« January 2012 | Main | March 2012 »
February 28, 2012
Org chart updated
Full 40-man roster, 19 other MLB invites, and 153 in minor-league camp. Link at upper-right.
Posted by Lucas at 07:11 PM
February 11, 2012
Weekend Photo
Wateree Lake, South Carolina, 15 June 2011
Posted by Lucas at 12:51 AM
February 10, 2012
Elvis's Contract Vs. Other Shortstops
How does Elvis Andrus's three-year, $14.4 million contract rank among his peers in money and perceived value? Andrus is among five I found in the last ten years who signed a contract of three or more years when they hit arbitration. For them and others, I've calculated each player's value two ways: 1) total pre-arbitration value (fWAR) divded by total arbitration-year money, which give an idea of the player's perceived value when signed, and 2) arb-year value divided by arb-year money, indicating how well the contract(s) paid off for the team.
I usually see player value expressed as dollars per WAR, but I'm inverting it here. Dividing actual dollars by actual WAR creates mathematical problems when WAR is at or near zero. It's not meaningful to say the Dodgers paid $93 million per win for Cesar Izturis when the components are $9.3 million and 0.1 WAR. Also, I'm ignoring players released before they could sign contracts covering all three arbitration seasons.
All lists are sorted by total salary in arbitration years. No adjustments for inflation; I'll save that for another post.
Players signing deals buying out the three arbitration years (and sometimes more) the year they hit arbitration
| Player | Pre-Arb WAR | 1st Arb Yr | Arb1 $ | Arb2 $ | Arb3 $ | Total $ | Arb1 WAR | Arb2 WAR | Arb3 WAR | Total Arb WAR | Pre-Arb WAR / Arb $ | Arb WAR / Arb $ |
| Hanley Ramirez | 17.8 | '09 | 5.50 | 7.00 | 11.00 | 23.50 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 13.3 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| Elvis Andrus | 10.1 | '12 | 3.13 | 4.80 | 6.47 | 14.40 | ? | ? | ? | ? | 0.70 | ? |
| Jose Reyes | 11.4 | '07 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.75 | 13.75 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 13.0 | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| Juan Uribe | 4.9 | '05 | 2.15 | 3.15 | 4.15 | 9.45 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| Cesar Izturis | 3.9 | '05 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 4.15 | 9.30 | 0.1 | (0.1) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.42 | 0.01 |
Andrus has the second highest salary of this group and third-highest WAR going in. Andrus also ranks in the middle of the pack in pre-arbitration WAR per dollar. Ramirez was the bell cow, obviously, signing a 6/$70 contract upon reaching arbitration. Izturis peaked in his arbitration-entering year: career bests of .288/.330/.381, 25 steals, 4.0 WAR, plus his only Gold Glove and only season with more than 600 plate appearances. In his other 11 seasons, his aggregate WAR is 1.7. Izturis and Andrus are the only players with a contract covering nothing but the three arbitration seasons. Uribe likewise had a career year as he hit arbitration (.283/.327/.506, 3.7 WAR) but at least provided some additional value later. His three-year deal included a team option.
Reyes reached his potential as hit reached arbitration and received four years plus a team option. Even with an injury-fouled 2009, he rewarded the Mets handsomely during his arbitration years and then supplied another 9.1 WAR for $20 million during 2010-2011. Notably, he's the only player in this group whose arbitration-era WAR exceeded his pre-arb years.
