about Chan Ho Park was a joke.

Posted by Lucas at 11:14 PM

November 22, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #8 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #8 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #8 Hitters	.313	.394	.707
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.316	.411	.727

AL #8 hitters bested their #7 counterparts by .001 in slugging and on-base percentage. As for Texas, they received exemplary production from the #8 spot and poor production from the #7 spot despite considerable overlap in personnel. I don't see any explanation for it; some of the weaker Ranger hitters just happened to heat up while batting eighth. They trailed only Boston in lineup-adjusted OPS and led the league in runs, RBI and homers.

Texas Rangers #8 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.801 / 119	2
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.328 / 104	5
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.474 / 115	1
Runs	88	1
Homers	27	1
RBI	89	1
Walks	50	6
Strikeouts	108	10
Steals	5	8
Steal %	55%	9
(R-HR) %	33%	3

Texas Rangers #8 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
G. Matthews	31%	.813	122	.227	.338	116	.475	116	28	6	23	17	26	3	2
R. Hidalgo	19%	.879	138	.287	.328	134	.551	134	19	9	19	12	21	1	2
R. Barajas	15%	.716	95	.239	.281	106	.435	106	10	4	13	3	19	0	0
M. DeRosa	11%	.621	71	.247	.278	84	.343	84	7	2	7	4	15	0	0
L. Nix	5%	.935	154	.212	.355	141	.581	141	3	2	6	0	3	0	0
S. Alomar	5%	.789	119	.343	.375	101	.414	101	4	0	2	2	2	0	0
K. Mench	5%	1.080	192	.138	.400	166	.680	166	5	3	9	5	6	0	0
J. Botts	3%	.620	77	.231	.353	65	.267	65	2	0	3	2	6	0	0
D. Dellucci	3%	1.104	201	.242	.438	162	.667	162	5	1	3	4	3	1	0
Other	5%	.709	95	.281	.303	99	.406	99	5	0	4	1	7	0	0

Hidalgo batted .287/.328/.551 in the eighth position, .204/.264/.343 everywhere else. What did I have to say about him back in March?

Plate Appearances: 600. Batting Average: .265. Runs: 85. Homers: 27. RBI: 85. Steals: 5. On-base Percentage: .340. Slugging Percentage: .500. Upside: Moderate. Hidalgo batted .310 with good patience just two years ago. Downside: High. He batted .239 with no patience just last year, and .235 three years ago. Injury history: Murky. Hidalgo hasn’t reached 600 plate appearances in five years because of a variety of minor injuries.

Meet the most difficult player to project in Major League Baseball. In addition to his seemingly randomly generated stats, he has surpassed 600 plate appearances only once in his career and averaged 568 over the last five years, so my prediction of 600 might be slightly generous. I think potential owners should pretend his unparalleled 200 season (.314-118-44-122-13) never happened, as he’s never come close to repeating it. Take out that season and what does he offer? An erratic batting average, 70-90 runs and RBI, never more than 28 homers, a small handful of steals. In a ten-team mixed league, he's a generic outfielder. Hidalgo has considerable upside moving to Arlington, but remember that he spent much of career in hitter-friendly Enron/Minute Maid Park.... An intrepid owner could pass on Hidalgo, draft Mench several rounds later, and get essentially the same production."

The Ranger Rundown: your source for wishy-washy, caveat-laden quasi-predictions.

American League #8 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Boston	.782	120	1	.359	114	1	.422	106	4
Texas	.801	119	2	.328	104	5	.474	115	1
NY Yankees	.776	117	3	.341	108	2	.435	109	2
Minnesota	.730	109	4	.326	105	3	.404	104	6
Oakland	.735	107	5	.312	99	9	.423	107	3
LA Angels	.721	106	6	.314	101	7	.406	105	5
Baltimore	.716	105	7	.327	104	4	.389	101	7
Toronto	.725	101	8	.323	102	6	.402	99	9
Tampa Bay	.677	95	9	.309	100	8	.369	96	11
Chicago Sox	.711	95	10	.302	96	11	.409	100	8
Cleveland	.673	94	11	.300	97	10	.373	97	10
Detroit	.643	82	12	.290	92	12	.353	90	13
Kansas City	.634	82	13	.280	90	13	.354	92	12
Seattle	.578	68	14	.273	88	14	.305	80	14

Boston, mostly in the form of Bill Mueller, squeaked past Texas in L-OPS+ with a substantially higher OBP. Seattle's loathsome variety pack of Yuniesky Betancourt, Miguel Olivo, Mike Morse, Jose Lopez, Willie Bloomquist, and sixteen(!) others provided some of the worst hitting in baseball.

