(Kevin Pucetas) Knocked around a little. Change decent, 74-81 slurve came and went. FB only 85-86.

Deglan has already spent 2 full years at Hickory. Alfaro just one, and was hurt for almost two months. He will be in Myrtle soon.

Don't fret if Jorge Alfaro starts the season in Hickory. He could, if only for a little while.

Excitement! Offseason signing 3B Marquez Smith blasts a 3-run homer in the 9th for a 5-4 AAA victory over the Pale Hose.

Errors on consecutive pitches by SS Hanser Alberto, 3 in 2 innings. All glove.

2 swinging Ks on 81 MPH corkscrewy sliders from lefty Jimmy Reyes.

Fontster 89-97 on a player's gun pointed at catcher's feet half the time. Anyway, consistently eye-high early then settled. 2 bb, 1 K.

Frasor gave up a homer to White Sock Michael Blake in his inning with AA group. Just left of center, 410 or so.

Texas AA/AAA rosters for today. Lo/Hi-A missing many big names -- Gallo, Brinson, Mazara, Williams, Beras.

Alfaro went yard, I missed it because I fail at life. N Williams tripled off base of center (400), Brinson lashed single to left.

Kirkman 4 R 4 IP. Didn't see much, did see 3 pure curves in span of 4 pitches(!). Being stretched out because... yeah, I dunno.

Sensory overload time: 4 simultaneous minor league games on the KC side.

Remember Carlos Melo? Sure you do. 92-95 with movement and low in zone vs some Canadian all stars. Damn tease.

Slidery 4th for Tepesch: 12 of 21 pitches (83-86) including 8 of last 10. And more bad D. At least 1, up to 3 of 8 hits should've been outs.

Some iffy D behind him, but 2 walks and 4 medium-to-very hard hit balls off Tepesch in 11 batters faced. Also 3 Ks.

Texas farm hurler Zach Brill in uniform in office lobby chair reading Nietzsche. #showoff In English #slack

Playing with AA squad, UTA alum OF Preston Beck waits on a (fat) curve with 1 on, 2 out, 2 strikes in 9th and line-singles home tying run.

Teammates calling Odor "Odie" and "Odie Bear (?)" because he needs more nicknames.
Homer pulled down line for Rougned or whatever his spell-corrected name becomes. #roughed #roofie #rhubarb

Neil Ramirez has (most of) of velo back and pitching with confidence. Control a bit wiggly but still encouraging.

Texas 1B Ronald Guzman out here on crutches. Surgery for torn meniscus last Friday. Out 6-8 weeks more or less.

Seattle dugout talking Cory Burns: He hides his change really well. #eavesdropping

Jake Skole reached on bloop RBI single , then picked off 1st by catcher after Sardinas swung thru bunt. Solid double by R Bolinger.

CF Zach Cone looking fastball on a 2-2 count and got one but swung through it.

Roughed Odor with a wind-aided sun-aided sleeping cutoff man-aided triple to left in AA game.

Okay, all players in my hotel go to bed so I can stream Hulu cleanly. I have a headache and I'm older than you.

Gallo with another E. Ran in to field grounder but short hopped first.

CJ Edwards just froze a batter solid with a third strike curve. FB 91-93 sez @LoneStarDugout

Santo Perez is very tall and completely negates it with his low delivery. You could level your picture frames with his fastball.

OF Nick Williams tripled to center [actually an error] scoring Lewis Brinson who'd walked. Gallo with an E5 (glove). Williams has looked great.

Lisalverto Bonilla's 81-86 CH a killer (6 swinging strikes) but every FB (91-93) has different release point. Also 79 mph CB okay at times.

4-pitch walk for Engel Beltre. And now there's a delay because it's raining frogs.

Manny Pina's watching Jose Felix and thinking "dude you gotta take a pitch once in a while."

@lonestarball I understand -- just saying I wasn't seeing Ortiz as someone who'd help Texas in September. Didn't look as good as stats to me

Engel Beltre is a major league CF through and through. But ohhhh the plate approach #everybeltretweetever

Bulldog Ortiz throwing MLB-quality stuff tonight. And Kins made a stellar play at second. He's got about 0.6 preseason WAR tonight.

My first A game in three years and its Lowe instead of Yu. Have to make the best of it. *cries salty tears*

Jose Valdespina a messy rolled 7th. Up to 96, some good CH + CB later, zero control early. 15 of 28 for balls, and a WP.

Aussie OF Todd McDonald: very tall, very thin, very upright swing

Keone Kela mostly 93-96 with a sinking change. Very erratic in all respects but improving in 2nd inning.

Brinson went deep again. Gallo added one. I was watching the other field.

A hard slashed full oppo homer from @LewisBrinson. Curled around RF pole

OF Nomar Mazara has dispensed with the softball leg kick.

Luke Jackson 93-97 FB tending to run up. 83-86 "curve." Looks slidery but I'm told he's overgripping/throwing his curve.

First action; N Williams hard lined 2b to LCF, Mazara softer 2b to LF, Gallo grounded 1b to right. Hooray baseball.