Players signing pre-arbitration-eligible deals of 4 or more years that buy out the three arbitration years
| Player | Pre-Arb WAR | 1st Arb Yr | Arb1 $ | Arb2 $ | Arb3 $ | Total $ | Arb1 WAR | Arb2 WAR | Arb3 WAR | Total Arb WAR | Pre-Arb WAR / Arb $ | Arb WAR / Arb $ |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 11.7 | '10 | 3.50 | 5.50 | 8.25 | 17.25 | 6.5 | 6.3 | ? | ? | 0.68 | ? |
| Bobby Crosby | 6.7 | '07 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 5.25 | 11.25 | - | 1.5 | (0.6) | 0.9 | 0.60 | 0.08 |
| Miguel Tejada | 5.7 | '01 | 2.03 | 3.63 | 5.13 | 10.78 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 11.7 | 0.53 | 1.09 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 6.6 | '08 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 4.60 | 10.25 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| Yuni. Betancourt | 4.1 | '09 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 9.00 | (2.1) | 0.9 | 0.5 | (0.7) | 0.46 | (0.08) |
| Cristian Guzman | 0.8 | '02 | 1.43 | 2.53 | 3.70 | 7.65 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 0.10 | 0.59 |
These shortstops had contracts covering their arbitration years and their final year of servitude except Crosby and Peralta, who signed five-year contracts before reaching two years of MLB service. Guzman hit a fluky .302/.337/.477 (with 3.9 WAR compared to -3.1 in his first year-plus) to induce the Twins to lock him up. Crosby was beset by injuries, never matching the production of his 2004 Rookie Of The Year campaign. Tejada hit 92 homers during his arbitration years. Andrus won't hit 92 in his career but could match Tejada's value with enough defense, OBP and baserunning prowess. And then we have Yu Bet. Negative WAR for $9 million. (He's a reason why I inverted the $/WAR formula. Otherwise, three teams combined to pay him negative $12.9 million per WAR.)
Players with all three arbitration years bought out by multiple multi-year deals.
| Player | Pre-Arb WAR | 1st Arb Yr | Arb1 $ | Arb2 $ | Arb3 $ | Total $ | Arb1 WAR | Arb2 WAR | Arb3 WAR | Total Arb WAR | Pre-Arb WAR / Arb $ | Arb WAR / Arb $ |
| Alexei Ramirez | 7.8 | '11 | 2.75 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 14.75 | 4.9 | ? | ? | ? | 0.53 | ? |
Julio Lugo might belong in this group, but I excluded players who were released during their arbitration years. Lugo signed a one-year deal with a team option entering 2003, was released that May after his arrest for assaulting his wife (an event conspicuously absent from his Wikipedia entry), then signed a similar one-plus-one with Tampa Bay and yet another one-plus-one in 2005. Ramirez inked a four-year contract with a team option in 2008. He was allowed to opt out of the final year if arbitration-eligible, which he was and did, but Chicago also held a team option, which it exercised. Ramirez then signed another four-year deal.
Players with two of three arbitration years bought out by multi-year deal
| Player | Pre-Arb WAR | 1st Arb Yr | Arb1 $ | Arb2 $ | Arb3 $ | Total $ | Arb1 WAR | Arb2 WAR | Arb3 WAR | Total Arb WAR | Pre-Arb WAR / Arb $ | Arb WAR / Arb $ |
| Stephen Drew | 4.9 | '10 | 3.40 | 4.65 | 7.75 | 15.80 | 5.1 | 1.9 | ? | ? | 0.31 | ? |
| Khalil Greene | 7.5 | '07 | 2.25 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 13.25 | 3.2 | (0.5) | (0.8) | 1.9 | 0.57 | 0.14 |
| Yunel Escobar | 12.8 | '11 | 2.90 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 12.90 | 4.3 | ? | ? | ? | 0.99 | ? |
| Jack Wilson | 1.2 | '04 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.60 | 9.85 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 8.0 | 0.12 | 0.81 |
| Marco Scutaro | 2.5 | '07 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.10 | 4.20 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 0.60 | 1.90 |
Escobar will match Reyes and Tejada as an arbitration-era bargain if he maintains his pace. Scutaro has supplied the most bang for the buck of anyone on the list.