Posted by Lucas at 09:01 AM

November 18, 2005

40-Man Roster Additions

Texas added 2B Ian Kinsler, SS Joaquin Arias, and pitchers Wes Littleton and Omar Beltre to the 40-man roster.

Texas drafted the 23-year-old Kinsler as a shortstop in the 17th round in 2003. Kinsler has jumped a level each year in the minors; last year he batted .274/.348/.464 with 23 homers and 19 steals at AAA Oklahoma. Right now he’s blocked by Alfonso Soriano and probably will repeat in AAA unless Texas moves Fonzie.

Arias came to Texas along with Soriano for some guy named Alex Rodriguez. Statistically, he hasn’t displayed too much with the bat besides a lofty batting average, but one can’t complain about someone who batted .315/.335/.423 in AA as a 20-year-old. 2006 guess: starting in AA with a promotion to AAA upon quality results.

23-year-old Littleton posted an ERA of 4.15 with mostly mediocre peripherals in high-A in 2004. Promoted to AA and converted to full-time relief in 2005, he lowered his ERA only to 3.97 but improved both his strikeout and walk rates. I think Texas will push him up to AAA to begin the season.

The wild card is Beltre, whose visa problems trapped him in the Dominican Republic throughout 2005. Beltre electrified the California League in 2004 as a reliever, tossing up a 2.45 ERA with 47 Ks and just one home allowed in 59 innings. On the downside, he’s now 24 and has yet to play beyond high-A. I suppose he’ll start 2006 in AA assuming the authorities permit his return to American soil.

Texas opted not to add 2002 first-rounder Drew Meyer (UT), 2003 second-rounder Vince Sinisi (OF), 2003 third-rounder John Hudgins (P), and former 40 members Nick Masset (P) and Ruddy Yan (OF).

Posted by Lucas at 07:06 PM

Weekend Photo

Bitey the Possum is the official mascot of the 2001 Texas Ranger pitching staff (ERA+ of 78!).

Posted by Lucas at 06:10 PM

Transaction

Texas acquired reliever Jon Leicester for a Player To Be Named Later or cash. Texas also signed pitchers Jesse Carlson and Kevin Walker to minor-league contracts.

The 26-year-old Leicester pitched pretty well as a rookie reliever for the Cubs in 2004 (3.89 ERA, 7.6 K/9, but also seven homers in 43 innings). In 2005, Chicago banished him to Iowa after a rough start, where he struggled as a swingman. Leicester has rarely shown good control in the minors, though he did begin striking out hitters at a dandy pace once he turned 24. He’ll get a chance to start the season in Arlington. He’s on the 40-man roster.

Carlson is 24 and is now on his fourth organization. He floundered in his first attempt in AA in 2004 and likewise struggled in AAA for Toronto the following season. The Jays demoted him to AA, where he pitched magnificently (1.83 ERA, two homers, five walks and 42 strikeouts in 42 innings). Carlson has an ERA of 2.81 and K rate of 10.1 per nine innings in the minor leagues, all in relief. I’d guess that Texas will start him in AA with a quick promotion to AAA if he shows results.

The aptly named Walker has six years of MLB experience, most of it coming in his rookie season in 2001. He has a terrific hit rate of just 7.5 per nine innings and an 8.5 K/9 ratio. Alas, hitters don’t need to swing the bat much against a pitcher who allows 5.6 walks per nine innings. Walker’s walk rate in the minors registers at a far more reasonable 3.3 per nine. He looks like AAA filler.

Posted by Lucas at 12:04 AM

November 17, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #7 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #7 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #7 Hitters	.312	.393	.705
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.315	.410	.725

Even the better-hitting teams rarely have such a thing as an "everyday #7 hitter." Like the eighth and ninth spots, the #7 spot is usually filled with youngsters of varying promise, substitutes, and regulars who just don't hit well. Indeed, in 2005 the difference in OPS between the league's #7, #8 and #9 hitters was only .015.

The Rangers didn't have an outright depressing performance from the #7 spot as they did at cleanup and #6, but they certainly didn't hit well. Their batting average of .240 corrupted respectable totals in homers and walks.