Here, specifically:


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For example: "The Astros are considering purchasing several of their minor league teams in an effort to improve revenue streams." Crane himself expounded on his affiliates including the Nolan Ryan-owned Corpus Christi Hooks: "We don’t own those franchises, so we’d have to step up and buy them and move them around and we’re looking at all those options. Because we feel if we control those options, it’s better for our partners and better for our fans." Really? I know his statements are more talking out loud, not executive plans, but one doesn't simply "step up" and buy a franchise like buying a car. He needs a seller, and there aren't many, perhaps not a single one.

Witness also this quote from Crane, now expunged from the Chronicle but still appearing at the end of this story in The Oklahoman: "The [Oklahoma City] Triple-A club is owned by a private equity company -- that doesn't make any sense." I hope he meant "that doesn't make any sense with what I'm trying to accomplish with the Astros," rather than "that doesn't make any sense, period." The RedHawks belong to Mandalay Sports, also owners of the hugely successful Texas-affiliated Frisco Roughriders and the low-A Dayton Dragons, who have produced 913 consecutive sellouts across 13 seasons. Mandalay seems to know what it's doing. Indeed, in response to the story, the Redhawks have assured fans they're not going anywhere (here, here, here).

Which AAA franchise might Crane purchase and move to The Woodlands? Here's the Pacific Coast League ranked by age of stadium and including distance to the parent club (if under 400 miles) and number of times in the last four years the team has ranked in the bottom four in average attendance:

Crane's problem is that the league has already undergone major upgrades in locations and physical plants. El Paso will be the permanent home to the interim Tucson Padres, who departed Portland when a stadium wasn't forthcoming. Nine of the PCL's franchises play in stadiums built in the last fifteen years, and five of those also involved relocations (El Paso, Reno, Albuquerque, Round Rock, Fresno). Colorado Springs doesn't draw well but is optimally located, as is Tacoma.

The two teams that stand out are the Las Vegas 51s and Nashville Sounds. Vegas has been the red-headed stepchild of the league for a while; none of the west coast teams wants to play there, so the franchise has awkwardly bedded down with Toronto and now the Mets. However, the 51s recently signed a 10-year lease extension on the city-owned park, so they couldn't be extricated easily.

Nashville is the one legitimate target. The Sounds' stadium isn't terribly old but lacks the revenue-generating amenities of modern facilities. The current and prior ownership have sought a new home within Nashville for a decade to no avail. As best as I can tell, the potential replacement venue still lacks a site and financing.

Moving an International League team to the Houston area is slightly trickier because it would probably require a concurrent switch to the PCL, but Nashville could easily recalibrate the leagues by moving to the IL. Here's the International League roster:

As with the PCL, candidates for relocation are lacking. Only two of the fourteen teams play in a stadium over twenty years of age. Of those, Buffalo has a solid track record and is owned by a Buffalo native, and the Paw Sox aren't going anywhere. As for teams that draw poorly, Charlotte actually plays across the border near Rock Hill, South Carolina. They should attract more fans in Charlotte proper, as should the renovated stadium between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton. In terms of attendance and return on investment, Gwinnett has been a dismal failure for the county, which rushed into a publicly financed deal. Still, they certainly aren't going anywhere and aren't going to be sold by their owner, the Atlanta Braves. Norfolk doesn't draw especially well, but I've never heard any rumors about a move or sale. In sum, I don't see a obvious suitor in the International League.

Of course, Crane isn't prohibited from relocating a team already in a relatively new stadium, if the owners are willing and the cost of breaking a lease isn't too onerous. Still, I think this exercise makes clear that moving a team to The Woodlands won't be easy.

Sleater-Kinney, "Not What You Want," from Dig Me Out, 1997

Google Earth KMZ of all Cactus League complexes.

As for that 2018 option, which vests if he pitches at least 200 innings in each of 2015-2017: That's a tall order. Here's the complete list of pitchers achieving that during 2010-2012:

Felix Hernandez -- 715.3 total innings
Justin Verlander -- 713.7
James Shields -- 680.3
CC Sabathia -- 675.0
Clayton Kershaw -- 665.3
Matt Cain -- 664.3
Cliff Lee -- 656.0
David Price -- 644.0
Cole Hamels -- 640.0
C.J. Wilson -- 629.7
Mark Buehrle -- 618.0

I hope the option doesn't create a perverse incentive down the road, such as Harrison neglecting to rest an injury properly in order to reach the vesting goal. The Rangers can, of course, exercise the option anyway, which they'll do if he's anywhere near league-average even with a meager 180 innings in 2017.

Michael Young was an astonishing 2.4 wins below replacement per the methodology of Baseball Reference (only -1.4 per Fangraphs). Here's every player I could find since WWII aged between 33-35, playing in at least 100 games and posting a WAR of -1.9 or below (that is, no more than 0.5 better than Young). They're ranked by career WAR entering the fateful season.

The three obvious takeaways:

1) They're rare. Young's 2012 was highly unusual, if not unique. Finding players with negative value is easy, but most were exceptionally bad over a shorter period of time and relieved of their duties in-season. Far less common is a slow, steady, season-long stream of sub-replacement production.