Players with one of three arbitration years (always the last) bought out by multi-year deal
| Player | Pre-Arb WAR | 1st Arb Yr | Arb1 $ | Arb2 $ | Arb3 $ | Total $ | Arb1 WAR | Arb2 WAR | Arb3 WAR | Total Arb WAR | Pre-Arb WAR / Arb $ | Arb WAR / Arb $ |
| Jimmy Rollins | 7.4 | '04 | 2.43 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 10.28 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 14.5 | 0.72 | 1.41 |
| Jason Bartlett | 10.3 | '09 | 1.98 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 9.98 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| Alex Gonzalez | (0.9) | '02 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 2.80 | 6.20 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 5.0 | (0.15) | 0.81 |
| Ronny Cedeno | (1.0) | '09 | 0.82 | 1.13 | 1.85 | 3.80 | (0.4) | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | (0.26) | 0.55 |
Rollins has the best arbitration-era WAR and largest pre-arb to post-arb increase in WAR of the 26 I studied. Barring injury, Tulowitski will pass him this season. Cedeno might belong on the bottom list, but his 2011 deal contained a team option for 2012, so I counted that as a multi-year, even though Pittsburgh declined it.
Players who signed or arbitrated one-year deals for all three arbitration years
| Player | Pre-Arb WAR | 1st Arb Yr | Arb1 $ | Arb2 $ | Arb3 $ | Total $ | Arb1 WAR | Arb2 WAR | Arb3 WAR | Total Arb WAR | Pre-Arb WAR / Arb $ | Arb WAR / Arb $ |
| J.J. Hardy | 11.7 | '09 | 4.65 | 5.10 | 5.85 | 15.60 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| Orlando Cabrera | 5.7 | '02 | 2.40 | 3.30 | 6.00 | 11.70 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| Rafael Furcal | 7.6 | '03 | 2.20 | 3.70 | 5.60 | 11.50 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 12.3 | 0.66 | 1.07 |
| Felipe Lopez | 4.9 | '06 | 2.70 | 3.90 | 4.90 | 11.50 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| Clint Barmes | 3.2 | '09 | 1.63 | 3.33 | 3.93 | 8.88 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 0.36 | 0.61 |
| Carlos Guillen | 3.6 | '02 | 1.40 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 6.40 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 0.56 | 1.45 |
Viewing the players' pre-arbitration WAR and arbitration dollars graphically reveals a stronger relationship between the two (or fewer outliers) than I would have guessed. Andrus fits squarely on the line
As you'd expect, there's more variance among players whose arbitration years were handled in piecemeal fashion, but even those players fell into a reasonably tight range. For all shortstops, the regression formula for pre-arb WAR and total arbitration-era salary was:
Total salary = $6.13 million + $0.79 million per pre-arb WAR
(r^2 = .70, t-stat of WAR coefficient = 7.6)
For shortstops like Elvis, who signed contracts buying out their arbitration eligiblity at once, the regression was:
Total salary = $5.66 million + $0.89 million per pre-arb WAR
(r^2 = .88, t-stat of WAR coefficient = 8.2)
Andrus's expected salary via the latter formula is $14.7 million, only 2% more than his actual payday, indicating an exceptionally balanced deal for Andrus and the Rangers. Adjusting for salary inflation would alter the formula, but my sense is this contract favors neither side by enough to matter.
(Annoying technical detail: The regressions include players who signed contracts before reaching arbitration eligiblity (Tulowitski, etc.), meaning the were still accruing pre-arb WAR when locked into a long-term deal. That means their arbitration-era salaries weren't truly based on their entire pre-arb WAR. The good news is their exclusion barely changes the regressions, so I left them in.)
One reason for locking up a player is to guard against the him exceeding expectations and earning more through annual negotiations. Because of the paltry output of Izturis, Betancourt and Crosby, the locked-up group has provided substantially less arbitration-era value per dollar (average of 0.54 WAR per $million) than players who've had to negotiate or arbitrate at least one single-year deal (0.85 WAR/$million). I don't see this as evidence that locking up players is misguided. As mentioned, I've excluded shortstops who were ever released during their arb years, so that latter group is biased in favor of the most productive shortstops.