Texas Rangers #7 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.704 / 92	12
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.303 / 96	10
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.402 / 98	11
Runs	76	7
Homers	19	3
RBI	72	9
Walks	51	6
Strikeouts	138	13
Steals	5	9
Steal %	83%	2
(R-HR) %	32%	6

Texas Rangers #7 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
L. Nix	21%	.687	87	.227	.262	83	.424	104	17	4	19	7	29	1	0
K. Mench	16%	.791	120	.287	.376	119	.415	101	15	2	10	12	11	0	0
A. Gonzalez	15%	.714	93	.239	.258	82	.457	112	10	4	13	3	27	0	0
R. Hidalgo	13%	.727	100	.247	.307	97	.420	103	10	4	13	4	18	0	0
G. Matthews	11%	.540	53	.212	.297	94	.242	59	8	0	3	8	17	3	0
R. Barajas	6%	1.080	193	.343	.395	125	.686	168	6	3	7	3	6	0	0
P. Nevin	5%	.622	69	.138	.242	77	.379	93	4	2	4	4	11	1	0
C. Allen	4%	.490	38	.231	.259	82	.231	56	2	0	1	1	8	0	1
Other	6%	.723	103	.242	.359	114	.364	89	3	0	2	6	7	0	0

Laynce Nix and Adrian Gonzalez both spent just over one-half of their lackluster seasons batting seventh. Mench hit very well here, and Richard Hidalgo partially compensated for his nightly displays of agony in the #5 and #6 slots. Texas used a not-atypical fifteen batters in this slot in the lineup.

American League #7 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Tampa Bay	.764	120	1	.341	110	1	.424	110	1
Boston	.743	110	2	.333	106	4	.410	104	6
Cleveland	.711	105	3	.302	97	9	.410	107	2
Toronto	.733	104	4	.338	107	2	.395	97	11
Oakland	.720	104	5	.327	104	5	.393	100	9
Minnesota	.713	104	6	.318	103	6	.395	102	7
Kansas City	.711	104	7	.309	99	7	.401	105	4
NY Yankees	.719	103	8	.335	107	3	.384	97	12
Detroit	.718	103	9	.305	97	10	.413	106	3
Baltimore	.707	102	10	.307	98	8	.401	104	5
Texas	.704	94	11	.303	96	12	.402	98	10
LA Angels	.678	94	12	.285	92	13	.393	102	8
Seattle	.646	88	13	.300	97	11	.346	91	13
Chicago Sox	.604	67	14	.271	86	14	.333	81	14

The AL's best #7 hitters belonged to Tampa Bay, a mishmash of mostly improbable performances from Alex Gonzalez, Nick Green, Damon Hollins, Jonny Gomes, Travis Lee and Toby Hall. Way, way down at the other end are the Chicago White Sox, who endured the out-rific fun of A.J. Pierzynski, Aaron Rowand, Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, Timo Perez, and Chris Widger.

Posted by Lucas at 11:17 PM

November 13, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #6 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #6 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #6 Hitters	.322	.421	.743
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.326	.439	.764

Many managers begin to have trouble filling out their lineups once the six-spot comes up. Known as a slugger's position, AL #6 hitters actually trailed the league slugging percentage average by .003. The Rangers had surprisingly difficulty getting respectable production from this spot in the order. Texas had by far the worst combination of #4 and #6 hitters in the AL, downright bizarre considering they had a good offense on the whole.

Discerning fans might say remember that Kevin Mench spent much of the season batting sixth and had a passable season, though not the breakout performance hoped for. Mench, alas, was not the problem.

Texas Rangers #6 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.697 / 82	13
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.291 / 89	13
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.406 / 92	11
Runs	79	7
Homers	24	4
RBI	75	8
Walks	47	10
Strikeouts	98	3
Steals	4	10
Steal %	57%	7
(R-HR) %	32%	4

Texas Rangers #6 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
K. Mench	56%	.791	105	.265	.312	96	.479	109	43	17	49	22	45	4	3
R. Hidalgo	10%	.442	19	.161	.232	71	.210	48	5	0	2	6	15	0	0
L. Nix	7%	.468	25	.196	.229	70	.239	54	7	0	6	2	10	0	0
P. Nevin	7%	.439	19	.182	.234	72	.205	47	6	0	2	2	11	0	0
H. Blalock	6%	.514	30	.162	.162	50	.351	80	4	2	6	0	5	0	0
A. Gonzalez	6%	.734	92	.222	.317	97	.417	95	5	2	3	5	5	0	0
G. Matthews	4%	.813	112	.280	.333	102	.480	109	3	1	2	2	3	0	0
Other	4%	.925	140	.200	.375	115	.550	125	6	2	5	8	4	0	0

While batting sixth, Mench played like a slower version of Alfonso Soriano, not reaching base steadily but slugging enough to compensate. (Mench unfortunately also ranked among the worst in baseball at hitting with runners in scoring position.) The real problem was five other gentlemen who acquired just over one-third of the plate appearances in the #6 spot. Messieurs Hidalgo, Nix, Nevin, Blalock and Gonzalez combined to hit .182/.233/.271 with one homer per sixty at-bats. That's an L-OPS+ of 33 and an OPS of 35. Steve Carlton had a career OPS+ of 33.

