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January 28, 2012
Weekend Photo
Na Pali Coast, Kauai, on Honopu Ridge shot east toward Kalepi Ridge, 9 January 2012
Posted by Lucas at 02:11 PM
January 25, 2012
Darvish and Texas History
My projection for the WAR Yu Darvish needs to generate to justify his contract:
Year | $ | $/WAR | Required WAR |
2011 | -- | 4.50 | -- |
2012 | 58.0 | 4.73 | 12.28 |
2013 | 10.3 | 4.96 | 2.08 |
2014 | 10.8 | 5.21 | 2.07 |
2015 | 10.8 | 5.47 | 1.97 |
2016 | 10.8 | 5.74 | 1.88 |
2017 | 11.0 | 6.03 | 1.82 |
TOTAL | 111.7 | -- | 22.10 |
Assumptions:
- Posting fee included in full in 2012
- $800,000 annual bonus for avoiding DL achieved
- No early departure
- $4.50mm/WAR in 2011 (per Fangraphs calculations), 5% annual increases
How would 22.1 WAR by Darvish rank in Ranger history, which contains its share of elite pitchers but few who stayed long enough to generate eye-catching WAR totals?
| Name | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| Kenny Rogers | 528 | 252 | 1,909 | 4.16 | 4.25 | 31.6 |
| Charlie Hough | 344 | 313 | 2,308 | 3.68 | 4.21 | 27.1 |
| Kevin Brown | 187 | 186 | 1,278 | 3.81 | 3.71 | 23.9 |
| Bobby Witt | 276 | 269 | 1,680 | 4.85 | 4.33 | 23.4 |
| Fergie Jenkins | 197 | 190 | 1,410 | 3.56 | 3.58 | 23.1 |
| Nolan Ryan | 129 | 129 | 840 | 3.43 | 2.91 | 22.6 |
| YU DARVISH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.1? |
7th, a fair amount behind Rogers and Hough and nearly equal to the other four. Among other big contracts, Kevin Millwood (4 and $48 plus a $12 vesting option) ranks 13th at 13.8 WAR. Chan Ho Park (5 and $65) ranks a cool 55th with 3.6, same as John Butcher and Senator holdover Jackie Brown.
Texas's posting fee for Darvish was less than $4 million below its entire 2010 payroll.
Cheap Trick, "Stiff Competition," from Heaven Tonight, 1978.
Posted by Lucas at 02:08 AM
January 24, 2012
Uehara
Perhaps it's nitpicky, but I quibble with Gerry Fraley's characterization of potential trade-away Koji Uehara as "a victim of the numbers game in [Texas's] bullpen." Let's check those numbers.
First, the closer and setup guys:
Joe Nathan,
Alexi Ogando (presumably),
Mike Adams.
Next, everyone else on the 40 with MLB experience:
Scott Feldman,
Mark Lowe,
Yoshi Tateyama,
Mark Hamburger,
Michael Kirkman,
Cody Eppley.
The other contenders are 40-man virgins Martin Perez and Neil Ramirez, non-40 prospect Tanner Scheppers and NRIs Mitch Stetter and Sean Green. The only lefties are Kirkman, Perez and Stetter.
Outside the top three, there's no one about whom you can say: "He has to be in this bullpen." When on his game, Uehara ranks easily among Texas's best bullpen arms. Despite middling velocity, he owns one of the best K/BB ratios on the planet.
Uehara isn't being squeezed out of a deep bullpen. This is about him. He appears to be held in such disfavor that Texas isn't interested in seeing if he can regain his form in Spring Training. The homers -- an ungodly one per ten batters faced -- and his self-professed lack of confidence as a Ranger have transformed him from one of baseball's best relievers to a salary dump.
Posted by Lucas at 01:26 PM
January 23, 2012
Updates
40-man roster revitalized. Org and draft tables updated. Rule 5 tables uploaded. See links at top-right.
More content on the way. Should and will post more often. It's not like I'm pulling a boat uphill.
Posted by Lucas at 11:54 PM
January 01, 2012
Happy New Year!
Ranger, Colby, Jack, 24 December 2011
Big Star, "Watch the Sunrise," from #1 Record, 1972.
Posted by Lucas at 01:15 AM