And finally, a couple of top-ten lists for shortstops who reached arbitration during the 2000s and weren't released during their arbitration years:
SS Top Ten Pre-Arb WAR | SS Top Ten Arb-Era Salaries | |||||
| Player | 1st Arb Yr | Pre-Arb WAR | Player | 1st Arb Yr | Total Arb $ | |
| Hanley Ramirez | '09 | 17.8 | Hanley Ramirez | '09 | 23.50 | |
| Yunel Escobar | '11 | 12.8 | Troy Tulowitzki | '10 | 17.25 | |
| Troy Tulowitzki | '10 | 11.7 | Stephen Drew | '10 | 15.80 | |
| J.J. Hardy | '09 | 11.7 | J.J. Hardy | '09 | 15.60 | |
| Jose Reyes | '07 | 11.4 | Alexei Ramirez | '11 | 14.75 | |
| Jason Bartlett | '09 | 10.3 | Elvis Andrus | '12 | 14.40 | |
| Elvis Andrus | '12 | 10.1 | Khalil Greene | '07 | 13.25 | |
| Alexei Ramirez | '11 | 7.8 | Yunel Escobar | '11 | 12.90 | |
| Rafael Furcal | '03 | 7.6 | Jose Reyes | '07 | 12.25 | |
| Khalil Greene | '07 | 7.5 | Orlando Cabrera | '02 | 11.70 | |
(Blue highlight = all arbitration eligiblity bought out at once)
Kirsty MacColl, "There's A Guy Works Down The Chip Shop Swears He's Elvis," BBC Television, 1981
Posted by Lucas at 12:57 PM
February 03, 2012
Weekend Photo
Hanakapi'ai Falls, Kauai, 11 January 2012.
Posted by Lucas at 11:12 PM
Hardball Times Fantasy Forecasts and Josh Hamilton
Every year, the Hardball Times publishes player forecasts for the upcoming season. They hire folks to write comments about notable players, and for the third or fourth year (I lose track), I've written about the Rangers. From me, you'll find commentary about the entire 40-man roster plus 20 others including elite prospects who've reached full-season ball (meaning nothing about #TheLegend… sorry), AAA'ers who might see Arlington this season, and other upper-level minor leaguers who deserve mention. 4,624 words, to be exact.
Admittedly, if you follow the Rangers closely, you probably don't need to know my thoughts about established players like Ian Kinsler or Mike Adams. You know what they're going to do. But, for each team, HBT hires a different writer with expertise on "his" particular team, and you can learn volumes from them. I believe HBT is previewing the comments on the "World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals" for free. I suppose I would have been the freebie if… you know. I command you to check it out.
Because it dovetails with current events, here's my take on Josh Hamilton sent to the editors on Tuesday:
Hamilton is a superstar carrying some heavy baggage. He's a strong fielder and elite hitter with two MVP-worthy seasons in four years as a Ranger. He obliterates righties and hit well on the road. His story of redemption and overt yet humble expressions of faith have elevated him to rock-star status in Texas. The downside: he's older than you might think (31 in May), and how his scorched-earth early twenties have aged his body is anyone's guess. In five years, he's missed 184 games while on the disabled list and probably played hurt in the same number. He and the Rangers have discussed a long-term extension, but Texas has to be brooding over his future value and whether to let him walk.
I don't have much to add about the current situation. It's discouraging, but it's not the end of the world. Not that I have any expertise on addiction and recovery (never been down that road myself, although I have friends who have), but it's a process, not an event. As to whether Hamilton should have held a press conference, I would have been amazed if he'd declined. Hamilton has always carried out his recovery -- and concurrently, his relationship with God -- very publicly. My feeling is his public acts of contrition help him stay on path.* If you prefer a more cynical, PR take on the situation, he has to frame the situation to his advantage as quickly as possible. People love themselves some redemption stories.
I also think this latest mishap proves the power of addiction over him. He knows taking a drink in public is going to dominate the news, jeopardize his livelihood (indeed, his life, if he really falls off the wagon), greatly embarrass himself and his family, and put his teammates and employers in an awkward situation. Yet he drinks anyway. I hope he gets back on the path.
* I know: armchair psychiatry.
Spiritualized, "The Twelve Steps," from Let It Come Down, 2001
Posted by Lucas at 07:48 PM