Texas's #4 and #6 batters combined to hit .250/.304/.426; their aggregate L-OPS+ of 80 was easily, very easily, the worst in the American League.

American League #6 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
NY Yankees	.861	130	1	.370	114	1	.491	115	1
Cleveland	.817	123	2	.349	109	2	.468	114	2
Chicago Sox	.832	116	3	.335	103	5	.498	113	3
Boston	.782	109	4	.342	106	3	.440	104	6
Minnesota	.757	106	5	.330	103	4	.427	102	7
Detroit	.764	104	6	.311	96	11	.453	108	4
Baltimore	.729	97	7	.300	93	12	.429	104	5
Tampa Bay	.717	96	8	.310	97	9	.407	99	8
Kansas City	.708	94	9	.324	101	8	.383	93	10
Seattle	.689	91	10	.323	101	7	.366	90	12
LA Angels	.697	90	11	.309	97	10	.388	94	9
Toronto	.716	90	12	.329	101	6	.386	89	13
Texas	.697	82	13	.291	89	13	.406	92	11
Oakland	.642	73	14	.287	89	14	.356	85	14

Jason Giambi resuscitated his career and Tino Martinez enjoyed part of his wild ten-homer May while batting sixth. At the other end of the spectrum, Oakland fans looked in horror upon the inefficient fivesome of Scott Hatteberg, Jay Payton, Bobby Kielty, Dan Johnson and Eric Byrnes.

Posted by Lucas at 10:27 PM

November 12, 2005

Transaction

Back on Wednesday while I was sleeping, Texas signed pitcher Rick Bauer and outfielder Adrian Brown to minor-league contracts.

Nice little pickups for Oklahoma. Bauer turns 29 in January and has a career ERA of 4.58 (ERA+ of 97) in 240 innings with Baltimore. He has a fine ground/fly ratio of 1.50, though that has translated into keeping the ball in the park. Bauer is mediocre, to be sure, but he nicely fills the role of fallback long reliever in case someone gets hurt or can’t keep his ERA under six.

Brown looks like Jason Conti’s replacement. He has a line of .260/.328/.344 in eight part-time seasons with Pittsburgh, Boston and Kansas City. He spent the entirety of 2005 in AAA Omaha and batted .273/.361/.401. Decent average, good patience, minimal power.

Posted by Lucas at 12:06 PM

November 11, 2005

Weekend Photo

Posted by Lucas at 08:42 PM

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #5 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #5 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #5 Hitters	.338	.452	.790
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.342	.471	.813

The league's #5 hitters have the third highest OPS in the league. Not until the #6 spot does the quality really decline. For the Rangers, the question is whether Alfonso Soriano performed well in the #5 position as opposed to his preferred location atop the order.

Texas Rangers #5 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.829 / 102	4
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.321 / 94	12
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.508 / 108	4
Runs	108	2
Homers	36	2
RBI	111	2
Walks	47	9
Strikeouts	120	10
Steals	25	1
Steal %	93%	1
(R-HR) %	38%	1

Texas Rangers #5 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
A. Soriano	76%	.838	103	.270	.315	92	.523	111	82	30	93	27	93	24	2
R. Hidalgo	8%	.609	50	.192	.263	77	.346	73	8	2	7	4	16	0	0
K. Mench	8%	.810	101	.267	.365	107	.444	94	4	1	2	7	2	0	0
D. Dellucci	5%	1.100	171	.333	.471	138	.630	134	11	2	4	7	5	1	0
Other	3%	.828	100	.238	.304	89	.524	111	3	1	5	2	4	0	0

Soriano produced to expectations, reaching base consderably below the park-adjusted league average but compensating with a thunderous stick. He also personally stole more bases from the #5 spot than any other team's players combined. I haven't done any research, but I'd guess that speed in the #5 spot comes in quite handy as it provides the later, lesser hitters to drive him in with just one single. Hidalgo flopped here (as elsewhere), Mench batted capably, and Dellucci spent a week here early in the season while inhabiting Jason Giambi's younger, healthier body.

Would Soriano have reached base at the league average anywhere else in the lineup? He would not. Even batting ninth he'd have an L-OBP+ of 99. In his favor, he'd also have an L-SLG+ of at least 103 at any lineup spot. Soriano is what he is. Better to bat him fifth than first or third, where he spent most of 2004.