2) Many of these guys weren't outstanding to begin with, or at least not as good as they might have seemed. Young has enjoyed a better career than everyone but Simmons, the giant outlier.

3) Their subsequent careers were often non-existent, usually short, and very rarely productive. In many cases, the player's contractual situation dictated subsequent use, at least to an extent. Let's discuss:

Entering 1984, Simmons re-signed with the Brewers as a free agent for three years at $1 million per plus a team option for the same figure. He promptly produced his worst big-league season. Given what he was owed (significant for the time) and typically a very strong hitter, he was obviously going to receive ample opportunity to bounce back. So he did, if not completely: .273/.342/.402, 12 homers, very nice for a catcher. Nice enough that Milwaukee exercised its option, but the Brewers would soon trade him to Atlanta, where he lasted three seasons as a part-timer with marginal returns.

Lee produced all of 7.2 WAR for the $100 million Houston paid him during 2007-2012. As I recall, the Rangers, who'd traded for the impending free agent the previous summer, weren't especially keen on an extension, instead preferring the draft compensation. Certainly, they weren't going to match Houston's offer, widely viewed as largesse for someone of his, ah, particular athleticism and defensive prowess. Lee produced the season in question during the fourth year of his contract, and Houston was committed to two more years and a whopping $37.5 million. He recovered reasonably well in 2011 before settling into garden-variety badness last year as an Astro and Marlin. He is currently seeking an employer.

Bell, a full-time DH during his dismal 1993, became a free agent and never played again. Bell hit .258/.294/.363 after turning 30.

RF Jermaine Dye's terrible WAR was entirely related to defense. The advanced metrics never enjoyed him in the field but were especially annoyed in 2007 (-3.1 dWAR). Dye had two years and $22 million remaining and earned a chunk of it, clubbing 61 homers along with a .340 OBP in 2008-2009. He certainly could have played for at least one more year, probably more, if not for salary demands that scared off his suitors.

Jeffrey Leonard posted a .296 OBP in over 3,000 plate appearances after turning 29 but maintained a career with enough power and speed to seem impressive. He'd produced seasons of -1.2 WAR in 1985 (Age 29) and 1988 (32) before bottoming out in 1990. The free agent couldn't secure a Major League contract thereafter, settling for Kansas City's AAA squad before retiring.

Deron Johnson was a free agent after his rough 1974, not because his contract expired, but because the Red Sox released him. At the time, baseball's reserve clause still held sway. Johnson signed with the White Sox and essentially repeated his high-power, low-OBP output. Traded back to Boston, he lasted a handful of games into 1976 before his final release.

Berry signed an odd two-year deal prior to 1999 that guaranteed a flat $1 million that year and $2.35 million the next. The latter money was quite princely for a part-timer turning 34, but Berry had hit well during most of the prior six seasons. Two weeks into the next season, Berry stopped hitting, forever. Grudgingly retained as a pinch-hitter in 2001, Berry tallied only 54 plate appearances in 62 games before Milwaukee finally swallowed his contract. The remainder of his professional career consisted of one game for the Red Sox and a few for three different AAA teams.

Feliz was reasonably valuable at his peak of his defensive skills and power, compensating for his truly dreadful plate discipline. That wasn't the case by 2010, by which time Houston inexplicably threw $5 million at a player coming off a fifth consecutive season with an OPS+ of 85 or worse. The Astros traded him for a middle reliever that August. Without a contract entering 2011, he spent most of the last two seasons in indy ball. As of last August, he remained hopeful of another shot at MLB.

Womack lasted 13 seasons, earned over $20 million and posted a career WAR of 0.5. Strange that he never played for the Royals. Womack earned $6 million and was traded twice during his Age 33 debacle, after which he humbly signed with the Cards for a paltry $300,000. A career year at the plate (.307/.349/.385) spawned a two-year, $4 million deal with the Yankees, whereupon he immediately reverted to lesser form.

CF Mike Kingery gets a gold star for resurrecting his career at Age 33 after spending most of the previous five years as a bench player or in AAA. Only once did he qualify for the batting title, during strike-shortened 1994. Kingery parlayed two good seasons in Colorado into a two-year, $1.5 million deal with Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, his revival stalled immediately and he lost his starting role within two months. The Pirates released Kingery the next spring. Eating his $750,000 appears trivial, but he was their third-highest paid player at the time, under OF Al Martin ($2.4mm) and SS Kevin Elster ($1.65mm), whose signing forced Kingery from the roster. Oh, the Pirates.

Dobbs is a pinch-hitter pressed into more active duty by Miami's roster shuffling. Prior to 2012, the Marlins signed him to a two-year, $3 million deal for no good reason, whereupon he produced a season worthy of this list.

Incidentally, the only 36-year-old fitting my criteria was Kevin Bass, a true utility player who hadn't qualified for the batting title since the age of 29. His -1.9 WAR 1995 was his last.

I don't think there's a firm conclusion to draw from this exercise. I certainly wouldn't make a distinct prediction of his 2013 WAR based on this info. Young's career has been unusual; good comps are hard to find. Still, I found it interesting. If anything, the conclusion is that getting old sucks, and no one is spared.

Big Star, "Big Black Car," Third, 1974.]]>