American League #5 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
NY Yankees	.974	143	1	.399	117	1	.575	126	1
Detroit	.834	110	2	.334	98	9	.500	111	2
Boston	.803	103	3	.363	107	2	.440	96	9
Texas	.829	101	4	.321	94	12	.508	108	3
Minnesota	.787	101	5	.336	100	6	.450	101	5
Baltimore	.784	100	6	.337	100	8	.447	101	4
Cleveland	.774	100	7	.338	101	5	.436	99	7
Tampa Bay	.776	99	8	.335	100	7	.441	99	6
Oakland	.764	95	9	.357	105	3	.407	90	13
Kansas City	.747	92	10	.326	96	10	.422	96	11
Chicago Sox	.781	92	11	.329	96	11	.451	96	10
Seattle	.744	92	12	.312	93	13	.433	99	8
Toronto	.765	91	13	.344	101	4	.421	90	14
LA Angels	.707	82	14	.306	91	14	.402	90	12

New York's Hideki Matsui spent just over half the season in the five hole and batted .333/.397/.557. Alex Rodriguez played 41 games there and batted, ahem, .347/.461/.728. Steve Finley, Juan Rivera and Darin Erstad accounted for most of LA's middle-of-the-order wretchedness. Only Bengie Molina managed to hit well over a decent number of plate appearances.

Posted by Lucas at 08:36 PM

Best satire since Gulliver's Travels

From the LAist , on LA's search for a general manager:

John Hart, who was the architect of the Texas Rangers revival, would be a great fit. He has the ability to discover and develop talented stars like Mark Teixeira, Hank Blaylock [sic] and Michael Young and the craftiness to make great moves such as the trade to get All-Star Alfonso Soriano for amazing but super expensive Alex Rodriguez, a move that has been regarded as the one that turned the Rangers from also-rans to AL West contenders. It is that type of foresight and knowledge the Dodgers need to return to competitiveness in a very winnable NL West.

Posted by Lucas at 05:41 PM

November 08, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #4 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #4 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #4 Hitters	.346	.471	.817
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.350	.491	.841

AL #4 hitters had the highest on-base percentage and slugging percentage of any spot in the order.

Texas Rangers #4 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.762 / 81	14
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.317 / 90	14
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.445 / 91	11
Runs	84	12
Homers	27	7
RBI	92	8
Walks	47	14
Strikeouts	142	12
Steals	5	8
Steal %	100%	1
(R-HR) %	28%	13

Would you believe that the Rangers had the worst cleanup hitting in the American League in 2005? At best, Texas tied with Minnesota for that distinction. Texas #4 hitters were dead last in OPS+ and OBP+ (adjusted for home field), last in walks, twelfth in strikeouts, twelfth in runs scored, and eighth in RBI (with 92, only two more than the next-to-last Orioles).

Texas Rangers #4 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
H. Blalock	76%	.755	80	.273	.323	92	.432	88	60	18	71	36	107	1	0
M. Teixeira	14%	.812	91	.253	.317	91	.495	101	14	6	14	7	16	1	0
A. Soriano	5%	.682	59	.216	.250	71	.432	88	3	2	3	2	11	2	0
P. Nevin	4%	.808	90	.250	.308	88	.500	102	5	1	2	2	6	1	0
Other	1%	.857	98	.286	.286	82	.571	116	2	0	2	0	2	0	0

Hank Blalock rarely has hit well against lefties or on the road, but in 2005 he floundered against both: .231/.276/.335 away from Arlington, .196/.228/.356 vs. lefties (including just seven walks and 53 strikeouts) . He also exhibited another sharp second-half decline (.236/.283/.375). Thus, in 2005 he was an effective hitter only at home, against righties, and prior to mid-July. During the other 125 games, he struggled. Showalter and company have a serious problem if Blalock doesn't improve. Texas benched him against lefties during most of 2003 and might face the unwelcome prospect of doing so again in 2006.

Blalock wasn't entirely responsible for the gloomy production from the #4 slot. Mark Teixeira began the season batting cleanup and started slowly, while Soriano and Nevin offered little support.

American League #4 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Boston	.957	130	1	.377	108	1	.580	122	1
Cleveland	.906	124	2	.363	106	4	.543	118	2
Seattle	.889	121	3	.361	105	5	.528	116	3
Chicago Sox	.912	117	4	.376	107	2	.536	109	4
NY Yankees	.861	109	5	.370	106	3	.491	103	7
LA Angels	.840	108	6	.352	103	6	.488	105	5
Oakland	.835	103	7	.343	99	9	.492	104	6
Detroit	.797	96	8	.348	100	8	.449	96	9
Baltimore	.791	95	9	.333	96	12	.458	99	8
Kansas City	.777	94	10	.353	102	7	.424	92	10
Tampa Bay	.748	87	11	.334	97	10	.414	90	14
Toronto	.777	87	12	.338	97	11	.439	90	13
Minnesota	.736	82	13	.315	92	13	.421	90	12
Texas	.762	81	14	.317	90	14	.445	91	11

Seattle and Chicago had weak offenses with excellent cleanup hitting, courtesy mostly of Richie Sexson and Paul Konerko. Unsurprisingly, Boston's Manny Ramirez showed up the competition.

Posted by Lucas at 08:13 PM

November 07, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #3 Hitters

Explanation of stats here.

American League #3 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #3 Hitters	.340	.461	.801
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.344	.480	.824

The average AL team had an OPS+ of 115 from the #3 spot. The last table in this article reveals a strong correlation between a team's #3 hitters and its overall performance. With the exceptions of Kansas City and Oakland, the rankings of #3 hitters by OPS+ closely resemble each team's runs scored.

Texas Rangers #3 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.940 / 127	2
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.380 / 111	3
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.561 / 117	2
Runs	112	3
Homers	40	2
RBI	146	2
Walks	74	3
Strikeouts	121	10
Steals	4	10
Steal %	100%	1
(R-HR) %	30%	4

Texas Rangers #3 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Mark Teixeira	85%	.978	136	.310	.390	113	.588	123	98	36	130	65	108	3	0
Michael Young	15%	.760	86	.271	.333	97	.427	89	13	2	160	9	11	1	0
Other	1%	.000	-100	.000	.000	0	.000	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0

Texas ranked second or third among the AL's #3 hitters in all the major hitting categories. All of the top rankings belong to Boston's David Ortiz. I believe the Rangers will accept Mark Teixeira's line of .310/.390/.588 as a consolation prize.

American League #3 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Boston	.976	141	1	.395	115	1	.581	125	1
Texas	.940	127	2	.380	110	3	.561	117	2
NY Yankees	.882	119	3	.381	112	2	.501	107	5
Baltimore	.855	114	4	.343	101	8	.513	114	3
Cleveland	.833	112	5	.360	107	4	.472	105	7
Kansas City	.820	107	6	.344	101	7	.476	106	6
LA Angels	.817	107	7	.349	104	5	.469	103	9
Tampa Bay	.818	105	8	.321	95	11	.497	110	4
Detroit	.817	103	9	.337	99	10	.480	105	8
Seattle	.746	91	10	.336	99	9	.410	92	10
Minnesota	.736	88	11	.349	103	6	.387	85	13
Toronto	.732	79	12	.311	91	13	.421	88	11
Oakland	.699	76	13	.317	93	12	.382	83	14
Chicago Sox	.715	73	14	.296	86	14	.419	87	12

Yes, the World Champion Chicago White Sox had the worst #1 hitters and the worst #3 hitters in the American League. Carl Everett (.249/.312/.429) and Aaron Rowand (.266/.313/.410) were the primary culprits. The bottom four teams had a sub-100 OPS+ compared to the entire league, not just other #3 hitters.

Posted by Lucas at 08:05 AM

November 06, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #2 Hitters

Review of #1 hitters and explanation of stats here.

American League #2 Hitters and Ballpark Adjustment

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League #2 Hitters	.330	.405	.735
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.334	.422	.756

A good #2 hitter is hard to find. The American League's #2 hitters reached based less often than #1 hitters (.330 to .345) and even slugged at a lower rate (.405 to .417). Were AL managers too insistent on placing a traditional, runner-advancing type in the #2 slot at the expense of on-base skills? I would have expected the talent-rich Yankees to have among the best #2 hitters in the AL, but in fact Joe Torre doled out most of the plate appearances to the green Robinson Cano and the execrable Tony Womack.

I'm not President of the Buck Showalter Fan Club (I'm not even a member), but I give him credit for solving a lineup problem that plagued many teams. About three weeks into the season, he stuck one of the team's two best hitters into the #2 slot and left him there.

Texas Rangers #2 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.906 / 139	1
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.385 / 115	1
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.520 / 123	1
Runs	118	2
Homers	27	1
RBI	88	2
Walks	65	2
Strikeouts	102	4
Steals	4	14
Steal %	67%	11
(R-HR) %	35%	8

Texas Rangers #2 Hitters: The Players

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
Michael Young	83%	.922	143	.341	.394	118	.528	125	101	21	75	49	80	4	2
Hank Blalock	14%	.779	107	.244	.346	104	.433	103	11	4	10	14	17	0	0
Other	3%	1.015	162	.273	.333	100	.682	162	6	2	3	2	5	0	0

All hail Michael Young! Young slugged .528 and provided the badly needed on-base skills missing from the #1 slot (.321 OBP). Texas trailed the league in steals and was the only team in the league without a sacrifice bunt from the #2 slot. As I've discussed earlier, bunting is a situational strategy, not just something a team should do in imitation of a horrible yet playoff-bound NL offense. Perhaps Texas faced some situations this season in which bunting from the #2 slot was the optimal strategy, but I doubt the number exceeded five or so.

American League #2 Hitters

TEAM	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Texas	0.906	139	1	0.385	115	1	0.520	123	1
Tampa Bay	0.776	115	2	0.352	108	2	0.424	107	3
Cleveland	0.776	114	3	0.326	100	7	0.450	114	2
Boston	0.774	110	4	0.352	106	3	0.422	103	5
Detroit	0.742	101	5	0.317	96	12	0.425	106	4
Chicago Sox	0.757	101	6	0.335	101	5	0.422	100	6
Oakland	0.736	100	7	0.333	101	6	0.403	100	7
LA Angels	0.705	95	8	0.331	101	4	0.374	94	11
NY Yankees	0.716	93	9	0.317	96	11	0.399	97	9
Baltimore	0.699	92	10	0.306	93	14	0.393	99	8
Seattle	0.684	90	11	0.315	96	10	0.369	94	10
Toronto	0.712	90	12	0.325	98	8	0.387	92	12
Kansas City	0.664	84	13	0.317	96	9	0.347	88	13
Minnesota	0.635	76	14	0.307	94	13	0.328	82	14

Texas destroyed the competition among #2 hitters. Second-place Tampa Bay trailed Texas in OBP by .033, and no team came within 70 points of Texas's .520 slugging percentage. Minnesota makes another appearance with the worst #2 hitters. "Offensive force" Nick Punto, Luis Rodriguez, Jason Bartlett and Juan Castro were the main perpetrators.

Posted by Lucas at 01:00 PM

November 04, 2005

Weekend Photo

Along State Highway 82, deepest southern Louisiana, September 1999.

Posted by Lucas at 12:18 PM

November 03, 2005

Reviewing the Ranger Lineup: #1 Hitters

I’ll review the Ranger hitters in terms of position and spot in the lineup during the next few weeks. Today, the #1 hitters.

Before I delve into the Rangers, please allow a quick explanation of a few derived statistics. You probably already know OPS and OPS+. If not, OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while OPS+ converts that number to an index based on the league average and player’s home park. 100 is always average, higher is better. OPS can mislead since it considers players with a .300 OBP and .500 SLG and those with a .400 OBP and .400 SLG to be equals. Therefore, I also like to display OBP+ and SLG+, the same type of indices as OPS+ but measuring separately a player’s effectiveness in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

The operative comparison for batting position is not to the league as a whole but rather the league’s other #1 hitters, who reach base more often but hit with less power than the rest of the league. An average #1 hitter for Texas must have an OBP of .349, fifteen points higher than the team as a whole.

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
American League	.330	.424	.754
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.334	.442	.776

Category	On-Base %	Slugging %	OPS
AL #1 Hitters	.345	.417	.762
Park Factor - The Ballpark	1.011	1.042	---
Adjusted for The Ballpark	.349	.434	.783

I use the term “L-OBP+,” L-SLG+” and “L-OPS+” to describe a player’s performance in terms of his spot in the batting order instead of the entire league (L = lineup). If a Ranger #1 hitter has an OBP of .349, he’d have a plain vanilla OBP+ of 104 but an L-OBP+ of just 100.

Texas Rangers #1 Hitters: The Team

Category	Texas	AL Rank
OPS and L-OPS+	.785 / 99	8
On-Base % and L-OBP+	.321 / 92	14
Slugging % and L-SLG+	.464 / 107	4
Runs	122	3
Homers	37	1
RBI	82	2
Walks	76	1
Strikeouts	171	14
Steals	11	9
Steal %	71%	3
(R-HR) %	41%	4

Overall, their results are satisfactory if the end justifies the means, as they were third in runs scored, only eight behind league-leading Boston. No other team approached Texas’s 37 homers. Cleveland was second with 20, and the average team hit 14. Texas #1 hitters didn’t run very often but also didn’t run into many outs.

On the downside, they had the worst L-OBP+ in the league. In terms of raw OBP, only Minnesota was worse at .318. Weirdly, Texas’s #1 hitters drew the most walks in the AL with 76. Texas #1 hitters had plenty of patience. What they lacked was batting average; their .243 figure was 25 points below any other team. They also lapped the field with 171 strikeouts, 49 more than runner-up New York. If you’re the kind fan who prefers a traditional top-of-the-order hitter, the Rangers most definitely were not for you.

The last statistic, (R-HR)%, measures how often the player scored when reaching base safely by means other than a home run. It measures the team more than the player, and Texas performed pretty well in this regard.

Texas Rangers #1 Hitters: The Individuals

NAME	% of Team PA	OPS	L-OPS+	BA	OBP	L-OBP+	SLG	L-SLG+	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS
D. Dellucci	56%	.833	111	.245	.346	99	.487	112	76	23	51	54	105	3	3
G. Matthews	23%	.759	92	.242	.306	88	.452	104	24	8	18	15	33	3	0
A. Soriano	13%	.781	97	.276	.301	86	.480	111	16	4	7	4	20	4	0
K. Mench	3%	.269	-28	.095	.174	50	.095	22	0	0	0	2	2	0	0
Other	5%	.709	208	.78	.252	72	.457	105	6	2	6	1	11	1	0

David Dellucci hit far better than anyone but him and his mother could have expected, and for a while he walked at a near-Bondsian rate (about once per five plate appearances during the season’s first two months). Nevertheless, his unexceptional batting average of .245 resulted in an only ordinary OBP. None of his teammates offered much support. Gary Matthews, Alfonso Soriano and friends hit for power but combined for a ghastly .293 on-base percentage.

American League #1 Hitters

TEAM	G	OPS	L-OPS+	rank	OBP	L-OBP+	rank	SLG	L-SLG+	rank
Baltimore	162	.844	123	1	.371	108	2	.473	116	1
NY Yankees	162	.817	113	2	.379	109	1	.438	104	8
Seattle	162	.785	110	3	.349	102	5	.436	108	3
Boston	162	.804	110	4	.363	105	3	.441	105	6
Tampa Bay	162	.773	105	5	.337	99	8	.435	107	5
Cleveland	162	.770	105	6	.331	97	12	.439	108	2
Kansas City	162	.760	102	7	.336	98	10	.423	104	7
Texas	162	.785	99	8	.321	92	14	.464	107	4
Oakland	162	.746	97	9	.357	103	4	.390	94	11
Detroit	162	.742	95	10	.349	101	6	.392	95	9
LA Angels	162	.728	94	11	.341	100	7	.387	94	10
Toronto	162	.736	90	12	.340	98	9	.396	92	13
Minnesota	162	.702	86	13	.318	93	13	.384	93	12
Chicago Sox	162	.674	74	14	.338	97	11	.336	77	14

As for the rest of the league, Baltimore (consisting mostly of Brian Roberts) had the best group of #1 hitters in the AL, and Minnesota (Shannon Stewart and pals) and the World Champion Chicago White Sox (mainly Scott Podsednik) shared the worst.

Posted by Lucas at 11:58 PM

Transaction

Texas signed OF Adam Hyzdu, C Jamie Burke, C Nick Trzesniak, P Shane Bazzell, and P Chris Baker to minor-league contracts.

Hyzdu has the most MLB experience. San Francisco drafted him 15th overall in 1990, but he didn’t make his big-league debut until 2000 with Pittsburgh, by then his fifth organization. Hyzdu has some pop (18.6 AB/HR) and a good walk rate that partially compensates for a career batting average of .229. Now 34, he’ll probably fill the Chad Allen role, an AAA outfielder to provide temporary help if someone gets hurt.

Burke drank several cups of coffee with Anaheim and the White Sox, and in 2004 he stayed long enough to bat .333/.386/.408 in 57 games. The catching equivalent of Hyzdu, probably. Trzesniak (there’s a fun word to type) also is a former first-rounder, 51st overall by San Diego in 1999. The 25-year-old batted .380/.430/.519 in 24 games in AAA Portland, but the rest of his minor-league career is underwhelming offensively.

Bazzell is a six-year free agent who decided to return to Texas. He spent 2005 as a swingman in Frisco. Baker joins Texas after seven years in the Toronto system, mostly as a starter, and never with better than a 4.33 ERA in three seasons in AAA.

Posted by Lucas at 12:42 PM